Tag: valence

Tour de France 2018 Stage 13 Preview: Bourg d’Oisans ->Valence

Today’s Recap

I don’t think words can really do today’s action justice: it had a bit of everything!

We had a GC contender (Kruijswijk) go on a crazy long-range attack and start the final climb with over a 4 minute buffer to the peloton. Riders dropping out the back like flies as new kid on the block and future Grand Tour winner Bernal set a ferocious tempo that only a select handful of riders could live with, dropping his compatriot Quintana. Bardet was on a coiled spring as he constantly attacked. Nibali looked good but was involved in a fall which at the time of writing looked to be caused by a police motorbike that couldn’t see properly through the smoke. Dumoulin and Froome exchanged digs, before Bardet went again. The pace then slowed and that allowed Landa back to the group which he then almost immediately counter attacked.

That attack then lead out Thomas perfectly who managed to take back to back stage wins, making him the first rider in Yellow to win on Alpe d’Huez since Armstrong.

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Dumoulin came home next with Bardet nabbing a few bonus seconds in third. Froome trailed home in 4th with Landa not too far behind. Nibali and Roglic regained some ground to only come home 13 seconds back and it looks like Nibali will get the same time as the GC group after his crash, Roglic was already distanced a little by that point. Although this isn’t confirmed at the time of writing.

It was some great racing but the day was almost ruined by some over zealous fans. Don’t be an idiot.

Anyway, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

After three big days in the mountains I’m sure plenty of the riders will be happy to see tomorrow’s profile.

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Only two categorised climbs will be music to the ears of those who have struggled and with a descent after 5kms of racing, it will probably be a fast start to the day. The two climbs won’t play any part in the outcome of the stage aside from the first one might see the formation of the break but that all depends on the attitudes of the riders, but I’ll get to that later.

There are a couple of uncategorised climbs later in the day one of which is arguably tougher than the Cat-4, with it coming in at roughly 3.8% for 5kms. It peaks with 36km to go though and starts a series of kickers but again nothing too serious. The riders then descend until roughly 10km to go where the road flattens out a bit.

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Those final 10km are mainly easy but there is a bit of an elongated bowl to the finish.

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There are a few tight turns near the finish, namely a right hand turn with just under 2.5km to go. Arguably the most important thing to note though is an 800m drag at 2.6% which finishes at 550m to go. This could sap the finishing sprint of some and might tempt others to go for a late attack.

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With around 450m to go the riders will face a roundabout but given it is on a wide road it shouldn’t cause too many issues. No doubt though it will stretch things out a little.

That is of course if we see a sprint…

How will the stage pan out?

I already had tomorrow penciled in as a surprise breakaway stage due to the tough three days we have had and some of the riders fancying a “rest day”. However, with the sprinters falling like flies today (Greipel, Groenewegen and Gaviria all abandoned), then it makes it very much less of a surprise. We could of course see a stage where almost everyone wants a rest and only 4 guys get up the road and in turn the sprint teams then decide they actually want to control things.

Which fast men do we have left?

Sagan, Démare, Kristoff, Colbrelli, Degenkolb, Laporte, Boudat and Theuns. Although I am stretching it a bit with the last three as they are either not as good as the others or more than likely on team duties.

So avoiding any elaborate argument here then and straight into everyone’s favourite game, again.

TheBreakawayLottery

Break Candidates

Pffft, pull a name out of the hat and hope you get lucky. We might even see Sagan go on the attack for some fun.

All of the riders I’m going to highlight fit a similar mould; strong on the flat but solid on the short climbs and have the ability to arrive at the finish solo.

Tobias Ludvigsson.

My yearly Big T bet day is upon us. It is very unlikely that FDJ will work all day for Démare so the best plan of action is to try to send someone up the road. Ludvigsson has slowly started to find his legs again after missing the first few months of the season due to injury. He’s a good domestique who on his day gets a chance to shine in the break. Hopefully everyone has fond memories of him pulling a few whips while on the attack in the Vuelta last year, a day that I was on him at 400/1 but Cannondale decided to ruin the break’s fun because they missed the move. Let’s see if Ludvigsson has the same energy tomorrow!

Maciej Bodnar.

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Cruelly caught within the final 250m of stage 11 last year, he then got his revenge later on in the race by winning the individual time trial. Bodnar is one of Sagan’s loyal work horses and the World Champion might reward him with his own opportunities tomorrow. Bodnar was flying in the Polish national championships where he ultimately lost the sprint to Kwiatkowski. A brute of a rider, you don’t want to give him too much leeway near the end of the day.

Michael Valgren.

A faller earlier in the race, Valgren impressed from the break the other day but tomorrow the terrain is suited to him a lot more. It depends on how Astana decide to use their resources but the Dane looks their best option. We’ve seen already this year just how strong he can be with his two superb wins in Omloop and Amstel. Given his power, he might even fancy his chances from a small breakaway sprint.

Jack Bauer

With Yates out of the GC picture Mitchelton will need to change their game plan over the remaining stages, it’s a shame they didn’t have a sprinter with them to chase some stages…Anyway, Bauer is a good mix of solid climber but very strong rouleur who can go well on a course like tomorrow. Another rider who has had his heartbroken before at the Tour when he was caught within the final 100m by a charging peloton back on stage 15 of the 2014 race. That was a similar profile to what we have tomorrow, can he find that extra 100m of energy?

Prediction

Break to stay away and Valgren to win. He looks in great shape at the moment!

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Betting

0.5pt WIN on them all

Valgren @ 250/1

Ludvigsson @ 

Bodnar @ 300/1

Bauer @ 250/1

Big T not priced so will go with Dillier @ 400/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

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Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Valence › Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert

Today’s Recap

A bloke went faster than some other blokes around the town of Valence.

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Kwiatkowski delivered a stunning ride to beat Van Emden by a second, after the Dutchman had spent most of the early afternoon in the hot seat. Team Sky returned to their dominant TT performances of the Spring with Moscon coming home in third.

They could have quite possibly had 3 guys in the first 4 as Thomas crashed with 3.3km to go and ultimately finished 21 seconds down on his team-mate. Going from the rolling clock he was just getting back onto his bike at around the 20 second mark after his fall so considering all the lost momentum then he certainly would have been competing for the win. I do find it weird though that he crashed on a completely dry course on a rather innocuous corner; he’s making a bad habit of that!

As for the blog pick, Bevin finished in 5th which was respectable but just not good enough for the win. Boom was a disappointing after being only 2 seconds down at the split but he faded quite badly in the second half.

Jungles obviously lost by a second to Brandle which means I’m continuing off from where I left off at the Giro (not counting the last day winning hiccup with Bennett). Oh well, on to tomorrow and what looks like an interesting and unpredictable stage!

The Route

A fairly rolling day out in the saddle with some interestingly positioned climbs in the finale.

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The riders will be climbing from the gun, facing the toughest ascent of the day, the Col de Leyrisse. At an average of 4.5% for 8.5km then it isn’t Alpine by any means, but it will certainly have a few guys worried, especially if they’ve been watching the Giro. A short descent follows before the road drags up again at roughly 3% for another 4km.

We then have a longer descent which is followed by a 2-for-1 categorised climb deal: not sure it’s an offer I’d like to see. For the pros though the ~4.8% average for 11km shouldn’t be too much of an issue and we’ll no doubt see a nice controlled tempo.

After that the road rolls with a few small rises but it is mainly flat, before we get into the final 40km which features 3 categorised climbs, albeit just Cat-4s. More importantly though, they will complete a couple of laps of a circuit so the riders will be familiar with the parcours the second time round.

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There are two main rises in the circuit, the first is a fairly steady 1.9km at 3.4% before the slightly tougher second climb that averages 4.3% for 1.5km, with a few steeper pitches thrown in early on. Neither are very difficult and we won’t see any GC action but they do offer the perfect opportunity for a late attack from a puncheur.

The start of the descent is a little technical but for the majority of it the riders will have to pedal it in the big ring.

The final few hundred metres are uphill so any sprint will have to be timed perfectly.

How will the stage pan out?

It’s one of those days where anything could happen: breakaway, late attack or reduced sprint are all possible outcomes and equally as likely. Well saying that, with Sky now in the race lead I wonder if we will see a typically controlled stage from them and closing everything down to protect that yellow jersey? Consequently, I think the likelihood of a morning breakaway is much reduced but the chances of a late attack sticking are still quite high.

I’ll go 10% (Breakaway), 35 % (Late attack), 55% (Reduced sprint).

Sprinters

The race isn’t blessed with a great selection of sprinters but to be fair, who can blame them – there are only a couple of days that *might* end in a bunch kick and the rest are all GC days. Looking at ProCyclingStats, these are the top 15 sprinters here…

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Definitely not a stacked field when Nibali is the 8th guy on the list!

Out of them all, I would only class Ackermann, Jakobsen and Bauhaus as pure sprinters, while Impey, EBH and Coquard are “tough sprinters” then the rest are puncheurs or lead-out men, and Nibali.

I think the climbs will see the chances of the pure sprinters disappear tomorrow so it will be over to the tough sprinters and the puncheurs to battle it out on the run in to the line.

There are two riders that I like for tomorrow’s stage and one of them is currently in yellow.

Michal Kwiatkowski.

This type of parcours and finish is perfect for the Pole as he possesses a fast enough kick to compete with most, especially with the riders we have here. I expect Sky to control the race and hope to set him up for the sprint and gain some bonus seconds as every little bit of time here and there will be very helpful for the weekend. His performance today shows that he is in good form and the rise up to the line definitely favours him.

Jay McCarthy.

One of my favourite riders in the peloton, the Aussie is really developing into a great rider and tomorrow’s finish looks like a carbon copy of the uphill drag he won in Itzulia. This is his first race back after a period of rest and training after the Ardennes classics but a 34th place today was a pretty good result by his standards so I think he’ll be going well.

Late Attackers

As for late attackers, pick a name out of a hat as to who might give it a go. We’ll probably see something from De Gendt, Valgren and Terpstra. The latter of whom I think might actually have a chance as he delivered a good time today and was lively in the recent Hammer series.

Prediction

Sky are in Yellow so everything is controlled and Kwiatkowski doubles up, simple!

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Betting

1pt EW Kwiatkowski @ 16/1

1pt EW McCarthy @ 16/1

0.5pt WIN Terpstra @ 125/1

(All with Bet365)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? It should be a good finish to the stage. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Prologue Preview: Valence -> Valence

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Prologue Preview: Valence -> Valence

The Route

A pretty much pan-flat 6.6km hit out around Valence. As with all TTs I’ve made the route on Strava/Veloviewer and that’s the profile I’ll be using here as you can’t really make out much in the official one! You can of course access the Veloviewer profile through this link.

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The route is like a very stretched out basin, with the riders descending for the first part before they regain the altitude in the latter half, well, over a few hundred metre segment. That is the most challenging part of the route, the 660m section near the end of the day which averages a very modest 3.3%. Not really that tough then is it? But of course, you want to have something left to power through it, especially when the road rises after a turn so their speed will be knocked down ever so slightly.

You can actually watch a streetview recce of the whole route in the following video. I’d recommend 0.5x speed to get a better understanding.

 

I would ignore the end of the video ever so slightly though as I’m fairly certain the riders will be on the road, not the cobbled pavement that is parallel to it.

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One thing to note from it though is that the majority of the roads, although sweeping, will be able to be taken at full speed. However, there is a sequence of a nasty and tight turns around the 2km mark which I’m certain the riders will be trying to perfect their lines through when they have a practice run in the morning as a good amount of time/speed can be gained or lost there.

With all that said though, the course looks as if it should suit the power riders in the peloton.

Contenders

Jos Van Emden.

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The Jumbo rider starts as the bookmakers favourite and in this field it is understandable why, he always seems to go very well in these short efforts against the clock. One of the best in the world at a <10km TT, without Dennis here then he is the justifiable favourite. The one question mark that lingers over his head is: how much did the Giro take out of him? We’ve seen “Tour legs” be a thing in the past where riders who go well at the Tour notoriously go well in San Sebastian not long after. Can Van Emden reap the benefits?

Lars Boom.

Van Emden isn’t the only Jumbo rider who could post a good time, with “puncheur” Boom capable of delivering a very good effort when needed. He seems to be slowly getting back to good form after his heart operation in the off-season, stating that good sensations are returning. In Romandie he was very close to the top of the order at the intermediate split before a mechanical ruined his chance of a good result in that prologue, I expect more from him here.

Tom Bohli.

So close to a win in that Romandie prologue, the flat course should suit the young BMC rider even more. A strong rider who seems to produce his best results in short TTs, I would not be surprised to see him in the top 5 tomorrow, or even fighting for the win.

Patrick Bevin.

The second BMC rider to make the list, he has really upped his game this year since the change of team, with 8/14/2/2 being his results against the clock this season. Tomorrow’s power course should be up his street and like Bohli, I would be surprised not to see him near the top of the order. It was at the prologue in Paris Nice a couple of years ago that he broke onto the scene, can he go better than his results so far and take a WT win?

Victor Campenaerts.

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He was bitterly disappointed in the Giro to have missed out on the Pink Jersey on the opening day but his performance in the second TT was pretty poor and he duly abandoned the race the day after. There is no doubt that Campenaerts is a very talented rider but I mentioned it in the Giro TT preview: he just doesn’t seem to win enough.

Geraint Thomas.

Flying at the start of the year, he was then sub-par in Romandie so who knows where his form will be at the moment. Apparently he is approaching the Tour as if he is going to be leader but I can’t really see that being the case, so he might arrive at this race a bit sharper than others, wanting to take advantage of their form. Sky were flying as a team in TTs this year up until the Giro which was odd. Thomas could pull any result out of the bag here. Likewise, the same can be said for Kwiatkowski and Castroviejo, even Van Baarle. We could see 4 of them in the top 10 again, or we could get the Giro vintage of Sky in TTs.

Mathias Brandle. 

Crashing out while practicing the Romandie prologue was not ideal for the Trek rider as it meant he missed out of competing at the Giro. The Dauphiné will be his first race back after that collarbone injury so it will be interesting to see where his form is at. The short power course is good for him (like many) but I think he himself will fall short due to lack of form.

Others to look out for who might cause a surprise include Gougeard, Jungels and De Gendt.

Prediction

The form TT team will take a win with the form TT rider who has been knocking at the door this season, Patrick Bevin to step up to the big time leagues here!

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The podium will then be filled with Jumbo riders.

GC Preview in 50 Words

TTT to set the scene. Four mountain top finishes to create some gaps. Short stages to entice the action, maybe too many, damp squib? GC battle hopefully should go down to final day. Numbers will be key. Sky dominant team – Thomas to win and prove himself before the Grand Boucle.

Betting

1pt EW Bevin @ 12/1

1pt EW Boom @ 20/1

Both with Bet365.

I also think Brandle might be a bit undercooked so willing to take him on in a H2H with Jungels.

4pts Jungels to beat Brandle @ 11/8 (Ladbrokes)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think is going to win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.