Well that was bitterly disappointing. No fireworks, no real attacks on the climbs and a proper bunch sprint in the end. Nonetheless, that shouldn’t take away from Cimolai’s great win, as he pipped Bouhanni to the line.
It was Sbaragli who rounded out the podium for Dimension Data.
I know I’m often wrong with my preview’s but it has been a while since I’ve been that far off. Let’s move swiftly on to tomorrow and it’s stupidly long TTT!
The Route
Long, rolling Team Time Trial that will have a massive impact on the rest of the race.
Profile once again provided by @LasterketaBurua. Although in TT and TTT tradition, I feel that I need to make my own one on Strava! So here it is, you can view it here too, for those that like something more interactive.
Although I somehow seemed to have gained an extra kilometre out on course compared to the official distance. I think I may have made the start/finish line ever so slightly further up the road, oh well!
The course is populated with lots of short climbs and fast descents, with rolling terrain in between. The climbs aren’t overly tough, with most of them being 1-2km and averaging 2-3%, but on a TT bike that will take its toll.
The hardest ascents they’ll face are; the Carretera Del Veïnat De Deri Climb which averages 6% for 1.4kms; the Repetxo Orfes (1.4km at 3.7%); and the Esponellà-Martís (1.9km at 4.1%).
I’m very intrigued to see how the riders deal with the Carretera, considering it has ramps of over 15% and comes within the first 10kms of the stage. You don’t want the climbers blowing the rouleurs’ gasket already!
The finish line does kick up at the end but at only around 2% for a couple of hundred metres.
Contenders
Pffft, it’s hard to tell.
We hardly ever get TTTs of this length throughout the season, I mean, the World Championships in the past two years have been shorter!
BMC will be hoping to pick up from where they left off in Tirreno.
They were exceptional in that race but they don’t have their strongest team here, substituting out a few of the big guys for some climbers. On this terrain that may help but I think it will hinder them more than it will benefit them. Nonetheless, they still can’t be discounted. Watching them doing a TTT is like poetry in motion!
Sky will be lamenting me putting the curse on them for the Tirreno TTT and their wheels literally falling off that effort. They have an incredibly strong squad with them for the mountains and some very strong TT engines. The hilly parcour certainly helps the likes of Landa and Nieve who aren’t the best time trial riders. They should podium, if not win, and put their crack squad of climbers in a great position before the mountain stages.
Movistar always perform well in TTTs in Spain. They were beaten by less than a second by Sky in the Vuelta TTT last year. With Castroviejo in their team they have massive talent but the rest of the squad looks a bit thin in comparison to the one that they took to Tirreno. Will home advantage overcome that? They also have the benefit of being the last GC team down the start ramp.
The words “Team Time Trial” would normally bring smiles to the bosses at Quickstep, but they have a very weak team compared to their top riders. I fear Dan Martin might lose a fair bit of time.
The same can be said for Trek, who on paper have some good time trialists but they aren’t notoriously a good TTT outfit. Contador and Mollema will be playing catch-up the rest of this week, which should make for exciting racing at least!
One team aside from the Big 3 favourites that I do like for this TTT are OricaScott. The Aussie team used to be the par excellence for this discipline but they lost their way. However, they recently seemed to have managed to their fortunes around and have a very strong all-round squad with them here. I’m expecting to be pleasantly surprised by them!
Prediction
It will be tough to beat one of the Big 3 and I would actually favour TeamSky out of the trio. I do think that Orica can manage a podium spot if not better!
Betting
No value in the top of the order. Orica do offer a good option.
1pt EW Orica @25/1 with Bet365 (They’re offering 5th odds for 3 places – would take down to 20s)
Plus this H2H treble 3pts on @ 2.83/1 (would take down to 2.2/1)
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win this stupidly long TTT stage? Anyway,
Unfortunately I’ve been away for a family birthday this weekend so haven’t managed to write a full GC preview out. Nonetheless, here are a few short words on the matter.
The TTT will have a massive impact on the overall and will shape how the rest of the week is raced; there will be large time gaps. BMC will be hoping to put TVG and Dennis in a good position for the week ahead, but I don’t think they’ll have it all their own way.
Valverde returns from illness and he’ll be hoping to continue his fine form, he loves racing in his home country!
Contador will be looking to overcome ParisNice heartbreak but I think he might be a bit too tired because of that race. Then again, he could easily surprise!
And what about Froome and Team Sky? They should put in a decent TT and with their exceptional crack squad of climbers i’ll be very surprised if they don’t have someone on the podium at the end of the race. Froome hasn’t performed at this race in the past, but Thomas (who’s also here) looked good on his return from South Africa so you never know…
However, I actually think Sky have a better GC option here in the form of MikelLanda. The Spaniard has had a relatively quiet start to the season but he should find the steep gradients of the mountains here to his liking. After Thomas’ good Tirreno, he needs to remind the Sky bosses he is capable of leading the team at the Giro.
Right, now that’s out of the way, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders on the first day.
The Route
Not exactly an easy stage to start off with but it sets the tone for the week ahead!
We’ve had a similar stage to start the race off with for the past few editions, but each time the route has been ever so slightly tweaked. This year, there is more emphasis on climbing in the first half of the stage which has resulted in a total of 5 categorised climbs on the day!
The day could be shaped on the 4.3km long, 6.9% average, Alt El Muntanya. As after we crest the peak of that climb, we begin the Coliformic almost straight away. If a team wants to, they could really turn the screw here and make the day a very hard one.
Over the summit, we’ll have 55km left which will mostly be descending. However, this will be broken up by the short but testing Alt de Collsacreu (2.5km at 5.2%). Will we see some attackers try to get away from the peloton here?
The road does rise to the line but nothing too severe and it shouldn’t have an impact on the result at the end of the day.
How will the stage pan out?
Over the past few years we’ve had breaks make it, late attackers, small sprints and relatively large sprints at the finish so who knows.
But with the parcours being harder this year and there being only two top-tier sprinters here (Bouhanni and Greipel) I think it will be unlikely that we’ll see a full bunch gallop. So that’s one of the 4 options gone anyway!
As for the others, a break winning looks least likely although not improbable, so I’ll strike that off the list as well. That leaves us with either a late attack sticking or some kind of small bunch sprint.
Late Attackers
We saw several attacks in the closing kilometres of last year’s stage, but they were fruitless in the end and we had a big bunch sprint. However, with a peloton that’s bound to be more tired after the tougher route on offer this year, the chance of a late attack sticking does increase. Your guess is as good as mine as to who might try and make a move but I’ll through a few names into the hat.
Peter Kennaugh.
He’s tried similar attacks in other races, with varying success but his wins in Cadel’s Race (2016) and a Dauphiné stage in 2015 come to mind. On both of those days, there was a lull in the action at the front of the peloton and Kennaugh sensed the opportunity to attack. Something like that may well happen tomorrow!
Tobias Ludvigsson.
Are you bored of me mentioning him at least 5 times already this season and it’s only March?! FDJ are without a GC rider for this race so I’m sure the team will be told to be as attacking as possible. The Swede should manage the climbs unless if one of the GC contenders calls for arms. He can use his TT prowess to make it to the line!
“Sprinters”
With Greipel and Bouhanni very unlikely to make the finish and some other fast men to boot, it’s probably unfair to call those left sprinters. They’re more puncheurs!
It’s hard to tell who will be left at the end though. Will someone like Sbaragli or Impey make the finish? Or will it be guys more along the lines of Alaphilippe and Valverde contesting the finish?
I think it could be the latter.
Alaphilippe obviously has a great chance after his 3rd place in MSR yesterday. He’s finished well here in the past (3rd in 2014) but will he be tired from Saturday’s big hit-out?
Valverde will have a great chance in a sprint like this. The Spaniard is one of the best all-rounders in the world and has arguably the best final kick after a tough day of climbing. Has he recovered from his illness that saw him pull out of Paris Nice?
Away from those two there are another few I’d like to mention.
Arthur Vichot.
The French champion has had a wonderful start to the year, finishing in the top 10 of every race/stage that he has finished! Having not raced for almost a month it will be interesting to see where his form is, but he certainly isn’t one to be discounted. My only concern with him is that none of his 12 professional victories have came outside of France.
Jarlinson Pantano.
Alberto Contador’s pilot fish in Paris Nice, the Colombian seems to be in exceptional form at the moment and will manage the climbs with ease. He packs a fairly good kick after a tough day and with Trek not bringing Felline with them, I imagine he’ll be their man.
Nathan Haas.
The Aussie was one of the riders of the early season, picking up two top 10 GC placings in stage races. He’s taken it a bit easier since, only racing one day (Strade) since the 19th of February. It will be interesting to see if he’s been able to maintain form since then. If Sbaragli hasn’t made it over the climbs, Haas will be the go-to sprinter for Dimension Data and a top 5 result is within his grasp.
Prediction
I think we’ll get quite an attritional day and maybe only a 50-60 rider peloton coming to the line together. I’ll go for a rider who’s in great form but hasn’t had the chance to go for his own result yet, JarlinsonPantano to take the win!
The third round of the Women’s World Tour returns this weekend with the Trofeo Alfredo Binda. It’s the oldest race in the WWT and normally provides some very exciting racing. Last year’s edition saw LizzieDeignan (then Armitstead) attacking on the final descent along with JolandaNeff, before out-sprinting the Swiss rider in the uphill drag to the line.
Neff was actually beaten to the line for second place by Armitstead’s team-mate, MeganGuarnier, who won the sprint out of the chasing group behind.
I expect we’ll see some more attacking and exciting racing this year so let’s take a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A tough parcours, with the road either going up or down for most of the day. There is no real respite!
Credit to @LasterketaBurua for the profile – much better than the official one!
The first half of the day will act as a leg softener but this race is all about the final circuit around Cittiglio itself.
The official profile of the circuit is a bit rubbish if I’m honest, so I’ve made a Strava profile of the circuit that you can view here.
Even it has its limitations though and the dramatic wall before the Orino climb should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Isolating the climbs themselves, the Casalzuigno climb is 1.9km long, averaging 4.1% in gradient. However, that does include a reasonably long false-flat drag at the start.
As you can see, it kicks up at around 6.5% for the final 900m. Gaps can certainly be made here with some early attacks!
We then have a quick descent followed by a few kilometres of flat before the main test of the closing circuit, the Orino Climb.
At 2.7km long and averaging 4.8%, like the Casalzuigno climb, that does not tell the whole story. There are a few hundred metre stretches, especially around the hairpin turns, that average over 9%! No doubt the pure climbers will be trying something here to distance the all-rounders.
There’s then a fast 4km descent before the final run to the finish line, with the closing 500m averaging 3.6%. Will we get a tough sprint like last year?
Contenders
Back to back champion Deignan returns this year and will be hoping for a hat-trick of wins tomorrow. She’s only had one race day this year so far, a very respectable 3rd in Strade, so I’m intrigued to see if she’ll be up to full race speed as of yet! I remember reading an interview (can’t remember where – apologies!) in which she wanted a more gradual start to the season compared to 2016 where she burned herself out by the end of the Spring Classics. A good climber with a strong sprint after a tough day, if she is on form already then she will be tough to beat!
However, as per usual, Boels send an incredibly strong team to not only support her but with plenty of other options for the race victory. Their best alternative to Deignan looks like AnnavanderBreggen! After missing Strade through illness the Dutchwoman returned to racing last weekend, doing a lot of the hard work chasing for her team-mates. The parcours here suits her better than those races and being one of the best riders in the world, on one of the best teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her cross the line first!
The main danger for Boels will more than likely be the current leader of the Women’s World Tour: ElisaLongoBorghini. The Italian is local to this area and has won here before, back in 2013. Already in scintillating form this year with a win in Strade and a 4th place in Ronde van Drenthe, you wouldn’t put it past her winning again tomorrow. She’ll be brimming with confidence and I’d be willing to put my metaphorically owned house that she will finish in the top 5, barring any misfortune caused by a crash or mechanical! Borghini will be ably supported by new team-mate ClaudiaLichtenberg who could well feature herself at the pointy end of the race. More of a climber though, she would need to come to the finish solo.
Team Sunweb have arguably been the best performing squad of the season so far and the once again arrive at a race with a solid team. I imagine EllenVanDijk will be their leader as she has looked excellent this year so far. Unfortunate in Van Drenthe that Boels had their whole team pretty much to chase her down, she’ll be hoping to get a bit more leeway this race and solo to the line. Something that is certainly not a distant possibility! LeahKirchmann has had a quiet start to the year in comparison to her breakthrough 2016 season. However, as a good all-rounder, she can’t be discounted if the proper climbers don’t make inroads on the hills. Packing a fast kick, the Canadian will fancy her chances in a 15 rider bunch gallop.
Marianne Vos is the most successful rider in this race’s history, with three wins in total. She arrives here with a very strong team and in fact, she probably won’t be the teams outright leader. I imagine she’ll almost play a sandbagging type role, covering attacks and waiting for the sprint. Instead, I think it will be KatarzynaNiewiadoma who has the best chance for the WM3 team! The Pole was unlucky in Strade but was just beaten by the better rider on the day, although she still managed to finish a great second place. I’m sure she’ll want to exact some revenge over Longo Borghini in her home race!
Canyon SRAM arrive with AlenaAmialiusik as their leader. The Belarusian has finished 3rd/5th/5th in the past 3 editions so she certainly seems to go well at this race! She doesn’t have a great sprint so will need to arrive at the finish alone if she wants to win. One of her team-mates does have a good sprint after a tough day – ElenaCecchini. The Italian champion has finished in or around the top 10 in her last three appearances at this race but she has never made the front group. Although she’s climbing better than ever just now, I think like Kirchmann, she might want a group of 15 to arrive together.
You can never discount Orica pairing Garfoot and Van Vleuten, or FDJ’s Aussie SharaGillow.
One curveball of a rider I would like to highlight is Cervelo Bigla’s young Danish talent; CecilieUttrupLudwig.
She started the season off OK, but a breakthrough 9th place in Strade confirmed her talents. I mean, she was 9th at the European Champs and 10th at the Boels Rental Hills Classics last year so I guess it you could say it was coming! Following up from her great ride in Strade, she went on to take the overall title at the Setmana Ciclista Valenciana. She admits her main strength is climbing so it will be hard to win in a sprint but I will certainly be keeping an eye on her development this year.
Prediction
A tough race to call and having numbers in the final lap will be of a big advantage. I’ll go for a rider who is going to take some big wins this year, and having the most decorated female cyclist of her generation sandbagging behind certainly will help her here. KatarzynaNiewiadoma to win! She is fast enough to win a small sprint but also strong enough to ride away on the climbs.
Coverage
We are expected to get a live stream of the final 68km from 14:50 CET, that you can view here.
However, do be warned if last year’s stream is anything to go by then we might just get a studio show followed by a zoom-lens camera shot of the final straight. I hope that they’ve stepped their game up though!
Thanks for reading as always and as usual, any feedback/likes/shares is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? And will we see a solo winner or a small group sprint? I’ll have a lot of men’s previews on the site over the next few days but the next women’s preview will be Gent Wevelgem next Saturday. Anyway,
The first monument of the year and the longest race in the calendar returns this weekend; Milan -> Sanremo!
Like most MSR’s, last year’s edition built slowly to a climax, with the closing kilometre being exceptionally exciting.
We had Gaviria crashing, almost taking out Sagan and Cancellara if it was not for some incredible bike handling, but what else would you expect from that pair! That left the door open for some other riders and Roelandts opened up the sprint early which caught everyone off guard. Swift followed (finishing 2nd in the end), Bouhanni looked strong but had a mechanical and came home 4th. Instead, it was a rather dubious win for ArnaudDémare in the end after there were accusations he got a tow from the team car back to the peloton after a crash. Nonetheless, it was an impressive sprint from the Frenchman and with the way he is riding this season so far, he could well make it back to back wins!
Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A carbon copy of what we’ve had the past few years pretty much.
A real race of attrition, the peloton doesn’t get close to this distance in any other race. The extra 50km compared to some other monuments and almost 100km on normal stage-race stages really adds another element. The climbs of the Cipressa and the Poggio if taken alone aren’t difficult at all.
Yet, with them being the only place for the climbers and puncheurs to make a move they are always attacked at a ferocious pace. Plus, with 260km already in the legs, riders will be nervous as to how their body reacts.
We might see some long-range attacks on the Cipressa before the puncheurs try to break the hearts of the sprinters on the Poggio. It’s often a battle between attacking classics riders and the sprinter’s team-mates for control of the race. Once over the crest of the Poggio, it’s time for a daredevil descent into Sanremo itself.
Once off the descent we have roughly 2km of flat to the finish. There will no doubt be more attacks here as the riders regroup. Will the sprinters have enough team-mates left to chase and control the race? Or will we even see non-sprinters chase down other non-sprinters? Inadvertently helping the sprinters who are with them!
The famous finish along the via Roma awaits.
How will the race pan out?
Going off of recent trends, the race certainly seems to live up to its nickname of “The Sprinter’s Monument”.
In the last 5 years, the number of riders in the leading group at the finish has swelled; 2012 (3); 2013 (7); 2014 (25); 2015 (26); 2016 (31). Why is that?
Well, the removal of the “Le Manie” climb in 2014 swung the race back towards bunch gallops. Although it came around 100km from the finish, it sapped away at the sprinters legs a lot earlier and ensured that they tackled the climbs at the end of the race with a bit more fatigue. You could also argue that sprinters in general seem to have got better at climbing over the past few years, but I’m not sure the likes of Kittel will agree!
Oddly enough though, I do still think we’ll see one of the more attacking MSRs for a while. I’m not saying it won’t come down to a sprint in the end, but with so many puncheurs in great form coming into the race, I’m sure they won’t want to wait until the sprint to end up 6th-10th place. There will be a slight headwind when the riders turn onto the Poggio, but the majority of the climb will be a tailwind. Will this inspire the attackers?
If a select group can make it over the top of the Poggio and work well together then they can make it to the finish. However, the issue is that they have to co-operate, if not, then they have no chance.
I actually think someone like Sagan might attack on the Poggio.
The World Champion is clearly in scintillating form but I’m sure even he will be concerned with the quality of sprinters that can make it over the final climb if the pace isn’t too high. He is the one of the fastest men in the World after a tough day and I’m sure he’ll do everything in his powers to ensure that he has the best chance at winning the race. Being beaten by Gaviria in Tirreno this week gone by won’t have done his confidence much use, but I guess Sagan being Sagan, he doesn’t need any more confidence!
Another reason I think Sagan might not wait around for a sprint is that Bora also have the handy second card to play of SamBennett. The Irishman took a breakthrough and much deserved win in Paris-Nice, beating some of the fastest pure sprinters in the World. That impressed me, but what impressed me more was his intermediate sprint win the next day. “Eh?!” I can imagine you say, thinking I’ve clearly lost the plot. Well, that intermediate sprint came after the stage started with a Cat-1 climb and the peloton was only 60-riders strong over the top, with the likes of Demare being dropped. Not Bennett though, he was up there beating Matthews and Gilbert. He certainly seems to have found his climbing legs and the Poggio shouldn’t be a challenge for him! Which leads me on to the other sprinters here…
Sprinters
We have plenty of them here, with only Kittel, Greipel and Groenewegen being the notable absentees.
I’m not going to bore you with a little bit on each sprint option (plenty of others will cover them more succinctly and concisely), as I’m already close to the 1000 word mark and I have a few other scenarios/riders I want to cover. So like I’ve been doing quite a bit recently, I’m going to focus on one rider and he’s a selection that might surprise you!
Mark Cavendish.
The 2009 winner has had a relatively uninspiring but solid start to his 2017 season, picking up only one victory so far in Abu Dhabi. He wasn’t competitive at this race last year due to his Olympics build up, but will be hoping for better this year. Nonetheless, he looks like a tough rider to argue for, yet I’ll give it my best shot.
It’s his slow burning season that’s actually making me believe in his chances here. Before the Tour last year I had written him off as he didn’t seem to be having a great year and seemed past it. He went on to win 4 stages. Before the World Champs I ruled him out as he said he was ill in the week leading up to the event and had gone a bit off the boil post TDF, with only a 6th at Paris-Tours being a notable result. He went on to finish second. Really though, he should have won! He just chose the wrong wheel and got a bit boxed in. There is a recurring theme here; just when he seems to be out of it, he bags a result. The Manxman certainly knows how to peak for key targets. His recent performance in Tirreno fits the above agenda quite nicely and reminds me of a certain Irishman.
The above screenshot is from an interview in Rouleur magazine with Sean Kelly (view it here). Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Write off Cavendish at your peril this weekend!
Outsiders
There are plenty of puncheurs and classics riders I could highlight but I’m returning to Dimension Data for my second rider.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has long been a favourite of mine. The guy oozed class and talent on a bike and it’s a shame for him he’s around in the same era as the likes of Sagan and GVA as I feel he gets overlooked at times.
The Norwegian was on the attack here in the final kilometres last year and only a few managed to follow him. I expect something similar this year, even if Cavendish makes it over the top of the Poggio in the main group. He’s without a win this season but he has looked strong in Strade, bridging across to the front group on his own. Likewise, his two top 10 TT results indicate to me that he’s peaking a lot more slowly this year compared to his blistering start last season. He can win solo by attacking, or could take out a sprint win from a small group and I don’t think there would be many cycling fans out there who would begrudge a Boasson Hagen win!
My final rider is a proper outsider and one that I have mentioned a lot over the past week in Paris Nice; AlexeyLutsenko.
The Astana man has had a strong but fruitless start to the season. He was never outside the top 30 in Oman and finished a very respectable 11th in the tough TT during Paris Nice. The Kazakh outfit are without a top quality sprinter in their squad, but Lutsenko can certainly fill the void. Like EBH, he is capable of attacking late on in the race or challenging for the win in a very reduced sprint. He did win the U23 World’s in a very similar fashion! A talented rider who I think is going to have a very good season, a win here would certainly shock a few but not me. He will still need some luck to go his way, but who doesn’t here!
Prediction
A sprint is the most likely option but I think we’ll see a more attacking race this year and a move within the final 2km could well stick. He tried it last year and was unlucky to be marked out of it, but I think this year he might just make it with everyone else marking Sagan. BoassonHagen to take a memorable victory!
Betting
Cavendish 1pt EW @18/1 with Bet365 (Would take down to 14s available elsewhere)
Boasson Hagen 0.75pts EW @80/1 with Bet365 (Would take down to 50s)
Lutsenko 0.25pts EW @300/1 with PP/Bet365 (Would take down to 200s).
Thanks very much for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated as always. Who do you think is going to win La Classicissima? Will we see a sprint or a late attack stick? Anyway,
We got a sprint in the end and it was Gaviria who took the win, edging out Sagan.
A prelude for next weekend?
Cavendish was no where to be seen. He annoyingly only seems to do well when I’ve not picked him! Oh well, on to tomorrow’s final stage. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A fairly simple, pan-flat, 10km individual time trial.
Nothing challenging parcours wise for the riders, unless of course you’re a lightweight climber!
The course isn’t technical either, just a simple out and back pretty much, with only a few 90-degree turns thrown in.
It’s certainly one for the specialists and strong men of the peloton.
Weather
It should be a fairly sunny day with little chance of rain.
As you can see in the image above, it looks as if it is going to be a reasonably windy day on the Adriatic coast, with the wind speed picking up mostly around midday.
This will unfortunately hamper the early starters, because on an out-and-back course, the increased tailwind speed does not negate the increased head-wind speed. It’s the opposite in fact!
So if we do get the forecasted wind tomorrow, that should favour the late starters.
Contenders
We have two world-class time trial riders here at Tirreno.
Tom Dumoulin has started his season in imperious form and a good performance tomorrow could see him finish in the top 3 on GC of another stage race. A great TTer, I’m sure he would have preferred the course to be slightly longer and have a little climb in it somewhere. Nonetheless, as he proved at the Giro last year, he’s still no slouch over a short, flat route!
His biggest rival will be RohanDennis. I’ve been very impressed with the Aussie so far this race and he’s already sitting in a podium position, but I’m sure he’ll be aiming further up than the third he currently occupies. One of the best short TT riders in the World and to be honest, I would strongly argue that he is the best! He was flying as part of BMC’s TTT effort and I expect much of the same from him tomorrow.
Aside from those two, there are a plethora of riders who could duke it out for stage honours or a podium placing on the day at least.
Primoz Roglic almost beat Dumoulin in that Giro TT, missing out by less than a second, in what was a breakthrough performance for him. He seemed to struggle a bit in the TT at the Volta ao Algarve recently, so a transformation in to more of a GC rider may have hindered him in that respect. Nonetheless, he could still pull something out the bag!
Geraint Thomas could put in a shift here. The Sky rider has been in sensational form this Tirreno so far and I’m sure he’ll be ruing the awful TTT, otherwise he could well be close enough to Quintana to take the title. A bit inconsistent in the discipline recently, the shorter distance will suit the former track rider.
Jonathan Castroviejo won the TT in Algarve recently over a similar parcours, apart from that stage being ever so slightly longer. The Spaniard is a very good on flat TTs considering his slight nature and he is certainly a danger here if he’s still going well!
Ryan Mullen was going exceptionally well in Algarve and if it hadn’t been for an untimely mechanical, he may have been challenging for the win. He’s been rolling around here for the past few stages, poor form or one eye on tomorrow?
Matthias Brandle has been doing a fair bit of work on the front of the bunch for his team-mates this week, but like Mullen, he’s then rolled home on every stage. He was bitterly disappointed with his performance in Andalucia, but the course didn’t really suit him then. This flatter parcours does and he certainly has the abilities to sneak into the top 3.
Can everyone’s favourite Swede, TobiasLudvigsson step up and deliver a good result? Like others, he’s been doing a lot of good work for his team leaders and looked solid in the TTT. In Strade he looked particularly annoyed (smashed his handlebars) after a mechanical and long wait for the car forced him to abandon, so I think he must be in reasonable form. Finishing 9th in Andalucia with a dropped chain isn’t a bad result, but he’ll need to avoid crashing/bad luck for once if he’s to go well here!
There are several other riders in with a top 5 shout depending on their performance on the day; Durbridge; Kiryienka, Dowsett, VanEmden and Kung to name a few!
Prediction
The best short TTer in the World wins this!
Dennis is absolutely flying right now, his high GC placing is testament to that, and there is no one here who can match his speed over 10km. I always back him in time trials of this length and probably will continue to do so for a long time. Well, apart from when I picked him in the preview for Stage 2 of Eneco last year but didn’t put any money down.
I’m not letting that happen again. The beacons are lit, and Rohan will answer!
Betting
Another big day and the price is tight, was hoping for 7/4 at least, but yeah…
Dennis 7pts WIN @5/4 with Bet365 (would take evens)
Mullen 0.5pts EW @150/1 with Bet365 (paying 3 places at 1/4 odds, would take 80s)
Plus the 4-fold @5.69/1. 2pts on.
Thanks for reading as always! Can anyone stop Dennis or Dumoulin? And will we have a shake up at the top of the GC standings? There won’t be any previews on here for a few days but I’ll be back with MSR, the Women’s Trofeo Binda and Catalunya before the Belgian racing starts up again. Anyway,
An incredibly exciting stage, and I only managed to catch the final 40km. We had attacks from GC guys and one-day specialists but the peloton arrived at the finish climb together, well, what remained of it.
Much like Gary Lineker’s quote about football being “a simple game where 22 men-chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end, the Germans win.”
Cycling is a simple sport where 180 riders cycle for 5 hours and in the end, Sagan wins!
The World Champion clawed his way back to a group of GC favourites as they sat up and played games. Not exactly the best move by them! It was then academic as we got to the slight uphill sprint finish. Pinot and Roglic rounded out the podium.
What’s in store for the riders tomorrow? Let’s have a look.
The Route
A shorter day in the saddle, which I’m sure will please some tired riders.
We have a lot of undulating roads in the first three quarters of the stage but there is nothing too serious for the bunch to be concerned with.
A long period of flat with around 30km to go could see the end of the breakaway, and we then have one little test before the finish.
1.7km at 4.7% average could be challenging for the sprinters if they’re on a bad day, but you would expect them to hold on. However, the little descent then 500m section at 7.4% could be a great launchpad for an attack before we have a tricky and technical descent.
The pan-flat and almost dead straight finish may spell the end of any would be attackers though if the pack is organised behind.
How will the stage pan out?
Just like Natalie Imbruglia, I’m torn.
So this will be a split preview of sorts.
On paper, this should be a sprint with it being only the second opportunity all race for a bunch gallop to the line. With the sprinters close to peak condition for Milan San Remo, they should manage the final climb as it’s very similar to the Poggio. It does come a lot closer to the finish so the battle back to the front will be a lot more difficult if you slip to the back of the pack.
Yet, after a very tough two days the peloton might want to have an easier day in the saddle. Although saying that, with it being the last road stage of the race I’m sure we’ll see an attacking day. We only have four proper sprinters here that could contend at the finish in my opinion (Sagan, Cavendish, Gaviria, Viviani) so other teams may look to the breakaway as their best option for the day. Will the teams of the sprinters be willing to work on the front all day? That’s the million pound question. In his preview with @Cyclingmole (starts around 18:10 mark) Jay Thomson sounded fairly confident in a sprint, but will that have changed after the past two days?
I think if we get representation from at least two of the sprinters teams; Bora, Dimension Data, QuickStep and Sky, then the break will stay away.
Sprinters
As mentioned earlier, the 4 riders listed are a class above in a field like this and you would expect them to populate the top of the standings.
In a flat sprint you would have to favour Cavendish or Gaviria. The Dimension Data rider has a very strong team with him here, capable of delivering a very strong lead-out. His favourite pilot fish Mark Renshaw is here and they form a formidable duo. If the Manxman has recovered from his illness, he has a very good chance of winning this.
We don’t really know how well Gaviria may have gone on the opening sprint after he was held up in the crash. Like DD, Quickstep have a very good lead-out train here and no doubt they’ll be the two teams fighting for space at the head of the peloton. Having Boonen as a lead-out man isn’t that bad either! Gaviria has beaten Cavendish before and I’m sure he’d love to make a big statement before Milan San Remo.
You can never discount Sagan and the little hill close to the finish puts him more on terms with the other two. He clearly is motoring right now and a third stage win is not as unlikely as it seemed at the start of the race.
I’m still not convinced by Viviani this year. He did well to get up for second on stage 3 but he’s still without a win this year and I can’t see that changing here.
Breakaway Contenders
I’m going to pick two guys that were in the move today, plus another. All three are similar in style but ever so slightly different.
Steve Cummings.
He’s been relatively quiet this season so far, but the Brit presents the best opportunity for Dimension Data in the break. He’s exceptionally strong on the flat and short climbs and he is capable of time trialling his way to the line if he gets a gap. Of course, he’s also a good ploy later on in the race to attack if Cavendish isn’t feeling up for it. Cummings won a similar stage here last year, although the final climb was slightly tougher then.
Niki Terpstra.
I was pleasantly surprised to see Terpstra finish so far up the standings on stage 2. He is clearly building some nice form ahead of the cobbled classics. A rider in a similar mould to Cummings, although the Dutchman is probably better on the flat, he could find himself attacking the breakaway group near the end of the stage. Managing to hold on for the win.
Tim Wellens.
You can’t ignore a rider like Wellens for this stage. He is in scintillating form in this early part of the season, already picking up 3 wins. His third place in Strade highlights how versatile of a rider he is. After being involved in the crash on stage 3, he’s since lost a lot of time on GC but has been resting up at the back of the peloton, apart from a probing attack on today’s stage. With eyes on this stage maybe?
Prediction
If we get a sprint, I’ll go for Cavendish.
He has the best train here and will be hungry to prove that he is a danger for MSR!
If we get a break, I’ll go for Wellens.
Betting
Cavendish 1.3pts WIN @ 11/2 with Bet365
Terpstra 0.25pts WIN @
Cummings 0.35pts WIN @ 40/1 with Bet365
Wellens 0.35pts WIN @ 66/1 with Bet365
Thanks as always for reading! How do you think the stage will pan out? Could be a finely balanced day, but the teams never seem to be thinking along the same lines as I am. Anyway,
*Apologies, the late run time of today’s stage and the fact I need to have a snooze before work this evening means that both previews will be a lot shorter than normal.*
Today’s Recap
It’s all so obvious now, Porte takes the stage!
Contador managed to get up for second and a very determined DanMartin just edged out Henao for third on the day. That leaves the Colombian 30 seconds ahead of Martin, with Contador one second further back.
That changes the dynamic of how tomorrow will play out most likely, but first let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
The final stage of the year always seems to change between an open road stage around Nice, or a mountain TT with a finish up Col d’Eze. This year we have the former again.
A very short, but intense stage; with 32.1km out of the 115.5km going uphill!
The three cat-2s are not overly difficult so I can’t see the GC guys try anything here. Instead, we might see some action on the Côte de Peille. It’s certainly steep enough to try and get rid of some domestiques.
However, it may all come down to the Col d’Èze and the descent back to the finish line. Officially the climb is 7.7km at 5.2%, but if you include the bit of false flat at the end, almost up to the intermediate sprint point, then it’s 9.7km at 5%.
The climb is quite deceptive if you just look at the average gradient. The first 3km rarely dips below 8% but this is then followed by a relatively easy 2km section, before it kicks up again, then finally flattening out at the top.
Most of the pros will have trained/raced up here several times so will know exactly what the climb is like, and their own strengths or weaknesses on it.
Once over the summit, we descend almost all the way to the finish line.
I wouldn’t expect that kicker to be much of an issue as the riders will already be carrying a lot of pace into it. Although it will most definitely slow them down!
The run-in itself is technical and a rider can lose contact if they’re not the most confident of descenders.
It will certainly be an interesting end to the stage if a group arrives together.
How will the stage pan out?
Before the the excitement at the end of today’s stage, tomorrow looked great for a breakaway. However, with things close on GC, especially between Contador and Martin, there is a very good chance we get another explosive day in the saddle.
The climbs aren’t too difficult bet there is still a chance of riders losing time and a reshuffling of the GC order.
Prediction
Yeah, as I said above, I don’t have enough time to go through everyone like I normally would instead I’ll just list one name.
I think IonIzagirre will win the stage. The Spaniard has been up there all week and barring misfortune on stage 1 he would very much be in the GC hunt right now. Aside from Porte and our current GC podium, he was the first one home today, on a stage that isn’t suited to his strengths. Whereas, tomorrow’s climbs look more up his street, but it’s the descent to the finish that looks perfect for him. This stage just reminds me of the breakaway win he took in the Tour last year. Being almost two minutes down, he’ll be given a bit of leeway by the other contenders and he could well pull off a Yates-style attack.
Vamos Ion!
Betting
1pt EW Izagirre @ 25/1 with Bet365 (would take 20s)
Thanks for reading as always, normal service should resume tomorrow! Anyway,
*Apologies, the late run time of today’s stage and the fact I need to have a snooze before work this evening means that both previews will be a lot shorter than normal.*
Today’s Recap
Quintana is just too good. Easy for the little Colombian in the end!
Thomas did very well to come second and has an outside chance at sneaking onto the podium at the end of the race now. Yates managed to take third on the stage which moves him up to second on GC.
Will we see some movement tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
Arguably a harder stage than the one we had today, mainly due to the relentless up and down nature of the route and is the stage I’ve been looking forward to most all week. Better not be a dud now!
Essentially the riders are either climbing or descending all day, it won’t be a relaxing day in the saddle.
I love the way this route is described in the road book – the “wall climbing stage”. If I’m being honest, I’m having difficulty locating profiles/climb lengths/gradients for some of the earlier climbs, so we’ll start off with the Capodarco at 30km to go. Although saying that, the first passage into Fermo (at 204m of altitude) is detailed in the second profile below.
2.5km long, it averages just a tad over 6% in gradient but pitches up to 18% at 400m to go. From there, we have a quick descent before the road heads upwards again, to near the finish line (I think?!).
Another fast descent follows before the riders reach the penultimate climb, well, climbs of the day.
The first part that tops out at I Capuccini averages 8.1% for 2.3km, but has ramps of 18% in places. There won’t be much time for recovery as the riders descend for 2kms before a 750 section at 11%. They’ll have already climbed this part, but they might be too tired to remember!
Roughly 4kms of descent follows before the road rises once again, but this time towards the finish, and oh boy, does it rise quickly.
The face an 800m wall that averages 14.3% to get things started. They then have some respite, well, a (roughly) 2km long section that averages 1.9%, before the road kicks up again in steps to the finish line, averaging 6.5% for the last kilometre. However, the riders will need to keep something left in the tank as the final 400m is 9.6% and you could easily be reduced to a crawl here.
This has everything in store to be a truly incredible day of bike racing!
How will the stage pan out?
Pffft, your guess is as good as mine!
A breakaway win is a possibility, a proper GC day is a possibility, and so is a win for the puncheurs and one-day specialists.
However, with the gaps still being close on the overall classification, I think we’ll see some kind of GC action tomorrow.
Prediction
Again, apologies for this being shorter but I don’t have the time to do my regular elongated posts of drivel! So just like Paris Nice, I’ll give one name.
Geraint Thomas.
The Sky rider was exceptional today and has a real chance of finishing upon the podium. His confidence will certainly be buoyed! He’s a great one-day racer and this type of parcours looks good for him, although maybe a little bit too steep in some parts. Being further down on GC, still, he may be given some leeway as the Movistar riders mark those closer to Quintana. I simply cannot ignore the Welshman’s form anymore!
Betting
Thomas too short for my liking. I thought this other rider would have been shorter, and he should cope with the climbs well enough. Not a GC threat etc…
1pt EW Felline @28/1 with Bet365 (would take 15s)
Apologies again for the briefness of this one, but as always thanks for reading! Hopefully normal service should be resumed tomorrow. Anyway,
A hectic finish that was tough but maybe not as tough as I imagined. I have to apologise as I thought it was a slightly different finish to that of last year but it was exactly the same, doing too many previews for my own good! Or that’s my excuse anyway. 😉
Anyway, it was PeterSagan who took a dominate sprint win, ahead of Viviani and Debuscherre.
It was a really, really weird top 10 as a crash behind took out or at least severely hindered some of the favourites for the day.
Nonetheless, let’s have a look ahead at what the riders can expect tomorrow.
The Route
A tough GC day and an ascent of the famous Terminillo.
The opening part of the stage really acts as a prelude, this is all about the final climb.
It’s a very similar climb to the one we’ll see in Paris Nice but is made harder in my opinion by the irregularity of it. Most of the climb is close to 8%, but there are a few kilometres that are roughly 4% and this lowers the average gradient quite a bit. The top of the climb does “flatten out” so if riders arrive together we might see some kind of sprint, but I can’t see that happening.
Weather Watch
Oh boy, looks a bit nippy out there!
Weather forecast for Terminillo (Source: Accuweather)
That real feel of -5°C looks like a real killer. Especially when you consider the strong winds forecast and the finish tomorrow looks horrible. The wind will more than likely be a cross-head for most of the climb so it might nullify some of the attacking we could see, which would be a real shame. Conversely though, once you lose the wheel it will be hard to get back on!
How will the stage pan out?
There is a chance we could see the breakaway go all the way. This will only happen if the riders in the peloton are fearful of what might happen on the Terminillo and they don’t want to chase all day.
However, I do think we will see some type of GC battle on the Terminillo. There in theory should be enough firepower and motivation behind to close down the break and set up the overall contenders to battle it out for bonus seconds and more!
Contenders
Nairo Quintana has to start as the clear favourite. After being marked out of the competition in Abu Dhabi he’ll be here to exact revenge. Movistar brought a crack TTT squad with them to put him in the best possible GC position going into this stage and they’ll expect him to deliver. He won a truly epic stage in the snow at this race back in 2015 and a repeat of that feat is more than on the cards!
Who can challenge him?
Honestly, no one in my opinion. Everyone else will more than likely be fighting for second place unless there is some crazy tactical battle or Nairo pops.
Geraint Thomas looked very strong on his way to the win on stage 2. This climb is a completely different beast but given his immediate lack of a GC threat he is a rider who could squirrel away from the bunch. As I said in my overall preview for this race, I think he’s going very well at the moment and is a genuine threat for a podium in the Giro. A good result tomorrow would go a long way to solidifying that thought.
Of course, his Team Sky team-mates Landa or Rosa may also profit from the awful TTT and be given some freedom. They both have the abilities to do well here and are naturally better climbers than Thomas. If one of them manages to get a 30 second gap on Terminillo they could be tough to bring back.
Thibaut Pinot, much like his wine namesake, prefers the temperature cooler. He often seems to struggle when things get toasty, so a day in the cold, wet break of Strade Bianche will have set him up nicely for this stage. He is clearly going well in this early part of the season. Anyone who beat Contador in Valenciana is going strongly!
Vincenzo Nibali normally copes well in awful conditions but his own personal condition is a bit unknown. He’s gone better at the start of this year than he has done in the past, but does that mean that he is capable of finishing on the podium here?
BMC will be looking to hold onto the GC lead with TejayVanGarderen but it will be tough. The American had a difficult Abu Dhabi, struggling with illness, but has arrived here as their GC leader. He seems to struggle in poor conditions at times and I fear that may be the same outcome for him tomorrow.
The rider who finished second to Quintana in 2015 on this stage is here again. BaukeMollema will have been disappointed with his team’s TTT but a good performance here puts him back in contention for the overall podium. He’s a real slogger, so to say, and will certainly give it his all.
Tom Dumoulin appears to have started this season in great form and I’m sure he’ll be up there again tomorrow but it’s just the length of the climb that worries me with him.
Fabio Aru has been relatively attentive at the front of the bunch in the past two finishes, not wanting to lose any time in splits. He’s started his season solidly with a third and eighth GC placings in his first two stage races. His time trial on the final stage will most certainly let him down, so he needs to make the most of his good climbing legs tomorrow, if he has them!
AdamYates will want to try to replicate what his brother managed today in Paris Nice. Finishing 7th in 2015, two years stronger now and a 4th place finisher at the Tour, he certainly has a chance of getting a better result this time round. His win in Industria last Sunday certainly was very impressive!
Rui Costa is the form rider of the season so far, but I think a good result here will be a step too far. Yet again though, after a poor TTT like many others, he has a chance of being gifted a bit of freedom.
Rafal Majka is another who could be gifted some freedom. The Polish rider is one of the more under-appreciated climbers in the peloton and this long slog looks as if it will suit him!
Prediction
The GC field in this edition is a lot stronger than when Quintana last won here in 2015. However, barring some kind of miracle I feel we might get the same result. Do I believe in miracles? No, but I do believe in outsiders and crazy things happening! Team Sky to profit from having three strong guys but not considered GC threats, yet. I’ll give Rosa another chance!
Or Quintana just wins by 30 seconds…
Betting
Rosa 1pt EW @ 25/1 with Bet365.
You might get better as more places price up later on but I don’t have the time to be waiting around!
Thanks for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win? Can anyone stop Nairo? Anyway,
A rather exciting stage and we saw a GC showdown up to the finish in Fayence. It was SimonYates who took advantage of his lower overall position, attacking over the top of the penultimate climb of the day, managing to hold on to the finish.
Behind, Henao attacked and cracked Alaphilippe, with Porte returning to some form to take third place behind the Colombian. It leaves the GC nicely poised and we should be in for an exciting stage tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
The penultimate day and the Queen stage of the race!
Two big climbs in the final 50km will be the main focal point of the day as the first two ascents of the day come way too far from the finish to be a launchpad.
The Col Saint-Martin will start off the GC proceedings.
Officially 7.5km at 7.2% in gradient, the climb is long enough to stretch things out. Well, that is when you consider that the road actually rises for a long time before we get to the official start of the climb.
Instead, the full length of the climb is 20.4km long and averages a very solid 4.2% gradient. You can view the Strava segment here. If a couple of teams co-operate here, they really could put the hurt on Alaphilippe and try to isolate him.
Once over the summit we have a long descent followed by some valley roads before we start the final climb of the day; the Col de la Couillole.
A long and steady climb, it barely goes below 6.5% or above 7.5% in gradient. If the pace has been injected on the previous climb, it is very possible for a GC rider to pop here and lose a lot of time.
How will the stage pan out?
I thought today may have been a breakaway stage, with the finish potentially suiting Alaphilippe I wasn’t confident of other teams bringing the escapees back. I’ve had tomorrow marked down as a GC day for the majority of the week and today’s showing makes me think we’ll see a GC rider win the stage tomorrow too.
Watch it be a breakaway win now…
Contenders
Sergio Henao certainly looked one of the strongest today and Team Sky seem up for a fight for the GC title. My suspicions about the Colombian building some form at home over the past few weeks seem to be correct and he is now Alaphilippe’s main GC rival. The long climbs up to altitude will certainly suit him and with a very strong support team they are dangerous. I expect them to keep the break in check all day, then really ramp the pace up on the Col Saint-Martin. Henao’s point of attack will be interesting. Will he go early on the Saint-Martin, hoping to find some allies, or will he wait and leave it all for the final climb? The way he seemed to open up a gap today over Alaphilippe on a finish that suited the Frenchman more, I think Henao might just be confident enough to wait until that final climb.
One man who is sure to take it up early is AlbertoContador. The Spaniard tried something today along with Henao but was quickly marked by Dan Martin. He struggled on the final slopes today but it was not a climb that really suited him whereas tomorrow’s long, steadier ascents do. He looked sprightly on the lower slopes of Mont Brouilly where we get similar gradients to that we’ll get tomorrow. You can’t forget how well he was climbing in Valenciana and following Quintana for fun in Abu Dhabi. Not being an immediate threat on the GC, he may just be given some leeway.
If Contador is not an immediate threat on GC, then RichiePorte is not an immediate threat on next year’s GC! The Aussie finds himself way down on the overall but seemed bullish and up for the fight today. Again, like Contador, Porte is not suited to the short punchy climbs and tomorrow’s 7% stuff looks great for him. If he’s climbing anywhere close to his form in the Tour Down Under he certainly has a chance of a stage win, which will certainly boost his morale!
After his stage win today, SimonYates could well go on to bag another tomorrow. He’s in a similar GC position to Contador and those two may form a very exciting, attacking duo. Will he have enough left in the tank for another assault tomorrow?
I’m intrigued to see how IlnurZakarin does on this stage. The Russian has slowly plodded along this race after disappointingly losing time on the opening day. He did an OK time-trial but not as good as some were expecting. Yet, he seemed to be coping alright on the climbs today so maybe that was just a blip. He looked very impressive in Abu Dhabi, chasing down Rui Costa and will be looking for a similar performance on stage 7!
Izagirre and Barguil might try to utilise their lowly GC positions to their advantage but they haven’t looked great so far in this race.
Prediction
We’ll get a crazy final half to the stage with a few long-range probing attacks. Alaphilippe will only initially need to follow Henao and Gallopin and that will benefit those further down on GC. Henao may well bridge up to others, but I fancy AlbertoContador to take the stage. He will have been very disappointed after a poor first stage, considering this was his first main goal of the season. The way he climbed in Valenciana and the effortless nature he followed Quintana was incredibly impressive. El Pistolero will fire a warning shot that he’s not dead and buried yet!
Although I do think it will be very close between him and Henao, with the Colombian moving into the GC lead after the stage.
Betting
Normally I wouldn’t back GC riders for a stage like this but…
2pts WIN on Contador @ 9/2 with BEt365.
Also,
4pts WIN on Henao for GC at 9/4 with PaddyPower
Thanks again for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will someone further down on GC benefit or will Henao make his mark? Anyway,
MyTwoSpokesWorth 