Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 3 Preview: Mancha Real -> La Guardia de Jaén (ITT)

Today’s Recap

A pretty benign day and a peloton that was actually pretty well controlled despite the rolling parcours in the finale. Mitchelton Scott were well rewarded for all of their work they did throughout the day, with Matteo Trentin taking the win.

Dz8TNTGXQAAmSXe

He didn’t have it easy though, just pipping Van Poppel and Garcia in a photo finish. He’ll be taking it easy tomorrow though as all eyes turn to the GC contenders. Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

It wouldn’t be a Spanish stage race without a tricky TT, now would it?

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2019-stage-3

As per usual for the race of truth, I’ve made my own Strava/Veloviewer profile of the complete course that you can view here.

download (66)

The afternoon can really be split up into three parts with the opening being the first 6 kms and the drag out of Mancha Real.

download (67)

After leaving the start gate the riders descend for 800m before they start the 5.5km (at 3.6%) drag upwards. However, those figures don’t tell the whole story and as you can see on the profile, the drag goes up in steps, with the final 1.5 km being a proper climb. That section itself averages 7.6% but over half of that is at 9%. Certainly not ideal on a TT rig but it’s something the riders will have to get over!

From there, the next 7 kms are all downhill at quite a steep negative gradient (-6 % average), so it will no doubt be incredibly fast.

Screenshot 2019-02-21 at 14.43.37

The danger here for the riders are the couple of technical and sharp turns that they face near the start of the descent, but in particular the two greater than 90-degree corners that they are greeted with on the outskirts of Pegalajar.

Screenshot 2019-02-21 at 14.45.27

Here’s hoping everyone takes them safely! There is roughly another 1km of very shallow descending, before the riders cross the river and face the final climb of the day to the finish line.

download (68)

At 1.8 km in length and averaging 8.4%, the organisers do sure know how to make a fun end to the day. Although I’m not entirely sure some of the riders will agree with that sentiment. The climb is tough and long enough for those that have got their pacing strategy wrong to blow up a little and lose quite a bit of time.

Contenders

Ion Izagirre.

The clear favourite for the day given his performance in the opening TT in Valenciana. Izagirre is very competent against the clock and with his ability not only on the climbs but also on the descents, you’d be hard pressed to find someone to back against him tomorrow. Astana are flying at the moment and after a strong performance on the opening day they still have 3, potentially 4, riders in contention for the overall. They’ll all be going full gas and they could well get a couple on the podium in the TT.

Tim Wellens.

Clearly going well after his win on the opening day, he seems to have fully recovered from his illness a few weeks ago. Wellens has been working a lot on his TT bike over the winter and is looking forward to getting his first outing on it here just to see where that has gotten him. Last year he took an 8th place on a rolling course so he will expect a similar result here. Not known as a TT rider by nature but one that is improving, given his early season form then he must be considered a threat for the day.

Pello Bilbao.

news_idnews1665_photo_1525442738

Astana option number 2, Bilbao is an old blog favourite since his Caja Rural days and it is good to see him really improving each year at the World Tour level. He’s another rider that has steadily worked on his TT with a solid 7th place in the opener in Valenciana. On the first stage here, he was doing a lot of work for his team-mates but still managed to finish in the top 10. Clearly he’s in great shape and might just be the sleeper rider for the day.

Jakob Fuglsang.

Astana option number 3. Having only started his season in Murcia, the Dane has found his legs pretty quickly and was the first man home after Wellens on the opening day here. A very hot or cold TT rider, you can never really know what to expect from Fuglsang until he gets onto the TT rig. If on a good day, he could compete against the field here.

Steven Kruijswijk.

One of the consistent GC TT riders who delivers solid results with the very occasional brilliant performance. He’ll hope to be in or around the top 5 but it will take one of those special efforts for him to win. In fact, it is surprising to see that for a rider so consistent he has only 2 professional victories to his name.

Prediction

Another Astana win, with Izagirre taking the day.

news_idnews2368_photo_1549468564

Wellens and Bilbao to finish on the podium as well, but not sure what order!

Betting

No bet, at the moment.

Wanted to back Bilbao for top 3 but that’s currently not possible or back him against someone in a H2H as long as it wasn’t Wellens or Izagirre. Will have a proper look at the other H2Hs available now and maybe see what the other books offer later on.

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and why? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Advertisements

Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 2 Preview: Sevilla -> Torredonjimeno

Today’s Recap

Despite Astana and Bahrain’s best efforts to try to split things up a little before the final climb, we had a pretty large peloton arrive at the foot of the ascent. Movistar took it up early and things quickly thinned out, however, no one really wanted to go full gas from the bottom like they did last year. Possibly knowing just how brutal the climb they decided it was better to save something. Astana then put in a little dig on the false flat descent but it was Tim Wellens who took the corner I highlighted in the preview yesterday, exactly the same way he did back in 2018. Carrying some momentum through it and onto the steep finish, he sat in the saddle and powered away from everyone as they struggled to hold his wheel. A dominant performance and a good one to beat Astana and the illness he faced a week or so ago!

Dz3I7V2WkAIWlOF

Astana will be happy with their current position though with Fuglsang and Izagirre taking 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Disappointed with blog pick Yates, who looked as if he was being brought up by his team-mates but then lost the wheel with around one kilometre to go until the start of the climb. From there he began the ascent in about 50th place and was never going to come back after that. He might not have won against Wellens, but we’ll never know!

Oh well, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A long day in the saddle which sees the road rise steadily up; will the sprinters be able to hang on?

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2019-stage-2

With nothing overly difficult in the opening 185 km of the stage, the main battle will take place over the final 25 – 30 km.

download (63)

The only classified climb of the day crests with about 24.5 km to go and given it’s 4.6% average for just over 4 km – it isn’t exactly the toughest ascent in the world either. However, it definitely could be used to put the peloton under a little pressure, especially if those eyeing up stage victory later on want to make things more difficult. After a short descent, the riders face the final 20 km which are all ever so slightly uphill, averaging 1.5%.

download (64)

The day will be decided (obviously) in the final 5.6 km.

With an “opening” climb of 2 km at 4%, followed by 1.6 km of flat, then a 2 km climb at 3%: there are opportunities for the finesseurs of the bunch to try to nab a win.

How will the stage pan out?

With some time gaps after today’s stage and no bonus seconds on the line, it could actually be a day for the breakaway. However, I don’t think that will happen as there should be enough interest behind from teams wanting a stage win to close things down.

Will it be controlled all the way to the line though?

With no pure sprinters here as such, the likes of Trentin and Van Poppel will be hopeful of sticking with the bunch and being the fastest riders left. Yet, it will be a tough ask for teams to keep things in check as I think plenty will fancy their chances of attacking in the finale and spoiling the party. The classics riders and puncheurs will be licking their lips at the prospect of the drags in the closing 5km.

Consequently, I think we might see a small group get away near the end of the day, who battle it out for a stage win. Or even a solo rider who times their attack perfectly as everyone else looks at each other.

Riders to look out for include Prades, Gavazzi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Canola and of course the aforementioned Trentin and Van Poppel.

However, I don’t think any of them will win, instead…

Prediction

A blog favourite will be raising his hand come the end of the day and that man will be Matej Mohoric.

1023141684_670

I was very impressed to see Mohoric grinding his way up the climb today, slowly picking off riders ahead of him and ending up in 11th place. He’s a rider that keeps improving year on year, especially now that he is fully focussed on his cycling after finishing his studies. We saw that come to fruition last year with what was a breakthrough year and I expect him to match that this season with some very strong performances in the classics. The slightly tricky finish looks perfect for him to launch a doozy of an attack in the closing kilometres and with a bit of confusion and lack of co-operation behind it will be very difficult to bring him back. Mohoric does also have the advantage of packing a pretty handy sprint in a stage like this so he might just wait but that isn’t his nature. All or nothing for Matej!

Betting

1pt EW Mohoric @ 25/1 with Bet365

Thanks as always for reading the preview and apologies it is slightly more stumped than normal; I’m a bit under the weather and trying to write two previews a day takes a little time. It’ll probably the same tomorrow as I’m heading home for the weekend so will be spending a bit of my time travelling. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 1 Preview: Sanlúcar de Barramed -> lcalá de los Gazules

Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 1 Preview: Sanlúcar de Barramed -> lcalá de los Gazules

As I’m doing both Andalucia and Algarve previews this afternoon, no GC funny business here – straight into the opening day it is!

The Route

With no real mountains the stage looks quite simple on paper, but given the constant rolling nature of the parcours and the sting in the tail that awaits the riders: it certainly isn’t the easiest start they could have had.

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2019-stage-1

We’ll no doubt see a fight between some of the Pro Continental teams to get into the break and try to take the KOM jersey but in terms of other action for the stage, don’t expect much until the closing 10kms, with everything building to a crescendo.

Some of you may recognise the finish climb from last year’s edition of the race, with it being the finale of Stage 4, which saw Tim Wellens power away from everyone. However, the approach into the town itself this year is a little different.

download (60)

Last year it was mostly all a steady downhill until the foot slopes of the climb but as you can see on the profile above, there are a few short rolling kickers to contend with first. Nothing to worry about for the peloton as they’re all roughly 500m long and average about 5-6% but they will be taken at race pace and probably sap the legs a little as the fight for position begins.

With around 2.6km to go it is the exact same finish that we had last year so it is worthwhile to watch that again. You can find a video of the finish here, just skip along to around the 42 minute mark for those closing kilometres.

Screenshot 2019-02-19 at 12.56.36

The fight to get to the right hand turn with 1.3km to go will be very important, as the climb starts in earnest as soon as you leave the main road with immediate double-digit ramps. Consequently, being at the front of the bunch allows you to carry more speed through turn and saving you a vital bit of energy.

download (61)

The climb can really be split into three parts; with an opening 700m at 16%; before a 300m shallow descent; and the final 250m at 13% kick to the line.

Having team-mates in the opening few hundred metres is helpful and we saw Lotto Soudal utilise that tactic well last year but with it being Wellens and Landa at the head of the race with 1km still to go – this is a stage about pure power and climbing legs.

The road surface on some parts of the climb is pretty terrible too with riders having to use storm drains for a smoother ride. This again highlights that being at the front of the peloton is a pretty good idea for this climb!

Screenshot 2019-02-19 at 13.05.55

One crucial point of the climb that I picked up on last year was this slight turn off of the shallow descent. Landa led Wellens through here, but the latter carried a lot more speed and was in a better gear to power himself past the Spaniard as the road started to rise again. It looked as if Landa had to alter his pedal stroke to change gear and that ultimately cost him the stage as he couldn’t get back onto Wellens’ wheel again.

I really enjoyed the finish last year and I’m more than happy to see it return this year! Let’s have a look at who might be competing for the win and the first leader’s jersey of the race.

Contenders

Tim Wellens.

Vuelta-a-Andalucía-Etapa-4

It’s only fair to start with last year’s winner with the Lotto rider hoping to double up this time round. As seems to be tradition now, Wellens started his 2019 very strongly in the Spanish Trofeo races winning one of them, with the other two results being 2nd and 5th. He was meant to ride Etoile des Besseges but had to skip it due to a viral infection and consequently missed almost a week off the bike. However, his coach seems to think that it shouldn’t be an issue and that he’ll be ready to contest for stage wins and a good GC placing this year. We’ll have to wait and see but a fit Wellens would be a favourite for the stage once again.

Adam Yates.

With a win already under his belt this year in Valenciana, taking the day at the very tough and steep finish in Alcossebre, Yates will be relishing another opportunity on a short but steep climb here tomorrow. He normally is good on these shorter steep ramps and after a slightly disappointing 2018 where he was in his brother’s shadow, he’ll want to step up again this year. The finish tomorrow provides a great opportunity for him to get an early second win under the belt this season.

Simon Yates.

Would it be fair to say he was the breakthrough rider of the year in 2018? Although he was a strong rider before that with good GC places in the Tour and Vuelta, it was last season that he really upped his level. With the well documented cracking at the Giro, Yates bounced back with a very mature and strong ride to win the Vuelta. Like his brother, he can fly up the steep slopes when he wants to but given this is his first race of the season, I’m not sure where his form is at. On the team’s website, he says to get some racing in his legs and support Haig and his brother. Just a bluff or is he being truthful? We’ll find out tomorrow.

4/7ths of the Astana team.

One of the early form teams, the Kazakh outfit are flying at the moment and I don’t see that changing here. They have an incredibly strong group with them at this race and on their day I could feasibly see any of Sanchez, Bilbao, Izagirre or Fuglsang win tomorrow. Honestly, trying to pick who out of them will go the best is tough but I would possibly argue Bilbao as he looked the strongest on the steepest finish in Alcossebre. I imagine they will all be given a free role tomorrow in the hope that they can be near the top of the order to put the pressure on the other teams later in the week.

Dylan Teuns.

dylan-teuns

He was my pick to surprise everyone with an attack on Alcossebre but after apparently suffering a puncture with just less than 10km to go he had wasted too much energy fighting back and couldn’t follow the best. As a rider who has contending for the win and finished on the podium at Fleche Wallonne, a 1.2km steep climb tomorrow looks perfect for him and I fully expect him to be in the mix. With Colbrelli taking the team’s first win in Oman today, the pressure is somewhat off them a little tomorrow. Will that help Teuns out?

Sergio Higuita.

I named the young Colombian as my wildcard for Alcossebre and he certainly continued to impress there. His diminutive stature and low weight should theoretically help on the steep slopes compared to those more gravitationally challenged but with the dodgy road surface tomorrow, he might actually struggle to get the power down if he’s dancing on the pedals. Nonetheless, I expect another top 10 from him with another strong performance.

Eduard Prades.

It’s weird to see Movistar with such an underwhelming GC team for a race in Spain but they do have a possible outsider for the opening stage. Prades had a breakthrough year in 2018 winning the GC in Norway and Turkey, while picking up some good stage results throughout. Already this year he’s taken his first victory with a stage win in Provence, on a day that featured a brutally steep climb before the finish. Obviously that’s different from a race actually finishing up a steep climb but he’ll be hoping to improve on his 12th place here last year.

Prediction

I think it will be a Wellens vs A Yates vs Teuns vs Astana battle, but I think the former might still be a little flat after his illness. Hmmmm, it’s got to be Adam Yates, doesn’t it?

Dy-MzSfVYAM0Zgy

Teuns to come home second with Bilbao third.

Betting

2pts Win Adam Yates @ 7/2 with Bet365.

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a Andalucia 2018 GC Preview

A race that has been dominated by Alejandro Valverde in the past, he’s won 5 out of the last 6 editions, it was the same last year where he just pipped Alberto Contador to the title by one second.

bettiniphoto_0272249_1_originali_670

 

Thibaut Pinot was third at only 6 seconds back but with none of those riders here this week, we have a chance for a new winner.

First though, let’s look at what is in store for the riders over the week.

The Route

As I’ll be doing in-depth daily stage previews, this section will be a little truncated. All of the following profiles are thanks to @LasterketaBurua.

Stage 1.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 13.39.46

An interesting opening stage with a lot of climbing in the third quarter of the day. This could turn into a GC day but the likely outcome will be a reduced sprint of some kind.

Stage 2.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 13.42.04

Only the second day but we have the Queen stage of the race. At only 141km of racing the stage is short but it is filled with climbs. The finish up to Alto de Las Allandas could see some massive gaps. Those with a poor TT will have to go full gas here, it should be a great watch!

Stage 3.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 14.34.20

The only stage the should see a full bunch sprint but we do have a lack of quick-men here. Who will control the day?

Stage 4.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 14.46.50

A long day in the saddle but it is all about the final 1.5km; a short but steep ramp. Both the climbers and puncheurs will fancy it.

Stage 5.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 14.49.16

A TT to finish that has a 5km section of gravel that averages just over 2%. It should be one for the more traditional TT riders, but it is short enough for some surprise names to get in the mix. Will the GC title be decided on the final day?

With the stages briefly covered, let’s have a look at who might be challenging for the win at the end of the week.

But first…

The Elephant in the Room

This is Froome’s first race after his AAF was announced/leaked. Now, the decision to have him race is one that divides opinion amongst cycling fans but I’m fairly certain you will all know what side of the argument I am on. It will be interesting to see how he and Sky approach the race. Will they take it easy and hope to slip under the radar (well, as much as they can) or will they continue on as if nothing has happened?

Either way, there is no way that they can come out of this one, ahem, cleanly.

If Froome takes it easy then the accusations will fly suggesting that he needed medication to go well etc. Whereas if he goes full gas and features at the head of the race then a lot of people will take offence as to the audacity of the team considering all that is going on at the moment. They are stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

It will also be interesting to see how the riders in the peloton treat him. Will he be given the same respect as before?

No doubt the Brit will still have his fans that will cheer him on. In fact, I would suggest that they’ve become even more fanatical since the AAF finding so we can expect them to be vocal no matter what.

The voices of dissent will be as vocal as the cheers this week but I just hope no-one does anything stupid out on the road to take the situation into their own hands. Cycling’s image is already being made a mockery of, we don’t need stories of piss being thrown at him etc.

Personally I don’t think Froome will feature here. He’s essentially completed an extra Grand Tour while in South Africa as they attempt to recreate the situation and find a scientific reason as to why his salbutamol levels were so high. Surely he is spent after it all? Plus, I don’t think Sky can risk the outrage if he does win until the case/investigation is over. If he does, then it is a big “fuck you” to the sport.

So with that said, I’m going to discount him for this race. Let’s have a look at who else might compete though!

(Again though, this all opinion and shouldn’t be taken as fact. Plz don’t sue. I’m poor. 😐)

Contenders

Mikel Landa.

article-Landa-debut-Movistar-Mallorca-5a6761684d3ed

Starting his first race for Movistar he’ll want to get his season up and running with a good result. On paper this looks ideal for the Spanish climber. He’ll love the steep and relentless finish on Stage 2 and he should be able to put in a solid time in the time trial. In fact, he should be the class act of the race but with his form being so unknown he could well win it or come home in 20th.

Jakob Fuglsang.

A rider that we do know the form of, the Astana man has started the season well with a 3rd place on GC in Valenciana. He followed that up with a solid 6th place in Murcia at the weekend. Astana have a very strong team here and they’ll hope to have a few guys near the head of the race in the important stages. Numbers could be crucial.

Luis Leon Sanchez.

The second Astana candidate for the race win, the Spaniard has started the European season in sensational form. After returning from the Tour Down Under where he finished a respectable 8th on GC, he’s since went on to finish second behind Valverde in Valenciana and then beat him in Murcia at the weekend. A strong TTer, he should have an advantage over some competitors in that stage and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go well on some of the steep ramps, he did well in Valenciana on similar terrain.

De La Cruz / Poels.

With Froome taking this one easy (see my reasoning above) then Sky will turn to other riders for success. I’m not sure how either of them will go here though as their crack squad in Valenciana was extremely disappointing. Was it just a slow start to the season or is no-one in form yet as they all secretly want to lead at the Tour…I think it is too tough for De La Cruz to win GC, but if Poels has upped his game since a poor Valenciana then he of course is a contender for the win. We’ll find out on stage 2 where he is at!

Steven Kruijswijk.

sptdw1018_670

After pulling out of the Giro last year the Dutchman finished the season with a 9th place in the Vuelta. A rider who never really starts the season well I am intrigued to see if that changes this season given he is hoping to go to the Tour. On his day he can climb with the best and he can produce a good time against the clock. Yet, I don’t think he’ll be up and running yet so a top 10 would be a solid result.

Ben Hermans.

With three top 10s already in 2018, the Israel Academy rider will hope for a similar, if not better, result here. Juxtaposed to Kruijswijk, Hermans is a rider who normally does start his season well. I wouldn’t have him down as one of the best climbers here but given form is important at the start of the year he could surprise just like he did on the Green Mountain last season.

Amaro Antunes.

One of my favourite riders from 2017, it was great to see his season rewarded with a step up in level to ProConti with CCC. An explosive climber he’ll like the steep ramps that we have on a couple of the stages. In this field, he will fancy his chances to go well on those days. His TT definitely needs some work but his team have improved in the discipline over the past half a year, so I’m intrigued to see if it has had a positive effect on Antunes over the winter. Another top 10 on GC like Valenciana is certainly a possibility.

Prediction

Form is King early in the year so I have to go with Luis Leon Sanchez as the winner here.

DVs5J98X4AYPcFJ

Part of the strongest team, he and Fuglsang should be at the head of the race on the toughest stages and that will be of massive benefit to them. Sanchez has looked the strongest on the climbs in the previous races so it will take a lot for someone to drop him. Furthermore, he possesses a strong TT which could see him seal the win on the closing day.

No odds are out as of yet but I might back him depending on the price.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win the GC? I’ll be back later this evening with my stage 1 preview. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Ruta del Sol Stage 3 Preview; Lucena -> Córdoba

Today’s Recap

My, oh, my! I did not expect that outcome at the end of the day.

Contador turned the heat on but just couldn’t see the result out. Thibaut Pinot made an excellent come-back in the final kilometre, out sprinting Contador; eventually winning by 2 seconds.

c4zmkwcuoaez8tv

It leaves the GC very interestingly poised going into tomorrow’s time trial. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for them!

The Route

A short 12km TT awaits.

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2017-stage-3-1485552303

Not a very descriptive official profile, so as is the norm with TTs, I have made my own Strava profile. You can view that here.

screen-shot-2017-02-16-at-16-40-58

Once the riders “descend” from the start ramp they almost instantly going in the opposite direction, with only 200m of relatively flat roads. It’s then a 1.9km climb that averages 4.95% but does ramp up over 10% in some places.

A 4km long descent follows, which involves a few technical turns before a slight kick up and another kilometre of downhill. The road rises again for 1.6km, averaging 2.8%, before the riders plunge through the suburbs of Lucena.

The riders will have to keep something in reserve as they have a 500m long kicker to end the day.

What type of rider can win this TT?

I have to admit, I really like the parcours for this TT. With a third of the stage being uphill, the TT specialists won’t have it all their own way. Yet, the climbs aren’t overly challenging to completely discount them from the reckoning either.

Stage Contenders

Ion Izagirre probably starts as the favourite for this TT. He’s a rider who will be able to cope with the climbs but also is very strong on the flat. His TT has improved massively over the past few years and he’s put in some big performances over these short efforts. The one concern with him is that he can be a bit hit or miss at times in these events, so I’m not 100% confident in him to deliver.

Former World Champ Kiryienka is here but I think this TT is too short and twisting for him.

gir-41

Alberto Contador used to be a very solid TTer but lost his way in the past few years. He seems to do best when it’s the third week of a Grand Tour so I fear he will ship too much time and lose the leader’s jersey.

Thibaut Pinot on the other hand is a rider who’s made great improvements to his time trial in recent years. He took a great win at the Tour de Romandie last year and will certainly like the look of this course. He seems to be back in good form and will fancy his own chances of taking GC leadership.

Time for everyone’s favourite Swede, Tobias Ludvigsson, to step up to the plate. He’s showed great promise in the past in this discipline, but he hasn’t been performing as well on the road as I would have expected. Maybe he’s just saving himself for this? He certainly has a chance!

Alejandro Valverde did well to only concede 7 seconds today after what was a poor start to the climb from him. He dug in deep and is still in with a shot of the GC crown. Not often thought of a strong time trialist, Valverde is actually fairly solid in the discipline. Particularly in short events, but also particularly in Spain. I’m expecting to be pleasantly surprised by him tomorrow.

I’m also expecting to be surprised by Fabio Felline tomorrow. The Italian was exceptional on the lower slopes of today’s final climb, setting up his team leader. He’s capable of a top 10!

I don’t expect much from the likes of Campenaerts, Vorobyev, Le Bon, Poels and Landa.

Particularly Poels in fact. He won’t top 5.

Prediction

Underestimate Valverde at your peril…

I won’t be.

El Bala to win!

article-alejandro-valverde-no-correra-tres-grandes-2017-57ff846d9cc05

Maybe I’m clinging on to that GC treble just a bit too much?

Betting

1pt WIN Pinot at 14/1 with Bet365 (would take 10/1 and the EW if you want to play it safe)

1pt WIN Valverde at 18/1 with Bet365 (would take 12/1 and the EW if you want to play it safe)

1pt on this 10.18/1 H2H Treble;

screen-shot-2017-02-16-at-19-28-57

Other bookmakers might price up more favourably later on, I just want to get this published!

Thanks again for reading, as usual any feedback is greatly appreciated. I hope we get an exciting TT that is close right up until the end. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Ruta del Sol Stage 2 Preview; Torredonjimeno -> Alto Peña del Águila

Today’s Recap

I told you that was going to be the stage of the week, it’s all downhill from here!

We had attacks from almost all of the GC favourites; some classic Spanish stop start racing; groups reforming and breaking up more often than Take That; Reichenbach impersonating a HGV in the final few kilometres; and after all of that, Valverde still won. Easily!

c4uefibwqaaarde

Nonetheless, the stop start racing has meant the GC is still nicely poised going into the next couple of days, with 10 riders only 5 seconds down at most. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

An even tougher day of climbing.

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2017-stage-2-1485552244

The road does undulate a lot in the final 50km, but I would expect this stage to come down to the final climb, the earlier ones will just sap the legs.

The climb itself is typical of what we get in this region, fairly short but steep! 5.2km long, averaging 9.8%, there is certainly chance for big time-gaps here.

I’ve managed to locate the strava profile of the climb, which can be viewed here.

screen-shot-2017-02-15-at-19-15-54

The hardest section is 2km->4km, averaging a stiff 11.25%! This is where the proper climbers will hope to make some gaps as it gets easier in the final kilometre with the gradient dropping to around 3% by the time they reach the finish line.

How will the stage pan out?

With there already being significant time gaps and no bonus seconds on offer, there is a chance that we might get a breakaway. However, with this being the first mountain top finish and early season bragging rights to play for, I’m fairly confident this will be another GC affair.

Contenders

This will be brief, as you only really need to look at the top performers from today and there are clearly two riders who are a level above the rest in my opinion.

Valverde was in admirable control of the stage today. He followed Contador relatively easily after he was surprised by his countryman’s early attack and from there he never looked in trouble. He gave it a nudge on the descent to see if he could get away but played it cool once he realised that wasn’t going to happen. Really, if it wasn’t for him being such a wiley old fox and refusing to properly work with Contador they could have distanced the rest by the top of the climb. He’ll enjoy the steep stuff tomorrow and the climb looks like the perfect length for him, plus his finishing sprint should see off any challenge if there’s a little gallop to the line.

Contador looked great for his first race back and will be pleased with where his form is at just now. He had everyone else in trouble on the climb apart from Valverde which is bound to please him, well, maybe not! He won’t like the look of the end of tomorrow’s stage and the thoughts of a TT so I can imagine he’ll hit out early again like he did today. With the stage finish at the top of the mountain this time round, can everyone hold his wheel as he dances on the pedals?

c4uue6ixuaar7bq

As for the rest, Rosa was the guy that looked the strongest on the climb but I can’t see him beating the two Spaniards.

The only way that Contador/Valverde will lose if they start messing about like they did today and that leaves an opportunity for someone to attack. But I can’t really see that happening here. There is a completely different dynamic when the stage finishes on top of a climb rather than at the bottom and they’ll be full gas all the way to the top. Plus, with the TT to come, I think they’ll be sensible and work reasonably well to extend their time gap over the likes of Izagirre, before possibly attacking each other in the final 1km or so.

Prediction

After writing him in italics, and delaying the inevitable yesterday, he’s going to be in bold today.

Valverde wins.

article-alejandro-valverde-no-correra-tres-grandes-2017-57ff846d9cc05

Betting

Absolutely no value in the stage markets so I’m going to go for this H2H treble at 6.1/1 with Bet365. 2pts on.

screen-shot-2017-02-15-at-19-47-15

Thanks as per for reading! Apologies for this being so short but after today I don’t see the point on rambling on about any outsiders for this stage. Normal service shall resume for the TT tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Ruta del Sol Stage 1 Preview; Rincón de la Victoria -> Granada

Opening stage of the race and it looks like it could be a cracker!

The Route

A rolling, hilly day that is a real mixed bag and not what you might expect. At 155km, it will be short and sharp!

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2017-stage-1-1485552148

If you were to just take a quick glance at the profile you might assume that the final climb will reduce the bunch somewhat but we should end up in some kind of sprint. Yeah, I don’t think that’s going to happen…

Typical of Spanish races, the organisers have made the scale on the Y-axis almost twice as large as it really needs to be and this makes the climbing on the stage look a lot easier than it actually is.

We climb from sea-level early in the stage up to 1000m by the 50km mark. From there it’s up and down for 30kms before a long, shallow descent and the final test of the day, the El Purche.

As per usual, I have made a Strava profile of the climb itself and the run into it, that can be viewed here.

screen-shot-2017-02-13-at-20-45-50

The road rises ever so slightly for 9km before the start of the ascent. The climb itself can be viewed as either 6.2km at 9.2% or 8.3km at 7.9%, depending on what peak you take the summit to be! Either way, there are sections of the climb that go well into the double figures gradient wise, it’s sure to be a shock to the system for the bunch.

Once over the top we have around 14km of proper descending , then a flat-ish run in. The road twists and turns a bit in the final 3km but it shouldn’t be of too much difficulty for the small group that we should have. It might just help a solo escapee though!

How will the stage pan out?

The beauty of this stage is that no one really knows and can say with any real confidence how many riders will crest the summit of the final climb together/how many will make it back on the descent/what happens if there is a regrouping.

That hasn’t stopped me before though!

Valverde has to start as favourite for the stage purely because he can win in any situation. He has the form to possibly ride away from everyone on the climb and come home solo, or he definitely has the speed to win from a small group of 5-15 riders.

Nonetheless, I like the idea that the stage will be won solo, so to avoid just repeating everyone from my GC preview, I’m going to highlight a couple of riders who could have a chance.

The Late Attackers

First up is a rider with two wins to his name already this year, Tim Wellens.

tim-wellens-2

Not afraid to attack, the Belgian so often used to ride with his heart over his head. However, he has more recently toned down his ridiculously timed attacks and taken a more considered approach but still managing to hold onto some panache. If he times the move perfectly tomorrow then he will be hard to bring back!

Remember when I talked briefly about this next rider in my GC preview and I said I would be mentioning him again several times throughout the year? Well, it’s that time already; step up Tobias Ludvigsson. Now, the climb is on his limit and if they absolutely fly up it then he might struggle but if we get a slowing of the pace then he can make it over at the head of the peloton. He was climbing very well at the end of last year and that form seems to have continued into the start of this season, with a very impressive 15th on the Llucena stage that did not suit him at all. He’ll hope to utilise his TT ability on the run in.

I was trying to think of a third but no one else on the start list really fits the same criteria as the above two so I’ll just leave it at that!

Prediction

I think you all know where this is going, on yoursel’ Big T!

ludvigsson-jpg

Or Valverde wins which is much more likely. 😉

Betting

No value in Wellens, so a wild punt on Ludvigsson for the fun of it!

0.25pt WIN @ 300/1 with Bet365 (would take down to 150/1)

*Adding another 0.25pt WIN on Reichenbach at 250/1 with Bet365 (would also take down to 150/1)

I might add some H2Hs later once I’ve had a proper look at them, you’ll find them on my Twitter!

Thanks as always for reading, any feedback is greatly appreciated! How do you think the stage will play out? Anyway,

That was My Two Spokes Worth.