Tag: racing

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 5 Preview: Grenoble › Valmorel

Today’s Recap

A crazy start to the stage saw no break go for over 50km before the elastic eventually snapped. Cataldo forged on alone and bravely held off the bunch, only to be cruelly caught within the final kilometre. It was actually blog pick Guillaume Martin who kicked off the action in the GC group and he managed to get a bit of a gap over what remained over the peloton. However, Latour came to the front and pulled like crazy before the other Martin (Dan) set off in pursuit. It was a stinging attack that only a handful could follow but he almost rode with some inexperience as he just kept riding on the front which set things up perfectly in the sprint to the line for eventual stage winner Alaphilippe.

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Dan Martin finished in second with Thomas rounding out the day’s podium, with Bardet completing the quartet that finished together.

Interestingly, Kwiatkowski was dropped a little on the run in so it is Moscon who takes over yellow jersey duties, with the Pole and Thomas just 6 seconds back. Sky still very much in the driving seat for this race then. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

It is the easiest of the 4 days in the mountains when looking at the climbing metres, as there are only 2600m of ascent throughout the 130km stage.

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The day starts off with the Cat-2 climb of Côte de Naysord which averages 8.5% for 3.7km. It’s then followed by a false-flat plateau before the Cols des Mouilles which is another short but sharp climb, averaging 7.2% for 3.8km. They’ll then face my favourite oxymoron a rolling plateau, before the road eventually heads downwards after roughly 27km. Given the testing start, I’m sure plenty of riders will be on the rollers!

It is then pretty much flat all day until the final climb of Valmorel.

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A very steady climb that should suit those that can get into a rhythm, the length and gradients do favour a more traditional mountain goat to go well too though. It should be an interesting battle between the two different types of GC riders we have here.

How will the stage pan out?

With a frantic day today and knowing what is to come, I’m sure some in the bunch will want an easier afternoon out tomorrow. Will they get that?

Well, it really depends on the approach of two teams: Sky and AG2R.

Personally I think Sky will want to keep their powder dry for the weekend as their domestiques will need to defend a lot on the tough stages we have so any extra energy saved will be very useful. But then again, once through the first 30km, tomorrow is easy up until the final climb so it will only need a couple of riders making tempo to keep things in check. AG2R showed today that they are willing to ride for Bardet and tomorrow’s finish climb on paper suits him more than what we had today. The same question can be asked of them though, will they want to save some energy for some crazy racing at the weekend?

There is then of course the chance that it takes 50km for the break to form again at which point we’ll only have 80km left and not long for the morning move to get an advantage. That will then possibly entice teams into pulling to bring them back, who originally might not have if the break went within the first 30km.

It’s another stage that is a coin toss for me in terms of if a break makes it or not. I could easily argue for either case, which I kind of have done above. Got myself in a right tizz here deciding what will happen!

Hmm, I’ll go with the break sticking, but it really needs to form early-ish and for no-one to be within 5/6 minutes on GC so that Sky take their foot off the gas, which unfortunately means no Guillaume Martin, shame. Time to play that game again…

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Tony Gallopin.

If AG2R don’t want to help chase all day then the best thing for them to do is get a rider into the morning move and sit back in the peloton while the others do the work. Gallopin is far enough down not to be a real GC threat but he is a good enough climber and rouleur to make it stick from the break. He had a very strong start to the year but he has since struggled to be at his best and his performance in Paris Nice was disappointing due to an illness he picked up. With his sights set on the Tour, he will want to show well here.

Peter Kennaugh.

He missed the opening part of the season due to a “physical and psychological issue” after his jaunt in Australia but he returned to racing in Romandie. Since then, he has shown no real sign of form but has stated that his legs are returning to what they used to be like. If he wants to make the Bora Tour squad then he needs to deliver a big performance at this race and tomorrow looks the stage best suited to him. Who can forget his win from the break up Alpe d’Huez in this race last year?

Jelle Vanendert.

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The Lotto Soudal rider was fourth on that day but this season seems to be going much better for him, he has been in a rich vein of form in the past couple of months. His lowest finishing position in the Ardennes was 11th place, which included a podium finish in Fleche. After taking a month off racing, he returned at the recent Tour of Belgium and won the queen stage there. The climb at the end of tomorrow’s stage might be too long for him normally but it all depends on who he is up against, I expect Lotto Soudal to be attacking anyway.

Lucas Hamilton.

The neo-pro has impressed me a lot so far in his outings this year with a good showing in Coppi e Bartali his best result. He finished 2nd at the Baby Giro last year and followed it up with a 4th place at the Tour de l’Avenir: he is talented, that’s for sure. A pure climber it would seem, if he manages to infiltrate a break made up mostly of rouleurs then he has a good shot of taking a stunning win.

GC Contenders

If we don’t see a break make it then it is hard to see past a Bardet v Thomas battle for the stage. Both have looked strong and I could make arguments for both on this terrain but I would side with Thomas in his current shape. We could possibly see Alaphilippe competing for the win given that it is only one big climb but I think he’ll just fall short. I’m preparing to eat my words here tomorrow afternoon.

Prediction

AG2R to win the day, but it will be Gallopin from the break who will be victorious.

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Betting

Unsure as to how tomorrow will go so just making a play on the breakers. Will look in-play for GC riders if it is going to be the stage honours for them.

0.6pt WIN Gallopin @ 125/1

0.3pt WIN Vanendert @ 300/1

0.2pt WIN Hamilton @ 500/1

0.3pt WIN Kennaugh @ 300/1

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 4 Preview: Chazey-sur-Ain › Lans-en-Vercors

Today’s Recap

A group of blokes went faster, much, much faster than the other groups of blokes. Sky were even more dominant than I thought they would be today, beating BMC by 38 seconds with third placed team Lotto Soudal coming home 53 seconds behind.

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Annoyingly Mitchelton finished 3 seconds down on Soudal in the end to make it an abysmal afternoon. Looking at the split times, it would appear they went out too fast and suffered for it in the end. Oh well, moving on, again!

Team Sky are now in a very strong position GC wise with 4 competent climbers occupying the 1-4 spots in the standings. There is still plenty of racing left though for some to challenge them so let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders on stage 4.

The Route

Tomorrow marks the start of 4 days in the mountains for the riders.

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With 3200m of elevation, it isn’t the toughest test they will face this week but the stage is back loaded with climbing. Don’t expect much to happen until around the 55km to go mark when the ascent of the Col u Mont Noir begins. Arguably one of the toughest climbs in the race, it averages just under 7% for 17.5km.

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As you can see the climb is quite irregular with the percentage of each kilometre constantly changing, but it does mostly stay between the 6-9% range. The toughest gradients come in the middle third of the ascent so if there is any major damage to be done, this will be the place, as it gets slightly easier near the top.

A fast descent follows before the road goes up in steps towards the finish. The initial uncategorised drag is 9.5km at 3.5%, before the oxymoronic rolling-plateau, which is followed by the final climb to the finish line.

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Depending on how aggressively the previous part of the race has been approached, the 4.8km at 7.5% climb could see some GC splits but it is most likely to bear witness to a group of favourites coming to the line together.

How will the race pan out?

There are significant time gaps in the GC after today’s TTT but that was almost expected!

I’ll be intrigued to see if anyone throws the kitchen sink at it tomorrow because there are still three very hard stages to come on Friday through Sunday. Tomorrow’s stage is the most traditional mountain stage as well, coming in at 181km whereas the other remaining days are 130km or less. A lot is expected of these short stages from the organisers and the press, so there is a chance that teams already have one eye on them and might not risk everything tomorrow.

With that said though, Col du Mont Noir is arguably the hardest climb in the race so a lot of riders can be put into difficulty there. The only issue with that is a team will need a good few domestiques left to push the pace on the uncategorised drag and rolling terrain before the final climb itself. If not, it is just a wasted effort.

Sky might play it defensively, knowing what is to come, particularly on Saturday and Sunday but then again, they could be aggressive and send someone on the attack and force other teams to chase. That’s quite unlike them though.

I would love to see someone attack from far out, let’s say Dan Martin for example, but I just think it would be a foolish move to make with tricky valley roads and climbs to negotiate before the actual finish climb.

Therefore I think we’ll see a fairly controlled pace on Mont Noir from Sky, keeping things together going into last ascent. At just under 5km they should have enough firepower to hold things together for the majority of the ascent too and it might be in the final kilometre that we see an attack from a GC rider. Even if they break the Sky stranglehold, they won’t gain more than 15 seconds on them there. It could even come down to a 5-6 GC rider sprint, as I alluded to before.

There is a chance that the break makes it all the way tomorrow but it all depends on how determined Sky are to bring it back together, or if they keep it on a tight-ish leash, who takes the bait and works in the final 40km.

If so, some names to look out for include De Gendt (obviously), Cummings (needs a good performance at some point this race), Gaudu (if he’s recovered from his hand injury), G. Martin (if someone high-up-ish on GC wants to get into the move).

GC Battle

I don’t think anything will come to fruition on Mont Noir so it will all come down to the final climb and we’ll either see a controlled pace from Sky that will lead to an all out last kilometre, or, there will be attacks at the bottom that possibly might be let go dependant on how far down the rider is on GC. Then again, Sky aren’t known for letting that happen too much in races so most likely they’ll be brought back for an all out battle in the final kilometre.

Well, looks like it will be an all out battle in the final kilometre then…

Alaphilippe – If the pace on MN isn’t high then he is stage favourite as a 5km climb is no issue for him, it is when back to back climbs are taken at pace that I worry for him. In a sprint to the line it will be tough for any GC guy to beat him.

Yates – Possibly the only rider here confident of going against Alaphilippe in an uphill sprint on a climb, the Mitchelton rider is very explosive when needed. He’s slowly been building his form looking ahead to the Tour. Can he produce what his brother did in the Giro?

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D. Martin – He’s been awful this year, I’m not going to beat around the bush. Having only managed to top 10s all season, a big result is needed this race for a confidence booster. Normally this finish would be ideal for the Irishman.

Thomas – I think he’s flying at the moment and would not be surprised to see him win tomorrow. He would have won the prologue and he was strong today in the TTT – it will be interesting to see how that relates to climbing legs though.

Bardet – The rider everyone will be watching, he has said he is here to win the race. Currently sitting 1’52 behind Kwiatkowski, some of that deficit needs to be cut tomorrow. Capable of a stinging uphill attack, he has a good chance.

Zakarin – Will we see a #ZakAttack? With the uphill finish he will certainly fancy it compared to some of the days that are filled with treacherous descents. At 2 minutes down, he won’t be immediately marked.

Prediction

The remnants of the break to make it all the way with Guillaume Martin taking a surprising stage win after beating De Gendt on the final climb.

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Maybe, who knows.

GC wise, Thomas to stamp his authority on the race.

Betting

De Gendt too short for my liking so

1pt WIN G Martin @ 66/1

1pt WIN Gaudu @ 40/1 (hoping he’s recovered from his crash)

Might back a GC rider in-play.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 3 Preview: Pont-de-Vaux › Louhans-Châteaurenaud

Today’s Recap

Despite the spirited attempts of morning breakee Stalnov, we ended up with a reduced bunch sprint this afternoon of around 80 riders. After coming home third on yesterday’s stage, Ackermann made amends and proved what a good talent he is, taking home a rather commanding victory.

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A rejuvenated Boasson Hagen sprinted for second place with Stage 1 winner Impey coming home in third. A result that puts the Mitchelton rider into Yellow for tomorrow.

Speaking of yellow jersey’s, the previous leader of the race Kwiatkowski crashed within the final 2km today and sustained some superficial injuries but nothing too serious it would seem. It might have a bit of an effect in the coming days though but who knows.

As for the blog pick Teunissen he finished in the second group, possibly suffering from some of the illness that is floating around the Sunweb camp. No idea why I didn’t pick Ackermann or Impey though as I said in yesterday’s preview it was hard to see past them, sometimes I just make weird decisions!

Anyway, let’s move on and have a look at what is in store for the riders and a day which will shake the GC up a bit.

The Route

An almost pan-flat, dead-straight team time trial course awaits the riders.

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They start in the town of Pont-de-Vaux and head in a north-east direction towards Louhans-Chateaurenaud.

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At just under 35km it mimics the distance they will face in the Tour in a months time, so it will be a good test in race conditions for the teams.

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There is a slightly tricky finish that awaits the riders but aside from that there is nothing else to talk about route wise. It is a pretty straight forward day out in the saddle: go as fast as you can for the whole course!

Weather Watch

Often a TT or TTT can be decided by varying weather conditions but it appears that the majority of the teams will get the same treatment tomorrow so there should be no surprises due to stronger winds at one point in the day etc.

There is potential for a tiny spot of rain but it will only be a very short shower, while the wind looks set to remain a constant ~13km/h gentle breeze from the south – meaning a slight cross tailwind for the run. It does turn around slightly for those later on which might mean a little bit more a tailwind, but it shouldn’t be much.

Contenders

Team Sky.

After their strong display in the prologue, it would appear that Sky have got over their Giro TT bleep and returned to their early season dominance of efforts against the clock. Saying that, they did only manage to come third in the TTT at Tirreno so they aren’t unbeatable. Looking at their squad though they have a team full of guys who can push a big gear on the flat, with Geoghegan Hart being the only passenger but even then he delivered a good individual performance in California. They start as the favourites but they’ll need to get through an afternoon where they all stay on their bikes, the lack of corners tomorrow will help them…

Mitchelton Scott.

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A surprise second place in Tirreno, the team of the current race leader have a solid squad but it does look weaker than their effort in Tirreno, I think. They’ve swapped out big TT engines such as Durbridge and Bauer and although they’ve been replaced by strong riders like Edmondson and Howson, I don’t think they are as good in a TT. However with that said, they did take home the Hammer Series TTT with a squad that included Impey, Howson and Hamilton, all of whom are here. On that day they beat a fairly strong BMC by almost a minute. Write them off at your peril! I certainly won’t and I have somewhat changed my mind throughout this section. Hmmmmm. Going off last will give them the advantage of knowing their splits compared to the other teams.

BMC.

The TTT Kings: there are few team efforts against the clock that these guys don’t win and it would be a shock to see them not fighting for the top step of the podium tomorrow. However, their squad here looks to be more of a “B-team” as they are missing several of their star TT riders. I think this is the first TTT in a while where I’ve not been convinced that they will win it. Nonetheless, as a team they are the best at the discipline and therefore can’t be discounted.

Quick Step.

An outfit made up of strong, powerful riders but with no stand-out TT guy then they will need to rider very cohesively as a unit. A lot of pressure will be on the shoulders of Jungels, Terpstra and Alaphilippe. Normally a danger for a podium spot, I think it will be hard for them to go any further than that tomorrow.

Lotto Jumbo.

Really hit or miss, who knows what Jumbo will turn up tomorrow. With the likes of Boom, Van Emden and Powless they should be able to deliver a good time but a podium would be a very good result, I’ll be shocked if they did any better.

I think the 5 teams listed above should be the top 5 on the day but there is room for the likes of Jumbo to replaced by their Lotto counterpart but that’s about it.

Prediction

A battle between Sky, BMC and Mitchelton for the win, they are the best teams here. I’ve almost made a complete U-turn with how I felt about Mitchelton before the start of this but I’m sticking to my guns, Sky will win.

2018 Tirreno-Adriatico - Stage 1 TTT

As was shown in the prologue, they have the best strength in-depth and equipment for this type of effort. Unless of course Thomas and Kwiatkowski are feeling a bit worse for wear after their crashes then one of the other two has a good chance of taking the win so step up Mitchelton in that case.

Betting

4pts Mitchelton Top 3 at 4/1

6pts Mitchelton to beat Lotto Soudal at 5/6

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think wins tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 2 Preview: Montbrison › Belleville en Beaujolais

Today’s Recap

The morning break of three never had a chance and it was actually Vital Concept who kept them in check before Quick Step came to help out later on. The gap tumbled and the break was caught once we were onto the circuit. On the final ascent Teuns launched a probing attack but was reeled in, however, Alaphilippe then launched a strong counter that was followed by race-leader Kwiatkowski. That move was then neutralised and a greatly reduced bunch plummeted down towards the final kilometre. There were a few more probing attacks but none of them got much leeway and things were set up for a sprint.

Alaphilippe opened it up early but he was no match for Impey who surged passed the Quick Step rider and took a very dominant win. It looked easy for him in the end!

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Ackermann rounded out the podium which was a very impressive result from him, much better than team-mate McCarthy. As for blog pick Kwiatkowski, it looked as if he just ran out of steam and didn’t have the kick to match the others at the finish, possibly paying for his earlier efforts. Interestingly, we didn’t see anything of Impey until the final few hundred metres, he hid away perfectly, conserving energy and going all in for the sprint. Risky but ultimately smart riding. Can he double up tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Another rolling day that is littered with a few climbs in the second half of the stage.

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With 2300m of climbing it is similar to today’s stage in that regard but the finish is much easier. The climbs aren’t overly difficult but the majority of them are longer than what they faced today. You can see their lengths and gradients on the profile above.

Arguably the toughest ascent of the day is the Col du Fût d’Avenas which so happens to be the last categorised climb.

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It will be a fairly steady effort for the riders though and the Cat-3 ranking might be a bit generous – it’s no Spanish or Italian Cat-3, that’s for sure!

With the peak coming at just under 30km to go, the riders will face a long descent that is interspersed with a few kickers and plateaus. They don’t really stop descending until the final 4km of the day.

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A fairly simple run in but a double roundabout just under the flamme rouge will line things out and it is important to not be too far back here.

How will the stage pan out?

If today was one for the puncheurs, then tomorrow does look more like a traditional sprint, with the flat run to the line. However, given that the riders pretty much climb/descend for 70km before a drawn out descent to the line, then we could see some of the sprinters put into difficulty. It all depends on who sets the pace on the ascents.

There is more of a chance that the break makes it compared to today’s stage in my opinion. This afternoon we saw Sky happy to take a back seat and I think they will adopt a similar approach tomorrow, letting other teams chase it down for a stage win. If no one takes full control then Sky might just ride tempo and not let things get silly, knowing that they will more than likely take the time back on whoever is up the road later on in the week.

I think we’ll once again see Vital Concept take to the front to try to control things but they will need better luck (Reza’s crash today) and more numbers with COquard in the finale to set him up well. Likewise, we saw Quick Step help to control things today and they will probably chase for either Jakobsen, riding fairly slowly, or they will try and make things difficult to set up Alaphilippe. It will be interesting to see if Mitchelton and Bora now help with pace setting as Impey was imperious today and has a good chance of going into yellow and of course Ackermann was a bit of a surprise package in third, with tomorrow seemingly suiting him more.

Contenders and Pretenders

I’ve pretty much just listed the majority of them above!

Impey – Clearly in great shape just now, we might see Mitchelton drill it in an attempt to reduce the bunch down to a similar size to what we had today. Has a good chance of doubling up.

Coquard – Disappointing today after his team did a lot of the hard work. He should be able to cope with the climbs but will need someone to help lead him out in the finish, I don’t trust his wheel surfing abilities.

Alaphillipe – Needs it tough but has a chance if that’s the case. Can’t afford to waste energy with pointless attacks.

Jakobsen – Needs it to be an ok tempo, otherwise he will be dropped.

Bauhaus – Will be dropped.

Teunissen – My dark horse as I expect him to be sprinting instead of the aforementioned Bauhaus. He was very impressive at the start of the year and seems to be finally delivering on some of the potential he showed early in his career.

Kwiatkowski – See Alaphillipe.

Boasson Hagen – Form seems a bit iffy but he is not a million miles off. Normally he should contend.

Keukeleire – In great form at the moment, he will need it to be selective but he will fancy his chances in a flat sprint against the guys here.

Break Candidate(s)

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A nice and more than likely deliberate 6’46 time loss for De Gendt today. Expect to see him out there tomorrow, along with the likes of Teklehaimanot and Brandle. 

Prediction

Things will most likely come back for a reduced sprint and it will be hard to see past Impey and Ackermann after today’s showing. Yet, I’ll go for a bit of a surprise result with Teunissen winning the gallop.

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He seems to be coming into form at the moment with a good result in the prologue and a commendable 9th place today. Watching back the sprint from this afternoon he kicked and looked to be coming up the inside but was blocked off and had to sit back in the saddle before stamping on the pedals again. As he crossed the line he shook his head, I think he knows a better result was possible with good positioning. If he can follow the right wheel, I think he can surprise from an 80 rider group…

Betting

1pt EW Teunissen @ 40/1

 

I would have backed TDG if he was 20+ but anything less than that is too short.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Valence › Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert

Today’s Recap

A bloke went faster than some other blokes around the town of Valence.

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Kwiatkowski delivered a stunning ride to beat Van Emden by a second, after the Dutchman had spent most of the early afternoon in the hot seat. Team Sky returned to their dominant TT performances of the Spring with Moscon coming home in third.

They could have quite possibly had 3 guys in the first 4 as Thomas crashed with 3.3km to go and ultimately finished 21 seconds down on his team-mate. Going from the rolling clock he was just getting back onto his bike at around the 20 second mark after his fall so considering all the lost momentum then he certainly would have been competing for the win. I do find it weird though that he crashed on a completely dry course on a rather innocuous corner; he’s making a bad habit of that!

As for the blog pick, Bevin finished in 5th which was respectable but just not good enough for the win. Boom was a disappointing after being only 2 seconds down at the split but he faded quite badly in the second half.

Jungles obviously lost by a second to Brandle which means I’m continuing off from where I left off at the Giro (not counting the last day winning hiccup with Bennett). Oh well, on to tomorrow and what looks like an interesting and unpredictable stage!

The Route

A fairly rolling day out in the saddle with some interestingly positioned climbs in the finale.

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The riders will be climbing from the gun, facing the toughest ascent of the day, the Col de Leyrisse. At an average of 4.5% for 8.5km then it isn’t Alpine by any means, but it will certainly have a few guys worried, especially if they’ve been watching the Giro. A short descent follows before the road drags up again at roughly 3% for another 4km.

We then have a longer descent which is followed by a 2-for-1 categorised climb deal: not sure it’s an offer I’d like to see. For the pros though the ~4.8% average for 11km shouldn’t be too much of an issue and we’ll no doubt see a nice controlled tempo.

After that the road rolls with a few small rises but it is mainly flat, before we get into the final 40km which features 3 categorised climbs, albeit just Cat-4s. More importantly though, they will complete a couple of laps of a circuit so the riders will be familiar with the parcours the second time round.

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There are two main rises in the circuit, the first is a fairly steady 1.9km at 3.4% before the slightly tougher second climb that averages 4.3% for 1.5km, with a few steeper pitches thrown in early on. Neither are very difficult and we won’t see any GC action but they do offer the perfect opportunity for a late attack from a puncheur.

The start of the descent is a little technical but for the majority of it the riders will have to pedal it in the big ring.

The final few hundred metres are uphill so any sprint will have to be timed perfectly.

How will the stage pan out?

It’s one of those days where anything could happen: breakaway, late attack or reduced sprint are all possible outcomes and equally as likely. Well saying that, with Sky now in the race lead I wonder if we will see a typically controlled stage from them and closing everything down to protect that yellow jersey? Consequently, I think the likelihood of a morning breakaway is much reduced but the chances of a late attack sticking are still quite high.

I’ll go 10% (Breakaway), 35 % (Late attack), 55% (Reduced sprint).

Sprinters

The race isn’t blessed with a great selection of sprinters but to be fair, who can blame them – there are only a couple of days that *might* end in a bunch kick and the rest are all GC days. Looking at ProCyclingStats, these are the top 15 sprinters here…

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Definitely not a stacked field when Nibali is the 8th guy on the list!

Out of them all, I would only class Ackermann, Jakobsen and Bauhaus as pure sprinters, while Impey, EBH and Coquard are “tough sprinters” then the rest are puncheurs or lead-out men, and Nibali.

I think the climbs will see the chances of the pure sprinters disappear tomorrow so it will be over to the tough sprinters and the puncheurs to battle it out on the run in to the line.

There are two riders that I like for tomorrow’s stage and one of them is currently in yellow.

Michal Kwiatkowski.

This type of parcours and finish is perfect for the Pole as he possesses a fast enough kick to compete with most, especially with the riders we have here. I expect Sky to control the race and hope to set him up for the sprint and gain some bonus seconds as every little bit of time here and there will be very helpful for the weekend. His performance today shows that he is in good form and the rise up to the line definitely favours him.

Jay McCarthy.

One of my favourite riders in the peloton, the Aussie is really developing into a great rider and tomorrow’s finish looks like a carbon copy of the uphill drag he won in Itzulia. This is his first race back after a period of rest and training after the Ardennes classics but a 34th place today was a pretty good result by his standards so I think he’ll be going well.

Late Attackers

As for late attackers, pick a name out of a hat as to who might give it a go. We’ll probably see something from De Gendt, Valgren and Terpstra. The latter of whom I think might actually have a chance as he delivered a good time today and was lively in the recent Hammer series.

Prediction

Sky are in Yellow so everything is controlled and Kwiatkowski doubles up, simple!

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Betting

1pt EW Kwiatkowski @ 16/1

1pt EW McCarthy @ 16/1

0.5pt WIN Terpstra @ 125/1

(All with Bet365)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? It should be a good finish to the stage. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Prologue Preview: Valence -> Valence

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Prologue Preview: Valence -> Valence

The Route

A pretty much pan-flat 6.6km hit out around Valence. As with all TTs I’ve made the route on Strava/Veloviewer and that’s the profile I’ll be using here as you can’t really make out much in the official one! You can of course access the Veloviewer profile through this link.

DauphinePrologue

The route is like a very stretched out basin, with the riders descending for the first part before they regain the altitude in the latter half, well, over a few hundred metre segment. That is the most challenging part of the route, the 660m section near the end of the day which averages a very modest 3.3%. Not really that tough then is it? But of course, you want to have something left to power through it, especially when the road rises after a turn so their speed will be knocked down ever so slightly.

You can actually watch a streetview recce of the whole route in the following video. I’d recommend 0.5x speed to get a better understanding.

 

I would ignore the end of the video ever so slightly though as I’m fairly certain the riders will be on the road, not the cobbled pavement that is parallel to it.

prologue-route

One thing to note from it though is that the majority of the roads, although sweeping, will be able to be taken at full speed. However, there is a sequence of a nasty and tight turns around the 2km mark which I’m certain the riders will be trying to perfect their lines through when they have a practice run in the morning as a good amount of time/speed can be gained or lost there.

With all that said though, the course looks as if it should suit the power riders in the peloton.

Contenders

Jos Van Emden.

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The Jumbo rider starts as the bookmakers favourite and in this field it is understandable why, he always seems to go very well in these short efforts against the clock. One of the best in the world at a <10km TT, without Dennis here then he is the justifiable favourite. The one question mark that lingers over his head is: how much did the Giro take out of him? We’ve seen “Tour legs” be a thing in the past where riders who go well at the Tour notoriously go well in San Sebastian not long after. Can Van Emden reap the benefits?

Lars Boom.

Van Emden isn’t the only Jumbo rider who could post a good time, with “puncheur” Boom capable of delivering a very good effort when needed. He seems to be slowly getting back to good form after his heart operation in the off-season, stating that good sensations are returning. In Romandie he was very close to the top of the order at the intermediate split before a mechanical ruined his chance of a good result in that prologue, I expect more from him here.

Tom Bohli.

So close to a win in that Romandie prologue, the flat course should suit the young BMC rider even more. A strong rider who seems to produce his best results in short TTs, I would not be surprised to see him in the top 5 tomorrow, or even fighting for the win.

Patrick Bevin.

The second BMC rider to make the list, he has really upped his game this year since the change of team, with 8/14/2/2 being his results against the clock this season. Tomorrow’s power course should be up his street and like Bohli, I would be surprised not to see him near the top of the order. It was at the prologue in Paris Nice a couple of years ago that he broke onto the scene, can he go better than his results so far and take a WT win?

Victor Campenaerts.

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He was bitterly disappointed in the Giro to have missed out on the Pink Jersey on the opening day but his performance in the second TT was pretty poor and he duly abandoned the race the day after. There is no doubt that Campenaerts is a very talented rider but I mentioned it in the Giro TT preview: he just doesn’t seem to win enough.

Geraint Thomas.

Flying at the start of the year, he was then sub-par in Romandie so who knows where his form will be at the moment. Apparently he is approaching the Tour as if he is going to be leader but I can’t really see that being the case, so he might arrive at this race a bit sharper than others, wanting to take advantage of their form. Sky were flying as a team in TTs this year up until the Giro which was odd. Thomas could pull any result out of the bag here. Likewise, the same can be said for Kwiatkowski and Castroviejo, even Van Baarle. We could see 4 of them in the top 10 again, or we could get the Giro vintage of Sky in TTs.

Mathias Brandle. 

Crashing out while practicing the Romandie prologue was not ideal for the Trek rider as it meant he missed out of competing at the Giro. The Dauphiné will be his first race back after that collarbone injury so it will be interesting to see where his form is at. The short power course is good for him (like many) but I think he himself will fall short due to lack of form.

Others to look out for who might cause a surprise include Gougeard, Jungels and De Gendt.

Prediction

The form TT team will take a win with the form TT rider who has been knocking at the door this season, Patrick Bevin to step up to the big time leagues here!

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The podium will then be filled with Jumbo riders.

GC Preview in 50 Words

TTT to set the scene. Four mountain top finishes to create some gaps. Short stages to entice the action, maybe too many, damp squib? GC battle hopefully should go down to final day. Numbers will be key. Sky dominant team – Thomas to win and prove himself before the Grand Boucle.

Betting

1pt EW Bevin @ 12/1

1pt EW Boom @ 20/1

Both with Bet365.

I also think Brandle might be a bit undercooked so willing to take him on in a H2H with Jungels.

4pts Jungels to beat Brandle @ 11/8 (Ladbrokes)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 21 Preview: Rome -> Rome

Today’s Recap

The break was finally given some leeway today despite for a while it looked as if Astana might decide against it. After shepherding Yates home yesterday, Nieve set his stall out attacking the rest of his breakaway companions, eventually riding solo to the line for what was a comfortable win in the end.

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Fellow breakers Gesink and Grossschartner rounded out the podium on the day. Behind, despite some back and forth action, there were no cracks from the GC favourites on the final climb and they all rode in together. Well, aside from Pinot who looked desperately ill and dropped way out of the top 10 as a result of a +25minute time loss.

One stage left to go but that is the GC battle over and Froome is our champion. Hey, at least I got something right this race! It doesn’t sit right with me and I think I’ve made that clear throughout this season but here we are anyway, and I guess we all just have to get on with it.

So for one last time, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

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Pan-flat criterium in Rome to finish.

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A couple of sketchy turns in the closing kilometres but with an almost straight final kilometre, we should see a fairly organised sprint.

Contenders – a.k.a Viviani v Bennett

Viviani has got the ciclamino jersey all but won as Bennett needs to win the stage and pick up some intermediate sprint points, with the Quick Step man not getting any points throughout the day.

Both have shown good speed throughout this race but over the recent sprint stages I think Bennett has looked faster but Viviani has the better lead-out.

With that said and taking into account that Viviani only has to stay on his bike and not take too many risks in the finale then that swings things in favour of the Irishman.

Prediction

Bennett to win.

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Thank You

Although it has been one of the most frustrating Grand Tours to predict and write about that I’ve covered since starting this blog a couple of years ago, it has been enjoyable and unpredictable to watch. I want to thank every one of you for continuing to read the posts daily: it keeps me motivated to plough on and hopefully I’ve produced some enjoyable and engaging content over the past few weeks. On a personal note, the blog viewership has surpassed last year’s Giro by a good amount and even beat last year’s Tour. Onwards from here!

One last time for me to plug my BuyMeABeer section if you want to help rebuild my bank balance after this month haha. If you wish to donate anything then please do so here.

I’ll be taking a few days break but I’ll be back for the Dauphiné which starts in what seems no time. Anyway, for one last time this Giro,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 20 Preview: Susa -> Cervinia

Today’s Recap

Well shit, that was insane.

Love him or hate him, you have to admire just how ballsy and mental that ride from Foome was today. Team Sky set him up perfectly on the Finestre and the Brit attacked once onto the gravel section, with still a good portion of the climb to go, let alone the remaining 70 odd kilometres. But he did it, unbelievably, he managed to hold off the remaining GC group of Dumoulin/Pinot/Lopez/Carapaz but a good bit of that can be attributed to the lack of organised chase, especially between the two young jersey riders.

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His time gap when he crossed the line was 3 minutes to second placed finisher Carapaz with Pinot finishing another 7 seconds behind. More importantly though, Dumoulin was even further behind and Froome now consequently leads the race by 40 seconds which should be enough to see him crowned champion.

A few riders had bad days in the saddle with Pozzovivo losing his podium position but Yates had a terrible day and he’s dropped down to 18th place on GC.

It will have been a tough day out for all though as the last rider home came in over 45 minutes down. Not fun. Good thing there is an easy stage tomorrow, oh wait…

The Route

It is easy to start off with to be fair but the final third is very cruel!

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130kms of mainly flat ground which will see a fight to get into the break before three tough cat-1 climbs in the closing 80km of the day to play host to any final changes in GC.

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First up is the Col Tsecore and it is arguably the toughest climb the riders will face all day, averaging 7.7% for its 16kms. That includes a 3km section of 11.4%. I would say it is too far out for any action but you never know. Once over the crest the riders will plunge straight down for the following 20kms on what could be a treacherous descent.

No time for respite though, because after a kilometre or so of valley roads they once again start heading upwards, this time for the Col Sant Pantaléon.

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Another climb that averages north of 7%, this time 7.2%, for its 16.5km, the riders will have weary legs once they reach the top no doubt. With the toughest section coming in the closing 2km, it is the perfect launchpad for an attack before committing full gas to the descent.

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The finish climb to Cervinia is the easiest of the day but with the tough double-header before and taking into account just how aggressive this Giro has been, a few rider’s might get some nasty surprises from their legs here.

How will the stage pan out?

Today well and truly turned the race on its head, so much so that Froome’s 40 second gap to Dumoulin seems too big for the Dutchman to overcome. Especially if the Sky rider is as good as he was today. We saw just how strong his team was this afternoon and it will take a lot for Sunweb to shake off Poels, Henao and Elissonde. We’ll no doubt see a vintage Sky mountain train tomorrow where they ride tempo to deter any attacks on the first two climbs. It depends on Dumoulin’s mood but he said post-stage today that he felt pessimistic about tomorrow, which to me signals that he knows he’s lost.

Sky will be happy for a large break to get up the road with no dangermen from GC and they’ll just control things behind.

Tomorrow is 90% a breakaway day but it all depends on who makes the move. If someone on the cusp of the top 10 sneaks into the move then we’ll see whoever is going to be knocked out of that position’s team chasing to hold onto that spot. It’s disappointing to see, but a Top 10 in a GT means a lot for some of these teams and riders.

The only real dangerous riders to watch out for in that situation though are Formolo, Geniez, Dennis and Poels.

If none of them make the break then I can see it winning by 10+ minutes again.

Making the break

Something that is a lot easier than it sounds but with everyone in the peloton knowing that a break is likely to stick, there will be a lot of fighting to get ahead. You need to be lucky with what move to follow but also need to manage your effort well and choose what break attempts to go in wisely.

Furthermore, we saw after Schachmann’s stage win that Van Poppel had tried to get into the break with one of their leader’s for the stage (probably Eg, knowing my luck), but he was not able to follow the Dutchman’s wheel. These things happen and it will be similar tomorrow where the morning terrain suits the rouleurs but to win the stage you need to go well uphill too.

Anyway, time to play everyone’s favourite game again.

TheBreakawayLottery

Jack Haig.

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With Yates well and truly out of the GC picture now, Mitchelton will probably go on the offensive tomorrow to try to win another stage. Haig impressed a lot in the Vuelta last year and he has continued that development this season, working incredibly well for his leader over the past few weeks. In the previous two stages we have had, the Aussie rider has taken it “easy” (well, as easy as it can be in a GT), so he should be a bit fresher than he was. We’ve seen so far in this race how strong he can be on the climbs and not many in the break will fancy their chances if he’s there.

Jose Goncalves.

I’ve not mentioned Mr #GoOnCalves for a while and that’s because he’s mainly been riding a really awkward race for me to do so, sitting on the cusp of the top 15 and too close on GC to try anything. Today he came home in a respectable 19th but at more than 26 minutes down on GC, he can finally go on the attack and be allowed some freedom. He is riding very well so far this race and has surpassed my expectations of what he could possibly do as a rider – can he take a stage to round it off?

Joe Dombrowski.

For old time’s sake. We’re into the final week of a Grand Tour and I’ve only mentioned Dombrowski once before so it feels right to do it again. The American has great powers of recovery and with a tough stage today, it should level the playing field a bit for him tomorrow. He has one of the best endurance engines I’ve seen in the peloton, and I genuinely think he’d be a contender in a 6-week race! The tricky climbs will see him at home tomorrow and would be great to see him finally deliver on that junior performance.

Carlos Betancur.

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Much to the dismay of his faithful following, Betancur dropped out of the top 20 on GC today after coming home 34 minutes down. Is he cooked, or saving himself for one final shot at stage glory? We all know what type of rider he can be when he wants, and he seems to be getting to that stage again. This race is normally a good stomping ground an I’m sure the majority of the cycling public would love to see the Colombian raise his arms at the end of the day.

Prediction

#GoOnCalves.

José-Gonçalves

That is all.

Betting

I think I should be giving out a gamble responsibly mission statement here. None of the prices really appeal to me just now so hoping they get better later.

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 19 Preview: Venaria Reale -> Bardonecchia

Today’s Recap

The Giro is the Giro.

In typical fashion we had a break made up mainly of rouleurs that was allowed to go and contest the stage win. I honestly have no idea what the teams who chased so fervently yesterday were doing today allowing a break get away today that had only a handful of climbers in it.

And after me backing him for yesterday’s stage Schachmann went on to win today. Sums this race up perfectly really!

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I will admit that it is quite nice that Morkov and Schachmann who are roomies, planned this move yesterday evening.

Plaza was second with Cattaneo in third.

It looked as if it was going to be a dull GC day but a series of attacks ultimately led to Yates having a mini-crisis, from which he lost 28 seconds to Dumoulin, Pozzovivo and Froome. Consequently it means that he is only the same margin ahead of the Sunweb rider going into a very tough double-header. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Arguably the hardest stage at the Giro, the riders will face 5000m of climbing throughout the afternoon.

stage-19-profile

Climbing from the gun, albeit gently to start off with, the riders will summit the Colle del Lys after 48km of racing. Plenty of time for riders to be shelled out the back if there is a big fight to get into the breakaway.

A long descent and a good portion of valley roads follows before this year’s Cima Coppi: the Colle delle Finestre.

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45 hairpins over 18.5km and a climb that averages roughly 9%. I suppose the riders can take some solace in the fact that at least it is steady…Oh, the second half of it is also on gravel roads. Just to add to the excitement.

Another quick and technical descent follows before the drag up to the ski station of Sestrière. However, it will be the easier ascent the will tackle this year so it shouldn’t amount to much.

It will be then over to the final climb to decide the day.

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It’s a tough one too as the Jaffereau averaging 9% for 7.2kms. With some of the steepest sections coming right at the end, it is perfect for an explosive lightweight climber. But after what they will have had to face before then, it might just be a case of who has anything left in the tank.

How will the stage pan out?

If Yates didn’t show any sign of weakness today then there would have been a chance that the break sticks all the way tomorrow. It still has a chance but given how aggressively I expect the other GC teams to race it now then you will need to be a very good climber to possibly hold on.

If I was Mitchelton I would play a very ballsy and risky game tomorrow. Everyone expects the likes of Sky, Sunweb and Bahrain to get a guy into the morning move to act as a bridge for their GC contender later on. So in that situation Mitchelton should just let the break get so far ahead that the rider up the road is redundant. Of course, this plan backfires a bit if lets say someone like Poels slips away.

Will we see any long-range attacks on the Finestre? I think that is a possibility but a rider will need a lot of team support ahead of them because there are still 70kms to the finish after that.

Of course, it is not just the ascents where attacks can be made and the technical descents may be just as pivotal tomorrow, especially if we get some of the rain that is forecast.

There is a good chance that things get brought back together and we have a very select group fight it out on the final climb, as the long valley roads in between the ascents might put an end to any rangey solo attacks.

Before today’s GC shake up I would have had this as a breakaway day in a 60:40 split, because of those valley roads. But after Yates’ few cracks appearing today, then I’ll reverse that and suggest it will be a GC rider who will take the win. Although I’m not completely discounting the break because it could still stick in the right situation.

Contenders

Tom Dumoulin.

Has he peaked perfectly for the final week? He certainly looked strong today but the final climb suited him very well. Tomorrow will be a big test for one of the heavier GC contenders but he seems to be in good form at the moment. With the gap down to just 28 seconds now, he will feel within touching distance of Yates, so he might not take as many risks as he would have done otherwise tomorrow.

Chris Froome.

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What’s the next best stage to win after Zoncoloan, probably the day with the Cima Coppi in it. Both Froome and Poels seem to be growing into this race which might worry their rivals but the Sky rider is probably too far back on GC to take the win. This is the Giro though, so who knows. He was attacking today and I think we might try to see a gutsy move from him on the Finestre tomorrow. The steep finishing climb will suit his washing machine cadence, that’s for sure.

Simon Yates.

Just a bad day, or something worse? He says that he should be fine tomorrow but will he really be. There’s only one way to find out and I’m sure we’ll all find out at the same time as he does tomorrow. I think he could bounce back, but he needs to not show any weakness until the final climb. It will be a big day for him and his team and unless he finds that flying form he had in the opening two weeks, it won’t be a stage win for him.

Domenico Pozzovivo.

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The Bahrain man has done a fantastic ride so far this Giro and finds himself currently sitting on the podium. He and his team will be very concerned with a reinvigorated Froome though but the Italian did seem to follow the Sky rider’s attack today with some ease. There has been a lot of talk throughout this Giro about his lack of support in the mountains after Siuitsou crashed before the race began. Will that show itself tommorrow?

Miguel Angel Lopez.

One of today’s stronger performers, the current young jersey holder produced an impressive climbing display on the one and only hill. He caught up to Poels in what seemed like no time, although it is hard to tell if he was waiting up for Froome a bit. Nonetheless, the Colombian seems to be really growing into the race and with the alititude involved tomorrow, he will be at home.

That’s it, all of the other GC top 20 have no chance of winning the stage.

Reichenbach Returns

After today’s calamitous affair I want to re-highlight Reichenbach again for tomorrow’s stage, because yaknow, Schachmann won the day after I had mentioned him so here’s hoping it is the same with Sebastien.

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I pointed out on Twitter that during the final slopes today he seemed to be the one setting tempo for Pinot bit considering we had a few attacks he wasn’t going full gas and I assumed that’s because Pinot was cooked. They were hoping to bluff it but as soon as the big guys came out to play the FDJ leader went backwards. Reichenbach stuck with him the whole climb but I just can’t see a way back for Pinot now. He is only going to go backwards. He and the team should reward his loyal domestique with some freedom to chase the stage win tomorrow.

Reichenbach is part of only a handful of guys who might win the day if it is not a GC contender, with the others being Aru, Ciccone and Woods.

Prediction

An Astana hail-mary, with all in for Lopez and we’ll see Superman fly!

Miguel-Angel-Lopez-2ª-tappa-Tour-of-the-Alps-2018-660x330

He is in great shape but also has the advantage of being far enough behind not to be an immediate threat.

Betting

Feck it, balls to the wall time.

2pts WIN Lopez @ 11/4 

1pt WIN Reichenbach @ 50/1

Plus 1pt on this treble…

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The 6pts on Bennett to beat Carapaz at 11/8.

I think tomorrow suits the Jumbo rider a lot more and Carapaz might lack the experience of going deep into a Grand Tour as a GC rider.

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 18 Preview: Abbiategrasso -> Prato Nevoso

Today’s Recap

The Giro happened, that’s what went on today.

After a fairly big group of riders managed to establish itself off the head of the peloton, Bora kept it on a bit of a leash hoping to hold it together for a sprint with Bennett. However, the gap kept extending until UAE decided to help as they had missed the move and it was consequently brought back together. This all happened in the first 30km by the way.

Another large group managed to escape again but this time the two big sprint teams were represented. Well, who would chase behind? A combination of a few teams that had missed the break such as Katusha and Trek but also some of the GC teams saw an end to the move because 16th placed Formolo was there. That move was brought back.

I then went out for an hour as I had a dentist appointment, hoping to arrive back to a calmed down day. Hahaha, how wrong was I. Once home I see an escape of 4 up the road that included Poels, LLS, De Marchi and Hermans, which I suppose could be called the break of the day.

They were never given much leeway though as some sprint teams contributed to the chase.

In a hectic and rain-soaked final kilometre it was Quick Step who came out the strongest, delivering Viviani the perfect lead-out and the Italian duly delivered.

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Bennett was the fastest finisher but could only manage second in the end, after he lost some positions in the closing kilometre and started from too far back. Bonifazio got up well for second and given the treacherous conditions, he wasn’t actually that much of a danger to his opponents for once.

The whole stage was just bonkers though and with an average speed of 46.51km/h today, there will be some sore legs tomorrow. Good thing it’s not a mountain top finish, oh, wait…

The Route

Flat, little hill, more flat, BIG HILL.

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I’ll not beat about the bush here, this is all about the final climb to Prato Nevoso.

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It’s not the toughest climb the riders will face at an average of just 6.9% for 13.9km but given that it is the only real ascent of the day then we could see a few rider’s legs respond oddly, especially after today.

However, with the second-half of the climb “only” averaging 6.6% it is hard to believe that there will be big GC gaps but with this being the third week of a GT and given how crazy this Giro has been so far, there might just be.

How will the stage pan out?

It is an easy day for the GC teams to control if they want to set up a showdown on the final climb. The one issue with that is just how unflappable our current Maglia Rosa looks and how perfect the final climb is for him. If they try to keep it together then there is a very real chance that Yates just sprints for the win and extends his lead even more.

I think the outcome of the day relies on the approach of Sky and Mitchelton. The former will sniff the podium and potentially more, so they might want to hold things together for a Froome attack on the final slopes. We saw just how lively they were today. The latter know they have the best climber here and he could get another famous stage win while in Pink but they don’t need to do that. He and the team just need to ride a defensive race, something which they haven’t done at all so far and that has me a bit worried they might try something tomorrow. Surely not though, as the following two stages will see their squad put under a whole lot of pressure and they will need as relaxing a day as possible.

If the morning break goes and features riders from UAE, Astana and Sky that are no threat to the overall, then I see it going all the way. They will struggle to get a stage win otherwise and if they are going to attempt a raid on Friday/Saturday, need the majority of their firepower fresh for then.

Could this finally be the stage where a breakaway sticks? A day that on paper looks like one which could be controlled easily for a GC showdown. Would be typical of this Giro.

Time to play everyone’s most hated game (I imagine by now anyway)…

TheBreakawayLottery

Break Contenders

It will be interesting to see the aspirations of some riders tomorrow. The finish would be ideal for someone like Ciccone or Aru, but will they save themselves for a day with more mountain points on offer or a more prestigious set of mountains. I think so…

Jan Hirt.

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Astana have been on the offensive the past few days and seem really keen for a stage win. There is a chance Miguel Angel Lopez could take the day if they keep things together but with a strong Yates then their best chance lies in the break. After his barnstorming appearance at this race in 2017, Hirt has been quiet so far this year, working ably to help support his leaders. Last year we saw how strong he was in the final week and if he arrives at the foot of the climb with a few minutes advantage over the peloton then they won’t be able to catch him.

Sebastien Reichenbach.

Super impressive in helping Pinot on both the Zoncolan and Sappada stage finishes, the FDJ man has slowly ridden his way into form here. With his GC captain losing a bucket load of time in the TT and complaining of felling unwell, he might be allowed the freedom to chase his own result here. In fact, he was one of the riders who made one of the many breakaways today so his legs must be feeling good. In the right breakaway, he has a big chance of taking a career-changing win.

Niklas Eg.

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My proper wild card of the list as he is only in his first Grand Tour and in his neo-pro year but boy is he talented. Last year he finished 4th on GC at the baby Giro and then followed that up with a 3rd place at the Tour de l’Avenir, clearly he can climb well. In the opening part of the season he impressed many with a 7th place finish on Jabel Hafeet, but it was his performance in Croatia that really stood out. On the toughest mountain finish he set a very strong pace at the front of the bunch, slowly whittling it down for his team leader. But when the attacks came, Brambilla didn’t have anything left to follow and ultimately Eg finished almost a minute ahead of him. Who knows what could have been if he was allowed to go for his own result. Tomorrow’s finish ascent looks great for the slight climber, can he announce himself on the big stage?

Jan Polanc.

With UAE determined to get a stage win at some point, I would be very surprised not to see a few of them in the breakaway tomorrow. Polanc seems to save the best of himself for the Giro but he’s not had the chance to shine brightly on any stages so far. Both of his World Tour wins have come at this race and they’ve both been mountain top finishes. With only one climb to deal with tomorrow he should do well as he seems to get worn down when there are multiple climbs littered throughout the route – he’ll certainly be hoping for better legs than when he was on the attack on Stage 8. Will UAE be rewarded for their aggression the past few days?

Prediction

The break to finally stick and we’ll see the strongest climber take the win, step up Sebastien Reichenbach.

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Although we’ll no doubt see some GC team set it up for their rider only for them to finish in 9th and Yates take another stage…

Betting

0.7pt WIN Reichenbach @ 125/1

0.5pt WIN Polanc @ 80/1

0.5pt WIN Hirt @ 100/1

0.3pt WIN Eg @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were my Two Spokes Worth.