Today’s Recap

The bunch was slowly whittled down over the final circuit due to a solid pace on the climb and a few crashes thrown into the mix. On the last ascent of the Muro itself we saw Lutsenko, Thomas and Yates get a gap but it was the latter who made the most stinging attack on the steepest section; with the other two not able to respond. Bora tried to chase it down but they didn’t manage to and Yates held on for a great win.

Behind Sagan took second place but more importantly Kwiatkowski sprinted to third and picked up some vital bonus seconds in the hunt for GC. It now puts him into the overall lead and considering his TT; he’s in the driving seat for the overall title.

Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow though.

The Route

A stage that starts off with a lot of rolling terrain in the opening two-thirds, the flat section at the end should ensure a bunch sprint.

Compared to the fairly straightforward sprint (that caused chaos due to road furniture) on stage 2, tomorrow’s will be a lot more technical. I’m sure the riders will be very pleased to know that it is a circuit finish so they’ll get a few chances to have a look at the closing kilometres.

Look at all those corners!

The final 3kms starts off with some sweeping bends on a main road so no doubt we’ll see the lead riders swerving across the road for control of the bunch. Things could unfortunately get messy because of this.

At 2kms to go they’ll take a fairly sharp left hand turn through the roundabout above. It’s narrow enough for only a couple of teams to be near the head of the race at this point.

From there, the road continues to sweep before they go straight over a roundabout with roughly 1.5km left. This will again stretch things out.

With around 1.2km left, the road narrows into one lane as they enter another roundabout and make a right hand turn. Being near the front here will be important as it will be very difficult to make up positions in what is left of the stage.

A long straight does allow one final chance for people to move up but at 400m to go the road narrows again and the riders will take one final right turn before the straight run at the finish.

Weather Watch

There is a potential for a shower or two in the afternoon tomorrow according to some forecasts which will make the finale even more treacherous.

Furthermore, it is set to be a windy day out in the saddle for the riders. With strong gusts coming from the West then there is the potential for echelons in the crosswinds as the riders head North for the majority of the stage. Looking on Google Maps, most of the road is protected by foliage or houses etc but there are a few areas without any protection. Will any teams try to split it in an attempt for one last GC shake-up before the time trial?

Sprint Contenders

Marcel Kittel.

The German will hope to double up after taking the win on stage 2 earlier in the week. His train is fairly short but it consists of some strong time trial riders who should be able to hold their own from around 5km out. However, they might lack some top end speed which could see Kittel out of position near the finish. This has happened a lot so far this season and I don’t think he’s fully clicked yet with Zabel. Tomorrow will be a big acid test for their partnership.

Peter Sagan.

Second on stage 2, second today, is this the old Sagan? He’s an excellent bike handler so the technical finish should suit him but will he be given the chance to get as much room as he did on stage 2. He was a bit of a bully then; throwing a few elbows to ward other riders off and it’s maybe something people would have raised more if he was Bouhanni. Without a lead out himself, he will have to go solo but that hasn’t stopped him. If it rains, his chances increase by a good 20%.

Fernando Gaviria.

The young Colombian lost his cool after the first sprint stage; stating how dangerous it was. It’s the first time we’ve really seen him like that and I think it was more out of frustration about being boxed in and not getting to go for it 100% than anything else. He also really missed Richeze who was held up in the crash with 7km to go. Gaviria was sitting on the right wheel (Sagan’s) but he just couldn’t follow through the same gaps as the World Champ. He’ll be fired up to go better tomorrow and I’m almost certain he will.

Those three are a class above compared to this field but considering the technical nature of the finale we might see a shock result.

Danny Van Poppel – An experimental short train that blows hot or cold he could well be the type of rider who profits from the technical finish and a well-timed dash into the final corner.

Luka Mezgec – With Ewan no longer here the Slovenian national champion will get the chance to sprint for Mitchelton. He’s a powerful rider who can handle difficult conditions I just think he lacks the top end speed at the moment.

Jasper Stuyven – The cat among the pigeons for tomorrow. A classics man who is in good form, he’ll get a chance at the bunch kick with Nizzolo out of the race. He won’t be concerned with bad conditions and in fact he’ll probably hope for echelons. He was third on the last road stage last year, can he manage another podium?

Modolo, Boasson Hagen, Mareczko, Colbrelli and Consonni will all be fighting for the top 10.

Prediction

Sticking to my Stage 2 prediction except QuickStep will get it right tomorrow because Richeze will be at the head of the race which means Gaviria will win.

Watch out for Stuyven though, I definitely think he could surprise.

Betting

2pts WIN Gaviria @ 5/2

1pt EW Stuyven @ 50/1

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will it end in a sprint or will we see some teams try to split the race in the wind? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Today’s Recap

Primož is a male given name, the South Slavic form of the Latin “Primus”, meaning “first” or “best”.

Taken straight from Wikipedia (I’m sure my old university tutors will be shaking their heads) but after today’s stage the above statement rings true. He didn’t win it in exactly the way I thought he would, but he was the brave one to risk an early attack.

No one was going to catch Roglic with the gap he had in the final 500m and he took a “comfortable” win in the end! Behind, an explosive Yates bolted from the pack but he could only manage second with Benoot continuing his impressive streak of form to take third.

The result moves Thomas into the overall lead with the Queen Stage to come tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for them the riders!

The Route

Another 200km+ day in the saddle which will not please some after today’s exploits.

This will be a brutal day in the saddle given the incredibly jagged profile we have; the road is either up or down for 100km in the middle of the day with very little respite. It will be a stressful day out! Furthermore, the number of climbing metres total 4704. Ouch!

Given Sky’s dominance at this race, it will be very hard (and unwise) to see anyone try anything from too far out. Unless of course other teams try to join forces. I would love to see that but I just can’t see it happening. Therefore, it will all come down to the final climb.

Using the profile above, the climb is 13.25km long at an average of 6.1% but as you can see, they descend for a little just as they come out of Sarnano. A more accurate representation is 11.75km at 7.14%; long and steep!

The main thing that makes the climb difficult is that it has many long sections above 8% with a few kilometres of “easier” gradients that keep the total percentage down. For example, the middle of the climb (from 5.5 to 9.5km on the profile) averages a leg breaking 8.8%. This is steep enough for big gaps to be made.

The riders will face a slight headwind on the climb which might deter some of the action but hopefully not as the road does twist and turn which means they aren’t ploughing straight into the wind all the time.

Interestingly it does ease near the top with the final 1.5km only averaging 4.5%. Will someone have made the race winning move by then or will we see a small group of GC contenders come to the line for a bunch sprint?

Contenders

There is a small chance, like always, that we might see the break hold on to take the stage win but it is unlikely to happen in my opinion; I think we have “control freak” Sky at this race.

Given the severity and length of the ascent, only the best climbers here will be able to compete for the win. Furthermore, the distance of the stage in general has to be considered as some really struggled today and it will be the same tomorrow.

Geraint Thomas.

The current leader of the race has the luxury of the strongest team and he should have a good number of riders left with him at the foot of the climb. Even if we see some crazy things early on, then Sky should have at least 3, if not 4 riders with Thomas. They’ll be able to set tempo and control affairs on the footslopes of the climb but he might have to do it himself if we get attacks on the steeper sections. Thomas was closest to Quintana on Terminillo last year and an equally good performance here could see him fighting for the win. He packs a good sprint which could be key.

Chris Froome.

Will we see him on the attack? Sitting only 3 seconds down on Thomas, he might be given the license to go on the move on the final climb, forcing others to chase and allowing Thomas to get an “easy” ride behind. He’s had an ok start to his season but he does seem a bit fatigued and laboured – although that is his normal style on the bike anyway! Like anytime he races outside the Tour, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win or come 20th.

Mikel Landa.

The Movistar man won’t fear the steep gradients and long climb, in fact he will relish it. He started off his season in surprisingly good form, considering he normally takes a few races to get going. The Sky boys will be scared of Landa, knowing what he can do. Will it be Landani to take the win?

Rigoberto Uran.

A rider who goes well in the classics but as we saw at the Tour last year, can climb with the very best too. He was going well back in his home country of Colombia but I’m intrigued to see if that form has continued back in Europe. A 5th place on today’s stage suggests he’s going fairly well. Uran is a big danger for the stage win compared to some of the other GC guys because he packs arguably the fastest sprint out of the lot.

Adam Yates.

Strong on today’s final climb, he left it just too late to catch Roglic but it was an impressive performance nonetheless. He’s not afraid to attack and we all know he’s very competent on the steeper stuff. Quite far down on GC (almost a minute) will he be able to get a gap and hold it?

Prediction

None of the above win though as we’ll see Romain Bardet on the top step tomorrow.

I have been very impressed with the Ag2R man’s start to the season; he’s finished in the top 10 of the four one-day races he has completed before Tirreno. That included a gutsy performance in Strade which resulted in a second place but also a strong solo win in the Classic de l’Ardeche. He’s been a frontrunner in Liege before with a 6th place last year and he also won the Peyragudes of the Tour; two examples that he won’t be afraid of the distance. Given his god-awful ability on a time trial bike, he might just be given the leeway to slip away in the closing kilometres.

Betting

1pt WIN Bardet @ 14/1

1pt WIN Uran @ 14/1

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see the expected GC showdown or will the break spring a surprise? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Today’s Recap

We got the expected bunch sprint at the end of the day, but the bunch was massively reduced due to a crash at 6.5km to go. As a result, roughly 40-50 guys missed out in the gallop but it was very messy nonetheless with elbows flying all over the place, although they were mainly extending from Sagan.

Zabel delivered Kittel perfectly and the German finally took his first win of the season which also happened to be his first on Italian soil!

Sagan elbowed his way to second with Nizzolo following home in a respectable third place.

It will be difficult to see any of the battling out for the stage tomorrow, although the current World Champ might have different ideas.

The Route

A rolling day in the saddle with the predominant focus being the final climb.

There are a few early GPMs to reward the breakaway with some points in the King of the Mountain competition but they are too infrequent to make any serious difference in the peloton.

The riders will attack the final ascent twice in the closing 14kms. Short at only 2.5km, the bulk of the climb comes in the final 1.5km although it ramps up in steps. Those final 1.5km average 11.5% but there are plenty of gradients higher, with it peaking out at 20% almost at the summit.

The first ascent crests with just under 12km to go and it could provide a launchpad for a few brave attackers.

With 4km of descent that will work to the advantage of any attackers, the chasers will need to get organised quickly as there are only 5km of flat before the road starts to rise up again.

It could be a very tactical finish!

How will the race pan out?

It really depends on the attitude of Sky.

They have the GC firepower here and they could easily dominate and control the proceedings if they so wish. However, we’ve seen so far in 2018 that they are not afraid to mix things up a bit by going on the attack; Kwiatkowski’s win on the final day of the Algarve is testament to that. We could easily see something similar with Froome/Thomas/Kwiatkowski going on the attack and forcing others to chase.

Another factor to consider is the length of the stage. At a very tiresome 234km it is perfect for those who are wanting to get some practice in before the classics that are coming up. The distance also brings the rainbow jersey into play as he seems to be on a different level compared to most once we hit 220km+. Also it is important to remember he won the really tough and rolling stage into Fermo last year.

Of course it won’t just be Sky who try to make the race as we have numerous strong riders quite far down on the overall either due to a poor TTT or unfortunately being held up after today’s crash.

Ultimately, I think we’ll see an aggressive race with a splinter group forming ahead of the peloton somewhere in the closing 20kms and they will fight out for stage glory in the end. For that group to succeed then it will definitely need representation from Sky but also a few of the other GC teams too, not all though.

So I’m just going to throw a few names into the hat, rather than listing off the 20 odd riders who might have a chance if things go their way.

Contenders or Pretenders?

Adam Yates.

Desperately unlucky to have lost time in the crash today, he’ll be out tomorrow to try to retake some of those losses. He’s had a bit of racing under his belt already, taking an impressive second place to Valverde on the very steep finish to Cocentaina in Valenciana earlier on in the year. An aggressive rider he should be in the shake up tomorrow.

Michal Kwiatkowski.

Probably Sky’s best card to play tomorrow, he’s not afraid of the distance nor the punchy short climbs. In 2018 he’s already managed to win two stages and the GC in Algarve and with MSR just around the corner, he’ll want a good hit out this week after a disappointing Strade Bianche by his standards. As mentioned above, any move that goes will need a Sky rider to succeed. I think anyone up the road will be worried if Kwiatkowski joins them, he’s such a classy bike rider.

Primoz Roglic.

Disappointed to have lost as much time in the TTT, the Jumbo rider’s chances of a good overall certainly look low after being held up by the crash today and losing 1’42. This is apparently a race that he was targeting and he is normally a rider that goes well in their targeted events so there is still hope for him to pick up a good result somewhere this week. We’ve seen in the past that he is not afraid to attack and given how far back he is now, that might just grant him some extra freedom. A solid 4th place on the steep Valenciana stage will be a confidence booster in regards to a finish like this.

Fabio Felline.

It really is hard to tell when Felline is going well or not as he often pulls great performances out of the bag when least expecting it. He’s another who lost time today although I’m not sure if he would ever be competing for the overall title but a top 10 could have been a possibility. A brutally strong rider when he needs to be, the short 1.5km steep climb should suit his characteristics well, it is just a case if he has the motivation and form at the moment.

Simon Clarke.

I can hear Carlton Kirby rejoicing from here as his yearly outside candidate for MSR makes my list. The Australian has had a good start to the season with strong showings in Andalucia and Strade. On the short cobbled finish in Andalucia he finished in an impressive 9th place on the stage, only a few seconds behind much more renowned climbers like Soler and Kruijswijk. A punchy rider on his day I could see him attacking with Uran sitting behind and he might just steal something. No doubt you will hear it from Kirby if he does!

Prediction

It’s a tough one this as we could see many permutations in the final 30kms. However, I think we’ll see a really tough pace up the first ascent of the climb that will greatly reduce the peloton.

There will be a lot of looking around and Primoz Roglic will seize his moment and attack. Far enough behind on GC at the moment, no one will take up the mantle to chase and as we’ve seen in the past; giving him more than 20 seconds usually means it is game over in a situation like this.

Betting

1pt EW Roglic @ 22/1

0.5pt EW Clarke @ 80/1

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see any GC shake-up? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

GC Overview

A race that will be shaped by the amount of miles against the clock, we have some of the very best GC time trial riders in the world on the start list so we should be in for an exciting week.

Last year saw Quintana take the GC win after a dominant performance on the climb of Terminillo and solid performances in the two days against the clock. Interestingly though, Thomas would have won the race were it not for the wheels coming off his title bid, quite literally on the opening day when Team Sky suffered numerous mechanicals in the TTT.

Quintana isn’t here to defend his title but Movistar do send Landa, however, he’ll probably lose too much time in the TTs to be in with a crack at the title. Although there is only one mountain top finish, there are a couple of stages where there are several “muros” so the GC riders will need to be attentive. Nonetheless, the winner of the race will need to have two good performances against the clock and hold on to the coat tails of the better climbers on the mountain top finish.

Dennis in theory should be in a great position given the two efforts against the clock but he performed poorly on Jebel Hafeet, finishing 1’43 down on the winner. That being said, he did say he felt slightly under the weather and he wasn’t exactly in bad company, finishing alongside Ion Izagirre. The extra TT kms here do give him more of a chance but I think it’ll be hard.

Dumoulin hit the headlines for his bike throwing antics in Abu Dhabi after suffering a few mechanicals in key moments there. He seemed a little off the pace though but given that he’s targeting the Giro again this year, he will want to go well in Tirreno. The route looks great for him, it all just depends on where he’s at fitness wise. He also has a very strong team-mate in the shape of Kelderman who could easily win this race himself. It will be interesting to see how Sunweb play it but having two options here is never going to be a bad thing.

Team Sky have a few options on paper but I imagine it will be Froome and Thomas leading the team. Like Dumoulin, the former is targeting the Giro so he will want to go well here. However, will the whole debacle surrounding the salbutamol case still be weighing on him? Like I said before Andalucia, I don’t think he should be racing but he’s here so he has a good a chance as anyone. Meanwhile his team-mate arrives in some sparkling form after looking very comfortable in Algarve. He should have won this race last year and he’ll be there or thereabouts again this year.

Roglic appears to be the only other guy with the TT credentials to challenge. Having only one mountain top finish will help his chances but I just can’t see him being better than the Sunweb and Sky duos. Although, he could possibly benefitting from them marking each other on the climbs. Jumbo need a big performance on the opening day and after that, he might just run them close.

However, I think Thomas will take the GC win in the end.

He looked very strong in the Algarve and having an incredibly strong team around him will help a lot.

With that out of the road, let’s have a look at what the riders will contend with on the opening day.

The Route

The race once again starts with the now seemingly traditional TTT in Lido di Camaiore.

A pan-flat out and back course with only 4 turns of note throughout the whole 21.5km. This is one for the powerful TTT squads.

There’s not really much else to say about the route, so moving on!

Weather Watch

It is meant to rain overnight with the showers continuing into the morning. Although depending what source you consult for the forecast, then some suggest that it might keep raining all afternoon with some potential thunderstorms.

On top of the potentially damp or wet roads, the riders will have to content with a strong wind that is coming off the coast line. They’ll be thankful to know it shouldn’t be a headwind (apart from at the very top of the course for a few hundred metres) but it will certainly cause some issues with the wind blowing from the side. There is a good amount of cover from the wind though thanks to buildings, bushes and trees etc, but it might cause for a few nervous moments; especially during changeovers at the front of the train.

Contenders

BMC.

It’s a TTT and they have Dennis with them so they are undoubtedly favourites. The difference he makes is incredible and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do a few kilometre turns at crucial points. The pan-flat course suits their squad perfectly and it would be surprising to not see them on top of the podium come the end of the day. They’ve won this TTT in the past two seasons, can they make it three in a row tomorrow?

Quick Step.

The team who have come closest to stopping the BMC dominance here, having finished second to them on both occasions. They bring a strong team but it is not as good as it has been in the past so I think they’ll fall short again.

Team Sky.

They’ve started the season well in time trials and I expect that to continue here in the team event. Their squad is stacked and can definitely rival BMC and in fact, I think it might just be stronger. One important thing to consider is that Sky seem to go well in poor conditions, take the opening TT at the Tour last year for example, and if we get some rain tomorrow that increases their chances.

Team Sunweb.

The TTT World Champs shocked many last year by winning that title but they will arrive here wanting to show that it was not just a one-off. With a very solid outfit I would expect them to run those at the top of the order very close; is it classed as an upset if they win?

Lotto NL Jumbo.

An ever improving team in the discipline, they bring a strong squad of rouleurs in the hope of giving Roglic as good a tilt at the GC as possible. They are missing a few of their conventional TT stars but still have a good chance of a result. The win is unlikely, but a top 5 should be their aim.

Trek Segafredo.

It seems to be a while since I’ve mentioned Trek in the contenders section of a TTT preview but they have brought a surprisingly good squad to the event. Mullen and Brandle are obviously very good TT riders in their own right but Felline, Stuyven and Pedersen can all hold their own on the short power events. They could be dark horses.

Prediction

BMC v Sky v Sunweb.

Hmmmm, I’m really torn on this one and keep switching allegiances!

I’ll go with Sky.

Their squad has the most strength in-depth out of the start list in terms of the discipline and they seem to have the best equipment in slightly testing conditions. That will give them the edge tomorrow.

Betting

Am I backing them for the win on the day with money? Hell no! Instead it will be a little H2H 4-fold to keep me interested.

1pt on at 8.04/1

Would take it at 6/1 lowest.

No GC punts, would go for Thomas but his odds are too short.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? It could be quite a close TTT. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.