Rio Olympics 2016 – Men’s Road Race

*Apologies again, as I’m holiday this will be “shorter” than normal, with more focus on candidates and potential winning outcomes*

The Route

A long day in the office, featuring a tough climb that they go over 3 times. It’s not the hardest climb in the world but it’s place in the race makes it more difficult.

Again, there will be others who go over the route in more depth. If you want an interactive profile check out this one here.

How will the race pan out?

This race could well end up being a tactical mess and in some ways is a very tough race to call.

Due to the way that the numbers of riders are allocated, teams come here with varying squad sizes. The “big” nations of Belgium, Colombia, Great Britain, Italy & Spain all come here with 5 riders. The numbers then decrease depending on the nations UCI coefficient.

Having only 5 riders makes the race very tough to control, especially considering some teams have 2 leaders. Getting a rider into the break will mean that the rest of the team doesn’t work, but is it worth burning riders out early on?

Conversely, saving riders until the final 100km could well see your chance go if none of the opposition teams want to work with you.

It really comes down to the big teams to control the early moves;

Belgium have De Plus and possibly Pauwels as domestique.
Colombia don’t really have any domestiques as such. Maybe they’ll send Lopez into the break.
GB have Stannard and possibly Cummings.
Italy have Caruso an De Marchi for early on. With Rosa probably working later on.
Spain have Erviti and Castroviejo for early in the day, with Izagirre being the go-to rider late on.

The Italians and Spaniards like usual have teams perfectly set up for these types of races that mimic the World Championships. Out of all the teams, they’ll probably be the key to controlling the break and setting up the “expected” GC-style blow-out on the final climbs.

The rest of the teams will probably hedge their chances by trying to send a rider into the early break, leaving their strongest climbers with the peloton, i.e. Portugal might choose to have Nelson Oliveira up the road with Costa left behind.

It’s also important to consider the length of the course, so look to long stages in the Grand Tours/Classics/World Champs for riders who can last the distance.

The Potential winners

Like the San Sebastian preview, I’m going to go through in team order.

Belgium have two potential winners in their squad. GVA has shown at the Tour that he is climbing very well, he should be able to cope with the climbs if the pace isn’t too high. The flat run in is great for him, as it could bring the race back together.

Philippe Gilbert will be hopeful here, but I can’t see him recording a win here. I think GVA is better in every possible outcome where Gilbert could potentially win. Instead, Tim Wellens will add another dimension to the Belgian squad. He will be used as the long-range attacker and could well manage to steal the day. Furthermore, if he makes it over the final climb in the front group, he could attack then to draw out the other nations.

Screen Shot 2016-08-04 at 13.56.50 — TW interview with the Lotto Soudal team.

Reading between the lines, Wellens seems to think that the route is manageable for riders like him, possibly the Ardennes types. Again though, I can imagine this is dependant on the pace and attitude of the peloton!

Colombia’s whole squad could potentially win this in the right situation. They have to be very aggressive and force some kind of selection and I can see them being very attacking throughout the day. It will be an all or nothing approach for them. I would love to see Esteban Chaves go well here (I have a soft-spot for the Smiling Assassin). He’s been away in Colombia preparing for the Vuelta so is a bit of an unknown quantity, but like others, I think he’ll be going well.

Team GB come here with the Tour winner, Froome in their ranks. The Brit has never been great in one-day classics. In fact, he’s notoriously a DNF merchant. However, if there was ever a race and a year that he could complete and go well in, it would be this one. If he’s on the same form that he was at the Tour, he could ride away from everyone on the climb and TT his way to the finish.

Thomas is probably the next best option for the squad, as Yates seems to be tired after his efforts at the Tour.

Italy will turn to Nibali and Aru. I’m not sure I can see Nibali winning this. He won’t rider away from everyone on the climb and his sprint isn’t the best from a group. I think Aru actually has more of a chance in theory, mainly because he won’t be considered as much of a threat compared to Nibali. The question is if he’s recovered from his implosion at the end of the Tour? Rosa will be the rider to mark attacks and potentially profit from it himself.

Spain come with their ever-present conundrum over the past few years; Valverde or Rodriguez? There is a lot of bad blood between those two and that could be the cause of their demise. Izagirre will be the key for them (Valverde). With 4 Movistar riders in the squad, I think it’s clear who they’ll be backing, with Rodriguez maybe having to fly solo. I can’t really back either of them with great confidence.

Away from the big teams there are several other GC riders who can compete; Poels & Mollema (NED), Bardet (FRA), Costa (POR), Martin (IRE). Any of these riders on their day could win here. I’d fancy Poels and Bardet over the rest of them, I really rate both of their chances and a podium is a very achievable target!

Some of the riders from smaller nations could play a big part in the outcome here. Looking at those who can last the distance (WCs from previous years), there are three riders who I like as big, big outsiders.

First up is Andrey Amador.

The Costa Rican had a great Giro, wearing the Maglia Rosa. He should be able to cope with the climbs (especially if it’s not as tough as expected), but as the only representative from his nation, he’ll more than likely have to attack to win. At the Giro he put a show on with his great descending skills, they could be invaluable here!

TanelKangert could well pull off a wonderful victory here.

The Estonian had a very solid Tour in support of Aru, after being a key domestique for Nibali at the Giro. This will more than likely be his last big race for a while before a period of rest, so he’ll be giving it his all. He has the speed to win from a small group, but won’t be afraid to attack and catch the favourites off guard. The distance won’t be a problem to him.

The final rider is one that I have already mentioned; Nelson Oliveira.

He’ll be used as a ploy from Costa to draw others to chase, but the move might just stick. A rider who can cope with the distance, he can use his TTing ability to distance the field on the descent and final run in. If he has a gap of 20 seconds going into the flat section the race is over!

Prediction

A race with several potential outcomes, I hope it lives up to its potential! As for who can win it? We may well see a surprise winner, but I really like the chances of Romain Bardet. He’s just came off his best ever Tour finish and will be brimming with confidence. He can manage the distance well and will hope to attack on the final climb and grow the gap on the descent, and hope for a lack of cohesion behind. If not, he’ll try a late-attack (he’s a fearless rider) or will rely on a solid sprint.

Betting

I have a few small ante-post bets from a while back (Chaves, Aru, Bardet and Poels).

However, I’m going to re-back Bardet more heavily. I really liked what I saw at the Tour. Along with my 3 long, long shots!

Bardet 0.7pt EW at 33/1 with Coral or Betfred (I’d take down to 25/1, 22 at the lowest).

Amador 0.1pt EW at 200/1 (widely available)

Kangert 0.1pt EW at 250/1 with Ladbrokes (paying 4 places), I’d take the 200/1 with Coral.

Oliveira 0.1pt EW 300/1 with Bet365 or SkyBet

Hope you all enjoyed this “shorter” but long preview! Who do you think will win? Any feedback is appreciated as normal! I should hopefully have a women’s RR preview out tomorrow, if I can find the time to do it. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF Stage 20: Megève -> Morzine

Today’s Recap

Hopefully Nieve was let off the leash, got into the break, and won the stage.

Again, I’m writing this preview in advance as I’m away from home all day today so it might be a bit shorter/less succinct. Apologies!

*Edit, looks like it was a GC day instead*

The Route

Another short and sharp test for the riders! With Paris metaphorically very much in sight, this will be the last chance for many to try to take a stage win.

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After today’s gruelling start to the stage, the riders will be happy to see a bit of flat at the start of the map. However, this won’t make the racing any less frantic as a break tries to escape. It could even be after the sprint point that it manages to properly form! Before we get to the sprint point though, we have the Col des Aravis. A Cat-2 climb that drags on for 6.7km, averaging a 7% gradient. This won’t be fun for the guys at the bottom of the GC, after they suffered today.

The sprint point comes at the foot-slopes of the next categorised climb, the Col de la Colombière. This is a much longer climb than the previous one (11.7km), but it’s gradient is a lot less severe, averaging only 5.8%.

The second half of the stage is characterised by long valley roads, tough climbs and descents.

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Next up is the penultimate climb of the day, the Col de la Ramaz. 13.9km at 7.1%, it will probably see the break split up here, maybe with 5 or so cresting the climb together. Behind, it shouldn’t really cause any GC difficulties unless of course someone is on a terrible day.

Once again, there is a long descent and a valley road before we reach the final climb of the day; the Col de Joux Plane.

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The toughest climb of the day has been saved for last, it barely goes under 7% for the whole climb, with several 9%+ sections. This in theory should blow the race to pieces, whether that’s in the break or in the GC group. Riders will give it their all on the last major climb of the Tour. Once over the summit they have to cut across the mountain, descending slightly, before climbing another 70m again, up to the peak of the Col du Ranfolly. From there it will be a steep and exciting descent all the way into the finishing town of Morzine.

The riders descend all the way into the final km.

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How will the stage pan out?

Breakaway win, most likely.

If there have been GC fireworks today and the fight for the podium is incredibly close then there is a chance this goes to the main contenders. However, none of the teams have looked strong enough to control a stage like this all day, apart from potentially Astana. Movistar and BMC have been relatively poor this Tour.

Break candidates

Look to all your regulars, such as Majka, Pantano, Zakarin etc.

Again though, I’m going to name three riders who I think can go well here.

Vincenzo Nibali.

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The Shark had a sloppy start to the race, underperforming when in breakaways but seems to have turned a corner. He did a great deal of work, a truly monster turn for Aru on stage 17. This to me shows that his form is getting better. As I’m writing this one day early, I’m going to assume that today he’s worked for Aru and then rolled in to the finish, resting up his legs for tomorrow. He’s a favourite for the Olympic RR so will need a good test of his form, tomorrow looks exactly like that type of stage. If he makes the break, he wins.

~~Alexis Vuillermoz.~~

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Another rider going to the Olympics to do the RR, he may have ambitions of going well there. After all, he did win the test event last season! A rider who’s really flown under the radar so far this Tour, he’s done a great deal of work for Bardet. He always seems to be the last man left for his team-mate, I’ve been impressed! Vuillermoz took a solid 3rd on stage 15 but says his form is getting better. As a classics specialist, he loves the steeper gradients and should relish some of the tougher climbs.

Vuillermoz in break today, doubt he’ll go again tomorrow.

Damiano Caruso.

Cycling: BMC Racing Team 2016

A more left-field pick, he’s had a very solid Tour so far, working well for Porte and TVG. So might be given his freedom by the team here to go and have some fun. Having hung on well to the GC favourites group on several occasions, he seems to be climbing well. Furthermore, he packs a good sprint on him so could beat quite a lot of riders if it comes down to a sprint in Morzine with a break companion.

If none of my picks from yesterday’s blog made it into today’s move, they could well give it a go tomorrow. In particular a certain Brit might be targeting this one.

Tirreno Adriatico cycling race

Prediction

If we get a break, Nibali wins.

If it’s GC guys, Aru descends like a mad man and steals victory.

Either way, Astana win this penultimate stage!

vinok

Betting

I’ll be backing the 3 riders above, with Nibali receiving most of my money (unless of course he went in the break today), ~~then Vuillermoz,~~ then Caruso. A similar staking structure to previous previews but maybe a bit more on Nibbles than normal. Obviously, I don’t know prices etc, so just have a hunt around yourself. This planning and writing ahead thing is tough!

*Late Friday edit. Nibali shortly priced, gets majority of backing. Caruso gets smaller weighing. 80/20 split.

Again, apologies for the slightly shorter preview. Hopefully we get an exciting end to the Tour’s time in the Alps! As usual, any feedback is great and thanks for reading! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

TDF Stage 19 Preview: Albertville -> Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc

Today’s Recap

Should have just stuck to that Twitter preview then!

Froome rode the classic negative split tactic, clawing back time on his rivals, and smashing them by the end. A comfortable 21 second win over Dumoulin once the dust settled. That’s the Tour well and truly over, but I think we all know that its been over for a while.

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Aru, Porte and Bardet all recorded very good times, coming home within a minute of the Brit. They all look to be going in the right direction heading into the next two stages.

Poels and Kelderman went for club runs today, but were not as slow as TVG who seemed to crawl round the course.

Onto tomorrow’s mountain top finish.

The Route

A short sharp, tough day out in the saddle.

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Another stage where a fast start is inevitable. The Collet de Tamié isn’t even categorised but it’s a tough climb; 8.1km at 7%. I’d give it a Cat-2 ranking, Cat-3 at worst.

The sprint point comes not long after the climb, and although Sagan has the Green Jersey competition wrapped up, I would not be surprised to see him try to join the break. Just for fun!

The next 50km are dominated by periods of flat broken up by one mountain, the Col de la Forclaz, but by two seperate passages of it. The first comes in at 9.8km with an average gradient 6.9%, with the latter being a shorter sharper incline (5.6km at 7.8%). After the second passage, the riders are soon onto the toughest test of the day.

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It starts off tough and gets tougher, with the second half averaging over 9%. We might see some GC fireworks here, but with the way Sky have been riding then I can’t see it.

The route then tackles a long descent, broken up by a false flat drag, before the start the final ascent of the day.

A testy climb, it’s toughest section comes right at the start. Riders could be distanced here if the pace has been high on the previous climbs. We then get a section of “calm” with gradients of around 4% before it kicks back up in irregular sections all the way to the line. This will definitely cause some damage in the GC group, but will they be fighting for the stage? That is the question.

There is a risk of rain at some point throughout the stage, but who really trusts weathermen these days?!

How will the stage pan out?

Froome’s dominance today means that the GC battle for first place is well and truly over. The battle for the podium is getting even more exciting though! Will those who looked strong (other than Froome) today keep it together for a GC showdown on the final mountain. That would require BMC/Astana/AG2R to keep it together. The first two could manage it but the way Froome is riding, they could end up losing the stage to him. A lot of effort and risk for a chance of it all going up in the air. I don’t think they’ll do that. Froome himself already has two stage wins so he won’t be as concerned with getting a third. Therefore Sky won’t chase hard, they’ll just ride tempo. Sky will let a break get away as early as they can so that Rowe and Stannard can control the race.

So as we’ve seen often in this Tour, I think it will be a break that makes it to the finish line.

break1

With the incredibly hard start to the stage it will only be the strong riders who get away. The stage does have the potential for some of the GC teams to try to get a rider who is in contention for a top 5/10 away in it, however, with Sky’s strength it’s almost a pointless move. I don’t think they’ll bother that early on. Instead, they’ll look to get teammates in the break and maybe try something on the last two climbs of the day. Look for a couple of representatives from a few of the big teams. However, the break might have a large advantage by that point, I think it will, so those riders in turn will hunt for stages.

Candidates

Like my other previews, I’ll highlight 3 riders that I don’t think many others will mention that could give it a go if circumstances are right.

Mikel Nieve.

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I’ve said this countless times before, I hope Sky send someone in the break tomorrow. It would endear them to the general cycling public that they’re all not “robotic” etc., plus getting someone in the break and to go for the stage win shows that they want to reward their domestiques by giving them their own opportunities. Froome has the race sewn up, he only needs a few strong guys with him. Poels is strongest so will stay with Froome, while Thomas and Henao are maybe just too close on GC. They’ll need Rowe, Stannard and Kiry to control the early stage. Landa hasn’t looked great. Process of elimination leaves the Spaniard. He’s shown at the Giro earlier this year that he goes very well in the final week and can pull off some great performances. If he does get in the move then he’ll be a serious threat as well because he’s evidently on great form being the 2nd last man for Froome over the past few stages.

Steve Cummings.

Tirreno Adriatico cycling race

The Brit has had a very solid Tour so far, taking a memorable stage earlier on in the race. Since then he’s been fairly quiet, doing a lot of work for Cavendish and EBH. He did a monster turn on the front the day the stage finished into Berne. The form is clearly still there. If he’s targeted this stage then we could be in for a treat! The steep gradients might not suit him down to the ground but he’ll definitely give 100%.

Simon Geschke.

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A bit of a left-field pick this one, but he did win an excellent mountain stage last year at the Tour. This stage could be too much for him, especially as he’s not done anything all year really. However, if he manages to get into the break and it splits up, then he could cause a surprise! He will enjoy some of the steep gradients, that’s for sure.

For other candidates look towards the likes of Nibali, Rosa, Zakarin, Majka, Kelderman, Barguil, Rolland et al.

Prediction

More out of hope than anything else, Sky put someone in the break tomorrow, and that man goes on to win the stage. A memorable win for Nieve, who will build on Sky’s already remarkable Tour!

Behind, we’ll see a GC battle. Froome and Poels will mark any attacks, but we might see a reshuffling of the top 10. Bardet/Porte/Aru all seem on an upwards trajectory.

Betting

All these prices are quite early on, hunt around later for better prices.

Nieve 0.45pt EW @ 150/1 with PP/Betfair (I’d take 100/1)

Cummings 0.2pt EW @100/1 with Betfair

Geschke 0.1pt EW @300/1 with various bookmakers.

Hope you enjoyed the preview! How do you think the stage will pan out? Is it a case of another race on two fronts, or will the GC guys take stage glory? As usual any feedback is greatly appreciated, thanks for all your kind words so far, it means a lot. 🙂 Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France – GC Preview

I find it quite hard to believe that cycling’s flagship event has snuck up like it has, but here we are at the end of June with the Tour starting this coming weekend. It’s been a fast year!

Like with the Giro, I intend on doing daily previews for each stage along with a Green Jersey preview so I won’t be going into details about the stages here, with this preview focussing solely on the GC candidates.

Who’ll wear the Maillot Jaune on the Champs-Élysses?

⭐️⭐️⭐️

Chris Froome.

Where best to start than with the reigning champion? He’s taken a different approach with slightly less race days this year, looking fairly average in the first part of the season. However, he won the Dauphiné and looked back to his strong best only a few weeks ago. The past two times he’s won that race, he’s went on to win the Tour, will history repeat itself? He most definitely has to start as one of the favourites, if not the favourite and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Froome standing on the top step of the podium again. So who’s going to be able to challenge him?

Nairo Quintana.

Froome’s most likely challenger, the Colombian has impressed me every time he’s raced this season. The reason he came second in the Tour last year to Froome was due to the time he lost in the first week. A couple of the opening stages might be plagued by crosswinds this year, but Quintana was unlucky to lose out in 2015. I don’t expect him to make the same mistake this year. In the final week of the Tour I don’t think Froome will be able to stay with him, it’s just a matter whether he’s chasing time or defending.

⭐️⭐️🌛 (No half star so a moon will do!)

Alberto Contador.

Years gone by El Pistolero would be up there with Quintana and Froome, but I think they just have a bit more in the bag than him. Saying that, he’s not a rider that they’ll want to give much leeway to. He’s a fighter with a never say die attitude and will keep going until the end. I’m looking forward to one of his trademark long-range attacks on a mountain stage. He’s had a very good season so far but was off the boil a bit at the Dauphiné, but then again, he never goes well there!

⭐️⭐️

Thibaut Pinot.

The Frenchman has had his best season so far and it really has been a coming of age year. I expect the Tour to be the same for him. On his day he can climb with the best in the world and his TT abilities have progressed greatly this year! He is a definite podium contender if the others slip up.

Fabio Aru.

Not the best of seasons for the Italian who has failed to impress so far this year, with his best GC result being 6th at Valencia way back in February. However, he should not be discounted and has been gearing up for this race all season, with it being his primary objective. It’s his first Tour appearance and he supposedly comes in as sole-leader of the team (I’m not so sure about that). If he’s back to his best, a top 5 is achievable, possibly a podium. Maybe he’s learnt something from the Nibali school of peaking for the main event? Speaking of which…

Vincenzo Nibali.

Former winner of this race and reigning Giro champion, the Shark is here to “support” Aru but is more than capable of doing his own GC race if his team-mate falters. He’s not raced since his Giro win, instead he’s been away training and recovering for this race. Meaning he should come into this race fresh. The only concern is his lack of race-legs, but he should find them in the first week! Can he pull off a famous and almost unexpected Giro-Tour double? Probably not, but I’ve been wrong before!

Richie Porte.

The Aussie pushed Froome all the way at the Dauphiné and really should have finished on the podium there. He looks as skinny as ever and is climbing very impressively. The only concern with him is that he has never managed a Grand Tour without having one bad day or bad luck. I’m not sure if I can see that changing here.

⭐️

Below these guys we have a whole host of riders who could challenge but it would take varying and unlikely circumstances for them to do so.

Romain Bardet – 2nd on GC at the Dauphine but lacks a TT. Not convinced he’ll go without a bad day as well.

Tejay van Garderen – Going to Tour de Suisse highlights that he’s 2nd choice for BMC. Showed some solid form in Switzerland but I can’t see him finishing on the podium.

Any of Sky’s plan B/C/D – In theory, Thomas/Landa/Henao could all deliver a GC result but they’re all in for Froome and will only get to shine if Froome retires. By then 2 out of 3 of them will have lost time/saved energy so won’t be able to contend anyway.

Apart from those guys I can’t really see anyone else get close. No doubt Carlton Kirby will get excited about Alaphilippe and the Irish fans will be talking up Martin’s chances but the Tour really is a two-horse race. With the rest of the guys fighting for 3rd.

Prediction

I think this year Nairo Quintana wins. As I’ve mentioned above, the only reason he lost the Tour in 2015 to Froome was due to his time loss in the first week. He was much better in the second half of the race. I expect the same this year but without the time loss in Week 1. No one can match him on the mountains and he has a very strong support team here with him. Not as strong as Team Sky, but they’ll definitely be able to support him deep into the climbs. Another factor that makes me lean towards Quintana is his TTing ability. This used to be one of his poorest qualities as a rider but he’s really improved over the last year or so. Consequently, this negates one of the advantages Froome had over him and in fact, I think the Colombian is the better against the clock now. It all seems fairly elementary to me and I’ll be shouting “QUINTANA! QUINTANA! QUINTANA!” at my TV screen come mid July.

For what it’s worth I think it goes;

Quintana
Froome
Pinot

Betting

As I said in my Giro preview, I don’t bet on GC until after the first week. Too many things can go wrong and it’s not worth the risk!

Hope you all enjoyed my take on the GC guys, I should have a preview of the Green jersey competition out soon. Any feedback is greatly appreciated as usual! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Giro Stage 20: Guillestre – Saint’Anna di Vinadio

*I apologise in advance if this preview seems more rushed than normal. I’m very hungover and also have to pack as I’m moving out of my flat tomorrow*

Today’s Recap

My oh my, what an exciting stage!

A real shame for Kruijswijk who loses the Maglia Rosa lead after falling on the descent over the Colle Dell’Agnello. Apparently he’s a bit bashed up, sore ribs etc but will carry on tomorrow. If he’s as sore as he says then he’ll be looking behind, protecting his podium spot, rather than ahead of him.

Unfortunately, Zakarin had to abandon after a bad crash on the same descent. It’s a suspected broken collarbone, nothing too serious. It says a lot for the strength of these guys that a broken collarbone is regarded as a minor injury.

Back at the business end of the race, Nibali dropped Chaves on the final climb and rode away to a superb solo win, destroying the field and setting up a very exciting final day tomorrow. A lot of people will argue that it was bad etiquette that Nibali pushed on after Kruijswijk’s fall. However, in my opinion he was perfectly fine to do so. It was Kruijswijk’s own fault that he crashed, it wasn’t a mechanical or someone else bringing him down. That’s just the unfortunate side of bike racing.

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Chaves a.k.a the Smiling Assassin (very apt after today, going in for the kill after Kruijswijk’s misfortunes) moves into the leaders jersey ahead of Nibali. Leaving the GC looking like this going into the final proper day.

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The Route

All guns blazing from the start, and a very tough day to finish the GC battle with. At only 134km long, it’s going to be fast and furious. Some riders will be very concerned about time limits.

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The climbing action starts straight away with the Col de Vars. 18.2km long at an average gradient of 6%, max gradients of 13%. I hope the riders have eaten their Weetabix in the morning!

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Next on the menu is the famous Col de la Bonette. At 22.2km long with an average gradient of 6.7% (max 10%) it’s a proper Alpine climb and energy sapper. One that Vincenzo Nibali will love.

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The final Cat-1 climb of the day comes with just under 30km, the Colle Della Lombarda. Another brute of a climb at 19.8km in length and an average gradient of 7.6% (max of 12%), we’re bound to see splits here, especially if there has been no action on the previous climbs.

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Once over the summit, the riders face a fast descent, before a final kicker up to the line.

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It may well be that the winner of this stage wins the Giro.

Who are the stage contenders?

The last mountain stage of a Grand Tour often lends itself to a breakaway win, but there is no chance that is happening tomorrow. With the profile climbing from Km 0, all hell is going to break loose, with Astana trying their best to put Chaves into difficulty.

I can’t see who would be given freedom. Those 10 bonus seconds on the line could be the difference between the top 2 on the podium.

Chaves has looked so strong going uphill this race, but faltered a little today. He was made to do a lot of the work by Nibali and others throughout the race. Maybe that took it out of him at the end? He won’t go down without a fight tomorrow.

Whereas Nibali has remarkably came back from the doldrums and now looks the strongest in the race. Is he strong enough to put the required time into the Colombian?

As for the others, I don’t think Kruijswijk will recover for tomorrow unfortunately, and Valverde and Majka can’t match the top 2.

If we somehow do get a break, look to those who’ve been active so far. Potentially Ulissi and Nieve again, with the young American Dombrowski being a strong break candidate as well.

Prediction

As I’ve expressed above, I can’t see past a GC winner for this stage. Going off of recent form (i.e. today) I can’t see past Nibali. The Shark will smell blood and take back-to-back stage wins!

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The big question remains, will he take the GC too?! I can’t call it, it’s going to very close!

Betting

Keep your money in your pocket and just enjoy the race!

Again, apologies for the shorter preview. I don’t really have much to say for this stage, and as expressed above, I’m not feeling too jolly/need to pack. I should be back with a more flowery and wordy preview on Saturday night. Although that will be late as Saturday evening will be family time, so I probably won’t have it out until 11pm GMT. Hope you all enjoyed today’s stage, we should be in for more of the same tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Giro stage 14: Alpago – Corvara (Alta Badia)

Today’s Recap

As expected the stage started off at a terrific pace and a massive break eventually got away. The gap stayed pretty so-so after the first two climbs, but Nieve managed to get away on the penultimate climb and held off to the finish. Taking a win that goes some way to salvaging Sky’s Giro. No luck with our picks, although Moser and Busato did make the break at least.

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Behind, we got a bit of GC action but nothing wild. Some probing attacks by Nibali and Chaves were enough to drop Jungels. Amador was also dropped too, but he descended like a stone to catch up with the rest of the GC favourites and he’ll wear the Maglia Rosa tomorrow.

The Route

If the riders struggled today, they’re going to be in a whole world of hurt tomorrow! The first 5-star rated stage of the race, and it has 6 categorised climbs.

The organisers like making the most difficult stages on the weekends, so that a greater audience can watch them live and they’ve certainly done that for tomorrow. An innocuous start to the day, but it’s almost as if the first ascent up to Passo Pordoi is 80km long. The road just keeps on rising!

I’m not going to go into the climbs that much, you can see for yourself below the gradients etc.

S05_Valcava_3D — First Climb – Passo Pordoi. (9.3km long, 6.9% avg, 9% max)

Tough opening to the day, but a manageable average gradient. If anyone is dropped here, and a few guys probably will, then they’ll struggle to make the time limit at the end.

PW_T14_S02_Sella-1 — 2nd climb – Passo Sella (6.6km long, 8% avg, 12% max)

Short but not so sweet. A relatively stinging gradient but manageable for the GC favourites. This is also the Montagna Pantani. It’ll be a special climb for the Italians then.

PW_T14_S03_Gardena-1 — 3rd climb – Passo Gardena. (6.8km, 4.4% avg, 9% max)

Some respite?

PW_T14_S04_Campolongo-1 — 4th climb – Passo Campolongo (6km, 6.8% avg, 13% max)

A molehill compared with what’s to come.

T14_S05_Giau_alt — 5th climb – Passo Giau

9.8km.

9.4% average gradient.

14% max gradient

Oh. My. God.

This would be my reaction…

T14_S06_Valparola — 6th climb – Passo Valparola (11.6km, 6.8% avg, 14% max).

This looks fairly easy after the monster climb that the riders will have just went over. With tired legs, it will be far from that.

Once the riders crest the final categorised climb they have a long, fast descent before a kick up to the finish line. The riders would hope that’d be an easy affair too, but nope, RCS were obviously feeling particularly cruel with this stage. The reason for this is that we have a short wall at 5kms to go to the finish line. It’s only 360m long but it max’s out at 19%!

The wall is aptly named “Muro del Gatto” or the “Wall of the Cat” in English. The riders will need a spring in their step to get up here after a tough day, and we might see a few Oscar’s handed out for the pain faces that they’ll make.

The rest of the run in isn’t too testing, but still climbs gradually up-hill.

T03_Arezzo_ukm

Weather Watch

Sticking with weather.com after their good showing for today’s stage, they forecast that tomorrow will most likely be dry again.

Screen Shot 2016-05-20 at 18.09.25 — Forecast for Arabba

I’ve chose Arabba as the town to get the forecast of because it is fairly central to the route that the riders take. As you can see above, there is a chance of showers later on in the day but it looks like the riders will avoid this. Apart from that, it looks like a cool day in the saddle with a low humidity. The riders should be pleased with this because it will be tough enough anyway!

How will the stage pan out?

The same question has to be asked every day from now until the end of the Giro: break or no break? I managed to successfully predict that today was a breakaway day, although not choose a successful rider. There is a chance that tomorrow will be another break day, with tired teams from today and with maybe some GC riders wanting to conserve energy for the mountain TT on Sunday.

However, I think tomorrow will be a big GC day. Some riders looked strong today and they’ll want to put those who were struggling under even more pressure tomorrow.

Who are the contenders then?

For that, you have to look at who was coping well on the climbs today and putting in attacks or following the moves relatively comfortably.

The strongest out of the GC guys for me were Nibali, Valverde, Majka and Chaves. This was evident after Nibali’s second attack. (Which you can watch here).

Both Nibali and Chaves put in moves to test the water, but were reeled back in/I don’t think they went 100%, maybe 90% though. Majka and Valverde looked relatively comfortable closing the gaps to them.

Kruijsiwk didn’t look as convincing as he had done earlier on in the race, losing the wheels of those in-front. Zakarin also lost contact on the final climb, but made it back on just before the crest, as the pace had slowed at the front. I don’t think anyone else is good enough to win, outside the 6 mentioned, especially the first 4. Yes, Pozzovivo and Uran both managed to hold on longer than Zakarin, but I just can’t see a situation where they win.

Also, Amador will lose the pink tomorrow.

Prediction

I think we see GC fireworks tomorrow and some big time gaps. Annoyingly not as big it was a mountain-top finish, but reasonable enough.

Therefore, it comes down to Nibali, Valverde, Chaves and Majka for the win tomorrow I think.

Nibali put in the most attacks today: was that a show of strength, or were they done because he’s fearful of Valverde and co? I think it was the former.

I’m not a fan of Valverde’s negative riding and he even lost to Nibali in a sprint today, which is not a good sign for him. A great one for the Shark though.

Majka got involved in the finish as well which shows that he has good legs. He’s a danger-man in this Giro, because like I said in the Maglia Rosa preview, he has the ability to keep digging in, in the final week of a Grand Tour. His endurance and powers of recovery are incredible.

Chaves has always been there or thereabouts at the pointy end of this Giro, waiting for a moment to strike. Could that be tomorrow?

Screen Shot 2016-05-20 at 18.39.50

Unfortunately I don’t think so.

I think Nibali’s show of strength today was a sign of things to come, and he’ll pick up his first Giro win of this year, tomorrow.

Astana will revert back to their 2015 Giro tactics and set a crazy mad pace all day, trying to eliminate support riders from the other teams. Nibali seems to have the best domestiques in the shape of Fuglsang and Scarponi. He’ll manage to gap the rest of the group on the final climb and romp away from them on the descent, taking a solo victory.

Chaves and Majka will follow in behind, rounding out the podium.

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Betting

As much as I’ve harked on about not backing GC riders pre-stage in Grand Tours, well, tomorrow is the exception.

I’m willing to back Nibali quite heavily. 1.5pt WIN @ 6/1 (PP)

Chaves 0.25pts EW @ 12/1 (PP)

Majka 0.25pts EW @ 14/1 (PP)

Again, hunt around later when more prices are out. I’m just putting this up now so I can have a relaxed evening!

I see Eurosport are broadcasting the stage in its entirety (pretty much) tomorrow, so we should hopefully get to witness a classic unfold before us.

Congrats if you made it this far through again, enjoy watching the race wherever you are!

Anyway,

These were My Two Spokes Worth.

MyTwoSpokesWorth

Where I give my opinions on the compelling world of professional bicycle racing

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