Tag: Stage 1

Dubai Tour Stage 1 Preview; Dubai -> Palm Jumeirah

The Route

Pan flat jaunt around the city and its outskirts, with a little trip out to the camel track.

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I doubt there will be much action at all until we get into the final 10km when the sprint teams start to properly get themselves organised. Once onto the Palm, they’ll enter the tunnel that was the scene of a crash last year, with around 7km to go.

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From there they take a left, continue on for a couple of kilometres, make a U-turn and head towards the finish. The riders do have to negotiate a few pinch-points and traverse a couple of roundabouts; there is even one at around 400m to go. Surely this will cause panic?! Well, I use the term “roundabout” loosely…

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All that money and they make a shoddy little roundabout. Tut, tut.

No problems for the sprinters here, straight on it is, finishing beside the big hotel further up the road!

Contenders

Billed as a showdown between Kittel and Cavendish and to be honest that’s a good summary.

Kittel comes here with a solid lead-out. He’ll be able to rely on the likes of Trentin and Vermotte, but Sabatini will probably be his last man. That pairing didn’t work too well last year so I’m intrigued to see how it plays out this time round. It’s a good lead-out, but not amazing.

Cavendish arrives with a much better lead-out train in my opinion. Eisel will control the road in the final few kilometres, bossing everyone around. I like the addition of Thwaites to the team and I imagine he’ll fit into third man in the train here. The Manxman can then rely on his favourite pilot-fish, and the Barry to his Paul Chuckle, Mark Renshaw. One of the best in the business, Renshaw will be able to deliver Cav in the perfect position and from there it will be a drag race to the line.

Aside from those two, there are still some other fast-men here.

Groenewegen might be the sprinter they fear the most as he’s pretty much fearless himself; attempting to squeeze through any gap he can in the final kilometre. Last year he started the year with a stage win in Valenciana, can he do the same here?

Viviani already has some racing in his legs at San Juan, picking up three 2nd places behind QuickStep riders. He’s very hot or cold with his sprinting and I think he might be a bit cold here the first few stages but will be better later on. No real reason, just an inkling!

Modolo, Degenkolb, and Mareczko could all well be in the mix too and they’ll hope for a podium place. Especially Degenkolb who will fancy his chances at the overall title.

Prediction

Like I said in my GC Preview, I think Cavendish will be amped-up and ready to go from the gun here. He’ll want to put an early season marker down, and take the mental advantage over Kittel. Although he’s talking down his chances, suggesting that he’s not in great shape etc, I think his winning instinct will take over.

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Betting

Should be a no bet if you’re sensible. I’m not sensible.

2pts WIN on Cavendish at 9/4. Would take down to 7/4.

Thanks for reading! These Dubai Tour stage previews will probably be shorter than normal, aside from days that the wind could wreak havoc, purely because it’s almost a copy/paste job! As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

Eneco Tour Stage 1 Preview: Bolsward -> Bolsward

Eneco Tour Stage 1 Preview: Bolsward -> Bolsward

No proper GC preview from me, but I’ll give a quick insight into how I think it will play out. The TTT will probably shape the race and with BMC the likely winners of that stage, they should have at least 4 riders in the top 10 going into the tougher stages at the end. Playing the numbers game, they should hold on for the win, with GVA or Dennis being their best candidates. I’d go with Van Avermaet to win it!

However, if some teams can stay relatively close in the TTT, such as Tinkoff, then they have a chance to upset the apple cart. The ITT won’t play a huge part in the race, as there won’t be massive time gaps because of it, so it will come down to the TTT and the final two road stages. After Sagan crushing the opposition today at the Euro Champs he’ll be brimming with confidence (like always!) and could claw back some time here. My dark-horse for the week is his team-mate Michael Valgren. A top 5 would be, and require a fantastic performance but a top 10 does look achievable!

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Anyway, let’s have a look at the opening stage.

The Route

The organisers aren’t entirely helpful and there are no official profiles. There are GPX files which you can download so I’ve attempted to make my own stage profile. However, Strava seems to get a bit confused at some point and the route it makes is 6km longer than the official 184km for the stage. Nonetheless, here it is…

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Pan-flat pretty much all day, although with some tiny changes in elevation, but that’s me really scraping the barrel for something to talk about! It is a nailed on sprint stage.

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The final 3km should be fairly straight-forward, although it is important to note that the roads aren’t large open highways. Instead, they’re normal two-lane roads, so there won’t be lots of space for every team at the front. This is particularly interesting with the number of sprinters and lead-out trains that we have here. Speaking of which…

Sprint Contenders

We have a whole host of sprint talent here, as they gear up towards the World’s in Qatar that start in just under a months time.

The fastest man in the world, Marcel Kittel, makes an appearance here. After a poor TDF, only picking up one stage win, he finally returned to racing at the end of last month. He re-found his race pace in Germany doing some work for team-mates, and managed to win GP Fourmies a fortnight ago. However, he was physically sick during the race in Belgium on Friday, forcing him to abandon. I’m not sure if he’ll have recovered fully by tomorrow and he won’t make the podium. Bold claim, I know!

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In fact, if he isn’t feeling 100% Etixx may turn to Boonen as their sprint option. I just think he lacks the top end speed now to match the best on a pure sprint like this. No Etixx rider in the top 5 tomorrow!

Looking to seize his opportunity will be Andre Greipel. The Gorilla has had a very solid season, he always seems to deliver! Winning the opening stage at the Tour of Britain comfortably he then turned his focus to team duties, riding for Debuscherre for the rest of the race. He’ll be back to team leader in the sprints here. With the simple run-in he’ll want to take advantage and remind everyone, particularly the German World’s selectors, that he is the man to beat. With a solid lead-out, the stage is certainly there for the taking!

One rider who will have something to say about that is Nacer Bouhanni. The mercurial Frenchman has his full lead-out train with him here. Having felt hard done by in the past few months with being relegated in a sprint and supposedly the whole world against him, he’s going to come out fighting! A very fast rider on his day, people seem to forget he has a great kick. With Kittel not 100% and Greipel not a fan if things get messy, Bouhanni is a serious threat!

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Kristoff comes here after dominating his local race, the Tour des Fjords. Admittedly, the level of sprinters there wasn’t that high but confidence is key for sprinters, so Kristoff will come here with high levels of expectations. Can he deliver? Quite possibly. He’ll be hoping for a headwind sprint!

Orica come here with two options, Matthews or Ewan. I think they’ll go for the latter in tomorrow’s sprint. With it being pan-flat, it suits Ewan’s characteristics a lot more. However, as fast as he is, I don’t think he’s at the level to win against this competition consistently, not just yet. Maybe next year and certainly in years to come!

One rider I am interested in seeing how they go here is Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian has had a bit of a so-so season, but as his country’s main hope for a medal at the World’s he’ll be coming here in good form. He crashed in Britain, but seemed to be over that, winning Coppa Bernocchi midweek. The Trek team here is surprisingly strong, with Stuyven, Van Poppel and Bonifazio to lead him out. A rider who’s promised a lot in the past, I think he’ll get a win this week. Is tomorrow his day?

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How can I leave out the new European Champion too! Sagan was incredibly strong today, but can he pull off back to back wins? It will be tough but he his capable of doing it. He’s looking in great shape for the Worlds, but will he risk that chance to mix it up in the sprints here?

Aside from those mentioned above, there are still several guys who could get in the mix; Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Danny Van Poppel, Wippert, Démare, Modolo, Kreder, Capiot, Van Lerberghe, Jans, Dehaes, Van Genechten, Renshaw, EBH & GVA. Quite the list! Eat your heart out CyclingQuotes 😉

The first three in that list are most likely to challenge.

Prediction

Flat sprint, straight roads and a team that normally starts with a bang. Greipel to take the win and make a big statement!

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Betting

With a stage that could cause a few surprises, a sensible decision would be a no bet. But we all know I’m not very sensible and don’t like sitting on the fence!

Greipel 1pt WIN @ 5/1 with Bet365

Nizzolo 0.25pt EW @28/1 with Various bookmakers.

 

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed the preview?! How do you think the first sprint stage will go down? As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

La Vuelta Stage 1 Preview

La Vuelta Stage 1 Preview

The first stage of the final Grand Tour of the year is upon is, and going with recent Vuelta tradition, we start with a Team Time Trial. Great, I do love a TTT! This year’s effort isn’t going to be as farcical as the route we had last year along the beach to Marbella where GC times were neutralised. Let’s take a look at the stage.

The Route

A nice flat TTT for the specialist’s seems to be the memo.

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Going off the official profile it would be safe to assume that it’s a straightforward day, where the proper TT engines of the peloton come to the fore along fairly flat roads. Well you’d be wrong my friend, this is the Vuelta after all, where stage profiles should be taken with a pinch of salt!

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My strava profile of the stage

In TT tradition, I’ve created a profile on Strava for the stage that you can view here. At first glance, this profile looks nothing like the official profile. This is due to the different vertical axis that have been used. In the Strava profile it goes from 80m-180m whereas the official profile is 0-600m. Quite the difference!

Now, I’ll be the first to admit that my Strava profile grossly exaggerates some of the rises and lumps, particularly in the middle part of the stage. However, it does give a better idea of the rolling nature of the course. For example, the first kilometre is pretty much all up-hill, averaging roughly 4-5% but there is no suggestion of that in the official profile. GCN highlight this in their video preview of the stage.

The most demanding climb on the course is from 21.8km to 24.2km to go, which averages a lowly 3.6% for those 2.4km. However, the final 500m of that section averages close to 8%. Again, this is just a small little bump on the official profile.

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The start of that 500m section

There are some fast and technical sections along the route too, particularly the descent off of the climb mentioned above.

So in summary, the route is more difficult than originally thought and brings a few more teams into the equation. There are some testing ramps that result in constant changes of tempo at times and this definitely benefits a few teams more than others. In contrast, the proper TTT powerhouses will still fancy their chances. It should make for some good racing!

However, there are still only 7 teams at most that can win this in my opinion.

Stage Contenders

Where best to start than with the current World Champions, BMC. They only have two of that world’s winning squad here with them (TVG & Dillier), but they are still a very strong and powerful unit. All of the riders should be able to cope with the undulating nature of the course and they will definitely be the team to beat.

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Second at the World’s last year was Etixx – Quick Step and they’ll be hoping to go one better here. Like BMC, they also have two of that squad here with them (Terpstra & Lampaert) with the rest of the squad filled out with powerful riders. They’ll go well here.

Orica traditionally go well in TTTs and have two of their last World’s squad with them as well (Tuft & Bewley). Again, a strong team that’s not outstanding, they will hope for a strong result but I can’t see them winning this.

Astana are normally very hit and miss with their TTTs, the squad that arrives here suggests that they’ll do the former. They have a good mix of strong rouleurs and solid climbers. I expect a surprise from them, a podium would be good!

After winning the Tour, Team Sky come here with a lot less pressure on them. They have a solid squad, a real mix bag of riders. They were great at TTT’s a few years ago, but lost their way recently. This almost mirrors Froome’s individual TT performance, will we see a similar return to form? It is very much on the cards I think!

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Next up are a team that always go well in Spain: Movistar. The only Spanish World Tour team save their best for home soil and yet again they bring a strong squad here. With the route being more undulating than originally thought will help them as they have a solid group of climbers on the team.

Tinkoff usually go fairly well and with Contador’s GC hopes, they’ll have to do the same here. Bodnar & Bennati are very strong in this type of discipline. I can’t see them challenge the top spot, but if they get a bit of luck a podium isn’t out of reach. Instead, I think a top 5 would be a good result for them!

Those teams will all be fighting for the top 5. The rest of the squads with GC contenders will just be hoping not to lose much time. We could see some reasonable time gaps!

Prediction

I think we all know where this is going…

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Guess the Spanish team will have to do then; Movistar to win the TTT! The knowledge of home/local roads and a mixture of good climbing abilities combined with power on the flats will see them through. It’s just a question of who they will put in the leader’s jersey, most likely one of the team’s “old-heads”, Erviti or Rojas.

Rojas in Rojo has a nice ring to it!

For what it’s worth, Sky and BMC will make up the podium.

Betting

Backing Movistar to win. 2pts WIN @3/1 with Bet365 (hunt around later when more bookies price up, I just want to get the preview out!)

I also like a H2H double with them too;

MOVISTAR to beat Lotto Jumbo, and ETIXX to beat Tinkoff.

3pts on  at 1.87/1

 

Thanks again for reading! Can you see any team beating the Spaniards? As usual, any feedback/discussion is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

TDF stage 1 preview: Mont-Saint-Michel -> Utah Beach

This week seems to have dragged on for a while, but the first stage of the Tour is finally upon us! The Yellow Jersey appears to be destined for the shoulders of one of the many sprinters that are here at this race come tomorrow afternoon. But first, let’s take a look at the route the riders will have to traverse.

The Route

Not a challenging parcours in terms of climbing, the opening stage is a fairly flat affair. There are some bumps along the way but nothing overly worrying for the fast men.

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We’ll probably see a slightly tougher than normal fight to get into the morning breakaway with the two categorised climbs coming within the first 40km. The winner of these two climbs will get to pull on the Polka Dot jersey at the end of the day. Expect the usual suspects and teams to go after it.

The main obstacle that the riders will have to face on this stage is the threat of crosswinds.

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With the race never straying far from the coast-line, the action could start soon after the final KOM climb.

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Wind direction/ speed / max gusts (Granville) (All speeds km/h)

The above screenshot is taken from windfinder.com and focusses on the town of Granville which is situated roughly 51km into the stage. The wind direction and speed definitely looks strong enough to create some echelons! The same can be said later on in the stage too, with the following screenshot taken of the town of Lessay, which is 110km into the race.

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If some of the teams decide to put the hammer down then we could see some splits and time-gaps. Although there is a long way to go after this point (just over 75km), the race comes slightly more in land and should benefit from a cross-tailwind, cross-headwind and finally a tailwind coming into the finish at Utah Beach. Any reasonable-sized gaps made earlier in the stage will be very hard to bring back!

Stage Contenders

If it comes down to a fair sprint then there really are only two contenders; Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. They are quite evenly matched in this type of finish but I’d have to give Kittel the edge, and he is rightly the favourite for the stage. If Greipel wants to beat his countryman then he’ll have to start his sprint ahead of him. This is certainly possible as Greipel has the best lead out train in the race in my opinion!

Who will try to split the race?

Some of the GC teams (Sky, Tinkoff etc) will give it a shot, but annoyingly for some of the other sprinters Etixx and Lotto Soudal are capable of doing some damage as well. So there is a very good chance that they’ll be around at the end no matter what. More than likely, the rest of the sprinters will probably be fighting for third place.

However, with this being the first stage the usual peloton nervousness will be exacerbated by the potential tricky conditions and I think we’ll see some unfortunate crashes and possibly some GC/sprint casualties. Therefore, I don’t think we’ll get a full sprint at the end of the stage. It could very much be like stage 2 from last years Tour, where only 24 riders finished within 15 seconds of the winner on that day, Andre Greipel.

The numbers and composition of that group, who knows?!

There are two riders who if the race gets tough that I’d like to highlight. First up is Fabian Cancellara.

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The Swiss rider is about to start his final ever Tour de France and after missing out on wearing the Maglia Rosa at the Giro, he’ll be incredibly fired up here to make amends. He managed to sprint for third on last years wind-affected stage, pipping Mark Cavendish on the line. If the group gets whittled down to round 15 riders, he is a definite danger man.

The other rider is his team-mate and Tour debutant, Edward Theuns.

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Making the step up to World Tour level this year, the Belgian has delivered some good results this year, finally getting his first win for Trek at the Baloise Belgium Tour. A rider not afraid of wind (and rain), he’ll definitely be one of the fastest riders left in a reduced group. After all, he came 4th at Scheldeprijs (A.K.A The Sprinters World Championships) so is no slouch.

Prediction

It’s the boring and simple pick, but I can’t really see past a Marcel Kittel win here. He’s the fastest man in the world, and now riding for Etixx (arguably the best echelon creating team) they’ll be able to safeguard him in the bad conditions.

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However, there is a slight chance that there is absolute carnage out on the road tomorrow and if that’s the case then look to Cancellara or Theuns to possibly sneak on the podium or even better.

Betting

This really should be a no bet stage. I personally have money on Kittel at 9/4 from pre-Giro, however those odds are long gone and I can’t recommend him at the price he is just now (around evens) in a race that could be wild.

Just because I’ve mentioned them as possibilities if things do get crazy, I’m going to put a little fun stake (0.1pt EW) on Cancellara and Theuns.

Cancellara @ 300/1 (Betfred or Totesport) or 250/1 with Skybet.

Theuns @ 400/1 (Paddy Power).

 

Hopefully we do get some crosswind action to make the stage more exciting, otherwise it will be a dull and long day until the final 20km. Enjoy the race wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Dauphiné Stage 1: Cluses – Saint-Vulbas

Today’s Recap

Alaphilippe set the early benchmark but that was beaten by Froome, whose time stood all day until we got the rest of the GC favourites at the end. Contador put in a masterclass, toppling Froome and beating him by 13 seconds. Very ominous for the rest of the race!

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Credit has to go to Richie Porte who finished second. In the preview I wrote him off, but it looks like I’m having to eat my words. Some humble pie will be consumed later!

Our pair of Martin and Alaphilippe ended up 4th and 5th respectively. Close, but no cigar. Starting a blog with a 4th place finish is becoming a common occurrence (Ludvigsson at the Giro). Have to say, I’m disappointed with Aru’s time but there’s still plenty of racing left to come. Onto tomorrow!

The Route

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Nothing overly exciting here.

The usual morning break will build up a large advantage with the Pro-Conti teams being represented and one of them will pick up the KOM jersey. I say that’ll be Antoine Duchesne from Direct Energie.

A combination of Tinkoff and sprint teams will ensure the gap doesn’t get ridiculous and they’ll slowly be reeled in over the final 60km.

The finish in Saint-Vulbas is fairly straight forward.

Screen Shot 2016-06-05 at 15.17.12 As you can see, there are a few roundabouts in the final 5km but the last of those comes at 3km out. A few 90-degree turns follow but we have a long straight run in to the line. This sprint is all about speed and lead-out trains.

The Sprinters

Bouhanni and Kristoff have to come into this stage as the clear favourites. They’ve both recently shown form and in this type of pure top-end speed, flat sprint, they’re a class above the competition.

Bouhanni has his favoured #2 with him here Soupe. I expect the Cofidis train to be Vanbilsen -> Laporte -> Bozic -> Soupe -> Bouhanni. A solid lead-out train but by no means amazing, they don’t have the power to take it up too early. One thing is for sure, the Frenchman won’t go down without a fight.

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Kristoff has Vicioso -> Morkov -> Haller -> Guarnieri. As we’ve seen in previous races; if Kristoff gets left at the front with 150m to go, then he’s very hard to come round!

They’ve both been going quite well recently, but on a bigger stage here, will they continue their good form or flop?

Away from the top 2 there are other fast riders here. A lot of them. Every team has a sprinter of sorts.

Trek are greedy and have two! Both Bonifazio and Theuns could compete here and have the closing speed to beat the favourites. The main issue with them is that they’ll both want to lead the team. They had the same issue at Scheldiprijs when both of them seemed to sprint with Theuns finishing 4th and Bonifazio 3rd. Therefore it’s impossible to call who’ll be sprinting. I hope for their sake that one of them gets leadership for this stage and the other for stage 4. A nice clear-cut decision from the Trek management is needed!

Away from Trek, young Irishman Sam Bennett has a decent turn of speed. He also has his key lieutenant with him Shane Archbold (a.k.a The Flying Mullet). Bennett has had an underwhelming season so far, could he turn the page here?

Mountain-goat one day, sprinter the next? Julian Alaphilippe will be Etixx’s hope for the sprint stages. He has very good TTers to put him in position behind Kristoff or Bouhanni. The question is if he has the speed to come round them? I think not.

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Gerrans or Impey could get involved for Orica, while EBH will be Dimension Data’s man. However, I think he’ll be targeting stages later in the week. He doesn’t have the top end speed to win here.

Moreno Hofland will have Teunissen at hand to lead him out, possibly try to copy Lampre’s one man lead-out tactic. While GVA will be BMCs man for the fast stages.

Has Degenkolb recovered from his injury at the start of the year? He did well in California so looks to be heading in the right direction.

Lotto Soudal will count on the Belgian Jens Deubscherre.

IAM will have to decide between Holst Enger and Van Genechten for the sprints. A top 5 would be a good result for them.

Finally, Samuel Dumoulin has won two sprints on the bounce, can he manage something against a step up in opposition here?

So in summary, Kristoff & Bouhanni on paper are the best, but there are a plethora of riders ready to take the limelight.

Prediction

There will be a massive fight to get on the podium and we could even get a surprise winner, especially with neither of the favourites being overly convincing this season. However saying that, I think the feisty Frenchman has enough in the tank to win this one. He seems to be on better form on the pure flat sprints compared to Kristoff this year and is undoubtedly one of the fastest riders in the World if he’s up for it. He’ll want a win on home soil and on the big stage, reminding everyone that he’ll be there fighting at the Tour.

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Betting

Back Bouhanni straight up for the win @3/1 (with Paddy Power) 2.5pts stake

As an outsider for the podium I fancy Bennett @33/1 with PP as well. 0.25pts EW

Hunt around when more bookies price up, there’s a chance you might get better odds.

*Adding two H2Hs as well with PP; Bouhanni ov Kristoff @ 11/8 and Bennett ov Hofland @ 11/8. 2pts Each*

 

Hope you enjoyed the preview as usual! It will be interesting to see how the sprint unfolds tomorrow with so many contenders. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.