Tag: break of the day

Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 9 Preview; Montenero di Bisaccia -> Blockhaus

Today’s Recap

The break just managed to hold on and Izagirre took his first World Tour win after a battle between his fellow escapees saw Conti crash in the closing kilometre. Visconti got close to finish second, with Luis Leon Sanchez coming home in third.

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Will the breakaway riders have their fun tomorrow, or will the GC riders come out to play properly? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A slightly hilly but mainly flat start to the day. The stage is all about the final climb and the approach to it.

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The road starts rising at 25.9km to go and if you take it from that point, then it averages a shade under 6% for the duration; that’s tough!

However, the “official” start of the climb is with 13.6km left.

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Averaging close to 8.4% it is a killer of a climb. Even more so when you consider that for 8.5km it averages 9.4%! You would expect the middle section to be the more decisive part of the climb as it features the steepest ramps of the day at 14%. The closing kilometre does level out a bit so if we get a couple of riders come in together then there is a chance of an uphill sprint.

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Unlike on Etna, it looks as if we will get a West/South-West wind tomorrow which means that it will be a tail or cross tail for most of the climb. Hopefully this will make for some attacking riding!

How will the stage pan out?

It’s really hard to tell and if anyone confidently tells you how it will pan out, they’re lying.

With there being a rest day on Monday followed by the TT on Tuesday, you would expect that the GC guys will go crazy, knowing that their team won’t have to put in any extra work until Wednesday.

Yet, we’ve already witnessed a lack of willingness to chase from the bunch.

They should have been able to claw back Polanc on Etna but there was a lot of stop-starting and I fear we might see the same tomorrow. Not to the same extent, but they might let the break drift up the road before going crazy behind. Therefore we could well see a race on two fronts.

Breakaway Candidates

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To win the rider will obviously have to be a good climber, but with the rolling terrain at the start it might be hard for some of the really light guys to make it.

Nonetheless, I’ll throw a few names into the mix, nothing extensive.

Cristian Rodriguez – I’ll give the Wilier rider another chance on a stage that should suit him more. He was climbing with the best on Etna and as he is no threat for the overall he could be given the leeway in the break.

Matvey Mamykin – Katusha were obviously annoyed to have missed the break today and I’m sure they won’t make the same mistake again. The young Russian is surprisingly good at finding himself in the right move, but he’s failed to take advantage yet. Can he turn it around tomorrow? A big win is on the horizon for him.

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Kenny Elissonde – It would be very unlike Sky to send someone up the road on a stage like this at the Tour, but it is the Giro so they might have a change of plan? With someone up the road, they can play the “we’re not going to chase” card, conserving energy behind. Elissonde is sprightly enough to win from a break, but he’s way down on GC so he is no concern for the other teams.

Natnael Berhane – Dimension Data have been ever-present in breakaways throughout the Giro, only missing out on a few stages. Berhane has been relatively anonymous so far but he wasn’t too far off the GC guys on Etna. Maybe he’s been saving himself for this stage?

GC Riders

The GC battle is hard to figure out, there’s been a lot of poker playing going on so far.

I’m still unsure whether they’ll chase hard behind to set up the stage win. Nonetheless, if for stage glory or not, you would have to expect the weaker TT riders to have a go to try to gain some time before they inevitably lose it again.

Yates is one that springs to mind, he’s been looking good so far. Will Quintana turn on the afterburners and just blitz everyone? What about the Sky 1-2? Landa made a probing dig today, will we see a similar situation, with Thomas sitting in behind ready to counter. FDJ did a lot of pace making in the closing part of today’s stage so they must confident in Pinot’s current form.

Of course, anyone else from the list of favourites could go well, or they could crumble. It really is an open day of racing. I’m just hoping that makes it exciting and open, not a dull and defensive day in the saddle.

Prediction

As you can probably gather by now, I’m not really sure what to make of this stage! I’ll go for a race on two fronts, with the breakaway holding out for the win after getting an insurmountable lead.

Berhane to seize the day!

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Betting

Another day I don’t want to get overly involved with so small 0.25pts WIN punts on each of the break candidates;

(All with B365)

Elissonde @ 250/1

Rodriguez @ 200/1

Mamykin @ 300/1

Berhane @ 250/1

 

Apologies this is a bit shorter than usual, there’s not much to talk about Route-wise and I’m in a rush to get this finished. Normal service shall resume for the TT! Who do you think will win tomorrow, will it be the break or a GC rider? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 Preview; Molfetta -> Peschici

Today’s Recap

Dull day, great finish.

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We ended up with a three-up sprint almost, with Ewan finally getting his stage win, beating Gaviria and Bennett in the process.

Nothing much else to talk about as the day was a typically dull transition stage. Hopefully things are slightly more exciting tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A medium mountain stage with all of the climbing packed into the second half of the day.

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With almost 80km of flat roads, the fight for the breakaway could be pretty intense. Well, it normally would, but this Giro has been different in that regard so who knows. The route does hug the coast-line for all of that opening 80km but early forecasts show the wind to be a little benign so it is unlikely that we’ll see some echelons. How disappointing!

The Cat 2 climb of Monte Sant’Angelo is 9.5km long, averaging just over 6%. It’s not overly tough and comes too far from the finish to cause any hassle.  Likewise, the following Cat 4 ascent of Coppa Santa Tecla is still too far from the end of the stage to be an issue for both the bunch and the break.

It looks as if it will be a stage that will come down to the final 15km.

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We don’t get much information about the uncategorised climbs before the descent and rise to the finish, which you can see above, so you know the drill…

Strava profile, viewable here.

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If you take the rise as a whole, then it is roughly 5 km at 3.9%. Not bad, but it can be split into 1.9km at 6.3% and 2.4km at 4.7%, with a little bit of descent in between. The steepest ramps of the second section come at the start of the climb, so a lightweight rider might want to attack there before it flattens out down to 2-3% before the top.

We then have our fast descent and climb to the line.

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It is important to note how technical the climb is itself with a sharp hairpin at around 300m to go and it still even twists and turns from there.

Who will be raising their arms aloft as they cross the finish line first?

How will the stage pan out?

It should be a break. There might be a few teams who will fancy controlling it and setting up a certain rider but that will be very hard to do.

I’m sure most of the teams will want it to be a break, especially with the tough finish of Blockhaus coming the following day, they’ll want to conserve as much energy as possible.

So it’s that time again where we play…

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Candidates

It’s even more difficult to successfully pick someone for the break tomorrow because the opening half of the stage, where the break will be formed, is completely different to what they’ll face at the end of the day. When has that ever stopped me before though?!

There seems to be a recurring theme at this Giro so far where teams with GC contenders have been a bit wary about getting guys up the road, with the only exception being Trek and BMC on Stage 6. Will this pattern continue as the main contenders look towards stage 9? Quite possibly, so I’ll be considering riders from teams without a GC contender, or one that can at least mount a reasonable top 5 charge.

Cristián Rodríguez.

The young Wilier rider has impressed me a lot during this race so far. He was up with the GC contenders on Etna until a very untimely mechanical saw him drop out of that group. Nonetheless, he got himself going again, limiting the damage to one minute. He lost a lot of time on the echelons of stage 3, so he is no immediate threat on GC. Clearly in great form, he would have a great chance if he makes the move.

Davide Villella.

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After Cannondale made a mess of Stage 6, I’m sure they won’t make the same mistake tomorrow. Looking at their squad, Villella looks like an ideal candidate for this type of strong man’s finish. A former winner of the Baby Il Lombardia, he finished 5th there in the full edition last season. Packing a solid uphill kick, his fellow breakees will not want to bring him to the line.

Matej Mohoric.

The former U23 World Champion is slowly finding his feet at World Tour level and with UAE active in attacks so far, they’ll no doubt try to send someone up the road tomorrow. A coming of age performance is on the cards!

Now for something a bit different…

If you follow me on Twitter you’ll know that on the preview for today’s stage (6) that I received a very constructive comment from a Mr Wong.

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So I thought I’d take this feedback on board with a brand new segment for breakaway days or stages that are in the balance…

Wong’s Wildcard/ The Wongshot

Basically, I’ve copied the startlist and created a list on random.org and well, erm, randomised it for a rider. I’ll then create a possible scenario where and how said rider might win. Tomorrow’s guy is…

Stef Clement.

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Although the Dutch rider is on domestique duty for Kruijswijk, his team leader gives him the nod to chase stage honours. As a strong all-rounder, Clement makes the break with ease but also follows well on the hills as some of the other escapees put in probing attacks. Coming into the closing 15km, Clement knows that his form isn’t that great and he’s not explosive enough to beat the other guys on the final climb, so he decides to attack on a pan-flat section with 17km left. With some hesitation behind, the gap quickly grows to 30 seconds as everyone else looks around. They eventually get organised but it’s too late, and the Dutchman holds on to take a great win!

Prediction

Breakaway stays away and I’ll for an impressive young Spaniard to have the required kick on the final climb to steal stage honours. Rodríguez to win!

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In before Clement wins…

Betting

Small punts on breakaway guys(all Bet 365);

Rodriguez 0.3pt WIN @ 300/1

Mohoric 0.4pt WIN @ 80/1 

Villella is too short at 40/1 for a breakaway pick so instead I’m backing…

Grosschartner 0.3pt WIN @ 200/1

 

Also, I would like to point out now that the blog has gained a bit more traction during the Giro that I don’t see myself as a proper tipster or anything like that. It was never the intention when starting this whole thing up. It’s more a case that I enjoy writing the previews and trying to deconstruct how the race might plan out, often with an extravagant twist. I see them more as a guide to the following day’s racing more than anything else. My very original posts had no “pts” etc advised on them, just a general idea of who I was backing. However, people requested that I do so and I eventually just added them in at the end of each preview.

I don’t charge for the previews, you’re not forced to back anyone I do. I just put a few bets on to have someone to back for the day and make the sport even more enjoyable to watch! Don’t wager anything more than you can afford to lose.

Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 6 Preview; Reggio Calabria -> Terme Liugiane

Today’s Recap

We did get that inevitable sprint in the end, with no turning of the wind in the morning. Much to my disappointment!

It was Gaviria and QuickStep who timed the charge to the line perfectly in a tricky head-wind sprint, beating a fast finishing Mareczko and Bennett to the line.

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Will the Colombian be there to compete at the finish line tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Back onto mainland Italy, we head north along the west coast of the country to Terme Liugiane. At 217km it is a long day out in the saddle for the riders but surprisingly it is only the 6th longest stage of the race!

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A flat start to the day changes after 25km where we have the first categorised climb of the day, before a descent and a run towards the TV’s which really should be KOMs more than anything!

Once we pass the second TV, the parcours is flat for the following 100km or so but it is in the last 30km of the day where things start to get interesting and the road starts undulating more seriously again. At roughly 25km to go we have a 1.5km climb that averages over 7% and this should shake out some of the sprinters. A short descent follows before it kicks up again for another kilometre before continuing the descent again.

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The penultimate rise before the line which crests at 5km to go. Averaging 5.9% for a kilometre it’s not too tough but it will be attacked at a fast pace because there is a very technical section once they are over the top.

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The quick succession of hairpins will string things out even more as they continue towards the finish. A series of false flat and shallow descending will take riders to the 2km to go banner where they turn left and start climbing to the line.

Initially the rise is not that steep, roughly 2% for a kilometre, but the second kilometre is closer to 7% with a 10% max gradient.

You don’t want to open up the effort too early and be left flagging by the line. It’s the same finished that was used back in 2003 so you can get a rough idea of who will be fighting for the win.

Break or no break? That is the question.

As so often is the case when we get stages that don’t have a clear narrative, i.e. the nailed on sprint stage such as today, we’re once again left discussing if the break makes it or not.

Over the past few stages we have had no “fight” at all to make the move, with the longest it taking being 11km back on stage 3 for the escapees to get a sizeable gap. Furthermore, we haven’t had a big group go yet either, with most of the breakaways consisting of 4 riders.

However, I think all of that will change tomorrow and there will be a greater motivation within the peloton to send riders up the road.

The reason for this is that as I have mentioned above, there is no clear-cut outcome for this stage so it will take a lot of resources from a team if they want to control it. Secondly, there are big enough GC gaps now to let riders get in the move and not be worried about the overall picture. QuickStep might even be happy to relinquish the jersey for a few days! With a few awkward stages to come and with one-eye on Blockhaus, I don’t think the GC guys will be overly fussed about keeping it together for a crazy final 20km, hoping to sprint for bonus seconds.

Therefore, I think the break has a good chance of making it all the way. We’ll see a move of around 10-12 riders go and that will be it for the day.

Contenders

Like normal, I’ll throw a few names into the hat; some sensible-ish, some curveballs and hopefully at least get someone up the road!

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Thinking cap on…

Matteo Busato.

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The Willier rider has been very quiet this race so far, rolling home every day. That could be because he is conserving as much energy as possible and targeting a few stages, or he might just be ill. I’m obviously hoping it’s the former! Still without a pro win in his career, he is a solid climber who packs a good sprint so he should be able to handle this explosion finish. Firstly it is a question of making the break, but then who is there with him. He certainly has a chance of taking his first win in the correct company.

Enrico Battaglin.

A strong rider who has taken two wins at the Giro in the past, he seems to be turning his hand to the sprints at this race. Nonetheless, he is much more adept at the short hills and tomorrow’s stage looks ideal for him. Exceptionally impressive at this race last year, working as the main lieutenant for Kruijswijk in the first couple of weeks, he looks back to that form again. I think he might be given the freedom to attack tomorrow before returning to team duties later in the race. He is a rider the others will be wary of if he makes the move.

Patrick Konrad.

The Austrian arrived here as Bora’s long-shot GC hope but he drifted way out of contention on Etna and finds himself over 10 minutes behind Jungels. Maybe he has caught whatever Bennett had the other day? If not, like a few others he could well just be conserving energy to attack some stages. Tomorrow looks like a good day for him as he is a strong all-rounder but packs a fast-punchy sprint which will suit him in good stead for the final rise to the line. His 7th on GC in Pais Vasco at the end of April is testament to his climbing ability as well!

Edward Ravasi.

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A promising young Italian climber, the UAE Emirates rider finished second at the Tour de l’Avenir last year. Not a big name in the peloton just now, he may benefit from that anonymity to surprise from the break!

Prediction

I’ll go for a rider who seems to go well here to take the win. The finish looks great for him and he has a chance from both the break and if we get a bigger group come to the line. Battaglin to steal the day!

Giro d'Italia - Stage 14

Anyone clock my awfully sly (or just plain awful) Twitter link pun?

Betting

As it’s a break day, I’ll go WIN Only on everyone, all with Bet365;

1.3pt Battaglin @ 16/1

0.4pt Konrad @ 80/1 

0.3pt Ravasi (Not priced)

0.4pt Busato @ 125/1 

0.4pt Ravasi (priced eventually) @ 200/1

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will take the stage and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Romandie 2017 Stage 3 Preview; Payerne -> Payerne

Today’s Recap

All hail King Küng!

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The young Swiss rider took a great win in grizzly conditions as he and his fellow breakee Grivko managed to beat the bunch on the run in to Bulle. Potentially helped by a questionably late gel, the BMC rider held off the Astana man in what seemed a slow motioned sprint.

Behind, Colbrelli crossed the line first to round out the days podium.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another rolling day out in the saddle for the riders, with a reasonable amount of climbing. With a flat finish will it end in a sprint this time?

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@LasterketaBurua

You can view an interactive profile of the stage here.

The majority of the climbing comes in the middle part of the day but there is nothing too serious for the peloton to contend with. They crest the final GPM  at 28km to go and the rest of the stage is made up of shallow descents, false flat, and flat!

There is a roundabout at roughly 2km to go, but aside from that the finish is incredibly easy and not technical at all.

I’m sure the riders will be glad to here that the weather is looking better as well, with the majority of the rain coming in the morning, not the afternoon.

 

 

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Source: Wunderground

Although that was what was forecasted for today and yeah…it wasn’t exactly dry in the afternoon…

So don’t trust any forecast for around here!

How will the stage pan out?

Originally, I had thought that with today’s stage ending in a sprint that tomorrow might be a day for the break. But with the shock result from this afternoon, I’m unsure as to how it might go tomorrow.

We saw today that a lot of the teams were unwilling to commit 100% to the chase in grim weather. Will that change for tomorrow?

I’m not so sure.

So I’ll stick to my original guns and say that tomorrow is another breakaway day.

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With the two tough GC days ahead, I’m sure a lot of riders will just want to get around safely and we’ll see a relatively large group with a fair few teams represented get up the road.

Break Candidates

Normally I would say that a rider would have to be over 2 minutes behind at this point for them to be allowed to stay away. However, Trek have been pretty poor this week at chasing down the break and they lost another domestique (Hernandez) in today’s stage so they’ll have even less firepower.

Therefore someone who is relatively close could escape if they are deemed to not stand a chance the following two days. Consequently, this makes selecting some breakaway riders even more of a lottery!

I’ll give it a go though…

Daniel Oss.

The guitar playing BMC man hasn’t featured at the front of the race yet which is a bit surprising as he loves a breakaway. A strong rouleur he should be able to power over the climbs tomorrow. The Swiss outfit don’t have a proper sprinter as such so they’ll look to get a rider up the road again and Oss fits that bill perfectly. Maybe he’ll want a hit out before going to the Giro?

Alex Dowsett.

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A strong second place on the opening day highlights that Dowsett is in reasonable shape. He managed to hold on to the peloton much longer than I expected on Stage 1 but he eventually succumbed and lost almost 5 minutes. Like BMC, Movistar don’t have a proper sprinter with them so I imagine they’ll want to stretch their legs tomorrow. Dowsett could well be that man!

Alexander Edmondson.

After his fourth place finish today to follow up his third in the prologue, the young Aussie will be brimming with confidence. Down on GC after stage 1, he or Sam Bewley are Orica’s two cards to play for the break as they shouldn’t be chased. Getting a man up the road will be important for them because a lot of teams were looking at them today to do some work for Albasini. Of course, if they have a rider in the break, they don’t have to! We saw today he has a fast sprint, so might well fancy his chances at another podium finish.

I was going to think of another rider to name but I’ll just leave it at that. After today’s stage, tomorrow doesn’t really grip my attention that much and I’m looking forward to the opener in Yorkshire instead!

Prediction

A break stays away with a few of the sprinters teams represented and Trek unwilling to chase all day.

Oss to *ahem* boss it and win!

Amgen Tour of California, 2015

Betting

Small stakes on the breakers. Not having a great time of it at the moment and my confidence is shook! Although Edmondson is awful odds, I mean Oss is borderline but the Aussie is too short after his sprint today so he’ll be replaced with someone else I like…

0.5pt WIN Oss @ 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pt WIN Dowsett @ 80/1 

0.2pt WIN Campenaerts @ 100/1

 

Anyway, thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will it be a sprint or will the break stay away?

 

Tour of the Alps 2017 Stage 4 Preview; Bolzano -> Cles

*Insert usual disclaimer about this being short, blah blah blah. Woke up late, missed all the live cycling today and I’m in a rush to complete this. Sincerest apologies, I promise a full length preview tomorrow evening!*

Today’s Recap

Not the large GC gaps I was expecting but stage winner and new GC leader Thomas now holds a modest 16 second gap over, third home rider of the day, Pozzovivo. It was Landa who followed the Welshman home to complete a Sky 1-2. They look ominously strong for the Giro.

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Let’s have a look what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

An easier day in the saddle? Well yes, in terms of the finish, but there is still a lot of climbing throughout the day!

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I imagine the break won’t go until the 14km long Passo Mendola and when it does, it will be a strong one.

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We then have a lot of rolling terrain and uncategorised climbs throughout the middle of the stage before approaching the final categorised climb of the day.

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Brutally steep, it comes too far from the finish to be of any danger for the GC riders but it should see a selection in the break.

We then have a long descent before some more undulating roads, all the way to the finish line which is ever so slightly downhill.

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Will it be the scene of a reduced bunch sprint…

How will the stage pan out?

There is the possibility that some of the GC teams try and take control of the race and make it tough, but I can’t really see that happening.

It could stay together for a sprint, but that would require Bora to take control for Pelucchi and hope that the Italian makes it over the climbs. Given his track record, that’s also unlikely! Androni might try something for Gavazzi but they will most likely use their resources elsewhere, so…

Nestle Breakaway Milk Chocolate Biscuit 8 Pack 152G

Candidates

Like normal, I’ll through a few names into the hat on this lottery of a day. For the break not to be chased hard, then the rider will need to be at least three minutes down so that get’s rid of 27 guys. Only the 108 left to choose from then…

Mattia Cattaneo. 

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The former Baby Giro winner seems to have found his feet this season with Androni after failing to live up to his potential in the past few years at Lampre. He’s had a string of good top 10s this year and took the final stage in La Provence. At almost 4 minutes down he isn’t too much of a threat for the overall and I expect him to be attacking over the next few days and that could well be tomorrow!

Stefano Pirazzi.

The Bardiani rider infuriated his breakaway companions yesterday after refusing to work and then attacking just as the peloton was about to catch them. He seems in a sprightly mood and always manages to go well in this race. Way down on GC, he is an ideal candidate for a breakaway win.

Manuel Senni.

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After taking the leader’s jersey in Valenciana, the BMC rider has had a fairly promising season, with his third place in Appennino being his best individual result. He looked good that day and with BMC’s best placed rider (Caruso) sitting 8th on GC, the American outfit will have the freedom to attack and chase stage wins. Senni is a good mix of being a good enough climber to get away, but also not being Dennis, because the Aussie is too big a name to let up the road.

Think I’ll just leave it with those three as I could go on forever giving arguments for other riders.

Prediction

Breakaway stays away and I’ll go for a lively Pirazzi to take the win!

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Betting

All with B365;

Pirazzi 0.5pt WIN @ 12/1

Cattaneo 0.4pt WIN @ 14/1

Senni 0.4pt WIN @ 80/1

Adding Ludvigsson 0.2pt WIN @ 150/1 

 

Thanks as always for reading and apologies again for another brief preview. How do you think tomorrow’s stage will pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Volta Catalunya Stage 6 Preview; Tortosa -> Reus

Today’s Recap

I should never have doubted him for a minute!

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Valverde won the stage easily, ahead of Froome and Contador. With the stage win and his 21 second gap back to the Brit, the GC battle is well and truly over for the week. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another rolling day in the saddle. What else can do the riders expect in this region though?!

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@LasterketaBurua

After a few kilometres of flat right from the gun, the riders will then face the long and gradual Cat3 ascent of the Alt de Bot. This certainly looks a good place for a breakaway to be let go, but considering that everyone knows that it typically won’t be! Instead, it might be the rolling terrain afterwards and around the 4okm at Gandesa where the correct group of riders are finally let go.

More, you guessed it, rolling terrain follows. Before we have three categorised climbs in quick succession. None is tough enough to cause splits in the peloton, but they could do some damage to the break. Especially if there are some riders up the road who don’t want to have a sprint at the end of the day.

We have a descent almost all the way to the line once they have traversed the plateau after of the final climb, although admittedly, some of the descending is more false flat than downhill.

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The road does rise up in the final few kilometres but it averages over just 1% for the last 2km so nothing too serious. We do have a roundabout at 500m to go which could be used as a ploy for a late attack from the break.

How will the stage pan out?

I think you’ve guessed it by now…

Nestle Breakaway Milk Chocolate Biscuit 8 Pack 152G

Contenders

Names in a hat? As long as they are no threat on GC Movistar will be happy to let them go. That pretty much means anyone outside the top 20 so we have a lot of riders to choose from! Once again, I’ll suggest a few names that might give it a go.

Xandro Meurisse. 

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The Wanty rider seems to be plodding along quite nicely in this race and is climbing as well as I have seen for a while. Traditionally more of a puncheur, he only finished 15 seconds behind Van Garderen on today’s summit finish. If he gets in the break and can cope with any attacks on the final climb, he has a good chance of winning a sprint!

Peter Kennaugh.

I highlighted him on stage 1 and he did the preview justice on a day I was completely wrong, by giving it a little nudge off the front. He lost 5 minutes today, but considering he was one of the last Sky riders in the front group on Stage 3 I doubt that those losses will be due to bad form. Saving himself for tomorrow?

Gianluca Brambilla.

The Italian was suffering from illness not that long ago, but he’s still racing here which makes me think that he’s now over his bug. He made the break on stage 3 but dropped back to the peloton, but I think that was because teams were still unsure if he was a threat on GC. Or, maybe he is still ill! Nonetheless, he is way out of contention now and the final climb and finish suit him perfectly if he’s back to full fitness. That’s a big if, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take!

Lachlan Morton.

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Morton has had a quiet time of it so far this race, but he has been industrious at the front of the peloton when needed. Namely, doing work for Sbaragli on stages 1 and 4. The Aussie is a very solid climber, finishing 7th on the Green Mountain earlier this year in Oman. With no GC hopes, Dimension Data will be chasing stages and Morton may well be that man!

Prediction

He looked good on Stage 3 and should survive the climb if he’s in the break. If he’s not and we for some reason get a reduced peloton fighting out the stage win, he could well attack once again in the closing kilometres.

Peter “what’s the women’s Giro” Kennaugh to win!

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Betting

Another day I don’t want to get overly involved with but I am most confident in Kennaugh so he gets the majority of the backing!

All B365.

0.7pt WIN Kennaugh @ 25/1

0.3pt WIN Brambilla @ 18/1 

0.25pt WIN Morton @ 250/1

0.25pt WIN Meurisse @ 80/1

 

Thanks for reading as always! Who do you think will win? Tomorrow will be a big day of previews with my final stage preview for this race, but also previews for the men’s and women’s Gent-Wevelgem. I hope you’ll be able to read them all! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Volta Catalunya Stage 4 Preview; Llívia -> Igualada

Today’s Recap

If I’m being honest, I didn’t catch much of today’s stage. Only the last 600m in fact, I was too busy watching Dwars! From what I saw, it seemed a fairly benign day and we got a sprint to the finish line between the two pre-stage favourites. It was Valverde who came out on top over Martin, exacting some revenge for Movistar who felt hard done by with the reversal of the commissaire’s decision this morning!

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Yates came home in third to pick up some bonus seconds, with the blog pick of Bardet coming 4th. Van Garderen holds a 41 second lead on the GC over team-mate Sanchez, but there are a whole host of riders queuing up behind the BMC duo if they were to falter.

Will we see any GC changes tomorrow? Let’s have a look at the route.

The Route

A weird route that starts with almost 100km of very shallow descending!

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Source: @LasterketaBurua

There is a sprint point on top of a small hill after only 6.2km so I expect the GC teams to keep the bunch together for that. It looks ideal for the likes of Valverde to nab a few bonus seconds.

We then have the long, gradual descent before the next main obstacle of the day; the cat 3 Alt del Pubill. Only 2.9km long and averaging 6%, it’s not overly difficult and I imagine the peloton will roll over it.

The course then rolls for the next 70km before we reach the main challenge of the day; the Cat 2 Turó del Puig. At 5.3km and only averaging 5.4% the GC riders won’t be troubled here, but due to its proximity to the finish line it should be tackled at a fair pace. This should see the end of the sprinters chances for the day.

Apologies for the poor quality image below, the road book doesn’t offer much to play with!

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They’ll then descend all the way until 2km to go where we have a fairly technical finale. Two 90-degree turns and a roundabout feature in the last kilometre. It’s a typical Spanish end to the day and will no doubt be suitably manic!

That is of course if we end up with some type of sprint.

How will the stage pan out?

With the peloton very much spread out on GC already there is a good chance we could get a breakaway stay away tomorrow.

The position of the last climb will make it too hard for Bouhanni and Greipel to make it over with the peloton but it’s not hard enough to cause some GC gaps. We could quite well see the type of sprint I thought we might get on Stage 1, where there’s a peloton of around 50 guys who come to the finish together.

Valverde might fancy his chances of winning the sprint and taking some more bonus seconds along with it. However, that will mean another day of work for Movistar when they don’t have to and I’m sure they’d rather save their efforts for the brutal finish on Stage 5.

So I’ll go for a break, and give it a 70/30 chance that it makes it.

Breakaway Contenders

There are many, many riders who will be given plenty of freedom tomorrow so it’s just a case of me once again trying to give some (hopefully) well-reasoned logic behind my picks and of course a bit of luck for them to make it.

It’s not helped when there’s a bout of illness going around the peloton just now and we’re none the wiser as to who is actually fighting fit. Oh well, here goes nothing!

Nathan Haas.

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The Aussie is here building form for his next goals in the season (Amstel) and what better way to do that then out in the break?! He admitted that he was suffering on the first day but sounded hopefully that it blew the cobwebs away. Tomorrow’s stage looks ideally suited to his characteristics, with the climbs not being too difficult. Packing a fast sprint, you wouldn’t want to bring him to the line.

Petr Vakoc.

Like Haas, the Czech rider is here building form for his classics campaign. An 8th place finish on stage 1 where the run in to the line didn’t really suit him highlights to me that he’s going fairly well at the moment. A proper brute of a rider, the Cat-2 at the end of tomorrow’s stage will be on his limit but if the right riders are up the road, he certainly has a chance.

Jordi Simon.

One of only 4 Funvic riders left in the race, the Catalan native will have pressure from his team to perform here. Not only that, but I’m sure he will want to perform too as tomorrow’s stage passes his hometown. An explosive climber, he isn’t the most well-known rider in the peloton and doesn’t have too many results to his name. A third place at nationals last year was his best finish, but hey, stranger things have happened!

Damien Howson.

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The Orica man took a much deserved GC win in the Herald Sun Tour earlier in the season. A great reward for being a super domestique for Chaves last year! On his return to European racing he finished a respectable 19th in Industrio, helping Yates to victory. Far enough down not to be a GC threat, he would be one of the favourites if he made the break due to his climbing and TT prowess.

Prediction

Break wins and I’ll go for Quick Step to continue that feel good factor within their team and Petr Vakoc to take the win!

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He’ll use his explosive kick to attack away from his breakaway companions on the steady gradients of the final climb and not be seen again until they cross the finish line!

Betting

Crapshoot of a stage and not one I want to get massively involved with; 0.25pt WIN on all the selections.

Vakoc @ 28/1 with B365

Haas @ 33/1 with B365

Simon @ 200/1 with B365

Howson @  Not quoted, so I’ll go with…

Clement @ 300/1 with Bet365 (similar build to Howson, decent climber but strong TTer).

 

Thanks again for reading! How do you think tomorrow will play out? Will we see a break make it, or will it come down to a reduced bunch kick, or even a late attack? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Tirreno Adriatico Stage 6 Preview

Today’s Recap

An incredibly exciting stage, and I only managed to catch the final 40km. We had attacks from GC guys and one-day specialists but the peloton arrived at the finish climb together, well, what remained of it.

Much like Gary Lineker’s quote about football being “a simple game where 22 men-chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end, the Germans win.”

Cycling is a simple sport where 180 riders cycle for 5 hours and in the end, Sagan wins!

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The World Champion clawed his way back to a group of GC favourites as they sat up and played games. Not exactly the best move by them! It was then academic as we got to the slight uphill sprint finish. Pinot and Roglic rounded out the podium.

What’s in store for the riders tomorrow? Let’s have a look.

The Route

A shorter day in the saddle, which I’m sure will please some tired riders.

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We have a lot of undulating roads in the first three quarters of the stage but there is nothing too serious for the bunch to be concerned with.

A long period of flat with around 30km to go could see the end of the breakaway, and we then have one little test before the finish.

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1.7km at 4.7% average could be challenging for the sprinters if they’re on a bad day, but you would expect them to hold on. However, the little descent then 500m section at 7.4% could be a great launchpad for an attack before we have a tricky and technical descent.

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The pan-flat and almost dead straight finish may spell the end of any would be attackers though if the pack is organised behind.

How will the stage pan out?

Just like Natalie Imbruglia, I’m torn.

So this will be a split preview of sorts.

On paper, this should be a sprint with it being only the second opportunity all race for a bunch gallop to the line. With the sprinters close to peak condition for Milan San Remo, they should manage the final climb as it’s very similar to the Poggio. It does come a lot closer to the finish so the battle back to the front will be a lot more difficult if you slip to the back of the pack.

Yet, after a very tough two days the peloton might want to have an easier day in the saddle. Although saying that, with it being the last road stage of the race I’m sure we’ll see an attacking day. We only have four proper sprinters here that could contend at the finish in my opinion (Sagan, Cavendish, Gaviria, Viviani) so other teams may look to the breakaway as their best option for the day. Will the teams of the sprinters be willing to work on the front all day? That’s the million pound question. In his preview with @Cyclingmole (starts around 18:10 mark) Jay Thomson sounded fairly confident in a sprint, but will that have changed after the past two days?

I think if we get representation from at least two of the sprinters teams; Bora, Dimension Data, QuickStep and Sky, then the break will stay away.

Sprinters

As mentioned earlier, the 4 riders listed are a class above in a field like this and you would expect them to populate the top of the standings.

In a flat sprint you would have to favour Cavendish or Gaviria. The Dimension Data rider has a very strong team with him here, capable of delivering a very strong lead-out. His favourite pilot fish Mark Renshaw is here and they form a formidable duo. If the Manxman has recovered from his illness, he has a very good chance of winning this.

We don’t really know how well Gaviria may have gone on the opening sprint after he was held up in the crash. Like DD, Quickstep have a very good lead-out train here and no doubt they’ll be the two teams fighting for space at the head of the peloton. Having Boonen as a lead-out man isn’t that bad either! Gaviria has beaten Cavendish before and I’m sure he’d love to make a big statement before Milan San Remo.

You can never discount Sagan and the little hill close to the finish puts him more on terms with the other two. He clearly is motoring right now and a third stage win is not as unlikely as it seemed at the start of the race.

I’m still not convinced by Viviani this year. He did well to get up for second on stage 3 but he’s still without a win this year and I can’t see that changing here.

Breakaway Contenders

I’m going to pick two guys that were in the move today, plus another. All three are similar in style but ever so slightly different.

Steve Cummings.

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He’s been relatively quiet this season so far, but the Brit presents the best opportunity for Dimension Data in the break. He’s exceptionally strong on the flat and short climbs and he is capable of time trialling his way to the line if he gets a gap. Of course, he’s also a good ploy later on in the race to attack if Cavendish isn’t feeling up for it. Cummings won a similar stage here last year, although the final climb was slightly tougher then.

Niki Terpstra.

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I was pleasantly surprised to see Terpstra finish so far up the standings on stage 2. He is clearly building some nice form ahead of the cobbled classics. A rider in a similar mould to Cummings, although the Dutchman is probably better on the flat, he could find himself attacking the breakaway group near the end of the stage. Managing to hold on for the win.

Tim Wellens.

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You can’t ignore a rider like Wellens for this stage. He is in scintillating form in this early part of the season, already picking up 3 wins. His third place in Strade highlights how versatile of a rider he is. After being involved in the crash on stage 3, he’s since lost a lot of time on GC but has been resting up at the back of the peloton, apart from a probing attack on today’s stage.  With eyes on this stage maybe?

Prediction

If we get a sprint, I’ll go for Cavendish.

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He has the best train here and will be hungry to prove that he is a danger for MSR!

If we get a break, I’ll go for Wellens.

Betting

Cavendish 1.3pts WIN @ 11/2 with Bet365

Terpstra 0.25pts WIN @

Cummings 0.35pts WIN @ 40/1 with Bet365

Wellens 0.35pts WIN @ 66/1 with Bet365

 

Thanks as always for reading! How do you think the stage will pan out? Could be a finely balanced day, but the teams never seem to be thinking along the same lines as I am. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Paris Nice 2017 Stage 6 Preview; Aubagne -> Fayence

Today’s Recap

Close, but not close enough with Matthews, as he seemed to get boxed in with around 250m to go after being in a great position. Instead, it was Greipel who took an incredibly convincing win!

 

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He really is one of the best in the world at those power-type sprints. Anyway, let’s look ahead at tomorrow’s stage and what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

The toughest day in the saddle yet for the riders. I wonder how many of the sprinters will see the next few stages through?

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Starting off with the Col de l’Espigoulier straight from the gun is a brutal beginning for the riders. It does offer a great platform for a break to get up the road and build up a good lead. Just getting into the break will be tough! In theory we could see some of the GC contenders go wild from the start and try to isolate Alaphilippe but with the 100km of relative flat afterwards, that’s not a great idea.

The race then really heats up in the final 80km with 5 classified climbs. An “easy” Cat-2 and Cat-3 before we enter the final circuit and the Col de Bourigaille is ascended from two different sides. In terms of gradient they’re not the toughest climbs in the World, but the position of the second ascent does make it a good place for an attack. With only 19km left and the majority of it being descent, it will be hard for a group to bring back a leader if they have a small gap and co-operation is not 100%.

Once they hit the valley floor, the road rises up all the way to the finish line.

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It’s a very steep end to the day and it requires an explosive finish. Last time we were here it was Carlos Betancur who took the victory! I miss 2014 Carlos 😞.

I wouldn’t expect the GC time difference to be that big here, but we maybe could see 10 seconds separate the top 10 if a few riders let go of the wheel in front of them.

It actually looks like a great finish for our current GC leader and would present him with an opportunity to pick up more bonus seconds. I don’t think the rest of the peloton will want that so…

Nestle Breakaway Milk Chocolate Biscuit 8 Pack 152G

Contenders

As per usual, I’ll only name a handful of riders who I think might be able to make the move. With it being such a demanding start to the day, only 1 rider will be making their regular appearance on this list – watch the other two go on and make the break now!

Mathias Frank.

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The AG2R man has had a very solid start to the season, finishing 7th on GC in the Tour of Oman. Having lost a lot of time in the first few days, he’s no threat for the overall so should be given some leeway. He won the ridiculously steep finish up to Llucena in the Vuelta last year, so this 9.8% average gradient should be a walk in the park for him!

Mauro Finetto.

Yep, for the third preview out of six, I’ll name Finetto again! A great, punchy climber with an explosive finish. Some of the longer climbs out on the route might be an issue for him, but if he comes to the finish in Fayence with a group then he has every chance of taking the win.

Nicolas Edet.

The Frenchman actually had one of the fastest climbing times up Mont Brouilly in the TT. Always a rider who seems to be there in the breaks but just doesn’t have enough for the win (he doesn’t have a professional victory), his climbing form certainly seems to suggest that now is a good a time as ever!

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Credit goes to @ammattipyoraily  on Twitter for the table.

I’m going to take another rider off that list for my final selection.

Sam Oomen.

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The young Dutchman had an exceptionally good neo-pro season with Giant last year; managing to pick up a stage and the GC at the Tour de l’Ain, not to mention a 3rd place on GC at the Critérium International.  He then animated several races in the back-end of the year. This season has got off to a slower start for him, but he seems to be riding into some nice form and tomorrow looks like a great day for him to get up the road.

Prediction

I can’t not name him, right?! #ForzaFinetto

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Betting

Not a great day odds wise so this is a bit hesitant.

0.25pt WIN on them all;

Finetto @ 100/1 (Various)

Oomen @ 33/1 (Various)

Edet @ 150/1 (Ladbrokes)

Frank @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Do you think tomorrow is a breakaway day, or will we see a GC showdown on the final climb? It should be an exciting stage either way! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Paris Nice 2017 Stage 3 Preview; Chablis -> Chalon-sur-Saône

Today’s Recap

Another miserable day but we did get a modestly sized bunch gallop in Amilly as was expected. What was not expected however was the winner, Sonny Colbrelli. The Italian delivered an incredibly impressive sprint to hold off the likes of Degenkolb and Démare.

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I could have written yesterday’s preview 10 times and I don’t think Colbrelli’s name would ever be involved. Normally a great sprinter after a tough climbing day, maybe that should just be changed to a tough day in general?!

As for the blog bets, another annoying day as all 3 selections finished in the main peloton but either didn’t have the legs or weren’t positioned well in the closing kilometre. Oh well, on to tomorrow! Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

The tougher of the sprint stages in terms of terrain, we have two categorised climbs in the final 70km of the stage.

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The Côte de Grandmont is 2.4km at 4.9%, with the Côte de Charrecey being 2.1km long and an average gradient of 6.7%.

Not the toughest climbs in the world, but the Charrecey could certainly see the bunch split, especially after the tough two days we’ve already had. There are some tired bodies out there!

The run in is flat, but rather technical in the last 5km.

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As you can see, they have to traverse 3 roundabouts and a few sharp turns. Thankfully the final 2kms are straightforward but I imagine the peloton will be strung out by then so the fight for position will be crucial at just after 5km to go.

That is if we get a whole peloton coming into the finish together…

Weather Watch

It looks set to be another windy day for the bunch, well, at least the start of the day. The riders will also be thankful that it looks like they’ll miss the rain!

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The above forecast is for Noyers which is roughly 20km into the stage. As you can see, the wind isn’t as strong as it has been the past couple of days but at a constant speed of 20km/h it still has the potential to cause some damage. Particularly when you consider the direction of it and the fact that there will be a lot of tired bodies in the peloton.

How will the stage pan out?

I’m in two minds about this one.

We could well see a relatively straightforward sprint stage, with the strong sprint teams controlling the race all day. This is the easy option.

However, I am one to over think things tactically at times and the Cat-2 climb at 30km throws a spanner into the works. I’m not sure the likes of Kittel will make it over in the bunch because the smaller sprinters, such as Colbrelli, will want a high pace to get rid of the proper fast men. Therefore, will the likes of QuickStep and Lotto work all day?  Also you have to consider how brutal it has been the past couple of days so will the sprint teams have the energy to control everything all day? We saw today how tired Greipel, Kittel and Kristoff seemed at the end of the stage. With an important GC day coming up on Wednesday, I think a few of the riders will want to save their legs for that.

I think I’ve just convinced myself. Tomorrow is a day for the breakaway or late-attackers. The only issue is if FDJ get overly defensive with their yellow jersey.

There are plenty of riders who are no threat at all on GC in this race, even some of those within a minute of the leader, so choosing who might make the move is a lottery. They’ll need to be a decent climber but also strong on the flat and once again I find myself returning to a few names I threw into the hat on stage 1.

Break Contenders

Alexey Lutsenko.

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The Kazakh rider made a half-hearted attack today that was quickly nullified. You could argue that it was a poor attack and that he didn’t look strong, but I’m blinded by my PFCL3 loyalty (a season long fantasy game on Twitter for those unaware) and I think it was a dig more in anger than anything else. The end of this stage looks a carbon copy of the one he won here last year, just the start of it is nowhere near as hard. He’s a danger if he makes the break!

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Excerpt from the Astana website

Oliver Naesen.

With Bardet out of the race, the AG2R riders will be given freedom to attack. Naesen sprinted to 7th place today after missing the split on Sunday, getting a slightly “easier” rider then. A very tough rider who’s clearly on good form he’ll relish the possibility of the break making it tomorrow. Not afraid of an attack, he is certainly one to keep an eye on!

Mauro Finetto.

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My third re-selection from Sunday’s stage. Like Naesen, Finetto missed the split on the first stage but finished with the bunch today. He’s in very solid form this early season, picking up one win and several top 10 finishes. A very under-rated rider in my opinion, he should cope with the climbs easily and has a good sprint from a reduced bunch at the end of the day.

(I may also be blinded by PFCL3 loyalty with him too!)

Adding to the three from Sunday, there is one more rider I’d like to add.

Tony Martin.

Finished relatively well on stage 1 and in the second group today managing to have an “easier” day. He looked very strong on the first stage, doing a lot of the work in the chase for Zakarin, clawing back a lot of the gap himself. His form seems to be on the up for the Classics and we’ve seen in the past him attacking the day before a TT to stretch his legs. Give him a gap and he’ll be hard to bring back!

Prediction

Peloton takes it relatively easily and a rider in good form capitalises. Oliver Naesen to take the win!

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Betting

0.3pt WIN on them all.

Naesen @ 66/1 with Betfair

Finetto @ 125/1 with Bet365

Lutsenko @ 80/1 with PaddyPower

Martin @ 80/1 with Betfair

Not wrote anything above about him but also adding Claeys at 300/1 with Bet365. As the price he’s at appeals, brute of a rider and Cofidis will now be attacking without Bouhanni.

So it’s 1.5pt in total staked across them.

Obviously prices might be better elsewhere later so keep an eye out!

Thanks as always for reading and as usual any feedback/discussion is greatly appreciated. Do you think we’ll see a break make it or will it be another sprint? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.