Month: May 2018

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 11 Preview: Assisi -> Osimo

Today’s Stage

Easy breakaway stage they said and I guess it was as a two-man group stayed away until the end. That is if you ignore everything else that happened throughout the stage.

All hell broke loose on the opening climb after Chaves popped and we saw the other GC teams come to the front to drive home the advantage. Long story short, that is the Colombian’s GC tilt over for the year and today can be summed up with the classic “It’s the Giro”.

Eventually we saw some attacks in the finale and it was Mohoric who got away with Denz after they managed to drop Villella on the final few rises. In the two-up sprint the Bahrain rider took it up early and it looked as if Denz was going to come round him but the German just didn’t have enough to do so.

DdP7WF9XkAI3fq6

Bennett “won” the bunch sprint behind to round out the podium.

Will we see another crazy day tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A fairly easy day out in the saddle but one that packs a sting in the tail.

T12_Imola_alt

There are two Cat-3 climbs for the riders to contend with on the route but it is the rolling finish that will be where the stage is decided.

First up is the uncategorised climb of Filottrano, which just happens to be the spot of the second intermediate sprint of the day.

Filot.png

With an average of 8.7% for 1.6km, it is a very short but tough kicker, especially when there are several hundred metre segments that average above 10%. The climb crests with just under 30kms to go and slowly heads downhill for the next 10km.

It is the closing 13km once we approach the finish town of Osimo that things will really get interesting.

Final13km

You can view the profile here.

The first climb you see on the profile above averages 7.9% for 1.2km and it precedes roughly 6kms of rolling road which will make it very difficult to control for any team who wants to set up a frantic finale in the last 5km. Speaking of which, they look perfect for opportunists.

download (4)

The opening climb is 1.1km at 7.6% and even features a section of pave, which just happens to be on the steepest section.

Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 16.29.05

A pretty sketchy descent follows before the final 2km which are predominantly uphill, averaging just over 6%.

This is a finish that will excite a lot of riders.

Looking at the forecast though and the predicted rain showers throughout the day, it will make this a very nervous finish because of the narrow and twisty town roads. There is potential for some GC riders to lose time.

Break or No Break?

A recurring theme throughout the Giro so far which I’ve got wrong pretty much every time. Although to be fair, Bouwman was caught with 1km to go and Masnada at 3km so it’s not as if they’ve been miles away and with teams acting differently they could have stayed away. Today was actually the first “breakaway” win we’ve had this Giro but you could almost class it as a late attack. However, with the winning move technically going at over 30kms from home, I’ll call it a breakaway just so my hat stays intact!

After today’s tough stage will some in the peloton want an easier day tomorrow and be happy to let the break go? Possibly.

It is one of those stages where a lot of guys will fancy their chances, including our current GC leader, but will they commit to a day of chasing for the stage? Possibly.

The way this Giro has gone so far I don’t think I can commit fully to either but I give the break he edge, just 60:40.

The Astana Factor

Tomorrow’s stage is in part a memorial to Scarponi as they pass Filottrana which was where he resided. I would expect Astana to have a big say in the outcome of the stage and they will no doubt either be involvedi n the break of the day, or work hard to pull it back to set someone up.

If we see them get into the break expect it to be Lutsenko, Sanchez or Villella who represent them, with Sanchez (again) or Bilbao the likely candidates for the finish. Although Lopez also might fancy his chances.

I think they’ll go with Lutesnko though. He’s been very quiet so far this race which is fair enough considering this is his first event back after injury. He should be up to race speed by now and I think he’s just been bluffing somewhat and saving himself for a big dig some day soon. We saw at the Vuelta last year just how strong he can be. Can he repeat the feat?

The Groundhog Picks

I could name many riders again who might feature but I’ll just keep my rotation small and go with two guys I’ve previously mentioned. This might be quite short then!

Giulio Ciccone.

DdGP6ZeXcAA1xvk

He’s been very lively so far and was off the front in the doomed morning break before attacking for KOM points late on. Clearly on good form, the sprightly and punchy rider should enjoy the climb to the finish. Can he take his second Grand Tour win?

Fausto Masnada.

The second rider to make my selection for the second day in a row, Masnada was the Androni rider we saw attack off the front of the peloton later on in today’s stage before Vendrame countered. Again, with him being the last of the break to survive on stage 9 then he is clearly in good form. If he manages to sneak away and take the win then he’ll secure Androni’s first win at the Giro since 2012.

The Wongshot.

Given the bad luck with picks the past couple of days, I thought it would be a good time to bring the Wongshot out for the second time this race. The magic oracle (i.e. random.org) has spoken…

Marco Marcato.

Tour de France 2017

The UAE rider is possibly a bit past his prime and is nowhere near the same rider that he was at Vacansoleil but he isn’t the worst candidate for a stage like this from an average looking break. Formerly a very strong one-day racer who can go well on short climbs, take his good results in the Tour of Denmark or GP Marseillaise for example. As a whole his team have been pretty disappointing this race but they have some cards to play and while Marcato is further down the pecking order than Conti or Ulissi, that might just work to his advantage. He’ll launch an audacious attack in the final 15km and while everyone looks at each other to chase his gap will grow to an insurmountable amount.

Prediction

I’ll go break and I’ll go Masnada.

DdGbw5oX0AEnjbZ

Betting

1pt WIN Ciccone @ 50/1

1pt WIN Lutsenko @ 66/1

0.5pt WIN Masnada @ 125/1

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Advertisement

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 10 Preview: Penne -> Gualdo Tadino

Rest Day Recap

On stage 9 we once again so the break caught close to the finish, although this time it was at 3km to go for Masnada who saw his hopes of a dream stage win dashed. It’s a shame as he was certainly the strongest in the move, he’ll get some more chances throughout this race though…

The GC battle therefore turned into a fight for the stage too. We saw a few digs from the riders, namely Ciccone who found himself off the front on two occasions after he decided to chill in the peloton with the big guys all day. Froome was dropped and sensing blood Pozzovivo lit it up at the front of the group, almost sprinting the final 500m. He distanced everyone aside from Yates, Pinot and Chaves who came round him, finishing in that order.

5568

The result means that the Mitchelton rider strengthens his GC lead: he’s currently 32 seconds ahead of team-mate Chaves, with Dumoulin a further 6 seconds behind in third. With plenty of racing still to go, it will be interesting to see how long he can hold the Maglia Rosa and what approach Mitchelton take.

Tomorrow’s stage should be a quiet one for them, but you never know who is going to go well after a rest day or not. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A tough day out in the saddle with roughly 4000m of climbing which also happens to be this year’s longest stage at 239km.

stage-10-profile

No doubt we’ll see plenty of pictures circulating around Twitter in the morning of guys warming up on the rollers beforehand as the toughest test of the day comes from the gun. There is a little climb followed by a quick drop down before the Cat-2 climb of Fonte della Creta begins at just 5.6km into the day.

stage-10-fonte-della-creta

The climb averages just under 6% for 15.7km and will certainly be a rude awakening for some. Expect a fierce pace as a strong group tries to form the break of the day.

Once over the top though, that is the only major climb out-of-the-way for the stage. However, the climbing doesn’t stop and we have a parcours that is very similar to stage 4 where the road is just up or down. The Cat-4 climb of Annifo crests with 30kms still remaining but I’m not sure the 1km at 7% will scare anyone. It could be a nice place to launch an attack though.

The final 18km could see a very tactical battle as riders try to escape while others will want to hold it together.

GiroS10

It looks flat on the official profile and while there may not be many hills to speak of, the short kickers will thin the bunch out if the pace is high.

stage-10-finish-detail

Considering the pretty technical final 1.5km, it appears the organisers do not think this will be a sprint finish. Speaking of which…

How will the stage pan out?

A battle between the break and the sprinters teams.

Given the tough climb at the start of the day we should see a group of strong guys make up the escape but with it being the aforementioned climb that a break most likely forms on, they aren’t exactly going to be the best baroudeurs for the remaining 200km. Luckily for them, there are plenty of small rises throughout the day where they can continue to put the hurt on.

Will we see the sprint squads want to set tempo all afternoon to try to bring it back?

No, is the simple answer!

I am ready and prepared to eat my hat but tomorrow is 100% a breakaway day. I’m intrigued to see how things play out in the final 30km with the “flatter” terrain. It will certainly help if your team has a couple of riders in the move and consequently I think we could see a group of 22 or something similar escape in the end.

Time to play everyone’s favourite game again, although if you follow me on Twitter, the next bit has already been spoiled for you!

TheBreakawayLottery

David De La Cruz.

Sky have been abysmal this race so far and with Froome very much sub-par at the moment I think they might try their hand at going for stages. The only issue with this idea is that they’ve only ever took this approach at the Giro once their leader has left the race, so with Froome still here, will they stubbornly stick to Plan A? Tomorrow is the acid test and I think De La Cruz offers them a good stage hunting option. He’s strong enough to make the break on the climb but he’s also fairly handy on the flat too. We’ve seen in Paris Nice that he has a good kick on him against climbers so he might not mind bringing it down to a very reduced sprint.

Fausto Masnada.

DdGbw5oX0AEnjbZ

A performance on stage 9 that won many hearts, Masnada is the gutsy type of rider who will go for it again at some point. We saw how strong he was the other day, dropping a lot of good break companions who had no match for his stinging acceleration and hard pace. I’m pretty sure Androni have made the break every day so far and I will be incredibly surprised not to see them in the move again tomorrow, in fact, we’ll probably see a couple of them there. If Masnada replicates the same performance then he will be a tough character to beat if he times his attack correctly!

Tanel Kangert.

Astana went all in on stage 9 for a Lopez victory but he fell short in the end. With that, I think we’ll see a few of their strong domestiques let of the leash tomorrow and the stage looks perfect for the likes of Sanchez and Kangert. Both are more than competent on the climbs and they can hold their own in the closing 30kms. Having the two of those guys there will make the rest of the break easy as they can launch vicious 1-2s until the move sticks. Kangert is slowly finding his form again after 2017 was ruled out due to injury. Can he rekindle that spark he had in 2016?

Krists Neilands.

2017-08-01_ds

The rider who sparked Nibali’s Milano Sanremo raid, Neilands is a talented Latvian climber, come one-day rider. His 2018 has been a bit disappointing so far with a 7th place at GP Industria the only result to shout home about. However, he showed a lot of class last year to finish 10th on GC at the Volta a Portgual which is notoriously one of the toughest races of the year outside the Grand Tours. He’s obviously a talented guy! Israel Cycling Academy have been a bit disappointing so far and nowhere near as attacking as I thought they would be. That needs to change, otherwise their wildcard was a waste of time (and Israel’s money). Maybe Neilands has been saving it all for tomorrow?

Prediction

None of them will win though, instead we’ll see a flying Giulio Ciccone take the day.

DdGP6ZeXcAA1xvk

He nearly caused a bit of a shock on the last day of racing when he attacked out the GC group and got a bit of a gap. It was an impressive display of power as he went forward, Froome went back. That will certainly give the Bardiani man confidence! The stage departs from Penne tomorrow which is not too far away from Ciccone’s home town and we’ve seen in the past what that can do for motivation – take Visconti’s second place on stage 5 for example. He won Appennino from a three-up sprint, can he repeat the feat tomorrow? Looking back at the results from after the first rest day last year it was a time trial so there is not much to take from it, but guess who won in 2016 after the rest day? Yep, Ciccone!

Betting

Already tweeted out my selections the other day.

Screen Shot 2018-05-14 at 18.50.33

Odds have shortened on them all, but most are backable at their current prices.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 9 Preview; Pesco Sannita -> Gran Sasso d’Italia

Today’s Recap

Sigh.

For a while it looked as if it was guaranteed the break was going to make it, then with the weather turning sour and Katusha coming to the front things were quickly closed down to under 2 minutes before the start of the climb. The gap was cut again when Groupama got a bit frisky, making it only 1 minute with roughly 8kms left. However, things slowed a bit and the gap was just whittled down ever so slightly over the next little while. With 3kms to go and 25 seconds advantage, blog pick Bouwman made a move and immediately dropped everyone else from the break. Montaguti tried to bridge but couldn’t, meanwhile in the peloton Froome crashed going uphill for a bit of unusual comic relief for the day.

A couple of attacks were launched from the peloton with Richard Carapaz flying out the front of the bunch and no-one wanted to, or could follow. He quickly caught up and passed Bouwman at roughly 1km to go, continuing his charge to take his first Grand Tour stage win.

DdAe6fTWsAIr_np

 

Behind Formolo finished second, showing that he still has good legs despite his blow up on Etna, with Pinot coming home in third to take a few bonus seconds.

The GC stays pretty much the same aside from a few movers, with Yates leading heading into the last stage before the second rest day. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

After a pretty tiring stage today, I’m sure the riders will be less than pleased to see that they’ll be doing 225km tomorrow.

stage-9-profile

4000m of climbing and a finish at altitude, it could be a very good watch!

The day starts off with some rolling terrain but there is nothing too tough for the riders to worry about in the opening 80km. They’ll face an unclassified climb then which averages 4.7% for 8.5km – a nice little warm-up for what is to come. The Cat-2 Roccaraso follows. Again, it is not crazily difficult but it does have several kilometres at over 7%. It is too far out for any action.

It is once the riders get into the final 45km that things will get really tough: they pretty much spend it going uphill! In fact, once the riders pass the “178.2km” part on the profile above the final 46.8km average 3.7%, ouch.

gran-sasso-ditalia-campo-imperatore

The climb of Calascio is steady, averaging a solid 6% for 13kms. The riders well then face a long period of “easy” climbing, with the gradients averaging well under 4% for the following 30km. But with the road almost always rising, it will start to build up the lactate in their legs for what could be a punishing finale.

campo-imperatore

The final 7.5km average 6.5% and taken alone that would be a pretty interesting finish to the day. However, when you consider that it takes place north of 200km in the legs, then it should make things exciting. The last 4km averages roughly 8% and we could see some fairly big GC gap here if there are some tired legs in the bunch and things get wild.

Break or no break?

Hmmm, much like today it could really go either way.

It is a long day out in the saddle and it will be hard for one team to control everything in the peloton, so it will need a considered effort from a few teams to keep things within touching distance. If someone sneaks into the break that could be a danger on GC then it could spell the end for the break before it has begun. I think we’ll see a big fight to get into the morning move and the majority of teams will want to have at least one, if not two guys up the road for later in the day. Will there be enough co-operation ahead for them to stay away?

There are a couple of teams who were fairly quiet today, namely Astana, although they did have Villella in the break, who I imagine will try to throw a few cats among the pigeons tomorrow. Will they go for the stage win from the break or try to control things to set up Lopez? The Colombian does have previous on summit finishes at altitude – he taking a spectacular win to Sierra Nevada at the Vuelta last year.

Interestingly, after today’s stage Chaves said in an interview that he thinks the break will make it all the way.

I really can’t make up my mind, I’m well and truly on the fence! There are valid points to both arguments, I’m struggling to fully commit to one side. So I thought I’d have a look at stages before a rest day in previous Grand Tours (the past three years) to see if there was any pattern.

Giro – 2015 (Break), 2016 (N/A – TT day), 2017 (GC)

Tour – 2015 (N/A – TTT day), 2016 (Break), 2017 (GC)

Vuelta – 2015 (N/A – Sprint), 2016 (GC), 2017 (GC).

Not really as conclusive as I would have hoped for but the GC days edge it 4 to 2.

The issue that I keep coming back to though is the length of the stage tomorrow. At 225km, it really is tough for the GC teams to keep everything within touching distance if a strong group goes away, especially on the rolling terrain the riders will face. Then again, you could argue a motivated chase behind will eat into a tired break on the closing 45km climb…

As I hope we see two races in one tomorrow, I’ll break tradition and say that the break actually makes it.

TheBreakawayLottery

Jan Hirt.

DM72dd3f_4630729903_1650331331688028_15318452

*See yesterday’s preview*

Joking aside, Hirt is strong enough to win a stage like this. He’s the perfect Astana rider to get in the break as he is a very competent climber but is far enough down on GC not to see any chase from Mitchelton. Sanchez is another option for them but he could compromise the move given he is less than 5 minutes from Yates.

Giulio Ciccone.

bettiniphoto_0329615_1_1024px-640x427

Given that tomorrow’s finish is a tribute to Marco Pantani, I have to include the Bardiani rider who climbed Mt Etna in the drops. He was unlucky on that day as he definitely seemed the strongest from the breakaway, just a shame for him that the GC guys came out to play. Since then on the past few stages he has rolled home saving plenty of energy. Enough for a dig tomorrow?

Prediction

Neither of them will win though and instead we’ll see someone double up at this race…

DcsAozBXUAAXTvN

Wellens has lost time on a few stages so that he can continue to chase more wins rather than go for an ok GC position. He was involved in a tangle today but seems to have come through unscathed, instead rolling home pretty far down the order. Active early on this afternoon, he didn’t make the break but he is certainly lively enough to try again tomorrow. This year he has really taken a level up and I think he can cope with the final climb. Interestingly, his maiden Grand Tour win was at the Giro in 2016 on Stage 6 where they happened to finish on Roccaraso (although it was a different approach) which is the opening categorised climb tomorrow. More of the same? I hope so!

Betting

A classic day of backing some break riders then turn to GC riders if it looks as if it is going to be for them.

1.5pt WIN Wellens @ 25/1

1pt WIN Ciccone @ 18/1

0.5pt WIN Hirt @ 66/1

Buy Me A Beer (Coffee)

I’ve been slacking with my shameless self promotion recently, mainly because I am quite ashamed but if you’ve enjoyed the previews so far then you can “Buy me a beer” via this link and thank me for losing you some money!

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 8 Preview: Praia a Mare -> Montevergine di Mercogliano

Today’s Recap

Simple break went after Tony Martin’s cheeky move was brought to heel. Consequently it was a pretty easy day for the majority of the peloton. There were a couple of attacks on the run in but the sprinter’s teams had it under control. It was quite a scrappy sprint but in the end it was Sam Bennett who got the timing nailed on today, after going too early on Stage 2 and too late on Stage 3.

Dc7V_6yW4AAZcEc

The Bora rider followed Viviani’s wheel excellently in the closing kilometres, eventually coming round the Italian within the closing 25m as the Quick Step rider faded to second. An all-over-the-road Bonifazio managed to get up for third which was a good result considering he had to swap a wheel with 17km left. Was a bit of a dodgy sprint from him mind!

With the GC staying the same, Yates still leads into tomorrow’s summit finish. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A rolling day with a lot of uncategorised climbing in the opening part of the stage which should see a strong break form.

GiroS8

At 209km it is a long day for the riders too and the 3000m+ of elevation gain will be a tester on the legs. Thankfully for them, they have a large section of flat to have a rest on before the final climb of the day.

There is an uncategorised drag to the town of Celzi which averages 5.8% for 3.5km but given that it is still 30km to the finish it is unlikely to be the scene of action. With that said, given the strong chance that tomorrow is a day for the break, then we could see a thinning down of the move here.

stage-8-montevergine-di-mercogliano

The climb of Montevergine di Mercogliano is an easy one by Giro standards, averaging pretty much bang on 5% for 17.1kms. It’s too straight forward for any GC gaps unless someone is on a really bad day. Last time we were here in 2011 when Bart De Clerq just held off from the morning break, nearly being pipped on the line by a large group of GC riders and some.

How will the stage pan out?

Given the relatively easy finish for the GC guys and with a much harder stage to look forward to on Sunday, I think we’ll see the breakaway stay away tomorrow. Unless of course some sneaky character infiltrates the attack. Even then, if they aren’t too much of a threat overall then the move should still stick.

So it looks as if it is time to play everyone’s favourite game!

TheBreakawayLottery

Here we go…

Fausto Masnada.

I don’t think Androni have missed a break this Giro so it would be silly not to include one of their riders here! Masnada is not a household name and he is certainly a rider only “hardcore” cycling fans will have heard of but the young Italian is fairly talented. 2017 was his first year in the peloton after being with Lampre as a stagiare for the final few races of 2016. He produced some ok results throughout the year but by far his stand-out performance was a 4th place in the Queen stage at the Tour of Turkey, which cemented a 3rd place overall. Not bad for a first year pro! This year has seen him deliver consistent results with a 3rd at the recent Giro dell’Appennino his best to date. The “easy” gradients of the final climb should suit him. He won’t be hard to spot, he’ll be the guy with the white glasses, rocking and rolling all over his bike!

Jan Hirt.

Astana have stated that they’ll try for stage wins throughout the Giro and they have a few good cards to play for tomorrow with either Hirt or Lutsenko. The former was a revelation at this race last year, finishing a lofty 12th place on GC at the end of the three weeks. On the Etna stage he did a lot of the pulling on the early slopes of the climb, shelling out riders out the back of the peloton. After pulling the plug he cruised home 16 minutes down. His 10th place on GC in the recent Tour of the Alps highlights that he does have some good form at the moment and he would be a big danger in the right move. With the way Astana have performed this season, you wouldn’t rule him out just riding away from everyone.

Koen Bouwman.

Tour of the Alps 2018 - stage 4

Although Lotto Jumbo have Bennett high on GC, they also have a few climbers who they will hope can chase stage wins from breaks this race: Bouwmann is one of them. The slight Dutch rider is into his third year at WT level and he’s enjoyed some success this year with a 5th place on GC at the Coppi e Bartali. That result could have been so much better though if he had not crashed on the descent while away solo on the Queen stage. He’s not the best climber from a GC group but from a breakaway he certainly will have a chance. Packing a bit of a kick, if it comes down to a small sprint then he will back himself.

Giovanni Visconti.

Giro d'Italia 2017

So close on stage 5, it is a case of “what might have been?” for the Bahrain rider after he expended some crucial energy to bring back his team leader. On a proper mountain top finish with an average of 7% then Visconti would struggle but with the 5% on offer tomorrow it brings him into contention. He’s obviously in good shape just now but it will be interesting to see how recovers after a tumble the other day. If he’s back to 100% then I would be surprised if we don’t see him in the break!

The Wongshot Returns

For those of you have only followed the blog recently then let me do some explaining. Last year I had a terrible Giro prediction wise and I received some wonderful feedback from a “Mr Wong” who said that you would have a better chance of choosing a rider to go well by pinning all the names on a board and throwing a dart at them. So in good spirit, the Wongshot section was made, where I put the startlist into random.org and see who comes up. Funnily enough, I did a very similar RandomRider section the previous year at the Giro but that just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

It’s a good bit of fun for a day like tomorrow, so here goes…

Mattia Cattaneo.

Mattia-Cattaneo-Tour-de-La-Provence

Not actually the worst rider ever to make an argument for, he was my second choice Androni rider but I love Fausto so yeah. Cattaneo is a former winner of the Baby Giro back in 2011 when he beat the likes of Anacona and Aru. While at WT level he never really fulfilled his potential but a step down to Pro-Conti level last year saw his results improve and a renewed faith in his own ability. He had a great year scoring plenty of top 10s in .1 and .HC races, including his first pro win in La Provence. The finish climb tomorrow might be a bit on the long side for him but given his undoubted talent you never know!

Prediction

The break to stay away and Astana to get the stage win they’ve been longing after with Jan Hirt.

DM72dd3f_4630729903_1650331331688028_15318452

He’ll put everyone into the, ahem, Hirt Locker…

Betting

1pt WIN Visconti @ 25/1 with Bet365

0.5pt WIN on everyone else (including the Wongshot);

Hirt @ 125/1

Cattaneo @ 80/1

Masnada @ 100/1

Bouwman @ 150/1

You might get better prices elsewhere later on but I’m busy this evening so just want to get this published now!

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 7 Preview: Pizzo -> Praia a Mare

Today’s Recap

Well that was a great stage!

Attacks kept flying from the gun and it took over an hour for the break to eventually form, which saw a 25+ rider group get up the road. Chaves and Henao, along with a few others close on GC snuck their way into the move which made for a very interesting afternoon. As a result the move was never given too much leeway but they started the climb with over a minute on the peloton. The gap varied on the first 10km of the climb before we saw Chaves explode out of the already reduced break. He quickly built up a lead over the rest of the group who were soon swallowed up by the GC contenders. Probing attacks were made and a group including Pozzovivo, Pinot, Yates and Bennett managed to get a gap on the rest of the field. However, their unwillingness to properly work together saw things regroup. Meanwhile Chaves soldiered on ahead, maintaining a 25 second advantage going into the final 2kms. Yates then took advantage of being on the other side from the road of everyone else and as they all were looking at each other, he took off in pursuit of his team-mate. He closed the gap to Chaves remarkably quick and the two of them completed the final few hundred metres together, with the Brit allowing his Colombian team-mate to take the stage win.

Dc2bcovVwAAiJw1

Pinot won the sprint for third from the remainder of the GC group with none of the big GC favourites losing any more time than the 26 seconds they ceded to Yates and Chaves.

The result leaves Yates in the Maglia Rosa and looking at the Mitchelton squad, they certainly have a strong and well-rounded line-up to defend it for a while. Thankfully for them they should have a fairly easy day tomorrow as the sprinters most likely get their chance into Praia a Mare.

Let’s have a look at exactly what is in store for the riders.

The Route

An almost pan-flat day but with an interesting little kicker near the finish to entice some attacks.

GiroS7

Not much really here to talk about until we get to the 140km mark and even then, it is nothing too remarkable.

GiroS7Fin

The terrain rolls for over 12km with the major focal point being the 4km climb at 3.6%. It shouldn’t be too tough for the sprinters but it will certainly offer up a chance for some to make a bold attack. The continual up and down until the final 4km gives them an opportunity to make it stick, but given the wide open road then it will be tough for them to get away fully.

stage-7-finish

The riders will descend through a tunnel which could be a bit sketchy and we do have an elongated chicane at around the 2km to go mark. However, aside from that the finish is simple and it will be a drag race between lead-out trains.

Nailed on sprint?

Most likely yeah, but given we’re almost into the second week of the race tiredness will start to kick in for some riders and they might not be as keen to chase all day for a sprint. Today’s stage was fast right from the gun and that will certainly have taken a lot out of the sprinters so I would say the break has more of a chance than normal on a stage like this but even then it is still unlikely.

One thing that might favour the break is that the rest of the sprint teams need to try something to get an advantage over Quick Step. Not contributing to the chase would be a good start and they could send a man up the road as the perfect excuse.

If we see maybe 3 of the sprinters team send a guy in the break it could work. No doubt though we’ll see a group of 4 squirrel off and it will be controlled nicely all day.

Can anyone beat Viviani then?

Yeah, but they will need a combination of luck and great legs. They’ll be hoping the Quick Step rider struggled a bit today.

However, it will be very tough and I can’t really see it happening but you never know.

Modolo – Closest to Viviani on Stage 3 the EF rider has quite a good lead-out that can get close to Quick Step. He was with the peloton on Stage 5 before completely blowing up on the final climb but his legs must be good to get there.

Bennett – Hesitated on stage 2 and then went early on stage 3 and faded, probably as he cycled a few more metres than anyone else. Selig withdrew the other day and that will be a big loss for him. Bennett has beaten Viviani before this year, he just needs to remain confident.

Mareczko – Wilier have a lot of faith in the young sprinter as they’ve had almost all of their squad back helping him get through the past few stages. Will they have taken too much out of him?

Bonifazio – 4th in the opening sprint but was caught out by the winds on stage 3. He was good in helping bring Pozzovivo back to the front in stage 5 so I think he has fairly good legs. Sometimes he has good days but often blows cold.

Van Poppel – Jumbo’s short lead out hasn’t worked so far but on a simpler finish like this is should help them. For raw power I think DVP can get close to Viviani, he just needs everything to click.

Prediction

I’d like to see a break stay away to spoil the party but I just can’t see it happening. Viviani to take yet another stage win.

DccYaXZU0AIbI_1

I do think Van Poppel can get onto the podium tomorrow though.

Betting

Hmmm, could be a no bet day but I’ll go with:

1pt EW on DVP at 14/1

I might have a dabble on some potential break riders on the exchange but nothing stands out for me atm.

I do also fancy a H2H;

Venturini to beat Debuscherre at 6/5. (5pts on)

Debuscherre seems to have lost his sprinting legs quite a while ago and I think the AG2R rider is faster than him. On a finish that should be about pure speed and power, I favour the Frenchman.

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Can anyone stop Viviani? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 6 Preview; Caltanissetta -> Etna

Today’s Recap

Well that was annoying!

After naming three riders in yesterday’s preview they all came home in the top 4 today, but none of them finished on the top step.

It was quite a dull stage until we got into the final 20km when the pace started to ramp up and a crash in the peloton caused a few splits. A couple of GC guys were held up but most made it back into the fold, aside from Lopez who lost 40 seconds come the end of the day, but that was due to his own crash. On the final climb of the day Pozzovivo set a relentless pace at the bottom that shelled some riders and the Bahrain rider was quick to latch onto an attack by Ulissi. 

That set things up for Visconti to catch everyone, aside from today’s eventual winner Battaglin, by opening up his sprint early. It was a head to head drag race between the two on the final straight but the Lotto Jumbo had the strength to hold on in the end. Interestingly, the effort Visconti put in to bring back Pozzovivo before might have cost him the stage. Behind those two we saw a massive charge from both Schachmann and Goncalves who were both poorly positioned around the penultimate turn, leaving them 9 or 10 bike-lengths behind Visconti when he opened up the sprint. The Katusha rider just pipped the current Young Jersey holder on the line to complete the podium.

DcxOV1xUQAEr4EU

Definitely a day of “what ifs?” punting wise. What if Visconti didn’t have to expend energy bringing Pozzovivo back? What if Schachmann didn’t expend energy coming back himself or starting the sprint too far back? What if Goncalves didn’t run a bit wide in the penultimate turn and cost himself a few positions? Alas, this is cycling though and none of that can be changed, and I’m sure I could ask myself various questions after every stage! Kicking myself a bit for not backing them all EW but oh well, I’ll stand by my reasoning for that.

However, it is good to know that my radar is still working pretty well. Bring on tomorrow!

The Route

We’re onto stage 6 and the riders are greeted with the first mountain top finish of the race, on Mt Etna. Cue the numerous puns I can make about volcanoes throughout the rest of this preview, would you lava to hear them? Moving on…

GiroS6

A fairly short day in the saddle at only 164km but the riders will face over 3000m of elevation gain throughout the day. The opening half of the stage is very rolling, much like what we have had over the past couple of stages. It will be used for either the breakaway to gain time or if a lot of the GC teams are interested in the stage, they can keep the move on a tight leash and use the rolling terrain to wear down their opponents.

The peloton climbed Mount Etna last year, only the 4th time in Giro history, so it is a surprise to see them back so soon. In 2017 the stage was made a bit too dormant due to a strong head wind that saw the GC favourites mark each other out (aside from Zakarin who launched an attack a couple of kilometres from the top), and consequently the early breakaway rider Polanc held on for a very strong stage win.

Interestingly, the race will tackle Etna from a different side for the first time. Will this see some more explosive racing? Before they start the climb proper though, the peloton will be heading upwards for a while.

belpasso

The unclassified climb of Belpasso isn’t tough, only averages 3.2% for 14.4km, but it will act as a warm-up/leg-sapper for what is to come. A short descent follows before the climb of Etna begins.

stage-6-etna

Averaging 6.5% for 15kms, this approach of Etna is easier than last year (18km at 6.6%). It is quite an irregular climb though which might see some riders find it hard to get into a rhythm. The toughest 4kms of the ascent come near the top, as they average 8%. This is where someone hoping to make up any GC time will need to attack to put others into difficulty as the closing kilometre eases off.

Looking at the wind conditions there seems to be a light breeze of 5 or 6 km/h coming from the East on the climb which should mean it is a crosswind for the majority of it, but with a headwind in the closing few kilometres. However, with the wind being light I don’t think it will have anywhere near as bag an impact as we saw last year so hopefully we should still be in for some attacking racing.

How will the stage pan out?

We saw a rather surprise breakaway win here last year so can Polanc repeat the feat this time around?

It all depends on the attitude of the GC teams. I think BMCs best way to defend the jersey is to let the break take the stage and with it the bonus seconds, meaning Dennis only has to follow the other contenders to hold onto Pink. That is no easy task though!

Normally on a day like this we would see Sky come to control the peloton with but them and Froome being a bit shaky at the moment with their performances, will they do that? Astana could really do with a good result after Lopez’s crash today but his form is a question mark, especially when you consider his pre TT accident too.

Dumoulin will be happy with his current GC position and the fact Sunweb don’t have to commit fully to any chase. They have helped out here and there over the past few stages but it has been more to show face than anything else. It will be interesting to see if they help out tomorrow – does Dumoulin and the team want the pressure of the jersey already?

The two GC teams that I do think will help to chase, especially if the break is kept on a tight leash coming into the final 60km will be Mitchelton and Bahrain. Both Yates and Pozzovivo have looked very lively in the past couple of days which indicates that they are in a confident mood given the tricky finishes we have had. If those teams commit a man to the chase from the gun then the break has no chance, but if not, then we could well see a surprise.

I’m very torn as to how this stage will pan out, as you can probably tell by now!

I’m nailing my colours to the mast and saying if we get a GC showdown it is between Yates and Pozzovivo for the stage but I want to mention a couple of potential breakaway riders as well.

TheBreakawayLottery

Giulio Ciccone.

bettiniphoto_0329615_1_1024px-640x427

The Bardiani rider was flying in the Tour of the Alps, which saw him then going on to win Giro dell’Apennino not long after. He crashed the day before the start of the Giro in Israel, suffering some damage to his hand. As Bardiani’s hopes for the mountains, he’s lost some time on GC over the past couple of stages and I would expect to see him on the attack in stages to come. A very talented rider, he already has a Giro stage to his name when he won a tough stage to Sestola back in 2016 when he was only 21 years old. In fact, adding to that is his Queen Stage win in the Tour of Utah  and it paints the picture of a guy who can go well in the high mountains. If he makes the break and starts Etna with a 2-minute advantage, the peloton won’t see him until the top.

Rodolfo Torres.

Sticking with the Italian pro-conti teams here and Androni’s pure-climber. Torres is a bit of an enigma in that whenever he is going well he seems to be really strong but he often goes missing in a lot of races. So far here he has done nothing noteworthy and now finds himself over 5 minutes down on GC. Androni have been well represented in the break every day and tomorrow would be a good day to try to get the Colombian into the move. If he’s on a good day and makes a break with some average climbers, then he has a good chance.

Prediction

Could see a break, could see a GC showdown. Hmmmm.

Things will get brought back by a keen Mitchelton and Bahrain led chase with both of their main riders attacking in the closing kilometres and getting a gap. I would normally go with Yates on a finish like this given his better sprint but with how red-hot Pozzovivo has been riding so far this past month, I have to go with him to take a “magmanomous” victory! Sorry.

20186563_424805_670

Betting

These are the types of days where I really don’t like to get involved with GC rider bets pre-stage. Particularly when the odds don’t change too much once the stage starts but they look chunky for Pozzo whereas they look short for Ciccone.

1.15pt EW Pozzovivo @ 14/1 with Bet365

0.2pt WIN Torres @ 200/1

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win? Could we see a break stay away or will the GC guys come out to play? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 5 Preview: Agrigento -> Santa Ninfa

Today’s Recap

A bit of a slow burner despite UAE’s best attempt at stirring some action with over 100km to go. However, things settled down and it was only on the uncategorised climb before the finish that things got spicy, with Conti quickly bridging to a Zardini attack and duly dropping the Wilier rider. He looked strong and for a little while as if he might have a chance of the win as the peloton looked at each other. Lotto FixAll took up the pace setting and were joined by Mitchelton, eventually catching Conti in the final 3km. On the downhill run to the kick up to the line the pace was incredibly high and there was a slight split in the peloton which saw a group of riders start the climb with a small gap.

Wellens powered home to take the win, with Woods following not far behind and Battaglin holding on for third from a charging Yates who was closing by the metre.

DcsAozBXUAAXTvN

A poor day punting wise but all of the picks started too far back and couldn’t make any places up on the climb itself. With that said, Goncalves was unfortunate with mechanicals and I think Betancur was hindered by the pile-up. Certainly a day for the bookies though as they nailed the 1st, 2nd and 4th riders as their pre-stage favourites.

I was also slightly disappointed at the lack of attacks in the finale but hopefully we’ll see some action a bit further out than 10km from home tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Another rolling day in Sicily but there is less vertical gain than today’s stage.

GiroS5

However, the majority of the climbing comes in the last 60kms, with there barely being any flat kilometres on the run-in so you could argue that it is harder. None of the three Cat-4 climbs are overly tough with the distances and average gradients being as follows; 2.5km at 4%, 8.5km at 3.8% and 5.5km at 4.6%.

After the last categorised climb the road continues to roll though with an unclassified lump of 4.5km at 3.5% before the riders head downhill and towards the finish.

stage-5-5km

Like normal, I’ve made a profile of the final 5km that you can view here.

The riders will turn off the main road, taking quite a sharp right-hand bend and instantly hit a climb.

Final2kmGiroS5

The final 2km of the day averages 4.2% but the majority of the climbing comes in the first 1.4km of the run-in which is a steeper 6%. There is a short descent for a couple of hundred metres which heads into a very sharp corner.

Screen Shot 2018-05-08 at 14.15.08

Approaching from the road on the right the riders will swing around and complete a tight 180 before continuing on in the final 400m. Interestingly, the road rises all the way to the finish: the gradient isn’t too severe but the 3% average means you don’t want to open up a sprint early.

How will the stage pan out?

Pffft, we’re already at the stage of the race where we could feasibly see a breakaway make it to the line. There are plenty of riders, over 100, who are over 4 minutes down on Dennis already. If a group of 6 or so guys escapes in the morning that are all in that bottom 100 and no-one commits to a chase then we could see them stay away.

However, I think there will be enough guys who want to give tomorrow a go to chase behind. Therefore, I give the morning break a 20% chance of making it.

That then leaves a late-attack or a reduced sprint as the two possible options. Depending on the attitude of the peloton and who makes the attack, I would split the remaining 80%, 43:37 in favour of it being a reduced sprint. I think…

I’ve watched back the finale from today at least 5 times to try to ascertain who was gapped because of being held up by the fall on the run-in, or who finished further back just because the legs weren’t there. It’s not been easy but I have a couple of riders who seemed to finish strongly after being far back and a sign that they might go better tomorrow with some more luck.

As usual, on a stage like this I could name several riders who might have a chance in different situations but we all know how I roll by now so here’s my trio of riders to avoid.

The Terrible Trio

Giovanni Visconti.

Giro d'Italia 2017

Although the Italian was born in Turin he was raised and lived in Sicily so he will want to put on a good show on what are some of his home roads. After not mentioning him for today’s stage I was hoping he would keep a low profile and go for it tomorrow. He’s even handily lost some time too over the previous days! The easier gradients on the climbs are well suited to the Bahrain rider and I think he should be given a free-role to chase some personal glory; the team did say that he would be allowed chances throughout the race and stage 5 is the last opportunity for Visconti to challenge on home roads. I’ll be intrigued to see how he plays it out; whether he goes in the morning break or waits for a late attack. His performances in the Autumn Italian one-day races were very good and if he is near that level again then he could be hard to beat from a small group.

Jose Goncalves.

I didn’t back him straight away yesterday but couldn’t resist and stuck some cash on him later on in the evening. Of course, the inevatble #HaugheyCurse followed and the Katusha rider suffered several mechanicals ranging from a puncture to loose handlebars. It meant he was constantly chasing on in the final 12kms but still managed to finish a respectable 39th, just behind the likes of Froome and Lopez. If we get a reduced bunch sprint of 30 riders or so then Goncalves should be one of the fastest, if not the fastest guy there. His form seems to be hot right now and a win is coming, it is just a matter of when?

Max Schachmann.

 

DZEXY1JU8AAGlO1

The young German reminds me of better times a couple of months ago and his remarkable win in Catalunya that I somehow predicted. Although luck was definitely on my side that day after the change of course saw only a two-man break go but a strong tailwind on the run in helped them stay away. On today’s stage he was near the head of the group but crashed into some spectators around one of the tight corners on the descent. After managing to gather himself and his bike, he pushed on and finished in 21st place – a very good result all things considered. He certainly lost more in the crash than the 10 seconds he finished behind at the end. Strong and lively enough, I think we could see a late attack possibly stick from him tomorrow; he seems to be in great form at the moment.

Prediction

We all know where this is going…

Come on Jose “#GoOnCalves” Goncalves!

José-Gonçalves

Betting

1pt EW Goncalves @ 18/1 

1pt WIN Schachmann @ 33/1

0.5pt WIN Visconti @ 33/1

All with Bet365.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win tomorro and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 4 Preview: Catania -> Caltagirone

Rest day recap

The wind was strong for the final stage in Israel but much to my disappoint, it was pretty much a tailwind for the majority of the way home. We did get a couple of splits on a short section but the bulk of the peloton arrived together. As predicted, it was rinse and repeat, with Viviani showing that he is the strongest sprinter here, coming round a swerving Bennett to take the win. The Irishman was beaten by Modolo for second place but he held on for third.

Dch0OwRV4AAJtxr

Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow on their return to Italy.

The Route

A leg sapping stage made worse by tough Sicilian roads.

stage-4-profile

This is just a typical day out at the Giro: 3000m+ of climbing but only two Cat-4 KOM ascents, classic. There is no real prolonged periods of flat land with the road constantly going up or down, especially in the final 2/3rds of the stage.

We could see some early attacks from stage hopefuls but they’re unlikely to stick, unless the morning break makes it all the way but with BMC wanting as much exposure as possible at the moment then it has less chance than normal.

The decisive part of the day is the final 16kms and what it holds for the riders.

GiroS4Final16km

Like always I’ve made profile that you can view here.

The final 16kms kicks off with the uncategorised climb of San Bartolomeo, which averages a fairly steady 3.7% gradient for almost 8kms.

Brweg

It’s an interesting one as the gradient isn’t too severe but given the length of it, if a team decides to take up the pace and go full gas then we could see the peloton split. Bear in mind the amount of climbing they will have done before this point, but again, it all just depends on how fast and aggressively it is raced.

Once over the top they will have just over 7kms to go on rolling terrain which might present a chance for an opportunist to attack before the finale. The peloton will also have to contend with some narrow roads (like the following image), taken at roughly 3km to go.

Screen Shot 2018-05-07 at 15.28.23

I wonder if we’ll see a rider attack and their team try to block the road/chase? If we don’t get any action on the run-in then it will all come down to the final kick up to the line.

GiroS4FinalClimb

At an average of 8% for 900m it will entice both climbers and puncheurs, with lots of riders possibly fancying their chances at stage glory.

It must not be a popular Strava segment though as there only 77 people who’ve had an attempt at it, but interestingly, a few of them are here. Pinot, Preidler and Roy all “reccied” the stage on the 4th of April, just a couple of days after Geniez and Montaguti had a look at it. Pinot actually holds the KOM with a time of 2’40, whereas everyone else listed there took it a bit more leisurely. Will we see the Frenchman give it a go tomorrow?

Contenders

Given the various different ways this stage could pan out then there are a whole host of riders who *might* have a chance but I’m not going to name 20+ people here, nobody’s got time for that! So instead, I’ll focus on just three guys who could go well.

I’ll give an honourable mention to #GoOnCalves first though who could conceivably take the leader’s jersey with a stage win and a gap to Dennis. Anyway,

Alexandre Geniez.

alexandregeniez-winning-gplamarseillaise2018-660x330

I had to choose one of the guy’s who have had a look at the climb before and Geniez is the perfect mix of not being a real GC threat but is solid and strong enough to go well. Although I think his team-mate (Montaguti) might try an early attack. Geniez started the season in flying form winning the GP Marseillaise before taking the overall title in La Provence. Since then he has been a bit quiet results wise but his form has slowly been building in the Tour of the Alps. He surprised me, and a lot of other people, with his win in Tre Valli Varesine towards the backend of last year where he won a very reduced sprint against Pinot. That day Geniez sprung out of the chasing pack to bridge across to the two leaders (Pinot and Nibali) on the last ramps of the final climb. Combining that with his sprint win in Marseillaise but also his breakaway wins in the Vuelta and you get a well-rounded rider. I still think it will be hard for him to beat everyone if he arrives with the peloton at the foot of the climb so he might have to anticipate the action and attack beforehand, but you never know!

Pello Bilbao.

If you’ve read this blog over the past couple of years then you will know I’m a big fan of the Spaniard since his sprightly days at Caja Rural. His debut season at Astana last year didn’t get off to the best of starts but a 4th place on a breakaway stage at the Giro was a sign of things to come. In the Vuelta towards the end of the year he was phenomenal and instrumental in helping Lopez secure a couple of stage wins but also pacing Aru when he was in difficulty. This season we’ve seen a much more consistent rider who’s taken solid GC placings in Valenciana and Itzulia before he recently won the opening stage in the Alps. His opening TT here was a bit of a surprise but given the punchy route we had then maybe it wasn’t too much of a shock, it did indicate that he is in good form though. Tomorrow’s 1km finish looks great for him and with Astana no doubt having plenty of numbers in the front group on the run in, will we see them constantly attacking or trying to set it up for the sprint on the climb? Bilbao has a good shot either way and like Goncalves, he too has a chance of taking the leader’s jersey with a win and a gap to the others.

Carlos Betancur.

DccAn2VW0AEquwM

I haven’t seen the Colombian this motivated for a race in a while, he seems to have his head in the right place again. In 2017 he was domestique deluxe for Quintana at the Tour before being given the opportunity to chase stages in the Vuelta. That unfortunately didn’t go to plan as he crashed on the 7th stage while with the main group of favourites. He’s came back this season though and has had solid results in GP Indurain and Amorebieta but it was his opening prologue that really caught my eye. Like Bilbao he’s not exactly a great TT rider, in fact he’s a pretty terrible one, but his form must have been good on the punchy course to get himself round in 10th place. This type of finish we have tomorrow would be bread and butter for the Betancur that finished 5th on GC at this race back in 2013 or dominated Paris Nice in 2014. Is he at that level again? I’m not sure, but tomorrow will certainly be an acid test for him. I think I can speak for the majority of the cycling public in saying that we would all love to see Bananito back at his best!

Prediction

I kind of spoiled this on my Twitter but yeah, Pello Bilbao to win the stage!

Pentaphoto_120450-1024x683

He looks in great form at the moment and with the Astana team as strong as they are they should be able to control proceedings in the finale. Just up to them whether Bilbao attacks early and they block the road on the narrow sections, or to keep it together and watch him fly up the final climb.

Betting

I did tweet out I was backing Bilbao when odds came out yesterday but the price has long since gone but I still would take him at what he is now.

1pt EW Bilbao @ 28/1 with Bet365 (would take 25/1 lowest)

1pt EW Betancur @ 40/1 with various bookmakers, Betfred are paying 4 places. (would take 33/1 lowest)

0.5pt EW Geniez @ 100/1 with Bet365 (Would take 80/1, maybe 66/1 at a push)

**Update – Added 1pt EW Goncalves @ 25/1.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how will the stage pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 3 Preview; Be’er Sheva -> Eilat

Today’s Recap

The early morning break eventually went but were never given too big an advantage and we ultimately saw them brought back before the only categorised climb of the day. Barbin sprung out of the peloton and was duly rewarded with the jersey on the podium at the end of the stage. More interestingly though, we saw Dennis and Campenaerts both attempt to go for the intermediate sprint point not long after, with the BMC man coming out on top and consequently moving into the GC lead.

Things then calmed down before an incredibly hectic and nervous finale on a tricky finish followed. It looked as if Bennett was in the perfect position but he was caught napping by Mareczko who launched early, hoping to take advantage of the slight tailwind finish. One rider who wasn’t napping though was Viviani and he instantly latched onto the Wilier rider’s wheel, before sling shotting around him with ease, taking the win comfortably in the end.

DccYaXZU0AIbI_1

Rinse and repeat tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

A more rolling day but still flat by Giro standards.

GiroS3

It is however the longest stage of the race and with the peloton travelling through the arid Negev desert, some riders might really struggle in the hot conditions. Interestingly enough, the intermediate sprints both come within the first 80kms of the day: I wonder if Campenaerts wants to try to go for the Maglia Rosa?

GiroS3Map

If you thought today’s finish was tricky, then tomorrow is ridiculous.

GiroS3Fin

Plenty of roundabouts for the riders to deal with, including 6 from 6km to 2km out. Thankfully they continue straight forward through them all but it will keep things stretched. It is once we get inside 2km to go that things get really wild, in typical Giro fashion. The riders will be forced to slow right down as they complete a 180 around a roundabout on what looks like narrow roads.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 17.53.55

I say looks like as the above image is the best we can get as the street view stops just before it. Rather annoying!

The road then bends round to the right just before 1km to go but this is coupled with the road narrowing down to just one lane.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 17.58.56

A nasty unmarked (on the profile anyway) mini roundabout comes with 750m or so to go. Again they just go straight, but it looks quite tight and the riders can’t ride directly over it, meaning they will have to swerve around it. Once again, stringing things out even more.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 18.00.54

The final turn then awaits with 300m to go.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 18.05.04

Once again the road narrows down to one-lane but the corner doesn’t seem as tight as I thought it would be. Nonetheless, it isn’t exactly an easy finish!

Will it end in a sprint though?

Weather Watch

That of course all depends on one thing: the wind.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 18.08.49
Source: Windfinder

The above is the forecast for Grofit which is roughly 50kms from home. As you can see, it is set to be a scorching afternoon but a very windy one too. A strong wind from the north (meaning mainly some sort of tailwind) throughout the day will see the peloton fly over the 229km.

As the road twists and turns through the desert some areas will be more crosswind but at the moment the majority of the day seems to be tailwind. However, the wind direction changed for today’s stage so the same could happen for tomorrow. I for one would like to see some crosswinds (shock) but there will be plenty of riders who won’t.

We’ll be in for some nervous racing throughout the day as all the GC contenders won’t be able to skip a beat in fear of getting shelled out the back.

Can anyone stop Viviani?

After what we saw today, it will be hard!

Even with him being terribly positioned at 700m to go, he still managed to find the right wheel and get back into the mix. He was then the most alert to latch onto Mareczko’s flyer and from there it was plain sailing. His kick was stronger than anyone else and he gained on everyone as they approached the line. This is a finish that should suit a team controlling it from 3kms out and QuickStep have a squad capable of doing just that.

Mareczko, Bennett and Bonfiazio were all lively but they’ll need to start their sprint ahead of Viviani as it will be hard to come round him. With that said, given the possible headwind finish, they might just have to do it that way!

The opportunists?

With a tricky finish and a potentially depleted bunch, there is a chance we could see a late attack stick tomorrow. Pick a name out of the hat time but there are three I want to mention, and you’ll probably see them mentioned countless times over the next few weeks as well!

Matej Mohoric.

Screen Shot 2018-05-05 at 19.12.45

Everyone’s favourite top-tube descender, Mohoric loves to throw the spanner into the works, always trying an audacious move. We saw in Croatia that on Stage 2 he attacked in the last lap on a tricky circuit but was caught at the flamme rouge. If we get a hectic stage tomorrow and Bonifazio isn’t present in the lead group but Pozzovivo is safe, Mohoric might be given the chance to go for his own result. One of the best bike handlers in the peloton, he’ll take those tricky roundabouts with ease!

Jose Goncalves.

Mr #GoOnCalves is a rider I have fond memories of backing a lot at the Vuelta when he burst onto the scene back in 2015. I’m getting the same vibe from him just now, with the Portugese rider seemingly in tip-top form. He made a half-hearted dig today, Katusha actually looked pretty lively, and I think we might see something similar tomorrow. A very punchy rider, if he can time his attack perfectly in the closing kilometres it will be tough for a small group to bring him back.

Tim Wellens.

Is he going for GC, is he not, who knows? Lotto Fixall normally ride very strongly in the wind and with a very experienced team I would be surprised not to see the majority of their squad make any split. We’ve seen in the past how attacking a rider Wellens is and in the finale he has the abilities to do something similar to what Tony Martin hs done in the past. He’s had his best season to date so far and a stage win in a Grand Tour would help top it off. The one concern with him is the heat as he sometimes struggles in hot conditions.

Prediction

I’m hoping the wind plays ball and we get a drama filled, echelon-fuelled day. However, I still think we will probably see the same rider raise his arms aloft at the end of the stage. QuickStep are the masters in windy conditions and they should be able to protect Viviani well enough.

DccYaXZU0AIbI_1

Betting

No way am I backing a sprinter so small stakes on the three opportunists listed above for patter.

0.125pt WIN on them all.

Mohoric @ 300/1

Goncalves @ 400/1

Wellens @ 400/1

(All with Bet365)

You probably will get better prices on the Exchanges later/tomorrow morning!

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win? Will the weather play a big part in the day? Or will everything stay together for a sprint? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 2 Preview: Haifa -> Tel Aviv

Today’s Recap

We had some drama before the first rider even rolled down the ramp, with Froome, Lopez and Siutsou all falling on their recon of the course. The latter unfortunately had to abandon.

Dennis was the first big hitter out and he blitzed the course as expected, finishing over 30 seconds ahead of Cavagna who was his nearest early challenger. However, we saw surprisingly strong times from Conti then Goncalves which highlighted just how punchy the route was and that Dennis’ time may not have been as unbeatable as it first seemed. Campenaerts flew out the blocks, leading Dennis by 1 second at the intermediate time but he faded ever so slightly and came home fractions behind the BMC rider. It looked as if Dennis was going to be in the leader’s jersey tomorrow but the reigning Giro champion had other ideas and Dumoulin won by a “comfortable” 2 seconds in the end.

DcXGk57XcAM93hS

 

Will he manage to hold onto the jersey for the whole race? Personally I think it would be wise for Sunweb to relinquish it to save some strength over a few stages, it will be tough for them to control things every day. They shouldn’t have to worry about it too much tomorrow as they should get some help from the sprinter’s teams as the fast men look set to have their chance at stage glory.

Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

An almost pancake flat day in the saddle with one small Cat-4 to reward someone in the break with the KOM jersey at the end of the stage.

GiroS2Map

GiroS2

As for the finish itself, the run-in zig-zags through Tel Aviv, taking many sharp 90-degree turns.

GiroS2Fin

Thankfully for the riders none of them are too close to the other, with the last right turn taking place at roughly 800m to go.

Screen Shot 2018-05-04 at 16.13.42

It doesn’t look like an overly difficult turn either, with the riders being able to take it from the far left lane, making it a sweeping turn more than anything else. Nonetheless, it will no doubt string things out for the run to the line. You don’t want to be too far back as it might be difficult to make up places.

So a straightforward sprint stage then…

Well, it all depends on how the wind shapes up. The final 60km of the day hug the coast line and with exposed roads, there is a chance that some crosswinds cause echelons.

Weather Watch

It won’t be as warm as it was today and the riders will be cooled by a breeze coming off the sea.

Screen Shot 2018-05-04 at 16.25.41
Source: Windfinder

The above is the forecast for Gaash which comes with roughly 30km to go. As you can see, there is a stiff breeze in the morning coming off of the coast and blowing right across the riders. It does die down a bit throughout the day and doesn’t look strong enough to create echelons but these things can change in an instant. Furthermore, when you consider how nervous everyone will be knowing about the potential for echelons, then that will make the racing faster which will consequently increase the chances for splits.

Nonetheless, I doubt we’ll see any splits, the wind needs to be 5-10km/h stronger. Although I hope we do, as we all know, I do love an echelon!

Sprinters

Elia Viviani.

The best sprinter on paper, Viviani has a team that is almost fully dedicated to him and there will be a lot of pressure for him to deliver. His 2018 started with a bang, taking 6 wins from January to March which included the overall title in Abu Dhabi. Since then though his racing schedule has been pretty light only returning to the action in Romandie where his performances were less than inspiring. With a strong team that should dominate the finale, they will hope to string things out in the closing kilometres, with Viviani calling upon his trusted lead-out man Sabatini. If he is as fast as he was at the start of the year then it will be hard for most to beat him.

Sam Bennett.

Viviani’s likeliest challenger, the Irishman hasn’t had a great year so far as he’s been hampered by illness or injury. He took a handful of podium places in the sprints at this race last year, after spending the first couple of stages once again overcoming illness. His only recent race was Eschborn Frankfurt where he finished in 7th place, a result which doesn’t look great on paper but he messed up the finish so it could have been so much better. Bora have a compact but strong lead-out, including the under-rated last man Selig and will hope to challenge Quick Step on the run in. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Bennett take the win.

Danny Van Poppel.

20186437_409896_670

He won his very first race this season with the opening stage of Valenciana but since then he has failed to raise his arms again. Van Poppel on his day can match some of the very best and he would hope to pick up one win this Giro. His lead-out is pretty short but that is very similar to what we’ve seen from Jumbo all season: they try to take over the head of the peloton in the final 2kms or less. It is a strategy that is very hit or miss so it is hard to tell what we’ll get from Van Poppel tomorrow.

Those three are the strongest sprinters here but there will be others looking to spoil the party.

Modolo – A hit or miss sprinter, he seems to find himself on the deck more often than not as of late. Nonetheless, he’s won two stages at this race in the past and can’t be discounted. Van Asbroeck and Docker will hope to provide support.

Mareczko – The King of the .1 and .HC race, the Wilier sprinter is only 24 but he already has 35 wins to his name. Rather amazingly though, he only has one win on European soil back in 2016 at the Coppi e Bartali. He gets incredibly aero, similar to Ewan, but his only good results against the big riders have been when he has followed the right wheel. Can he manage to actually come around someone?

Bonifazio – I rate the Italian as he is a bit of daredevil sprinter, willing to take some risks in the closing kilometre. Like Modolo, he is very hot and cold but on his day he has a great turn of speed. I wonder if we’ll see Mohoric give him a one kilometre lead-out again?

Guardini – Mr Langkawi will want to topple Mr Taihu Lake in the battle of the Italian Pro Conti teams. Guardini surprised most with his 2nd place on the opening day in Abu Dhabi, he took a few scalps that stage. However, he has since been a bit meh, but Bardiani have been going well as of late so there will be confidence in the team. Could easily podium or come 12th.

Venturini – The French pocket rocket has shown flashes of speed throughout this season but his lead-out isn’t great and he’ll most likely be surfing wheels. He would prefer a trickier finish.

Debuscherre – Long forgotten as an actual sprinter, Jens will be rolling back the clock here as Lotto Fix-All’s fast man. They actually have a powerful train and we could see them fighting for position at the end of the day. Does he have the zip in his legs to compete nowadays?

Prediction

It will most likely be a Viviani v Bennett showdown but the opening day of actual road racing can often throw up a surprise.

Nonetheless, I think we’ll actually see Bennett take his first Grand Tour stage win here.

Towards Zero Race Melbourne

I liked what I saw from him in Frankfurt (aside from the last 500m) and with Selig delivering him to the perfect position, he has the speed to match Viviani, who himself will come home second. Behind, I think we might see Bonifazio sprint onto the podium.

As I’ve said though, this is the first open road stage of the Giro so anything could happen, it’s a shame Postelberger isn’t here!

Betting

3pts WIN Bennett @ 16/5 on the BF Exchange (Would take the 11/4 with Bet365)

1pt EW Bonifazio @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think is going to win tomorrow? Could we see a shock result? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.