Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 17 Preview; Tirano -> Canazei

Today’s Recap

Well, that didn’t disappoint!

The stage had everything, although for a while it did look as if it was turning into a damp squib. That was until chaos ensued when Dumoulin had some bowel pressure just before the start of the final climb.

Should the peloton have waited?

In my opinion, I would say no but I think that for most situations during a race.

There needs to be a larger consensus amongst the peloton about what to do in these types of situations. For one, I would in fact not be bothered if they stopped, but they would have to stop every time something like this happened to a rider. There would need to be consistency as unwritten, morally based rules don’t provide any clear guidance at all.

Just to play devil’s advocate here as well; why do people have a different view towards the GC leader, compared to lets say the Sprint leader if they are held up before the end of a stage? Both leading a classification, both with a chance of retaining the jersey but one is viewed as poor sportsmanship while the other is just racing…

While I’m being controversial, the peloton didn’t really push on much at the start of the climb, it looked as if they were just riding tempo. Quintana even radioed to the team car and it looked as if he was struggling to figure out what to do. It was then Zakarin’s attack that forced the other GC riders to close and Bahrain started riding more aggressively on the front.

But ya know, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion as to what happened and how it should have been dealt with. I’m sure some of you will agree with me, some of you will disagree and that’s OK, debate is good!


Back to the stage, and week-three Nibali reared his head to drive the group on near the top of the Umbrailpass, before dropping them all on the descent and in the meantime catching Landa. Those two forged on, with the Shark outsmarting/out-sprinting the Sky rider to the line.

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Quintana came home not long after in third place.

Dumoulin still keeps the leader’s jersey though and he will be looking to recover (that is if he is actually ill and it was not a freak occurrence) during tomorrow’s stage. Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

Another long stage with a lot of climbing coming in the first half of the day.

T17_Canazei_alt

We have a double header of Cat-2 climbs with the Aprica (12.3km at 6.3%) and the Passo del Tonale (11km at 5.7%), in the first 60km of the stage. Whoever makes the morning move will certainly have to be a solid climber!

From there, the stage is up and down for the rest of the day but nothing too severe. The stage profile makes it look tougher than it actually is and the last 70km averages just over 1% in gradient. After today’s stage though, that will/could certainly feel like more!

As for the run in to Canazei itself, the road snakes its way through the valley towards the finish line.

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T17_Canazei_ukm_web

Rising ever so slightly through the Flamme Rouge before descending to the finish line. Well, when I say descending, it’s -0.8% for 750m so pretty much flat!

How will the stage pan out?

After today’s monster of a stage you would expect it to be a breakaway day and that is the most likely outcome. There will be a lot of tired legs in the peloton and I’m sure a lot of riders will be happy to see a large group of 15 guys go up the road and for that to be that.

However, I do wonder if some of the sprinters who are left might fancy their chances. As I mentioned above, the profile makes the stage look deceptively hard, but I definitely think someone like Gaviria could manage the end of the day. If not him, Stuyven certainly would have a chance in this type of company. Even Modolo, can climb well enough to make the end of the day.

It is just a question of whether their respective teams want to put the resources into a chase or instead play the famous…

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Breakaway Candidates

Of course, we might even see some of those sprinters try to make the morning move but it will be tough considering the start of the stage we have. Like usual, I’ll throw a couple of names into the hat.

I’ve been waiting for this day for a while, and those of you who have been reading this blog since last year will no exactly where I’m going with this…

Daniel Teklehaimanot.

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Yup, it’s Eritrean Independence Day! After my ill-fated backing of Kudus last year, this Giro I’m turning my attention to the affectionately known “Tickler”. I’m deciding to ignore his team-mate and fellow countryman Berhane because he was in the break today. Teklehaimanot is an all round solid bike rider, who is good on the climbs but also on the flat. He isn’t known for his fast kick, but he did look strong earlier in the rest sprinting for mountain points. It will take some Steve Cummings cunning to win tomorrow, but he has a good a chance as anyone else!

Cesare Benedetti.

The first KOM leader of the race is from the region of Trentino, hailing from the town of Rovereto. Although the stage doesn’t go through his home town, I imagine the Italian will have plenty of local support and I would not be surprised to see his friends and family out on the roadside cheering him on. He’s been relatively anonymous recently so I think he might have been saving himself, with one eye on this stage. Another all-rounder, he’ll need a bit of luck to win but you can’t count him out!

Prediction

It really is a tough stage to call, and it all depends on who makes the break/doesn’t. As I’ve mentioned above, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of the faster riders to make the move, such as a Stuyven or Gaviria.

However, being flamboyant and all of that, I’ll go for the Tickler to take a memorable stage win on a national holiday for his country! He’ll attack solo in the final 10km à la Cummings, and while everyone bickers behind as to who should start chasing, he builds up an insurmountable gap.

Here’s some music for you to listen to tonight… 😉

Betting

Small stakes plays again to have an interest in the day;

All with Bet365

0.5pt WIN Teklehaimanot @ 100/1

0.5pt WIN Benedetti @ 200/1

1pt WIN Gaviria @ 40/1

Thanks as always for reading, any feedback is greatly appreciated as normal. Who do you think will win? Will we see a break make it all the way to the line or will the sprinters spring a surprise? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

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