GP de Plouay 2018 Preview

The last “hilly” one-day race of the year returns tomorrow, as the women’s peloton gears up towards the World Championships in Innsbruck which start in just under a month. GP de Plouay is often one of the most hotly contested races of the year, always providing some tense and tactical action. In 2017 we saw Deignan and Ferrand Prevot escape late on in the day, working together until the final few hundred metres where the strength of the Boels rider would ultimately shine through, as she took a comfortable win in the end.

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Ferrand Prevot held on for second, with Mitchelton’s Sarah Roy taking home the reduced bunch sprint for third place.

With Deignan not here this year, for obvious reasons, there is a chance we could see a new winner tomorrow. However, with Marianne Vos in her current form then we might not! Or of course Eugenia Bujak could repeat that fairly surprising 2016 win but that is a little less likely…

First though, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A carbon copy of last year’s route pretty much. No excuses for not knowing it!

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The riders will take on a circuit around Plouay with the focal point of the course being two climbs. The first of which, the Côte de Bois de Kerlucas, comes pretty much from the gun and will kick the action off straight away. It’s not an overly difficulty climb at an average of 5.1% for a kilometre, but expect it to be raced almost full gas every lap.

An important thing to note too is that the road is never really “flat” with it either gradually descending or rising throughout the route. Combining that with the narrow and quite often twisting roads, it is a tough race to keep control of.

The most decisive part of the route though is the final climb: the Côte de Ty Marrec.

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Again, it is not an overly difficult climb but its place on the course means that is raced very fast. With only 3.5km from the summit to the finish line, it means that if a strong group of riders escapes here and co-operates well, then there is no chance to bring them back.

That closing 3.5km is mainly made up of very gradual descent before the final couple hundred metres where the road kicks up ever so slightly to the line. If a group comes to the finish together, that slight rise makes the timing of the sprint more important.

How do you stop Vos?

The question on everyone’s lips going into this race. The Waowdeals rider is on sublime form at the moment, having won in Vargarda and followed that up by just casually winning every stage in Norway, along with the GC, obviously. It wasn’t like she struggled to win the stages too, just scraping by. Nope, quite the opposite really! On the final day of racing in Norway she closed down at least 20 small attacks by my reckoning and she still had enough of a kick to win the bunch sprint. If anyone takes her to the line tomorrow, I don’t care who it is, they lose.

It could be argued that her team is her weakness, but I expect Rowe and Rooijakkers to last quite a while into the race with their leader, especially the former. However, it is possible to isolate her with some aggressive racing. The only issue then is that any aggressive racing will most likely isolate some of the other riders.

Vos has countered this isolation in the past few races by just going on the attack herself, because why not? Whittling down a group to a much more manageable size means that she can follow almost every attack and play the numbers game better. Pulling the old “you have more chance to win now there are less of us” to her fellow escapees when really that isn’t the case.

The only way to beat her in this race is to isolate her and have numbers of your own in the front group. If that is the case, send off repeated attacks until she can’t follow or decides not to follow a group – while the other riders sit on behind her. As strong as she is, she isn’t the best TT rider over a longer distance so it would be hard for her to bring back a group of 3 or so out ahead.

The issue with this plan is that there aren’t many teams here that I could envisage having numerous riders in a front group where Vos doesn’t have a team-mate with her.

Anyway, here goes nothing (probably) and a list of three riders to keep your eye on throughout the day…

Cecilie Ludwig.

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Fast becoming a fan-favourite, the young Danish rider put in a very aggressive and impressive performance at La Course where she went solo on the penultimate climb but was ultimately caught near the top of the last ascent of the day. Equally impressive was her colourful outburst at the end of the stage which was one of the moments of the year: true passion and pride for her sport. Following on from La Course, she was one of the more attacking riders in the recent Crescent Vargarda, where she stuck to Vos’ wheel like glue. Cervélo do have Lepistö for a potential sprint but I think we’ll see Ludwig and Moolman on the attack throughout the afternoon and they arguably form one of the stronger duos to take the race to Vos.

Emilia Fahlin.

In a little bit of a purple patch at the moment, she finished on the podium on every stage in Norway recently. Having only done this race once before back in 2017 where she finished a lowly 47th over 6 minutes down, it will take a much better performance from her this time to compete. However, like I said, she seems to be going well and it is the type of course that should in theory suit her as a strong rider. With Brennauer, Longo Borghini and Cordon-Ragot, it will be interesting to see how Wiggle play it. I would expect them to be attacking and after last week’s results, Fahlin would fancy her chances in a sprint of escapees.

Amy Pieters.

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Having her best season to date, Pieters arrives here as part of a strong Boels squad, standard. Another who has not done this event many times before (2010 and 2014 were her only participations), it will be interesting to see how she copes with the parcours. I think she’ll be perfectly fine as she has shown more than enough in the past to suggest that she can deal with 1km climbs at the gradients we have here. Moreover, I expect Boels to be incredibly attacking tomorrow afternoon and I don’t expect them to wait for a sprint. Pieters possibly could be that sprint option for them but I think they would rather put on a show and try to split things up before that. As we’ve seen in the past, Pieters is one of the best in a sprint from a small group, but will she be there?

Prediction

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Was it ever really going to be anyone else?

Coverage

You’ll be able to follow the race via some hashtags before the live coverage starts. As to what hashtags those will be, your guess is as good as mine as several teams have used different ones. It looks like “#GPPlouay” and “#Plouay” are the most used options.

Live tv coverage starts at 15’15 local time and will be available on the following channels.

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Hopefully you’ll be able to tune in at some point throughout the afternoon.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Can anyone stop Vos? As always, any Retweets or shares etc are greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Road Race World Championships Preview – Bergen 2017

After some strong performances in the individual time trial on Tuesday, the rider’s focus now switches to the road race on Saturday afternoon.

Last year in Doha we had a large bunch sprint that was won rather surprisingly by Denmark’s Amalie Dideriksen.

Cycling: 89th Road World Championships 2016 / Women Elite

Pre-race favourite Wild could only manage second, with Finland’s Lepistö getting up for third. Two of those three are here this year, with Wild as a reserve for the Dutch team, will they be up at the pointy end come the finish tomorrow?

First, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

The women will face 8 laps of the circuit around Bergen, totalling 152.8km; which makes it one of the longer races the peloton will face all year.

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As for the circuit itself, it can be described as rolling with very little flat all day. Taken in isolation it is not too difficult but it can be made hard by some aggressive racing.

BergenRR Circuit

You can view my interactive profile for the circuit here.

The most challenging part of the route is of course “Salmon Hill”; I guess the sponsors wanted to get something out of the week! However, the road does ramp upwards before then and the climb can be taken as a 3.7km test.

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It’s not steep like the climb we had in the time trial, but it is long enough to cause some splits in the bunch. Will a rider try to take advantage of some of the sharp ramps to get an advantage?

With 10km to go from the crest, it could be tough for someone to stay away though. A small group definitely has a better chance.

Conversely, those final 10km allow for a chase to get organised and reel it in. “Organised” is the key word there though! In both the road races today, the chase was not coherent enough and the escapees held on for victory. Will something similar happen tomorrow? I’ll guess we’ll have to wait and see…

How will the race pan out – Dominant Dutch?

As is often the case when we arrive at World Championship’s the Dutch bring a formidable team. We saw this last year when they had a superstar squad in support of Kirsten Wild, but one that would be allowed to chase an opportunity if it arose. Unfortunately it didn’t work out last year so they’ll be hoping to bring another World title home this time.

I could feasibly make an argument for all of their starting 8 riders to win the race, although some would be more farfetched than others. Nonetheless, it just highlights their immense strength in-depth. I’m not sure they go into the race with an out-and-out leader; possibly Vos might be kept back for a bunch sprint. But then again, Blaak or Pieters could fill that role if the 3x-former champion is allowed to do what she wants. Van Vleuten and van der Breggen were exceptional in the time trial and both clearly are in great form. I imagine they will be the prime attackers, hoping to split the race up on Salmon Hill. Can anyone follow?

I think if we see a group escape in the closing laps that has 2 Dutch riders within it then that will be game over and the winner will come from there.

The one reason I say this is because no other team has an Ellen van Dijk. She is incredible and can bring back strong breakaways herself by setting a strong tempo at the head of the peloton.

There are a few teams who might hope for a 40-50 rider sprint, such as Denmark, USA and maybe Australia, but I don’t think anyone has the firepower to bring back a strong move on their own. They’ll need a lack of cohesion up ahead, and a lot of co-operation behind for that to happen.

The next to consider is that if the smaller group will come to the line and sprint it out, or if it will fragment and split again. That of course all depends on numbers and team representatives, but I think it will split into a smaller group which will battle it out for the win.

Possible Contenders

Aside from the Dutch team, there are plenty of riders who will love the route tomorrow but the following list won’t be excessive, so apologies if I have missed someone you were looking/hoping for.

Coryn Rivera.

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The US pocket rocket has had a great first year racing for a European team. She’s proven that she is much more than a fast sprinter though as her climbing has developed a lot. In the Ardennes she was able to follow the best until the very final stages of the race. I don’t think the US team will be banking on it coming back for a big bunch sprint tomorrow so both Rivera and Guarnier will be given license to attack. If the Sunweb rider does come to the line in a small group, she has to be the favourite.

Hannah Barnes.

The British team have one of the favourites in the shape of Deignan but her form is unknown just now after having her appendix removed. I think they’ll ride an aggressive race and hope to get two riders into any strong move that goes off the front. With everyone marking Deignan, then Barnes could make the final selection. She performed above expectations in the TT so she is in good shape. Not as strong a climber as some of the others, she won’t be too far off the pace but will hope that the final selection will have gone before Salmon Hill. With a fast sprint after a tough day, she is an outsider to keep an eye on!

Pauline Ferrand Prevot.

Former World Champion and arguably the rider with one of the best season’s of all time back in 2014/2015 when she held 3 separate World titles, the Frenchwoman has a good chance of going well again here. A pretty uneventful season due injury and illness; she’s only managed 8 race days so far; picked up again at Plouay where she finished second to Deignan. Since then she has went on to podium at the mountain bike Worlds and could really have challenged Neff for gold if it had not been for an untimely puncture. She can climb and with a fast sprint from a small group, she won’t be afraid to bring it to the line.

Shara Gillow.

A rider who I have grown fond of over this season (it has absolutely nothing to do with her being in my season long fantasy team, I promise), the Aussie can climb with some of the best in the world on her day. I expect their squad to be attacking all day and Gillow is certainly someone who can follow attacks on the climbs. She lacks any kind of sprint really, but she makes up for that by being a strong time trial rider. Something I’m sure Carlton will remind you of tomorrow! If we get a group out front and she times her attack perfectly, it might just stick. Look out for her and her now standard snood off the front!

Leah Kirchmann.

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Another one of those riders who is a solid climber but also packs a good sprint. She recorded a top 15 back at Liege in the Spring which highlights her ability on the short climbs. However, she might find it difficult to follow some of the strong climbers if they go crazy on Salmon Hill. Nonetheless, if she can remain close to the front and there is some type of regrouping then she is a danger in the sprint.

As I mentioned above, of course there are several riders who could contest but I’ve only cherry-picked a handful for the preview. It should be an open race but I don’t think the winner will be a “surprise”.

Prediction

The Dutch to have ‘too many cooks’ and with everyone expecting them to chase down every move as the strongest team; Pauline Ferrand Prevot to take advantage and win her second road title, signalling that her career is back on track!

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Van der Breggen to pick up her second second of the week, with Barnes coming home just behind them in third.

Betting

Three selections from me to cover a few options; PFP as my favourite, Barnes as an outsider, then Gillow as a solo arrival. I’ve already backed Barnes at 300/1 but that price is long gone. I think the 66/1 available is still worth a punt though.

1.5pt EW PFP @ 20/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral (would take 16s)

0.75pt EW Barnes @ 66/1 with SkyBet/PP/BF (would take 50s)

0.5pt WIN Gillow @ 150/1 with Bet365 (would take 100s)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Can anyone outsmart the Dutch team? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Ladies Tour of Norway 2017 Preview

Another race to step up to Women’s World Tour level this year, the Ladies Tour of Norway celebrates only its 4th edition in 2017.

Last year as a 2.1 race, we saw a very dominant Rabo-Liv team take all three spots on the podium at the end of the Tour, with Lucinda Brand finishing ahead of De Jong and Koster.

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The current champion isn’t going to be here to defend her crown but with the step up to WT level, the startlist is stacked with talent waiting to take over.

First of all though, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders over the next 4 days.

The Route

Prologue.

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Full profile viewable here.

The race starts with a short and explosive prologue on Thursday evening. Pretty much pan-flat, this is an effort that will suit the strong riders of the peloton, but also those who can hold a high power over a short period of time, i.e. some of the sprinters!

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The circuit is quite technical with a few tight turns involved over the course, meaning being able to power out of them and get back up to full speed quickly is a massive advantage. We’ve not seen a prologue at this race since back in 2014 when Vos won a very similar circuit in Halden. Can she repeat that on the opening day? Given her current form, it is definitely a possibility!

There is a chance of rain later in the day which could make things a bit of a lottery.

With such a short effort, there are a lot of riders who could be involved in the shake up at the end of the day.

I’ll go with Wiggle rider Annette Edmondson to take the win though. She won the prologue at the BeNe Tour earlier in the year, although that admittedly was half the length, but she is a rider with the perfect mix of explosiveness and sustained power to compete here. I mean, she is a pursuit medalist on the track after all!

Stage 1.

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Full profile viewable here.

A stage that is similar to what we saw in the Women’s Tour earlier in the year, where the road is constantly up or down all day. Now, these undulations normally aren’t too much in terms of length and gradient, but it is their repeated nature that could wear down the bunch.

Another thing that could make the day more selective than it may initially look on paper is the weather. Friday looks to be a pretty grim day and in the finish town of Mysen there is a chance of rain throughout the afternoon. The same can be said for elsewhere on the course and it could turn it into a race of attrition.

Once the riders reach Mysen they will face a 6.2km circuit that they will tackle three times.

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The circuit isn’t overly tough so some of the sprinters teams might want to control it but there are a few points where the opportunists might want to launch their attacks. It looks very balanced in that regard!

The most obvious launchpad is the 500m section (2.5 -> 3km) that averages 4.5%. With only 3km of the circuit left, if a strong trio or quartet of riders escapes here then they could be hard to bring back.

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As for the run in itself, the road does rise ever so slightly during 300m preceding the final turn you see above, where the riders will take a left and face then final 250m finishing straight.

Will it be a bunch sprint or a small escape group who fight out stage honours?

Given that there are only 4 stages in the race (including the prologue) then there isn’t much time for anyone wanting to make a tilt at the GC crown to make their move. Therefore I do think we’ll see a relatively attacking race on the opening road stage, where the bunch is whittled down due to the combination of a fast pace and bad weather. Once we get near the closing circuit we might have around 60 riders left at the head of the race.

From there, a group of riders from the “stronger” teams will escape and fight out the stage.

I’ll go with Leah Kirchmann for the win. After a breakthrough 2016 the Canadian has had a much slower 2017 so far, but her results have been steadily picking up some progress and headed in the right direction. She was third at the recent Vargarda and packing a punchy sprint she might just go better here!

Stage 2.

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Full profile viewable here.

A straightforward day, but a relatively long one at 144km. There is a lot more elevation gain than what we have on Stage 1, but the majority of it all comes early on in the stage, with the final 40km not featuring too much in the way of climbing.

The closing circuit looks as follows, with a few short rises in it.

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It is of course a possibility we could see someone try an attack on the circuit and hope to break the group up. The section between 3.5km and 5km on the image above will be crucial in terms of escape formation.

If the sprinters miss out the previous day, they won’t on this stage. The opposite situation is of course a possibility whereas the sprinters take the spoils on Stage 1 with an escape forming on Stage 2.

I still think that this stage is most likely to come down to a sprint though.

With that said, I’ll go with Lotta Leipistö to take stage honours. She is on incredible form at the moment and will be able to handle the few small lumps we have in the finale. Her finish (or should I say Finnish…I’ll get my coat) sprint in Vargarda was incredibly powerful. If she pulls off something like that again then there won’t be many who can beat her.

Stage 3.

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Full profile viewable here.

Arguably the Queen stage due to its length and elevation gain, the road seems to be constantly up or down all day. Just before the riders reach the final circuit, they will complete an 8km drag that averages 1.5%. Now, I don’t expect this to cause any gaps, although the final 300m do average 7%, instead, it should be a wearing down process if some of the stronger teams really push the pace on. With 120kms in their legs already, I think a few riders might be caught out by it.

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The closing circuit is very technical, with few really long straights. The old cliché of “out of sight, out of mind” rings true here! As for the altimetry, it can be split into; gradual rise, small hill, gradual descent, flat finish.

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Will anyone try to attack on the steep 10% ramps of the climb and use the twisting streets to stay away?!

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We even have some cobbles (well, paving stones) on part of the descent. This could become treacherous if the predicted bad weather arrives.

As for who might take stage honours? I’ll go with a Van Dijk late attack!

GC Battle

This is a tough race to call because the terrain itself isn’t overly difficult and all of the road stages in theory could end in a sprint if enough teams want it to.

Therefore the race could be decided by bonus seconds and how well a rider does in the opening prologue.

Yet, I think we’ll see some fast and very attacking racing this week, because the parcours isn’t too difficult. It is perfectly balanced in a position where a team can make some of the short climbs seem really hard due to the continuous rolling nature of the terrain. Furthermore, when the predicted rain and bad weather is thrown into the mix, we could see a tough race of attrition.

So for a rider to compete here they need to be good enough to be close to the head of the race after the prologue, fast enough to pick up some bonus seconds, and strong enough to follow any moves after an attritional day of racing.

Some riders to conjure with then are Pieters, Lepistö, Van Dijk, Kopecky and Bronzini to name but a few!

I’ll go with a Marianne Vos GC win though.

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The new European Champion is in sparkling form at the moment and she should be there on every stage. Her fast sprint means she should pick up bonus seconds and she’s not exactly a slouch in a prologue either. After all, she did win the opening prologue here back in 2014. A lot of riders will have her number marked, but with the way she is riding at the moment, it might be hard to stop her. She could feasibly win all 4 stages!

Coverage

Excellent news, we’ll be able to watch all of the road stages live with the final two hours of each stage being shown on Norweigian TV2. For those not in Norway, there should also be a stream on the UCI website and Youtube channel!

At the moment there is no information if we’ll see any of the prologue but the live images for the stages are as follows (local Norwegian time);

Stage 1: 16’30 – 18’30

Stage 2: 16’30 – 18’30

Stage 3: 14’30 – 16’30

The official hashtag looks to be #LTON17 so you’ll be able to follow race goings-on before the live images with that.

Anyway, thanks for reading as always and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win the race overall? Will we see an attacking race, or one where the sprinters teams control things? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Ride London Classique 2017 Preview

The “richest race in women’s cycling” returns for its 5th edition, but second at World Tour level.

Last year saw Kirsten Wild take home the big prize, winning a bunch sprint ahead of ahead of Kessler and Kirchmann.

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The race has a lot of positives going for it; big prize pool and live TV coverage are the main things.

However, the organisers can never seem to get the magical triple* just right, can they?

*Prize Money / Tv Coverage / Good Route

Which brings me onto another women’s preview where I annoyingly start by moaning and having a go at something, but after the nonsense TT (chase) we had last weekend, I’m past the point of caring!

Can we stop glorifying what are pretty much criterium races as progress for women’s cycling please? I’m not trying to be some internet white knight but they deserve better than this. Last week the opening “stage” of La Course was fantastic with the finish on the Izoard but making that only 67km was a little bit insulting. Having a criterium that is the same length and branding it as “spectacular” just takes the piss.

Why can the women not do the nearly the same route (the UCI limit of 155km will stop them doing it all) as the men, heck, they could even do the last 120km of it. I don’t understand why that is such a big issue for the organisers!

I miss the start of the season when we had races such as Strade Bianche etc, proper races that gave the women a chance to shine on a taxing course. Obviously, there needs to be a balance between having races for climbers and sprinters but I don’t see why races for the latter group have to be tamed down so much. Even at the recent Giro Rosa and Women’s Tour we had sprint stages of 100+km so there is no real reason why that couldn’t be the same here.

Anyway, let’s have a look at what’s getting me worked up.

The Route

A pretty much pan-flat 5.5km circuit around London taking in some famous sites. Maybe that’s what makes it “spectacular”?

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I was going to create a route profile on Strava but there is not much detail to know more than there are a few false flat sections!

I’m not entirely sure how many times they’ll be doing the circuit as there is no official information on the website as to the number of laps, but last year it was 12 x 5.5km laps so I imagine it will be the same this year.

The one positive from this route is that fans get to see their favourite female cyclists 12 times…

We should see a sprint at the end of the day, it has ended in that manner in each previous edition, but there is always that 5% chance that a strong group gets away and there is no co-operation behind. That is very unlikely though!

Sprint Contenders

Kirsten Wild.

The defending is champion is back here looking to take another victory. A little bit underwhelming so far this season, only taking two wins to her name. However, this type of racing suits her down to the ground and she can’t be ruled out. On form I would say it is hard for her to win, but given her nature I’d say it is very possible that she goes back to back!

Jolien d’Hoore.

The Belgian Bullet is arguably her biggest contender. The newly crowned Belgian champion got the better of Wild on two occasions in Chongming earlier this season. What’s even more impressive about that is that she was riding with an injury for the majority of the race! Having taken some more wins to her name since then, she has to start as the favourite in my opinion.

Chloe Hosking.

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After her breakthrough season last year, Hosking has continued her success in 2017; notching up a few wins, including a strong sprint victory at the Women’s Tour. All of this has resulted in her contract being extended with Alé Cipollini, the Italian team have a lot of faith in her. In last years race she was boxed in and never really got going so she’ll be hoping to go better this time. With a 1st and 2nd at La Course and Madrid Challenge respectively last season, it is clear Hosking goes well on these type of kermesse style races. Having a rider like Bastianelli to lead her out means she should begin her sprint from a good position. Will she be challenging for the win tomorrow?

Lotta Lepistö.

After a storming start to her season in the Spring, Lepistö returned to racing recently winning the National Championships double. More impressively though, she followed it up with a win and two second places at the tough Giro Rosa. A sign she is back up to race speed nicely! Her team support here isn’t great so she will have to go solo and jump onto another team’s lead-out but that is something she is capable of. She is a strong outside candidate for a good result.

Coryn Rivera.

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A stand out performer in the Spring, the Sunweb rider picked up a couple of podium places at the Giro. Used to criterium style races thanks to her US up-bringing she will be strong on a course like this. With riders such as Brand, Kirchmann and Van Dijk on her team, I would argue that she has the strongest lead-out in the race. Can she finish it off?

Marianne Vos.

A preview isn’t complete without the best female rider of her generation. After crashing out of the Women’s Tour, Vos returned to racing at the BeNe Ladies Tour. It didn’t start off ideally for her when she crashed in the opening prologue, but from there it went exceptionally well! She picked up two second places and two wins to take the overall GC title. Is another win on the cards here?

Alice Barnes.

The young Brit will be full of confidence after recently taking her first win at the aforementioned BeNe Ladies Tour. She escaped with Vos on the opening stage and managed to beat her in a two-up sprint, not bad! I have been very impressed with her this season so far and I think she’s capable of another good result here.

Every team has a rider or two who could be involved at the pointy end of the day so some riders to keep a look out for are;

Pieters/Blaak (Boels)

Cucinotta/Confalonieri (Lensworld)

Barnes/Guarischi (Canyon)

Fournier (FDJ)

Elvin (Orica)

Kessler/Moberg (Hitec)

Prediction

There are too many teams interested in a sprint for us not to get a bunch gallop. With Bronzini leading her out, d’Hoore should be placed into a great position for the run to the line. These types of races are her bread and butter! She’s not let me down before, so I’ll go for her again, the Belgian Bullet to take the win!

The Ovo Energy Women's Tour of Britain Stage 5 - The London Stage

I think Alice Barnes might sneak onto the podium too.

Coverage

The last 40 minutes of the race are being shown live on BBC2 (from 6pm GMT), with the whole event being shown via the Red Button (from 5pm GMT).

As for international coverage I’m not too sure, but there are plenty of sites out there where you can stream BBC2! Maybe the BBC site itself will work via VPN?

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

OVO Women’s Tour 2017 Stage 3 Preview; Atherstone -> Royal Leamington Spa

Today’s Recap

A day that was attacking from the gun, we had several breaks up the road throughout the day, with the peloton splintering behind. It looked for a while as if Lucinda Brand was going to hold on, but she was reeled in with 5km to go and we ended up with a reduced bunch sprint.

Boels’ Dolmans Amy Pieters came away victorious ahead of Hannah Barnes and Ellen van Dijk.

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Niewiadoma still holds onto her comfortable lead, but Barnes now moves into third place on GC.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A similar profile to the one we had today although a bit more rolling towards the end of the stage.

OVO Women's Tour Stage 3 (3)

Here’s a link to the interactive version of the profile.

Not much to speak of in the first 2/3rds of the stage, with a few uncategorised hills to contend with. That being said, the last rise before we get our categorised climbs is 3.3km long and averages 3.4%. I think it’s a bit harsh to be uncategorised!

The focal point of the stage will be the two Category-2 climbs that the riders will cover in quick succession.

Edge Hill is long enough and steep enough in some sections to cause splits in the peloton. The pace will then continue to be on once over the top and they hed towards Burton Dassett. Slightly shorter, but steeper in gradient, I think we could see what’s left of the peloton quickly disintegrate on this climb.

One of the reasons I say that is due to the length of the stage. Some women’s races are roughly 100km long, but the riders will have already covered almost 130km when they reach the bottom of the climb. Fatigue will play a big part in this stage, especially when you consider how attacking today was.

The one saving grace for those hoping for a bunch sprint of some sort is the 27km from the summit to the finish line to organise a chase.

We do have some small rises in the closing 10km of only roughly 1km and ~1.5% but they can’t be underestimated after a long and tough day in the saddle!

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As for the finish itself it is very straight forward apart from one tight rind hand turn at roughly 500m to go. Other than that, the rest of the run in is “sweeping” and the riders should be able to go full gas!

How will the stage pan out?

We should see another attacking day out and there is the possibility that a breakaway makes it all the way to the line.

There are several quality riders far enough down on GC who can finish off a stage like this if they are given some freedom. However, with WM3 looking quite weak today aside from their GC leader and Vos, I think other teams will be looking to expose them over the final 35km.

Much like yesterday, I think we’ll either see a very reduced bunch sprint or a late attack sticking.

Once again, I’ll go for the latter!

Contenders

Should I jumps ship from the three riders I named yesterday?!

I’ll name two of the same, but change one as Audrey Cordon seems more focussed on the QOM jersey rather than anything else.

Shara Gillow.

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The former Aussie TT champion was in the mix today but was actually caught out in a split in the bunch, losing a few seconds on GC. She is an attacking rider and could well use one of those small rises in the final 10km to her advantage, pealing off the front of the bunch and staying clear to the line. She’ll need to do that as she doesn’t have much of a sprint! My other season long fantasy rider (Pieters) won today, can Gillow repeat that feat tomorrow?

Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig.

The young Dane has been attentive so far this race, finishing near the front of the bunch on both stage so far. With a lot of the other riders concerned with her team-mate Moolman, she may use that to her advantage and escape. Packing a solid sprint, she could also win in a two or three rider gallop to the line. Will her inexperience cost her?

Katie Archibald.

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It’s nice to be able to list a fellow Scot as a stage contender for once! The track star has been slowly turning her attention to the road and has picked up some fairly solid results so far this season. Her abilities as an all-rounder seem to be improving and I think she could definitely surprise.

Prediction

I’ll hedge my bets and go with Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig, who could get involved in both a reduced sprint and a late breakaway!

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Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

OVO Women’s Tour 2017 Stage 2 Preview; Stoke -> Stoke.

*Same PSA as my Dauphiné preview; the rest of the previews this week will be “short” as I am short of time and trying to write a two a day is a bit of a squeeze. Apologies!*

Today’s Recap

Quite hard to write a recap on a stage you’ve not actually watched but here goes…

As is typical in women’s racing, the peloton was together for ages, with no one able to break away after 100km or so of action. However, that all changed at 47.5km to go when Katarzyna Niewiadoma launched an audacious attack. Her gap continued to go and she had over 3 minutes with 30km left.

“Watching” the race on Twitter, I was expecting the gap to come down at that point but no, 20km turned into 10km and the gap still remained at roughly 3 minutes.

I think we had a classic case of peloton politics where everyone expected Boels to chase but the Dutch outfit refused and called their bluff for a long time.

Eventually they did start to chase on the front but it was too late, with the Polish champion holding on to a comfortable margin of 1’42 by the end of the stage.

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Not a bad way to win your first World Tour race! I don’t want to put the #HaugheyCurse on her but…that in theory should be the GC over now. However, women’s racing is never over until and I’m sure we’ll see some attacking riding over the next few days.

Behind, her team-mate Vos sprinted to second to cap off a memorable day for the team, with Majerus somewhat rewarding Boels for their eventual efforts with third.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

An ever so slightly shorter stage than the opening day but one with a few more interestingly positioned climbs.

OVO Women's Tour Stage 2

The majority of the first half of the stage is flat, bar a few uncategorised rises at 2% for a few kilometres. Most of the action kicks off in the second half of the stage, starting with the first intermediate sprint. I say this, because straight after the first sprint we have an uncategorised rise before the road gradually rises through the second sprint in Cheadle.

However, it is the Category one climb of Isptones that should see the race split apart. At 3.8km ling and averaging 4.6%, I expect some of the stronger teams to attack it at a really hard pace, making it seem tougher than it actually is.

We had a few riders dropped today on the climbs and I think we’ll see a lot more suffer a similar fate tomorrow.

The peloton could half in size, if not be reduced by even more before they head towards the Gun Hill climb. A shorter but slightly sharper ascent, according to the Strava segment the average gradient is closer to 6%.

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There are some steep gradients of 10% and this is where the true climbers will come to the fore.

I think we might see a relatively select group crest the climb together.

The finish isn’t too bad, but there are a few technical turns in the closing kilometres.

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Will we see a solo rider come to the line again or will a group contest the finish?

How will the stage pan out?

It all depends on how the stage pans out but I think we’ll see a relatively select bunch get away on the final climb. Will they work together to maintain their advantage? Or will those behind get back in? Will we even see a late attack from someone work as everyone looks at each other to chase.

A massive advantage that Niewiadoma has is that she has Vos in her team. More importantly, she has a Marianne Vos who seems to be back to her best. This means that the Dutchwoman should be able to follow the bunch on the short climbs and then be used to mark any attacks once over the top. Niewiadoma on paper should be one of the best on the climbs so it is very unlikely she’ll be dropped as well!

Therefore, anyone that gets away will more than likely have one of those two sitting on their wheel. Not ideal!

However, the rest of the WM3 team will have their work cut out especially when they’ll be shunted with most of the work all day. A lot of pressure will be on Kitchen and Koster, and I’m just not sure if they’ll be up for the task.

Therefore, I think we could get a solo winner who escapes from the bunch in the closing few kilometres after Vos and Niewiadoma are tired out from chasing and just sit up to conserve the Polish riders lead on GC rather than chase the stage.

Contenders

I’ll throw a few names into the hat for this situation;

Audrey Cordon.

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The French TT champion is in a rich vein of form at the moment, performing well in the Ardennes but more recently coming home with two top 6 places in French one-day races. She’s climbing very well, in fact, she’s holding onto the QOM jersey here just now! Using her TT ability and that she won’t be seen as an instant danger, she’ll hope to slip clear.

Shara Gillow.

A similar rider to Cordon, the former 4-times Aussie TT champion has really taken a step forward this season with new team FDJ. With a strong Ardennes classics campaign, she has cemented herself as one of the best one-day racers/climbers in the women’s peloton. However, unlike other riders such as Moolman and Deignan etc, I think she still could benefit from some anonymity and steal a march on the peloton.

Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig.

The best young rider of the season, the Dane had a very good end to May, finishing in the top 5 of both th French races. Clearly in great form and buoyed by confidence, she won’t be afraid to take any risks to get away, knowing that Moolman will be behind following anything behind. With a solid sprint on her, she could win from a group of 3/4 riders that get away.

Prediction

I’ll be bias here and go for one of my season-long fantasy riders, Shara Gillow, to take a great win after attacking from 5km out and coming to the line solo!

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Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

OVO Women’s Tour 2017 Stage 1 Preview; Daventry -> Kettering

Back now for its 4th edition, the Women’s Tour now has a new headline sponsor – Drake! Joking aside, we should be in for a good week of racing with a whole host of talented riders here looking to take the crown.

GC Overview

Deignan is here to defend the title she took last year, but can she manage it?

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I’m unsure if she will or not! On paper, the route looks a lot easier than the previous editions and some riders have highlighted that themselves. Nonetheless, it will all depend on how aggressively they attack the route and of course, the typically bad British weather might play its part too.

If we get a selective race then on form Moolman looks the rider to beat. She’s won the last three races that she has entered and seems to be fully recovered from her crash at the end of last year. Packing a solid sprint after a tough day, she can challenge in a lot of situations.

Deignan obviously will be expected to go well, and the same can be said for her team-mate van der Breggen. There are many other names to consider as well such as Longo Borghini, Gillow and Vos. The latter is also in imperious form and seems back to her sublime best, winning the last three of her races!

Gooik-Geraardsbergen-Gooik 2017

However I am unsure if it will be as a selective race in comparison to last year’s edition. I’m really on the fence with this one!

We have some good climbing sprinters such as d’Hoore and Hosking who might fancy their chances of making it over some of the climbs towards the end of the stages. If they do, then they’ll be tough to beat.

Stages 2 and 4 look to be the most difficult with climbs coming in the final 20kms that could well be a launchpad for attacks.

Nonetheless, I’m going to go for a bit of an outsider to take the win…

I think Hannah Barnes has the credentials to step up here. I was very impressed with her climbing performance in the Tour of Yorkshire and the current British Champion seems to be coming of age this year at Canyon. A fast sprinter after a tough day, she should be there at the end of every stage and will be looking to use her local knowledge to gain an advantage over her competitors!

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Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders on the opening day!

The Route

A relatively easy day out in the saddle that should end in a bunch sprint.

OVO Women's Tour Stage 1 — Interactive profile viewable here.

We have a few QOM points in the first half of the stage but nothing too severe, with the route being mostly flat throughout the day. Although with that said, the roads can be viewed as “grippy”!

The run in to the line isn’t too bad but there are a few 90-degree turns in the closing 5km.

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The major danger is a very tight right hand turn at ~2km to go. It’s more than a 90-degree turn and could be a real choke point if teams are starting their lead-outs.

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Interestingly, the road does kick up ever so slightly before the final corner, so the sprint might not be as straight-forward as it initially seems. Furthermore, there is some road furniture before the road goes up.

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As crazy as it sounds, maybe the riders will bunny hop the middle section? Either way, I hope it is properly marshalled as it could become very dangerous. I imagine they’ll be sent around the left-hand side of the traffic island, that looks the quickest way to me!

You can see the road rising in the distance. How selective that rise will be depends on how much speed the riders can carry through the tricky section highlighted above.

We then have a left hand turn at roughly 150m to go. Exit that corner in first place and you have a great chance of winning.

The finish reminds me a lot of Liege, just not as severe a rise before hand!

Contenders

Where else to start than with my winner of this race overall; Barnes. As I’ve mentioned above, she has a fast kick after a tough day and this finish should put her on a more equal footing with some of the faster riders in the peloton so she certainly has a chance.

d’Hoore – The Belgian sprinter is more than just one of the fastest riders in the peloton, she can also climb well. A classics specialist, the strong Wiggle rider should be able to make it over the rise to the line. Winning several stages in Chongming while injured highlights her strength and if she’s maintained that form then she is one of the main riders to beat!

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Wild – Another strong sprinter, the Cylance rider failed to take a win in the Tour of California but she never finished lower than second in Chongming. Her sprinting legs are clearly there, it’s just a question if her climbing legs are too. She’ll be expecting to fight for the win and nothing less.

Hosking – One of my favourite sprinters, the Australian has continued on from her great 2016 season with a very solid start to the 2017 season. In the early races she was climbing the best that I have ever seen from her and I see no reason why that will have changed by now. Having not raced for a month she might be lacking a little kick, but the same can be said for the majority of the peloton.

Blaak/Pieters/Deignan – I’m not sure who Boels will be pulling for in this stage, maybe Deignan will be given home bias? Either way, they should have someone in the top 5 at the end of the stage.

Elvin, Mackaij and Vos will all be in the mix as well.

Prediction

I’ll go for an impressive win from Hosking!

Drentse Acht van Westerveld 2017

Climbing better than ever and sprinting better than ever, the Aussie will take care of business and steal the headlines! Channeling her inner Drake…

Coverage

Unfortunately there’s no live coverage but you can follow the race on twitter via the #OVOWT. However, there will be a daily highlights show on ITV4 during the evening (I’m not sure where else it is shown worldwide).

I’ll re-plug my Velogames.com league again for this race. Join using the following code: 05185053.

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win GC and stage 1? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Amstel Gold Race 2017 Preview

Only having been ran as a race three times in 2001-2003, the Amstel Gold race for women returns this year after a long hiatus. Defending champion Nicole Cooke is obviously no longer here (like the other previous winners), so we’ll have a new champion come Sunday afternoon!

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

At only 121km its shorter than several of the World Tour events we’ve had so far this year. However, don’t let its short nature fool you, the organisers have still managed to incorporate 17 ascents throughout the day.

amstel-gold-race-2017-new — @LasterketaBurua

Three climbs form the focus of the event; the Geulhemmerberg, the Bemelerberg and the Cauberg.

geulhemmerberg

The Geulhemmerberg comes furtherst away from the finish on the last lap, at roughly 16km to go. Not an overly tough climb, it does have some steeper ramps of 8%, but it should be a big ring climb for most of the bunch. The false flat drag over the top can certainly cause some gaps, especially if those behind are on the limit and the pace is on at the front of the peloton.

We then have a fast descent and some flat before reaching the penultimate climb of the day, the Bemelerberg.

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Like the Geulhemmerberg it does have some steepish ramps, but it is not a tough climb. What will make it tough is it’s position in the race and how aggressively the day has been ridden beforehand. It does present a springboard for an attack because there are only 5km from the peak to the bottom of the Cauberg. Speaking of which…

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A climb that does have some properly steep gradients, the natural climbers of the peloton will hope to use them to their advantage to break the will of the all-rounders. There is a chance for a regrouping over the top, with 1.5km of false flat before the line.

Is a sprint on the cards…

How will the race pan out?

It’s difficult to say really. Covering my back here!

The route is obviously similar to that which we’ve seen in the men’s edition over the past few years, with the Cauberg coming so close to the finish line. Will that mean a conservative race where the peloton is kept together until then?

If this was last year I’d say no, due to how attacking the races were, with a lot of favourites making race-winning moves from relatively far out. However, things this year have changed. Teams and riders seem to be on a more level playing field. We’ve had 4 different riders (teams) win the 5 World Tour events so far, with only Coryn Rivera being the repeat winner. Compare that to last year where Boels had won all 5 races, with Deginan and Blaak sharing the spoils.

So there is a chance that the teams cancel each other out and we do get a sprint up the Cauberg for the final time.

Yet, I think we’ll see the women’s peloton return to the incredibly hectic racing from last season, with attacks all day. On a wearing course like Amstel, domestiques will get tired from having to chase which I think will lead to an open race on the final 20km lap, and a strong group will get away before the final time up the Cauberg.

Contenders

Even with their remarkably less dominant start to the season, you can’t start anywhere other than with Boels Dolmans for this race. The team wanted a slower start to the year, with more of a focus on this coming week than the opening few spring races, which they’ve certainly managed. They have a few riders who could win in certain scenarios, but Deignan and Van der Breggen look to be their best options.

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The former World Champion has had a lighter race schedule this year, after suffering from illness which saw her withdraw from a few events. However, she’s looked strong when racing so far and a 3rd place in Strade highlights that she can cope on the climbs with the best. I’m sure the Brit will fancy her chances in a sprint! As for her team-mate, I was very impressed with Van der Breggen in the Healthy Ageing Tour and she seems to be peaking very well for this week. A better climber than Deignan, the Olympic champion has all the credentials to take victory tomorrow afternoon. Numbers will be key for the Dutch team and if Guarnier is back to full fitness they even have a third great option to play.

Boels main threat could be Strade winner Elisa Longo Borghini. The Italian started the season in scintillating form and has top 10’d in four out of the 5 World Tour events so far. An aggressive rider, she’ll hope to force a selection earlier in the race to eliminate as many riders from other teams as possible, relying on climbing super-domestique Claudia Lichtenberg to stay with her for most of the day. Like a few others, she packs a handy sprint after a tough day.

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Sunweb will be hoping to continue their great start to the year with another win here. I’m not sure who their main card will be on the day but you would think Van Dijk has the best chance. She’s been very consistent this year so far, taking her first win in the recent Healthy Ageing Tour. Her lack of a really good sprint will mean that she’ll more than likely have to solo to the line. I think Kirchmann will also go better here than she has done throughout this season so far. The Canadian really burst onto the scene last year with a great debut on the European circuit. She trains in the Limburg area so will know the roads off by heart and is my dark horse for the race. I’m also intrigued to see how current WWT leader Rivera does. Transforming into much more than a sprinter, I would think the climbs here would be too tough for her, but you never know, especially when she has the leader’s jersey on her back!

You would expect Niewiadoma to be WM3’s leader as Vos has been out of action for a little while and still recovering. The Pole has continued on from where she left off in 2016 with a string of great performances in 2017 so far. She is still missing that elusive victory this year, but that may well change tomorrow with a bit of luck on he side. As much as I don’t think Vos will be up there at the end of the race, you can never discount her because she is Marianne Vos after all. Furthermore, the finish of the Cauberg was the scene of her World Championship win in 2012 and as a Dutch rider she’ll be fired up for this race!

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Orica once again arrive with their crack squad of riders who will no doubt animate the race. Garfoot or Van Vleuten have the best chance of winning the race but they do have strenght in numbers and will hope to use that to their advantage. However, I have said this in the past few previews, that I think they have “too many cooks” and will once again miss out on victory.

Canyon will hope to be up there at the pointy end of the race with Ferrand–Prevot or Cecchini. Likewise, so will Cervelo duo Moolman and young Danish sensation Uttrup Ludwig.

One rider I am keen to see go well is FDJ’s Shara Gillow (there may be some bias here as she is in my season long fantasy team). She crashed in Gent Wevelgem but bounced back with a 25th place in Flanders, coming home in the second group. An under-rated climber, she was very attacking Strade, eventually finishing 6th. Without a great sprint, she’ll more than likely need to come to the line alone, but given her TT credentials that is certainly a possibility!

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Prediction

The race will be broken up going into the final lap of the race and Boels will play the numbers game excellently. I’ll go for their rider who has shown to be in form just now; Anna van der Breggen to take the win and possibly the start of an Ardennes triple!

Emma Johansson, Anna Van De Breggen

Thanks for reading and as always, any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win and how will they do it?! I’ll have Tour of the Alps (Trentino) daily stage previews over the next few days (no time for GC) along with men and women’s Fleche on Tuesday. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Trofeo Alfredo Binda 2017 Preview

The third round of the Women’s World Tour returns this weekend with the Trofeo Alfredo Binda. It’s the oldest race in the WWT and normally provides some very exciting racing. Last year’s edition saw Lizzie Deignan (then Armitstead) attacking on the final descent along with Jolanda Neff, before out-sprinting the Swiss rider in the uphill drag to the line.

Neff was actually beaten to the line for second place by Armitstead’s team-mate, Megan Guarnier, who won the sprint out of the chasing group behind.

I expect we’ll see some more attacking and exciting racing this year so let’s take a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A tough parcours, with the road either going up or down for most of the day. There is no real respite!

C6pQ7yLWoAA0CKk — Credit to @LasterketaBurua for the profile – much better than the official one!

The first half of the day will act as a leg softener but this race is all about the final circuit around Cittiglio itself.

The official profile of the circuit is a bit rubbish if I’m honest, so I’ve made a Strava profile of the circuit that you can view here.

Even it has its limitations though and the dramatic wall before the Orino climb should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Isolating the climbs themselves, the Casalzuigno climb is 1.9km long, averaging 4.1% in gradient. However, that does include a reasonably long false-flat drag at the start.

As you can see, it kicks up at around 6.5% for the final 900m. Gaps can certainly be made here with some early attacks!

We then have a quick descent followed by a few kilometres of flat before the main test of the closing circuit, the Orino Climb.

At 2.7km long and averaging 4.8%, like the Casalzuigno climb, that does not tell the whole story. There are a few hundred metre stretches, especially around the hairpin turns, that average over 9%! No doubt the pure climbers will be trying something here to distance the all-rounders.

There’s then a fast 4km descent before the final run to the finish line, with the closing 500m averaging 3.6%. Will we get a tough sprint like last year?

Contenders

Back to back champion Deignan returns this year and will be hoping for a hat-trick of wins tomorrow. She’s only had one race day this year so far, a very respectable 3rd in Strade, so I’m intrigued to see if she’ll be up to full race speed as of yet! I remember reading an interview (can’t remember where – apologies!) in which she wanted a more gradual start to the season compared to 2016 where she burned herself out by the end of the Spring Classics. A good climber with a strong sprint after a tough day, if she is on form already then she will be tough to beat!

However, as per usual, Boels send an incredibly strong team to not only support her but with plenty of other options for the race victory. Their best alternative to Deignan looks like Anna van der Breggen! After missing Strade through illness the Dutchwoman returned to racing last weekend, doing a lot of the hard work chasing for her team-mates. The parcours here suits her better than those races and being one of the best riders in the world, on one of the best teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her cross the line first!

The main danger for Boels will more than likely be the current leader of the Women’s World Tour: Elisa Longo Borghini. The Italian is local to this area and has won here before, back in 2013. Already in scintillating form this year with a win in Strade and a 4th place in Ronde van Drenthe, you wouldn’t put it past her winning again tomorrow. She’ll be brimming with confidence and I’d be willing to put my metaphorically owned house that she will finish in the top 5, barring any misfortune caused by a crash or mechanical! Borghini will be ably supported by new team-mate Claudia Lichtenberg who could well feature herself at the pointy end of the race. More of a climber though, she would need to come to the finish solo.

Team Sunweb have arguably been the best performing squad of the season so far and the once again arrive at a race with a solid team. I imagine Ellen Van Dijk will be their leader as she has looked excellent this year so far. Unfortunate in Van Drenthe that Boels had their whole team pretty much to chase her down, she’ll be hoping to get a bit more leeway this race and solo to the line. Something that is certainly not a distant possibility! Leah Kirchmann has had a quiet start to the year in comparison to her breakthrough 2016 season. However, as a good all-rounder, she can’t be discounted if the proper climbers don’t make inroads on the hills. Packing a fast kick, the Canadian will fancy her chances in a 15 rider bunch gallop.

Marianne Vos is the most successful rider in this race’s history, with three wins in total. She arrives here with a very strong team and in fact, she probably won’t be the teams outright leader. I imagine she’ll almost play a sandbagging type role, covering attacks and waiting for the sprint. Instead, I think it will be Katarzyna Niewiadoma who has the best chance for the WM3 team! The Pole was unlucky in Strade but was just beaten by the better rider on the day, although she still managed to finish a great second place. I’m sure she’ll want to exact some revenge over Longo Borghini in her home race!

Canyon SRAM arrive with Alena Amialiusik as their leader. The Belarusian has finished 3rd/5th/5th in the past 3 editions so she certainly seems to go well at this race! She doesn’t have a great sprint so will need to arrive at the finish alone if she wants to win. One of her team-mates does have a good sprint after a tough day – Elena Cecchini. The Italian champion has finished in or around the top 10 in her last three appearances at this race but she has never made the front group. Although she’s climbing better than ever just now, I think like Kirchmann, she might want a group of 15 to arrive together.

You can never discount Orica pairing Garfoot and Van Vleuten, or FDJ’s Aussie Shara Gillow.

One curveball of a rider I would like to highlight is Cervelo Bigla’s young Danish talent; Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig.

She started the season off OK, but a breakthrough 9th place in Strade confirmed her talents. I mean, she was 9th at the European Champs and 10th at the Boels Rental Hills Classics last year so I guess it you could say it was coming! Following up from her great ride in Strade, she went on to take the overall title at the Setmana Ciclista Valenciana. She admits her main strength is climbing so it will be hard to win in a sprint but I will certainly be keeping an eye on her development this year.

Prediction

A tough race to call and having numbers in the final lap will be of a big advantage. I’ll go for a rider who is going to take some big wins this year, and having the most decorated female cyclist of her generation sandbagging behind certainly will help her here. Katarzyna Niewiadoma to win! She is fast enough to win a small sprint but also strong enough to ride away on the climbs.

Coverage

We are expected to get a live stream of the final 68km from 14:50 CET, that you can view here.

However, do be warned if last year’s stream is anything to go by then we might just get a studio show followed by a zoom-lens camera shot of the final straight. I hope that they’ve stepped their game up though!

Thanks for reading as always and as usual, any feedback/likes/shares is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? And will we see a solo winner or a small group sprint? I’ll have a lot of men’s previews on the site over the next few days but the next women’s preview will be Gent Wevelgem next Saturday. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Ronde van Drenthe 2017

After the rip-roaring success of last weekend’s race and preview, I’m back this weekend to look at a one-day race and its rubbish climb…

No, seriously! The riders have to traverse the VAM-berg which is genuinely just a grass and road covered rubbish dump. How scenic!

Last year the race was won by Chantal Blaak after a group of 4 made it clear on the final cobbled section. Managing to work well for the remaining 60km of the race, before duking it out in a sprint.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders this year.

The Route

More of the same this year in terms of parcours and route, with the race being extended by 14km to 152km in total.

We are treated to an official profile from the organisers that appears as if it was made on Microsoft Paint.

One ascent of the VAM-berg is followed by 7 sectors of pavé, totalling 13.2km of cobbled action! As we saw last year, this is one of the places where a race-winning move can be made. However, it is more often than not the double passage of the VAM-berg which is a launchpad for an attack.

The climb itself is short and sharp, but it’s the location at the start of the season which means it causes a lot of damage to the peloton.

It’s only a few hundred metres long but does kick up to 20% in some places!

The finishing circuit around Hoogeveen is pretty simple and it’s all about either working well to maintain a lead, or the peloton co-operating to bring the race back together for a sprint.

There is one other factor that normally has an impact on the race and that is the wind.

Wind forecast near Hoogeveen (Source: Windfinder)

The wind direction is favourable for cross-winds but the speed isn’t. Although you never know, a determined (and tired) peloton can still be ripped apart.

I’m fairly confident that the racing will be aggressive and we won’t see a full bunch sprint. There might be a situation where we have a group of 20 riders coming to the line together but that will be the most!

Contenders

Where better to start than with the defending champion and her team?! Boels are still without a win this season, a far cry from last year’s dominating start. However, they once again arrive with the strongest team on paper and 4 potential winners. Chantal Blaak will obviously be wanting to retain her crown and she seems to have started the season in good form, finishing 2nd at Omloop. She’ll probably want a tough selective race like last year, hoping to win a sprint from a small group. Or of course like all the Boels riders, they may play the numbers game up front and she might solo to the win. A rider very much similar to Blaak is Amy Pieters. The Dutchwoman has been exceptional form at the start of the year and without bad luck hampering her, she could have picked up a few better results by now. I imagine she’ll be reeling with herself after only managing second in Le Samyn and this would be a good race to turn it around! World Champion Amelie Diedriksen will be kept as the sprinter for the team, so I think it will be tough for her to win. Likewise, Anna van der Breggen may struggle in her first race of the season after skipping Strade due to illness. However, you can never write off the European and Olympic champion and she will certainly find the VAM-berg to her liking, she has won La Flèche the past two years in a row!

Anna van der Breggen winning La Flèche

Team Sunweb send a very balanced squad with them and one that could certainly challenge Boels. Rider of the season so far (an award I have made up just now) Lucinda Brand will arrive as their main charge. She was strong in her opening race, winning Omloop, and was very unlucky in Strade to finish off of the podium. Clearly in great form, you would have to expect her to be near the front whatever happens tomorrow! Ellen van Dijk has had a very consistent start to the season, finishing in the top 10 of all three races she’s started. An incredibly tough all-round rider, she has the time trial abilities to get and maintain a gap on the bunch. Young classic prodigy Floortje Mackaij is a good option for a sprint after a tough day, but as we saw in Strade, she’s not afraid to go on the attack either. Likewise, Leah Kirchmann can mix it up over the climbs and in the sprint, I imagine she’ll play a similar role to van der Breggen.

Floortje Mackaij winning Gent Wevelgem

Marianne Vos will be hoping for a winning return to a race that she’s not attended since clinching the title in 2013. With the climb not being too long, she should be able to follow any attacks and if she makes the front group then she’s an obvious danger. In Lauren Kitchen and Anouska Koster she has two strong team-mates who can help keep her protected for a lot of the race.

Orica Scott arrive with another strong team but it seemed to be a case of “too many chefs” at Strade. Unlike Boels, they haven’t managed to get the great rider to keen worker balance right. However, with the likes of Garfoot, Van Vleuten and Elvin they will certainly still be in contention for a good result.

Canyon SRAM also arrive with a few options for the race but I think Hannah Barnes will be the protected rider. The Brit has started the season well, grabbing a top 10 in Le Samyn after attacking late in the race with Van Dijk. She has a fast sprint on her, but has been turning herself into a very good classics rider as of late and is certainly one to keep an eye on.

We do have the likes of Hosking, D’Hoore and Wild here, but as I’ve said above, I think it will be very unlikely if we get a bunch sprint here.

Prediction

This race really hinges on the attitude of Sunweb and Boels, they both have incredibly strong teams. Brand and Blaak are the obvious favourites for the race, but I think they could mark each other out of it and instead that will open the door for their team-mates. I think we’ll see a similar race to last year where a selection is made on the cobbles, rather than the VAM-berg. If the group contains a rider from Boles, Sunweb, Orica, Canyon, WM3 and one of the sprinters teams then that will be it gone for the day. Obviously there might be more than one rider from each of those teams and then we get a really tactical battle!

After being horribly unlucky in her first two races, and picking up a second place just over a week ago, I fancy Amy Pieters to pick up Boels’ first win of the season here. She’s clearly in good form and loves the cobbles. Not only packing a strong sprint after a tough day, she’s a very attacking rider so won’t be afraid to take it up from far out.

Coverage

You should be able to follow the race live on Saturday at 1pm GMT, either here or here.

Thanks for reading as always and any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win? Will we see a dominant display from Sunweb and Boels? Or will an outsider sneak away? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Where I give my opinions on the compelling world of professional bicycle racing

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