Tour de Romandie 2018 Stage 5 Preview; Mont-sur-Rolle -> Genève

Today’s Recap

A strong break got away but they were never given more than two and a half minutes and on the final climb we saw some GC attacks. They weren’t really fireworks though as Roglic managed to follow Bernal with relative ease, more a few sparklers instead. A regrouping on the descent saw Costa, Porte and Fuglsang join the duo but when the pace stalled the latter attacked and he was not seen again by the rest of the bunch.

Fuglsang held on for the win, a just reward for a good Spring campaign by him.

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Behind Roglic produced an impressive sprint to finish second and all but secure his GC win, with Bernal rounding out the podium. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Rather cruelly, the organisers have saved the easiest stage of the week until the end. There have plenty of mountains for the riders to get over to reach this point. We are in Switzerland though, so it is hard to avoid any hills at all so there are still plenty of small ascents for the peloton to tackle, but it is just the 2000m of climbing on offer.

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@LasterketaBurua

None of the climbs are long, or overly steep, so they are perfect for a barodeur. The stage gets easier as it progresses with the final 40km all mainly flat, with some of it even going downhill.

The finale is incredibly easy too, with only a left-hand turn on an open road with around 1.2km to go that might worry the peloton.

You can view the final 5km here:

Will it be a bunch contesting the finish though?

How will the day pan out?

On paper this is a sprint stage through and through but given we had a lack of sprinters at this race in the first place, compiled with the fact Viviani, Gaviria and Matthews have all pulled out then there is chance we don’t get a big bunch gallop to the line.

Who’s left?

Colbrelli, Ackermann, Albasini, Dumoulin and Ferrari are the main guys who are left. Not exactly a who’s who of sprinting talent…

Bahrain were foiled on stages 1 and 2 so a lot of pressure will be on them to chase as Colbrelli does look the fastest here out of those who remain. Can I see anyone else help them? Not really, but the prospect of a good placing for their sprinter on a WT stage could tempt some.

However, the much safer plan is to try to get a rider into the breakaway so that you can save energy for later on in the stage. If enough of the teams who represent the sprinters above get a guy up the road, it isn’t coming back. Unless of course we have some sneaky rider who is 5 minutes down and close enough to trouble the GC, although with that said, Jumbo only have 4 guys left at the race. Things could get very interesting if let’s say Castroviejo escapes in a group of 10.

Time to play that game again though…

TheBreakawayLottery

Finding the G-Spot…

Alexis Gougeard.

He was on the attack during the first open road stage and was oh so close to the win, being caught within the final few kilometres. This is his type of terrain where the climbs aren’t too steep or long and he can just plough his way through them. A tenacious rider, he will be a danger in the finale and he has shown in the past he has the strength to hold off a strong group.

Jose Goncalves.

When he’s hot, he’s really hot! The Portuguese rider is one of the hardest riders to predict from-wise but he has impressed me so far this race with a strong 12th place on the mountain TT. However, he suffered today and finished over 20 minutes down. A ploy so that he can go on the attack tomorrow? Possibly. The majority of his wins have come from reduced sprints on rolling terrain, can he add another to his tally tomorrow?

Andrei Grivko.

 

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Astana to make it two in two and three in total at this race? Grivko was on the attack on stage 2 when De Gendt took the honours but he was dropped on the toughest climb of the day which was on and over his limit! However, the parcours tomorrow looks more suited to his capabilities and as a strong barodeur he will like the challenge. The other riders will need to watch out for those Froome-like pointy elbows though…

Enrico Gasparotto.

If Bahrain decide that they don’t want to chase all day for Colbrelli then sending a man up the road is the perfect plan for them. We saw during the Ardennes week that the Italian is in a purple-patch of form at the moment. However, he was used on stage 2 to effectively pull back the break himself and that was never going to happen. Much more used to going on the attack, he will back his chances in a sprint from the break.

Prediction

The break to stay away and Alexis Gougeard to take a dominant stage win after attacking in the finale and coming home solo. He looked impressive on the opening road stage and if he puts in a similar performance tomorrow it will be tough for anyone to match him.

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Betting

It appears as if the bookmakers have a similar idea so the guys are quite short price wise, nonetheless I’ll still be backing them for an interest.

0.5pt WIN on them all:

Gougeard @ 33/1

Grivko @ 66/1

Gasparotto @ 33/1

Goncalves @ 40/1

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? I’ll be having a few days off from blog writing before things kick into full swing for the Giro so expect daily previews throughout the race for that. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

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Tour de Romandie 2018 Stage 4 Preview; Sion -> Sion

Today’s Recap

Never in doubt, was it? Ha!

Bernal took an incredibly strong win (with possibly some help from his minute-man that happened to be his team-mate along the way), edging out a motoring Roglic who finished just 4 seconds behind the Colombian in the end after being 12 seconds behind him at the split. A resurgent Porte rounded out the podium and is a sign of what is to come from him later in the year.

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The result means that Roglic is still in the race lead with Bernal only 6 seconds down and Porte 27 seconds back himself.

All to play for going in to tomorrow’s stage. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

We have the Queen stage with over 3500m of climbing packed into only 150km of racing.

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@LasterketaBurua

However, it the toughest ascent of the day is actually the very first one that the peloton will tackle, starting the climb after only 8kms into the stage. Ovronnaz averages a leg breaking 9.5% for 9.1km but surely it is too early for anyone to try anything here, especially with a long section of flat that follows the descent.

Three climbs then come in quick succession, with the first of them being the second most difficult climb of the day. Again though, with 75kms from the peak of that climb to the finish it is hard to believe we’ll see any fireworks here.

The last climb of the day Collons (13.1km at 6.5%) crests with 27km to go and it will tempt attacks from the peloton.

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As you can see on the profile above, there are 3kms of much shallower gradients in the middle of the climb before it starts to ramp back upwards again towards the top, with the last 5kms averaging roughly 7.7%.

The descent is long and technical which means that gaps can be made by those who are more confident going downhill, consequently making it as good a place to attack as the climb. Thankfully for the riders, it looks set to be a dry day.

With roughly 6kms of flat to the line after the descent, it will take a strong rider to hold off a chasing group behind unless of course there is no co-operation in said group.

How will the race pan out?

Beats me.

This is one of those stages that could go a multitude of ways and it almost seems too hard which could lead to negative racing. Furthermore, with Roglic clearly flying it will be very hard for anyone to dethrone him, especially when you consider he is a very competent descender himself so a rider will need a good lead off the last climb. You then have to consider that he has the strongest domestique in the race, Kruijswijk, who just happens to be sitting 4th on GC himself, to help bring back any attacks.

Before the stage today Izagirre said in an interview that the rider who won the TT would win the race overall and I tend to agree with him. Bernal is incredible, but he will need a stupendous day to beat Roglic. He and Sky might know that and given that it is a tough stage to control anyway, they might turn their head to stage hunting.

I think we’ll see a strong group of riders go clear on the first climb that will fragment later on but survive any GC surge from behind. So once again, it is time to play everyone’s favourite game…

TheBreakawayLottery

The 3 Darter

Andrey Amador.

The Costa Rican is a strong all round rider who can go well on the flat and in the mountains. He was probably Movistar’s GC leader coming in to this race but he disappointed in the prologue and wasn’t great today either. However, his plans might have changed and he could be eyeing up a stage win from the breakaway instead. I would be surprised not to see Movistar on the attack tomorrow as they have a squad here geared up for that sort of thing. Amador has shown in the past at the Giro that he can cope well on tough mountain days but he can also descend like a stone. He will worry some if he gets into the morning move.

Rudy Molard.

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Took a breakthrough win in Paris Nice earlier in the year that was coming, after he has been knocking on the door for a good result over the past couple of seasons. He’s a very punchy climber who can cope with steep slopes so the opening climb should be good for him to make the break. Molard possesses a good kick so in a small sprint to the line he might have a chance.

Guillaume Martin.

I’m a big fan of the Wanty rider and he is slowly developing into one of the best Pro-Conti climbers. Last year he took an impressive third place in a stage at the Tour and followed that up with the GC win at Alfredo Martini. 2018 has been a solid year for him so far with a win in Cycliste Sarthe before being a bit under the weather scuppered any chances of a good result in the Ardennes. If he has bounced back from that illness then he has the potential to put in a good performance tomorrow.

If we do get a GC fight for the stage win then someone slightly further down the order might profit from Roglic / Bernal / Porte looking at each other but that is a bridge I will cross when it comes tomorrow!

Prediction

Andrey Amador to descend like a stone off of the final climb and hold off the chasing group of GC favourites.

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Behind, Roglic will hold on for the GC title.

Betting

0.5pt WIN on them all;

Amador @ 125/1

Martin @ 150/1

Molard @ 50/1

Giro Tips

I’ve been thinking for a while about either charging for tips (£5) during the Grand Tours or the blogs as a way of subsidising all my time and effort that goes into daily previews. I have left a poll on my Twitter feed that you can vote on if you would be interested in anything. The blogs would stay the same but just without the “Betting” section, which would obviously be left for others. I’m leaning more towards just the tips but then again, we all know how shite my Giro was last year and I don’t want any extra pressure!  Mr Wong will probably come crawling out of the doldrums…

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see a break make it all the way or will the GC guys battle it out for glory? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Tour de Romandie 2018 Stage 3 Preview; Ollon -> Villars

Today’s Recap

All hail the King of the Breakaways.

After a small move made up of very strong riders went away this morning, Jumbo decided it would be a good idea to give them more than 7 minutes of an advantage. With no-one helping to aid the chase until we got into the final 65km where Bahrain took over, the gap was sustained for a long time. Slowly the group ahead was whittled down to just Campenaerts, De Gendt and Brown on the last categorised climb of the day; and they still had over 5 minutes going into the last 40km.

Campenaerts soon went out the back and De Gendt shelled Brown once we got onto the local lap’s climbs. From there, it was a TDG v Gasparotto TT and there was only ever going to be one winner!

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Behind, Colbrelli won the sprint for second with Dumoulin rolling back the years with a third place.

Roglic still retains the race lead as we head into what will be a crucial stage tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders

The Route

Hmm, I think this is going to be the shortest route analysis ever:

It’s uphill.

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@LasterketaBurua

Mountain TT day so it will be a tough day out for the fast men, who will just be hoping to make the time cut. Villars-sur-Ollon is a tricky climb that has been tackled back at this race before: most recently in 2016 when Froome managed to hold off a group of favourites after he was given some freedom due to losing a lot of time the previous day.

RomS3Route

With an average of 8.1% for 9.7km, it will be hard for a non-climber to win. Even the very best TT riders such as Dennis etc will struggle.

Contenders

A mountain TT is something we aren’t treated to often as cycling fans with Alpe di Siusi in the 2016 Giro the most recent one that I can think of at a WT event in Europe. Although I’m sure someone is bound to correct me if I’m wrong!

Given that it is a one-off effort and essentially a w/Kg contest then Dennis might be up in or around the top 10 but I really think it will be difficult for him to compete for the win. Unless of course he has really prepared well for the Giro over the past few weeks and he’s lost a bit more weight. Instead it is his team-mate who probably starts as the favourite.

Richie Porte.

The best rider in the world on 4-6km climbs, tomorrow’s 10km effort might not be ideal for him but that won’t stop him charging up to Villars. If I knew he was in tip-top shape then I would probably end the preview here because no-one would be able to match him but it is that unknown about his form which makes it interesting. He was ok in the prologue but on balance he will probably be disappointed with his performance on that day and he’ll want to go a lot better tomorrow. He’s won the Col d’Eze mountain TT in Paris Nice on two occasions but that climb is easier than what we have here, although that shouldn’t phase Porte. As I’ve said, his form is a big unknown but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him blitz everyone away here. Look for team-mate Van Garderen to put in a good time too.

Primoz Roglic.

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We certainly know what the current race leader’s form is like, he is flying at the moment. Roglic has never done an uphill TT as far as I’m aware, so it will be interesting to see how he copes but he certainly is capable of putting out enough watts to compete. The one question mark that I have over his head is does he have the ability to be up there fighting the very best climbers on a one-off ascent that is as long and as steep as this? There is only one way to find out…

Geraint Thomas.

I would say that Thomas might suffer the same fate as Roglic given they are both slightly heavier compared to the likes of Porte, but then again, they both can put out a lot of power for a good time. Furthermore, we saw in Trentino last year that the Sky rider followed a very strong Quintana closely home on the Terminillo, not a bad result for someone who isn’t a natural mountain goat. Sky have been very impressive in TTs this year so why should that change for an uphill effort against the clock? He should be fighting for the win.

Egan Bernal.

As should his young Colombian team-mate. Bernal is one of the most exceptional talents to have come through the ranks in the past few years and I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do tomorrow; this climb looks right up his street. We saw in Catalunya that he was the only guy who could match a flying Valverde and if he produces a similar performance tomorrow then he might be the surprise package of the day.

Ion Izagirre.

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He’s had a good comeback this year after his season ending injury at the 2017 Tour. In both Paris Nice and Itzulia he looked very promising but in Fleche and Liege he was disappointing, particularly as he went well at the latter in 2017. An uphill TT should be to his liking but it just depends which Ion shows up tomorrow.

Simon Spilak.

You can’t talk about inconsistent riders without mentioning Mr “goes well at one of the Swiss races each year”. Don’t really think that nickname will catch on…We saw at the Tour de Suisse in 2017 a flying Spilak and on his day he can climb with the very best. In fact, on the same Terminillo stage that Thomas finished second on, Spilak came home 5th after being an aggresor on the earlier slopes. Who knows what we’ll see from him. I wouldn’t be surprised by a podium or a 23rd place.

Pierre Latour.

The French TT champion has looked lively so far this race and he could snatch a very good result tomorrow. The Grinder, as Kirby likes to call him for some unknown reason, has built on a promising early few seasons as a pro with a podium place on GC in Catalunya earlier in the year which included a hard-fought 4th place on La Molina. He’s one to watch with interest.

Also, riders you wouldn’t normally consider for a TT might be fighting for a good result due to the nature of the course, such as Martin, Fuglsang and Betancur.

Prediction

The best climber here wins…

Step up Egan Bernal!

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Betting

3pts WIN Bernal @ 13/2.

Then 2pts on this double.

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Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see some surprise results? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Tour de Romandie 2018 Stage 2 Preview: Delémont -> Yverdon-les-Bains

This will be a short and sweet preview!

Today’s Recap

An exciting finish to this afternoon’s racing saw a plethora of attacks go and be brought back before we ultimately had a reduced bunch gallop of 50 riders sprinting for the win. Omar Fraile made it look all too easy, producing a powerful kick to distance favourite (after Matthews was dropped) Sonny Colbrelli, with former World Champion Rui Costa rounding out the podium.

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It was one of those annoying punting days where the three riders were in the mix, with Buchmann squirreling off the front for a bit, Roglic being attentive and marking GC riders and Bernal getting up for 6th in the sprint but ultimately no bacon was brought home. Hopefully something that will change over the next few days!

With that said let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A tough start to the day with the riders climbing almost from the gun.

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@LasterketaBurua

This should ensure we get a fairly strong break that gets up the road before things get slightly easier for the following 80kms. The main test of the day is the Col des Etroits (5.7km at 6%) which crests with just under 65kms to go. However, it is too far out for any major action so it will come down to the rolling profile of the final lap circuit which will decide the day.

You can view a profile of that circuit here.

The three rises are; 3.5km at 3.8%, 2.3km at 5.2% and 4km at 3%.

They shouldn’t be enough to put the sprinters into difficulty but you never know, some went pop pretty quickly today.

As for the finish itself there are a couple of roundabouts and tight turns in the closing 5kms but nothing too crazy. Although a turn at 400m to go could well prove me wrong.

How will the stage pan out?

On paper, it should be one for the sprinters but the tough start will tempt a strong breakaway and if we get a reasonably large-sized group (6-8 guys) then they might not be brought back.

Furthermore, we don’t actually have that many sprinters here with Matthews, Gaviria/Viviani and Colbrelli the main ones in attendance. Consequently, a lot of the work will be left for their teams to chase – do they have the firepower to bring back a strong group? Probably, if everyone works well.

Tomorrow does have the same feel about it as the stage that Küng won from the break last year.

For the break to stay away the riders involved in it need to be either far down on GC already, or not a threat for the overall come the end of the week.

De Gendt will no doubt be up the road and he already tested the waters today. Others to possibly look out for are Dillier, Poljansjki, Frankiny and Ludvigsson for example.

Yet, I think we’ll see enough of a committed chase and a sprint at the end of the day. Maybe.

Prediction

Whichever Quick-Step rider sprints will take the day and after he looked stronger (wasn’t dropped as early) this afternoon, I’ll go with Gaviria as the winner!

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Betting

Can’t back any of the sprinters with confidence so a wasted 0.5pt on some break hopefulls it is:

0.25pt WIN Dillier @ 125/1

0.125pt WIN Ludvigsson @ 300/1

0.125pt WIN Frankiny @ 300/1

Apologies for the shorter preview. Who do you think will win? Will we see the expected sprint or will a surprise break make it? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Romandie 2018 Stage 1 Preview; Fribourg -> Delémont

Today’s Recap

After a disappointing performance on Sunday, Michael Matthews bounced back excellently today to take the win on a course that suited him perfectly.

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I’ll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong as I hadn’t expected him to have recovered from Liege, oh well! Behind him, Swiss rider Tom Bohli confirmed his explosive TT potential with a strong second place, with blog pick Primoz Roglic only managing to finish third.

Dennis was edged off the podium but he, Bohli and Roglic all finished just one second behind Matthews in what was a closely fought day. Interestingly, Matthews made a lot of his time on the slight downhill first section, with Dennis and Roglic gaining 5 seconds in the latter part but it was not enough for them.

Can the Sunweb rider hold on to the leader’s jersey tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A rolling day that hopefully should tempt some attacks from the bunch later on in the afternoon.

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@LasterketaBurua

The early climbs will more than likely see a fight for some KOM points between the breakaway and the honour to wear that jersey but the battle for the stage win comes down to the lap circuit around Delémont.

As per, I’ve made a Strava/VV profile of the closing lap that you can view here.

Romandie S1 Lap

The opening climb of the circuit is the toughest with the Col du Sommet averaging just over 7% for 5.1km.

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As you can see on the profile above, it is a climb that seems to go up in steps with quite sharp rises of gradients at some points. This should in theory make it difficult for some riders to get into a good rhythm and it might lend itself to a more punchy climber who likes to accelerate and decelerate.

Once over the top, the riders will face a 5km descent that isn’t overly technical and it is one that they will have to pedal on as some of the gradients aren’t too steep.

The road then kicks up again with the uncategorised ascent of Prés Sur La Croix. Or at least that is what the Strava segment is called.

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At an average of 4.3% for 3.1km most who made it over the previous climb should make it with the bunch here. However, with the final kilometre of the ascent averaging a more challenging 7%, it could be a perfect launchpad for an attack. There is around 600m of plateau before the road plunges down again, so it will need to be a committed attack to distance anyway. Conversely, an attack could even be made on the plateau as everyone looks around at each other.

Once onto the next descent the riders will only have 10km left, of which 6km are spent going downhill. It is much steeper this time so any gaps made previously will be hard to bring back.

RomS1Fin

The final 4kms have their own challenges though with a 4% drag halfway through and a 300m, 6% kick up to the line on narrow roads: which would be interesting if we get a reasonable sized bunch come to the line.

How will the stage pan out?

Tomorrow is one of those really weird days where almost anything could happen.

If Matthews doesn’t fancy his chances of holding on to the overall then Sunweb might call everyone’s bluff and we could see a break take the win. Conversely, the day could be raced at a pretty slow pace and he makes the finish and consequently doubles up.

It could quite well turn into a GC day but that all just depends on the approach of the riders. After all, it is only tomorrow and stages 2 and 4 which could shape the outcome of the race overall. Those looking to gain time might seize an opportunity and make it an aggressive race.

That situation then leads onto the possible late attack sticking, or will it be a very reduced group sprint?

Personally I think we will see something similar to what we had in the Alps recently, with tomorrow turned into an aggressively raced GC day with either a solo, or group of riders escaping. However, with the way the finish is, it will be hard for any big gaps to be made unless there is a complete stall in the main group. Which is possible.

Contenders

I could name a multitude of riders who might have a chance tomorrow given the unpredictability of the stage but I don’t want to be here all evening so I’ll just stick to a few.

Tejay van Garderen.

44th Volta Algarve 2018 - Stage Five

Somewhat disappointing today but the prologue never has been a speciality of his, the American will enjoy being back on the open road for tomorrow’s stage. I expect BMC to have quite a few guys in the head of the peloton as it is whittled down but I’m not too sure they will wait for a sprint with someone like Dennis. Instead, I expect to see them attacking on the lap circuit in an attempt to make the race as difficult as possible. Van Garderen was to the fore in Finistère but was caught not too far from the finish and his pretty poor sprint saw him finish in 8th. I think he has some good climbing legs at the moment but he will probably need to arrive solo to the line.

Egan Bernal.

Another team who should have numbers near the head of the race are Sky. Rosa, Thomas and Bernal all placed within the top 12 today and give them great options for a stage like this. Although the young Colombian is returning from the terrible crash in Catalunya that cost him his first WT stage-race GC podium, he appears to be in good form from first viewing. He is one of the most talented riders in the peloton and I don’t think he will be to far off his Catalunya level. That will scare the other teams as he was the only one who could match a flying Valverde then, even taking the race to him on the last stage before the unfortunate crash. He packs a surprisingly good sprint so he will fancy his chances in a gallop to the line against a handful of others. Will he be granted the freedom?

Louis Vervaeke.

If Matthews falters then Sunweb could possibly turn to their young Belgian rider to get involved in the finale. Vervaeke had a strong start to 2017 before over-training and burning himself out. This season he has taken a slightly different approach and it seems to be paying off as he slowly rides himself into form. A very strong climber as a junior and U23, can he roll back the years this week?

Emmanuel Buchmann.

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The former German champion is another who has had a slow start to the year but he showed in the recent running of Itzulia that his form is now starting to pick up. He finished a very respectable 4th on GC in that race against some strong riders. Arriving at this race as Bora’s “protected” rider, he will be unfortunately be left with little help in the mountains as half of the team is sprint-based with only a returning from illness Kennaugh and Poljkanski to help. I think he might be isolated quite a few times at this race! The best form of defense is attack as they say, so it would be good to see him being aggressive tomorrow. He’s not a slouch in a very reduced sprint to the line.

Prediction

The teams to ride an attacking race with the limited GC days that we have here and we’ll consequently see a small group of guys escape on the final lap. They all might not be the obvious favourites for the overall win, but with the majority of the stronger teams represented, the move stays away.

Bernal bounces back from Catalunya disappointment by taking a powerful sprint victory!

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Betting

1pt EW Bernal @ 18/1 (would take down to 14/1).

0.5pt EW Buchmann @ 66/1 (would take down to 40/1)

1pt EW Roglic @ 33/1 (Would take down to 22s)

I know I didn’t name Roglic in the list above but if he is climbing as well as he was in Itzulia then he has a chance of escaping and possibly riding solo to the line. As we saw in that race as well, he is no slouch. The price is too big to ignore.

Thanks as always for reading. How do you think tomorrow’s stage will play out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Tour de Romandie 2018 Prologue Preview: Fribourg -> Fribourg

Tour de Romandie 2018 Prologue Preview: Fribourg -> Fribourg

GC Overview

Last year’s race was won by a flying Richie Porte and he returns in 2018 to defend his crown. It will be tough from him though as he is just back to racing after a period out of competition due to illness so BMC leadership might pass to Tejay van Garderen in what is the Swiss outfit’s local race. Nonetheless, if Porte is back to his best then it will be tough to beat him, especially with the uphill TT on stage 3.

However, we could see a challenge from Roglic who himself was going incredibly well in Itzulia until a crash on the final day hampered his dominance ever so slightly. He did still take the overall though but it is yet to be seen if he has recovered from that crash: on his blog post he says that the wounds are still healing. Could it all be a ruse and we’ll see the former ski-jumper make it two WT stage race wins back to back at the end of the week?

Thomas is the only other rider who should be near the head of affairs on GC come the end of the race. He started the year with a strong showing in Algarve before a very untimely mechanical in Tirreno scuppered any chances of taking the overall. He finished Liege on Sunday which might see him a bit tired from the travel on the opening day but once the mountains start I expect a good race.

Hmmm, Roglic could well go back to back but because we’re in Switzerland I’ll go for a BMC win and a surprise result with Tejay Van Garderen after they play the numbers game very well in the mountains. Time to finally get that “European GC win” monkey off your back Tejay!

44th Volta Algarve 2018 - Stage Five

One extra thing to consider is that potential poor weather later in the week might see some of the stages altered.

Before anyone can think about the mountains though the riders will have to navigate a very tricky opening prologue. Let’s take a look at what is in store for them tomorrow.

The Route

This looks like a fun watch!

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@LasterketaBurua

As per usual for a TT/prologue, I’ve made a Strava (Veloviewer) profile of the route that you can view here.

Fribourg Prologue 3D

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Once down the start ramp, the road continues to head downhill for the riders before they cross a bridge and take a left at a roundabout. Carrying a lot of speed through the corner is important as it will continue your momentum onto the slight 450m drag (5.1% average) which follows.

After that they will take a sweeping hairpin turn and plunge back down towards the river for a kilometre, no doubt travelling at ridiculous speeds for the town roads.

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Interestingly, some cobbled roads are thrown into the mix on both times the riders cross the river as it meanders through the valley. I wonder if the Swiss Roubaix hero will have a smile on his face?

The road continues to roll for around a kilometre or so before the riders will face the final test: the climb to the finish.

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With an 8.3% average gradient for 850m and a peak kick of almost 16%, it is no easy finish to the day but it is short enough that some of the puncheurs will hope to contend with the proper climbers and GC riders we have at this race.

Oh, one other thing, did I mention the opening 400m or so are cobbled?

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The Romandie organisers do know how to design a good opening prologue that has a bit of everything!

Thankfully it appears that riders will get similar conditions throughout the day with no rain forecast to fall. However, it is meant to rain heavily in Fribourg this evening so the roads might still be wet and slippy for the early starters in the afternoon but the likelihood is that it will have dried up by then.

This really is a mixed bag of a prologue with a few fast descents, some technical corners, cobbles and a punchy climb to finish. Given the short distance, it opens up the stage for some who may not be the best at pacing themselves over the longer efforts. However, given the rise at the end, whoever wins has to be half-decent at climbing. Sorry Alex Dowsett, that means you’re out unfortunately.

Three Clear Favourites?

Rohan Dennis.

The best TT rider in the World over a 12-15km distance (in my opinion), he often misses the mark when it is a really short effort against the clock. He has never won a prologue out of the seven that he has competed in as a professional, something that came as quite a surprise to me. To be fair to him, the last effort he had a chance of winning, I’m excluding the uphill prologue in the 2016 Dauphiné, was the opening day of the Baloise Belgium Tour in 2015 and he has improved a lot in the discipline since then. This is his last preparation race before the Giro so he should be in good form but he won’t be at tip-top shape just yet. Does that make him vulnerable for another second place?

Primoz Roglic.

The guy is a machine and he will love every aspect of tomorrow’s course. He has no fear on the descents so will no doubt fly down the road and we saw in Itzulia just how well he was climbing on the short, steep ramps. Question marks will remain over his head about how well he has recovered from the crash on the final stage of Itzulia, but I think he’ll be over the knock and fully focussed on this race. Unlike Dennis, Roglic has a prologue win to his name at the Ster ZLM Tour so he has shown to be explosive enough over the distance.

Geraint Thomas.

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A 4km effort against the clock with some cobbles and an uphill finish: doesn’t that sound great for a former team pursuit come one-day rider come GC contender? As I’ve mentioned above he’s been on good form so far this year and if it wasn’t for great team tactics or a terribly timed mechanical, he would probably have two GC titles under his belt. He’s a bit hit or miss in efforts against the clock but when he’s on, he’s normally really on!

The “they might cause a surprise but will ultimately fall short” riders

Matthews – He would have made the list above a quartet if it was not for his poor performance in Liege. With the travelling to be done as well and after a tough race, I can’t see him bouncing back.

Any BMC rider apart from RD – It’s their home race and they’ve really upped their TT game in general over the past few years. This season they (and Sky) have dominated top 10s, it is just a case of who will go close for them. Also, they’ve been in the wind tunnel testing a new skinsuit; will it make a big difference?

Izagirre Bros – See Matthews.

Boom – Too early in his comeback from surgery but I’d love to be proved wrong. He can pull a result out the bag.

Campenaerts – Not long enough.

Amador – He could be the surprise package here.

The Super Duper Longshot

Mr Romandie himself, Simon Spilak.

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No real results to shout home about this year and no signs of great form: a 9th at GP Indurain is his best finish so far. Yet, Spilak always seems to go well at this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him near the pointy end of affairs come the end of the week. Can he be there tomorrow? Maybe. He is a very hot or cold rider (mainly freezing) but when he sets his sight on a race he can match the best. If he is in the right frame of mind a good TT effort could start his week off on the right foot. I imagine he would probably prefer some rain though!

Prediction

A Dennis v Roglic v Thomas battle for the stage with the in-form Slovenian taking the honours.

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Betting

I tweeted out the Roglic pick before when odds were released.

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He has shortened drastically but I would still take

3pts WIN @ 9/2 with Bet365 (I would have him priced up at 3/1).

Also for a bit of fun, let’s go double Slovenian…

0.25pt EW Spilak @ 400/1 (Would take 200/1 lowest).

 

As for GC: 1pt EW Van Garderen @ 33/1.

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win tomorrow? Could we see a surprise result? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Liege Bastogne Liege 2018 Preview

The final race of the Ardennes’ week sees the riders tackle the fourth Monument of the year. We saw a tactical race last year but one that was ultimately decided by the final drag into Ans, which saw Valverde double-up after his win in Fleche earlier in the week.

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Can Alaphilippe repeat the feat this year? Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Pretty much a carbon copy of last year’s race!

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Roughly 4000m of climbing over 258km makes it a long day in the saddle for many, especially with the majority (9 out of 11) of the categorised climbs featuring in the final 100kms of the race. Expect to see a race of attrition

There is a chance we see some action on the Côte de La Redoute (2km at 8.9%) as this was a springboard for a group of escapees to go last year. With the climb cresting at just over 35km to go, if several strong teams are represented then it could be the spot of the winning attack of the day.

The Côte de la Roche-Faucons (1.3km at 11%) comes next and again offers those not wanting to wait until the end of the race to spice things up. Over the top only 19kms so a chase will have to be organised quickly to bring anyone ahead back: especially when the following few kilometres are all down hill.

Last but not least, the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2km at 8.6%) can split the bunch again on the run in to the line. If not, it will all come down to the final uncategorised ramp in Ans.

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Although it isn’t very tough when taken alone, once you consider everything else that the riders will have faced then the 1.4km rise will see gaps in the peloton. There are a few hundred metres of flat once the riders turn left at the top of the rise, but if a rider has a few seconds gap then it is race over. Will it come down to a reduced sprint?

L for Legs

Liege will be one of the longest races on the calendar for many of the riders here and it is this length combined with the rolling terrain that makes it very difficult for a lot in the peloton to win. For a rider to go well, ideally they have had to show in the past that they can cope with the distance so an ok result in any of the monuments are almost a necessity but obviously the ones with more climbing take precedent, i.e. here or Lombardia.

Every winner here in the past 5 years has competed at this race a minimum of 3 times before they have gone on to take glory. So course knowledge but also effort management are important factors to consider too.

However, statistics and records are there to be broken and we’ve had riders go very well on their first attempts here: Alaphilippe’s 2nd place in 2015 springs to mind.

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Nonetheless, experience often shines through so those at the head of the betting reflect that with Valverde, Alaphilippe, Nibali and Matthews as the favourites.

No doubt though you will have read a lot of previews the past few days that go into great detail about them and their chances, so as I don’t want to bore you (and I’m short of time), I will avoid them and just focus on 4 other riders who I think might have a chance.

The Countdown Approach

One from the top, one from the middle and two from the bottom…

Romain Bardet.

This is the Frenchman’s 6th appearance at the race, having previously finished 13th (2013) / 10th (2014) / 6th (2015) / 13th (2016) / 6th (2017). Not a bad string of results, he seems to be very consistent here! He was an outsider of mine for Fleche, a race in which he finished 9th at, but apparently he suffered from a crash not too long before the final ascent of the Huy so it makes the result an even better one. 2018 has been a solid year for the AG2R rider and although he hasn’t performed too well in stage races, he has really shone in one-day races. In the 7 one-day races he has competed in so far he’s finished in the top 10 on 6 occasions: the only time he didn’t achieve that feat was in the not very climber friendly (unless you’re Valverde) Dwars Door Vlaanderen. Not bad! The longer ascents of Liege should suit him very well. I’m intrigued to see how he approaches the race but no doubt we will see him attacking at some point towards the closing stages of the race. He’s one who might take advantage of the “big favourites” marking each other.

Tiesj Benoot.

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He finally got the monkey off his back after taking a great win at Strade Bianche earlier in the year. In general he has really taken a step up in the level of his performances and he seems to be moulding himself into someone who can go well on a variety of terrain. This was highlighted with a 4th place on GC in Tirreno which was closely followed by successive top 10 places in the WT Belgian one-day races. This will be his first attempt at Liege which does make it harder for him to go well here but given he has been at the pointy end in Flanders before, I think he should be ok. Deliberately missing Roubaix to focus on the hilly Ardennes, the past week hasn’t gone exactly to plan for him. He DNFd Amstel after having a bit of an off day before working for team-mates in Fleche, possibly still recovering from whatever made him struggle in Amstel. However, this is the parcours that should suit his characteristics and I think we will see him near the head of the action tomorrow. Lotto Soudal have plenty of strong riders so they should approach the day aggressively, can Benoot make the right move?

Stephen Cummings.

The most difficult rider to read in the peloton, the British champion arrives at the race not named as one of Dimension Data’s potential winners in their press release. When has that ever stopped him going well though? Cummings set his sights on an unnamed Monument last year (according to Brian Smith) but he didn’t really shine in either San Remo or Lombardia so potentially it is Liege he will be gunning for this time round. He has raced here before, finishing in 19th place in his last outing back in 2016. Theoretically he should go well on the rolling terrain but as I’ve suggested above, it is hard to tell where he is at form wise and if he can actually be bothered to try. His best result this year on an open road stage is 73rd in Milan Sanremo, with a 92nd place on the third stage of Itzulia the only other time he has finished within the top 100. An almost impressive achievement! Clearly the form is good…

Sam Oomen.

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A talented rider, it is incredible to think he is still only 22 years old. Liege is a race that Oomen has competed at twice already, finishing 26th on his first attempt in 2016. It was an 11th place in Lombardia last year that caught my eye in regards to his classics potential; no mean feat for someone so young to go well in that brutally tough race. With his first Grand Tour in his legs, he should reap the benefits of it this year. Tomorrow he will most likely play a supporting role for Matthews but he will probably be used in an attacking sense so that no one else from the team has to work behind. We have seen in previous races that early attacks stick if enough of the stronger teams are represented; could Oomen get lucky? He has the punch on the slopes to fancy his chances in a group of “second-tier” riders.

Prediction

A tactical race with some of the bigger favourites marking each other, leading to a bold attack from Romain Bardet paying off and securing the Frenchman his biggest ever win.

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Betting

Tweeted out my selections yesterday.

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Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win La Doyenne tomorrow? Will we see a surprise or will the favourites be at the fore? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.