Tag: sprint

TDF Stage 10 Preview: Escaldes-Engordany -> Revel

Rest Day Recap

Stage 9 saw a break make it all the way to the line and we got the battle on two fronts with the GC contenders duking it out behind. It was Tom Dumoulin who took the win up ahead, attacking just before the final climb, not to be seen again. It was a bit of a weird move from his breakaway companions. All of the other moves were marked and closed down, yet the best TTer in the group was allowed to get away. His winning margin was made up on the few kilometres leading up to the climb. That’s not to take anything away from the Dutchman, it was still a great win, especially because he looked to be struggling on the previous climb!

gettyimages_545836624_670

I’m still confused as to what happened to our pick of Diego Rosa. He looked very strong on that penultimate climb and I was feeling pretty confident going into the last ascent. I went for a drink, which maybe took a minute at most, came back through to where my tv was and he was gone. All of the other riders were there. It was very odd. Anyway, moving on!

Behind, we got a bit of a GC shake up, but nothing crazy. The two big guns came in together, along with Adam Yates. Who’s looked very impressive so far. Dan Martin and Porte trailed in just a couple of seconds behind them. With a group including Mollema and Meintjes not too far down either. The worst off were Aru and Barguil who lost a minute to Froome and Co. Leaving us with a top 20 that looks like this going into the second week.

Screen Shot 2016-07-11 at 12.03.56

Onto tomorrow’s stage then!

The Route

Another tough opener for the riders, starting off with a Cat-1 climb. Anyone who’s not warmed up properly on the rollers could end up in some difficulty!

Stage-1464948895

It’s important to note that the climb isn’t overly difficult in terms of gradient, it’s just very long!

Stage-1464965799

Although saying that, the second part of the climb is much more difficult than the first. Also, with it being the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, I expect there to be quite the fight to get into the break, especially from the French riders. With there being next to no chance the GC riders will attempt to make any moves on this stage then it won’t be as crazy as Stage 9. Instead, the attention will turn to the sprinters teams to control the break.

Once over the climb it should be fairly easy for them to do so. A long gradual descent and over 100km of flat follow.

The main focal point of the stage is the Cat 3 Côte de Saint-Ferréol that’s located within the final 10km.

Stage-1464952420

A short but sharp test for the peloton to face, the climb itself is very irregular. Some steep ramps over 11% followed by false flats and even a short descent. This is a lot clearer on the Strava profile which can be viewed here. Credit goes to Arjan who sent me the link to that! You can follow the climb on Google Streetview here as well.

I’ve made a profile of the last 10km on Strava. I personally prefer using it compared to relying 100% on the Tour graphics as they sometimes are a little bit off. Check that out here! I also like being able to scroll over the map and see the altimetry at each certain point etc. Anyway, I digress.

Once over the crest, the riders face a period of “flat” before making a left turn to start the descent. The downhill itself should see a very fast pace in the bunch. There are a few technical turns but more or less it should be taken quickly. In the final 3km the route descends ever so slightly (25m going off of the Strava profile. 0.8% average.) Nothing substantial, but it should ensure that the pace is high.

Screen Shot 2016-07-11 at 14.30.00

That could then be an issue with this roundabout/90° corner combo within the last kilometre. If we do get a sprint, then positioning and lead outs will be key here as the high pace will mean the race will be strung out, but also because the concertina effect could well be evident here. If you’re further down than 10-15th place then you have no chance.

So a sprint finish?

Well, before the Tour I had this marked down as a reduced bunch sprint and that is the most likely outcome on the day. It could be difficult for the pure sprinters such as Kittel and Greipel to make it over the final climb if some of the teams attack it at a fast pace. I would expect Sagan to be there along with Coquard and Matthews.

However, there are several situations that could unfold tomorrow!

Situation 1.

The first of these regards the make-up of the breakaway. I would not be surprised to see a few of the sprinters teams attempt to get a rider into that move, meaning they wouldn’t have to chase behind. I’m not sure how confident Kittel and co will be of making the finish line so I expect some of the following teams to be represented Ettix/Lotto S/Jumbo/DD. If they all make it into the break then it will be down to Orica/Tinkoff/Direct Energie to chase.

Now, Orica are usually very canny in these types of situation. We’ve seen it before at the Giro even when they’ve been in Pink they send someone up the road, so I could envisage them getting someone in the move. It’s all over to Tinkoff/Direct Energie then. Both of the teams would fancy their riders in a reduced bunch sprint but do they put someone in the break, just in case? If they do, then the break makes it all the way.

Situation 2.

Although some of these teams get riders in the breakaway, the likes of Etixx/LS/Movistar want to set an incredibly fast pace on the final climb to get rid of all the “sprinters” and set up the likes of Alaphilippe/Gallopin/Valverde for the stage win.

WATSON_00004610-003-630x419

Situation 3. 

The climb is taken at a controlled pace because the break has been caught and we see Kittel etc make it over. I think this is very unlikely.

6be499ed73cfe5841498aefd95a9fd3e

Situation 4.

The break has been caught, the climb is attacked, reducing down the peloton. However, there is a stall in pace at the top and someone makes an attack that sticks to the finish.

Tirreno Adriatico cycling race

 

I think we can discount situations 2 & 3 as they are the least likely to happen in my opinion. Situations 1 & 4, along with a reduced bunch sprint could all easily happen.

If we get a reduced sprint I’d have to say that Sagan is the favourite for the stage, Coquard to get a podium too. If some of the “heavier” sprinters get dropped, look out for Jens Debuscherre. He might get a chance to sprint if Greipel isn’t there.

bettiniphoto_0241344_1_originali_670

If Situation 1 comes true then it’s another case of the breakaway lottery. As I said above, look to riders from sprint teams such as; Teklehaimanot, Lindeman, Hansen. One rider I like for this situation is Orica’s Daryl Impey. He’s been climbing incredibly well this Tour and has been in the break already. He should have the explosiveness/speed to finish it off.

For a late attacker look towards the likes of Steve Cummings, Adam Hansen or LL Sanchez.

Prediction

Sprint – Sagan Wins

Break – Impey Wins

Late attack – Hansen Wins

Who’ll Revel in stage glory?

Betting

A day not to get heavily involved with. Screams out “in-play” once the Cat 1 climb is covered. Few small break picks for me and then I’ll probably back someone during the stage. If I do, I’ll say so on my Twitter!

0.1pt Outright on the following

Hansen @150/1 with Betfair (I’d take 100/1)

Debuscherre @350/1 with Bet365

Impey @125/1 with PaddyPower (I’d take 80/1)

Vanmarcke @125/1 with various bookmakers

Maté @300/1 with PP (I’d take 200/1)

 

Hope you enjoyed a more “in-depth” preview. I think we could get a few outcomes for tomorrow, what do you think? It will inevitably now be a straightforward sprint stage! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TDF Stage 8 Preview: Pau -> Bagnères-de-Luchon

Today’s Recap

Well, I got that wrong. Very wrong.

In fairness though, for a lot of the race it looked like it was to be a GC show-down. However, just over the Cat 4 climb the break started attacking each other, which they needed to do, and a stronger group of 4 formed up ahead. Before Nibali and Co caught the four up the road, Cummings attacked and was not seen again until the finish line. Another perfectly timed attacked from him. A big middle finger to the Olympic selectors.

Cm2jo4BWYAAKwWr

Behind, we saw some of the GC riders struggle in the heat. The most notable of those was Pinot who lost over 2 and a half minutes on the rest of the GC contenders. Then there was Flamme Rouge Gate, these dangerous finishes eh…Amateur from the ASO it has to be said. Hopefully Yates’ injuries are only superficial.

Onto tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

A tough day in the saddle (184km) awaits the riders with 4 categorised climbs and a sawtooth profile.

Stage-1464948879.jpg

We could get another fast start to the day as riders try to get into the breakaway. The opposite is easily foreseeable and the peloton might want a slow start to the day after today’s fast and frenetic stage. The first break might well stick.

With the sprint point being before the climb we could well see some of the sprinters try to get away again. There is a chance for another mass break.

The opening ascent of the day is a tough one, with the first HC categorised climb of the Tour: the Col du Tourmalet.

Stage-1464963857

A long tough climb (19km at 7.4%) this could possibly split the break up. The sprinters and those struggling from injuries will be hoping there is no one of danger up the road and that the peloton takes this at a relatively leisurely pace.

Over the Tourmalet comes a descent before the road kicks up again for the Cat 2 Hourquette d’Ancizan. In this stage it’s apparently so insignificant that there isn’t even a profile of it in the road-book! Supposedly 8.2km at 4.9% going off the stage profile, this is the closest actual climb profile I could find that climbs from Lac de Payolle.

Hourquette_d_Ancizan_depuis_Payolle

Again once over the climb the riders get a bit of respite on the descent. This time round they actually have a bit of flat to contend with before the penultimate climb up the Col de Val Louron-Azet.

Stage-1464963887

Another tough climb follows. There is a pattern here! 10.7km at 6.8%, it starts off relatively easy but gets grippier during the middle. The break will hope to still have a good advantage here. Depending on the feeling within the GC teams, we might get a push on from them here.

The final ascent of the day is a Tour classic, the Col de Peyresourde.

Stage-1464963898

7.1km at 7.8%, this climb is relentless. Hopefully we get some GC attacks here, but with a long descent to the finish I’m not sure we’ll see many splits, but what do i know?!

The finish in Bagnères itself is relatively technical within the final kilometre. Perfect for a lone rider.Stage-1464953383

How will the stage pan out?

I’ve had this stage circled as a break day since before the Tour started. As far as I can remember (I have no stats to back this up, just going off the top of my head), the stage that involves Bagnerès-de-Luchon more often than not ends up in a break victory. With today’s stage victory coming from a break, it has cast a little doubt in my mind. However, I’m sticking to my guns and saying that a break makes it. Partly because I’m rather stubborn, but also because the following stage has a summit finish in which the GC guys can make more of a difference.

So that begs the question…

Who are the break candidates? 

At least for this stage it’s easier to narrow down because the rider will have to be a good climber to stand a chance. They also have to be strong on the flat to make the break. There are a lot of guys far down on GC so there isn’t much of a concern in that case. Like other previews that I’ve done, I’m going to list some riders who could make it. I’m being greedy and going for 4 this time.

First up is a man I’ve previously mentioned, Ruben Plaza. I admire this guys aggressive tactics in the mountains. He’s not afraid to attack from far out. After seeing Cummings go well today, he’ll want to remind everyone what he can do! The only concern is that he might be on protection duties for Yates. However, I think he could get given the nod and freedom tomorrow.

Second is Stef Clement.

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 18.22.56

The IAM rider has been trying and failing to get into the break in the past few stages. He has the climbing ability to win out of a break and by the sounds of it is going very well at the moment.

Steve Morabito is another who could be given some freedom. With Pinot faltering today I think FDJ will try and put someone in the break tomorrow. On paper (aside from Reichenbach), Morabito is their strongest climber. He had a very good opening to the year, can he return to those ways here?

I feel like I have to mention a Dimension Data rider considering the way they’re going at the moment. That man is Daniel Teklehaimanot a.k.a The Tickler.

Tour de France 2015 - stage 6

Former Tour KOM wearer and this years Dauphiné KOM winner, the Tickler has been keeping himself towards the bottom of the GC. Saving energy for a breakaway possibly. Can he continue DD’s incredible start to this race?

For other break candidates look to the likes of De Gendt, Majka and Voeckler and those who want to feature in the King of the Mountains competition.

Prediction

So narrowing down those 4 breakaway contenders above, I’m coming to the same answer as an earlier preview. Orica will go one better tomorrow and Plaza will win the stage. He is a class act in a mountain break. Hopefully if he gets away, then he can manage to build up some KOM points as a bonus too.

382153-ruben-plaza-gen

Betting

There aren’t many bookmakers who have odds up for tomorrow so hunt around later on.

0.6pt EW Plaza @66/1 with PP (He’s available at 100s with Coral)

0.25pt EW Clement @200/1 with Bet365

0.25pt EW Morabito @200/1 with Bet365

0.15pt EW Teklehaimanot @300/1 with Bet365

I’m hoping the prediction luck will turn soon. Either way, we should be in for a gruelling stage tomorrow. Enjoy it wherever you’re watching it from. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

TDF Stage 7 Preview: l’Isle-Jourdain -> Lac de Payolle

Today’s Recap

Not been a great start to the Tour prediction wise as Cav excellently sprints out of Kittel’s slipstream to take the win. His third of the race so far! He really has turned a leaf this Tour.

Cmxg1VqXEAEBuGh

Etixx never really got a train organised at all which was very disappointing. They made a hurried effort at around 2km to go, but it meant Kittel had to expend unnecessary energy to get to the front. Then he hit the front too early which was to the delight of all the other sprinters, especially Cavendish who came out from behind him in the final 100m. A nod must go to Dan McLay who sprinted superbly to 3rd place. If the finish was another 50m down the road he could have climbed further up the podium! Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

Flat(ish) then a big ol’ hill.

Stage-1464948872

A flat opening 50km of the stage will undoubtedly result in a very fast pace within the peloton as riders try to get into the break of the day. The road then goes through several rises and falls in terrain before we reach the first categorised climb of the day, the Cat 4 Côte de Capvern. A long but fairly shallow climb at 7.7km in length but with inly a 3.1% average gradient. Well, that’s according to the official statistics. As you can see on the profile above the road actually rises before and after the classification. This actually makes the average gradient even shallower (2.3%) but the road rises up for around 16km. We could see those struggling with injury here. It’ll be a hard day for them thereafter!

We actually get the Intermediate Sprint before the road starts climbing up towards the final climb of the day. Sagan will be hoping to take as many points here as possible. He’ll want to keep Cavendish in close quarters.

Soon after we are onto the first Cat-1 climb of the race, the Col d’Aspin.

Stage-1464963542.jpg

A long climb that starts off fairly easy, its toughest section comes in the middle with a kilometre at 9.5%. Not the toughest of climbs but this will be the first shake up of the GC. Anyone on an off day could lose a fair chunk of time tomorrow.

The descent itself isn’t too technical, however there are some switch backs right at the end.

Screen Shot 2016-07-07 at 18.39.06.png

The road then kicks up again to the finish line, under 3% average for the final couple of kms.

How will the stage pan out?

Normally I’d be all over the idea that a break makes it this stage and it seems that a few of you agree.

Screen Shot 2016-07-07 at 19.20.12
Massive sample size. Reliable.

However, I think there are several circumstances that will ensure it doesn’t.

  1. It’s the first mountain stage and although it doesn’t finish atop the mountain, I expect Sky to keep to tradition and test out their GC rivals.
  2. Along with Sky testing out their rivals, Movistar will be keen to impose themselves too. Froome got a bit caught off guard at the end of stage Stage 5. They’ll see if they can do the same here.
  3. Time bonuses. Maybe not crucial at the end of the Tour but they certainly do help
  4. The most important reason for me. Contador. The Spaniard has looked shaky since his fall and the other GC teams have to go in for the kill here. If they don’t take advantage of him now, he’ll make their race a nightmare later on.
  5. The descent off the climb is short, it will be hard for any riders dropped to make up time (unlike stage 8) so any gaps made will probably stick.

Therefore, I think we get some kind of GC shake up. Maybe not substantial, but there will be some time gaps.

So the two main options for me are a GC bunch sprint, or a well-timed late attack. I’ll go through both of these possibilities.

This stage looks tailor-made for Valverde.

Vuelta Spagna 2015

He should be able to cope with the climb and will be the fastest of the GC men left at the end. Will he get given some freedom by Quintana? I think so.

Will Julian Alaphilippe make it over the climb? He was struggling over the smaller climbs on stage 5. I don’t think he’ll make it here. If he does, then he will definitely be a danger-man in the sprint. Likewise, so will his team-mate Dan Martin. I think the Irishman is more likely to make it to the finish. He has a finishing sprint that will worry Valverde and we’ve seen in other races that he’s not scared to attack.

Who else could contest a GC sprint? Well Rodriguez came from nowhere on stage 5. He’s someone who could definitely get involved. Bardet, Barguil, Kelderman & Yates all have a decent turn of speed.

For a late attacker the rider will need to be able to make it over the climb with the GC group and then attack on either the descent or on the uphill drag towards the finish. So they’ll need to be either a) a good descender b) or someone who’s not deemed an overall GC threat.

Someone along the likes of Rolland fits that briefing perfectly. An attacking rider, he won’t be afraid of failing. The main GC guys won’t be too concerned about him for the overall and he could well steal a march on them. Meintjes could also be the type of rider that gets away. He won’t be respected as much in regards to the overall jersey so a perfectly timed move could see him get away.

Team mates will be important in the finale to mark and close down the attacks. Team mates will also be useful to attack themselves. Quintana, Froome and Pinot were the only contenders to have riders left with them at the end of stage 5. I would love if Pinot’s team-mate, Sebastien Reichenbach, was given the freedom to get away and take a historic win.

The weather may also play its part on tomorrow’s stage with thunderstorms and rain forecast throughout the day. This could nullify the stage in the sense that the GC riders don’t want to risk it, or could easily do the opposite where they try to put pressure on the other riders. Who knows?!

Screen Shot 2016-07-07 at 19.59.19
Weather forecast for Arreau (just before the start of Col d’Aspin)

Prediction

As stated above, I don’t think a break makes it tomorrow. They have more of a chance the following stage. So it’s really a decision on if we get a late attack stick, or some kind of GC sprint. Either way, it will be a strong climber who wins the stage. I like Rolland’s attacking style and he has the right set of attributes/credentials to get away from the main bunch. The stage is set for him to take his third Tour stage!

Cannondale

Betting

Rolland 0.6pt EW @66/1 with PaddyPower (if you can bet there) they’re paying 5 places. Would take down to 50/1.

Kelderman 0.3pt EW @66/1 with Coral or Skybet (both 4 places). Again, would take 50/1.

Reichenbach 0.1pt EW @250/1 with Bet365. Would take 200/1 available with Sky too.

 

Hope you enjoyed my thoughts on tomorrow’s stage. How do you think it will pan out? It’s a very interesting one to try to call! I’m just optimistic and want an exciting stage. Any feedback is more than welcome. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

TDF Stage 6 Preview: Arpajon-sur-Cère -> Montauban

Today’s Recap

Well, the break made it as I kind of thought would happen. GVA took a fantastic win attacking away from De Gendt on the final Cat 2 climb and was never to be seen again! A great result for him after his Spring campaign was ruined by a crash. He now moves into yellow with a commanding 5 minute lead over the GC favourites.

5184

How long can he hold on? Well it really depends how aggressively the parcours are covered on this weekend’s stages. He’d hope to at least make it to Stage 8 in the lead.

As for our stage picks, none of them made it into the break and because of the massively increased pace behind, Gallopin was dropped too. Not good. Swiftly moving on!

The Route

Tomorrow we have our last chance for the sprinters for a while, well it should be their stage. There is a chance that a break builds up a large gap on the opening part of the stage.

Stage-1464948867

There could be a fast start to the day tomorrow if the riders sense that some of the sprinters are tired from today’s efforts. If we get a strong enough break then it could stick. However, this is very, unlikely. This isn’t the Giro, the sprint teams here at the Tour won’t mess up.

The final 30km of the stage are almost pan-flat so the break will probably have to have 4 minutes here to have a chance. There is a slight rise within the final 10km but it should have no real impact on the stage.

The most challenging feature of the finale tomorrow is the run-in itself. It’s very technical!

Stage-1464953365

There is barely a straight road in sight within the final 5km. The route constantly meanders through the finishing town of Montauban.

The final kilometre itself is tricky, with the passage of a roundabout at approximately 700m to go, heading left. They then swing back round to the right and onto the finishing straight. You’ll need to be within the first 10 riders at this point to have any chance of winning the stage. Therefore, lead out trains will be crucial.

Stage Contenders

Kittel has to start as the favourite for the stage. He had a sloppy start to the race and his lead-out wasn’t working. However, they got their act together on stage 4, managing to deliver Kittel perfectly. His sprint on that stage shows that he’s on very good form, normally he wouldn’t podium on a finish like that. Tomorrow’s stage suits him down to the ground. If he gets through that roundabout safely, no one well beat him…

marcel-kittel-giro-ditalia-nijmegen_3462266

Before the Tour I had Greipel‘s Lotto Soudal team as the best lead-out in the race. They have been good so far, but there is room for improvement. Furthermore, the Gorilla hasn’t delivered a stage win yet. He really should have won stage 3. It’s well documented that Greipel doesn’t like a technical finish, however, he put those claims behind him after he won a tricky finish in the Giro earlier this year. Thankfully for him too, the weather looks like it will be kind and there will be no rain.

andre-greipel-giro-ditalia-stage-seven_3465940

I have to now include Cavendish along with these two. Like many before the Tour, I was writing off his chances in the bunch sprints, but boy has he proved me wrong! His team Dimension Data seemed to have found their rhythm in the lead outs and on form probably have one of the best in the race. Cav seems to have regained his top end speed to go with his devastating kick. Can he make it 3 wins here? He has an incredible chance!

5568

Away from these three main contenders we have:

Sagan who will hope to have regained some of his strength after today’s exertion. He has the technical ability to easily deal with the tricky finale tomorrow. No doubt, he’ll manage to find his way onto the back of the wheels of the best lead-out. Can he come round the sprinter in front of him? I don’t think so.

Kristoff looked much better on stage 4 and slowly seems to be finding his feet again. However, that stage suited him much more than this one. He’ll be hoping to sneak onto the podium but I can’t see it personally.

Coquard isn’t known for his pure flat sprint, but his result on Tuesday will have given him confidence. In Adrien Petit he has a great pilot fish, and I can envisage the pairing attempting the Ferrari/Modolo technique where they get in the mix only in the last 500m.

Groenewegen is growing into his first GT quite nicely. He came from way back on stage 4, another good indication of his form. He’ll hope to top 5 here and possibly sneak onto the podium.

The other usual suspects such as Theuns, Dumoulin & McClay etc will all hope for another top 10 finish.

So does the breakaway have a chance?

Simply put, not really no.

However, if the right composition gets away where several of the sprint teams have representatives in it, then it could stay to the line. The opening half of the race looks ideal to build up a large advantage. There would probably need to be at least a rider from 2 of the following Etixx/LottoS/DD for it to have any chance I think. BMC won’t chase if there is no one that will threaten the GC.

You’ll be able to tell after the opening 20km if it will make it or not. I’m not even going to bother to speculate names who could be involved. It’s hard enough to make an educated guess on a rolling/mountainous day, a sprint day is nigh on impossible!

Prediction

We get a sprint and everything returns to normal. Kittel wins.

marcel-kittel-giro-ditalia-stage-two_3462315

Betting

Kittel 5pts win at 13/8 with Paddy Power.

Thanks for reading! We should be in for a good show of strength from the sprint teams tomorrow, enjoy wherever you’re watching it from. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TDF Stage 5 Preview: Limoges -> Le Lioran

Today’s Recap

Another day, another fest on my words for dinner. Kittel produced an incredibly strong sprint to win the day. Etixx definitely got his lead out right this time! My two favourites for the stage finished 2nd and 3rd. However, the blog “outsiders” were nowhere to be seen. I have to admit and hold my hands up when wrong, I just thought the stage/finish was going to be tougher. Fair play to those who backed Kittel! Onto tomorrow’s stage.

KITTEL-Marcel035pp-630x421

The Route

The most difficult stage of the Tour so far, there are six categorised climbs out on the course.

Stage-1464948860

Looking at the left of the profile map, you can see that the riders actually reach a reasonalbe altitude. There is a lot of ups and downs on the stage, with the highest point being the 2nd Category Pas de Peyrol at 1589m.

With the climbs back-loaded towards the end of the stage, this promises to be tough day out in the saddle. The Ardennes riders will be licking their lips at the profile!

Stage-1464964128

However, the two cat 2 climbs are brutes. The Pas de Peyrol averages just over 11.5% for its final 3kms, with the Col du Perthus also having segments over 11%. The saving grace for the Ardennes riders and Peter Sagan is that the Col du Font de Cère isn’t an overly difficult climb. If they make it there, they will fancy themselves on the sprint up to the line, which has a very similar profile to today’s finishing ramp.

How will the stage be won?

Tomorrow is the first stage that I can feasibly see being won by a breakaway. There are plenty of riders far enough down on GC not to worry Sagan’s lead as long as they aren’t given too much headway. Furthermore, one of the Tinkoff DS reiterated the fact that they were still here to win the GC with Contador, so they don’t want to waste any extra energy in preserving Sagan’s lead.

Etixx could feasibly chase in the hope to set up Alaphilippe in a finish that looks to suit him well. However, if he’s there I’m sure that Sagan and Valverde will be there too and they can definitely challenge/beat him for the stage.

Consequently, I think if the right break gets away then it could make it. (50/50 chance)

Break Candidates

Realistically you need to look to riders who are 3mins+ down on the GC for the break to succeed because I’m not too sure on how keen Sagan will be on losing the jersey. Although saying that, he is a very laid back guy!

Furthermore, they have to be able to climb well to make it over the Cat 2s with the rest of the break.

Some riders who fit this category are Herrada, Albasini, Cummings, Navarro and De Gendt to name a few. Like normal, I’m going to highlight three riders who I think can go well.

First up is my main KOM hope and mountain break specialist Ruben Plaza. It may be too early in the race for him to go on the attack, but after losing over on 12mins on the GC then he could quite well have been targeting this early stage. A great climber from the break, he should be able to cope with the two Cat-2 climbs and then he’d hope to solo away to the finish.

Second is Alexey Lutsenko.

WATSON_00004527-004-630x420

A strong baroudeur, the Kazakh won a stage at Paris Nice earlier in the year by making a solo attack after the final climb on the day. He may not be the best climber ever, but he’s certainly strong enough to make the break on the flat. If he gets in it, I wouldn’t back against him! Furthermore, he has a decent turn of speed as well.

The final rider is one that has been in the break already this Tour, Jan Barta.

CJPg8jqWsAAbTFt

Bora have been very active so far this Tour and I expect that to continue tomorrow. A strong TTer, Barta can make the break on the flat. Furthermore, he’s a fairly solid climber so could be capable of finishing it off, depending on his breakaway companions!

If it’s not a breakaway?

As I’ve mentioned above, this is a tough stage to call straight up and I think there’s a 50/50 chance of the break making it. If not, look towards those who featured on stage 2. The trio I said earlier: Sagan, Alaphilippe and Valverde all have very good chances of taking the result. However, there is one rider that I like outside those three favourites. That man is Tony Gallopin. He was very disappointed after Stage 2 to only finish 8th. His form is clearly very good after coming 3rd in the French National TT plus finishing 2nd in the road race. I think the TT result is more evident of that because he’s not known for going great in that particular discipline.

The likes of Matthews could make the finish as well and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that we see a late attack sticking if people sit up and look at each other.

Prediction

I’m going to have to cheat here and give two predictions: one for the break and the other for a favourites showdown.

I have fond memories of Plaza winning Stage 20 at the Vuelta last year. I had him at 80/1 that day, he’s the same price for tomorrow. The omens are good. He looked strong in the Giro and he’s the type of rider who can maintain a solid level of form for a while. If he makes it into the break, everyone else will be worried! He’s my breakaway man.

382153-ruben-plaza-gen

But at the end of the day, the breakaway is a lottery so my guess is as good as yours! Speaking of which…

For the favourites I think it’s fairly obvious who I’m going to pick. Yes, Sagan/Alaphilippe/Valverde all rightly start as the trio to beat, but I have a feeling that big Tony will go well here. He’s my man if it comes back together for some kind of bunch finish!

Tony-Gallopin

Betting

0.75pts EW Gallopin @20/1 with Various bookmakers

0.25pts EW Plaza @80/1 with PP (paying 5 places)

0.125pts EW Lutsenko @200/1 with SkyBet

0.125pts EW Barta @300/1 with PP (5 places again)

 

Hope you all enjoyed the preview, we should be in for the most exciting stage so far tomorrow in my opinion! Watch this become a borefest now haha. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

TDF Stage 4 Preview: Saumur -> Limoges

Today’s Recap

Well, I didn’t expect that, Cavendish wins again! I think I’ve been guilty over the past year of writing him off for bunch sprints but I won’t be making that mistake anymore. He showed a great turn of speed and an intuitive track lunge to pip Greipel on the line (via a photo finish). It’s been a great opening to the race for him, and it’s nice to see him back at his best.

CmiOxHzXgAEHQfw.jpg

Coquard came 3rd, with Sagan 4th. Not the best, but I expect more from them soon. Kittel/Etixx were disappointing, they seemed to get lost in the final 2km. His sprint was impressive but from too far back! Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

Another long transitional stage at 237.5km long, the longest in the race! Snoozeville pt 2 probably. As someone pointed out on Twitter to me…

Screen Shot 2016-07-04 at 17.58.58

But alas, only one KOM point on offer tomorrow. Great.

Stage-1464948854

The KOM point even comes after the intermediate sprint. I’d hate to be the poor soul at one of the Pro-Conti teams who’s manager has told them to get in the break for exposure. However, I do think we could be in for a more exciting stage than today’s damp squib.

Firstly, the stage is deceptively harder than it looks. Mainly due to the slow, long climbing that happens in the second half of the race. The road constantly rises from 139km to 210km. If they’re going at a reasonable pace then that could potentially put some of the sprinters in trouble.

This profile by CyclingStage might give a better indication of the possible problems the riders could face out on the road.

Screen Shot 2016-07-04 at 19.05.53

Furthermore, this route goes through a similar area to where the race was blown to bits by crosswinds back in 2013. However, the forecast doesn’t look good in that sense and a lot of the roads are sheltered by trees, but you never know!

The run in at the end of the stage isn’t overly difficult.

Stage-1464953348.jpg

There are a few roundabouts and sweeping turns but nothing that the peloton shouldn’t be able to cope with. The real test comes with the altimetry of he closing 10kms.

Stage-1464952391

As you can see it’s relatively lumpy with a few steep-ish sections. This will probably stretch out the peloton as riders struggle with the change in gradients. However, the main difficulty is that 500m (going off of the profile) drag up to the finish line. It looks to rise at roughly 5% too.

Screen Shot 2016-07-04 at 19.17.51
Looking down from the finish line. Here’s a link to the google maps spot.

This is a harder finish than today in my opinion. Although shorter and more explosive, the build up from the earlier part of the stage will have a big effect on the outcome here.

Stage Contenders

After not including him in the past few sprint stages, I guess I have to include Cavendish here. However, old habits die-hard, and I don’t really fancy him for this one. The stage itself is too lumpy for him considering his track preparation, and even if he makes it to the end the 5% ramp is not his cup of tea. Watch him go on to win now!

Greipel has a chance here too but I’m not convinced any of the “heavy” sprinters will make it up the ramp at the end in contention for the podium. That goes for Kittel who might not make it to the sprint with the peloton!

Sagan has to start as clear favourite for this stage. His dominant display on stage 2 shows that he’s climbing very well, and this steeper incline suits him even more than today. I would not be surprised if he went on to win. In fact, it will be the opposite. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t make the top 3. But hey, sport is full of surprises!

Coquard will also fancy his chances here. As I said yesterday, uphill sprints like this are his bread and butter. He should go close.

Theuns will hope to top 5 again.

Matthews, Groenewegen & Kristoff will all hope to put in a solid effort here. However, they’ve been unconvincing so far.

A couple of “outsiders” who I’d like to highlight are as follows.

Julian Alaphilippe. As stated above, I’m not sure that Kittel makes it. Therefore Alaphilippe could do the sprint for Etixx. He has a fast kick and it was his inexperience that cost him against Sagan on stage 2. With some kind of lead-out here he could go very well!

WATSON_00004610-003-630x419

Greg Van Avermaet has had a quiet start to the race, with an 8th place on Stage 2. Apart from that he’s not bothered with the bunch sprints. This type of finish reminds me of the two times he’s beaten Sagan this year; at Omloop and Tirreno. He could pull a surprise out of the bag!

Tour de France - Stage 13

 

EBH, if Cavendish isn’t feeling up for it (and Edvald has recovered fully from his crash on stage 1) then he could be Dimension Data’s chosen man here. Unbeatable on these type of finishes at the start of the season, it would be nice for him to get given free rein here.

One super joker I’d like to mention is Vakoc. He’s more than likely behind Kittel/Alaphilippe/Richeze for this type of finish. However, he could be a rider sent up the road near the bottom of the climb, or with around 5km to go so that the other teams have to chase and Etixx get an easier run in.

WATSON_00004571-002-630x420.jpg

Prediction

A tough one to call, I’d have Sagan and Coquard as favourites. However, I think we could get a “surprise” winner. Cav’s a nice lad. He’ll know when a stage is too tough for him and he’ll realise Edvald’s strengths. Boasson Hagen to boss the finish and take his first Tour win since 2011.

tour-of-oman-16-st2-BOASSON-HAGEN-Edvald052p-630x420

Betting

I can’t back Coquard and Sagan at the prices they’re at so going to back my 4 named riders again. Spread the load etc…

Alaphilippe 0.3pt EW @50/1 with Ladbrokes

GVA 0.4pt EW @66/1 with Betfair

EBH 0.45pt EW @ 100/1 with PP

Vakoc 0.1pt EW @400/1 with PP

If you enjoyed the preview, any feedback would be great as usual. Hopefully we’re in for a more exciting stage tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF Stage 3 Preview: Granville -> Angers

Today’s Recap

After being surprised by the Cavendish win on Stage 1, there was no real surprise with today’s winner: Peter Sagan. He looked so strong and effortless, and you would fancy him to hold onto yellow until at least Stage 7.  With the Green Jersey pretty much sewn up already!

Cmc08kFWgAEZjmg

Disappointed with Coquard, who put pressure on himself by saying that he was going for the stage etc. It was just too tough for him in the end, which I wasn’t expecting to be honest. Although in hindsight, he is the worst climber of the AGR contenders such as Matthews and Alaphilippe. Anyway, onto tomorrow!

The Route

A long day in the saddle and a relatively boring affair for the viewers. Glad it’s on the Monday, definitely one to tune in to in the last 20km.

Stage-1464948849

Although the road rises and falls a lot, this is definitely a day for the sprinters and is all about the run in.

The first thing to note is that it’s not a flat final km.

Stage-1464952383

It appears to rise 2.5% on average for that kilometre, although going off of the profile above the second part looks steeper with the first 500m being more shallow.

This will change the type of sprint that it is. You really can’t go too early otherwise you’ll burn up. Patience/a tactical brain and a strong lead-out will be very useful here. Speaking of which…

Stage-1464953342

The run-in is also fairly technical too, with a roundabout and a few sharp turns, not to mention a 90-degree right within the final 400m. I wonder if as many of the riders will complain about this like they did in Switzerland recently!  Being well positioned through that final corner will be key, as coming from far back on an incline finish will really sap the legs and take a monumental effort.

Stage Contenders

The two Germans get their regular mention. Kittel will be hoping to go better than his 2nd on the opening stage. He could well do so, but off the top of my head I can’t remember him being overly convincing on a finish like this. Yes, he went well on Hatta Dam but they’re too different types of effort. However, with his characteristics he should be up there challenging but I just think there are other riders who are better at these finishes. For example, his compatriot Greipel.

WATSON_00004602-002-630x420

He won a very similar finish at the Giro earlier in the year and with his better climbing ability (compared to Kittel) if I was a bookmaker I’d probably have him as favourite over Kittel. But I’m not a bookmaker, so that’s why he’s not my favourite 😉

Cavendish should be considered for this stage, but with all of his track work that he’s done, I think that will be a detriment to him on this type of finish. He won’t be top 5.

Someone who will definitely come top 5 is Sagan. Today’s winner has a very good chance of going back to back tomorrow. As I said in today’s preview, I don’t even think his sprint is at his best yet. A podium should be the least that he’s expecting.

Theuns went very well on stage 1 to come 5th and this type of sprint should suit him even more. With the crash on that stage hampering others lead-outs, I’m intrigued to see how he goes in a full sprint. He’ll be hoping to go top 5.

Our man from today, Coquard, will be hoping to bounce back in tomorrow’s sprint.

Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 18.49.54

If you’ve read this blog for a little while, you’ll know how much of a fan I am of the “local rider” idea! He should be able to skip up this finale, and with Petit positioning him well, he’ll be hoping for a podium at least.

Others who could go well are Groenewegen, Kristoff and possibly Degenkolb.

I would like to highlight two more riders.

Firstly, Michael Matthews.

1811123-38219751-2560-1440

I was hesitant to back the Aussie for today’s stage because of his crash yesterday, however he got through unscathed. It would have been an unfruitful back because he finished in 5th but it shows that he’s going well. This finish really brings him closer to the proper fast men, his stage win earlier in the year against Bouhanni proves that. I think he can go very well here tomorrow.

More of an outsider, I think pocket rocket Samuel Dumoulin could cause a bit of an upset and a stir here.

%5Cuser%5Ctextes%5CDernieres-Actus%5Cz_tn_arrivee-roue-tourangelle-2016

He had an exceptional end to May, but was a bit below par at the Dauphiné. However, he seems to be on the right track after coming 4th at the French National Champs on a very tough circuit. The incline at the end of the race will be no problem for him.

Prediction

I’m finding it hard to narrow down this stage, but the name that keeps appearing in my head who could win out of several situations is the same: Peter Sagan. The World Champion finally got his Yellow Jersey and I’m sure he’ll be determined to get a stage win in it. Tomorrow represents a very good chance for that.

bettiniphoto_0241344_1_originali_670

In a massive surprise, Coquard and Matthews to round out the podium with Sam Dum sneaking a top 5.

Betting

Doing something I haven’t done for a while and backing 4 riders for a sprint stage.

2pts outright on Sagan @ 13/2 with Betway

0.5pt EW on Coquard @ 22/1 with Paddy Power

0.4pt EW on Matthews @ 80/1 with Paddy Power

0.1pt EW on S.Dumoulin @ 250/1 with Bet365.

 

I wouldn’t be overly annoyed if you didn’t catch the majority of this stage, just make sure you see the final 20km!

Hope you enjoyed the preview, feedback as usual is great! How do you think it will pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

TDF Stage 2 Preview: Saint-Lô -> Cherbourg

Today’s Recap

Well, I can honestly say I would never have picked Cavendish out as the winner today! We didn’t get the crosswind action that I was hoping for, but there were still a few casualties caused by the panic. Contador seems to be the one who came off worse with bad road rash on his shoulder and right-hand side. He’s away to the hospital for scans to see if it’s worse than it appears. We also got a bad crash during the sprint as well, with several riders going down. However, it was the Manx Missile who stole the show and in turn picking up his first ever Yellow Jersey. Onto tomorrow’s stage!

5568

The Route

A testier route than stage 1, it’s up and down for a lot of the race. Grippy roads I’d say!

tour-de-france-2016-stage-2-1465248154

The stage starts in-land but then follows the coast again so there is a chance for some echelons, but as we saw today, that all depends on the attitude of the teams.

Stage-1464949445

The main feature of this stage however comes in the final 10 kilometres. With a short ascent of the  Côte d’Octeville, on which some of the lighter riders will hope to sap the legs of the fast men.

Stage-1464952377

After that, the Côte de La Glacerie will provide the final test for the riders. Officially 1.9km at 6.5% it really opens up the stage to a lot of riders. However, the Strava segment makes it look slightly easier, as it incorporates the second section. With it being 2.9km at 5%. There are some steep sections over the first 1.5km, but the actual finale looks relatively straight forward. A proper power sprint! But who will be left?

Stage Contenders

Peter Sagan.

WATSON_00004260-001-630x420

The World Champion has had a fantastic season, no Rainbow curse for him! The worrying thing is that I don’t think he’s even hit his best form yet this season, a scary thought. This type of finish looks perfectly suited to his characteristics, a climb to soften the legs followed by a strong-mans sprint.

Michael Matthews.

1811123-38219751-2560-1440

A man who seems he can sprint as fast on an incline as he can on the flat. This Ardennes-ish style finish resembles Amstel Gold quite a lot. Matthews is tailor-made for that and this stage seems to suit him to a tee. Pre-Tour he targeted this stage and the possibility of taking Yellow but after being involved in the crash (supposedly he’s not injured according to Orica) he’s lost ground to Sagan. He might win the stage, but unlikely to take Yellow!

Julian Alaphilippe. The young Frenchman has the skill-set, a punchy climb and a fast sprint. I think the organisers were thinking of him when they designed the stage. A Frenchman in Yellow?

GVA, EBH, Valverde, D Martin and Gallopin all have claims to go well, but I don’t think it’s hard enough for Valverde/D Martin.

One rider who I talked a lot about in the Sprint Jersey preview can go well here; Bryan Coquard. As I’ve mentioned above, this stage reminds me a lot of the Amstel Gold Race. You only have to look at the result of this years race for riders who could be up there tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2016-07-02 at 21.18.01

Coquard has impressed me with his turn of speed this year, but it’s been his uphill sprints that have been the most dominant. I think he has a very good chance tomorrow!

There is a chance that we don’t get a sprint and that a lone, late attacker wins. Recently crowned French Champion Arthur Vichot could give it a go or someone like Jarlinson Pantano.

There are many more who could win if certain scenarios play out.

Prediction

As I’ve said several times this preview, this stage is AGR Mk2, a toughish climb followed by a “flat” sprint. Of the riders who were at that race and are here, Le Coq was the fastest finisher. I think he can challenge clear-favourite Sagan and take the win. Maybe even yellow too if he’s lucky. That would be a great coup for the French team!

Le-coureur-equipe-Team-Direct-Energie-Bryan-Coquard-vainqueur-2e-etape-Etoile-Besseges-4-fevrier-2016_0_730_485

Betting

Just backing Coquard tomorrow, not wanting to get overly involved with the few potential outcomes.

0.75pt EW @ 25/1 with Boylesports. (Paying 4 places)

 

Apologies if this is snappier than normal, I had my Grad Ball last night and haven’t been feeling too clever today. Normal service shall resume tomorrow! Hopefully we get an exciting stage, it has the potential to be a good ‘un! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF stage 1 preview: Mont-Saint-Michel -> Utah Beach

This week seems to have dragged on for a while, but the first stage of the Tour is finally upon us! The Yellow Jersey appears to be destined for the shoulders of one of the many sprinters that are here at this race come tomorrow afternoon. But first, let’s take a look at the route the riders will have to traverse.

The Route

Not a challenging parcours in terms of climbing, the opening stage is a fairly flat affair. There are some bumps along the way but nothing overly worrying for the fast men.

Stage-1464948836

We’ll probably see a slightly tougher than normal fight to get into the morning breakaway with the two categorised climbs coming within the first 40km. The winner of these two climbs will get to pull on the Polka Dot jersey at the end of the day. Expect the usual suspects and teams to go after it.

The main obstacle that the riders will have to face on this stage is the threat of crosswinds.

Stage-1464949439

With the race never straying far from the coast-line, the action could start soon after the final KOM climb.

Screen Shot 2016-07-01 at 13.48.34
Wind direction/ speed / max gusts (Granville) (All speeds km/h)

The above screenshot is taken from windfinder.com and focusses on the town of Granville which is situated roughly 51km into the stage. The wind direction and speed definitely looks strong enough to create some echelons! The same can be said later on in the stage too, with the following screenshot taken of the town of Lessay, which is 110km into the race.

Screen Shot 2016-07-01 at 13.48.15

If some of the teams decide to put the hammer down then we could see some splits and time-gaps. Although there is a long way to go after this point (just over 75km), the race comes slightly more in land and should benefit from a cross-tailwind, cross-headwind and finally a tailwind coming into the finish at Utah Beach. Any reasonable-sized gaps made earlier in the stage will be very hard to bring back!

Stage Contenders

If it comes down to a fair sprint then there really are only two contenders; Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. They are quite evenly matched in this type of finish but I’d have to give Kittel the edge, and he is rightly the favourite for the stage. If Greipel wants to beat his countryman then he’ll have to start his sprint ahead of him. This is certainly possible as Greipel has the best lead out train in the race in my opinion!

Who will try to split the race?

Some of the GC teams (Sky, Tinkoff etc) will give it a shot, but annoyingly for some of the other sprinters Etixx and Lotto Soudal are capable of doing some damage as well. So there is a very good chance that they’ll be around at the end no matter what. More than likely, the rest of the sprinters will probably be fighting for third place.

However, with this being the first stage the usual peloton nervousness will be exacerbated by the potential tricky conditions and I think we’ll see some unfortunate crashes and possibly some GC/sprint casualties. Therefore, I don’t think we’ll get a full sprint at the end of the stage. It could very much be like stage 2 from last years Tour, where only 24 riders finished within 15 seconds of the winner on that day, Andre Greipel.

The numbers and composition of that group, who knows?!

There are two riders who if the race gets tough that I’d like to highlight. First up is Fabian Cancellara.

Challenge Mallorca - Day 3

The Swiss rider is about to start his final ever Tour de France and after missing out on wearing the Maglia Rosa at the Giro, he’ll be incredibly fired up here to make amends. He managed to sprint for third on last years wind-affected stage, pipping Mark Cavendish on the line. If the group gets whittled down to round 15 riders, he is a definite danger man.

The other rider is his team-mate and Tour debutant, Edward Theuns.

Edward-Theuns-Tour-de-Belgique-2016-696x392

Making the step up to World Tour level this year, the Belgian has delivered some good results this year, finally getting his first win for Trek at the Baloise Belgium Tour. A rider not afraid of wind (and rain), he’ll definitely be one of the fastest riders left in a reduced group. After all, he came 4th at Scheldeprijs (A.K.A The Sprinters World Championships) so is no slouch.

Prediction

It’s the boring and simple pick, but I can’t really see past a Marcel Kittel win here. He’s the fastest man in the world, and now riding for Etixx (arguably the best echelon creating team) they’ll be able to safeguard him in the bad conditions.

marcel-kittel-giro-ditalia-nijmegen_3462266

However, there is a slight chance that there is absolute carnage out on the road tomorrow and if that’s the case then look to Cancellara or Theuns to possibly sneak on the podium or even better.

Betting

This really should be a no bet stage. I personally have money on Kittel at 9/4 from pre-Giro, however those odds are long gone and I can’t recommend him at the price he is just now (around evens) in a race that could be wild.

Just because I’ve mentioned them as possibilities if things do get crazy, I’m going to put a little fun stake (0.1pt EW) on Cancellara and Theuns.

Cancellara @ 300/1 (Betfred or Totesport) or 250/1 with Skybet.

Theuns @ 400/1 (Paddy Power).

 

Hopefully we do get some crosswind action to make the stage more exciting, otherwise it will be a dull and long day until the final 20km. Enjoy the race wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Giro Stage 17: Molveno – Cassano d’Adda

Today’s Route

Well, the idea of a breakaway succeeding was quickly thrown out the window and we got some more GC fireworks on today’s stage. It looked for a while that Chaves was going to be the major loser, with the race splitting massively on the first climb and the young Colombian being left in the second group on the road. However, it ended up being Nibali who was the main loser as those in the front group rode away from him, and Chaves who came up from behind, dropped him too. Up ahead, Valverde took a good win, meaning he now has stage victories in all of the Grand Tours. Kruijswijk was second and Zakarin 3rd.

CjO9GX_WYAAJJ0X

Annoyingly all three of the riders I mentioned in the preview were up the road at some point. Boswell was apparently in a big move at the start of the day that was brought back by Nippo. (Here’s a link to an interview with him post stage.)

Kudus escaped briefly along with Pirazzi and one other rider I can’t remember just at the bottom of the first climb of the day. They were quickly brought to heel as well.

And of course Dombrowski had made it into the elite group of 10 who had escaped up the road. Then he lost contact with the group on the flat. Some people are speculating that it was team orders, but it looked to me as if he’d taken a big turn at the front swung over and nobody came through. At this point there was a slight gap between the first five in the group and the second five. After Dombrowski had swung off to the side of the road I think he was caught napping and the remaining four powered away to catch up with those in-front. However, that’s all speculation/my opinion, so I guess we’ll have to wait for a press release from Cannondale to see exactly what happened.

Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage!

The Route

Bit lumpy then very flat!

T15_MadonnaDC_2_alt

Nothing much to discuss here, with only one cat-4 climb on the route and that shouldn’t cause the peloton any difficulty. Cunego will be looking forward to a day where he can have a rest and not try to get in the breakaway.

The actual finish isn’t that difficult either. The organisers have been kind to the peloton/sprinters here.

T08_Greve_ARR

So a nailed-on sprint then?

Well you’d assume so. Both Modolo and Nizzolo haven’t won a stage yet and will be keen to get one in the bag before the final stage in Turin. Their main rivals have all went away, leaving them as easily the fastest sprinters here. There are some other teams with second-rate sprint options but they don’t compare to the two Italians.

A two-horse race then.

Well…

Team Tactics

If there were more top-tier sprinters here then it’s a sprint day guaranteed. However, with there only being the two, other teams aren’t going to work to help bring the break back. In fact, the best move for them is to get a rider in the break, so that they can save themselves for the finale.

Lampre only have 8 riders, but they won’t use up Ulissi or Ferrari for the chase. Minus Modolo, they only have 5 left and they’re not exactly the strongest rouleurs in the World, they’re much more suited to hilly routes. Plus, we’ve seen Lampre cock-up a situation like this before (Final stage at the Giro last year).

Giro d'Italia 2015

Trek only have 6 riders, but again they won’t use up Alafaci (who I assume will be doing lead-out duties with BVP gone). Leaving them 4 riders to commit to a chase. They have stronger riders on the flat but will be shouldered with more of the work due to Lampre’s incompetences and the fact Nizzolo is the faster of the two.

Other teams are supposedly targeting the sprints, Dimension Data and Giant Alpecin namely. But as I said above, I don’t see them contributing to a chase when they’re really fighting for third place. Unless of course they miss the break of the day and get made to work on the front.

The real interesting team tactic for me though is how Lampre are approaching the Maglia Rossa competition.

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 18.51.05
Current top 10 of the Maglia Rossa

After today’s stage, Ulissi has moved within striking distance of Nizzolo. Modolo really seems out of the picture and would need to win tomorrow and in Turin, hoping that Nizzolo does terribly in both sprints. I get the impression that all of Lampre’s eggs are in Ulissi’s basket. Ulissi I can envisage going on to win the stage into Pinerolo which would gain him some more points but with the points being weighted towards the sprint stages, he would need Nizzolo not to score any tomorrow. (Or very few).

Now, Ulissi could go in the break and try to take the 40 points on offer at the intermediate sprints, but that would be foolish. Doing so would mean Trek definitely would chase the break down, resulting in a sprint of some sort at the end and more points for Nizzolo. What Lampre really need to do is get someone in the BOTD and not chase, hoping that the likes of DD and Giant get someone in there too. Leaving all the onus on Trek to do the work. It’s a risky tactic, but after a tough, all guns blazing day like today, then it might just come off. The only thing with this approach is that Modolo has to be on side 100% and I think he will be. Sacrificing his own personal ambitions for the good of the team. Sprinters aren’t all that selfish, are they?

What does this all mean?

On a day where most will say sprint, I’m going to be my usual bold self and say a break makes it. (Because hey, it’s definitely worked so far this Giro…! 😂 😂 😂).

As said above, there will be too many teams that don’t want Modolo and Nizzolo dragged to the line as their rider will be sprinting for third. They’ll have a much better chance of the win from the break. Plus, with Lampre (and Ulissi’s) eyes fixed firmly on the Maglia Rossa they won’t want to gift Nizzolo 50 or 40 points.

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 19.24.54

Prediction

If it’s hard enough predicting who’ll get in a break on a mountain stage, it’s nigh on impossible picking someone on a flat day with any confidence. The wild-card teams will feature, along with those who don’t have a stage yet. The IAM boys will be keen to get in the break to show their worth to new employers. Any Italian will fancy their chances. The list is endless. Well, once you go through all the riders I suppose it ends, but I digress…

I’m going to choose my rider, purely for the poetic nature of it all.

On National Escargot Day, Van Zyl never managed to get in the break. Like all snails, he’s a bit slow to the party and will make the break a day late, taking a most unlikely, but memorable victory.

Johann-van-Zyl-Celebrates-150709MTN300

Let’s just hope he’s not feeling sluggish after today…

tumbleweed

Betting

I can’t really advise bets for a stage like this. It should really be a no bet day, unless you want to back some breakaway candidates. I’ll probably have a look at the exchanges and see if I can get some riders at 500 or 600/1 + for fun.

But for a bit of blog fun, we’ll go with the man who’s (100%, no doubt about it, positively) going to win the stage.

0.1pt on Van Zyl @200/1 PP.

 

Hope you enjoyed the racing today, because we could be in for a bit of a snooze fest tomorrow. As always, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.