GC Overview
No stand-alone GC preview from me but it looks set to be a showdown between Porte and Froome. The former won their battle in Romandie, looking imperious. However, the Dauphinè is Froome (and Sky’s) race. They’ve taken the title in 5 out of the last 6 editions and I’m sure the Brit will be here to put down a marker before the Tour.
The TT should suit both of those guys and with the amount of climbing on offer, then they both should end up on the podium.
However, there is the potential that they could be caught out on the tough stages at the end of the race, particularly the explosive 115km Stage 8 test. We saw that in 2014 when Talansky went on a raid to win the overall. The Cannondale rider looked good in California, is a repeat performance on the cards?
Of course, we have several other contenders such as Valverde, Contador, Bardet, Yates, Martin and Chaves (if he’s recovered from his injury) who might spring a surprise and catch the big-two napping on that last day.
Nonetheless, I’ll be boring/safe (delete as appropriate), this is Froome’s Duaphiné to lose. The parcours suits him very well and he seems to go better on the longer climbs in comparison to his former team-mate.
He needs a commanding performance, otherwise the Australian will go into the Tour buoyant and as a very, very serious title contender, if not the favourite!
Right, now let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders on the opening day.
The Route
A tough, tricky and very interesting route to start the race off.
Lots of small climbs throughout the day but particularly in the circuit on the outskirts of Saint-Étienne which will no doubt shape the race.
I don’t envisage any of the early climbs being attacked aggressively enough for the sprinters to lose contact, so I’ll just skip them! However, they will no doubt stretch the legs of the riders for what is to come.
Instead, I’ll focus on the final 44km and the “interesting” finale.
According to the roadbook, the Côte de Rochetaillée is 3.4km at 5.4%. However, that doesn’t really tell the whole story, so out of interest I made a Strava profile of the final circuit that you can view here.
They make the climb to be 3.8km at 5.8%. Either way, it’s not what I would call short and not what I would call extremely easy!
Moreover, the little lump/prelude of a climb is roughly 2.5km at 3.5%. It means for the final 44kms the peloton will be climbing for approximately 18km of them, totalling 1350m of elevation gain (~450 per lap according to Strava).
The majority of the descent towards the line is fairly straightforward and the riders will be thankful to get a few looks at it. However, there is a pair of tight 90-degree right-hand turns just after the Flamme Rouge which could cause some issues.
Positioning will be very important.
The road even rises ever so slightly to the line, but it’s minimal!
How will the stage pan out?
This is a really exciting stage on paper because it is so tough to call.
Will the sprinters make it? Will the punchier riders fight it out? Will we see a late attack stick? Or none of the above?
I’ll stick my neck on the line and suggest that it will actually be a relatively selective bunch that comes to the line, maybe 30-40 riders. A few of the GC teams with fast riders who aren’t as strong in a TT might want to gain a few bonus seconds tomorrow!
My reasoning for this is that tomorrow’s stage reminds me an awful lot of the Barcelona circuit (Stage 7) we had at the Volta Catalunya earlier in the year. On that day they admittedly did many more laps (8 compared to 3), but the climb was actually easier (only 2.2km at 5.1%).
That stage ended with a front group of only 16 riders, but I imagine tomorrow might be just over double in size.
Therefore, that means I’m ruling out the majority of the sprinters, with possibly only Boasson Hagen and Colbrelli making it. Even then though I’m not too sure!
Contenders
Valverde is obviously the first name to spring to mind for a finish like this. He won the stage in Catalunya and has been his usual imperious self this season! Having not raced for a while his form is a bit unknown, but the Spaniard always turns up at the big races. Taking a few bonus seconds here could set him in good stead for an assault on the GC title.
Kwiatkowski could be the Spaniards biggest challenger. Another rider who has not raced for a while, the former World Champion seems to have returned to his glory days this season having already won Strade Bianche and Milan San Remo. In Pais Vasco he was competing in the flatter reduced sprints and he certainly packs the speed to go well tomorrow.
Ulissi is a rider who on paper would relish this type of finish. Yet, with so many others, it is tough to know where his form currently is! I would not be surprised to see him in the top 5.
Gallopin should like the punchy circuit and with his fast kick he could be another rider challenging for a podium place.
There is one outsider who I would like to mention.
Dan Martin.
He’s no slouch in a sprint from GC contenders and if we do get a properly reduced group like I think we will then he could sneak a podium place. Will he be given the chance if some of his team-mates make it? Hopefully!
Prediction
A tougher day than some might predict, but Valverde will continue his incredible 2017 with another win!
With Dan Martin not too far behind him!
Betting
I think the 25/1 on Valverde looks massive value at the moment, it is a shame that I’ve just realised that Bet365 are offering win only ;
SkyBet are offering EW places though so bet with them if you can. I’m not too fussed with having to take Valverde straight up as I’m not allowed more than 0.5pt on with them Sky, so 365 it is for Valverde.
As for Martin, he is “EW value” so only bet if you can get him EW!
2pts WIN Valverde @ 25/1 with Bet365 (same price with SkyBet)
0.5pt EW Dan Martin @ 150/1 with SkyBet.
Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win tomorrow and by what means? Anyway,
Those were My Two Spokes Worth.
MyTwoSpokesWorth 