Tag: stage 3

Eneco Tour Stage 3 Preview: Blankenberge -> Ardooie

Today’s Recap

Sigh…

I had a lot of faith in Dennis writing this preview yesterday, but didn’t put any money down on him due to the combination of everyone else seemingly backing Dumoulin and the odds not being that great. The Aussie went on to prove everyone else wrong (I told you Rohan would answer) and took a superb win, knocking 7 seconds off of Dumoulin’s time in 2014! So I guess that’s some kind of blog win, right?

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Also, when I suggested we might get a surprise or two today, I didn’t expect that to be Dumoulin and Martin being 20 seconds back and not finishing in the top 10! Few interesting names in that top 10, showing how varied a short, powerful TT can be at times.

Anyway, moving on to tomorrow’s stage and a finish we’ve had several times before.

The Route

Another fairly flat day (around 600m of climbing) that’s sure to end as a bunch sprint. This is all about the finale!

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The finish itself is a technical one, that causes lead-outs to be disrupted. As we saw on stage 1, a simple run in can cause issues, so you can imagine what might happen here!

That left hand-turn around 1.2km to go is crucial for the riders. If their train can take that first, then they have a very good chance. As long as they have at least two riders in front of them, three would be ideal.

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In the video above, you can see the closing kms. Ignore the ticker in the top left of the screen, it’s wrong (classic)! You can see the effect that the sharp left followed by the chicane has on the peloton. It gets very strung out. If a team has a few riders left here, they can keep the hurt on. The video above shows what happens if there is a slowing of the pace once the lead-out men disappear in the final 500m!

The Sprint Contenders

As highlighted on stage 1, there are a load of sprinters here so I won’t be going over them individually and in-depth. Instead, I’ll be focussing on the type of sprint we have and who might do well because of it.

Due to the finish being technical, you need to be fearless and have a good lead-out who can dictate the final 2kms. Obviously, this was in issue for every team on stage 1, but I think it will be different tomorrow and some trains will properly form.

Considering the above two conditions, the first name that sprints to mind is Nacer Bouhanni. The Frenchman was the fastest finisher on Monday but was blocked and squeezed out a bit. His train didn’t leave the station so to say and never really got going on St1. I can’t imagine Nacer will have taken that too well, and they’re sure to deliver a better performance tomorrow.

Groenewegen also has to be considered in a finish like this. He proved on stage 1 that he can pick the right wheel and can deliver the result at the end of it. A very fast rider, full of confidence, he’ll fancy his chances of doubling up.

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Boonen won this stage last year, but Etixx will be hoping that Kittel can get the required space to flex his muscles tomorrow. His 9th place today on the TT highlights that he has indeed recovered from his sickness bug. Technical finishes aren’t his speciality but he’s by no means bad at them and he’ll accept nothing less than a win.

Sagan will look to get involved too and his incredibly bike handling skills and great tactical nous should see him on the right wheel coming out of the chicane. The way he’s riding, I would not be surprised to see him make the podium again and even take the win.

A rider I like for this stage is Nizzolo. He’s finished on the podium twice so knows the closing kilometres well, plus his lead-out train looks very good. If they can get 3 riders in front of him going into the first left-hander, he should be delivered to a perfect position. Can he hold on for the win?

Modolo and Ewan will find the technical finish much more suited to their abilities, while Kristoff, Greipel and Demare might struggle. Although the Frenchman is probably the best out of that 3.

Prediction

Going with my gut while the rider might go with his nut! Bouhanni wins.

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He’s in the top 3 sprinters here based on pure speed, his train is in the top 3, but most importantly he is fearless and incredibly motivated. I expect the Cofidis boys to sharpen up their act tomorrow, asserting their dominance at the head of the peloton in the final 2km. Managing to drop Bouhanni off in the perfect position and he cruises home for the win.

I say Nizzolo and Sagan round out the podium.

Betting

1.5pt Bouhanni  WIN @ 9/2 (B365)

0.25pt Nizzolo EW @ 33/1 (B365)

 

Thanks again for reading! Apologies for this being slightly shorter than normal, there’s just not that much to talk about. Who do you think will win the stage? As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF Stage 3 Preview: Granville -> Angers

Today’s Recap

After being surprised by the Cavendish win on Stage 1, there was no real surprise with today’s winner: Peter Sagan. He looked so strong and effortless, and you would fancy him to hold onto yellow until at least Stage 7.  With the Green Jersey pretty much sewn up already!

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Disappointed with Coquard, who put pressure on himself by saying that he was going for the stage etc. It was just too tough for him in the end, which I wasn’t expecting to be honest. Although in hindsight, he is the worst climber of the AGR contenders such as Matthews and Alaphilippe. Anyway, onto tomorrow!

The Route

A long day in the saddle and a relatively boring affair for the viewers. Glad it’s on the Monday, definitely one to tune in to in the last 20km.

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Although the road rises and falls a lot, this is definitely a day for the sprinters and is all about the run in.

The first thing to note is that it’s not a flat final km.

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It appears to rise 2.5% on average for that kilometre, although going off of the profile above the second part looks steeper with the first 500m being more shallow.

This will change the type of sprint that it is. You really can’t go too early otherwise you’ll burn up. Patience/a tactical brain and a strong lead-out will be very useful here. Speaking of which…

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The run-in is also fairly technical too, with a roundabout and a few sharp turns, not to mention a 90-degree right within the final 400m. I wonder if as many of the riders will complain about this like they did in Switzerland recently!  Being well positioned through that final corner will be key, as coming from far back on an incline finish will really sap the legs and take a monumental effort.

Stage Contenders

The two Germans get their regular mention. Kittel will be hoping to go better than his 2nd on the opening stage. He could well do so, but off the top of my head I can’t remember him being overly convincing on a finish like this. Yes, he went well on Hatta Dam but they’re too different types of effort. However, with his characteristics he should be up there challenging but I just think there are other riders who are better at these finishes. For example, his compatriot Greipel.

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He won a very similar finish at the Giro earlier in the year and with his better climbing ability (compared to Kittel) if I was a bookmaker I’d probably have him as favourite over Kittel. But I’m not a bookmaker, so that’s why he’s not my favourite 😉

Cavendish should be considered for this stage, but with all of his track work that he’s done, I think that will be a detriment to him on this type of finish. He won’t be top 5.

Someone who will definitely come top 5 is Sagan. Today’s winner has a very good chance of going back to back tomorrow. As I said in today’s preview, I don’t even think his sprint is at his best yet. A podium should be the least that he’s expecting.

Theuns went very well on stage 1 to come 5th and this type of sprint should suit him even more. With the crash on that stage hampering others lead-outs, I’m intrigued to see how he goes in a full sprint. He’ll be hoping to go top 5.

Our man from today, Coquard, will be hoping to bounce back in tomorrow’s sprint.

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If you’ve read this blog for a little while, you’ll know how much of a fan I am of the “local rider” idea! He should be able to skip up this finale, and with Petit positioning him well, he’ll be hoping for a podium at least.

Others who could go well are Groenewegen, Kristoff and possibly Degenkolb.

I would like to highlight two more riders.

Firstly, Michael Matthews.

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I was hesitant to back the Aussie for today’s stage because of his crash yesterday, however he got through unscathed. It would have been an unfruitful back because he finished in 5th but it shows that he’s going well. This finish really brings him closer to the proper fast men, his stage win earlier in the year against Bouhanni proves that. I think he can go very well here tomorrow.

More of an outsider, I think pocket rocket Samuel Dumoulin could cause a bit of an upset and a stir here.

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He had an exceptional end to May, but was a bit below par at the Dauphiné. However, he seems to be on the right track after coming 4th at the French National Champs on a very tough circuit. The incline at the end of the race will be no problem for him.

Prediction

I’m finding it hard to narrow down this stage, but the name that keeps appearing in my head who could win out of several situations is the same: Peter Sagan. The World Champion finally got his Yellow Jersey and I’m sure he’ll be determined to get a stage win in it. Tomorrow represents a very good chance for that.

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In a massive surprise, Coquard and Matthews to round out the podium with Sam Dum sneaking a top 5.

Betting

Doing something I haven’t done for a while and backing 4 riders for a sprint stage.

2pts outright on Sagan @ 13/2 with Betway

0.5pt EW on Coquard @ 22/1 with Paddy Power

0.4pt EW on Matthews @ 80/1 with Paddy Power

0.1pt EW on S.Dumoulin @ 250/1 with Bet365.

 

I wouldn’t be overly annoyed if you didn’t catch the majority of this stage, just make sure you see the final 20km!

Hope you enjoyed the preview, feedback as usual is great! How do you think it will pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Giro stage 3: Nijmegen – Arnhem

Today’s Recap

Well, what a resounding win for the fantastically-haired German! It was never in doubt once he pulled out of Demare’s slipstream and powered away to a comfortable win. As for some of the other top-tier sprinters, the likes of Greipel (15th), Viviani (13th) and Nizzolo (10th) all went missing. It was a poor stage in terms of a spectacle. The peloton was on a club-run until the final 20km or so, let’s hope for something a bit more lively tomorrow!

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As for the blog’s pick of Hofland he came home in a credible 4th place. A good effort, but not good enough to return us any profit. I was impressed by his power, considering he started so far back. Only those in front of him when the sprint started (Kittel, Demare and Modolo) beat him. I think he came from about 9th or 10th wheel but it was too little too late.

That’s now two days in a row that I’ve picked relative outsiders and they’ve both finished in 4th place. So if you find out who’ll finish in 4th tomorrow, then keep on reading!

The Route

Flat. Pretty much. Again.

Instead of going West like today, the riders head East from Nijmegen before turning back and returning to Arnhem. We have another bump that’s classified as a KOM point, so expect jersey holder Fraile to be in the break again, but like today, it’s nothing to trouble the bunch.

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Route map
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Stage Profile

The race again adopts a finishing circuit, with the riders doing two laps of it. Much like today, the circuit itself isn’t very technical, apart from a 360-degree loop, but that comes with just over 5km to go. This will shake things up for the sprint trains, but after that there are long straights and a few 90-degree turns which shouldn’t be too much of a hassle.

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The circuit around Arnhem. It’s covered twice.

There is one roundabout with 600m to go, so being in the first 5 or so riders here will be crucial. It’s not a sharp turn, but the swooping nature of it will really stretch out the peloton. This could result in the finale being even more chaotic than today!

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The roundabout with 600m to go. The riders go straight ahead. This should stretch out the peloton! Positioning will be crucial.

 

Weather Watch

Disappointingly today we didn’t get any real cross winds, however, tomorrow is the stage where it’s more likely to happen. This is because the race goes through more exposed farmland with few trees etc to shelter the riders. Annoyingly, the race travels through the most exposed areas relatively early on in the stage.

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Wind at Zutphen (75km to go). Note the speed is in Km/h. (Source: Windfinder)

However, there is a chance that we might see some crosswind action when the race travels between the town of Zutphen (75km to go) and the KOM point at 50km to go. This could potentially continue in the run into Arnhem where the road (and wind) continue in the same direction. This will be less likely as the more sheltered area will provide more protection for the riders. However, the wind will still be quite strong, averaging the same 30km/h speed. This is about a third faster than it was today! I’m not holding out any hope for cross winds though because it will take a lot of effort from one or two teams to split things up. Yet again, I have seen stranger things happen before…

The Winner

*Insert yesterday’s paragraph here*.

All joking aside, it’s very hard to see past Kittel again for tomorrow’s stage. Etixx timed everything perfectly with the lead-out and I expect more of the same tomorrow. He should be in the first 5 or so through that roundabout and he’ll romp to victory again.

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Who’ll be best of the rest?

You have to expect it will be the same contingent of riders who will be competing for the podium spots tomorrow. The finish tomorrow (as I’ve said above) is a bit complex so I fear Greipel will not be there again. I do expect Viviani and Nizzolo to be there. For this to happen Viviani has to be brought right to the front and be dropped on Kittel’s wheel with around 2km to go, no easy task! The Trek lead-out train was poor today so they need to sort themselves out.

FDJ were the big surprise lead-out for me, I didn’t expect them to be that good. They’ll need a repeat performance tomorrow if Demare wants any chance.

The IAM train was a big let down, no-where to be seen and they ended up with Pelucchi finishing way down in 23rd. Roger Kluge says that they all lost each other with around 3km to go and couldn’t move up together. Pelucchi himself had to do a few short sharp efforts to get near the front but that tired him out. Not good. I expect them to rectify this tomorrow.

Ewan seemed to be brought up to a good position, but got bullied off of Kittel’s wheel by Ruffoni and went backwards from there. His sprint was average.

Modolo didn’t get a great lead-out, but what can be expected when he only has Ferrari to put him into position! He did do well to surf the wheels and get up for third place.

As I said yesterday, Lotto Jumbo don’t have a proper sprint train lead out as such, but they did an OK job today of delivering Hofland. They took it up too early today and Hofland was left on his own about 1km too soon. If they want success tomorrow they’ll have to do what everyone wants to do and drop him off on Kittel’s wheel!

Prediction

As much as I’d love to see some cross-wind action, I just can’t see it happening. The main areas affected come too far out from the finish line and I can’t see a team putting in the effort required to split the peloton, so we’ll probably see a full bunch gallop.

Once again, Kittel is the man to beat and everyone else will be racing for minor positions.

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Betting

From a punter’s perspective as clear a favourite as Kittel is, if the odds of 1/1 did not entice me yesterday (maybe they will in the future), then what’s being offered just now (1/2) definitely doesn’t!

The big question is whether to stick or twist with Hofland. He did a very strong sprint today, but tomorrow’s slightly more technical finale requires a strong lead-out. That of which he doesn’t have. So I think I’ll twist.

I’m going to go for someone who has the speed to match Kittel and on paper has one of the strongest lead-out trains here: Matteo Pelucchi. I fancy that the IAM boys will have got a rollocking today and they won’t want to mess things up two days in a row. They have strength in numbers and the engines to command the final 2km and get to that roundabout first, coming out of it with two riders in-front of Pelucchi. From there, all Matteo has to do is put his head down and hope that he can beat Kittel!

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A few people have asked if I state a suggestion of how much money to back each rider with, so from now on I’ll leave a points based recommendation at the end of each post.

Pelucchi is available at 33/1 with PaddyPower and Betway. I’d recommend 0.5pts EW on him at that price. I would say he’s value down to the 25/1 that’s available with Bet365, but I would try to get something higher than that. Be on the look-out, you might manage to get a higher price than that when other bookmakers put out their prices.

I’m also going to start a blog £25-£1000 H2H challenge for the Giro. This will involve putting on one H2H bet for each stage. I’ll try and get as close to Evens as possible for each bet, as long as I’m confident with the selection. If all of the bets are at odds of roughly 8/11 then it should take 8-9 bets to come in (if some of the money is taken off after each bet).

So Challenge Bet 1 is Matteo Pelucchi over Jakub Mareczko at 8/11 available with Bet365.

Thanks again for everyone who’s managed to get this far. I might do a rest-day-recap but I’m unsure. If not I’ll be back with a stage 4 preview on Monday evening. Hope you all enjoy tomorrow’s racing! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.