Tag: race preview

Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 Preview; Le Puy-en-Velay -> Romans-sur-Isère

Rest-day Recap

An exciting breakaway day that was a great mix of tactics and strength! One of our picks Tony Martin did exactly what I thought he would, but unfortunately there were enough team-mates and motivated riders behind to keep him on some kind of leash before the final climb. Starting it with only 1’30 was never going to be enough for the German, and he was caught ~3km from the top. The group that was ahead then reformed on the descent, and a perfectly timed attack saw Mollema slip clear, quickly building up a big advantage. The stage was over from that point, despite the efforts of Ulissi and Gallopin who finished on the podium, but also Roglic and Barguil too.

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The Dutchman held off to take his first ever Tour win. A great result that I’m sure a lot of people would be happy with, he seems like a top bloke!

As for the GC battle, we nearly had a very exciting stage with Froome dropped on a descent due to a mechanical. However, some good pacing from his team and work from the Brit himself, he made it back to the favourites group. Some people lamented the lack of attacking from Bardet etc once Froome was isolated, but the finish wasn’t too great for that as it was more of a power descent rather than a technical one, on which the Frenchman would shine. Furthermore, Landa would have been able to follow and mark them out of it anyway. Unless of course they wanted to drag him to the line!

Anyway, with another rest day in the legs the riders will be prepared for the final week of racing. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for them tomorrow.

The Route

A day for the sprinters?

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The day starts with a long drag and the Cat-3 climb of the Côte de Boussoulet. Officially 4.5km at 6.3%, it’s not too tough a climb but the riders will be climbing from the gun. Taking that into consideration, you could argue that the climb is 20.5km at 2.87%. A real leg sapper!

Once over the top the riders will face something that resembles a plateau for the next 50km but isn’t really at all considering the uncategorised climbs and descents. As they reach the 70km mark though they’ll descent almost for the following 40km, aside from a few kick ups and false flats that have been thrown into the mix.

Reaching “flat-ground” at 55km to go, it will be interesting to see how big of an advantage the break has and who is chasing behind. Will they catch them before the finish?

Speaking of the finish, it’s not exactly a simple run-in either, with the final kilometre being very technical!

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Three roundabouts in the last kilometre could make for an “interesting” end to the day. Now a tradition on tough run-ins, here is my Preview by Pictures™ of the finish.

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Roundabout #1 sees the riders head pretty much straight on, taking a soft right-hand turn. However, the road does narrow through the kink of the roundabout and on exit so positioning near the front will be important.

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The road widens again about 10m after the exit of the roundabout but those at the head of the peloton will want to drift from right to left before Roundabout #2. As you can see, once again some road furniture will force the riders looking for the quickest line into one side of the road, before they take the left at the roundabout. A small traffic island will keep the riders in the left hand lane as they exit, which is where you want to be for the next part of the course.

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As the road bends round to the left, taking and holding the inside line will be the fastest route. Doing so will also force any opposition riders to come around the outside, wasting energy.

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Just before the final roundabout (at roughly 450m to go) the riders will have to be wary as the road narrows once again.

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Being first into the final roundabout will be key. According to the graphic above they will take the right-hand lane, before funneling through another narrow passage on the exit.

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From there it is roughly 300m to the finish line!

How will the stage pan out?

Looking at the weather forecast there is a chance of crosswinds tomorrow which might entice some GC teams into action, but a lot of the route looks protected by trees etc so I can’t see it having a big impact. The only area that might be dangerous is the 9km section between Châteauneuf-sur-Isère and Alixan as the road looks like this.

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With a tailwind run-in then it is possible for any gaps that are created to be held.

However, I think it will be another case of the stage hunters/breakaway experts against the sprinters.

With the start of the stage being on a long drag, we could see Sunweb try to take control of the peloton, setting a fierce tempo in an effort to drop Kittel. The issue with that tactic is that once the opening 20km are over with, they then have to continue that for the rest of the stage and I’m not sure they have the firepower capable of doing so. Furthermore, if Kittel gets dropped then I think we’ll see the majority of the Quick-Step team (bar Brambilla and Martin) fall back to help pace the German back to the peloton.

The opening 2/3rds of the day are quite hard to keep the race under control as well, considering it is up or down a lot of the time. It looks ideal territory for a break to form! Matthews may fancy his chances of sneaking into the move but if that happens he’ll be marked out of it by Quick-Step’s powerhouses and I can’t see it getting away.

So will the pace be so high that it stops the breakaway from forming for a long time, almost guaranteeing a sprint finish? Or will the Sunweb/QS battle end up cancelling itself out and we’ll see a large group go up the road and stay away?

In my opinion, if we get a sprint, Kittel will be there. Does Kittel win? Probably. But on a run-in like this, there is the possibility he could be beaten by a good lead-out from another team. With QS and Sunweb working all day it will leave their squads depleted for the finale, and opens the door for another team to take control.

This leads me onto my two picks* for the stage, both can win from different situations, but they’re both from the same team…

*Only going to mention two riders as I’ve rambled on enough anyway!

A Different Dimension?

Steve Cummings.

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The British champion found himself in the breakaway on Stage 12 but was swallowed up by the GC favourites as they battled out for stage victory. A rider that picks a few stages per race to target, tomorrow’s rolling stage looks suited to him. Normally an expert at timing his attack, he will no doubt attempt to slip off the front of the break going into the final 20km. Will he be strong enough to hold the rest of them off? Given how easily he rode away from De Gendt on Stage 12, I think he has the power to do it! It’s two years since he won his first Tour stage and having taken a stage last year as well, he’ll be hoping to make it three Tour’s in a row.

Reinardt Janse van Rensburg.

I have been very impressed with the South African champion so far this race, and he seems to have really taken a step up in the lead-outs. Some of the turns he has done for EBH have been incredible. A rider that could go in the break, he has a chance of winning the sprint from that situation. However, I can also envisage him doing a “Pöstlberger” if we get a sprint finish. With the depleted resources of Sunweb and QS after their stressful day, Dimension Data are the team that I think will take control of the sprint. Due to the technical run in, the riders will more than likely be in single file heading into the final roundabout. Now, it is a bit sly, but if RJVR is leading out EBH (so many acronyms!) then the Norwegian could let the wheel go and give the South African a gap, essentially blocking the road behind. In the panic that ensues, van Rensburg will ride away from everyone, winning the day á la Pöstlberger. Alternatively, EBH may even re-pay van Rensburg’s hard work over the past few stages and lead him out. He’s no slouch either, having just lost to Degenkolb in a similar, uphill drag sprint back at the start of the year.

Oh, did I mention it was Mandela Day as well?

Prediction

I’ll go for the poetic win for the South African champion on Mandela Day.

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Betting

Already tweeted out the selections before;

1pt WIN Cummings @ 33/1 with most bookmakers

0.5pt EW van Rensburg @ 250/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes (would take 150s)

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 Preview; Saint-Girons -> Foix

Today’s Recap

A break formed relatively quickly, only after 20km of so or racing but they were never given more than 6:30 of an advantage from a Sky led peloton.

With the move caught on the Peyresourde, it looked as if we were going to see some GC fireworks before the top but the group whittled down to around 10 and that was it. No one else was dropped and the riders found themselves approaching the final 500m together.

Bennett launched an attack but was brought back easily by Landa, before Bardet and Aru sprung up the inside. Froome wasn’t able to follow and the Frenchman held on for a great victory.

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Uran did well to get up for second while the Italian National Champion took third and moves into yellow for tomorrow’s stage.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

Arguably the most talked about stage of this year’s whole Tour. Taking a page out of what we’ve seen at the Giro and Vuelta recently, tomorrow’s route is short and sharp.

 

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We have three Cat-1 climbs packed into 100km of racing which should surely lead to a fast pace from the gun! With that being said, there are 25.5km of false-flat before we hit the Col de Latrape for the hopeful escapees to try to get up the road.

Latrape isn’t a long climb (at only 5.6km) but averaging 7.3% it is fairly steep and will act as a nice warm-up for what’s to come. I wonder if we’ll see any early attacks on the climb? A short descent follows which isn’t too technical, before the toughest climb of the day.

The Col d’Agnes comes in at 10km long, averaging 8.2%.

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It’s actually hardest right at the bottom, with the opening 3kms averaging 9.2%. Nice and explosive! From there it gets “easier” but if a team takes it up or a GC rider attacks early, there is a good chance the race gets blown to bits. Given the short nature of the stage, that looks like a strong possibility!

Once over the top we have a long descent (almost 20km) before the next climb. The descent itself starts off very technical and we could see AG2R attack here like on Stage 9. It does ease off later on but the damage could already be done.

The Mur de Pérguère averages 7.9% for 9.3km but that doesn’t really tell the whole story…

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I did wonder why it was given the honour of being called “Mur” but it made sense once I saw the profile. The opening 6kms of the climb are fairly straightforward compared to what the riders have faced earlier in the day, only averaging 5.55%. However, it is the final 3.3km that will really test the riders legs – averaging a very painful ~12.5%!

The riders will then descend pretty much all the way to the finish, although it does get flatter in the last 10km and is more of a shallow descent. Will we see a solo rider come to the line or it will be a reduced sprint to the line?

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With a technical run-in, I certainly hope it’s the former!

How will the stage pan out?

It should be a GC stage but you can never be 100% sure. I thought the GC teams would let the break get away today, with one eye on tomorrow’s stage but Sky almost double-bluffed everyone and closed it down.

We’ve seen at the Giro and Vuelta that these type of stages are very explosive and entice aggressive racing from the GC contenders. No doubt some of the teams will try to get lieutenants up the road to hopefully help later on, but considering everyone will be trying to do that, then it could be hard! It might be another day where a 40-rider “break” goes but never gets more than 2 minutes or so.

The issue is that with no climb right at the start, and no summit finish, some of the GC riders might not fancy their chances. I guess they’ll hope that the battle to get into the break is so fierce that they’ll be within touching distance on the first climb.

It is Bastille Day so no doubt we’ll see numerous French riders try their hand throughout the day. Whether that be those looking to get in the break and hopefully win the stage that way, or someone like Bardet who will hope for a big GC fight.

We’ve not had a French winner on Bastille Day though since David Moncoutié back in 2005 though!

Like Natalie Imbruglia, I’m Torn.

Do the other GC teams sense enough of a weakness in the Sky came to try to isolate Froome, taking advantage of his “bad legs” that he had today. It will be a tough stage for Astana to control so no doubt they’ll be happy to see the break go. However, I think AG2R/QS/Orica will all want the race controlled.

Bardet is obviously on stellar form at the moment and will be wanting to go as well as he can while he’s flying. I imagine they’ll place a few riders in the break but he will attack on the middle climb of the day, hoping to bridge to them. The same can be said for Yates and Orica who always seem to get their tactics right on days like these.

Candidates

As I’ve waffled on already and may need to rush this a bit before work, I’ll just list two riders and how they might win tomorrow.

Louis Meintjes.

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After suffering on stages 5 and 9, the South African coped a lot better today (finishing 5th on the stage) and like a few others seems to be getting better just now. At almost 5 minutes down on the overall, he’s not an immediate threat for the big guns and could be given some leeway to attack from a reduced group that might be heading to the finish together. There is also a chance that he could sneak himself into an early breakaway and take the stage from there. Finishing 3rd on the very attacking final stage at the Dauphiné there is a chance he repeats that feat here, if not going better.

Mikel Landa.

He looked ominously strong today. Like, just ridiculously strong, it barely looked like he was breathing going up the final climb. I was more out of breath watching the stage than he was riding it! He could have closed Bennett down much quicker but almost had to rein himself in not to put Froome in the red. After pulling at the front and moving over to the side to let his leader attack, he still had enough in the tank to get back up to speed and finish 4th. Not bad considering the head-start he gave everyone else! Although it is unlikely as Sky tend to take the approach of “all for their leader”, I would be getting Landa to attack tomorrow if I was DS. If Froome isn’t great just now, it is much better to have two riders close to the top of the GC going into latter part of the race so they can play the numbers game. He is the one rider I can see attacking everyone on the final climb and holding on to the finish. Will Sky be willing to let him do that? Probably not, but you never know. Will Landa listen to them either way? That’s also debatable.

Prediction

In an act of defiance that turns out to be a great race strategy for Sky, the mercurial Spaniard takes the win.

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Froome recovers from today’s efforts and manages to mark everyone else out of chasing, allowing Landa a good time gap to put him back into overall contention.

Betting

1pt WIN Landa @ 33/1 (various bookmakers)

0.5pt EW Meintjes @ 125/1 Coral/Ladbrokes (who are paying 4 places)

 

Thanks as always for reading and apologies the “contenders” section is shorter than normal! Who do you think will win? Will we finally see a French rider win on Bastille day? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 Preview; Pau -> Peyragudes

Today’s Recap

Zzzzzzzzzz.

I’m all for having sprints in the Tour as every rider needs some type of terrain to showcase their talents, but I’m definitely glad we don’t have another one tomorrow.

With regards to what the other sprint teams were doing today, I’m not angry, I’m just disappointed. No guts or courage to try something different. Instead Katusha and Lotto Soudal were happy to help pull all day and they were duly rewarded with 12th and 7th place finishes respectively.

Of course Kittel won again, he’s just too good at this moment!

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Groenewegen finished fast to come home second, with Boasson Hagen rewarding his strong lead-out with a third place. A good day in one sense as I tweeted out to back EBH in-play as I thought the technical run in might suit his team and it did, but I would loved to have seen something more gutsy from the sprint teams.

A big “fair-play” though must go to Bodnar who held off the bunch for oh so long, only to be caught within sight of the finish line.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

After three rest-days, we finally have a stage that might entice some action.

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A long day out in the saddle, the riders will have to contend with some rolling roads for the first 55km of the day before they hit the first categorised climb. However, it won’t really be until after 120km that things get serious. The Col de Menté averages a very steep 8.1% for 6.9km. This is where we could see some of the GC teams come to the fore, maybe hoping to apply some early pressure but I think that’s unlikely. Instead, it is more likely to be where the break splits up, especially if we have a larger group.

Once over the summit the riders will tackle 10km of descent, along with 10km of valley roads before the road starts rising again up the Port de Balès. Officially 11.7km at 7.7%, the riders will actually be climbing for ~20km at 5.7%.

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Considering the riders descend almost all the way from the summit, there are only a few flat sections, to the foot slopes of the Col de Peyreseurde, it will be interesting to see if any riders attack early.

The Peyreseurde itself is shorter than Balès and is a lot more consistent, making it more suited for riders who are able to get themselves into a steady pace. Will we see some attacks? I sure hope so and I think we will, it’s just a case of when?!

The descent from the Peyreseurde is very straight forward, I’m sure the riders will be glad to know that, and they’ll hope to carry as much speed as possible into the tough final 3kms. A final kilometre at 13% is a brutal way to end the stage and with all the climbing that comes before riders can blow up massively here and lose a lot of time.

How will the stage pan out?

A classic 50/50 stage where the breakaway could stay away, but there is also a chance that the GC teams control it for the final few climbs and hope to get some bonus seconds.

There are faults with both plans though.

Firstly for the break, it will no doubt be a massive fight to get into the move and I wouldn’t be surprised if we only see the elastic snap after an hour of racing. The issue that lies here is that it will more than likely be strong rouleurs who make the move, with the flatter start being difficult for climbers to get in. No doubt there will be a few who sneak their way into it but it will certainly be tough. The steep gradients of the climbs make it hard for a rouleur to win so in a cruel twist of fate, while the break might be easier for them to make it into, it will be harder for them to win!

There are obviously riders in the peloton who can do both and they’ll be eyeing up this stage.

As for the GC riders going for stage victory; it depends on Sky’s attitude. If they are in their usual controlling mood then there is a good chance we’ll see a GC winner. Froome looks strong just now and is growing into the race but will he feel ready enough to attack the stage? I’m not sure. It is an easy day for Sky to control if they want to, with the tough climbs coming in the second half of the stage.

The crashes of Bardet and Fuglsang today might have a negative impact on the GC riders willingness to go for the win.

Furthermore, with a crazy stage coming the following day, I think we’ll see the break take it tomorrow. So time to play everyone’s favourite game again…

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Candidates

Names in hat time, so I’ll highlight a few possible contenders like always.

Andrew Talansky.

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One of those riders who might not be allowed away if he is to protect team-leader Uran, but on the other hand he could be sent up the road to help later on. If the break gets a big lead then Talansky is a strong enough climber to take the win.

Diego Ulissi.

The UAE rider has been very quiet so far this race, maybe saving his energy to attack on a stage? The steep gradients tomorrow should suit the punchy Italian and he is in relatively good form, finishing 2nd at the recent Italian National Championships. Although the length of the climbs might be tough, but he has went well in hard stages at the Giro in the past. Meintjes has struggled a bit on GC so far, and I think UAE will allow Ulissi to go on the offensive tomorrow, will he take his chance?

Fabio Felline.

Another rider who hasn’t been able to take his own chances so far due to having to help team-leader Contador. Yet, the Spaniard hasn’t been great this Tour (as was almost expected) and I think we’ll see Trek adopt an aggressive approach to the rest of the race. Felline isn’t known for his mountain climbing, but like Ulissi he is good on the punchy stuff. He’s a strong rider who’s having a great season and a good result tomorrow would take that even further.

Philippe Gilbert.

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Talking about riders who’ve had great seasons…Gilbert has had an incredible 2017 so far and he is surely targeting a Tour stage win at some point. He was active in the break on Planche des Belles Filles and was actually the last man standing, putting in a very impressive display of climbing. Tomorrow is a whole different ballgame but he is certainly not a rider to be discounted. Like many others, it all depends if he’s given the freedom and doesn’t have to work for his team leader. He did a lot of work today pulling at the front of the bunch, stretching his legs for a good hit-out tomorrow! Or that’s what I’m making of it anyway. 😜 A wild card given the climbing talent here but you never know.

Prediction

Break stays away by around a minute and Diego Ulissi takes a memorable victory.

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Betting

0.4pt EW Ulissi @ 100/1 (Boyles – 4 places)

0.25pt EW Talansky @ 150/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/PP/Betfair)

0.25pt EW Felline @ 150/1 (Boyles – 4 places)

0.1pt EW Gilbert @ 300/1 (PP/BF)

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will the break survive all the way or will we see a GC battle for the stage win? I’m just hoping for a good day’s racing! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 Preview; Eymet -> Pau

Today’s Recap

Offredo made the break but was only joined by one other rider (Gesbert) so it was doomed from the outset really! At least my breakaway radar is working better than it has over the past few months.

Much to my bemusement though, several of the other sprint teams decided to help chase the two-man move all day. They even did all of the work in the closing kilometres. However, even that didn’t stop the inevitable and Kittel managed to take his 4th stage win of the race.

 

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It’s just too easy for the fantastically haired German!

Degenkolb did very well to finish second and is showing good signs of recovery after the crash last week. Yet, all he did was follow Kittel’s wheel. He never looked like winning. Maybe that’s a good tactic for anyone hoping to finish on the podium in the next few sprint stages! Groenewegen finally came good to get his GT podium finish, and he actually hit the highest speed out of all the sprinters. But again, he was nowhere near the win. Will that change tomorrow?

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another almost pan-flat day that looks ideal for the sprinters.

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The riders travel almost directly south from Eymet to Pau, which would make it a stage that could be affected by crosswinds if the direction/strength of the wind is correct. We will get some 18-20km/h Westerly winds at points throughout the stage but a lot of the route is well protected by trees etc, so I can’t see it coming to anything substantial.

As for the end of the stage itself, the final few kilometres are ever so slightly downhill which should make for a fast finish.

It’s not exactly the easiest of run ins either…

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Four roundabouts to contend with in the last 5km could make for a dicey stage. However, I don’t really expect the first two to have that much of an impact as they come too far out and there is a lot of straight road afterwards for teams to organise themselves again.

The roundabout that comes at just before 2km to go should see the riders funnelled around the left-hand side.

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It’s quite a wide road so there shouldn’t be too many difficulties but you never know! The riders will then take a slight left kink in the road before charging towards the Flamme Rouge.

Just before the flag though, they’ll face a tough left-hand turn which will no doubt string things out.

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The second roundabout you see on the profile above isn’t difficult at all as the riders are able to smooth out the corner, and should be able to go at full speed.

The turn onto Rue Michelet at ~600m to go is more difficult than it appears though, opposite to how the roundabout initially seems.

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It’s almost an unsighted turn and is definitely greater than 90-degrees initially before it straightens back out again. A few riders could be caught out here. I guess it will all depend on where the barriers are placed in the car park as the road/run off from the turn can be made wider.

They’ll then face a 500m straight to the finish.

How will the stage pan out?

Another stage that looks like it will be a sprint, but surely the other sprint teams don’t help the QS chase at all?! They made it oh so easy for them today by happily putting a man up to share the work load and that got them nowhere. Lotto and Katusha were the ones most willing to chase and that got them 12th and 5th respectively. Not great!

Do they do the exact same tomorrow? Because if so, they pretty much hand Kittel another victory. I wouldn’t and in fact, I would be looking to put a rider in the breakaway to make QS work for it harder. Maybe that’s just me though.

I said in my stage 7 preview that we might see a breakaway survive on a sprint stage once Kittel has 5 wins to his name but I think there is a chance tomorrow could be that day.

For that to happen though, the break will need to be strong and certainly be more than just two riders like we had today. It also requires the sprint teams to “grow some balls” so to speak and let QS do all of the work at the head of the peloton. Katusha/Lotto/Cofidis etc aren’t winning stages while doing some work, so why is that going to suddenly change tomorrow if they do the exact same?

At this point I’m practically pleading with the sprint team’s DS to try to do something different and animate the race.

We always seem to have a breakaway winner in Pau!

However, it will need some strong rouleurs if it is to stay away so…

Breakaway Candidates

Guillaume van Keirsbulk.

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A rider who I will always have a soft spot for after his win in Le Samyn earlier this year, the Belgian has already spent a day off the front of the race. Wanty are keen to animate these flat stages and he would be a suitable choice for tomorrow. A strong TTer with a decent kick, he can’t be underestimated.

Tim Wellens.

Bit of a wildcard one this as it requires Lotto to play an aggressive stage. He’s not been great so far this Tour and expended a lot of energy on some of the breakaway days in the mountains all for nothing. Nonetheless, he would still be a good rider to have up the road and put some power down.

Vegard Stake Laengen.

The tall Norwegian has already made the break once before this race and UAE seem keen to try to get riders up the road. With Swift still not looking 100% they could well go for that tactic again and get some TV exposure. A good rider to have in the break if you are in the break yourself as he provides a nice wind break!

Sylvain Chavanel.

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He’s not been as active in this Tour as I expected, only making one break of note so far. Direct Energie have no hope in the sprints but with a stage win already, the pressure is off for them at least. He might sense that the sprint teams don’t want to chase tomorrow and use his experience to seize an opportunity.

Prediction

With that all being said, no doubt we’ll still see this man romp home to victory.

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Oh how I’d love to be wrong!

Betting

No value in any of the sprinters, but considering I managed a profit today (albeit a measly 0.4pts) thanks to an in-play bet, I’m going to waste that on the breakers tomorrow.

0.1pt on them all to win, all with Bet365;

Van Keirsbulk @ 500/1

Wellens @ 400/1

Laengen @ 400/1

Chavanel @ 250/1.

 

Thanks as always for reading and as usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Can anyone stop Kittel? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 Preview; Dole -> Station des Rousses

Today’s Recap

Well, that was close, 6mm or 0.0003 seconds to be precise!

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Kittel just edged out Boasson Hagen to take his third win of the race. An incredibly tough photo finish, I couldn’t split them when looking at the images post race initially. The jury eventually came to that conclusion, much to my relief.

Matthews finished fast to get up for third, while Démare disappointed down in 11th and consequently hands the green jersey over to Kittel.

With two long, drab stages (apart from the finishes) out the way, let’s turn our attention to what the riders will face tomorrow.

The Route

A day with three categorised climbs that get progressively harder throughout the stage.

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The fight to get into the break will be on tomorrow and there’s a good chance a break won’t go until we get to the first uncategorised climb of the day at around 28km. Averaging just over 3% for 9km, we should see the strong men of the bunch escape here.

With the climb not being too tough, there could be a mixture of climbers and strong rouleurs who get up the road. I wonder if any sprinters will try to escape and go for the intermediate points?!

From there, the break will face roughly 60km of rolling roads before the opening categorised climb of the day: the Col de la Joux. Not a tough climb and it should be of no real outcome in the race.

Next on the agenda is the Côte de Viry at 7.6km long and averaging 5.2% it is slighty harder going than the Joux. Again though, it is more than likely too far out to be the scene of any action but some in the break might disagree! A few more short uncategorised climbs follow before a descent into the valley and the start of the climb with the longest name ever; Montée de la Combe de Laisia Les Molunes.

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Another climb that’s not too tough in terms of gradients, it is more of a slog than anything else. We only have two kilometres that average 8% or more, one of which comes right before the end. In fact, the final 4kms of the climb are the toughest on average. A perfect launchpad for a strong climber to make a move?

Once over the top, the terrain peaks and troughs all the way to Station des Rousses. A solo rider can certainly make it all the way to the line but they’ll hope for a lack of co-operation behind in the chasing group(s).

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The road does twist and turn in the final few kilometres which will make it very tactical if we have a small group come to the line.

How will the stage pan out?

We could see some GC action but I think that’s very unlikely, as the climbs aren’t tough enough for that and I’m sure that most of the overall contenders will have one eye on stage 9.

In fact, I think Sky might be happy to let the break go even if it contains someone high up on GC, just so they can have a rest the following day. Although to be fair, it’s not like they’ve done a lot of work over the past few days with the sprinters teams pulling for most of the stages.

Yet, not having to control the bunch on stage 9 will be a big bonus for them so with that being said, it is a definite breakaway day.

Time to play everyone’s favourite game…

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Contenders

There are several riders who could potentially compete on a stage like tomorrow’s so I’m not going to bother naming loads of people. Like normal, I’ll just name a few riders who have a chance. In fact, where I’d normally name 4, I’ll just go for two tomorrow!

Thibaut Pinot.

 

After a fairly successful Giro where he won a stage and finished 4th on GC, the FDJ rider comes here solely to hunt stages. I had a chuckle to myself while watching stage 5 and the ITV commentators were acting concerned, saying that was his race over etc, when he drifted out the back of the GC group. I’m fairly certain however, that it was just a ploy to lose some time so that he is given more leeway to go on the attack and actually be allowed to get away. Unlike some riders who are closer on GC than he currently is, Pinot could still be viewed as a threat if he was 4 minutes down on the overall at the moment. Thanks to some casual riding towards the end of today’s stage though, he now finds himself 10 minutes down. Plenty of leeway to get away!

As for the suitability of the stage itself, the climbs should be of no difficulty for someone of his talent. There will be few able to follow him if he’s on a good day. Furthermore, he has the advantage of being a solid TT rider so he can hold off a chasing group all the way to the line, but if not, he has a fast sprint from a reduced group of climbers.

If he makes the move he will be one of the favourites.

Alexis Vuillermoz.

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After missing the first few months of the season due to injury, the AG2R rider returned to racing at the end of March. He’s not been as prominent as he has been in previous seasons but a win in GP Plumelec highlights that there is some form and good legs there. More often than not finding himself working for Bardet these days, I think he might be given some freedom from the team tomorrow to do his own thing.

The reason I say that is because the route goes through his birthplace (Saint-Claude), passing his home. He’ll have massive home support and we often see riders getting up the road in their “home” stages. He’ll know the final climb like the back of his hand and the “easy” average gradient of it should suit him. Not the best on really long climbs, he’ll hope that he can follow the wheels of those better than him and beat them in a sprint. Something he is certainly capable of!

Prediction

Hmm, as much as I would love for Vuillermoz to win I’ll go for Pinot to take the stage!

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Betting

After today’s success, we have a few points to throw around on breakaway stages over the next week. Which is good as they are most often the most frustrating days to have a punt on. I nailed my colours to the mast before on Twitter…

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You can still get them at 100 and 28 respectively which I would take.

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win the breakaway lottery tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 6 Preview; Vesoul -> Troyes

Today’s Recap

A fast day in the saddle. the race finished a good bit ahead of schedule. With a strong break going from the gun, we easily could have seen them build up a 6-8 minute advantage. However, BMC had other ideas and began setting tempo at the front of the bunch early on, never allowing the advantage to go much further north than 3 minutes.

Once onto Belles Filles itself, Kwiatkowski took over and set a terrific tempo for Sky, resulting in riders slowly being churned out the back of the peloton. Yet, it was such an infernal pace that it put his own team in difficulty. Landa and Henao never managed to put their nose in the wind at all, and it was left to Nieve to take over.

Aru sensed the Spaniard was slowing and attacked with 2.2km to go. A foolish move considering Sky’s ability to drag those attacks back in the past, except he just kept getting further away. Thomas closed down an attack from Yates, but wasn’t able to offer too much more after that so Froome himself went on the offensive. Only Porte, Bardet and Martin could follow the yellow-jersey elect, but after some looking around the group behind caught up again with around 800m to go.

By then though, Aru had the stage in the bag, taking a great victory for the blog! And himself too I guess…

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What really impressed me was the gutsiness of his attack, but more importantly the way he kept driving to the line, only posting up to celebrate once over the finish.

Behind, Martin launched a terrific attack to gain time on the rest and finish second on the day. While Froome managed to pip Porte to third. I’m sure the latter will be disappointed after his team did most of the work today.

There’s still a long way to go and plenty of mountains left, just not mountain top finishes, but it is promising that it isn’t going to be a complete two-horse race.

The GC riders will take a back foot tomorrow with the sprinters having another chance at glory. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for them.

The Route

A fairly benign and long day in the saddle at 216km – it is a typical transitional stage!

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Nothing major to note until we get towards the finish in Troyes. I got mildly excited when looking at the weather forecasts as we do have some 25m/h crosswinds early in the stage but they die down once we get to 50km to go. So we won’t see any echelon action!

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The final 5km gets progressively more technical. Aside from a roundabout at around 5.5km to go, the lead-outs will be able to organise themselves and we’ll no doubt see a big fight to get to the tight turn just before 2km to go first.

From there, the road slowly bends around to the right. Holding the inside line will force opposition teams to take the outside route, elongating their own run in, and potentially tiring them out/ruining their timing.

More crucially though, it is important to be at the front going under the flamme rouge as things will get messy.

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Just as they pass under the kite the riders will be faced with this roundabout where they will be funnelled around the right-hand side. Well, according to the road book anyway.

The riders will then have to contend with another roundabout at what appears to be ~250m to go.

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However, it is not as bad as it sounds, with it really only being a slight kink in the road. The worst part though is that the road narrows from three lanes to two and some riders might find themself running out of space!

Contenders

With some of the key sprinters now gone from the race or injured, we should in theory have a safer run-in as fewer people will be competing for the win.

Démare has had the best/most consistent results out of all the sprinters so far with a second place and a win to his name. He was somewhat lucky to get away with cutting across Bouhanni on Stage 4 but there is no doubt he is one of the strongest here. He has a lead-out train long/strong enough to control it in the final 2kms but they’ve been disappointing so far. Can they turn it around tomorrow and see Démare take a second win?

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Kittel was never in it on Stage 4. Positioned too far back, he never got close to the top 10 of the race before it was decimated by the crashes. Another lead-out that was fairly disappointed, with a team as good as QuickStep, you would expect them to turn that around tomorrow. The crazy on sprint on stage 2 shows the German has form, but will he be in a position to show that again?

With Cavendish and Sagan now gone, it certainly opens up the sprints more and in theory should make them less chaotic as we’ll have fewer lead-out trains fighting for position.

Kristoff and his Katusha team were keen to do some work on Stage 4 but possibly took it up too early. The Norwegian came away with a second place but I’m not too sure what we can fully read into it. I’m still not convinced he’s as strong as he was in 2015 but with Zabel he has a very good last man he can trust. Another podium is a possibility.

Greipel picked up another podium on Stage 4 but he seemed to be really struggling today and was one of the first riders dropped. Ill? Or was he just using his experience and saving as much energy as possible?

Bouhanni is one that interests me a bit for tomorrow. Clearly riding himself back into a bit of form after his crash in Yorkshire, he was unlucky to be blocked by Démare on Stage 4. The technical final kilometre should suit the brave Frenchman and he does have the speed to compete. Will the win be too much? Only 1.19% (or 1/84) of the previous 4 Tour stages have been won by a rider riding at Pro-Conti level.

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Credit to @padsbets for that stat.

Groenewegen, Colbrelli and Matthews will be close and fighting for the top 5 but they should get a top 10.

Prediction

Kittel will return to winning ways!

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But I think we’ll see Bouhanni sneak onto the podium, the finish looks good for him. Just need Démare to stay out of his way!

Betting

Not willing to risk Kittel at his odds, so I’m once again going with a better value play on Bouhanni.

1pt EW Bouhanni @ 16/1 with SkyBet. (Would take 14s lowest elsewhere).

After two successful H2Hs in a row, I’ll play the profit up for tomorrow. The 3.6pt was turned into 7.92pt today so I’ll put…

4pt Bouhanni to beat Greipel @5/4 with WillHill.

Risky, but I like the Frenchman’s trajectory.

 

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will it be an easy win for Kittel or will someone else challenge him? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 Preview; Vittel -> La Planche des Belles Filles

Today’s Recap

I thought the Tour was supposed to be the more mundane and less drama packed of the three Grand Tours…

A quiet day quickly turned into a manic one in the final 10km as the fight for position was crazy. Riders were swerving all over the road and the peloton should have taken heed when the Astana rider (I think it was Grivko) came up to the front to berate Dimension Data for sweeping across the road and causing a concertina effect on the bunch. Somewhat of an irony in the way they sweeped across the road considering what happened later.

Once onto the technical run in we had a fairly large pile up at just over 1km to go. Oddly enough though, it was on a straight-ish bit of road. Then, we had the well documented crash between the remaining sprinters that saw Cavendish go down and take out Swift and Degenkolb.

The result of it all is that Sagan has now been DQ’d from the race for causing danger to his colleagues. While he did act dangerously and has previous (just ask Vantomme), I think it is a bit absurd that he is thrown out from the whole thing. Disqualified from the stage would possibly have been a “fair” punishment, but Cavendish knew the risk of trying to come up the inside. The whole thing is just a mess really!

#TourdeFarce

Démare ended up taking a strong victory but he himself swerved in front of Bouhanni a bit, so that could even be disputed as an infringement.

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Kristoff and Greipel rounded out the podium.

With that now over with, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

An easy-ish stage that gets tougher as the day progresses.

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The riders will face some small uncategorised rises in the first half of the stage but nothing too substantial. However, not long after the intermediate sprint the road begins to rise and we have the first categorised climb of the day. Officially 2.3km at 8%, the road actually continues to climb once the riders pass the “summit” of the Côte d’Esmoulières. With no figures to go by on the profile it’s hard to judge but it looks as if there is roughly another 10km at ~2%.*

* Disclaimer – I’m just guessing the figures going by the profile so they aren’t 100% accurate! Looks to me that the climb crests at ~780m.

From there we have a long descent and travel through some valley roads before the road kicks up again. Again, the uncategorised climb isn’t tough, averaging roughly 2% for 11kms.

Therefore, the stage will inevitably come down to who is the strongest on La Planche des Belles Filles.

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A tough climb with some steep gradients we could see some reasonable time gaps if a few riders struggle to find their mountain-goat legs.

The past two finishes here have seen roughly a minute separate the top 10 but both of those days had much harder stages preceding them and on the day itself they were tougher.

So with that being said, we should in theory see a more tightly bunched up finishing order, but who knows!

How will the stage pan out?

Well, there is a chance that the break might stay away like we saw with the first mountain top finish at the Giro this year. However, I think that’s unlikely here as Sky will be willing to chase but so other teams will more than likely offer assistance as well, hoping their team leader can take some bonus seconds at the end of the day.

Contenders

There are really only a few riders I can see winning this.

Chris Froome.

It’s the first mountain top finish of the race, one of only three, so a big performance here from the Brit will really demoralise his opposition. He normally goes incredibly well on the first GC stage of the race and that could well be the case tomorrow. Having won on this exact finish before, his first ever Tour win in fact, he’ll know every inch of the road and will be looking to set his stall out as clear favourite for this race. Climbing poorly by his standards in the Dauphiné it will be intriguing to see how he does. Maybe we should take heed of his new contract with Sky, and assume that they know he’ll be firing on all cylinders tomorrow.

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Richie Porte.

 

The obvious challenger to Froome and Sky, the Australian has been unbelievable on the climbs this year; his Watts have been insane! Tomorrow is the type of day where he could do a Dumoulin on Oropa and just ride away from everyone due to simply being the most powerful rider. I have said it many times this year, these 15-20 minute climbs are his bread and butter and I would not be surprised to see him ride everyone off of his wheel!

Fabio Aru on form looks like the only other rider who could possibly get close to the two mentioned above. Simply stunning in his win at the Italian Championships, he is capable of putting in a very explosive attack that few can follow. Seemingly back to his best, can he take advantage of Froome/Porte marking each other out of it and take his first Tour stage win?

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Dan Martin could be close to the podium as well. He was strong on stage 3 and the steep gradients certainly suit the Irishman. The shorter the climb, the better for him, so he’ll have his mind-set on trying to take some time in the opening week before we get to the really long climbs later in the race.

What about Quintana? No one knows what the Colombian can do just now. If in good form, he can ride away from everyone, even Porte. The question is if is on form. I’ll guess we’ll know come half 4 tomorrow.

I’m not too sure that anyone else is capable of the win tomorrow, maybe only Thomas. He does seem to be going very well at the moment.

Prediction

First mountain stage of the Tour and we’ll see the best climber from this year take the stage. Porte to win!

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Aru to sneak onto the podium, with Froome most likely taking the other spot.

Betting

Tempted with something on Porte outright for the stage but I’ve went for the longer odds rider/better EW value in;

1pt EW Aru @ 14/1 (would take 10s lowest)

Considering a few H2H but I’ll post them on my Twitter later if I do take them on.

Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see a break stay away, or will the GC guys fight it out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 Preview; Mondorf-les-Bains -> Vittel

Today’s Recap

An exciting finale that had a little bit of everything but in the end the result was inevitable, wasn’t it? After managing to clip back into his pedal after unclipping, Sagan still had enough power to hold off a charging Matthews on the line to take a great stage victory.

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Dan Martin was the best of the GC guys, coming home in third place and taking 4 bonus seconds on the line plus a 2 second time gap back to the main GC group. Yates was the worst off today, losing 8 seconds to the likes of Froome/Porte etc.

A special mention must also go to Démare who managed to hold on to the wheels of the climbers and eventually finished 6th. He’s in stupendous form at the moment!

Will he get a chance to go for the win tomorrow?

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A fairly simple stage with not too much to talk about!

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It should be a day for the sprinters so the stage is all about the final few kilometres.

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The road does rise and fall in the final 5kms but it’s nothing too severe. The climb that you see on the profile above averages roughly 1.8% for 2kms, so nothing more than false flat. Likewise, the finish itself does ramp up but it is only 1.7% for the final kilometre.

I’m sure all of the sprinters would expect to be there!

As for the run-in itself, it is more technical than what we had on stage 2.stage-4-5km

So here comes a little preview by pictures…

The first challenge the riders will have to face is the turn onto Rue de la Vauviard after they come off the short descent.

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Having gathered up a lot of pace, they’ll have to be careful not to misjudge the bend as it is a lot tighter than I expected going off of the stage map. From there, they will face a sweeping road until the “tight turn” at roughly 1.5km to go.

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Said “tight turn”

On a two-lane wide road the fight for position will be important as the best way to take the turn at maximum speed is to sweep from left to right. From there, they continue towards a roundabout which is a lot more precarious than the road book suggests.

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The two lanes that they approach on are split by some nasty looking road furniture, with the roundabout itself being very narrow. I hope we don’t see any accidents as every tries to funnel right.

Once through the roundabout the riders will hit the Flamme Rouge and from there things get a lot easier with no more sharp turns and slightly wider roads.

Conteders

Can anyone beat Kittel? Probably not.

The German was incredibly strong on the opening stage and if he produces the same amount of power tomorrow then he should eat up the finish. He will be hoping for a better lead-out though as he can’t afford to go too early on the rise as it could catch him (or anyone) out.

Démare again looks like his main challenger. The Frenchman missed his structured lead-out on stage 1 and he’ll bo hoping that changes tomorrow. They have the numbers to control the final 3km which is a huge advantage. Not afraid of a slight drag to the line, he has a good chance of going better than stage 2.7087035_1-0-1561477825_1000x625

Greipel loves a tougher sprint finish like this and he no doubt will be there at the end again. His train isn’t the best, he’ll need to use all of his experience to stay near enough to the front through the technical sections.

Cavendish took some promise from his result on stage 2. With another day of racing in his legs, will his form be on the up? Who knows! I’ll repeat what I said for the last sprint stage, his result won’t surprise me either way!

Bouhanni is the local boy and he will relish the technical finish. However, I’m still not convinced he’s at 100% after his crash in Yorkshire. He’ll give it his all and like Cavendish, I won’t be surprised with whatever he does.

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Groenewegen normally goes well on tougher run ins. The young Dutchman has no fear so he should be well positioned going into the final kilometre. Does he have the legs to compete with the best? A 5th on Stage 2 was promising and he may well sneak a podium tomorrow.

Matthews produced a very impressive final few hundred metres today, but it was too little too late. Not the fastest in a pan-flat sprint, the ever so slight gradient does bring him closer to the other sprinters.

Degenkolb was never really involved in the sprint on stage 2 and he might struggle with a lack of support. However, he looked very strong at the start of the year and you have to imagine that he will be close to that form again due to it being the Tour. If things click tomorrow, we might see a good result from the German sprinter.

Sagan will of course be up there again. Hampered on Stage 2, he was truly exceptional today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go back to back.

Colbrelli and Kristoff will looking to top 10 again.

Prediction

Boring, but Kittel wins again most likely!

Cue the glaringly obvious Kittel wins in Vittel headlines.

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He certainly can be challenged though and a few riders will fancy their chances, it won’t be as “easy” for him as it was on stage 2.

Betting

No value in Kittel but there are two “outsiders” I’d like to back because the odds are just ridiculous for them.

0.7pt EW Matthews @ 80/1 with PP/BF (Would take 66s)

The Sunweb rider actually has a fairly solid lead-out train with him and theory could be one of the better positioned riders in the finale tomorrow. He got blocked off on Stage 2 so could never really make any effort to go for the win. His finish today gives me a lot of confidence in his power right now and I think he could be up there tomorrow again. Definitly should be lower than a 66 or 80/1 shot.

0.3pt EW Degenkolb @150/1 with Sky/PP/BF (would take 125s)

He’s not been great as of late but that doesn’t warrant his massive price, I think his form is actually on the up. Another rider who didn’t really sprint at all on Stage 2, he might get lucky tomorrow. I find it absurd that he’s that price while McClay/Kristoff/Colbrelli are all shorter, and by some margin.

Probably another two losing “value” bets, but they could run close in a hectic finish.

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 Preview; Verviers -> Longwy

Today’s Recap

I’ll be honest, I only caught the last 5km of the stage today. There was a crash earlier in the day involving Froome, Porte and Bardet but given early reports I don’t think it’s too serious for any of them.

We did end up with a sprint, no echelon action unfortunately, and it was a very messy sprint at that. No team was able to take control in the final kilometre and a few of the fast men were left on the front too early.

In the end, Kittel produced an incredible sprint to win comfortably. Well, as comfortable as you can be in a sprint like that! He was in the wind from about 400m to go then latched onto Colbrelli when the Italian launched, coming round him in the final 150m.

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Démare and Greipel rounded out the podium, with Cavendish finishing a promising 4th. Hopefully we’ll see more of him over the coming week.

The result sees Kittel move up to third place on GC. Will he be fighting for stage honours tomorrow and a stint in the yellow jersey? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

Another long day in the saddle at 212km, the terrain is definitely more rolling than today’s stage.

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There are 4 categorised KOM points out on course (a 5th if you include the finish) so no doubt we’ll see Phinney try to get into the morning break and defend his lead in that competition. However, it’s not just the categorised climbs that will sap the legs of the riders, there are several uncategorised bumps for them to deal with as well.

It all depends on the pace of the peloton but it could be a more wearing day than expected.

We might see a couple of riders try an attack within the final 10km if the break is brought back but more than likely it will come down to a battle up the final climb.

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At first look at the official profile I thought some of the tougher sprinters would have a good chance on a finish like this as they would carry a lot of speed into the climb due to the descent that ends with roughly 4km to go.

However, there actually appears to be a small rise just after the descent that we don’t see on the official profile.

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Link to the Strava profile can be found here.

Not long at 500m, it does average ~6.8% and it could be another springboard for someone to try to catch the peloton out.

Furthermore, the road seems to rise almost from the 4km mark on the above graphic to the finish line. Using the numbers from that, the final 2.4km average 5% which definitely makes it too tough for some sprinters!

It reminds me of the finish to Terme Luigiane (Stage 6) at the Giro this year, although that day is inverted to this one with the tougher gradients coming right at the end, whereas the steeper slopes come at the bottom tomorrow.

The difference from that day is that the run in at the Giro had a few slightly harder climbs, but fewer of them. You would also expect the riders to be a lot fresher here as those at the Giro had already climbed Etna two days before.

How will the stage pan out?

This is a really tough one to call.

Originally, I had this down as a nailed on Sagan stage like I’m sure a lot of people did/still have! However, since looking at the finish more I think it could be on the limit of the World Champion. No doubt he will be there or thereabouts but on a finish like this, Matthews looks like a better contender to me. The Australian is a better climber than him, although slower in a sprint, but this is nullified due to the uphill nature of the finish.

We could of course see someone attack early and try to catch the bunch out, looking at you Wellens, but it will be tough for any move like that to succeed.

The more I think about it though, the more I liken this finish to Amstel Gold Race of old where the day ended right at the top of the Cauberg.

Therefore, I’m leaning more towards puncheurs for the stage. In fact, I think with all of the climbing in the day beforehand, we might even see some GC riders put their nose into the wind.

Contenders

As there are a lot of possible riders who could win tomorrow I’m only going to name a few, so apologies if I miss someone out you were hoping for.

The King of the Cauberg, Gilbert is here and I imagine he will be given free rein tomorrow to chase the stage. In remarkable form this Spring, he returned to racing towards the end of May and looked as strong as he did before his enforced break. I’ll be very surprised not to see him feature in the top 10 tomorrow!

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Van Avermaet also has to be considered a favourite for tomorrow and is another rider who had a spectacular spring campaign. The climb could be on his limit but I think his one-day prowess should see him there or thereabouts.

Away from those two though, I think we could see a few “surprise” names in the mix. I really think it will be quite a selective day so here goes my trio of “outsiders”…

Carlos Betancur.

The Colombian tore the race to bits at the recent Hammer Series and rode a very solid Tour de Suisse, coming home in the top 20 on GC. Great for him considering where he was at the start of the year! Here to rider the race in support of his leader, I think he may just be given the nod to go for it tomorrow. The climb suits the Betancur of 2014/ down to the ground and I think we could see him fly up it like he did at the Hammer Series. I’m sure a lot of fans would love to see that!

Fabio Aru.

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After winning the Italian Championships last Sunday the Astana rider will be full of confidence. He’s looked back to his 2015 best as of late, packing a real punch when he attacks out of the saddle. The finish might be too easy for him, but given his aggressive nature and the fact he already finds himself 40 seconds down on Froome, he could well test the water. If so, he is a real danger for the stage.

Thibaut Pinot.

Not here for GC and only stage hunting, supposedly, tomorrow looks like a good day for the Frenchman. His form is a bit unknown as he’s only completed the French TT Championships after his efforts at the Giro d’Italia. Nonetheless, he is arguably one of the fastest out of the GC guys so if it becomes a really selective gallop to the line then he has a great chance of winning if his legs are good.

Prediction

Having been let loose from the shackles of my season-long fantasy team after scoring me 0 points in the first few months, Betancur will repay me here and take the win!

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I mean someone from Movistar has to do what Valverde would have done?!

Betting

Outsider central here…

0.5pt EW on them all;

Betancur @300/1 with PP/BF (would take 150s with Boyles who are paying 4 places, even 100/1 elsewhere).

Pinot @ 400/1 with various bookmakers.

Aru @ 300/1 with various bookmakers.

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Is it as tough a day as I think or have I read far too much into it? We should be in for an exciting finale either way. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 Preview; Düsseldorf -> Liège

Today’s Recap

Luck, bravery and a stonkingly strong effort from Thomas saw him take Yellow at the end of a very tricky and tough day.

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Don’t think many people would have predicted that!

Küng and Kiryienka rounded out the podium, with Froome being the best GC rider (not including Thomas of course), beating his closest rivals by around 25 seconds.

It was a course fraught with danger due to the wet and greasy surface which unfortunately meant several riders crash. The #HaugheyCurse already managed to rear its head on stage one with Roglic going down and ruling him out of stage contention. However, more disappointingly we’ve had two abandons in the form of Valverde and Izagirre, both of whom were top 10 contenders for the overall at the very least.

The organisers will be looking for a much more mundane day out tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A fairly flat day out where the sprinters should get their first chance to go for stage glory.

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We should see a fairly exciting start to the day as several riders will no doubt be gunning for the early KOM. After that though it should be a fairly benign day as they travel through Germany until the terrain starts to get more rolling once they enter Belgium and the province of Liège.

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We do have some uncategorised rises and a Cat-4 climb that crests with 20km to go but they should be of no difficulty to the fast men.

The run is a sprinters delight and I’m sure the GC riders will be happy with it too, no first road stage nervousness!

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Facing a few technical turns, the biggest difficulty is a right-handed turn at 3km to go. After that, it will be a drag race between the lead-out trains with the final kilometre being dead straight.

Weather Watch

One thing that could upset the apple cart though is the weather. We might have a few showers throughout the day and there are some consistent winds forecast throughout the day.

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Weather forecast for Aachen (Source: Windfinder)

Strong enough to create some echelons when the route is heading South/South-West (so most of the stage), I will be intrigued to see if any team tries to split it in the wind.

It’s quite hard to tell how exposed some of the course is due to the strange reason that Google Streetview hasn’t covered any of the area south of Mönchengladbach. Can anyone tell me why?!

Looking at the satellite images, it appears like flat German farmland that could be fairly exposed to the wind.

As for when the riders enter Belgium, we have typical small Belgian towns, some exposed roads but some fairly well sheltered.

I think it’s unlikely we’ll see any splits but you never know. Some teams/riders are already facing an uphill battle on GC so if they sense any opportunity they’ll go for it.

Sprint Contenders 

The first sprint of a Tour is always an interesting one as riders/teams aren’t sure of what to expect. Everyone will fancy their chances so it often leads to a rather chaotic finale. It will also be a cross-headwind finish so timing your effort will be important.

Marcel Kittel starts as the favourite for the day. The German has a team built to support him and it is arguably one of the longest proper sprint trains that we’ve seen in a Grand Tour since the HTC days. Quick Step will be able to put the power down in the closing few kilometres and with Sabatini (Kittel’s trusted lead-out man) dropping him off at 150m to go, will anyone be able to beat him?

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Arnaud Démare on current form looks like his main challenger, with the Frenchman dominant in his last few races. The reason I said “arguably” for Kittel’s lead-out is that Deémare will have everyone in his team apart from Pinot working for him. The signings of Cimolai and Guarnieri have really brought some high-end speed into the top end of the order. He might not beat Kittel when the German is up to full race speed but since he’s not raced in a while, Démare has every chance. I’m sure he’ll be doing his rain dance too!

Peter Sagan will be close to the top of the order, like always! He really seems to up his game in the sprints at the Tour and is one of the fastest riders here. Sagan doesn’t really have a lead-out train to the same extent as Kittel and Demare do but he still has some fire power. Selig will be his last man and he’s a rider who I’ve really rated this season, he’s done great work for Bennett etc, so he’ll be expected to continue that for Sagan here. Can the World Champion make an early claim for Green with a win?

Andre Greipel is a bit of a hit or miss character in the sprints recently and I think it is clear he’s sorely missing Henderson. Lotto Soudal shortened their lead-out train on the final day of the Tour last year and it seemed to work for them then so they’ve taken a similar approach this year. He’ll more than likely have to latch onto the back of someone elses lead-out and I think it will be tough for him to take the win, but he is certainly strong enough on his day to do so.

Mark Cavendish is the unknown quantity. He says he doesn’t know where his form is, although he most definitely will, and I’m intrigued to see how he copes. With a strong lead-out, he is almost capable of anything tomorrow. I would not be surprised with a win or if he was nowhere.

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Dylan Groenewegen has the speed and fearlessness to get himself a podium position. He recently beat Kittel and Greipel at Ster ZLM so will be full of confidence, although he did struggle at the Nationals recently. I think he would prefer the finish to be a bit more technical. He has a chance but it will be tough!

As for the rest, they should be there or thereabouts but I think it will be hard for them to win.

Prediction

Arnaud Démare to take advantage of his fine form while he can and take the win, sending the French public/media into disarray!

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Betting

As I said yesterday, today was most likely to be a no bet and it will remain that way. Almost tempted with a couple of loose change punts on Naesen and Lutsenko at crazy prices and do my wind dance. I think I’ll save my money though to waste on future stages!

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Can anyone beat Kittel? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.