Today’s Recap

Rain, but not at the right time for us. The riders got soaked early on in the stage but it was dry at the finish. However, the organisers still decided to neutralise the final lap in terms of GC. All of this combined made it a lot less chaotic and the fastest sprinter in the race won: Greipel. It was too easy for him. Although a lot can be said for his team, Lotto Soudal did an excellent job controlling the last 20km for him.

Modolo was in an okay position but just lost the wheel in the final turn. It looked as if he got a bit of a bump. Disappointing from him, particularly as Ferrari did a good job. Oh well.

As @cyclingmole pointed out on Twitter, the Italians will definitely look forward to the final week. Now that Greipel (and possibly Demare and Ewan) is going home.

With the sprint stages over for the foreseeable future, the GC boys come out to play tomorrow.

The Route

After today’s pan-flat stage, we’re back to the grippy stuff with the first 4-star rated road stage of the Giro (with the only other being the TT in Chianti).

“This is a very challenging mountain stage. The route takes in 4 categorised climbs in a row, with just a few stretches to let the bunch catch their breath. The first 45 km run on apparently flat ground, and are followed by three typical pre-Alpine climbs, marked by narrow roadway, high gradients and endless turns, both while climbing and while descending.” (Road book extract)

The final two climbs look incredibly tough.

Averaging 8.9% for just over 7.5kms, this is a brute! If anyone looks to be struggling here, the other GC contenders will put the hammer down. Expect something from Movistar or Astana to try to isolate Jungels.

A tricky descent leads into the final climb, a Cat 2 ascent up to Valle.

This climb isn’t any easier gradient wise, it’s just shorter. 8.5% for 5km this time round.

After that it’s a descent and a flat run into the finish line.

“The last 5 km are deceptively flat and actually run downhill all the way to Cividale del Friuli. The route features a few twists and turns over the last 1,000 m; the home straight (approx. 400 m in length) is on 7-m wide asphalt road.” (Road Book)

Weather Watch

With my weather predictions being about as good as my stage predictions, I’ve decided to change who I’m getting my info from. Surely Weather.com has to be right?!

As you can see, it looks to be a mixed back with the possibility of showers. Although, at less than 30% then they don’t seem too likely!

*Awaits downpour tomorrow*

How will the race pan out?

With most stages like this, much will depend on the focus from the GC teams. If they decide to go all out then it’ll be a day for them and the current top 10 of the race. If not, then a break will win like we saw in stage 10.

I think we’ll get a breakaway victory tomorrow. The reason I suggest this is that with an even tougher stage the following day (Stage 14 – rated 5 star) some of the GC teams will not want to go too deep. Furthermore, I haven’t been wholly convinced by the squads of Astana and Movistar. The former rode very aggressively last year, but haven’t been as bullish in this years edition. Have they been waiting for this stage? I’m not so sure.

Breakaway Contenders

Like I’ve said in previous stage previews, to be successful in the break the rider has to be a good climber and no threat on GC.

The flat start to the day will ensure that it will be a fast first 50km, as everyone attempts to get in the break. Therefore, it also helps if the rider is relatively strong on the flat.

We’ll no doubt see the regular contenders giving it a go: Wellens, De Marchi, Cunego etc. Along with riders from the other pro-continental/Italian teams.

Like last time, I’m going to highlight three riders who could give it a go:

1. Primoz Roglic – The Slovenian has already won a stage which is a clear indication of some decent form (although the conditions benefited him). A strong climber (5th on GC in Algarve), he’s clearly recovered from his crash. If he gets away, he will be tough to beat. The only concern for him getting away is that there is a good chance that he’ll have to work in support of Kruijswijk.
2. Matteo Busato – He’s been incredibly good at the start of the season but hasn’t shown that much here. Might not be the best of climbers, but in a breakaway it’s sometimes just the strongest who wins and he’ll be hard to beat. If he can keep up with the rest of the breakaway, he’ll definitely fancy himself in a sprint.
3. Moreno Moser – Another attacking rider who seems to be on good form at the moment. With Uran not going so well, Moser could be given some freedom. He’ll want to improve on his 3rd place into Arezzo.

Prediction

As I said above I think a breakaway wins. From those three highlighted above I think Moser will continue the good family name and get his maiden Grand Tour win!

There is a chance we get a GC showdown. If so, look to the strongest on the final climb yesterday; Nibali, Chaves and Valverde.

Betting

Another day to choose your breakaway lottery tickets and hope for the best!

I’m going to suggest:

0.3pt Roglic @200/1 (PP)

0.3pt Busato @250/1 (365)

0.4pt Moser @200/1 (365)

Look out for other bookmakers as they might price more generously. I’ll probably have a few selections on the BF Exchange as well, because you can normally get better odds there.

Will go in-play if it’s going to be more of a GC day.

Hope you enjoyed the preview, we should be in for a much more exciting stage than today’s offering! Any feedback/discussion on Twitter would be great as usual. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Today’s Recap

Definitely not as easy a day as some thought. A big crash and the only categorised climb ripped the race apart, with only GC contenders left at the front over the summit.

Amador attacked, Jungels countered. Then some stalling behind saw more riders rejoin. Ulissi drove clear of the group behind up the final climb, catching Amador and Jungels. The latter drove the group, trying to get as much time over the rest of the GC favourites behind. Ulissi sprinted for another fantastic win, his second of the race.

*I apologise in advance if this is shorter and more blunt than normal, I’m terribly hungover*

The Route

Flat. Very, very flat.

This is one of those stages where if you miss the first 180km, don’t be too concerned!

The most interesting part of this stage will be the circuit that they cover in the finishing town of Bibione.

It’s a very technical closing circuit, with lots of 90-degree turns that will kill the momentum of the riders. Positioning will be crucial in the final lap. But so will bravery, because if the riders are willing to take risks through the corners then they can save a lot of energy/drop those behind. This is particularly true if the person behind isn’t as confident and loses the wheel.

Weather Watch

Another reason why the risk-takers of the peloton will more than likely be rewarded is due to the weather forecast. Like much of this Giro, we’ve been given some chance of rain at the finish line. However, it seems various outlets are confident of this, which makes it seem more likely! *Fingers Crossed*

The rain will make the closing circuit even more difficult for the riders, with more precarious corners etc.

Some of the riders will not like the look of this.

Who are the stage contenders?

Let’s start with the only sprinter left in this race who’s won a stage: Greipel. The fastest and most powerful rider left (after Kittel’s withdrawal) on paper he should be the favourite. However, as the cliché goes, nothing is ever won on paper. I don’t think Greipel will win tomorrow. Mainly due to the inclement weather conditions as Greipel goes missing when the conditions get tricky. I said something similar for the Stage 7 preview. We didn’t get the rain that time round, I’m more confident  we’ll get it this time. Greipel won’t podium.

Nizzolo was second that day and has to be considered here. He won the bunch sprint today, so is clearly going well. I’m just not convinced by his lead-out.

Demare probably has the longest lead-out left. They didn’t get it right on Stage 7 and a few of them went down/are unknown quantities after today’s crash so I’d avoid him. I also question if he would want to risk a severe injury, considering this is the Giro and not the Tour. Therefore…

Someone who will take risks tomorrow is Modolo. Again, like the Stage 7 preview, Modolo has all the credentials to go well here. He’s an excellent bike handler so will be able to manage the sharp turns perfectly. Furthermore, in Ferrari, he has an exceptional lead-out man for this type of sprint. Modolo has to start as joint-favourite at least for this (with Nizzolo) in my opinion.

Who else can compete?

Ewan looks the most suitable candidate. His criterium based background will hold him in good stead for tomorrow. Being young as well, he’s not as afraid and has a larger incline to take risks.

I guess the likes of Hofland, Trentin and maybe Ruffoni, Arndt and Belleti could get involved.

Leigh Howard also might fancy a go at it (after his impromptu fishing trip today). He won a crit-style race at the Clasica de Almeria earlier in the year.

Prediction

Modolo wins. The master of the tricky finale.

Ferrari will once again give him an excellent lead-out and he’ll get the first Italian sprint win at this year’s Giro.

Ewan and Nizzolo will round out the podium (in that order).

Betting

Pretty simple stage betting wise. There is no way that the break will succeed as it’s the sprinters final chance before we get to stage 17 (maybe) or the final stage into Torino.

When I tweeted it out he was available at 10/1. He’s now priced at 9/1 with Betway, but is lower elsewhere. I’d say he’s value down to 5/1.

Hope you enjoyed today’s racing as we’re more than likely in for a snooze-fest tomorrow! I plan on being productive and writing the bulk of my preview tomorrow during the race, so it will just be a case of waiting on odds, so it should be out a lot earlier! Apologies again for the shorter length, I’m hungover and there’s not really that much to say. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Rest-day Recap

A rain affected ITT meant that those who went out first had the advantage for the stage. Roglic (2nd on Stage 1) managed to win, with Brandle and Stake Laengen rounding off the podium. Unfortunately for us, neither Oss nor Quinziato gave it a nudge and by the time Boaro started, the heavens had opened.

In terms of the GC contenders, the biggest gainer has to be Landa. He only lost 7 seconds to Nibali and actually gained time on Valverde. This was particularly surprising, considering most people (myself included) thought he’d lose at least 1:30 minutes. I was also pleasantly surprised with the Smiling Assasin’s (Chaves) time loss. He’s one of my favourite riders, so it’s good to see him not so far back! It leaves us with a nicely poised GC going into the second and third weeks.

Special mention has to go to the two Etixx boys; Jungels and Brambilla. The former put in a storming ride during less than pleasant conditions, finishing a very credible 6th place. You’d have to assume if the weather was the same for everyone then he’d have won the TT. It looked for a while that he was going into the Maglia Rosa. That was until the aforementioned Brambilla put in an equally brave ride, with a daredevil descent to hold onto the jersey by one second.

Litte side note here.

As much as I’m not a fan of Zakarin’s past, I did feel sorry for him after Sunday. He looked to be absolutely gunning it but then the mechanicals and crashes took him out of it. A real shame, he’d have been up there in the top 3 on GC just now. At least it means we’ll get some attacking riding from him later in the race!

Anyway, onto stage 10.

The Route

A tough, tough day in the saddle! Up and down all day, with a summit finish. The riders won’t be looking forward to it, especially as some of them won’t respond well to being back in the saddle after the rest day.

Three cat-3 and one cat-1 climbs makes this the hardest stage of the Giro so far. At 219km it’s not exactly a short stage either!

The Cat-1 climb up to Pian del Falco can be split into three parts.

After a tough opening; 4.5km averaging 6.9%, we get an easier section of 7km averaging 1.8%, with an incredibly difficult finale, 4km at 8.9% with 13% ramps thrown in for good measure! Will we see some GC fireworks here?

“The final kilometres comprise a fast and technical descent that leads from the KOM summit to Fanano. The descent can be divided into two quite steep parts: the first one runs on large roads, with just a few bends, and leads into a second one where the road is narrower at points, and which twists and turns all the way up into urban Fanano. Next on the route is the final 7-km climb, with gradients of 5-6%, on a wide yet winding road that leads into the final 100-m long, uphill home straight, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road.” (Road book extract) 

The final climb itself isn’t the most testing in the World, not peaking anymore than 6%. The gradients are fairly consistent too so the riders can get into a nice rhythm.

The real question is how many of them will be left to set a nice tempo?

Weather Watch

It looks like we’re set for another day of “will it, won’t it?” in terms of the rain. Some weather sites are suggesting that it won’t rain on the riders at the finish tomorrow, but the main consensus is that we’re in for another grim day.

With the rainfall predicted near the finish line, it will make that fast and technical descent off of the Cat-1 even more difficult, and it will reward those riders willing to take risks.

Break or no break?

Normally I’d say this stage is 100% a breakaway day. However, with the GC margins being so small after the TT, we might see some teams try to control the break. Hoping that their GC challenger could snap up some bonus seconds on the line. Astana or Movistar are the two teams most likely to do this.

Therefore, I make it 70/30 that the break makes it.

Breakaway Contenders

Let’s look at who could get in the break first of all.

Like I said in one of the previous posts, to increase the likelihood of a successful break then it needs to have a few components: Italians, those far down on GC and riders from some GC teams. I’m sure I mentioned those things in the preview where Brambilla went on to win, throwing out the idea of those who are more than 10 minutes down on GC. However, that was a once off and normal service should be resumed here.

Davide Malacarne (Astana) was in the break the last time the stage finished in Sestola (in 2014). He fits all three of the categories so could be a potential rider to get away. It all depends on Astana’s tactics and if they want to go all mountain-train crazy like last year. Where they absolutely decimated the peloton. I think they’ll pass the buck to other teams and try to get a satellite rider in the break, in-case it looks as if it’s going to be brought back. Agnoli could also be a good candidate for them.

Movistar will no doubt try something similar too with Herrada or Betancur being the most likely options. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get Visconti in the break so that Etixx have to chase.

Apart from those two teams, expect the usual suspects: someone from your Italian ProConti teams, Wellens, De Marchi, Cunego, a Lampre rider etc.

It’s really hard to narrow down and decide who will give it a go. Another few names I’d like to throw around are:

1. Matteo Busato – He’s been climbing well this year so far and packs a good up-hill sprint. Made it over with the first group on stage 4 (showing that form), but now is 19 minutes down. He should be given some leeway.
2. Ian Boswell – Was in a tough breakaway at the Vuelta last year, held on for third on that stage behind Landa and Aru. 30 minutes down this race, if he gets the nod from Sky then he could go well.
3. Georg Preidler – With TomDum not seeming his best and saying that he wants to lose time so that he can go stage hunting later in the race. It frees up someone in the Giant team to go on the attack. Preidler seems the best fit for tomorrow’s stage.

What if we get a GC battle royale?

Hopefully we’ll get lots of attacking if that’s the case. Riders further down GC will be given more freedom as Valverde/Nibali/Landa etc all mark each other.

I expect Zakarin, Chaves and Firsanov to try something.

All of this of course depends if: A) They make it over the Cat-1 in contact with the leaders and B) make it down the descent in contact.

With the type of finish that it is, Valverde is the rightful favourite. I would not be surprised though if they tried the old 1-2 and Amador actually attacked up the road. The same can be said for Nibali and Fuglsang.

Prediction

As you can probably tell, I’m once again struggling with this stage. So for an outright prediction them I’m going to have to go with the two situations again. From a GC group, I think Chaves will be able to get away on the final climb and take another Grand Tour stage win.

However, as mentioned above, I think there’s a good chance that the break will make it. For that, my lucky ticket will be Matteo Busato. The Italian climbed expetionally well at Trentino and has continued the form here. With a fast up-hill sprint, if he hangs on to his fellow escapees wheels then he should pip them to the line.

***Also, it’s Sonny Colbrelli’s birthday tomorrow. So I’m hoping to see him involved at some point. It will take a lot of luck for him to win a stage like this!***

Betting

From a betting perspective, this stage is definitely a breakaway lottery selection. Followed by in-play on GC candidates tomorrow.

Backing some of those mentioned above.

0.1pt Malacarne @ 300/1 (PP)

0.1pt Agnoli @ 300/1 (PP)

0.2pt Boswell @ 200/1 (Boyles or PP).

0.3pt Busato @ 125/1 (Various)

0.3pt Preidler @ 80/1 (PP or Lads)

If you want to, then go EW. But for a breakaway stage like this, in my opinion it’s better to spread your options and just go for outright. If they look like they could win then you can always Lay your bet on the Betfair Exchange in-play.

I’ll be able to watch tomorrow’s stage fully so I’ll be making some in-play recommendations over on my Twitter @JamieHaughey.

Congrats if you made it this far, hopefully tomorrow’s stage will live up to expectations! Enjoy it wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.