Amgen Women’s Tour of California 2017 Preview – GC and Stages

The race with the longest sponsor name ever, the “Amgen Breakaway from Heart Disease Women’s Race empowered by SRAM” returns on Thursday for its third year and second at World Tour status.

Last year’s edition saw a GC that was shaped by the opening two stages, with the TTT on stage 2 playing a large part in the outcome. The organisers have decided to remove that this year, leaving 4 open road stages.

Defending champion Megan Guarnier is here with a strong Boels team and she will no doubt be looking to repeat that success again this year.

2016 Amgen Women's Tour of California: Guarnier podium

Will she be able to? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders over the next few days.

The Route

Stage 1.

We see the same opening stage that we had last year, with the riders travelling in a clockwise direction around Lake Tahoe.

amgen-breakaway-from-heart-disease-women s-race-empowered-2017-stage-1-1494320109

It is a mostly flat stage but there are two Cat-3 climbs out on course.

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 14.33.20
All profiles thanks to @RickyFilips95 / @LasterketaBurua

 

They’re not overly difficult but we did see a split in the peloton over the first climb in last years race so it will be interesting to see if any team wants to try to put the pressure on again. As for the finish it is tricky and time can be lost but I would expect 20 or so riders to come him within 25-30 seconds of the winner. The wind may play a part on the lap around the Lake as well because it looks set to be a 35km/h SouthWesterly which will mean a cross-head for the end of the race. Could we see some splits because of that? I’ll go for a Guarnier win again although it will be hard to drop Rivera, but watch out for Astana’s Arlenis Sierra who I think could pull off a strong result here.

Stage 2.

After removing the TTT the organisers have decided to add in an even more decisive stage on the second day of racing.

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 14.35.10

 

A short but sharp stage at only 108km, the riders have three classified climbs to contend with. I would expect a thinning out of the bunch on the opening Cat-2 but all the focus of the day will be on the Cat-1 climb to Dagget Summit. We don’t see climbs like these often in women’s racing and I’m very much looking forward to seeing how it plays out, 12.6km at 6.1% is Alpine and only the best climbers will be able to compete here. With the summit coming 10km from the finish line, it is very probable that a solo rider takes the climb and rides all the way to the line. The riders will use the same finish climb from the previous day, but expect the gaps to be much bigger this time! Without a full start list just now it’s hard to tell who will be in contention but it is hard to look past Boels but more specifically van der Breggen and Guarnier. They could well ride a 1-2 on the stage, it all depends on how van der Breggen is after her big peak for the Ardennes. One team to look out for his United Health Care who were dominant in the Tour of the Gila recently, and I think Katie Hall could run the duo close.

Stage 3. 

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 14.35.42

 

A pan flat stage finishing in Sacramento, this should be one for the sprinters. They’ll be thankful to get their chance after surviving the previous day! Rivera, Guarischi and Pieters all have a chance but it will be tough to beat Wild.

Stage 4. 

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 14.36.10

 

We finish with the traditional pan-flat lap circuit around Sacramento. At 70km in length it is longer than a criterium but shorter than a traditional kermesse. Either way, it should be a fast race and the same sprinters from the previous stage should feature here again. Wild won here last year, can she double up this edition?

GC Battle

The GC will be decided on Stage 2. There are likely to be gaps after stage 1, but these will pale into insignificance after the second day.

It is hard to tell where riders will be at in regards to form and when you factor in that some teams only arrived yesterday, jet lag could still be an issue. Being a home race will mean the American riders and teams will want to animate it as much as possible, trying to put the likes of Boels under pressure.

Can they shake off Guarnier and van der Breggen if they are in good form? Nope.

However, if those two aren’t in top shape then it could present an opportunity for a surprise victor. I mentioned her above, but Katie Hall will go well here I think. She was strong on the tough stages in Gila and without a TT (she lost time in that discipline) then I think she can be up there on stage 2 and possibly surprise a few.

17gilastg51527_670

Prediction

Nonetheless, I think that it will be hard to see past a Boels win here. After having a poor individual spring campaign (results wise) and with some questioning her performance, I think Guarnier will come out here firing, having been targeting this race all along.

16wmnatocstg1guarnier.jpg_670

Taking her second title in a row with a dominant display.

Coverage

It looks as if we’ll be able to watch the race live on Youtube again this year.

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 13.00.24

I’m not sure of the exact links just now as clicking on them just takes you to a static page on the site, nonetheless I’m sure they’ll be updated closer to the start of the broadcasts. You can view the list here.

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Apologies that this is a little more stunted than normal but I don’t have the time to wait until the full official start list is released later today. Furthermore, with the GC more than likely being decided on one stage there isn’t really that much to talk about. I hope we just get to see some exciting women’s racing unfold. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s