The final race of the Ardennes’ week sees the riders tackle the fourth Monument of the year. We saw a tactical race last year but one that was ultimately decided by the final drag into Ans, which saw Valverde double-up after his win in Fleche earlier in the week.

Can Alaphilippe repeat the feat this year? Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Pretty much a carbon copy of last year’s race!

Roughly 4000m of climbing over 258km makes it a long day in the saddle for many, especially with the majority (9 out of 11) of the categorised climbs featuring in the final 100kms of the race. Expect to see a race of attrition

There is a chance we see some action on the Côte de La Redoute (2km at 8.9%) as this was a springboard for a group of escapees to go last year. With the climb cresting at just over 35km to go, if several strong teams are represented then it could be the spot of the winning attack of the day.

The Côte de la Roche-Faucons (1.3km at 11%) comes next and again offers those not wanting to wait until the end of the race to spice things up. Over the top only 19kms so a chase will have to be organised quickly to bring anyone ahead back: especially when the following few kilometres are all down hill.

Last but not least, the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2km at 8.6%) can split the bunch again on the run in to the line. If not, it will all come down to the final uncategorised ramp in Ans.

Although it isn’t very tough when taken alone, once you consider everything else that the riders will have faced then the 1.4km rise will see gaps in the peloton. There are a few hundred metres of flat once the riders turn left at the top of the rise, but if a rider has a few seconds gap then it is race over. Will it come down to a reduced sprint?

L for Legs

Liege will be one of the longest races on the calendar for many of the riders here and it is this length combined with the rolling terrain that makes it very difficult for a lot in the peloton to win. For a rider to go well, ideally they have had to show in the past that they can cope with the distance so an ok result in any of the monuments are almost a necessity but obviously the ones with more climbing take precedent, i.e. here or Lombardia.

Every winner here in the past 5 years has competed at this race a minimum of 3 times before they have gone on to take glory. So course knowledge but also effort management are important factors to consider too.

However, statistics and records are there to be broken and we’ve had riders go very well on their first attempts here: Alaphilippe’s 2nd place in 2015 springs to mind.

Nonetheless, experience often shines through so those at the head of the betting reflect that with Valverde, Alaphilippe, Nibali and Matthews as the favourites.

No doubt though you will have read a lot of previews the past few days that go into great detail about them and their chances, so as I don’t want to bore you (and I’m short of time), I will avoid them and just focus on 4 other riders who I think might have a chance.

The Countdown Approach

One from the top, one from the middle and two from the bottom…

Romain Bardet.

This is the Frenchman’s 6th appearance at the race, having previously finished 13th (2013) / 10th (2014) / 6th (2015) / 13th (2016) / 6th (2017). Not a bad string of results, he seems to be very consistent here! He was an outsider of mine for Fleche, a race in which he finished 9th at, but apparently he suffered from a crash not too long before the final ascent of the Huy so it makes the result an even better one. 2018 has been a solid year for the AG2R rider and although he hasn’t performed too well in stage races, he has really shone in one-day races. In the 7 one-day races he has competed in so far he’s finished in the top 10 on 6 occasions: the only time he didn’t achieve that feat was in the not very climber friendly (unless you’re Valverde) Dwars Door Vlaanderen. Not bad! The longer ascents of Liege should suit him very well. I’m intrigued to see how he approaches the race but no doubt we will see him attacking at some point towards the closing stages of the race. He’s one who might take advantage of the “big favourites” marking each other.

Tiesj Benoot.

He finally got the monkey off his back after taking a great win at Strade Bianche earlier in the year. In general he has really taken a step up in the level of his performances and he seems to be moulding himself into someone who can go well on a variety of terrain. This was highlighted with a 4th place on GC in Tirreno which was closely followed by successive top 10 places in the WT Belgian one-day races. This will be his first attempt at Liege which does make it harder for him to go well here but given he has been at the pointy end in Flanders before, I think he should be ok. Deliberately missing Roubaix to focus on the hilly Ardennes, the past week hasn’t gone exactly to plan for him. He DNFd Amstel after having a bit of an off day before working for team-mates in Fleche, possibly still recovering from whatever made him struggle in Amstel. However, this is the parcours that should suit his characteristics and I think we will see him near the head of the action tomorrow. Lotto Soudal have plenty of strong riders so they should approach the day aggressively, can Benoot make the right move?

Stephen Cummings.

The most difficult rider to read in the peloton, the British champion arrives at the race not named as one of Dimension Data’s potential winners in their press release. When has that ever stopped him going well though? Cummings set his sights on an unnamed Monument last year (according to Brian Smith) but he didn’t really shine in either San Remo or Lombardia so potentially it is Liege he will be gunning for this time round. He has raced here before, finishing in 19th place in his last outing back in 2016. Theoretically he should go well on the rolling terrain but as I’ve suggested above, it is hard to tell where he is at form wise and if he can actually be bothered to try. His best result this year on an open road stage is 73rd in Milan Sanremo, with a 92nd place on the third stage of Itzulia the only other time he has finished within the top 100. An almost impressive achievement! Clearly the form is good…

Sam Oomen.

A talented rider, it is incredible to think he is still only 22 years old. Liege is a race that Oomen has competed at twice already, finishing 26th on his first attempt in 2016. It was an 11th place in Lombardia last year that caught my eye in regards to his classics potential; no mean feat for someone so young to go well in that brutally tough race. With his first Grand Tour in his legs, he should reap the benefits of it this year. Tomorrow he will most likely play a supporting role for Matthews but he will probably be used in an attacking sense so that no one else from the team has to work behind. We have seen in previous races that early attacks stick if enough of the stronger teams are represented; could Oomen get lucky? He has the punch on the slopes to fancy his chances in a group of “second-tier” riders.

Prediction

A tactical race with some of the bigger favourites marking each other, leading to a bold attack from Romain Bardet paying off and securing the Frenchman his biggest ever win.

Betting

Tweeted out my selections yesterday.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win La Doyenne tomorrow? Will we see a surprise or will the favourites be at the fore? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

With the cobbled classics now over the riders have a mid-week race in Belgium to transition over to the Ardennes. Brabantse Pijl is the perfect event to make that switch as it combines some punchy, short climbs with a few cobbles thrown in for good measure too.

Last year saw an attacking race with a strong group forming around 40km from the lune. They were never given too much leeway, the gap peaked at just under a minute, but the peloton were never able to bring them back in as it was only Direct Energie and Sunweb who committed to any sort of chase. In the final 5km Wellens and Vakoc attacked from the bunch and bridged across to the head of the race just in time for the last climb and gallop to the line.

However, it was Sonny Colbrelli who took home a comfortable win after he out-powered Vakoc and Bennoot who rounded out the podium.

Will we see a similar outcome tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders first though.

The Route

Slightly longer than last year but pretty much more of the same.

Short climbs litter the route with 20 peaks to contend with in the final 90kms of the race for the riders. Teams always have to be wary as a strong move can go at any time, like last year, and given the up and down nature of the course it is pretty difficult to organise a fully fledged chase.

The final circuit is made up of the following climbs; Hagaard (300m at 10%), Hertstraat (700m at 4.5%), Holstheide (955m at 5.4%), Ijskelderlaan (450m at 7%) and Schavei (700m at 6.2%).

You can view the profiles of all the climbs on this handy website here.

After the Schavei the road flattens out ever so slightly for a few hundred metres which gives a chance for things to regroup if they’re split on the climb. Conversely though, it also provides an opportunity for the strongest rider to continue on and grow their gap, just like Vakoc did in 2016.

World Tour Dominance

Although it is a 1.HC race, the top of the results in the past few years have been dominated by the World Tour teams. You have to go back to 2012 to find a winner here that came from a Pro Conti level squad: the ever gurning Thomas Voeckler. Every rider in the top 10 last year rode for a WT team.

So are they unbeatable?

No, I don’t think so and there are two reasons behind that:

1. We have fewer World Tour teams here this season, with only 7 bringing squads to the race compared to 9 in 2017.

2. Smaller teams in general will make the race harder to control, especially for those with a sprinter.

Consequently, some attacking riding from the Pro Conti squads might see them rewarded here.

Contenders (Outsiders)

As is often the case with these types of races there are a lot of riders who might have a chance of winning in the right situation. There are a few clearer favourites such as Colbrelli, Teuns, Jungels, Benoot and Wellens but where is the fun in me telling you a lot about them considering them and their talents are already well-known. Also, as I think the race will be quite attacking and open then these following 4 lesser known riders might just have a chance at a good result.

Marco Canola.

After having a couple of relatively quiet seasons Canola was resurgent in 2017 taking 6 wins throughout the year, albeit most of them were in Japan against not the most stellar of opposition. Nonetheless, those achievements shouldn’t be discounted and he has started this year in ok form with a 2nd place in Larciano the stand out performance. The Italian is a punchy climber who in theory should be able to cope with the hills that we have tomorrow. With an explosive kick if he arrives in a small group then he has a good chance of stealing a great win.

Jan Tratnik.

It is fair to say that the CCC rider is in a purple patch currently having recently won the hilly final TT in the Coppi e Bartali but more impressively was his win in tough conditions in the Volta Limburg. It was a crazy day on the bike for Tratnik as he attacked out of the peloton with another rider to join up with the breakaway at 45km or so to go. In the final 10km he attacked and was only followed by one rider (who crashed), before Tratnik took a wrong turn and had to chase back to the group, ultimately winning the reduced sprint. He comes into this race as CCC’s named leader and he’ll be one to watch; although it will be hard to miss him in the orange-fluo kit!

Xandro Meurisse.

A rider that has taken a little bit longer to make his name in cycling compared to his fellow 2014 Lotto-Soudal stagiares; Naesen and Benoot, Meurisse plys his trade for Pro Conti team Wanty Groupe Gobert. Like the others on this list (and to have a chance at competing for a result at this race) he is a punchy bike rider who can cope well on the short climbs. His only professional win was a very impressive reduced sprint win in Dunkerque back in 2016 when he surged past Coquard just before the line. His 2017 was good, picking up a handful of top 10s and podium places but the wins just eluded him. A second place in the Circutit Cycliste Sarthe behind his team-mate earlier in the month indicates that his form is heading in the right direction. Can he go better than his 23rd place here last year?

Quentin Pacher.

I’ve not had any season-long fantasy bias in my previews for a while so I feel the time is right to big-up one of my guys again and that will be Quentin for Brabantse. The Vital Concept rider has had a very consistent and solid start to the year, picking up 7 top 10 places so far. He can do a bit of everything it seems but shorter punchy climbs seem to be his forte; after all he was the closest guy to a flying Teuns on stage 3 of the Tour de Wallonie. Potentially used as a foil up the road so that they don’t have to work behind for Coquard, he might just go on to surprise.

Prediction

We’ll see a very tactical race that will be hard to control which sould make it a very exciting watch as it could be won at any time. I don’t think anyone will actively ride for a sprint and they’ll only decide to go for that outcome if things are close in the final 10km.

Consequently I think a small group will break clear like last year and battle it out at the finish but we’ll see a relatively surprising winner with the man in form Jan Tratnik!

Betting

0.75pt EW Tratnik @ 100/1 (Would take 66/1)

0.5pt EW Meurisse @ 100/1 (Would take 66/1)

0.25pt EW Pacher @ 400/1 (Would take 200/1)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see a surprise or will one of the favourites prevail? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Today’s Recap

We got the chaos that was expected!

A big break went up the road early in the day but they were never given too much leeway, with the gap only peaking at 5’30. Movistar set a fierce pace on the first categorised climb of the day and reduced the peloton drastically but things regrouped on the descent and the valley roads. However, on the penultimate climb it exploded with a strong quartet of GC riders escaping the rest; De La Cruz, Ion Izaggire, Roglic and Landa. The first of that list lost contact on the descent though (not sure what happened) so we were left with three. They linked up with some team-mates who were in the break and eventually caught the last remaining rider up ahead on the descent of the final climb. It was kept all together and morning breakee Omar Fraile sprinted to the win!

Nice to see him win after me backing him on stages 2 and 3 but not today…Roglic finished second and picked up some more bonus seconds (not that he needs it) with Izagirre coming home third.

The Slovenian now has an even more commanding GC lead so it will be interesting to see how teams approach tomorrow’s stage. Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

A short but very intense stage with 2800m of climbing over only 122kms.

Right from the gun the road rises and over the first 40kms there is hardly any flat road to speak of, with the riders facing 4 categorised climbs. They aren’t overly difficult if taken individually but it is the constant climbing that will leave the riders with very little respite; especially as I imagine they will be attacked very hard at the start of the day.

There is then a little lull for 20kms before the next climb which is tough, 4.1lm at 7%, but it comes slap in the middle of the stage and will be pretty ineffectual as to the outcome of the stage. Another “lull” of 20kms follows before things kick off again in the closing 40km.

The Ixua is a climb that typifies the Basque Country; not too long but very steep. At almost 5km long, it averages a leg breaking 8.6%, with the last 4km an even more excruciating 9.7%. If the racing earlier in the day is incredibly aggressive, we could see a lot of riders go pop here.

Once over the top the riders will descend for 8km or so, passing through the second intermediate sprint of the day. Could the bonus seconds here be important at the end of the week? The road then rises again but at a much more gentle incline; 4.4% for 5.6kms. It is a climb though that we could see some surprises on, especially if the Ixua has been climbed at a fast tempo. Someone hanging on then, will be really hanging on here due to the lack of time to recover in between efforts.

There are 12kms from the crest of the penultimate climb until the beginning of the last ascent of the day and boy, is it a cracker!

A favourite climb of the organisers, it has been used quite a lot in the past and featured as the finale in the penultimate stage last year. With it being the last place in the race that any difference can me made, expect fireworks from whoever is left at the head of the peloton and some fairly significant time gaps between the GC contenders.

The road plateaus for 2kms after the steepest section, before it plunges down just under the Flamme Rouge. It is a fast run to the line and positioning around the final few corners is incredibly important if you want to win the stage. If you’re at the front then, you will be hard to beat!

How will the race pan out?

Unless something terrible happens to Roglic, he has the GC title sewn up. If he had looked in difficulty at some point today then those near to him in the order might have sensed blood and went manic tomorrow. However, he looked effortless on the climbs and never seemed in too much trouble. Even if he gets dropped on the final climb (I can’t see him falling behind anywhere else) then he will only lose 20 seconds or so. There is only one rider who can drop him on the actual climb as well: Landa. Will Movistar chase all day to try to set him up? I don’t know…

I actually think a strong break has a good chance at staying away but as I’ve said, it all depends on Movistar. If they bring it back, Landa wins.

However, having just that as a preview is no fun so it looks like we’re playing everyone’s favourite game for one last time in Pais Vasco.

Candidates

Igor Anton.

A Basque rider who loves the steep slopes, it is a surprise that we have not seen him in the breakaway so far. Going into the final stage he sits in 20th place at just over 7 minutes down on Roglic so he is no real threat to the Slovenian’s jersey. He’s not won a race in a few years now, but he always seems to go well in his home country. Could he pull off something special in front of his local fans?

Alexis Vuillermoz.

It was Latour in the break for Ag2r today so I imagine they will try to get Vuillermoz up the road tomorrow, especially with Bardet slipping even further down the classification. The route looks good for the Frenchman and he has shown in the past his credentials with hilly one-day races that are similar to what we have tomorrow. The wall of a finish will be seen as a challenge to him – he has finished 6th at Fleche Wallonne before after all. Hopefully we’ll see his trademark goldfish breathing technique at the head of affairs tomorrow.

Rui Costa.

If I’m honest, I didn’t even know Costa was at this race until I saw the rainbow bands on the UAE jersey climbing third wheel up the first climb of the day. He withdrew from Paris Nice due to illness but slowly seems to be riding his way into form here. Sitting 15th on GC and 5:45 down on Roglic, he is on the borderline of being given some freedom in any breakaway. If he does get up the road though, it might tip the balance for the stage win in favour of the GC guys, it just depends on who wants to chase and possibly protect their 9th place etc. Let’s hope that negative style of racing doesn’t happen!

Steve Cummings.

He’s done sod all so far this season which is odd for him as he would normally at least have had one hit out, even if it was in vain. Maybe his day is tomorrow? Maybe we’ll be saying that for the next few months? The steep gradients of the final climb aren’t ideal for him but he has surprised me in the past and I’m sure he will surprise me again in the future. Riders will be concerned about him if he does get in the break. An attack on the penultimate climb and riding solo up the Alto de Arrate would give him his best chance!

Prediction

The non-existent Rui Costa to remind everyone that he is actually at this race by taking home a stage win after being in the break.

Betting

No bet, probably.

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will a group of escapees manage to make it to the line or will the GC contenders fight it out for stage honours? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.