A dominant performance in Bergen saw Dumoulin crush the opposition to take his first World title, beating Roglic by 57 seconds and Froome by 1’21.
With the latter two riders not here to compete this year, Dumoulin will have to look further down the order for his nearest challengers and there are plenty waiting for him to make a mistake. First though, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.
It really is a course that can be split into two.
The opening 30km is almost pure flat, although there are a few rocks and rolls along the way. It will be interesting to see how the riders approach this section as you will want to keep something back for the climb but then again, you don’t want to start the final 20kms with an almost insurmountable gap to claw back.
The 7.6% average for 4.3km makes the climb seem a bit easier than it is because the opening 3.6km actually average 8.9%. This is a tough climb and riders can gain/lose serious time here depending on their abilities but also their pacing throughout the effort.
Once over the top of the climb and through the second time check, the riders will face a short plateau before a roughly 6km descent, before tackling the same rolling finish to the day that we have seen in the previous days action.
How much time will the climbers take on the, erm, climb?
Catchy sub-title that, isn’t it?
The ascent of the Gnadenwald climb (sounds like a Harry Potter character) is tough and cannot be underestimated. In fact, it is not much easier than the much talked about “Hell” climb in the road race. Some serious time can be gained here by those who go up hills well and likewise, a lot can be shifted by the heavier riders.
I have no idea what power outputs the guys will be doing tomorrow but I guess we might see something like 5.5w/kg on the climb – complete guess. Given what we have seen in Grand Tours and such though, we could expect Dumoulin to take possibly 25 seconds out of Dennis on the ascent, maybe more maybe less, all depends on the legs on the day. However it is important to remember that it is just one climb in one day of racing so there is no accumulated ascending or fatigue to think of.
Of course though, the margin to the even heavier riders such as Tony Martin for example will be even more, possibly edging towards 45 seconds, even more.
The Distance Factor
It is important to consider the length of the TT though as it is not often throughout the year that riders will have to compete over such a long course. Some national championships take place over a similar distance but they are few and far between.
2013, 2014 and 2015 were the most recent WC to feature a course of a similar length but given 2013 was pan flat and 5 years ago, I think it is only fair to look at 2014 and 2015 in a little more detail.
2014 saw a rolling 47km TT around Ponferrada with Wiggins taking home the crown. The Brit has obviously retired and isn’t in Innsbruck but the following 4 home are all competitors here though; Martin (+26s), Dumoulin (+40s), Kiryienka (+47s) and Dennis (+57s). Also in the top 10 that day were Oliveira and Castroviejo but they both finished more than a minute down.
In 2015 the riders faced another rolling but not as difficult 53.5km course around Richmond. Kiryienka won in that day and with the other podium finishers having retired from the sport, Castroviejo is the only current rider to have finished within a minute, coming home in 4th at 29 seconds down. Dumoulin (1’01), Dennis (1’07) and Martin (1’16) followed home in positions 5 through 7.
Dennis and Dumoulin are the favourites but as we have seen in previous years, the distance can sometimes through up some surprises. If you’re on a bad day, you have less room to hide!
The infamous Rule of Thumb
Despite the riders competing for their national teams, they will still be riding trade team bikes so the RoT has to come into play. You should know the drill by now; Sunweb, Sky, BMC and Jumbo riders often go best in the TTs, but after their performances in the Vuelta and the recent TTT, Quick Step have now joined the list.
It is hard not to see maybe 7 or 8 of the top 10 come from those teams but there are always exceptions to the rules, especially over the longer distances.
Dennis vs Dumoulin
The battle we’ve all been waiting for.
Dumoulin arrives here as defending champion after blitzing the competition last year. This season he has more than proved his mettle in the Grand Tours by taking back to back podiums at the Giro then Tour, although I am sure he would have liked it to have been more. The tough climb should be a big advantage for him but it is then a case of him managing to not lose too much time on the flatter section to Dennis. Being the best all-round TT rider we have here, this is his to lose on paper. Interestingly, he didn’t compete at his nation championships this year. A sign that he was confident enough of taking the WC jersey again?
Dennis often seems to have bad luck at these championships, having had a crash and a mechanical issue last year, yet still managing to finish in the top 10. The Aussie has competed in 9 TTs this season (including one prologue), having won 6 of them. More importantly though, he was won the two longer TTs that he has competed in at a Grand Tour this season – a big mental breakthrough for him after his bad luck in longer events before. That Giro win was ahead of Dumoulin while both were competing for GC, which to me is important, as it shows that he is able to produce a big performance after depleting his body over a few weeks. Then he showed the world at the Vuelta just what he can do in a TT after resting up with one of the most incredible TT performances I have seen over the past few years.
Can anyone beat them?
A dangerous question given what we’ve seen over the past few days of racing where sometimes the favourites disappoint, but I would be very surprised if anyone did.
Martin – Surprised everyone at the Giro by coming second in the longer TT before going on to win his national championships comfortably. He has the pedigree in this type of event but the climb isn’t ideal for him – he is not the Tony Martin of 2012.
Kiryienka – Another former World Champion who does seem to go better when the race gets longer, he has been very disappointing against the clock this year. Have his abilities finally started to wane?
Schachmann – Not for me. He’s done ok in longer TTs before and is clearly in good form but I think this is too much for him. I think the Euro result was a bit of a one-off and thanks to some changing conditions. Maybe in a few years.
Jungels – Looked super strong in the TTT and in both this season’s Tour and last year’s Giro he has performed commendably in the individual efforts against the clock. He’ll be the closest Quick Step rider in my opinion.
Castroviejo – If you’ve followed the blog for a little while you will know by now just how much I love his position on a TT bike. The Spaniard was arguably the MVP domestique for Sky at the Tour and he followed that up by doing the Vuelta. Is he fatigued? If not, he is a real danger for a medal.
Kwiatkowski – Like his team-mate above, he has done both the Tour and Vuelta. He started off in GC contention for the latter before deciding to try to chase a stage win, unucssesfully. This will be his first time competing in the discipline at the Worlds since 2013 and I’m intrigued to see how he does.
Oliveira – A consistent nearly man, he was strong in the Vuelta and followed that up here by looking the best in the Movistar line up for the team event. He’s one to watch but probably only for another top 6.
Kung – Has struggled of late so it is a no for me.
Campenaerts – In theory could go well but he has talked down his chances and he seems to be tired too.
Two rank outsiders I am intrigued to see how they go are the BMC pair of Bevin and Van Garderen. Both have delivered good efforts against the clock this season but only on the sparing occasion. The former was strong in the Tour of Britain and I’m intrigued to see how he copes with distance. Meanwhile, TVG has had a pretty dull season but a win in California and third in Suisse over 34km courses show he can last the distance, at times.
I’m probably bucking the trend here because it doesn’t really make much sense given how Dumoulin should cope with the climb much better, but I’m going to go with Dennis to take the title.
That second Vuelta stage win was poetry in motion. To take almost a minute out of the rest of the field on what was a tough and rolling course just highlights how good his form is – it really was sensational. After the disappointment of the team even on Sunday, he said he was really looking forward to tomorrow and was confident of delivering a good result. I have called for your aid Rohan, will you answer?
Dumoulin to come home second with Jungels confirming his great form at the moment and take third.
Do I want to back him heavily though?
You can get almost 2/1 on the BF exchange which I’m going to have a little nibble at but I’m not going to recommend it. Instead, I’ll make Jungels my main play as a solid EW bet.
1pt EW Jungels @ 25/1
Then just for the fun of it, some tiny punts on Bevin and TVG
0.125pt EW on them both – Bevin @ 150/1, TVG @ 200/1
I do like the look of the Jungels over Schachmann H2H though.
5pts on at 5/4 with WillHill
Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Can Dennis stop Dumoulin? Can anyone get close to those two? Anyway,
Those were My Two Spokes Worth.