Women’s Amstel Gold Race 2018 Preview

The race is back for its second edition as part of the Women’s World Tour and like the men’s counterpart, it kicks off the Women’s Ardennes Week.

In 2017 we had an aggressive race almost from the gun but it wasn’t the climbs that split the race. Instead, strong winds caused echelons on the flatter sections between the hills, before they did their own damage. The penultimate ascent of the Cauberg saw Deignan, Niewiadoma and Longo Borghini escape but due to everyone not putting in their fair share of work and a massive chase from Van Dijk saw the gap reduced before the Bemlerberg. Van Vleuten, van der Breggen and Rivera attacked on the climb and managed to bridge to the trio up ahead. From there the outcome was almost inevitable as numbers for Boels played their part; van der Breggen attacked solo and she was not seen again by the others until the podium ceremony.

Cycling: 4th Amstel Gold Race 2017 / Women

Behind, Deignan made it a 1-2 for Boels after winning the sprint with Niewiadoma and Van Vleuten inseparable in the photo finish so they oddly shared third place.

Will we see a similarly attacking race this year? First, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Pretty much the same as last year and in fact, it is 3kms shorter at only 118km, making it one of the shortest races in the UCI WWT calendar. Hopefully it should entice some attacking racing!

amstel-gold-race-wwt-2018 — @LasterketaBurua

17 climbs littered throughout 118km will test everyone in the peloton, but it is the main circuit of Geulhemmerberg (1.2km at 4.6%), Bemelerberg (900m at 4.5%) and Cauberg (800m at 6.5%) that will see the decisive action as the riders face a full 3 laps.

The women’s race sticks to a more traditional Amstel route, with the Cauberg coming just before the finish.

cauberg

The famous climb has its steepest ramps in the opening 400m as that section averages 9.5%. This is where the more explosive riders and better climbers will hope to drop anyone that is trying to cling on for a sprint. That is if we see a big group arrive at the foot slopes…

The van der Breggen factor

So often we here about the Sagan factor when talking about the men’s races (I myself am guilty of that – see my preview for Amstel) but little is made of just how good the Boels rider actually is. Last year she survived the #HaugheyCurse and took home a famous Ardennes triple and this season she has started with a bang winning Strade Bianche and the Tour of Flanders in dominant fashion. On a hilly course like this there are very few who can match her if it comes down to the final climbs. She also possesses a very strong time trial which allows her to attack from a distance and hold off a bunch.

All of the other teams and riders will be very wary of her but what can they do to stop her? Well, one thing is already going their way with Deignan not racing this season which means that van der Breggen will have a much tougher task in the finale. Boels still have a strong team with Guarnier, Pieters and Canuel hopefully going far into the day.

However, if the other teams start making some serious attacks from a good bit out, then Boels might not have the firepower to keep it all together. I hope we see some of the co-leaders / second in line riders give it a dig from 30km out to shake things up a bit. Nonetheless, given how imperious van der Breggen has been, she still has to start as favourite for the race. Who will she be up fighting against for the title though?

Contenders

Katarzyna Niewiadoma.

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She couldn’t break the Boels dominance last year but three podium places in a row throughout the week highlights just how good she is at this type of terrain. So far this season she has been slowly building form, taking aim at this week, but also managing to win Trofeo Binda along the way. An exciting rider to watch, she lit the blue touch-paper last season and I expect to see her and her Canyon team ride aggressively again – they are super strong. With Ferrand Prevot by her side, they could form a formidable duo, only if the latter has fully recovered from her crash in Flanders.

Annemiek van Vleuten.

A true warrior, she also went down in Flanders but continued on with a dislocated shoulder before sprinting to third place. This race is important to her due to it being on home roads and she possesses all of the attributes to go well here. Mitchelton bring a very strong squad in support of van Vleuten with Spratt and Kennedy both very capable climbers themselves. They are one of the teams that I hope animate the race in the closing hour of racing as any three of the riders mentioned could potentially win the race in the right circumstance.

Elisa Longo Borghini.

The Italian champion has had a solid start to the year but compared to previous season’s she will be rather disappointed. She’s missed a few previous races due to illness but arrives at this race feeling much better apparently. An almost ever-present rider in these types of races she will want to be near the front tomorrow. One thing I admire about her is her never say die attitude and that she is always willing to work with whatever group she finds herself in. It will be hard for her to win but she’ll be helped by super-domestique Cordon Ragot deep into the race, who might even get a chance herself in a tactical finish.

Ashleigh Moolman Pasio.

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This is what the South African’s early season has been geared towards but to say she has just been finding form at the other races would be an insult! Her lowest finishing position out of her 8 race days so far is 8th, not bad. A great climber who also can produce a very strong sprint, a lot of her contenders will be worried about bringing her to the line. Her team isn’t the best and a lot of the workload will lie with Ludwig in the closing stages but given the form Moolman is in then she can’t be discounted no matter what.

Some others to look out for include Stultiens (Waowdeals), Gillow (FDJ), Ensing (Ale), Van Dijk (Sunweb) and Riabchenko (Doltcini).

Prediction

I think we’ll see a tactical race and having numbers in the front groups on the road will be very important. However, I think we’ll see a small group of 4 or 5 escape with Van Vleuten winning a sprint to the line after her team-mate Kennedy does a lot of the pulling at the head of the race in the closing kilometres.

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Coverage

The final 45 minutes of the race will be streamed on Eurosport Player and via various different broadcasters throughout the world so have a check of your local listings to find more.

Before the live stream starts though you can follow the race via the hashtag #AGRWomen or #AGR18 or just #AGR… I’m not a fan of organisers that can’t decide on one hashtag for their events!

Thanks for reading as always. Who do you think is going to win? Will it be one of the usual suspects or could we see a surprise? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Amstel Gold Race 2018 Preview

A week of racing in the Ardennes kicks off with a race that is not in the Ardennes and sponsored by some average Dutch beer; it can only mean it is Amstel Gold time!

Last season the organisers decided to switch things up and move away from the traditional Cauberg finish in a hope to liven up the racing. Their plan worked rather well and with what was the year of the long attack, we saw the winning move get away with 35km to go. A group of 7 riders with the majority of stronger teams represented worked well enough to ensure it would be they who were fighting out for the title. On the last climb of the day Kwiatkowski and Gilbert attacked, managing to shake off their break compatriots, before they worked well together until the final sprint to the line. The Belgian champion was too strong but the result was fairly easy in the end as the Sky rider seemed to open up his sprint too early.

16-04-2017 Amstel Gold Race; 2017, Quick - Step Floors; 2017, Team Sky; Gilbert, Philippe; Kwiatkowski, Michal; Valkenburg;

I guess you can take the Cauberg out as the final climb but that doesn’t stop Gilbert from winning Amstel!

Behind, Albasini took home third place with a comfortable sprint win ahead of the remnants of the breakaway.

Will we see a similarly attacking race this year? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

An almost identical route to last year but the organisers have made one slight change to hopefully keep the excitement right until the end of the day.

amstel-gold-race-2018 — @LasterketaBurua

As was the case last season, the opening 200km will act mainly to sap the strength of the riders legs before the racing really begins in the last 60kms. The most critical part of the day will be the 4 climbs the riders tackle in quick succession; Kruisberg, Eyserbosweg, Fromberg and Keutenberg.

The Kruisberg is a reasonably long climb for the area at a total distance of 1.8km with an average of 4.8%. Not overly steep, it should be tackled at a pretty fast pace but it does beg for the puncheurs in the race to attack. Almost immediately after cresting the Kruisberg the riders descend and being climbing the Eyserbosweg.

eyserbosweg

The climb (900m at 9.3%) has a sting in the tail with its steepest gradients coming in the final few hundred metres. The perfect place for a strong rider to attack and get a gap.

A slightly longer descent follows before the Fromberg (1.6km at 3.6%), then rinse and repeat with another section of downhill which precedes the climb of the Keutenberg.

keutenberg

1.2km at at 5.9% doesn’t tell the whole story as you can see on the profile, the opening 400m averages over 12.5%. Ouch!

Given that all these climbs are traversed over a roughly 10km stretch, it should theoretically see the race explode like it did last year. It will then be a case of: Who’s ahead and who’s left to chase?

The race isn’t over though as the riders will still have to face the famous Cauberg (800m at 6.5%) and the Geulhemmerberg (1.2km at 4.6%) before the final climb of the day: the Bemelerberg.

bemelerberg

A fairly easy ascent if taken on its own, after 250km of racing the 900m climb at 4.5% might just see a rider sneak clear if they launch a strong enough attack.

Unlike last year, the organisers have changed the run-in from the Bemelerberg to the finish line, opting for narrower roads in the hope to disrupt a chase and entice attacking racing.

Screen Shot 2018-04-13 at 14.59.59

As you can see, it descends before kicking back up at almost exactly the same gradient until the Flamme Rouge. That final uncategorised rise averages 1.7% for almost 1.5kms. Nothing too crazy, but it could be the place for a last-ditch attack from some.

How will the race pan out?

Amstel used to be a bit of a dull race with most teams and riders waiting for the sprint up the Cauberg and one kilometre flat run in to the line. However, things changed last year with the altered route and we had an attacking race that was delicately poised for a while before it eventually tipped in favour of those up ahead. Will we see something similar this year?

It is hard to draw on any course form given we’ve only had the one edition of this new route but I think we will see an attacking race again and that is because the current world champion, Peter Sagan, is here.

We’ve seen countless times that on terrain similar to this he should be able to make the finish with the main group. His win in Roubaix was incredible so it is fair to say that he is in pretty good form. If the peloton arrives as a reduced bunch at the finish, no one beats him. Well, maybe only one or two have a chance but after a tough day out, not even Valverde can beat Sagan in a sprint. The other teams and riders will know this, so therefore to increase their chances they have to go on the attack early and hope to get into a breakaway that sticks. Unless of course Sagan makes the move himself, then it should be fun!

So with that said, I think it will be someone from a break that goes with roughly 35km left who wins the race. As to who, there are numerous names and potential contenders but I could be here all day going through permutations and nobody’s got time for that.

Therefore, here’s a short list of four to keep an eye on throughout the afternoon.

The not so famous four

Rui Costa.

0306-Rui-Costa

After an exceptional start to 2017, the Portuguese rider has not managed to live up to the same heights so far this year with only a few top 10s to his name so far. He was hampered by illness in Paris Nice but bounced back with a fairly solid showing in Itzulia where he finished 12th on GC. Not spectacular but not bad. The Ardennes Classics are his playground normally though as he heads into this week with confidence and good morale. I don’t think we’ll see him wait around until the finish and he’ll go on the attack at some point, UAE will ride an attacking race in general, it just depends if he makes the right move or not. If it comes down to a small group sprint of 8 or so riders then Costa will fancy his chances.

Jay McCarthy.

Another who will like the hand he has been dealt with if he makes it into a small group sprinting for the line. McCarthy is the perfect tactical ploy to send up the road so that Sagan gets a “free” ride behind. I expect Bora to go on the offensive so that they don’t get shouldered with the work back in the peloton. I’m a big fan of McCarthy’s and it is good to see him develop each year. This season he took a big win at Cadel’s Race before taking a commanding sprint victory in the recent Itzulia. My concern is if he can match the best on the climbs, but given their fairly short and punchy nature then he should be able to.

Søren Kragh Andersen.

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The young Dane has had a pretty disappointing season so far results wise but like a few others, it has been plagued by illness and injury. However, he seems to be on the mend and he arrives at this race as second in command to Matthews, with Sunweb stating that they have a few cards to play throughout the race with Andersen being one of them. A very punchy rider who should be able to cope on these short climbs it will be interesting to see how he approaches the day and if like McCarthy, he gets the nod to go on the attack while Matthews waits behind. A very talented rider, he is not one to underestimate.

Alexis Vuillermoz.

Ag2R bring an attacking squad with them to this race as the parcours doesn’t suit anyone on their team 100%. Expect to see Vuillermoz, Naesen, Dillier and Bakelants be attentive at the front and aggressive throughout the day. On paper the route looks best for Vuillermoz as he should be able to cope with the climbs the best. In Itzulia he made a few forays into the break but nothing too exciting to note, however, he will be peaking for this week (like a lot of people) so should not be discounted. I hope we get to see his trademark goldfish breathing style at the head of the race!

Prediction

An escape to stay away like last year and I’ll go with Jay McCarthy to get the win.

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I’ve seen enough of a progression from the young Aussie to have him as a strong contender for this race, he just needs team tactics to go his way!

Betting

1pt EW McCarthy @ 66/1 (Would take 40/1)

1pt EW Costa @ 66/1 (Would take 40/1)

0.5pt EW Vuillermoz @ 150/1 (Would take 100/1)

0.5pt EW Kragh Andersen @ 200/1 (Would take 150/1)

All with Bet365.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win on Sunday? Will we see an aggressive race again or will it all come down to a sprint? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Amstel Gold Race 2017 Preview

Only having been ran as a race three times in 2001-2003, the Amstel Gold race for women returns this year after a long hiatus. Defending champion Nicole Cooke is obviously no longer here (like the other previous winners), so we’ll have a new champion come Sunday afternoon!

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

At only 121km its shorter than several of the World Tour events we’ve had so far this year. However, don’t let its short nature fool you, the organisers have still managed to incorporate 17 ascents throughout the day.

amstel-gold-race-2017-new — @LasterketaBurua

Three climbs form the focus of the event; the Geulhemmerberg, the Bemelerberg and the Cauberg.

geulhemmerberg

The Geulhemmerberg comes furtherst away from the finish on the last lap, at roughly 16km to go. Not an overly tough climb, it does have some steeper ramps of 8%, but it should be a big ring climb for most of the bunch. The false flat drag over the top can certainly cause some gaps, especially if those behind are on the limit and the pace is on at the front of the peloton.

We then have a fast descent and some flat before reaching the penultimate climb of the day, the Bemelerberg.

bemelerberg

Like the Geulhemmerberg it does have some steepish ramps, but it is not a tough climb. What will make it tough is it’s position in the race and how aggressively the day has been ridden beforehand. It does present a springboard for an attack because there are only 5km from the peak to the bottom of the Cauberg. Speaking of which…

Cauberg_Valkenburg_profile

A climb that does have some properly steep gradients, the natural climbers of the peloton will hope to use them to their advantage to break the will of the all-rounders. There is a chance for a regrouping over the top, with 1.5km of false flat before the line.

Is a sprint on the cards…

How will the race pan out?

It’s difficult to say really. Covering my back here!

The route is obviously similar to that which we’ve seen in the men’s edition over the past few years, with the Cauberg coming so close to the finish line. Will that mean a conservative race where the peloton is kept together until then?

If this was last year I’d say no, due to how attacking the races were, with a lot of favourites making race-winning moves from relatively far out. However, things this year have changed. Teams and riders seem to be on a more level playing field. We’ve had 4 different riders (teams) win the 5 World Tour events so far, with only Coryn Rivera being the repeat winner. Compare that to last year where Boels had won all 5 races, with Deginan and Blaak sharing the spoils.

So there is a chance that the teams cancel each other out and we do get a sprint up the Cauberg for the final time.

Yet, I think we’ll see the women’s peloton return to the incredibly hectic racing from last season, with attacks all day. On a wearing course like Amstel, domestiques will get tired from having to chase which I think will lead to an open race on the final 20km lap, and a strong group will get away before the final time up the Cauberg.

Contenders

Even with their remarkably less dominant start to the season, you can’t start anywhere other than with Boels Dolmans for this race. The team wanted a slower start to the year, with more of a focus on this coming week than the opening few spring races, which they’ve certainly managed. They have a few riders who could win in certain scenarios, but Deignan and Van der Breggen look to be their best options.

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The former World Champion has had a lighter race schedule this year, after suffering from illness which saw her withdraw from a few events. However, she’s looked strong when racing so far and a 3rd place in Strade highlights that she can cope on the climbs with the best. I’m sure the Brit will fancy her chances in a sprint! As for her team-mate, I was very impressed with Van der Breggen in the Healthy Ageing Tour and she seems to be peaking very well for this week. A better climber than Deignan, the Olympic champion has all the credentials to take victory tomorrow afternoon. Numbers will be key for the Dutch team and if Guarnier is back to full fitness they even have a third great option to play.

Boels main threat could be Strade winner Elisa Longo Borghini. The Italian started the season in scintillating form and has top 10’d in four out of the 5 World Tour events so far. An aggressive rider, she’ll hope to force a selection earlier in the race to eliminate as many riders from other teams as possible, relying on climbing super-domestique Claudia Lichtenberg to stay with her for most of the day. Like a few others, she packs a handy sprint after a tough day.

Elisa-Longo-Borghini-Strade-Bianche-salute-2017-Wiggle-High5-pic-RCS-Sport

Sunweb will be hoping to continue their great start to the year with another win here. I’m not sure who their main card will be on the day but you would think Van Dijk has the best chance. She’s been very consistent this year so far, taking her first win in the recent Healthy Ageing Tour. Her lack of a really good sprint will mean that she’ll more than likely have to solo to the line. I think Kirchmann will also go better here than she has done throughout this season so far. The Canadian really burst onto the scene last year with a great debut on the European circuit. She trains in the Limburg area so will know the roads off by heart and is my dark horse for the race. I’m also intrigued to see how current WWT leader Rivera does. Transforming into much more than a sprinter, I would think the climbs here would be too tough for her, but you never know, especially when she has the leader’s jersey on her back!

You would expect Niewiadoma to be WM3’s leader as Vos has been out of action for a little while and still recovering. The Pole has continued on from where she left off in 2016 with a string of great performances in 2017 so far. She is still missing that elusive victory this year, but that may well change tomorrow with a bit of luck on he side. As much as I don’t think Vos will be up there at the end of the race, you can never discount her because she is Marianne Vos after all. Furthermore, the finish of the Cauberg was the scene of her World Championship win in 2012 and as a Dutch rider she’ll be fired up for this race!

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Orica once again arrive with their crack squad of riders who will no doubt animate the race. Garfoot or Van Vleuten have the best chance of winning the race but they do have strenght in numbers and will hope to use that to their advantage. However, I have said this in the past few previews, that I think they have “too many cooks” and will once again miss out on victory.

Canyon will hope to be up there at the pointy end of the race with Ferrand–Prevot or Cecchini. Likewise, so will Cervelo duo Moolman and young Danish sensation Uttrup Ludwig.

One rider I am keen to see go well is FDJ’s Shara Gillow (there may be some bias here as she is in my season long fantasy team). She crashed in Gent Wevelgem but bounced back with a 25th place in Flanders, coming home in the second group. An under-rated climber, she was very attacking Strade, eventually finishing 6th. Without a great sprint, she’ll more than likely need to come to the line alone, but given her TT credentials that is certainly a possibility!

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Prediction

The race will be broken up going into the final lap of the race and Boels will play the numbers game excellently. I’ll go for their rider who has shown to be in form just now; Anna van der Breggen to take the win and possibly the start of an Ardennes triple!

Emma Johansson, Anna Van De Breggen

Thanks for reading and as always, any feedback is greatly appreciated! Who do you think will win and how will they do it?! I’ll have Tour of the Alps (Trentino) daily stage previews over the next few days (no time for GC) along with men and women’s Fleche on Tuesday. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Amstel Gold Race 2017 Preview

The Ardennes classic that isn’t in the Ardennes!

Amstel Gold Race returns once again this year as the opener for our Ardennes classic week, with the 52nd edition of the race. The cobbled classics in the north of France and Belgium are finished with the attention now turning to the rolling hills of the Ardennes and Limburg regions. We’re in the latter on Sunday for Amstel!

Last year saw a late attack over the top of the Cauberg from Gasparotto and Valgren. They managed to just hold on to the line, with the Italian taking an emotional victory, dedicating the win to team-mate Demoitié.

Behind, it was Colbrelli who won the bunch sprint for third place.

If I’m honest, the reason I prefer the Cobbled Classics over the Ardennes is because the cobbled races are much more attacking (they’ve been even more attacking this year) whereas the likes of Amstel come down to a sprint up the final climb. However, that might change this year due to two reasons; teams seem more keen to attack from far out, and the fact the final ascent of the Cauberg has been taking out.

Speaking of which…

The Route

At 261km in length and with 35 ascents in total, it’s not for the faint-hearted!

amstel-gold-race-2017 — @LasterketaBurua

Although they go over a lot of climbs in the first three-quarters of the route, I expect those climbs to more sap the legs than anything else and for the race to really heat up when we’re into the last 50km of the day.

The fast passage of 4 climbs in succession; Kruisberg; Eyserbosweg; Fromberg; and Keutenberg between the 220km and 235km will be a launch point for some “early” attacks in my opinion. We’ve seen this in the past with the likes of Nibali surging away at this point to put the hurt on the riders behind. Considering the way that the one-day races (aside from MSR) have gone this year so far, it is probably advised for most teams if they stay attentive and try to get at least one rider up the road at this point. Preferably it should be at least a second or third favourite in the team and one they would be relatively confident in winning the race so they have to do no effort whatsoever behind.

I say “early” as it would be early for this race considering its history but there would only be roughly 30km to the finish from that point. We’ve had winning moves go from further out this Spring so far!

The almost 10km of flat between the Keutenberg and the Cauberg will be important in the race. Good co-operation ahead could see that group build a large gap if a lot of the favourites teams are represented and there is an unwillingness to chase behind. Likewise, the opposite scenario has an equal chance of playing out.

The Cauberg still could play a significant part in the race as it could be another launchpad for attacks. Once over the top, there’s only about 18km left in the race and not long until the penultimate climb; the Geulhemmerberg.

Not an overly difficult climb, it does have some steepish ramps but it’s position at the end of the race is the main challenge. We then end with the Bemelerberg.

Again it’s not an overly difficult climb, but depending on the racing before hand, we could see some small gaps here. There are then roughly 5km or so of flat before the sprint to the line, or will it…

How will the race pan out?

I expect an attacking race, although that might be wishful thinking more than anything else.

With the change of finish, the puncheurs can’t sit and wait because if they do, it’s game over as the “sprinters” we have here should be able to cope with the last two climbs easily.

Therefore, I expect attacks to come on the section of 4 climbs I highlighted above (at around 40km left), but I would not be surprised to see something relatively dangerous go even earlier than that.

It all then depends on who and what teams have made the split. As we saw in Brabantse on Wednesday, Direct Energie were very keen to chase to help Coquard but Sunweb were very disappointing in support of Matthews. The latter have a much stronger team here in support of the Aussie but they aren’t the type of riders you would rely on to chase down attacks all day.

The race is delicately poised between being a great afternoon of attacking cycling, or a snoozefest that’s controlled for a reduced bunch sprint. But if there is one race this week that has a chance of being won by what I would call a proper outsider, it is Amstel.

Contenders

There are obvious candidates for the win such as sprinters Matthews/Coquard/Colbrelli and Ardenne’s specialists like Gilbert/Valverde/Kwiatkowski, but as I think there is a chance we might get a relative shock of a winner and I’m nearly at 900 words already, I’m going to just name a shortlist of riders to keep an eye on in varying circumstances. So apologies if you were wanting an exhaustive list!

Lilian Calmejane.

Aside from Van Avermaet, the Frenchman is arguably the form rider of the year; picking up 6 wins so far this season if you include his three GC wins. Most of his successes have come on rolling terrain and Amstel is the perfect platform for him to continue his outstanding season. Admittedly, this is a step up compared to the races he has been winning, but with a GT stage win already to his name, he must be confident! For him to win, he’ll need to be one of the riders involved in a far out attack and with a lot of teams represented, they stay away. He’s got an OK sprint compared to some other climbers, but more than likely he’ll have to come to the line solo. Allez Lilian!

Nathan Haas.

The Aussie had a great start to the year, finishing a very impressive 4th in the Tour Down Under and coming home 10th on the Green Mountain stage in Oman. Since then he’s struggled with allergies, particularly in Catalunya where he had to withdraw but his return to racing in Brabantse was promising. In fact, he looked good and was attentive at the front of the peloton in the final lap. The race on Wednesday will hopefully have opened the legs up and he’ll be an even greater fighting force come Sunday. I’m sure he’ll just be hoping for a bit more luck…

Alexey Lutsenko.

The Astana rider won the U23 World’s on this course back in 2012 after catching everyone by surprise and opening up his sprint early. Funnily enough though, it’s the change of course this year that gives him another chance of victory. The removal of the Cauberg helps the Kazakh as the professional peloton ride the climb more aggressively in Amstel than they did in that U23 2012 Worlds. With a solid sprint he has a chance of being up there in a reduced bunch gallop, but it’s his attacking nature that gives him the best chance of taking victory; whether that be from a breakaway or making a move in the final 3km as everyone hesitates behind. With his third in Dwars this season he’s highlighted his abilities as a rider and that big win is just around the corner for him I think.

Jens Keukeleire.

A talented rider for a while who seemed to be hampered by bad luck or just underperformed when called upon. However, that changed in the second half of last season when he first of all won a stage in Slovenia but then followed it up with a very impressive sprint victory in the Vuelta. This year he’s been a bit off again so far, but it looked as if he was back to his best in when second in Gent Wevelgem. This change of course in theory should suit him and it will be interesting to see what role he takes in the Orica team along with Albasini/Gerrans/Impey. Definitely not a favourite, but he has a slim outside chance!

Prediction

I’m still torn between this race being great or extremely dull. Obviously I hope if it’s the former! The route change really throws a cat amongst the pigeons in terms of predictions and you’ll struggle to find anyone predicting the race with confidence.

Nonetheless, I’ll go for an exciting race and a win for a rider who’s been chasing that big win for a while, and his first part of the season has been aimed at this event. Nathan Haas to win!

Betting

Definitely not a race to get heavily involved with;

Haas 0.5pt EW @50/1 with various (take the 4 places at Coral if you can)

Keukeleire 0.25pt EW @200/1 with Bet365 (take 150/1)

I tweeted out the Calmejane and Lutsenko picks midweek but they’ve since shortened.

Calemjane 0.25pt EW @250/1 (take 100s available but no less)

Lutsenko 0.25pt EW @200/1 (take 125s available but no less)

Thanks for reading and always any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win? Will it be an open race or a dull one where everything stays together until the end? I’ll have my women’s Amstel preview out tomorrow so return for that! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Eneco Tour Stage 6 Preview: Riemst -> Lanaken

Today’s Recap

BMC won, but a “not-completely ruled out” Etixx pushed them very close!

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It was a strong win from the Swiss outfit but not as convincing as I had expected and it leaves the GC battle well poised going into the final two stages, with several strong riders less than a minute behind. Here’s what the top 20 looks like.

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It’s great from a viewing perspective as a lot of riders will still fancy their chances, but it makes it harder from a previewing slant because it becomes more unpredictable and open.

Speaking of which, let’s have a look at tomorrow’s stage!

The Route

A mini-Amstel?

This stage is certainly not as tough as in previous years, but the organisers yet again haven’t been kind and provided proper information for the stage. So like on the previous road stages, I’ve had to consult several sources to try to get my head around this stage!

Although that’s not entirely helpful as several sites somehow take the one GPX file and produce varying figures of elevation gain; 1431m (ridewithgps), 1969m (Strava), 1116m (google maps on Maplorer), 4121m (raw data from GPX on Maplorer), 1272m (cronoescalada) and 2027m (utrack.crempa).

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The first profile you see above is from the Maplorer website, with the second being from @LasterketaBurua (Go check them out on Twitter!).

I’ve decided to put both profiles in as it provides a good comparison of how the scale can change how severe a climb looks. It’s also interesting to see that the profiles are pretty much identical in shape, yet the elevation gain is very different!

As you can see on the 2nd profile, we have a few short, sharp ascents around 50km from the finish. Potentially too far out from the finish to do any damage but you never know.

The Golden Kilometre (GK) starts 200m before the foot of the Hallembaye climb, which itself is 800m at 8.6%, with the end of the GK being at the summit. There is a 200m section of above 12%, which will sting the legs!

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We then have a shallow descent/flat until the final climb of the day, the Muizenberg at 18km left. The climb itself isn’t very tough, only 650m at 6.6%, but if the racing has been on early on then it is a potential launchpad for a group of riders to escape.

The final 3km is fairly technical, with a few sharp turns and roundabouts to navigate.

screen-shot-2016-09-23-at-17-23-59 — Strava profile viewable here

The final 500m section of the stage rises at roughly 2.2%, with a max gradient of around 4.5%. Not exactly Amstel-esque!

How will the race pan out?

That very much depends on the attitude of the teams.

The stage isn’t overly tough and a few of the sprinters would hope to make it to the end of the day in the peloton. However, the 140-155km section is key. If some of the teams go crazy here, (looking at you Etixx!), then this could put an end to the sprinters hopes and make the final 40km incredibly exciting.

The only problem with this is that there are still 40km left.

There are the two hills that I’ve highlighted above, but the majority of it is flat-ish road. The Golden Kilometre will tempt the Ardennes riders into action. That may be on the toughest section mentioned above, or on the actual climb itself. But there is still plenty of road left for teams to re-organise and bring them back. Unless of course we get the right mix of riders and a highly motivated escape group!

I think the bonus seconds on offer later on in the stage will result in the day’s early breakaway not making it all the way.

So we’re left with two probable outcomes; a GC selection at around 50km to go that makes it to the line, or some kind of reduced bunch sprint. Both outcomes come with an attached “late-attack” option.

Either way, this man will be there.

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Outcome 1 -> GC shake-up

In this situation we get a strong group of around 20-30 riders getting clear with about 40km to go. Due to the amount of teams and strong riders represented they manage to stay away as the chase behind is unorganised and lacking in firepower.

Once the gap has been established it will be incredibly tactical! A battle between BMC and Etixx as they both have 4 riders within 40 seconds of the race lead. Etixx actually have 5, but I’m discounting Kittel because I don’t think he would be able to follow over the quick succession of climbs.

Anytime an Etixx rider attacks, BMC will follow and vice versa. The danger for BMC is that looking forward to Sunday’s stage, they might not be overly confident with how Dennis will cope on the cobbles of the Muur, so they can’t rest on his 16 second advantage. Therefore, Van Avermaet is their trump card. He’s the rider that they would be most confident in following anyone (Sagan) up the Muur so they will need to keep him close in GC tomorrow.

Dennis may use his TTing abilities himself and go on the offensive himself!

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This tactical battle between BMC/Etixx/Sagan could see other teams benefiting from it. A rider could launch a late attack in the final 10km and with no real organisation behind it could stick until the finish. Look to the likes of Izagirre, Dumoulin, Naesen, Navardauskas or Wellens.

Of course, we could see this group come to the line together, or even a fragment of it (10 riders or so) and get an uphill sprint.

No-one will want to tow Sagan to the line though!

Outcome 2 – Reduced Bunch Sprint

The damp squib option.

With the parcours not being overly difficult a few of the better climbing sprinters could make the split if the pace isn’t too high over that now famous 140-155km section.

In this situation, we would probably have a peloton of around 80 or 90 riders come to the line together.

There would more than likely be a split in that group when they pass the golden kilometre, but in this situation it would regroup afterwards, much like we saw in Stage 4.

Like Outcome 1, there is the possibility of a late attack sticking if they are the correct rider(s), strong enough, and there is no co-operation behind.

If we do get some kind of sprint I would expect Matthews, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Nizzolo, Boasson Hagen, Trentin and possibly Greipel to make it.

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Of course, GVA and Sagan will be there too.

But no-one will want to tow Sagan to the line though!

Prediction

Hmmmm. It’s a tough one.

Sagan is a favourite in every situation, so much so that he won’t win in my opinion. Unless he just decides to ride away from everyone!

I think Outcome 1 is more likely, but I favour some kind of late attack. Whether that be solo or a small group of 5-10 riders getting away. For it to succeed there will need to be at least 1 Etixx/BMC rider in it.

I’ve already mentioned a few riders I like for this situation above, but another few I’d like to throw into the ring are Stybar & Degenkolb.

Stybar because he looked incredibly strong in the Vuelta, has won this race before, not afraid of an uphill sprint and he is reasonably far down on GC at 40 seconds.

Degenkolb is more of a long-shot but if this was last year then he’d be up there with Sagan on the “don’t tow to the line” wagon. He seems to be re-finding his feet after the horrific accident earlier in the year, and I would love to see him go well here. He should be able to cope with the climbs, possibly with that GC selection Option and the uphill sprint is right up his street! Far enough down on GC to find himself in that late attack if he doesn’t fancy it against Sagan in the sprint.

But I’ll go for neither of them and say that Nelson Oliveira wins. Movistar are a team without a sprinter and will be going on the offensive. Oliveira isn’t a real danger on GC as he should struggle on Sunday, so could well be given some leeway!

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I did have this down as a Naesen win but the odds are too short and I can’t suggest someone to win and not have backed them!

Betting

A day for small stakes and putting eggs in several baskets!

0.1pt EW on the following;

Ion Izagirre @ 250/1

Nelson Oliveira @ 300/1

Navardauskas @ 150/1

Devenyns @ 200/1

Kelderman @ 200/1

Thanks again for reading, hope you enjoyed this slightly longer preview. How do you think tomorrow’s stage will play out? As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Amstel Gold Race

Now that the cobbles of Flanders and Roubaix are over, we’re treated to the first of the three Ardennes Classics. Oddly, Amstel Gold doesn’t take part in the Ardennes at all, but in the Dutch region of Limburg. With similar hilly, rolling terrain, it deserves its place along with Fleche and Liege.

Roubaix Recap

Firstly, before I go onto Amstel in more depth, I’d like to a raise a few points about Roubaix.

What. A. Race.

Unfortunately I had to try to watch the race while on a couple of train journeys, switching between watching on SkyGo and following on Twitter (as I’d stupidly forgotten to charge my phone before I left). However, I made it make to the flat just in time to get the action end of the race. To me the race seemed to be marred and shaped by crashes.

Big crash #1 causes the split in the peloton with around 100-odd Km to go. Sagan and Cancellara caught behind. Etixx, Sky and Jumbo with numbers ahead of the split push on.
Small crashes #2 and #3 wipe out Team Sky’s presence in the front group. Taking down one of my ante-post bets in the shape of Luke Rowe. He digs deep to get back but that was the race over for him then, devoting himself to work for Stannard.
Then the Cancellara crash occurs not long after, taking out Sagan’s only ally from the race which effectively put an end to his bid for glory then.

So after all that I was left with my least fancied rider (EBH) up front. Vanmarcke put in two strong attacks over the last sections of cobbles but was brought back. Everyone left in the front group attacked at some point, but were all brought to heel. And the most unlikely of winners Matty Hayman sprinted to victory in the Velodrome, denying Boonen the record-breaking win. EBH finished 5th, but in a situation where you only get money back for coming top 3, he may as well have come last.

Hopefully you listened to me and kept your money in your pocket!

I personally believe that if he hadn’t gone down, then Rowe would have won that race. There might be a hint of bias because of me backing him at 125/1, but he looked very strong up to that point, effortlessly moving up the pack before each cobbled section. I guess the same could be said for Sagan and Cancellara being held up very early on and having to play catch up for a large portion of the race. But hey, that’s cycling! Anyway, onto Amstel…

Route

The race route remains largely unchanged from previous years, since the addition of the extra 1.8km after the final ascent of the Cauberg was added in 2013, using an almost identical route to 2015’s edition. Credit to the guys at CyclingStage for the route profile.

As you can see the race is up and down all day, with very little flat roads for the riders to get some respite. This will wear the riders down, slowly sapping the legs. The main climb is the Cauberg which is crested 4 times throughout and is the focal point of the race. Either being used as an early launchpad for an attack before the final lap (Kreuziger pulled off a winning move here in 2013) or a small bunch arriving at the bottom and going full gas up the final ascent.

The extra 1km or so on the end of the climb makes the race tactically different compared to the editions before 2013. It used to just be a slog all the way to the top, but now if a couple of guys get over together, then an unwillingness to work together can bring those who lost a few metres up the climb back into contention. This is exactly what happened at last years edition with Gilbert and Matthews cresting together, only for Valverde to tag along and do his usual sandbagging routine. Allowing a large group to reform and sprint to the line. However, it is possible for one rider to solo off the front at the top of the climb and make it all the way to the finish. Gilbert managed this not only in the 2014 edition, but also at the World Championships in 2012 which was held on a very similar course.

In terms of a spectacle, I have to be honest and say this race isn’t usually the best. More often than not it comes down to the final kick up the Cauberg. So if you’re busy in the afternoon, I wouldn’t fret as long as you can make it back for about 25km to go. De Brabantse Pijl which happened on Wednesday and is viewed as a warm up for this race, is and was much more exciting. Hopefully, I’m forced to eat my words come Sunday and someone tries to light it up from far out, but I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.

One thing that could make it more entertaining is the possibility of rain on Sunday. Going off AccuWeather, the current forecast gives it around a 50% chance of rain. Although I’ve seen other places who say there’s a less of a chance.

The rain could potentially make some of the descents more treacherous, so some gaps could form there. Plus, some riders are more adaptable to poor weather so they could gain an advantage in that sense, normally the Belgians and Dutch revel in it.

Race Favourites

Anyway, onto the favourites to clinch the title.

If you’ve been paying any attention to what I’ve written above then there is one name that keeps re-appearing: Gilbert, he is Mr Cauberg so to say. The climb is tailor-made for his explosive nature and not many in the world can match him up it when he’s on a good day. Previously, he’d go into this race as outright favourite. But with the emergence of cycling sensation Michael Matthews and an altercation with a drunken motorist, resulting in a broken finger, he comes in as joint 3rd favourite (along with Matthews team-“mate” Simon Gerrans). He promises that he’s in good shape and that he’s recovered fully from the altercation. I would not be surprised if he goes onto win but that niggle of a broken finger puts me off him slightly. However, he has shown good form recently, finishing 3rd in Volta Limburg at the start of the month and his results have been solid (not outstanding) from the rest of the early season. I am very close to backing him, but will need another day or so to come to that decision, I just can’t make up my mind. It’ll most likely be a no, but out of the top 4 favourites he is the one I’d go for. The 10/1 available at Ladbrokes is very tempting!

Orica come in with a two-pronged attack in the shape of Matthews and Gerrans. It’s safe to say these guys aren’t the best of friends. Gerrans was meant to lead Matthews out at the World’s but didn’t and they’ve been a bit frosty since then. Matthews even tweeted, congratulating Luis Leon Sanchez on his win at the first stage of Pais Vasco. A stage in which Gerrans won the bunch kick behind the escapees. I’m very interested to see the race team dynamic on Sunday with them being co-leaders. Matthews on paper should win this race, but races aren’t won on paper and I don’t think he’ll win it this year. There are too many things that could go against him. No one will want to bring him to the finish line for a sprint, so he’ll need to drop everyone. Yes, he looked strong in Brabantse having to close down attacks himself and will benefit from the race being kept together by others. I would love for him to win as I have him in my fantasy team but I’m not having it. Personally, I think Gerrans is over the hill (terrible pun intended) in these types of races and I wouldn’t be backing him at the 7/1 that’s available out there either.

The bookies have Kwiatkowski instilled as second favourite. But again, I wouldn’t be backing him at that price. He hasn’t raced since his implosion at Flanders so it’s very hard to gauge how he’s going. Yes, he won last year, but he had a different route into Amstel. Taking part in Pais Vasco and performing well there. I think his big aim for the Ardennes Classics will come the following Sunday at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, not here. Therefore,

Below the top 4 the market and race is quite open, with several riders being priced between 20/1 up to around 66/1.

Cases can be made for several of these riders. Vakoc won Brabantse on Wednesday and is clearly in form. In that race, both Wellens and Alaphillippe were strong and attacking, especially the latter. Gasparotto managed to take second place as well, so he has a good chance. Gallopin was an unconvincing third, but having a blow-out on Wednesday could dust off the cobwebs and he too could be in contention come Sunday. Coquard won the bunch gallop for 4th, but I think this race will be too much for him.

Those not competing on Wednesday must not be ruled out too! One of the riders that I think has a very good chance for this race is Rui Costa. He was climbing as well as I’d ever seen him during Pais Vasco, finishing 7th on GC and 6th on the final mountain TT (even with a mechanical), a discipline he’s not normally that good at. He was 4th in this race last year, and I’m convinced he can get himself onto the podium this year and has a good chance of winning. If it does rain too, he is a rider that can cope very well. His World Championship win in 2013 proves that. I have money on him at 40/1, but reinvested at the 22/1 available at SkyBet that can be seen above. That 22/1 is now gone, sorry!

Henao put in a dominant display at Pais Vasco but I think the Cauberg is too easy for him and his main focus will be Fleche where he should go in as one of the top 5 favourites. Instead, a left-field pick from Sky would be Ben Swift. Some of you will laugh at that, but I think he has the attributes. His climbing has improved massively this year but he will need there to be some regrouping as I don’t think he’ll make it up in the front 5-10 riders at the crest of the Cauberg. The only thing that puts me off him is that he’s not a winner. He always seems to come top 3 but nothing better.

A rider of similar ilk to Matthews and Swift is Movistar’s JJ Lobato. I managed to snap him up at 300/1 when the prices initially came out at Bet365, but he’s now into 80/1 with them after a win at the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe just over a week ago. I’m not too sure if I’d back him at that price, but without Valverde, I expect him to be co-leader along with Dani Moreno or possibly Gorka Izagirre/Visconti. He’s one to watch, but not put money on.

A few fun names I’d like to throw around at long odds are as follows:

Maurits Lammertink at 250/1 with Bet365. The 25 year-old who rides for Roompot has put in a few solid performances recently. Finishing 7th at Brabantse on Wednesday and a couple of top 10s at Sarthe the week before. Furthermore, he finished 21st in this race last year (finishing in the second group along with riders such as Wellens and Felline, who are much shorter price wise for this edition). A year older and stronger, I think he has a reasonable chance (although small compared to the favourites) Whether that be by going long, or if people just watch him if there’s a regrouping and he attacks, because he won’t be rated as highly/marked.

Sep Vanmarcke at 250/1 with Various bookmakers. Very unfortunate not to have won a semi-classic or classic this year so far and has had a lighter race schedule. He’s not too bad (very underrated IMO) on the short steep climbs (see Flanders or his performance at Strade in 2014) and has been very strong in every race he’s entered. He’s unlikely to win, hence he’s that price, but you never know. One thing that’s certain, is I’m sure we’ll get an attack from him at some point.

Arthur Vichot at 300/1 with B365 or Coral. The Frenchman was flying at the start of the season but has gone off the boil a bit recently. However, he got some good miles in at Pais Vasco and he’ll be FDJ’s leader here. Another rider who won’t be as heavily marked but can climb well and has a solid sprint on him.

Overall though, I’m going to stick my neck out (didn’t go well for PR but oh well) and say that Rui Costa will win this race. He has all the attributes to deliver a big result and has a proven track record in the past with performances such as his 4th last year. As I said above, he’s climbing better than ever before and has a good sprint after a tough day. Plus, if it rains I think that plays into his hands even more, he loves the bad weather! Hopefully we’ll get a scene like this one come Sunday.

Costa is my main bet, and he should be yours too 😉 In the interest of fairness and honesty, I’ve covered my back and put a couple of quid on the 3 riders I mentioned above. Would hate for them to go and do well and I’ve talked them up here! Nothing wild though and I’d recommend the same for you.

Thanks once again for everyone who’s gotten this far, hope you enjoy the race on Sunday and enjoy a few bottles of Amstel along with it! Any feedback, positive or negative is once again very much appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

MyTwoSpokesWorth

Where I give my opinions on the compelling world of professional bicycle racing

Tag: amstel gold race

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Eneco Tour Stage 6 Preview: Riemst -> Lanaken

Today’s Recap

The Route

How will the race pan out?

Outcome 1 -> GC shake-up

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Prediction

Betting

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Route

Race Favourites

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