Tag: Breakaway

TDF Stage 6 Preview: Arpajon-sur-Cère -> Montauban

Today’s Recap

Well, the break made it as I kind of thought would happen. GVA took a fantastic win attacking away from De Gendt on the final Cat 2 climb and was never to be seen again! A great result for him after his Spring campaign was ruined by a crash. He now moves into yellow with a commanding 5 minute lead over the GC favourites.

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How long can he hold on? Well it really depends how aggressively the parcours are covered on this weekend’s stages. He’d hope to at least make it to Stage 8 in the lead.

As for our stage picks, none of them made it into the break and because of the massively increased pace behind, Gallopin was dropped too. Not good. Swiftly moving on!

The Route

Tomorrow we have our last chance for the sprinters for a while, well it should be their stage. There is a chance that a break builds up a large gap on the opening part of the stage.

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There could be a fast start to the day tomorrow if the riders sense that some of the sprinters are tired from today’s efforts. If we get a strong enough break then it could stick. However, this is very, unlikely. This isn’t the Giro, the sprint teams here at the Tour won’t mess up.

The final 30km of the stage are almost pan-flat so the break will probably have to have 4 minutes here to have a chance. There is a slight rise within the final 10km but it should have no real impact on the stage.

The most challenging feature of the finale tomorrow is the run-in itself. It’s very technical!

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There is barely a straight road in sight within the final 5km. The route constantly meanders through the finishing town of Montauban.

The final kilometre itself is tricky, with the passage of a roundabout at approximately 700m to go, heading left. They then swing back round to the right and onto the finishing straight. You’ll need to be within the first 10 riders at this point to have any chance of winning the stage. Therefore, lead out trains will be crucial.

Stage Contenders

Kittel has to start as the favourite for the stage. He had a sloppy start to the race and his lead-out wasn’t working. However, they got their act together on stage 4, managing to deliver Kittel perfectly. His sprint on that stage shows that he’s on very good form, normally he wouldn’t podium on a finish like that. Tomorrow’s stage suits him down to the ground. If he gets through that roundabout safely, no one well beat him…

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Before the Tour I had Greipel‘s Lotto Soudal team as the best lead-out in the race. They have been good so far, but there is room for improvement. Furthermore, the Gorilla hasn’t delivered a stage win yet. He really should have won stage 3. It’s well documented that Greipel doesn’t like a technical finish, however, he put those claims behind him after he won a tricky finish in the Giro earlier this year. Thankfully for him too, the weather looks like it will be kind and there will be no rain.

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I have to now include Cavendish along with these two. Like many before the Tour, I was writing off his chances in the bunch sprints, but boy has he proved me wrong! His team Dimension Data seemed to have found their rhythm in the lead outs and on form probably have one of the best in the race. Cav seems to have regained his top end speed to go with his devastating kick. Can he make it 3 wins here? He has an incredible chance!

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Away from these three main contenders we have:

Sagan who will hope to have regained some of his strength after today’s exertion. He has the technical ability to easily deal with the tricky finale tomorrow. No doubt, he’ll manage to find his way onto the back of the wheels of the best lead-out. Can he come round the sprinter in front of him? I don’t think so.

Kristoff looked much better on stage 4 and slowly seems to be finding his feet again. However, that stage suited him much more than this one. He’ll be hoping to sneak onto the podium but I can’t see it personally.

Coquard isn’t known for his pure flat sprint, but his result on Tuesday will have given him confidence. In Adrien Petit he has a great pilot fish, and I can envisage the pairing attempting the Ferrari/Modolo technique where they get in the mix only in the last 500m.

Groenewegen is growing into his first GT quite nicely. He came from way back on stage 4, another good indication of his form. He’ll hope to top 5 here and possibly sneak onto the podium.

The other usual suspects such as Theuns, Dumoulin & McClay etc will all hope for another top 10 finish.

So does the breakaway have a chance?

Simply put, not really no.

However, if the right composition gets away where several of the sprint teams have representatives in it, then it could stay to the line. The opening half of the race looks ideal to build up a large advantage. There would probably need to be at least a rider from 2 of the following Etixx/LottoS/DD for it to have any chance I think. BMC won’t chase if there is no one that will threaten the GC.

You’ll be able to tell after the opening 20km if it will make it or not. I’m not even going to bother to speculate names who could be involved. It’s hard enough to make an educated guess on a rolling/mountainous day, a sprint day is nigh on impossible!

Prediction

We get a sprint and everything returns to normal. Kittel wins.

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Betting

Kittel 5pts win at 13/8 with Paddy Power.

Thanks for reading! We should be in for a good show of strength from the sprint teams tomorrow, enjoy wherever you’re watching it from. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TDF Stage 5 Preview: Limoges -> Le Lioran

Today’s Recap

Another day, another fest on my words for dinner. Kittel produced an incredibly strong sprint to win the day. Etixx definitely got his lead out right this time! My two favourites for the stage finished 2nd and 3rd. However, the blog “outsiders” were nowhere to be seen. I have to admit and hold my hands up when wrong, I just thought the stage/finish was going to be tougher. Fair play to those who backed Kittel! Onto tomorrow’s stage.

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The Route

The most difficult stage of the Tour so far, there are six categorised climbs out on the course.

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Looking at the left of the profile map, you can see that the riders actually reach a reasonalbe altitude. There is a lot of ups and downs on the stage, with the highest point being the 2nd Category Pas de Peyrol at 1589m.

With the climbs back-loaded towards the end of the stage, this promises to be tough day out in the saddle. The Ardennes riders will be licking their lips at the profile!

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However, the two cat 2 climbs are brutes. The Pas de Peyrol averages just over 11.5% for its final 3kms, with the Col du Perthus also having segments over 11%. The saving grace for the Ardennes riders and Peter Sagan is that the Col du Font de Cère isn’t an overly difficult climb. If they make it there, they will fancy themselves on the sprint up to the line, which has a very similar profile to today’s finishing ramp.

How will the stage be won?

Tomorrow is the first stage that I can feasibly see being won by a breakaway. There are plenty of riders far enough down on GC not to worry Sagan’s lead as long as they aren’t given too much headway. Furthermore, one of the Tinkoff DS reiterated the fact that they were still here to win the GC with Contador, so they don’t want to waste any extra energy in preserving Sagan’s lead.

Etixx could feasibly chase in the hope to set up Alaphilippe in a finish that looks to suit him well. However, if he’s there I’m sure that Sagan and Valverde will be there too and they can definitely challenge/beat him for the stage.

Consequently, I think if the right break gets away then it could make it. (50/50 chance)

Break Candidates

Realistically you need to look to riders who are 3mins+ down on the GC for the break to succeed because I’m not too sure on how keen Sagan will be on losing the jersey. Although saying that, he is a very laid back guy!

Furthermore, they have to be able to climb well to make it over the Cat 2s with the rest of the break.

Some riders who fit this category are Herrada, Albasini, Cummings, Navarro and De Gendt to name a few. Like normal, I’m going to highlight three riders who I think can go well.

First up is my main KOM hope and mountain break specialist Ruben Plaza. It may be too early in the race for him to go on the attack, but after losing over on 12mins on the GC then he could quite well have been targeting this early stage. A great climber from the break, he should be able to cope with the two Cat-2 climbs and then he’d hope to solo away to the finish.

Second is Alexey Lutsenko.

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A strong baroudeur, the Kazakh won a stage at Paris Nice earlier in the year by making a solo attack after the final climb on the day. He may not be the best climber ever, but he’s certainly strong enough to make the break on the flat. If he gets in it, I wouldn’t back against him! Furthermore, he has a decent turn of speed as well.

The final rider is one that has been in the break already this Tour, Jan Barta.

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Bora have been very active so far this Tour and I expect that to continue tomorrow. A strong TTer, Barta can make the break on the flat. Furthermore, he’s a fairly solid climber so could be capable of finishing it off, depending on his breakaway companions!

If it’s not a breakaway?

As I’ve mentioned above, this is a tough stage to call straight up and I think there’s a 50/50 chance of the break making it. If not, look towards those who featured on stage 2. The trio I said earlier: Sagan, Alaphilippe and Valverde all have very good chances of taking the result. However, there is one rider that I like outside those three favourites. That man is Tony Gallopin. He was very disappointed after Stage 2 to only finish 8th. His form is clearly very good after coming 3rd in the French National TT plus finishing 2nd in the road race. I think the TT result is more evident of that because he’s not known for going great in that particular discipline.

The likes of Matthews could make the finish as well and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that we see a late attack sticking if people sit up and look at each other.

Prediction

I’m going to have to cheat here and give two predictions: one for the break and the other for a favourites showdown.

I have fond memories of Plaza winning Stage 20 at the Vuelta last year. I had him at 80/1 that day, he’s the same price for tomorrow. The omens are good. He looked strong in the Giro and he’s the type of rider who can maintain a solid level of form for a while. If he makes it into the break, everyone else will be worried! He’s my breakaway man.

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But at the end of the day, the breakaway is a lottery so my guess is as good as yours! Speaking of which…

For the favourites I think it’s fairly obvious who I’m going to pick. Yes, Sagan/Alaphilippe/Valverde all rightly start as the trio to beat, but I have a feeling that big Tony will go well here. He’s my man if it comes back together for some kind of bunch finish!

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Betting

0.75pts EW Gallopin @20/1 with Various bookmakers

0.25pts EW Plaza @80/1 with PP (paying 5 places)

0.125pts EW Lutsenko @200/1 with SkyBet

0.125pts EW Barta @300/1 with PP (5 places again)

 

Hope you all enjoyed the preview, we should be in for the most exciting stage so far tomorrow in my opinion! Watch this become a borefest now haha. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Tour de France – KOM Preview

Tour de France – KOM Preview

Much like the sprinters and their Green jersey competition, the King of the Mountains classifications offers the climbers who aren’t going for GC a chance to win a jersey.*

*Although, Chris Froome did win it last year.

How does it work?

Like the stages being classified going on the difficulty of them, climbs are categorised in a similar fashion.

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Table showing the points break-down over each summit

The harder the climb, the more points available. Simple!

It’s also important to note that points on a summit finished are doubled. For example, the winner of stage 12 up Mont Ventoux will score 50 points.

What type of rider will win it?

Like I said above, it is traditionally a climber a who goes in breakaways and is no real threat on GC that wins the jersey. For example, Mikel Nieve started to mount a serious charge for the KOM jersey at the Giro after being in the break of the day on stage 13. This kind of highlights the weird nature of the KOM jersey as any real tilt at the title isn’t made until the second half of the race.

In the table below I’ve highlighted the maximum amount of points available out on the road.

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After Froome winning last year, the organisers seem to have reduced the number of summit finishes. Hoping to favour the non-GC guys.

Stages 8 and 9 offer a lot of points out on the road, but for any half-decent climber to make the break on these stages they’ll have had to lose time in the previous days. How will that happen? Well, there might be splits due to echelons in the first few stages, an unfortunate crash, or they might just lose time deliberately to hunt for stages/the KOM later in the race.

Similarly, some of the stages in the final week offer a lot of points out on the road. These will be crucial in shaping the KOM jersey. You probably need to make the break on stage 15 and 19 to be in with a chance.

One of the major deciding factors for where the jersey will end up are those 76 points that can be won in the final 20km of stages. It really depends on how the GC guys ride these stages. For example, stages 7, 8 and 15 all have a Cat-1 climb before a descent to the finish. Will the GC guys try to put their rivals in trouble here, or be happy to let the break go. The honest answer is I don’t know. It’s too far ahead to predict how the race will be poised at that stage. I would think at least two of those stages will go to the break, the same can be said for stage 20. Therefore, I do think this years KOM jersey will be won by a non-GC rider.

But who you say?

Let me just have a look…

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Firstly, I think we can discount any Team Sky rider. They’ll be all in for Froome.

Secondly, you have to be a good climber to win the jersey, but also be relatively attacking and opportunistic. This gets rid of a large chunk of the peloton.

However, from the outset we’re probably left with around 40 riders who could feasibly win the jersey if circumstances went their way. So like stage picks for breakaway days. I’ll narrow it down to three riders (of varying odds) who could give it a crack.

Ruben Plaza. 

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The veteran Spaniard (who now rides for Orica) has become a bit famous for his long-range solo attacks on mountain stages. He won a stage at both the Tour (picture above) and the Vuelta last year. Supporting Chaves at the Giro in May, he rode very strongly when called upon and impressed me. Here at the Tour, Orica don’t really come with any GC aspirations so their climbers will be given free roles. I would not be surprised to see Plaza lose time during the first week to be given freedom later in the race. I’m sure we’ll see him in a few breakaways! If he gets near the lead of the jersey then he’s the type of rider to keep fighting for it.

Arnold Jeannesson.

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He had a very good start to the year with 11th on GC at Paris Nice and 4th on GC at Critérium International, highlighting that he can climb with the best. Since then, he’s been a bit off the boil. Cofidis’ main GC rider will be Navarro so I expect Jeannesson to be given free rein in the mountains to hunt stages or the KOM jersey. It would be great for the Pro Conti team to end up with a jersey at the end of the Tour.

Tanel Kangert.

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A very solid and reliable rider, Kangert seems to have re-found his form this year, finishing 2nd at the Giro del Trentino. He put in a solid bit of team-work for Nibali at the Giro but hasn’t raced since. He’s one of those riders at Astana who could be given a bit of a Carte Blanche in this race. He’ll be tough to beat if he makes the right break.

Prediction

As I’ve said earlier in this preview, this jersey is incredibly tough to make a pre-race prediction for. However, it would be dull if I didn’t stick my neck on the line and make a prediction.

I do lean towards it being a non-GC rider and I’ll go with someone who I guarantee will make the beak on a few occasions this Tour. Ruben Plaza will be the King of the Mountains.

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Betting

One of the more fun markets to have a bet on. I’m going to back the three of my selections here to keep me interested over the three weeks.

Plaza 0.3pt EW @ 50/1 available with various bookmakers, Ladbrokes/PaddyPower etc

Jeannesson 0.1pt EW @ 200/1 with various bookmakers, Paddy Power/Betfair etc.

Kangert 0.1pt EW @ 300/1 with various bookmakers, Bet365/PaddyPower etc.

 

Hope you enjoyed my interpretation of how the KOM jersey will pan out this year. What are your thoughts? I should have a Young Rider (and other) preview out tomorrow. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Dauphiné stage 5: La Ravoire – Vaujany

Today’s Recap

I only caught the final 5km of today’s stage and I’m glad, seemed like a borefest. It was a nailed on sprint as predicted and it was Edvald Boasson Hagen who came out victorious. A great show of strength from the Norwegian who breaks his World Tour drought. Behind, our man Debuscherre got blocked in on the final corner and from there he was never coming back. Theuns it seems wasn’t the chosen man for Trek, finishing back in 76th. Hopefully get some better luck.

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The Route

A tough test awaits the peloton tomorrow and a harder incline than on Stage 2. This time finishing on a Cat 2 rather than a Cat 3.

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It will be a very fast and frenetic start to the stage, with a slight downhill all the way to the first climb of the day. We probably won’t see the break of the day get away until this point. After here it is up and down all day, with a lot of climbing metres.

There is a bit of a lull before we get an uncategorised drag before the summit finish up to Vaujany.

The climb itself is very stop-start.

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The gradient changes constantly so the riders won’t be able to get into a rhythm. This will favour some of the GC favourites, i.e. Contador over Froome.

If there are to be any GC gaps they will more than likely be made on the 4-5km, 12.5% section. Otherwise, we might get a small group sprinting out for victory.

How will the stage pan out?

This is one of those stages that could go to the GC guys or the break.

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If this was a Grand Tour then I’d definitely say break, but because this is only a one week race we might get otherwise. The reason for this is that some of the GC teams might fancy their rider in the sprint/to gap their rivals on the final climb. Bonus seconds could be crucial at the end of the week and there are 10 available on the line.

Team Sky are also notorious for being breakaway killers and Froome has looked fairly strong this week. Do they believe that he can drop Contador and Porte? Hmmm. They might find an ally in the form of Etixx. The finale looks perfect for Dan Martin or even young superstar Alaphilippe. Will they work all day on the front? I think not. They’ve shown a willingness to get in the break the past few days and I expect the same from them tomorrow.

Therefore I lean slightly more towards the break winning it.

Break Candidates

For the break to get away there need to be no serious GC threats in it. Someone like Romain Sicard could potentially get away. He’s only 1’41 down just now, but the rest of the GC teams won’t be concerned about him.

Like other previews, I’m again going to highlight only a couple of riders who could make the split.

First up is the Panzerwagen, a.k.a Tony Martin. The German has looked very strong in the race so far, either pulling on the front or attacking himself. He’s not afraid to go in the break on hilly/mountainous stages. His win on Stage 9 of the 2014 Tour is testament to that. There is a chance he might have to work in the peloton for Martin/Alaphilippe but as we saw on stage 2, Etixx aren’t afraid to send someone up the road on a stage that should suit their riders. If Martin gets away, he’ll be very hard to beat.

The other is Tomasz Marczynski. The Pole who rides for Lotto has made a few breaks earlier this year. He’s a solid climber and is far down on GC not to be a worry. I don’t think Lotto will put all their eggs in Gallopin or De Clerq’s basket, so they’ll likely try to send someone up the road. He’s not got a win yet for Lotto Soudal but has got 6 career wins so far. Can he break the duck here?

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Prediction

A tough stage to call, but I really fancy the Panzerwagen for some reason. I’m 60:40 on if a break makes it or not. It really depends on the composition of teams in it and if anyone is a danger on GC. I think Martin has the qualities to drop his breakaway companions and the brute strength to get up the steep ramps on the final climb. He did attack on the steepest section on stage 3 so has shown that he can go up the tough stuff well.

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If we do get a GC battle then look to his team-mate and fellow Martin, Dan.

Betting

Tomorrow screams in-play to me. Back a couple of possible break candidates and then go GC riders in stage. Their odds won’t change that much so it’s not worth backing them pre-stage in my opinion. I’ll tweet anything that catches my eye.

0.25pt outright on both Martin (Tony) and Marczynski

Martin @ 200/1 with Bet 365

Marczynski @  300/1 with Paddy Power.

Hopefully one of our men gets in the break to give us some excitement in the early parts of the stage. It would be great if one of them held on for the win too! Thanks again for reading, will be back again tomorrow with another stage preview. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Dauphiné Stage 3: Böen-sur-Lignon -Tournon

Today’s Recap

Definitely not one for the sprinters and even EBH struggled up the final climb. A break of 3, who got clear at the crest of the cat 2 almost made it to the line. But it was the charging Jesús Herrada who came out the front of the peloton and stole victory. It was a very impressive display of speed and power!

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Our picks didn’t really do anything at all. Coppel made an attack off the front but was brought back by Tinkoff and was our best finisher in 39th. Dennis came home in a respectable 107th. Lets hope for better tomorrow!

The Route

Another lumpy day on the cards for the peloton, with quite a reasonable amount of climbing metres.

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The Cat-2 is weird. The actual KOM comes with 161km to go but as you can see, the road doesn’t stop climbing there.

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The Cat-2 itself

A short and relatively sharp climb, this will put the sprinters in difficulty. If they’re in trouble here then they’ll be dropped once we get past the “summit”. Bouhanni is going to see if he can survive the climb, it will be very close.

The final kilometre is downhill and it isn’t exactly the easiest run in. If we do get a sprint, it will be a messy one!

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The twists and turns really favour a late attacker, with the old cliché; “out of sight, of mind” inevitably being used by the commentary team tomorrow.

How will the stage pan out?

I think a break makes it tomorrow.

As we saw today, Tinkoff are quite happy to relinquish control of the race leadership and it was only because Etixx started chasing that the break was reeled back in.

The sprinters teams will be concerned that their rider can make it over the final climb and I can’t see them chasing. None of the Ardenne-style guys impressed today so they probably won’t chase. The best things for the teams to do is get guy in the morning break and see how it pans out.

If it all comes back together, I think we still see a solo winner with someone putting in a well-timed late attack…

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Breakaway Candidates

Anyone who isn’t a GC threat. Basically.

As I said above, Tinkoff will quite happily lose control of the race. That really broadens the potential winners of the stage so even those close on GC now have a chance.

Like in the Giro I’m going to pick three riders who I think could give it a go, and look at them more in-depth.

First up is Antoine Duchesne. The young Canadian hasn’t featured in the break yet which is surprising. Considering that he never seemed out of them at Paris Nice earlier in the year. I liked what I saw of him in that race and he seems to ride with a lot of heart. He’s definitely a guy who could handle a day like this. Without a pro win yet, could this be it?

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Next up is a more familiar name: Niki Terpstra. A massive engine who isn’t afraid of getting in a break. He could be sent up the road so that his Etixx team don’t have to do any work behind. Alaphilippe has a good chance on this stage if the proper fast-men get dropped, but I don’t think Etixx will put all their eggs in his basket. Terpstra would be one of the strongest in any break, will he be the best climber though?

Finally, Omar Fraile from Dimension Data is another possibility. An attacking rider who also isn’t shy of breakaways. Like Etixx, EBH might fancy tomorrow, but DD won’t want to commit 100%. Fraile has the climbing ability to make it over the final hill, will he be alone?

Prediction

Break makes it and I’ll go for the talented Spaniard. Fraile won’t be so frail!

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Betting

Tomorrow has in-play wrote all over it. Small stakes on the break picks. 0.15pt EW each

Fraile 200/1 @ Bet365

Terpstra 300/1 @ PP

Duchesne 250/1 @ PP.

 

Hope you enjoyed the preview. Sorry for it being shorter than normal, I’ve got a splitting headache! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

 

Giro Stage 18: Muggiò – Pinerolo

Today’s Recap

Nailed on sprint they said?!

Roger Kluge had a different idea, escaping excellently within the final kilometre to steal the win from the sprinters. He followed after Pozzato attacked just before him. I have to say, the rider from Willier did a great job on the front once Pozzato attacked. He kind of veered across the road and blocked the sprint trains into the final corner. This disorganised them and Modolo and Nizzolo were left without any team-mates. Katusha attempted to bring it back but it was too late. Kluge had caught and dropped Pozzato. He even had enough time to free-wheel and celebrate at the end!

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A day before leaving from Muggiò the two main Italian sprinters get mugged off. Not as poetic as The Snail winning a day after National Escargot Day but it will do!

I have to say, I was surprised at the size of the breakaway, I thought that it would have been larger. Was disappointed Lampre weren’t gutsy and tried to get someone in it, but from very early on it was clear that both they and Trek were happy to duke it out for the sprint/stage win.

Lampre leave the stage empty-handed in that sense, but also in the Maglia Rossa competition as Nizzolo won (behind the break) both the Int Sprints and then finished 2nd on the stage, increasing his points lead even more ahead of Ulissi. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nizzolo try to go in the break tomorrow to secure some more points.

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Maglia Rossa classification after today’s stage

The Route

The longest stage of the race in the final week of a Grand Tour, before the two tough mountain stages. The Giro organisers are cruel!

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A very flat opening to the stage. This is one to tune into for the last 50km.

Although the fight to get in the break will be incredible and no doubt we’ll see a very fast opening to the race.

The race really kicks off with the climb up Pramartino (4.7km long, 10.6% average gradient, a crazy 17% max). This will decimate whoever is up front from the break away and I can imagine we’ll only see a group of 3 at most left cresting this climb together. Behind we could well possibly see some GC fireworks but with two big days ahead, and with Kruijswijk looking so strong, I don’t think so.

So after this it appears like a nice easy run in to the finish, or so I thought! The profile is once again deceptive (classically Italian) and in the final 3km there is a big old wall.

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Final 3km run in
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Aforementioned big old wall.

At 500m in length and averaging 13.2% in gradient, with a section topping out at 20%, this will decimate what’s left of the break. And it will be every man for themselves and only the strongest will crest it at the front. Once over, they’ll have a steep descent before a section of flat and the run in to the line.

Weather Watch

Looks set to be another nice day out on the bike for the riders, with very little chance of rain.

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Forecast for Pinerolo

How will the stage pan out?

Break. 100%.

If Valverde hadn’t won the stage the other day, then this possibly could have been held together for a GC battle royale, but they’ll instead keep their powder dry for Friday and Saturday.

As I said above, the fight to get in the break won’t be easy because a lot of the teams will want to be represented. Furthermore, we’ll inevitably see a good mix of riders make the break due to the terrain we start in. The strong rouleurs are more likely to make the break because of the flat start, in comparison to the punchier climbers who could actually win the stage.

Break Contenders

Much like in earlier previews, look to those who are attacking and far down on GC. There are lots of them! Again, like other previews I’m just going to select a few riders who could give it a go and look at them in-depth. This time, I’m going to go for 4 riders!

First up is;

Michele Scarponi. In what is potentially his last season in the professional peloton (he’s out of contract at the end of the year), he might well be let off the reigns here. Arguably one of the riders of the race so far, he’s been incredibly strong in support of Nibali. However, his leader has faltered and Astana may look to the Italian veteran to get them something out of the race. He’s far enough down on GC and is definitely climbing well enough to get rid of his breakaway companions on the climbs. He’ll be a serious threat if he makes the break. If not him, Astana might turn to Kangert.

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Francesco Bongiorno could be another breakaway contender. He finished 3rd on a stage at the Giro back in 2014, up the famous Monte Zoncalon (Stage 20). Last year he managed to finish 2nd on Stage 18, will he continue his progression this year and finish on the top step? He hasn’t really done anything of note this Giro, or season in fact. But he is always one who will give it a go on the tough climbs.

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Bongiorno’s hair resembling the nature of the final climb

Alexander Foliforov. Already a stage winner here, the young and talented Russian promised  that we’ll see more from him this race. Could tomorrow be that day? A stage like this very much resembles a cronoescalata, with only two short climbs to negotiate. It looks like an ideal stage for him to motor away on the steep ramps of the two climbs, just like he did in the time trial. If he has the same form as he did that day, no one will see him again until the finish line!

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Will we see this man on the podium again?

The final rider is another who’s also already won a stage this Giro: Giulio Ciccone. Another Bardiani rider, they’re sure to have numbers in the break. Ciccone as was proven on Stage 10 is an incredibly talented climber and not a bad descender. Two key attributes if you want to win this stage. If he’s recovering well from the build of fatigue, then he will be a real danger-man if he gets in the break.

All of these riders of course will require some luck to get into the break of the day, as per usual. It’ll be interesting to see the mix of riders we get up the road. I expect Ulissi probably to give it a go, as this stage looks very good for him and Nizzolo will try to follow him to take the sprint points at the TVs.

Prediction

I’m sure we get a break win tomorrow, with Ulissi being the obvious candidate. However, as you may have gathered by now, I don’t like going for the clear favourite so instead I’m going to go with the old Italian veteran, Scarponi. I hope Astana (and the peloton) let him go up the road and with Frankie cheering him on from him, he’ll steal the win!

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Maybe he’ll be nicknamed “Il pirata” afterwards, all he’ll need is an eyepatch!

Betting

Another day for smallish stakes. 0.25pt WIN on those I’ve mentioned.

*At the time of writing, only PaddyPower have prices up so the blog will be based off of them. Like usual, shop around later and you might get a better price!*

Scarponi @66/1

Foliforov @66/1

Bongiorno @90/1

Ciccone @90/1

 

Hope you enjoyed this preview, hopefully one of the guys above makes it into the break. Otherwise, it will be a very dull stage. Make sure you tune in for those final 50km, they’re at least going to be exciting. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

 

 

 

 

 

Giro Stage 17: Molveno – Cassano d’Adda

Today’s Route

Well, the idea of a breakaway succeeding was quickly thrown out the window and we got some more GC fireworks on today’s stage. It looked for a while that Chaves was going to be the major loser, with the race splitting massively on the first climb and the young Colombian being left in the second group on the road. However, it ended up being Nibali who was the main loser as those in the front group rode away from him, and Chaves who came up from behind, dropped him too. Up ahead, Valverde took a good win, meaning he now has stage victories in all of the Grand Tours. Kruijswijk was second and Zakarin 3rd.

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Annoyingly all three of the riders I mentioned in the preview were up the road at some point. Boswell was apparently in a big move at the start of the day that was brought back by Nippo. (Here’s a link to an interview with him post stage.)

Kudus escaped briefly along with Pirazzi and one other rider I can’t remember just at the bottom of the first climb of the day. They were quickly brought to heel as well.

And of course Dombrowski had made it into the elite group of 10 who had escaped up the road. Then he lost contact with the group on the flat. Some people are speculating that it was team orders, but it looked to me as if he’d taken a big turn at the front swung over and nobody came through. At this point there was a slight gap between the first five in the group and the second five. After Dombrowski had swung off to the side of the road I think he was caught napping and the remaining four powered away to catch up with those in-front. However, that’s all speculation/my opinion, so I guess we’ll have to wait for a press release from Cannondale to see exactly what happened.

Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage!

The Route

Bit lumpy then very flat!

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Nothing much to discuss here, with only one cat-4 climb on the route and that shouldn’t cause the peloton any difficulty. Cunego will be looking forward to a day where he can have a rest and not try to get in the breakaway.

The actual finish isn’t that difficult either. The organisers have been kind to the peloton/sprinters here.

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So a nailed-on sprint then?

Well you’d assume so. Both Modolo and Nizzolo haven’t won a stage yet and will be keen to get one in the bag before the final stage in Turin. Their main rivals have all went away, leaving them as easily the fastest sprinters here. There are some other teams with second-rate sprint options but they don’t compare to the two Italians.

A two-horse race then.

Well…

Team Tactics

If there were more top-tier sprinters here then it’s a sprint day guaranteed. However, with there only being the two, other teams aren’t going to work to help bring the break back. In fact, the best move for them is to get a rider in the break, so that they can save themselves for the finale.

Lampre only have 8 riders, but they won’t use up Ulissi or Ferrari for the chase. Minus Modolo, they only have 5 left and they’re not exactly the strongest rouleurs in the World, they’re much more suited to hilly routes. Plus, we’ve seen Lampre cock-up a situation like this before (Final stage at the Giro last year).

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Trek only have 6 riders, but again they won’t use up Alafaci (who I assume will be doing lead-out duties with BVP gone). Leaving them 4 riders to commit to a chase. They have stronger riders on the flat but will be shouldered with more of the work due to Lampre’s incompetences and the fact Nizzolo is the faster of the two.

Other teams are supposedly targeting the sprints, Dimension Data and Giant Alpecin namely. But as I said above, I don’t see them contributing to a chase when they’re really fighting for third place. Unless of course they miss the break of the day and get made to work on the front.

The real interesting team tactic for me though is how Lampre are approaching the Maglia Rossa competition.

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Current top 10 of the Maglia Rossa

After today’s stage, Ulissi has moved within striking distance of Nizzolo. Modolo really seems out of the picture and would need to win tomorrow and in Turin, hoping that Nizzolo does terribly in both sprints. I get the impression that all of Lampre’s eggs are in Ulissi’s basket. Ulissi I can envisage going on to win the stage into Pinerolo which would gain him some more points but with the points being weighted towards the sprint stages, he would need Nizzolo not to score any tomorrow. (Or very few).

Now, Ulissi could go in the break and try to take the 40 points on offer at the intermediate sprints, but that would be foolish. Doing so would mean Trek definitely would chase the break down, resulting in a sprint of some sort at the end and more points for Nizzolo. What Lampre really need to do is get someone in the BOTD and not chase, hoping that the likes of DD and Giant get someone in there too. Leaving all the onus on Trek to do the work. It’s a risky tactic, but after a tough, all guns blazing day like today, then it might just come off. The only thing with this approach is that Modolo has to be on side 100% and I think he will be. Sacrificing his own personal ambitions for the good of the team. Sprinters aren’t all that selfish, are they?

What does this all mean?

On a day where most will say sprint, I’m going to be my usual bold self and say a break makes it. (Because hey, it’s definitely worked so far this Giro…! 😂 😂 😂).

As said above, there will be too many teams that don’t want Modolo and Nizzolo dragged to the line as their rider will be sprinting for third. They’ll have a much better chance of the win from the break. Plus, with Lampre (and Ulissi’s) eyes fixed firmly on the Maglia Rossa they won’t want to gift Nizzolo 50 or 40 points.

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Prediction

If it’s hard enough predicting who’ll get in a break on a mountain stage, it’s nigh on impossible picking someone on a flat day with any confidence. The wild-card teams will feature, along with those who don’t have a stage yet. The IAM boys will be keen to get in the break to show their worth to new employers. Any Italian will fancy their chances. The list is endless. Well, once you go through all the riders I suppose it ends, but I digress…

I’m going to choose my rider, purely for the poetic nature of it all.

On National Escargot Day, Van Zyl never managed to get in the break. Like all snails, he’s a bit slow to the party and will make the break a day late, taking a most unlikely, but memorable victory.

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Let’s just hope he’s not feeling sluggish after today…

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Betting

I can’t really advise bets for a stage like this. It should really be a no bet day, unless you want to back some breakaway candidates. I’ll probably have a look at the exchanges and see if I can get some riders at 500 or 600/1 + for fun.

But for a bit of blog fun, we’ll go with the man who’s (100%, no doubt about it, positively) going to win the stage.

0.1pt on Van Zyl @200/1 PP.

 

Hope you enjoyed the racing today, because we could be in for a bit of a snooze fest tomorrow. As always, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Giro stage 16: Bressanone – Brixen Andalo

Rest-day Recap

Well, lets start of with stage 15 and a very unexpected winner: Alexander Foliforov. I did not see that coming! Although from early on, it looked like his time was a good one and we saw GC rider after GC rider fail to beat it. Kruijswijk came agonisingly close, losing out by under a second.

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Our man Chaves finished in 6th, not good enough for a winner, but good enough to move him up to 2nd on GC. Nibali seemed to be struggling and also had mechanical problems, costing him even more time, dropping him down to 3rd on GC.

I’m not going to slander or accuse Foliforov here, I’ll let the young man enjoy his win and if something gets revealed later then…

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The TT leaves the GC in a position I don’t think many expected going into the final week. Kruijswijk first with a healthy lead over Chaves and Nibali. It will be interesting to see how his LottoJumbo team manages. They don’t have the star riders that Astana or Movistar have, with Roglic and Battaglin as his two main support riders. So I fear that Kruijswijk could become isolated quite quickly in some of the stages. However, he’s been in that situation all Giro and coped okay until now, but it is a different task having to do all the chasing by yourself!

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Top 20 on GC after the TT

The final week, especially the latter stages, should be very exciting as everyone has to try to gain back time, therefore we should see some attacking riding. Some co-operation between those behind to isolate Krujswijk will no doubt happen.

Before we get to that point, let’s talk about tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

After the rest-day the riders will be greeted with a stage profile that they’ll look at with trepidation. At only 132km long and categorised as 3-star in difficulty it doesn’t, on paper at least, appear too bad.

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Stage Profile

 

However, it will no doubt be a very fast day as a lot of the riders will want to get in the break because that seems the most likely outcome for a stage winner. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the break finally get away after the 50km mark. That is of course unless everyone is tired from the past few days and a group gets away early. LottoJumbo would love that!

Furthermore, as I said after the last rest-day, the riders won’t know how their bodies will react. Landa was the major casualty of a rest-day bug that he picked up!

Anyway, onto the actual route itself.

The first climb, Passo della Mendola is 14.8km long averaging 6.6% with a 10% max ramp.

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This climb isn’t too tough for the riders, but if the GC guys decide to try to isolate Kruijswijk early then we could be in for some major rider implosions. However, I think we’ll more than likely see our BOTD build up a substantial lead here.

After Mendelpass we get a long, slightly lumpy, descent before reaching the penultimate climb of the day: Fai della Paganella.

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Another Cat-2, but this one is a lot more testy. Officially, it is 10.2km long averaging 7.4%, with a max ramp of 15%. However, the average gradient is a bit skewed because of a false flat section that we have for around 1.5km. Therefore, the average gradient on the first part of the climb is closer to 8%. That steep ramp at the end could be a launchpad for some late attacks.

Once over the climb we have a fast descent before the final kick up to the line.

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“The final 10 km are clearly divided into two halves: first a fast-running descent (4 km) on wide roads with sharp downhill gradients, then a mild climb (6 km), growing steeper, up to 2 km from the finish. Next comes a false-flat uphill drag. The finish line lies on an 80-m long and 7.0-m wide asphalt home stretch, running gently uphill.” (Road Book extract)

If there is a group of riders together by this point, expect attacks on the final climb. Unless of course if someone is confident of their sprinting ability then they’ll sit in and follow the moves.

How will the stage pan out?

As I’ve said above, I think this stage lends itself to a breakaway. Well, I’m 90% sure it does. The reason for this is that the climbs aren’t too tough for the GC guys to make any differences so I think they’ll keep their powder-dry for later stages.

However, there is a small chance that they go full-gas to isolate Kruijswijk, but I don’t see it. Or, the likes of Movistar and Lampre try to keep the race together in the hope that Valverde and Ulissi can sprint for the win, with a finish that looks to suit them.

Who are the breakaway contenders?

As said in earlier previews, the contenders have to be strong climbers if they want to win. Furthermore, they can’t be too close on GC. We now get into the stage of the race where riders and teams get very protective of their top 10 on GC. With the way the GC is set up, there is a big gap between 12th place (Uran – 8’19 behind) and 13th place (Visconti – 16’31), so it is unlikely we’ll see the likes of Dimension Data chasing if Visconti or Pirazzi get away. However, if the gap to the break gets too high then they’ll have to!

Like before, I’m not going to list all of the options for a break as I could be here for a long time! Instead, I’m going to highlight 3 riders who might give it a go.

  • Joe Dombrowski. –  Uran’s lieutenant could be given the freedom to go in the break here, with the stage not set to be a GC battle and with Uran going in the wrong direction in terms of the classification. Dombrowski seems to be riding into the race very well and put in a good performance in the TT, finishing 8th. He was one of the fastest up the Passo Giau according to Strava on stage 14, so is clearly going well. Furthermore, he is known to be one of the biggest engines in the peloton in terms of numbers and watts that he can put out. That’s why Team Sky signed him up back in 2013. However, he didn’t fit into their style of riding so has ended up at the more quirky Cannondale, where he slowly seems to be finding his feet. If he makes the break then he’s a very dangerous candidate.

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  • Ian Boswell. – Another American who could go well in tomorrow’s stage. I’ve highlighted him for the break in a preview earlier in the race but he didn’t manage to get into the break that day. Like Dombrowski, he put in a solid TT, finishing 15th overall so he has some form. He’s not been active at all with his highest finishing position on a stage (aside from the TT) being 44th on stage 4. Saving energy for later in the race? I think the TT was a test of his form and he’ll be happy with the result he achieved and will be confident going into this week. Finishing 3rd in a Vuelta stage from a breakaway last year (behind Landa and Aru), highlights that he has the abilities to go well here.

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And finally, my favourite of the three picks (purely for its reasoning)…

  • Merhawi Kudus. – The young Eritrean has been touted for great things in the future by his team Dimension Data. He finished 6th on the Green Mountain back at the start of the season and in 2014 he came 2nd on GC at the Tour of Langkawi beating a certain Esteban Chaves (4th) and Steven Kruijswijk (7th). Clearly, he is a very talented cyclist. Like those listed above, he’s failed to excite anyone at this Giro sitting 44th on GC, over an hour down on Kruijswijk. Saving energy maybe? What for, you say?

Well, do you remember what happened on Mandela Day at the Tour last year?…

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Could his soft-pedalling at the Giro all be a ruse, so that he can make it in the break tomorrow? I hope so and no doubt the Eritrean cycling fans would love that too!

Special mention must go to Johan Van Zyl or “The Snail” as he’s otherwise known. The 24th of May is also National Escargot Day so he, as a breakaway expert, might find himself in the break. Although I fear that the climbs will be too tough for him to hold on and take a win.

Prediciton

As I said above, I think tomorrow is a breakaway day!

We’ll see a hotly contested battle from the majority of the peloton to try to get into the move that stays away. This involves a certain element of luck,but persistence also pays off.

After dissuading myself from backing Dumoulin at the start of the Giro because everything would be “too Disney”, I’m making a complete U-turn on that principle (mainly because I’m in a good mood) and we’ll get our Eritrean winner on Eritrean Independence day. Merhawi Kudus takes the stage, and everyone lives happily ever after…

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Betting

A day not to get overly involved with, pick a few breakaway lottery selections for fun. I’m just going for the 3 I’ve mentioned above.

Dombrowski 0.3pts @66/1 with PP. I’d take the 50 available at Coral. (He is also available at 40s on the Betfair Exchange – that’s as low as I’d go)

Boswell 0.3pts @100/1 with PP. I’d take the 50-66/1 available with others.

Kudus 0.1pts @150/1 with PP or 125/1 with B365. This price was only available when I tweeted it out, but I’m including it because I tweeted it out. I would still put a little stake on him at 66/1 you can get with Betfair Sportsbook.

You might find that these guys will be priced more favourable on the BF Exchange so keep your eyes peeled.

I’ll probably tweet something out in-play if none of the above make it into the break. After all, in-play is King.

 

Hope you enjoyed this preview. It was a bit more long-winded this time but that’s because I felt I had more to say. Again, any RTs, Likes, or general discussion Twitter would be great. I hope we get an entertaining stage tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.