Cycling is a sport where 180 guys ride their bikes for 5 hours and in the end, Valverde wins.
After they messed it up a bit yesterday, Movistar were going to make sure that wasn’t the case today and they rode the final climb of the stage to perfection. We had a flurry out attacks early on but by the time the riders reached the short descent three-quarters up only Quintana, Valverde and Bernal remained. The former acted as one of the best super domestiques in the peloton, setting a strong tempo so that no one could make it back from behind. Bernal attacked around the Flamme Rouge but he only managed to succeed in dropping Quintana and the outcome was inevitable. The Colombians rounded out the podium with Nairo finishing 6 seconds behind the duo; meaning that Valverde holds the GC lead by 19 seconds.
That should be the race wrapped up for him barring any misfortune. Will we see a team try something crazy tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.
The Route
A day that is focussed around three climbs but none of which should cause any major difficulties for the GC riders.
Given the slightly downhill start and the high chance that a break will make it all the way tomorrow it might not be until the opening climb that a breakaway manages to escape.
If so, expect some strong climbers to make the moves on the steeper early slopes. Things to get easier after the first 5km and it becomes more of a power climb from there. Once over the summit, a long 20km descent follows before some valley roads and another climb.
Col de Perves is the sharpest climb of the stage in terms of gradient and with it topping out at 60km to go we might see the breakaway reduced in size at this point. However, it is probably just too far for anyone to try an attack and go on their own so everything will come down to the last climb of the day.
Averaging 4.5% for 12.2km it is a fairly easy climb in terms of gradient and it only hits 8% as a maximum. Like many of the ascents the peloton has faced in Catalunya this week, the steepest gradients come near the bottom so that is where the stronger climbers will need to make their move. If they leave it too late then a more powerful rider should be able to cope with the less than 4% gradients.
Over the top the riders will have just under 14km of descent until they reach the finish line. It isn’t overly technical to begin with but as we approach our finish town, hairpin binds become more of a regularity.
So who will we see come home at the head of the race? Given Movistar and Valverde’s domination today and his prowess on the downhills, I can’t really see any GC action tomorrow. Instead the breakaway will have the chance to make it all the way to the finish. Looks like we’re playing everyone’s favourite game again…
The Breakaway Tickets
Like normal on a stage like this I’ll suggest a few riders who given they actually make the break, might have a chance.
Robert Power.
It was great to see him competing at a high level again during Strade after he’s had a series of setbacks that have hindered his first few years at pro level. One of the best climbers in his age group, he seems to be slowly realising his potential and he has done a lot of work for his team this week, drilling the pace on the climbs. Given that it’s unlikely Yates will try anything tomorrow, it would be nice to see Mitchelton allow Power some freedom.
Jhonatan Narvaez.
Was on the attack earlier today but his move was ultimately brought back. He then turned his attention to help Jungels and Mas, but still managed to finish strongly. The young Ecuador rider has already had a fairly successful start to his time in the pro peloton with good results in a variety of races. Clearly a capable climber, he’ll hope to be one of the best up ahead.
Floris De Tier.
After a strong start to the year, De Tier will be disappointed to find himself so far back here. He had a good showing in Strade and finished an excellent 5th on the steep cobbled finish in Andalucia. That result in Strade shows that he is more than just a good climber and cope fairly well with a difficult day in the saddle. Why not tomorrow?!
Sergei Chernetckii.
Astana have been fairly disappointing at this race so far with no real meaningful result yet. I imagine they’ll be very keen and active to get in the break tomorrow and Chernetckii is far enough down to be given some freedom by the GC teams. He’s a very hot or cold rider but his performances in the likes of Lombardia highlight he can cope with a profile such as tomorrow’s. He packs a reasonable sprint from a breakaway group too so no one will want to bring him to the line.
Prediction
Breakaway to stick and Rob to Power home…
Betting
0.25pt WIN on them all;
Narvaez @ 125/1
Chernetckii @ 200/1
Power @ 200/1
De Tier @ 300/1
Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see the break make it or will it turn into a surprising GC day? Anyway,
The race named after a motorway returns this Friday as my favourite week(ish) in cycling kicks off with E3 Harelbeke!
Last year’s edition of the race saw the big guns hit out early and a strong trio of Naesen, Gilbert and Van Avermaet managed to hold off a chasing group with the latter winning a sprint to the line.
Will we see something similar this year? Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.
The Route
A fairly benign opening half of the race before all hell breaks loose later in the day.
The riders will have to tackle 15 hillengen throughout the afternoon, but they will face a whopping 13 of them in the last 100km. As you can see on the profile, it is constantly up or down and offers the riders very little respite. A winning move can go at any time but the Kapelberg / Paterberg / Oude Kwaremont combinations is the likeliest of places where any big splits will be made.
Short but brutally steep, the Paterberg is 380m of cobbled hurt. The climb averages a leg-numbing 13.7% and even though the ascent won’t last long, big gaps can be made here if the strongest riders pretty much sprint up it.
Once over the top a fast descent on narrow roads follows with only a few kilometres of flat before they hit the Kwaremont.
The Oude Kwaremont is a lot shallower gradient wise (4.2%) compared to the Paterberg but it is the length of the cobbled climb that makes it tough, with 1500m of cobbles in the 2.2km climb.
From there it is only 36km to the finish and a group of strong riders can stay ahead of a chasing bunch.
Weather Watch
As is often the case in Belgium, the weather can play a massive part in the outcome of the race.
Tomorrow it looks as if the riders will have a stiff breeze that comes from the South throughout most of the day, with a scattered shower here or there. The wind is strong enough for some crosswinds in the exposed areas. More importantly for any would be attackers though, it means that it will be a cross-tail wind after the Tiegemberg with only a few kilometres of headwind as they turn back towards Harelbeke.
How will the race pan out?
E3 is a really weird one to judge as we have no real form guide over the past week or so as to who might be going well in this type of race. We should expect an attacking race and it is vital for a team to have several options going into the closing 60kms. Having multiple lead riders in the front group is important!
I think we’ll see some of the “lesser” riders try to light it up on the Taainberg; someone has to replace Boonen right? If enough teams are represented then it could feasibly make it all the way but the likelihood is that some of the “bigger” riders well then attack on the Paterberg/Kwaremont combo and make it across.
As to how it pans out from there, it beats me, but I have a suspicion we might see a solo rider escape from around a group of 6 or so and make it all the way to the line.
Two’s A Crowd (Contenders)
This is where I would normally hark on for ages about all the teams and the possible riders that might win but if I’m honest, I don’t have the time to do that just now. Which is kind of annoying as rambling at extreme lengths is something I enjoy, I mean, just look at how long it has taken me to make this small point…Instead, I’m just going to name two riders here who I think might have a chance. There are other previews that will go more in-depth with teams etc (I’ll be back to do that properly for the weekend) so check out the likes of @InsideThePeloton and @Cyclingmole for that.
Mads Pedersen.
Ever since he smashed it up the Muur for Stolting back when the Three Days of De Panne was actually over three days, I’ve had my eye on this talented Dane. Now into his second season at World Tour level he’ll be even stronger as a rider, especially after he completed his first Grand Tour last year. A brute of a rider, he won’t be afraid of the cobbles or the short power climbs that E3 has to offer. Stuyven will come into this race as leader for Trek and with Degenkolb possibly still recovering after his illness that saw him miss Milan Sanremo, I think Pedersen will be second in command. He’s shown hints of good form recently too after he finished a very respectable 4th place in the recent TT at Tirreno. Earlier in the year he took a win at the Herald Sun Tour in a reduced bunch gallop proving he has a good turn of pace too. He’s certainly a danger man!
Prediction
I don’t think Pedersen will win though, instead, we’ll see a win from the strongest team here; Quick Step. It won’t be Gilbert, Stybar or Terpstra but instead we will see Yves Lampaert come out on top at the end of the day.
I have the same feeling that I had before Dwars last year. There’s just something about the way he has been riding recently, working strongly for his team, patiently waiting for his own chance to shine. His performance on the final stage of Paris Nice was very impressive as he managed to finish in 13th place that day, ahead of the likes of Barguil and Henao and only 1’30 down on the winner. A rider similar to Pedersen, he possesses a strong engine so he could possibly solo to the line but he’s not a slouch in a sprint either. After his 2016 classics campaign was derailed by a rather innocuous accident involving his girlfriend and a shopping trolley, he returned to the fold last year. At the age of 26, he should now be developing into one of the best classics riders in the peloton and I think we’ll see him in full flight tomorrow.
I love Lamp-aert!
Betting
1pt EW Lampaert @ 50/1 (Would take 33/1 lowest)
0.25pt EW Pedersen @ 250/1 (Would take 125/1 lowest)
Thanks as always for reading! Once again, apologies this isn’t the usual length/in-depth ramblings but I don’t have the time today. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see an aggressive race? Anyway,
The Belgian breakaway expert attacked from the morning move on the final climb of the day and managed to hold off the chasing pack behind. A counter-attack from some GC riders was caught by the peloton just on the line but Simon Yates and Pinot sprinted from that group to podium places.
The result means that De Gendt is the new race leader as the race heads towards the mountains tomorrow.
The Route
We have the now traditional finish atop La Molina.
A stage that is very back-heavy with climbing, it becomes the new Queen stage in that sense after today’s re-routing.
The Coll de Creueta is a long, long climb and is the first HC test of the race. It really depends where you start the official categorisation but the road rises from the feed zone.
According to the profile above, the climb is 20.5km at 5.2% in length and it climbs all the way to 1925m of altitude. It’s actually quite an irregular climb with a kilometre at 9% followed by a kilometre at 3% for example. The steepest 3kms to come at the top and given there are just over 30kms to the finish from the summit, will it entice some attacks?
A long descent is briefly interrupted with a kilometre or so of climbing before the riders once again take the plunge down the valley and head towards the last challenge of the day.
The La Molina climb can be split into two parts; the longer first two-thirds before a short descent and kick up to the finish.
As a whole it averages 4.5% for 12.2kms but the opening 8.6km average a tougher sounding 6.5%. Nonetheless, it isn’t the most difficult climb when taken in isolation so if teams want to make it difficult for Valverde, then they’ll need to be aggressive on the penultimate climb of the day.
There will be a slight headwind for part of the penultimate climb but fortunately for us the viewers it will be mostly crosswind. Then once we get onto La Molina it will be a cross-tail wind which I’m hoping will make things more exciting!
How will the stage pan out?
It has to be raced aggressively, otherwise Valverde will probably win on La Molina or at the very least podium (gaining more bonus seconds) and he’ll more than likely do the same on Stages 5 and 7 if they make them GC days as well.
The unfortunate thing is that most teams don’t have several GC cards to play but more importantly, Movistar have three themselves!
If an attack does go on the penultimate climb, expect either Valverde, Quintana or Soler to follow. Ideally if you were on another team you would want Quintana as you might fancy your chances in a sprint against him, but then again, it does come after a lot of climbing and the Colombian did look sprightly today.
I think we’ll see an attack go on the penultimate climb and with a rider from each of the big teams (FDJ, Sky, Movistar and Mitchelton) then the move might just well stick. If only two of those teams are represented then I think it will be brought back on the footslopes of La Molina but otherwise it will stay the whole distance.
Team Options
Given how open the race still is, a lot of teams have quite a few guys who are still in contention for the overall.
Movistar: Valverde / Quintana / Soler
Mitchelton: Simon Yates / Haig
FDJ: Pinot / Gaudu / Reichenbach
Sky: Sergio Henao / Bernal
Astana: Bilbao / Hirt
QuickStep: Jungels / Mas
EF Education: Woods / Carthy
UAE: Aru / Martin
Then we have teams where there is only one guy who really will be able to challenge such as Kirby’s favourite buzzword at the moment “Latour”.
In hindsight, taking away Vallter today has made tomorrow a lot more interesting. Or at least in my head it is going to be interesting which inevitably means we’re going to get a dull day of racing where everyone waits for La Molina!
Prediction
An attack goes on the climb of Creueta that destroys the GC group leaving a group of 9 up ahead that includes all three Movistar riders. Once onto the descent and the footslopes of La Molina the gap continues to grow to those behind as the majority of the other teams have riders represented.
We see more constant attacks on La Molina as no one wants to tow Valverde to the sprint but every move is followed by a Movistar rider. Eventually the elastic snaps and we see Quintana, Gaudu, Woods and Valverde escape the group; they are kept on a fairly tight leash but those behind can never close it down fully.
Quintana buries himself in an effort to drive the group and help Valverde take the win but he is caught napping by a flying Canadian who shows that same explosive kick he had in the Vuelta last year, attacking early in the final 500m to take the win. Valverde nearly catches him on the line but it is too late, however, the bonus seconds are enough to see him move back into the GC lead!
Woods
Valverde
Gaudu
Heard it here first…
Betting
1pt EW Woods at 22/1 (Would take down to 14/1)
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see an exciting and explosive stage or will it all come down to La Molina? Anyway,
The 3-day race that is now a one-day race gets a women’s edition. De Panne arrives in the Women’s World Tour calendar for the first time and on paper it should give the sprinters a good chance at success.
Let’s have a look at what is exactly in store for them tomorrow.
The Route
A day by the coast awaits the riders along a pretty much pan-flat course.
It’s a shame that there is only one section of cobbles for the riders to tackle and given that they come pretty early, I can’t see them playing any major part in the outcome of the day.
At just over 15km long the final circuit takes in both the towns of De Panne and Koksijde along with some of the other surrounding areas.
There’s not much else of note about the route!
So a sprint finish then? Well…
Weather Watch
It just so happens that De Panne passes through one of my favourite areas in cycling; De Moeren. An area famed for flat land, open fields and strong winds. That can only mean one thing; echelons!
Of course though, that requires the wind to play ball and going by the forecast it certainly seems like it will tomorrow.
A strong and consistent wind throughout the day coming from the West, the riders will have to be alert on their way from Brugge to De Panne as the road constantly twists and turns. Being unattentive at the wrong moment could see you suddenly spat out the back as the race gets battered by a strong crosswind and you’re too far down the pack to deal with it.
Just before we reach the circuit for the first time, the riders will cycle through one of my favourite regions in cycling; De Moeren.
Almost 3km of dead-straight, wide-open Belgian farmland. Given the wind conditions it is not a case of if the race will split here, it is by how badly will it split? Some riders will see their chances of a good result on the day gone here.
Once onto the circuit the wind will come at the riders from different directions depending on where they are on the course and they do get some protection from buildings etc. However, there are still two locations that are fairly open that can cause splits in the wind.
The 1km section of Noordhoekstraat that heads South (which ends with roughly 6.8km to go) is one possible place. However, once they turn right and continue West they will face a strong headwind which might cause things to slow down. Nonetheless, if everyone is on their last reserves by then it will only be the strongest riders at the head of the race so chasing it down will be tough.
The second section is also 1km long (Langgeleedstraat) but more importantly, it ends with only 3kms of the day left and the riders will have almost another kilometre of tailwind to gather their breath afterwards.
Narrow and exposed roads can only mean one thing, right?
There will be a bit of a cross-head wind as they enter the final 2kms but by then I expect the damage to be done.
I’ll be shocked if we see a big bunch sprint tomorrow, I’m expecting 20 riders or less and to be honest, it will be closer to 10 I think. Which then means a late attack from a strong rider might stick too, it just depends on who is represented at the head of the race in the closing sections!
Contenders
As is always the case with women’s cycling, the organisers can’t seem to keep an up-to-date start list so I might miss some riders out here that actually are racing, or I might mention someone who isn’t here!
Amy Pieters.
Fresh off the back of a win in Ronde van Drenthe, she’ll arrive here as Boels’ leader for the race. As a Dutch rider, it goes without saying that she is strong in tricky conditions like this and she’ll hope to make any split that goes. A good sprinter after a tough day, many people will not want to take her to the line. Majerus will no doubt be in an attacking mood as well and she’s another to keep an eye on.
Gracie Elvin.
The Australian is maturing into one of the better classics riders in the peloton and she forms part of a strong Mitchelton Scott team at this event. In Ronde van Drenthe she worked tirelessly to try to set up her team-mates but also managed to spend some time attacking off the head of the bunch. With her form on the up, she will want a good result here. Mitchelton have the luxury of also having D’Hoore among their ranks who is also an incredible one-day Belgian racer, not to mention they’ll both have the help of Allen, Crooks, Williams and Spratt; a strong outfit! I’d be surprised not to see them featured at the pointy end tomorrow.
Floortje Mackaij.
Like Mitchelton, Sunweb have an embarrassment of riches here at this race and it’s hard to know who their leader might be and I imagine they’ll just play it as it comes tomorrow. Mackaij has had a strong start to the year finishing in the top 10 of her last four races, including a win in Westhoek. She’s a tenacious Dutch rider who is at home in bad conditions but she also packs a good sprint from a reduced group. Of course Sunweb also have Rivera who will be their go-to if she’s there in the finale and then they also have Brand and Van Dijk too. The latter normally goes very well in this type of race and she recently won Hageland solo; will we see something similar tomorrow?
Lotta Lepistö.
A name that would be at the front of this race more often or not, it is hard to know where her form is at the moment due to a DNF in Drenthe. She started the season off slowly in Setmana, only picking up a 2nd place on one of the stages. She could win it or could come 80th!
Janneke Ensing.
I have to include the winner of Le Samyn in this list! Ensing was super strong that day in some tough conditions and no doubt she will be looking forward to something similar tomorrow. Alé bring a fairly solid outfit and I would expect the likes of Hosking, Knetemann and Bastianelli to go deep into the race with the former obviously hoping to take a sprint victory after being so close so far this season.
Other names to conjure with include Cordon (Wiggle), Cromwell (Canyon), Andersen (Hitec), Koster (Waowdeals), De Jong (Experza).
Prediction
The race will be blown to bits, quite literally, in the wind tomorrow and there is no way that I can see the predicted bunch sprint that you would assume just if you had looked at the profile.
Mitchelton and Sunweb have the strongest teams here and they’ll hope to use numbers to their advantage and I would be surprised not to see them actively near the front. Given the windy conditions that are forecast, it will be very difficult to hold things together in the final laps of the circuit around De Panne.
It just screams Van Dijk solo attack/win to me!
Coverage
The latter part of the race will be shown on Belgian TV and on the Eurosport Player which is great news! You’ll able to follow on twitter via #UCIWWT and #Driedaagse before then.
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see a sprint in the end or will the weather wreak havoc over the peloton? Anyway,
Not as an explosive day as it could have been as the wind decided to not play ball. Instead, it was a long afternoon in the saddle for the riders as they headed towards Valls. A combination of Movistar and Mitchelton Scott pulling the front of the race on the final climb saw a fair amount of riders distance with only 90 or so guys heading to the sprint together.
For a while it looked as if blog pick McCarthy was going to take it but he was out of position with 600m to go and working to regain those lost positions eventually cost him when he opened up the sprint. Impey looked like he then had it but as night follows day, it was Valverde who took home the win!
The result puts him in the GC lead ahead of tomorrow’s stage so let’s have a look at what is in store for them.
The Route
Well, it was nice of the organisers to change the route at just after 6pm UK time. Bit annoying as I had the majority of this wrote for the original stage route but oh well, at least it is better than them cancelling/changing the stage in the morning.
So apologies if this preview is a bit more blunt than normal but I don’t really have the time to re-write everything in massive detail and at the time of writing now I’m going off of limited info.
The Cat-1 climb of Bracons is fairly tough, especially in the closing 5kms but it comes too far from the end of stage to be of any real impact.
Port de Collabos is pretty much just an extended version of what we had at the end of today’s stage with a manageable average gradient of 5.3%. However, it is the 7.3km in length that might see the end of more riders than today.
Once over the crest though the road continually rises though, although it is pretty much false flat, all the way to the finish line. There is a bit of confusion as to where the exact finish line is and I’m really struggling to see anything on a very grainy picture that is floating around on Twitter. I trust the judgement of Ricky and Raffele though from LasterketaBurua who say the following…
Which would then make the final 1.5km look something like this on the road…
700m at 6.6% to act as a launchpad before a very quick final kilometre and fast sprint to the finish.
Contenders.
Valverde.
Well, that’s that done…
In all seriousness though Movistar have the firepower to try to keep control of the race in the closing stages and we all know what Valverde is like on these types of finishes. However, there is a chance for other teams but they need to be bold and go early. If they can get rid of as many Movistar domestiques as possible on the Collabos climb then attacks have to fly over the remaining 13km to try and wear the strong Spanish outfit down even more. The unfortunate outcome with that situation is that Movistar can just counter it by sending Valverde/Quintana/Soler into any dangerous move that tries to go.
I’ll throw a few names into the hat here to look out for.
Visconti.
Was climbing well in Strade and he won’t be seen as a massive threat for the overall. He does pack a bit of a punch in a small finish so he might fancy his chances in a splinter group that forms at the head of the race.
Mühlberger.
McCarthy will hope to hold on for Bora but they do have another option in the shape of the strong Austrian. He’s raced sparingly so far this season but he has impressed on almost every occasion. An attacking rider, we might see the Austrian champions stripes at the head of the race in the finale.
Bilbao.
Why not make it two previews in a row that I mention the Astana rider?! The longer climb beforehand should see more of the fast men distanced and in theory that makes it easier for him in the sprint. Astana should have Chernetckii, Hirt and Bilbao at least in the front group so I can see them being aggressive in their tactics. I’ve stated numerous times before that the little Spaniard packs a good kick, time for him to deliver?
We could also see a breakaway make it all the way to the line but given the easier stage I think a few teams will fancy their chances in a sprint. Movistar will no doubt want to keep things close for Valverde to try to gain more bonus seconds.
Prediction
I really should say Valverde here but I think we’ll see some attacking racing on that plateau after the final categorised climb and a small group will escape as long as it features at least one Movistar and Mitchelton rider.
In the end we’ll see a surprise victory from Mühlberger!
Or Valverde wins as usual. That’s what is going to happen, isn’t it?
Betting
0.5pt EW on;
Muhlberger @ 125/1
Bilbao @ 66/1
Thanks as always for reading and once again apologies for the slightly shorter preview but I’m lacking the time to re-write everything fully. Who do you think will win? Anyway,
After missing a preview for today’s stage I’ll be back with daily blogs for the rest of the week, apologies!
Today’s Recap
Almost disappointingly we didn’t see anyone try a bold attack on the climb or the run in but they had no real chance to with Movistar setting a fierce tempo into the closing 2kms. From there Quick Step took over, absolutely drilling it at the front of the peloton to set up their man for the day and boy did Hodeg deliver. Once he was released by his lead-out man then no-one could live with him as he galloped home by about 4 bike lengths.
Not a bad few days for the Colombian as he quickly followed up his first pro win with the World-Tour level win today! Interestingly, he says his surname as “Hodge”; I wonder if it is too late to try to get him to ride for Scotland…
Behind, Bora rounded out the podium with Bennett coming second and McCarthy trailing in just behind. The former still looks to be finding some form as his first part of the season has been plagued with illness but his team-mate will certainly be happy with where he is and will fancy his chances tomorrow.
Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.
The Route
A rolling day with a reasonable amount of altitude gain, it is a stage that will be decided by the final climb.
The climb is long enough that it should be too tough for the proper sprinters, although we don’t really have many of them here. It will be interesting to see if any GC team decides to light it up and given what we saw today, I imagine Movistar will be keen to set a tempo on the slopes.
It’s a good climb to set a tempo on too as the gradients are very regular. With the gradients not being overly steep and the climb not being really long, then some of the punchier guys might fancy their chances at holding on. It all just depends on the approach of the GC teams.
However, anyone wanting to be in with a chance of winning the stage will need to be in the bunch once it crests with 10km to go as it is mainly downhill from there.
The descent will be fast but the riders should have plenty of room as to manoeuvre as it is on a main road. It is possible to pedal on the descent so I’m intrigued to see what gear ratios riders select for tomorrow.
There are a few roundabouts in the closing kilometres which could make things a bit dangerous if we get a bunch finish.
How will the stage pan out?
The climb of Lilla was last used back in 2016 on Stage 5 when we had the exact same closing 20kms as we do tomorrow. On that day there were already plenty of time gaps due to it being the 5th stage so everyone wanted to go into the break. In fact, it took until only 50km to go for it to form. Poels attacked from the move on the climb and managed to hold on, winning ahead of 4 of his break companions who fought it out for the minor podium places with the peloton coming in behind them.
The break does have a chance, as always, but I can’t see that happening. Movistar made their intentions pretty clear today with their show at the front of the peloton and I would expect them to set a fierce pace on the climb to try to distance that fast men. Consequently, the question is then how many riders will be left at the front? In 2016 it was a peloton of roughly 60 that were left. If the Spaniards go crazy tomorrow then I could see maybe a group of 30-40 riders together over the top. If they go really crazy then it might only be 20.
Co-operation in the lead group will then be a factor as to who continues to drive the pace on the descent or if a splinter group might squirrel off the front. The smaller the group of riders, the more likely people will successfully get away.
We saw what happened recently in Paris Nice when Sanchez, Hivert and Di Gregorio were able to get away after a fairly innocuous looking climb.
Contenders
Alejandro Valverde.
The Movistar man has to start as the big favourite for tomorrow’s stage. In fine form, as always, he’ll be drooling at the prospect of a reduced bunch sprint and some possible bonus seconds on the line. He got involved today and the majority of the guys who finished ahead of him won’t make it tomorrow. Movistar have a strong team to control proceedings but they might be leant on heavily by others.
Jay McCarthy.
Valverde’s big rival for the stage, he was an impressive 3rd today. Arguably as fast if not faster than El Bala on a finish like this he’ll have his whole team to support him. This is his first stage-race back in Europe after a good showing during the opening season events Down Under.
Daryl Impey.
Won a stage at this race last year, he’ll enjoy the thought of a reduced bunch gallop as he should be one of the faster guys left. He was on his own in the final today as the first port of call for him this race is to look after his GC leaders. If that’s the same tomorrow then he might struggle to find the right wheel but with a bit of luck he could take the win. If his form is similar to that when he was in Australia then others will be worried about him!
Those three are the favourites for the stage in my opinion and I would be surprised if one of them didn’t win. However, others might still get involved.
Matej Mohoric.
I’m a big fan of the former Junior/U-23 World Champion and it is good to see him get more responsibility and leadership roles at Bahrain this season, although he is more than happy to do his job for the team, i.e. helping Nibali at Sanremo. In today’s sprint he tried to lead-out Bonifazio but the Italian was somewhat blocked in, while Mohoric held on for 9th. Tomorrow should all be about Matej though as I can’t see Bonifazio making it over with the lead group. We might see a show from him on the descent or he might try his hand at a sprint but Bahrain will be near the front as Visconti also could deliver a strong result too.
Pello Bilbao.
Another rider I’m a fan of (there seems to be a recurring theme here), the Astana rider packs a good sprint from a small group. He was flying towards the end of last season and started the year off in good form with a strong result in Valenciana. He pulled out of Abu Dhabi though and this is his first race back since then so his form is a bit unknown. If they don’t go for him, Chernetckii could be Astana’s guy.
Arthur Vichot.
The former French Champion has been lightly raced this season so far with today’s stage only the 3rd race day he has completed therefore it is hard to tell if he will be competitive or not. On paper though, tomorrow’s stage looks ideally suited to his characteristics. He’s a classy rider and can’t be discounted full but I just think that there will be others who will be faster than him left at the end. Also, he only ever wins in France. Watch him change that tomorrow…
Prediction
Easy…
JayMcCarthy wins.
Valverde has met his match in reduced bunch sprint finishes! Movistar will need to set a crazy tempo on the climb to distance him and turn it into a fully fledged GC day if that happens.
Betting
2pts WIN on McCarthy @ 7/1. (would take down to 5/1).
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,
The women’s World Tour returns this weekend for its third and oldest event on the calendar; the Trofeo Binda. Last year’s edition of the race saw somewhat of a surprise result as a reasonably large group of 25 riders came to the line to contest the sprint finish. No one was able to match American pocket-rocket Coryn Rivera though as she took a dominant victory with a delighted Arlenis Sierra in second and CecilieLudwig rounding out the podium.
Will we see something similar this year or will the race revert back to type and be one for the attackers? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders on Sunday.
The Route
Exactly the same as last year!
It is a tough parcours though with the road going either up or down for the majority of the day; there’s no real respite for the riders.
The opening part of the day will act as a leg sapper but the main focus of the afternoon is to do with the circuit around Cittiglio itself.
You can view the finish circuit profile that I have made here.
As you can see, the circuit is dominated by two main climbs. The first of which is only 1km long but the Sciareda does average 6.4%.
Punchy enough in some sections for a stinging attack, the climb will more likely be used to wear down other riders in the peloton but it is possible for a strong group to form here and not be brought back. Especially if the majority of the big teams are present.
A short descent follows, the riders will then have a couple of kilometres of flat before the main climb on the circuit starts.
On the profile of the circuit above you can see an incredibly steep section before it flattens out. That’s just an issue with Strava and the road there isn’t that steep. It goes uphill, but not at that severity!
You can almost flatten out the sharpness of the gradient and extend the drag into the flatter green section, therefore I’m unsure as to how accurate the gradient at the top right of the image is. However, it is a lot more accurate for the second half of the climb and the double-digit gradients there are real and offer the better climbers a perfect launchpad. Expect to see a thinning out of the bunch on this climb over the laps.
Once over the crest there is still a reasonably long way to the finish but just over 5kms of it is made up of descent. However, the gradients are fairly shallow so the riders will still have to work.
The final 3km roll a little and the run to the finish line is slightly uphill so the timing of any sprint is very important.
Rain, rain and more rain around Cittiglio this weekend. In an interview on her team’s website Elisa Longo Borghini expects it to be exceptionally tough and conditions similar to her win back in 2013.
The wet roads will make the descents more treacherous and it will make the race even more attritional. Consequently, I definitely don’t think we’ll get a sprint like we had last year. Maybe a small group of 5 or 6 might arrive together but not 25!
Contenders
Megan Guarnier.
Can the American continue Boels’ unbeaten start to the season? She’s only raced at Strade so far, finishing quite a bit behind the favourites but with it being such a tough race, it is hard to tell where her form is at. Having finished 2nd here before, this is a parcours that should theoretically suit her. 2017 wasn’t a great year compared to her vintage 2016 but given that Deignan will not be racing in 2018, the pressure will be on Guarnier to try to rekindle that form. If not her, then World Champion Chantal Blaak might have a chance. She excelled in the bad weather in Strade finishing a very good 4th place. If the pace isn’t too electric then she might be able to hold onto the better climbers and either wait in for the sprint or launch an attack in the finale.
Katarzyna Niewiadoma.
She only managed second in Strade after having the heavy expectations of this blog on her shoulders. An exceptionally talented rider, it is hard not to imagine her near the front come Sunday. Canyon SRAM arrive with a strong team here to support her that includes Cecchini and Ferrand-Prevot. The former might not be up there with the best climbers in the peloton but she is not too far away in one-day races like this where the longest ascent is under 3kms. PFP is just back after taking a second place in the Mountain Bike World Cup in South Africa; a race she could have won if not for a mechanical. Her form is clearly better than in Strade where after the race she said she felt a bit ill and empty. The question mark with her though is how will the travelling affect the racing? If she’s fit and not jet-lagged then Canyon have a great chance of winning given the number of riders they have who could feasibly contend; even Hannah Barnes might fancy her chances.
Ashleigh Moolman.
Involved in the main chase group in Strade until a crash saw her drop out of contention for a high placing, she’ll be hoping to go better here. Her early season form is good and on paper she really should be one of the riders going for victory here. One of the big advantages that she has over some of her competitors is that she has a good sprint from a reduced group. Expect to see her and Cecilie Ludwig alternate attacks.
Amanda Spratt.
The Mitchelton Scott rider had a good hit-out in Strade but she was just unable to follow the best. The Aussie team’s European base is nearby so they will know this area well and should be very attentive on what are almost local roads. The length of the climbs are good for Spratt as they aren’t as punchy but they’re more gradual in nature. One thing that I admire about her are her bike handling skills and she won’t be afraid to go on the attack on the descent, I’m just still not 100% confident in her ability to follow the best on the slopes. However, her team-mate Lucy Kennedy might be able to do just that. In Strade she managed to finish in 5th place (ahead of Spratt) after doing the majority of the work in the chasing group. In fact, she could have finished 4th had she read the preview and known to take the inside line around the last corner; although to be fair she looked dead on her cleats as she crossed the line. Longer climbs here should suit and I’m hoping for another surprising result.
Elisa LongoBorghini.
A mechanical at the worst possible moment ruined ELB’s chances of going for back-to-back Strade wins. I think she went into the red trying to desperately chase back van der Breggen which then ultimately cost her a second place on the climb to Siena. A rider that is fairly local to the region, she will arguably know the roads better than most here which will be a big advantage in the testing conditions forecast. One of the best climbers in the women’s peloton, it would be a surprise to see her dropped when the road is going up. The question will be if she arrives alone or in a group with others. Given her sprint, she probably needs to solo home. After a horrid Strade for Audrey Cordon-Ragot which saw a crash derail her chances at a good personal result or to be there to help ELB, she arrives at this race in good shape according to her team mates. A rider that I admire a lot, she has plugged away as a super domestique for a while but she seems to be getting more freedom as a leader this season. She packs a deceptive sprint and could be quite dangerous in a group of 6 or so.
Coryn Rivera.
It would be hard to dismiss the current champion but can she make it two in a row? With no Van Dijk her squad is missing a massive engine so the rest of the team will have to step up to protect her. She’s a good climber who packs a solid sprint but with the more attritional race I’m expecting this season, I just can’t see her managing to repeat the feat.
Others to look out for include; Ensing (Ale), Rowe (Waowdeals), Sierra (Astana), Gillow (FDJ) and González (Movistar).
Prediction
An attritional race with a much reduced bunch due to the rain. Expect to see team’s use their second options to attack and force other squads to chase; we might even get a move like that stick.
However, I think it will be brought back going into the final lap and Elisa Longo Borghini will ride away from everyone on the climb and solo to victory. She looked good in Strade and will want to make up for the “what if?”.
The Italian tricolore needs to win an Italian race, right?!
Coverage
Good news as this year it looks as if we’ll get some coverage of the race live on Eurosport, although it looks as if it will only be the Player. Hopefully the transmission of pictures will be more consistent than last year! I’m not sure if there will be comms for the race though so we might have a similar raw-feed like we did at Strade. Some suggested then that I could Periscope the race and try my hand at commentary which I could do if more people will interested? Although I am visiting old uni pals on Saturday and intend on going out so I might not be back home in time for the racing. If I am, it certainly could make it more interesting!
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win on Sunday? Will we see an attritional race or will it come down to a select bunch sprint? If you would be so kind as to RT this blog then I’ll be forever grateful. Anyway,
La Classicissima di Primavera is already upon us and to me certainly, the first few months of the season have flown by. Milano Sanremo marks the start of Spring well almost, as the Spring Equinox is technically on Tuesday, but we’ll just ignore that for now!
The 2017 edition of the race saw an attack on the Poggio actually stick for the first time in a while, when Sagan made his move 500m from the summit. Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe attempted to bridge straight away but it wasn’t easy, with the Frenchman latching on before the Pole made it a trio not long after. As expected, they let Sagan do the majority of the work; taking turns here and there. Despite the chase from behind the trio had enough of a buffer to sprint for the win which resulted in one of the more famous finish line photos in recent years.
Although technically it is from after the line but anyhow…
Kwiatkowski just edged Sagan, with Alaphilippe finishing a wheel length down in third. Will we see the same protagonists this year? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.
The Route
Same as always, innit.
A route for the purists, MSR is certainly not a race I would show to someone who was new to cycling! The day is really about two climbs and even then, it is more or less about one.
First up though, is the Cipressa.
At 5.6km in length and with an average gradient of 4.1% it is enough to put some of the sprinters into difficulty if they’re on a bad day. For that to happen though, a team needs to come to the front and really drive the pace on. We might even see a few attacks here but it is unlikely they will survive.
Afer a descent, the flat roads continue until the Poggio.
Cresting with just under 6kms to go it is a very tempting launchpad for attacks as we saw last year. Taken in isolation the climb itself isn’t very tough but considering they start it after almost 280km then fatigue does play a part. A power climb, the sprinters will hope to hold onto the back of the bunch as they fly up it.
A dangerous and fast descent follows before the final 2kms flatten out and we get the famous finish along the via Roma.
Weather Watch
It looks set to be a mixed bag on Saturday with showers expected throughout the day and along the route.
However, the forecast at the moment does appear to be much kinder for Sanremo itself, although that sudden jump in the wind is certainly interesting.
Some showers throughout the day in theory both aid a late attack sticking and don’t at the same time. It could be argued that a lot of the riders will be more tired and maybe won’t have the legs in the closing kilometres to chase and the more traditional classics riders will benefit from this. However, things could stick together more as the sting will be taken out of the attack. Go figure!
Bunch sprint or not?
The perennial question for this race and we’ll only find out at the very end of the day.
The above graph is from Inrng and highlights how far out any winning move was launched. Some of the editions had smaller bunches sprint it out, including in the torrential edition of 2013 when a group escaped on the descent of the Poggio.
Last year was a bit of an anomaly given the rise of the “classics sprinter” which has meant there are plenty of fast men left to compete in a sprint. The Poggio itself is easy for a lot of the modern sprinters as more of them are able to manage climbs such as it compared to the past. They can cope with a fairly increased pace.
However, as we saw last year the elastic can snap with a stinging attack. It then becomes a question of who wants to chase and how quickly they organise vs the workload up ahead.
Some teams arrive with options for both outcomes while others are solely focussed around their leader.
What will Sagan do?
A lot of what happens in the finale on Saturday will be based around what the current World Champion does; he desperately wants this monument on his palmares. The one who sparked the winning move last year will he attack again this year? In Tirreno he was very strong in the sprints but he was somewhat disappointing on the longer, more traditional classics stages. There is a chance that if he goes on the attack then he will get worked over like he did last year.
Given his form in the sprints and stamina, I actually think he should wait for the gallop to the line.
If he does that, then it throws up yet another conundrum as it both increases any attackers chances but also might hinder them.
In theory any escapees will be more willing to work together as they don’t have Sagan to worry about in a sprint. Yet, if Sagan stays in the peloton then it means his Bora team will be chasing which will be another team chasing them down.
I favour sprint 80% : late attack 20%.
Sprinters
Even though plenty have dropped out due to illness we still have a quality field here as you would expect. I’m not going to bore you by going into great detail about them all though, as I’m sure you’ll read plenty of previews for this weekend and nobody has any time to read the same stuff 10 times!
Arnaud Démare.
The winner of the 2016 edition has started his season well, with strong showings in Omloop and Kuurne before taking a stage win in Paris Nice. He left that race early to prepare for here which could be a good move given how sick everyone else seemed to get. He should feature in any sprint we get.
Andre Greipel.
It’s great to see the Gorilla back near his best performances this season after 2017 was a struggle due to family issues. He’s back racing with a smile on his face! With two World Tour wins to his name so far this season, he’s also done his fair share of work for his team-mates. Something that he hope will be repaid here and Lotto Soudal bring a squad with them that is geared towards setting up a sprint. Greipel hasn’t been great in the past but that might change this year.
Marcel Kittel.
Can he make it over the Poggio? Hmmm, I don’t think so.
Sonny Colbrelli.
The Italian will want a hard race and he comes here as Bahrain’s sprinter. He pulled out of Tirreno due to illness so it will be interesting to see if he has recovered. Could pull off a shock in the right circumstance.
Alexander Kristoff.
The winner of a wet edition back in 2014, he’s had a solid start to his season. He was ill during Paris Nice and dropped out on the 7th stage but is apparently feeling a bit better now. He has a strong team with him including Swift and Ulissi, but will they stick to team orders and work for him? If it does come down to a sprint, a fully fit Kristoff would be a favourite but the question marks still loom over his health.
Elia Viviani
Flying this year, he will be QuickStep’s sprint option if Alaphilippe’s inevitable attack gets brought back. With a strong team around him, he should get a good lead-out which will help a lot. Can he continue his great season?
MichaelMatthews.
Constantly near the front in this race, he’s only managed one race day so far this season, and he didn’t even complete that. Nonetheless, he is a rider that always seems to come out of the blocks firing, just look at his first few race results in the past seasons, so he can’t be discounted completely. He’s probably just not fast enough to win on a flat finish unless he comes in with some attackers. Maybe Sunweb will look to Theuns.
Caleb Ewan.
A commendable 10th place in his first race here last season he’ll hope to go better this time around. He’s another that has pulled out of their recent stage race so who knows how he’ll go here. Mitchelton do have the back up of a very strong Matteo Trentin.
Magnus Cort.
Started this year as a rank outsider for this race but his performances in the early part of the season have brought him much closer to the favourites. I’d argue that he is now one of the best climbing sprinters in the peloton and he’ll be hoping for a fierce pace on the Poggio. If that is the case and things do come back for a gallop, against some tired fast-man he has every chance of taking a good result.
Modolo, Boasson Hagen and Stuyven could all get up to fight for a good result too.
Late Attackers
There is a chance someone or a group of riders escapes in the finale. No doubt you’ll hear a lot about last year’s protagonists but I’ll suggest another two to maybe keep an eye on.
Alexey Lutsenko.
Can you remember back to last year’s preview when I mentioned Lutsenko as a potential outsider? Well, he’s had a pretty phenomenal 12 months since then and it is good to see him take the step up to match his undoubted talent levels. A rather unbelievable GC win in Oman earlier in the year was followed up with a great team role in Omloop, helping Valgren to win the race. He’s been a little bit quiet since then but I expect Astana to be in an attacking mood on Saturday. They’ll save Cort for the sprint with Sanchez and Lutsenko as the likely protagonists. A brute of a rider, he could come over the top of a group of escapees and hold onto the line. He’s not good a bad turn of speed either and he is one to watch!
Matej Mohoric.
Another rider who had a bit of breakout year in 2017, I expect him to step up another level this season. He has bags upon bags of quality; he is a back-to-back Junior and U-23 World Champion after all. It seems as if he has been in the pro peloton for a while (this is his 5th season at the top-level) but he’s remarkably only 23 years old. Having already competed in 4 Grand Tours, it is scary to think what he can do in a few seasons. One-day races are his forte and he recently won the GP Industria after a crazy attack on the descent. Could we something similar on Saturday?
Prediction
I think it will all come back for a sprint with AndreGreipel victorious.
His performances this year have really impressed me, even in the stages that he hasn’t won. Climbing better than ever, I think he’ll tough it out and stay in contact with the bunch over the top of the Poggio. Lotto Soudal are built with a team focussed around him, suggesting they are equally confident in his abilities to go well. Looking ahead at the weather conditions we might have a headwind sprint along the via Roma; who can remember my “fact that might not be a fact” from earlier in the year?
Betting
I have some antepost bets on Viviani at 33/1 and Cort at 100/1 but I don’t think I could advise their prices just now.
1pt EW Greipel at 50/1.
He was that price earlier in the week when I pointed him out on Twitter but it has since shortened. He’s 33/1 in some places but I would take the 20/1 available with most. No lower though.
1pt EW Lutsenko at 100/1.
Again, another that I pointed out on Twitter. He’s now into 66/1 with others that I would take.
0.5pt WIN Mohoric at 100/1 (with Bet365)
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win? Will we see a sprint or will a late attack prosper? Anyway,
Midweek Belgian cobbled racing is back tomorrow with the return of the Nokere Koerse. Last year saw Nacer Bouhanni take the uphill sprint win in dominant fashion, beating Blythe and Stallaert.
He’s not here to defend his title though so we could well see a new winner but let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.
The Route
After having reduced bunch sprints in the majority of recent editions, the organisers have decided to change-up the route a little.
We still have the same little kick up the Nokereberg to finish but the circuit that they used to do at the end now makes up the middle part of the race. Instead we have two longer final laps that make the race even more “cobbled” than before; meaning there are a total of 22 cobbled stretches throughout the race!
I’ve made a profile of that circuit that you can view here.
Within the final 10kms of racing the riders will face 2900m of cobbles. The first of those is the cobbled climb of Lange Astrstraat which averages 5.6% for 480m. Possibly a place for those with a bit of a kick to launch an attack.
Only a few kilometres down the line and they’ll face the longest stretch on the course; the 1.8km long Huisepontweg.
There’s no pavement for riders to hide on here and with the pace being pushed on at the front, I expect gaps to be made. Furthermore, not long after that section another smaller one follows as they once again head off of the main road onto these narrow cobbled farm tracks.
The Kouterstraat is only short at 300m but the cobbles look the gnarliest that the peloton will face all day and with only 4.4km remaining once they have traversed the section it will be a fight for anyone to try to organise a chase.
We then of course finish with the slight rise up the Nokereberg (5.7% for 350m) to finish.
It looks set to be a dry day which will please many and there is only a fairly light wind of 20km/h but we could get some stronger gusts.
It’s unlikely to cause any echelons but you never know with Belgian racing. Teams certainly like to be aggressive!
How will the race pan out?
Putting this out there now, I don’t think we’ll see a reduced bunch sprint.
The change of route with the amount of cobbles in the closing kilometres will make it a lot more selective. We might get a very small sprint of 8 or so but I can’t see a group of many more arriving together. There are numerous points to attack in the closing 10km and not a lot of straight wide roads for a chase to get organised. In fact, the chase can really only get organised in the final 4km and it will be a tough ask to bring a motivated attack back by then.
So the following riders will be contenders based on the above assumption!
Contenders
I’m not going to make this list too exhaustive, plenty of riders could win in the right situation and circumstances so with that said 4 riders to look out for are…
Remi Cavagna.
If a late attack sticks, a Quick Step rider will need to be represented. They don’t have any of their big stars but they still bring a very strong squad for this type of race. Cavagna recently won the Dwars door West-Vlaanderen after he was part of a successful 3-rider breakaway that held off the peloton. He’s clearly in form at the moment and is a rider that should suit these one-day Belgian races. A good time trial rider, he packs the power to get away and hold the gap. Can he go back-to-back?
Loic Vliegen.
BMC bring an attacking squad with them to this race and I expect to see them active at the head of the race throughout the day. Vliegen is another like Cavagna who is a talented youngster and I think he’ll step up another level this season with this now being his third year in the senior peloton. Plus, he completed his first Grand Tour last year which always gives a rider a boost. He has the pedigree in this field to compete on courses like this and I’m sure he’ll stick his nose in the wind at some point.
Mads Wurtz Schmidt.
Possibly not the first rider to spring to mind but the Dane seems well suited to one-day cobbled racing. He’s a strong guy with a fairly solid sprint so he could mix it in a small sprint. 2017 was a bit of a tough introduction to World Tour racing for him but he did manage a few good results in .1 races (Besseges and Kolm). Like BMC, Katusha bring an attacking squad and I don’t think they’ll settle for a sprint.
Alex Kirsch.
The only Pro-Conti rider to make my very, very short-list, he was disappointed to only finish 6th in Le Samyn. Nonetheless, coming 2nd then 6th in the last two editions of that race highlight the quality of rider that he is. I think he is sometimes too eager to go on the attack but if he bides his time tomorrow then he has a chance. That will increase even more if some of the WT riders underestimate him!
Prediction
We’ll get a fierce pace on the final circuit that will ensure we don’t have the favoured (by the bookmakers anyway) sprinters competing for the win.
Instead, a late attack by Loic Vliegen will see the BMC rider secure a great win. He’s a bit of an all-rounder which perfectly suits the closing 10 kilometres.
Betting
We have prices here in the UK with SkyBet but Bingoal also have odds up for the Belgians. I imagine Kirolbet will follow soon. The following prices are for SkyBet though…
Given the fairly open nature of the race, I’m happy to spread quite a few points across my 4 named riders above so 0.5pt EW on them all;
Cavagna @ 28/1
Vliegen @ 75/1
Kirsch @ 75/1
Wurtz Schmidt @ 200/1
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will it end in a sprint or will the attackers get their chance? Anyway,
Despite the best intentions of Astana to try to make the stage more difficult in the early part of the day, the race settled in to the normal routine on a sprint stage with a small breakaway up the road. As expected, things were brought back in the closing 20kms and it looked as if we were heading for a full bunch sprint; that was until Gaviria fell with roughly 8km left, taking out a good percentage of the peloton.
Ahead QuickStep switched to Plan B and looked to set up Richeze for the sprint, leading him out perfectly in the closing kilometre. However, it was glaringly obvious that the Argentinian didn’t have the legs/speed to match the best with Kittel and Sagan both coming over the top of him. The German made it two wins from two sprints at this race, beating Sagan by a wheel. Richeze did well enough to hold on for third at least!
Maybe Kittel was right to come to this race all along then?!
No one at the top of the order lost time on GC today but the crash did see Bardet and Pozzovivo drop down two places. With the TT tomorrow it will be almost impossible for them to regain any of that time. Let’s have a look at what is in store.
The Route
This will be quick…
A pan-flat almost out and back TT that suits the power riders in the peloton. It is the exact same course that we had last year so a lot of the guys here should know it well. I’m sure they’ll be able to take their data and experiences from 2017 and hopefully perform better because of it.
Well, that’s the route covered. I told you it would be quick!
Contenders
Rohan Dennis.
The obvious favourite; he is incredible at short TT efforts but this type of distance is short enough that he can possibly be beat. Something along the line of 15kms is perfect for him. He’ll probably still win though, but his performances on the road stages so far have been disappointing and they’re a shadow of how well he done here GC wise last season. Is he ill? We’ll find out tomorrow I guess.
Jos Van Emden.
So close to the win last year, he finished only 3 seconds behind Dennis. He’s another who is exceptional over these short distance TTs. No doubt he will have been targeting this stage since the start of the race so will have been saving any energy he could. I would not be surprised if he won but Jumbo’s TTT performance was disappointing and that is putting me off of him.
Geraint Thomas.
Smashed the TT in the Algarve, the shorter distance here shouldn’t be a bad thing for the former track star. He’s had a stinker of a race due to bad luck when he look set to win the thing overall. Sky has a cracking TT bike and set up; they’ve been very strong in the discipline at every race so far this year. I expect that to continue tomorrow, but will it be enough for a stage victory? Castroviejo, Froome, Kwiatkowski, Kiryienka and Moscon could all feasibly post good times too! It’s just picking who will do the best.
Primoz Roglic.
Another who has had a pretty poor luck at this race which derailed his GC ambitions early on but at least he still managed to get a stage win. There is a chance that he could double up tomorrow as his form does seem to be good and the Slovenian is capable of putting out a lot of power for a short period of time. He’s one to watch with interest.
Stefan Küng.
The King has started his season well with strong showings in the Algarve but also a good top 20 in Strade. He’s really developing into a great rider who can TT but manage results on other terrain. I expect 2018 to be another big year in his development and we should see some great results. If Dennis is struggling, then Kung will be more than ready to step up and take the mantle for BMC.
Tony Martin.
I can’t not mention the former World Champion but he’s very hit or miss in TTs these days. He still seems a bit undercooked to me in terms of his form so unfortunately I think it will be a miss again tomorrow.
Daryl Impey.
I’m throwing him in as a wildcard pick for tomorrow. Mitchelton were great in the TTT with Impey, Hepburn and Durbridge all finishing with Yates. While the Brit is not a bad TT rider, the other trio will have been putting out some serious wattage on the course. All of them could go well tomorrow but after his terrific start I think Impey will honour his national champions jersey with a good performance. Like others on this list, he can churn out a lot of power for a short period of time so he has a good chance of causing a shock. Does he still have that Tour Down Under form?
Prediction
A BMC rider will win the stage but it won’t be Dennis, instead it will be King Küng who is victorious!
I’m a big fan of the young Swiss rider and I think he has the ability to pull off a great result tomorrow; he’s started this season off well and it will only get better.
Betting
2pst EW Kung @ 14/1 (Would take 8/1)
0.25pt EW Impey @ 250/1 (Would take 100 lowest)
0.25pt EW Durbridge @ 250/1 (Would take 100)
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see any big GC shake-ups? Anyway,
MyTwoSpokesWorth 