Today’s recap

Three from three for Lotto and a second stage win for the Gorilla, who produced another great power sprint.

I thought our pick of Modolo had it as he peeled off the front around the final corner. However, he had went too early and Greipel moved past him with relative ease. It was a shame that the forecast was off and there was no rain, I really think Modolo would have won in those conditions. But with the likelihood of crashes, for the riders safety, it was probably the best thing!

The break was never really given a chance but I managed to get Koshovoy in it. Good signs for the coming weeks with the lottery picks.

The Route

Tomorrow’s stage is one that fans have been looking forward to since the route was announced as we cover the famous Strade Bianchi (White Roads) of Tuscany.

The stage isn’t as tough in terms of the amount of climbing metres than the past few days, with large segments of flat.

“The stage course rolls along wavy roads, with a few narrower sectors while crossing urban areas, all the way up to Indicatore (intermediate sprint) and Arezzo. Next on the route, after a first pass over the finish line, is the Alpe di Poti climb, featuring 6.4 km on dirt roads, and doubledigit gradients. After clearing the KOM summit, the road drops quickly into Foce dello Scopetone and straight into the finish.” (Road book extract) 

The first categorised climb comes after 115km, with the ascent up the Passo di Scheggia. There is no official profile (again) in the RoadBook, but it doesn’t look to be that difficult a climb. I’ve managed to find a profile here.

As you can see, it’s a fairly easy climb for the big GC guys and the majority of the bunch will be able to make it over together. Once over Scheggia there is a quick descent and a long flat section, crossing the finish line in Arezzo, leaving the town to head for the Alpe di Poti.

As you can see, the most gruelling part of the climb in terms of gradient comes right at the start, with a 3km section averaging 9.1%. The whole climb itself is 8.6km in length averaging 6.6% with a section of 14.4%. If you want a more interactive profile, then click here for a Strava link.

The most exciting part for us the viewers however, is the white roads that feature for the majority of the climb. We normally only get to see these roads once a year at the rather simply named, Strade Bianchi race. The last time the Giro used similar roads was back in 2010 when Cadel Evans put his mountain bike background to good use, winning stage 6. However, it must be noted that more of the Strade were used that year than this edition’s stage sets to use.

Once over the top the riders face a fast descent but on wide roads, so it doesn’t appear to be too technical.

“After the flamme rouge, the route takes two right-hand bends on wide roundabouts, and passes under a mediaeval gateway. A short and steep climb (first on asphalt road, and then on stone-slab paving) leads to the home straight (200 m), still slightly uphill (approx. 5%), on 6-m wide stone-slab paving” (RB Extract)

Weather Watch

Most cycling fans will have been praying for rain for this stage, whereas the majority of the riders will have been hoping for sunny-skies. It looks like the cycling gods have sided with the Tifosi for tomorrow!

Not much rain forecast, but it should at least make the white gravel roads turn into a white mud!

Some of the riders will absolutely love the look of this, others will be less enthusiastic, to say the least.

According to worldweatheronline it looks set to be raining even heavier in Arezzo. With the finish line not being so far away from the climb, I’d say average out the two weather forecasts. Either way, it looks like we’re going to get some rainfall and damp roads.

This will make the climb up the white roads even more difficult. It will be a case of most riders having to sit in the saddle so as to maintain traction. Although if it gets really muddy then putting too much weight over the back could result in them spinning their tyres and wasting energy.

All is set for an exciting stage!

 

How will the stage pan out?

This is a really tough stage to call.

With the lack of a KOM point early on in the stage, we should actually see a break get away nice and early tomorrow. As long as Nippo Vini Fantini get someone in it, surely they can’t mess up again?!

However, as a lot of teams will think the break will contest the stage win, it could be some time until it goes clear.

The composition of the breakaway again will be key for its success. It will need a mixture of strong rouleurs and good climbers to build up an advantage. Again, look to those far down on GC for potential candidates.

I think the break has a very good chance of making it tomorrow. With the type of finale that we have, the only way that it won’t stay away to the finish is if a GC team really fancies their rider’s chances.

The problem is, I think quite a few of the riders might. The final kick up into Arezzo suits someone like Valverde down to the ground. Therefore, Moivstar might chase. The same can be said for Ulissi. The difficulty for Ulissi will be getting over the climb. He has gone well at SB before, finishing 7th this year, so he knows the white roads well.

Nibali felt a bit mugged the other day and there’s a good chance that Astana could chase the break.

The one saving grace for the break is that I don’t think we’ll see Giant doing any proper work. Dumoulin was complaining earlier about the fast pace Nippo set at the start of the day and it sounds like his team is tired. Therefore, on balance I favour the break to make it all the way tomorrow!

I split it 75% break makes it, 25% GC battle.

Who are the Breakaway candidates?

Who’s been eating all of their KitKats then?!

As mentioned above, look to those far enough down on GC not to worry any of the overall contenders. Anyone who’s over 10 minutes down should be fine. That just leaves the 146 riders to pick from then… XD

They have to climb well so that at least removes a few. Although the issue is then getting in the break, because it will no doubt be a frenetic start to the day again.

Some example riders are De Marchi, Vanendert, Herrada, Pozzato etc.

 

My breakaway lottery picks of choice are going to be Zoidl, Serry and Mohoric. I have no real reasoning apart from that they’re solid climbers and good on the flat.

Prediction

I say a breakaway makes it.

Then it’s just a case of being lucky with who makes it.

Zoidl was climbing very well in the Tour of Croatia, winning the Queen stage. He hasn’t been great so far at the Giro, but I’m going to presume (and hope) that he has been saving his legs for stage hunting.

Betting

Zoidl 125/1 0.2pt EW (PP)

Serry 100/1 0.2pt EW (Coral)

Mohoric 125/1 0.2pt EW (365)

Again, keep an eye out for other bookies, you might get a better price.

Small stakes only tomorrow and I’ll maybe go in-play depending how the stage is going.

I’ll more than likely tweet out another couple of breakaway picks later, so keep an eye out for that!

Hopefully the stage lives up to the high expectations and is remembered as a classic. I won’t be watching unfortunately so I’ll tune in later on and watch a re-run, I might tweet out something in-play if it looks like it’s going to be a GC battle. Nonetheless, enjoy it wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Two in two for Lotto Soudal, with one of Tim Wellens’ long-range attacks finally paying off! Nice to see, he deserves it for his attacking intent. He’s certainly a fan-favourite.

As for the GC riders, a danger-man I highlighted yesterday, Fuglsang, attacked and was quickly caught by our 300/1 man Siutsou. They rode away from the peloton but were slowly brought back by the work of Movistar who realised that Valverde might have a chance to sprint for bonus seconds. However, Nibali launched a big attack but that was covered by Roche. Just as the peloton bridged back to Nibali; Dumoulin, Zakarin and Pozzovivo attacked. Nobody followed. They caught up with Fuglsang and Siutsou just under the Flamme Rouge, with a strong Fuglsang out-sprinting Zakarin for second place. Siutsou came home in a good, but annoying 5th place. Not good enough for any payout! Brambilla ended up doing a lot of work on the front of the peloton to help Jungels, and Firsanov finished in an OK 12th. Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

Another long day with 211km being covered in total. It’s also another tough rolling start to the day, with an early Cat 2 climb to wake the riders up. Rather them than me!

After the summit it’s a mixture of climbing and descending for the next 130km or so, until we get to the bottom of the valley before the Cat 4 climb of Valico della Somma.

There’s no official profile of the climb, but going off of the Strava segment above, and using this handy calculator, I make it out to be 14.5km long with an average gradient of 3.5%. Some of the sprinters will not appreciate that! However, it really kicks up in the final 4kms, where it averages 6.9%. If the sprinters didn’t like the start of the climb, then they’re going to despise that section.

The saving grace for the sprinters, is the 40km of descending and flat to the finish line after the summit. If they get distanced a little bit, with the support of some team-mates they should manage to get back to the front of the race. Nonetheless, if the pace is pushed on by those sprinters who can climb then I don’t think we’ll see the proper big guys until the end.

The finale itself is a very tricky one, with a few sharp turns in the last 2km. Things could and most likely will get dicey if we get a sprint.

Weather Watch

Looks like it’s set to be a pretty miserable day in the peloton, with it set to be raining in Foligno for the arrival of the riders.

It looks colder than the past few days, but it’s nothing too severe. One thing that could cause an interest in the peloton throughout the stage is the direction of the wind. It looks to mostly be coming from the South or South-SouthWest. This creates the possibility for some crosswind action.

As you can see on the route-map above, there is a chance for crosswinds early in the stage if a few teams want to take it up. Whereas, in the final 55km it looks set to be predominantly a tailwind, although slightly cross-tailwind. This will help to keep the pace high. It could increase the chances of a break staying away, but it will also make it harder for anyone dropped from the peloton to catch up, as the bunch will more likely be going at a faster pace.

Who are the stage favourites?

The most likely outcome of Stage 7 is that it will end up in a sprint of some sort, possibly the whole bunch, but I think we’ll see a few riders dropped before the finale.

I don’t think we’ll see either of the two sprint stage winners take part in this one. Kittel seems to have been suffering a bit recently and I’m not sure he’ll make it over that final climb. Or if he does make it over, I think it will have taken a lot out of him. Whereas, I’m sure Greipel will make the finale, but he goes missing when the sprints get messy/very technical and I’ll think he’ll do the same tomorrow. It isn’t worth the risk of injury for him, he already has his stage win.

Therefore, I think we’ll see a battle between Modolo, Demare and Nizzolo, with Hofland not too far behind. I would normally include Viviani in that group, but he’s been indifferent so far this Giro and I’m not sure he’ll be on his best form tomorrow.

Of those teams, it seems that Demare has the longest and best lead-out and he’s the most consistent performer so far, leading the Maglia Rossa competition if we discount Kittel.

Nizzolo has dissapointed so far, he hasn’t really gotten involved at all and his sprint train has been pretty poor. In contrast, I have been impressed by Hofland who seems to have gotten his speed back and has produced good results even though he doesn’t have a proper train. This will most likely be his downfall in this stage.

For this stage though, I really like the look of Modolo.

As alluded to above, he has all the credentials to go well here. He’s an excellent bike handler and that dodgy looking final kilometre looks like it suits him down to the ground. In Ferrari he has an exceptional lead-out man. Ferrari is capable of bringing Modolo up to the front at just the right time, either doing a pull himself, or dropping him on second wheel. In tomorrow’s sprint I think we’ll see the former, with Ferrari leading Modolo out in the closing few hundred metres. I think he’ll bring him up just before that final turn. We saw something very similar at the Tour of Turkey a few weeks ago (watch the video here) and I expect much of the same on this stage.

So it’s a nailed-on sprint then?

Not entirely in my opinion. A sprint is the most likely outcome, but after a tough stage today and the rolling terrain tomorrow. I would not be overly surprised if we see the break of the day go on and make it. For this to happen a couple of things need to fall into place. Firstly, there has to be several Italians in it, and secondly there has to be representation from the majority of the big sprint teams.

We could possibly see the biggest break of the Giro so far tomorrow, with maybe 8 riders or so (maybe more?!) going up the road.

Candidates for the break have to be far down on GC, but be able to climb reasonably well to cope with the bumpy terrain. Look to those who rolled in far down on the stage today, riders like; De Marchi, Kuznetsov, Tjallingi, Bettiol etc.

I mentioned my picks for the breakaway lottery on Twitter earlier…

It will be interesting to see when the break forms and how strong it is. We’ll be able to tell from an early stage if it has a good chance of surviving or not!

Prediction

I’m going to have to take two predictions again, if we get a sprint (I’m 65% sure we do) then I can’t really look past Modolo for this. I always like to back him on this type of finish and he usually doesn’t disappoint!

However, if we do get a break make it to the finish line then I think someone like Simon Clarke has the credentials to go on and win. He was going well at the start of the season but is here to work for Uran mainly, but could get a bit of freedom tomorrow. He packs a good sprint from a very small bunch as well.

Betting

Modolo @ 12/1, 1.1pt EW

Koshevoy @ 300/1, 0.1pt Ew

Clarke @ 300/1, 0.1pt Ew

Zoidl @ 300/1, 0.1pt EW

Txurukka @ 500/1, 0.1pt EW

I know most of the prices on the breakaway riders are gone, but seeing as I tweeted them out earlier, I’m still including them in the blog!

Modolo is definitely still value at the 12/1 you can get him at. I’m going to invest some more (that won’t be included in the blog).

Apologies for this being out a lot later than normal. I’m back home visiting from Uni so I spent some time with the family this evening and only started writing this at around 11pm.

Everything should be back to normal tomorrow! Once again, hope you enjoyed this preview. I’m grateful for any feedback, both positive or negative and any shares on social media would be fantastic. Enjoy the race wherever you’re watching it! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Another sprint, another German win but not from the rider that you’d expect!

Andre Greipel powered up the hill to the finish line, putting a gap over his sprint rivals that was reminiscent of Kittel’s stage wins back in the Netherlands. Demare got up for second, with Colbrelli snatching third ahead of a fading (but very impressive) Bob Jungels.

As for the blog picks of Rojas and Hansen. Not great. Again. I don’t want this to become a recurring habit!

Rojas hit the front just as the riders rode past the finish line for the first time and I knew that his chances were up…

Whereas, Hansen was roped into doing some work for the eventual winner and came home around 2 minutes down. I’m sure he’ll give it a go later on in the race!

 

The Route

Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage and our first mountain-top finish of the race. A short stage at only 157km the main focus being the two category-two climbs that the race will cover.

The first being the ascent up the Bocca Della Selva which comes fairly early on in the stage. This climb is the tougher of the two and some of the riders will be happy about its placement early on in the day. The reason I say this is that it will most likely not be rode up at any severe speed, we might even see some of the sprinters hold on over the top of it. This will all be dependant on when the break goes up the road though. If it goes from the gun then it will be an easy ascent, if not then we might see some riders really struggle here as the pace will be very high. I think we’ll get a nice early breakaway.

After this climb, there is a long descent and bit of flat before we reach three uncategorised bumps. As we’ve seen in previous days, these un-categorised bumps are more often than not very tough and we’ll see a reduction of the peloton here. Particularly over the last of the three and the penultimate climb of the day. This will mean that the peloton will be fairly small, around 60-80 riders at most when we reach the foothills of the final climb; Roccaraso (Aremogna).

As you can see, the climb goes up in steps, with the toughest gradient coming in the first half. It’s 17km long and averages a lowly 4.8% gradient.

The nature of the climb means that there won’t be many time gaps at the end of the day between GC favourites and they’ll all more than likely come home within around 10 seconds of each other, if that. I think we’ll get a reasonably large group (of around 15-20 riders) at the end either contesting a sprint, or for one late attacker to jump out the pack and steal glory.

 

Weather Watch

Looks set to be another good day in Italy. Although up to Roccaraso we might get a sprinkling of rain, but it doesn’t appear to be much and looks more likely to have already fallen by the time the riders reach the area.

Who are the favourites?

Alejandro Valverde has to start as the favourite for a stage like this, it looks tailor-made for the Spaniard. The ramp at the end of the stage suits his characteristics to a tee and he should be the fastest sprinter left at the business-end. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go on and win it, but I’m not convinced he will. The reason why I think he’ll struggle is the same reason why he struggled at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, everyone will look at him to do the work in the finale. However, the good thing with the profile of this finish is that he should have company from team-mates Amador and possibly Visconti, who he could rope into marking attacks.

Valverde won’t have it plain sailing either as he’ll have competition from the flying Italian Diego Ulissi and Maglia Rosa holder Tom Dumoulin who’ve both shown in the past two stages that they can pack a punch at the end of a stage. Both of these riders are very solid in the Ardennes and to find a potential winner here you have to look at someone with similar characteristics.

However, there is a chance that it won’t come down to a final sprint to the line. We saw this last year at the Vuelta, where Esteban Chaves managed to escape the favourites on the opening up-hill finishes. The smiling Colombian is here and he might try a similar move. I feel it will be to no avail though, as he’s a proven danger-man and the other GC favourites won’t let him get away so easily this time.

For someone to successfully get away they have to be not only in good form, but have to be regarded as not that much of a GC threat. Either that, or their main GC contender of a team-mate will still be in the bunch, creating opportunities for the “lesser” rider to attack.

There are several riders who fit this category that finished with the first-group on Stage 4 (showing good form); Brambilla, Firsanov, Roche, Preidler, Siutsou, Fuglsang, Formolo and Pirazzi. I would include Jungels in that list but with the Young Riders jersey on his back he’ll be more heavily marked. Taaramae isn’t included in that list either because of his crash today, although he seems to be OK.

In my opinion the biggest threats out of those riders are Brambilla, Firsanov, Roche and Fuglsang. They all should be given a bit of leeway as the main protagonists of the race look at each other, with Brambilla and Firsanov most likely being the riders given the greatest amount breathing space.

I would also be wary of Siutsou. The Belarusian hasn’t been climbing spectacularly recently but he seems to be more of an attacking rider at Dimension Data and is the type of rider to try to go from far out. Although, with a poor sprint, he’ll need to make the final few hundred metres alone.

Prediction

I don’t think a breakaway has any chance of survival tomorrow. With bonus seconds on the line, Movistar (Valverde), Lampre (Ulissi) and Giant (Dumoulin) will all probably contribute together to chase them down.

However, I think we won’t see any of them winning the stage tomorrow. Instead it will be one of the “lesser” riders that I’ve mentioned above.

Of those, I’d say Fuglsang and Roche are definitely the strongest climbers, which is both good and bad. Good, because it should be easier for them to escape, but bad, because they’ll be more heavily marked as they’re considered greater GC threats.

Therefore, I think it will be either Brambilla or Firsanov who goes on to take the win, either solo, or from a smallish bunch sprint, with the favourites coming in a few seconds down. Of the two, Brambilla has the best sprint so he could even win while trying to out-sprint Valverde and co. Consequently, he’s my pick for tomorrow.

 

It could end up being quite a dull stage tomorrow until the final climb, but hopefully we’ll see some attacks up it, and a Brambilla win! Enjoy wherever you’re watching it from. Anyway,

Those were MyTwoSpokesWorth

 

Today’s Recap

Back to Italy with a bang! Today’s racing lived up to all expectations, that’s for sure. The stage was harder than I expected and it turned out to be more of a GC battle than most presumed, with only 26 riders finishing within 10 seconds of the winner.

Diego Ulissi, a man I fancied to win a stage this Giro (was expecting it to be later on), and someone I mentioned could be a danger-man in the preview went on to take a wonderful solo victory. He managed to escape the group of attackers on the final climb and held on to his diminishing advantage on the run in.

As for the blog’s picks of Modolo and Roche, not so good, again. Not a fan of this rut that I’m in!

Covering the sprinter didn’t work out as the racing was incredibly fast and tough. Modolo was close to making it over with the elite group, however, he came home in the third group on the road. Annoyingly, he came in one place down on Nizzolo, which has scuppered the #25to1000 challenge.

As for Roche, he seemed to be the most attentive and best Sky rider: slowing down to help Landa back to the group. Unfortunately, he never made a late attack, but got up and sprinted to 10th place. Think he’ll go well later on in the race, keep an eye out for him.

The Route

Another rolling day in the saddle and a long one too. At 233km in length it’s the second longest stage of the whole Giro. Rated 2 stars difficulty by the organisers (today was rated 3 stars), it looks set to be another interesting day.

It seems to be the opposite of today, a tough start and an easier finish.

“This very long stage (233 km) winds its way mostly on fast-flow roads. The first part runs entirely uphill (with milder or harsher gradients), with constant undulations further on, up to 30 km remaining to the finish.” (Extract from the Giro Roadbook)

The organisers expect this to be a bunch sprint and that’s the most likely outcome that we’ll get. However, as we saw today, the uncategorised climbs can be as tough as the categorised ones. Therefore, I don’t think it will be plain sailing for the sprinters and their teams will have to work hard to ensure a sprint at the end.

It looks set to be a very interesting finale and it might tempt some of the puncheurs into a long-range attack and hope to fend of the sprinters.

As can be seen in the image above, the descent off the top of the finish is fairly technical. If someone gets a bit of a gap over the top then it might be hard to bring them back. The technical nature of it makes positioning even more important, so the strength of the sprint trains will be crucial, to ensure that their rider is near the front. The GC guys will also want to be near the front in case if there are any time gaps, they won’t want to be on the wrong end of a split! It’s probably going to be a messy run in and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few tumbles.

Weather Watch

The riders should again get near perfect conditions, with it looking to be another glorious day in the south of Italy. However, there is a small chance of rain during the stage but it only likes like scattered showers, nothing too bad!

Stage contenders

On paper this stage doesn’t look overly exciting, nailed on sprint for some. But, I can quite easily see it going 3 ways.

The most obvious (and probably most likely) is that we get a bunch sprint with all of the riders being there. With this being the last sprint stage for a little while, the teams won’t want to miss this opportunity and will control any break or attacks in the finale. A finish like this opens up the door for other riders and closes the gap between Kittel and everyone else. However, with his current form he still should start as clear favourite for this. Modolo and Nizzolo will probably be his strongest challengers.

The second outcome is that we get a breakaway and they stay away until the end. This will only happen if we get riders from several of the sprint teams i.e. someone from Ettix, Lampre, Trek and co. The rolling nature of the first half of the stage means that it will most likely be a strong breakaway that makes it clear and for it to have a chance of staying away, those involved will have to be far down on GC. The likes of Niemiec, Wellens, Oss are those who might make the cut.

The final, and least likely, outcome I can see happening is that one or two GC teams really try to shake things up and go hard early in the stage, in an attempt to isolate those who were in difficulty today. This tactic could also see teams with lighter sprinters try to get in on the act and get rid of the likes of Kittel etc. Bardiani could be one of those teams, trying to set it up for Colbrelli.

Prediction & Betting

Again, I’m finding it difficult to call this stage. More than likely we’ll get a full bunch sprint, but I’m not entirely convinced.

Not sure if that’s because I was out last and I’m feeling terribly hungover today, or if it’s just a difficult stage to call in general…

I’m going to hedge my bets and go for two picks again, but not pick a pure sprinter. Yep, think I’m still drunk…

Anyway, the first guy I’m going to pick is a man who can cover the breakaway/late attack options: Adam Hansen. He was riding very well over at Turkey and was disappointed to finish only 5th in GC, so he clearly has his climbing legs. He hasn’t really featured much at all so far in the Giro and is evidently saving himself for some breakaways later in the race. Tomorrow could be that day! Also, he’s shown several times that he’s not afraid of a late attack winning a stage in the Vuelta in 2014 by doing just that (watch the video here).

Just been informed that it’s his birthday tomorrow as well. We all know what that means!

At 300/1 with PaddyPower he is definitely worth a small bet. 0.2pt EW

So that 300/1 was gone by the time I’d finished writing this, I’d still say 100/1 is value. Available at Betfair. We’ll go 0.5pt EW now too!

The second person I want to pick can cover all 3 of the scenarios that I mentioned earlier: JJ Rojas. Movistar’s road captain was attacking today, being attentive at the front of the peloton marking moves. He could potentially go in a break (although I doubt that), and he has a sprint that means he can mix it on these types of finishes with the fast guys. Furthermore, he is probably the fastest finisher who can match it with the GC guys on a course like this if they really put the hammer down. The only concern in that situation is that he might be drafted in to work for Valverde.

Available at 150/1 with Betfair, he’s worth a 0.5pt EW bet.

I’ll probably go in-play on a pure sprinter if things are looking that way so check that tomorrow!

Thanks again for reading, hope you enjoyed it! I shall be back again tomorrow with a more coherent and less confused preview, once I have my full mental capacity back. Hope tomorrow’s stage will be as lively as it can be and not turn into a damp squib. Enjoy it wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Yesterday’s Recap

Another sprint stage, another remarkably easy win for Kittel. Who makes it 2 from 2 on the road stages at this years Giro and keeps up his personal 100% record on non-TT stages as well. The win also means that he goes into the Maglia Rosa, and he’ll hope to defend it over the next few stages.

As for our pick Pelucchi, he finished in a lowly and disappointing 13th.

I expected much more from him, especially with the way IAM were being attentive at the front all day. The whole team made the front group when the peloton split briefly due to the crosswinds and crashes. They were also the team offering Etixx the most assistance, but seemed to just disappear in the final 5km. Very disappointing.

To compound the misery even more, I thought that the Willier-Southeast rider who out-sprinted Pelucchi was Mareczko and that would nip the #25to1000 challenge in the bud, before it even started! Thankfully, it turned out to be Belletti who was sprinting for WS, with Mareczko finishing 153rd.

The Route

Not so flat anymore!

A flat first half of the stage, leads into a very rolling and bumpy second half. The first two Cat 3 climbs of the race feature in tomorrow’s stage so I’d expect the blue jersey of Tjallingi to feature in the break along with some of his early challengers. However, both of these climbs come too early to cause real difficulty for the sprinters, unless of course they’re on a really bad day!

The real interesting bit of this stage is that rolling, uncategorised, segment with around 20km to go. The main climb highlighted in the road book and the one that seems to be most talked about is the final one, that summits with around 8.5km to go.

 

However, the preceding “lumps” are no molehills, that’s for sure. They will make the legs of the sprinters heavy, especially if they are covered at a fast pace!

Going off of a profile (click here to open the link) made by @LasterketaBurua I make them out to be; 3.5km averaging a 4.1% gradient; 900m at 6.1%; and 700m at 9.1%. There’s a 4km of downhill/flat before we get to the final climb.

This type of finish reminds me very much of the closing circuits at the Ardennes classic. Short-sharp climbs, mixed in with more rolling ones!

The final climb (as can be seen above) has some very steep gradients in it, maxing out at 18% at times. This will really put the hurt on the peloton after a long day in the saddle (the stage is 200km long!).

It really is a teasing profile, the climbs will tempt out the puncheurs but they don’t “appear” too difficult so they give the sprinters hope of making it to the finish. The main factor going for some kind of bunch sprint tomorrow is the 2.5km of straight flat along the promenade. Anyone who has escaped on the climb will be left dangling out front like the proverbial carrot. It will just be a case if there are sprinters and teammates left at the end of the stage to chase them down. Everything is set up to make a cracking stage!

Will the sprinters make it?

The key question for tomorrow is who out of the sprinters will make it over that final climb?

Not many, in my opinion.

Kittel has been climbing excellently, see his results up the Hatta Dam and at the Tour de Romandie for proof of that. But I’m not convinced he’ll be able to make it over and contend tomorrow. If he does get over the climbs then will he have the power to compete at the end?

Of the “pure” sprinters, those with the best chances are Nizzolo, Modolo, Demare and Hofland, in my opinion. With Modolo probably being my favourite, he was climbing exceptionally well in Turkey!

If not the sprinters, then who’s going to challenge?

As said above, this stage finale reminds me of the Ardennes classics and I’ll think we’ll get a similar winner here. Someone along the lines of Sonny Colbrelli, Diego Ulissi or Alejandro Valverde would be among the favourites if it came to a reduced bunch sprint of around 40 riders or so.

Of the “lesser” names, Matteo Busato looks to be a good candidate. He has a quick sprint on him after a tough day and as was proven at Trentino, finishing 2nd on the final stage, losing out to Tanel Kangert (who’s also racing here).

This parcours begs riders to go on a late attack over the final climb. The likes of Tim Wellens will no doubt duly oblige tomorrow and try to squirrel away. Kangert himself could go on a late attack. Look to those further down on GC who could be given more leeway…

The conundrum in that case is, will they get caught before the finish line?

Prediction

For a prediction here, I’m going to have to name two riders because of the various situations that could occur.

If we get a sprint of some sort, then I believe that Modolo can make it over and have enough left in the tank to deliver a big result.

The real difficulty comes when trying to predict who a successful late attacker would be. If Steve Cummings was here he’d be the ideal choice. He’d manage to make it over the climb at the back of the peloton and as everyone looked at each other on the flat, straight 2km finish, he’d jump out the pack.

My rider to do something similar is Team Sky rider,  Nicolas Roche. He attempted something similar in Catalunya and was caught with around 1km to go and I think he’ll be given free rein tomorrow to try again. At the Tour de Yorkshire he also proved he’s in excellent form so he’s my lottery pick.

Betting

Roche is available at varying prices, between 200-300/1 depending where you can place your bet. I’m going to place mine (and the blog’s) at Boylesports because they’re paying 5 places tomorrow.

Modolo is also varied in price, between 25-33/1.

• 0.5pt EW Modolo
• 0.5pt EW Roche

For the #25to1000 challenge I haven’t come to a conclusion yet who to back. But check back here later or on my Twitter and I’ll post an update.

*UPDATE* – Challenge bet is Modolo over Nizzolo at 6/4. Stake £35, bank the £8.19 from the first bet. These bets will also be done at Betfair from now on. This is because Bet365 don’t like me as much and I’m limited there. Whereas, Betfair are much more generous! I am doing the challenge too. I’m not someone to suggest a  not place it myself!

Thanks again to everyone who’s liked and shared the post and managed to get this far. Sorry if this feels rushed, but I am in a hurry to get this done so I can go and enjoy our one day of Scottish summer-time. Hope you all enjoy what will (fingers-crossed) be an exciting stage tomorrow. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Today’s Recap

Well, what a resounding win for the fantastically-haired German! It was never in doubt once he pulled out of Demare’s slipstream and powered away to a comfortable win. As for some of the other top-tier sprinters, the likes of Greipel (15th), Viviani (13th) and Nizzolo (10th) all went missing. It was a poor stage in terms of a spectacle. The peloton was on a club-run until the final 20km or so, let’s hope for something a bit more lively tomorrow!

As for the blog’s pick of Hofland he came home in a credible 4th place. A good effort, but not good enough to return us any profit. I was impressed by his power, considering he started so far back. Only those in front of him when the sprint started (Kittel, Demare and Modolo) beat him. I think he came from about 9th or 10th wheel but it was too little too late.

That’s now two days in a row that I’ve picked relative outsiders and they’ve both finished in 4th place. So if you find out who’ll finish in 4th tomorrow, then keep on reading!

The Route

Flat. Pretty much. Again.

Instead of going West like today, the riders head East from Nijmegen before turning back and returning to Arnhem. We have another bump that’s classified as a KOM point, so expect jersey holder Fraile to be in the break again, but like today, it’s nothing to trouble the bunch.

The race again adopts a finishing circuit, with the riders doing two laps of it. Much like today, the circuit itself isn’t very technical, apart from a 360-degree loop, but that comes with just over 5km to go. This will shake things up for the sprint trains, but after that there are long straights and a few 90-degree turns which shouldn’t be too much of a hassle.

There is one roundabout with 600m to go, so being in the first 5 or so riders here will be crucial. It’s not a sharp turn, but the swooping nature of it will really stretch out the peloton. This could result in the finale being even more chaotic than today!

 

Weather Watch

Disappointingly today we didn’t get any real cross winds, however, tomorrow is the stage where it’s more likely to happen. This is because the race goes through more exposed farmland with few trees etc to shelter the riders. Annoyingly, the race travels through the most exposed areas relatively early on in the stage.

However, there is a chance that we might see some crosswind action when the race travels between the town of Zutphen (75km to go) and the KOM point at 50km to go. This could potentially continue in the run into Arnhem where the road (and wind) continue in the same direction. This will be less likely as the more sheltered area will provide more protection for the riders. However, the wind will still be quite strong, averaging the same 30km/h speed. This is about a third faster than it was today! I’m not holding out any hope for cross winds though because it will take a lot of effort from one or two teams to split things up. Yet again, I have seen stranger things happen before…

The Winner

*Insert yesterday’s paragraph here*.

All joking aside, it’s very hard to see past Kittel again for tomorrow’s stage. Etixx timed everything perfectly with the lead-out and I expect more of the same tomorrow. He should be in the first 5 or so through that roundabout and he’ll romp to victory again.

Who’ll be best of the rest?

You have to expect it will be the same contingent of riders who will be competing for the podium spots tomorrow. The finish tomorrow (as I’ve said above) is a bit complex so I fear Greipel will not be there again. I do expect Viviani and Nizzolo to be there. For this to happen Viviani has to be brought right to the front and be dropped on Kittel’s wheel with around 2km to go, no easy task! The Trek lead-out train was poor today so they need to sort themselves out.

FDJ were the big surprise lead-out for me, I didn’t expect them to be that good. They’ll need a repeat performance tomorrow if Demare wants any chance.

The IAM train was a big let down, no-where to be seen and they ended up with Pelucchi finishing way down in 23rd. Roger Kluge says that they all lost each other with around 3km to go and couldn’t move up together. Pelucchi himself had to do a few short sharp efforts to get near the front but that tired him out. Not good. I expect them to rectify this tomorrow.

Ewan seemed to be brought up to a good position, but got bullied off of Kittel’s wheel by Ruffoni and went backwards from there. His sprint was average.

Modolo didn’t get a great lead-out, but what can be expected when he only has Ferrari to put him into position! He did do well to surf the wheels and get up for third place.

As I said yesterday, Lotto Jumbo don’t have a proper sprint train lead out as such, but they did an OK job today of delivering Hofland. They took it up too early today and Hofland was left on his own about 1km too soon. If they want success tomorrow they’ll have to do what everyone wants to do and drop him off on Kittel’s wheel!

Prediction

As much as I’d love to see some cross-wind action, I just can’t see it happening. The main areas affected come too far out from the finish line and I can’t see a team putting in the effort required to split the peloton, so we’ll probably see a full bunch gallop.

Once again, Kittel is the man to beat and everyone else will be racing for minor positions.

Betting

From a punter’s perspective as clear a favourite as Kittel is, if the odds of 1/1 did not entice me yesterday (maybe they will in the future), then what’s being offered just now (1/2) definitely doesn’t!

The big question is whether to stick or twist with Hofland. He did a very strong sprint today, but tomorrow’s slightly more technical finale requires a strong lead-out. That of which he doesn’t have. So I think I’ll twist.

I’m going to go for someone who has the speed to match Kittel and on paper has one of the strongest lead-out trains here: Matteo Pelucchi. I fancy that the IAM boys will have got a rollocking today and they won’t want to mess things up two days in a row. They have strength in numbers and the engines to command the final 2km and get to that roundabout first, coming out of it with two riders in-front of Pelucchi. From there, all Matteo has to do is put his head down and hope that he can beat Kittel!

A few people have asked if I state a suggestion of how much money to back each rider with, so from now on I’ll leave a points based recommendation at the end of each post.

Pelucchi is available at 33/1 with PaddyPower and Betway. I’d recommend 0.5pts EW on him at that price. I would say he’s value down to the 25/1 that’s available with Bet365, but I would try to get something higher than that. Be on the look-out, you might manage to get a higher price than that when other bookmakers put out their prices.

I’m also going to start a blog £25-£1000 H2H challenge for the Giro. This will involve putting on one H2H bet for each stage. I’ll try and get as close to Evens as possible for each bet, as long as I’m confident with the selection. If all of the bets are at odds of roughly 8/11 then it should take 8-9 bets to come in (if some of the money is taken off after each bet).

So Challenge Bet 1 is Matteo Pelucchi over Jakub Mareczko at 8/11 available with Bet365.

Thanks again for everyone who’s managed to get this far. I might do a rest-day-recap but I’m unsure. If not I’ll be back with a stage 4 preview on Monday evening. Hope you all enjoy tomorrow’s racing! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.