Definitely not one for the sprinters and even EBH struggled up the final climb. A break of 3, who got clear at the crest of the cat 2 almost made it to the line. But it was the charging Jesús Herrada who came out the front of the peloton and stole victory. It was a very impressive display of speed and power!
Our picks didn’t really do anything at all. Coppel made an attack off the front but was brought back by Tinkoff and was our best finisher in 39th. Dennis came home in a respectable 107th. Lets hope for better tomorrow!
The Route
Another lumpy day on the cards for the peloton, with quite a reasonable amount of climbing metres.
The Cat-2 is weird. The actual KOM comes with 161km to go but as you can see, the road doesn’t stop climbing there.
The Cat-2 itself
A short and relatively sharp climb, this will put the sprinters in difficulty. If they’re in trouble here then they’ll be dropped once we get past the “summit”. Bouhanni is going to see if he can survive the climb, it will be very close.
The final kilometre is downhill and it isn’t exactly the easiest run in. If we do get a sprint, it will be a messy one!
The twists and turns really favour a late attacker, with the old cliché; “out of sight, of mind” inevitably being used by the commentary team tomorrow.
How will the stage pan out?
I think a break makes it tomorrow.
As we saw today, Tinkoff are quite happy to relinquish control of the race leadership and it was only because Etixx started chasing that the break was reeled back in.
The sprinters teams will be concerned that their rider can make it over the final climb and I can’t see them chasing. None of the Ardenne-style guys impressed today so they probably won’t chase. The best things for the teams to do is get guy in the morning break and see how it pans out.
If it all comes back together, I think we still see a solo winner with someone putting in a well-timed late attack…
Breakaway Candidates
Anyone who isn’t a GC threat. Basically.
As I said above, Tinkoff will quite happily lose control of the race. That really broadens the potential winners of the stage so even those close on GC now have a chance.
Like in the Giro I’m going to pick three riders who I think could give it a go, and look at them more in-depth.
First up is Antoine Duchesne. The young Canadian hasn’t featured in the break yet which is surprising. Considering that he never seemed out of them at Paris Nice earlier in the year. I liked what I saw of him in that race and he seems to ride with a lot of heart. He’s definitely a guy who could handle a day like this. Without a pro win yet, could this be it?
Next up is a more familiar name: Niki Terpstra. A massive engine who isn’t afraid of getting in a break. He could be sent up the road so that his Etixx team don’t have to do any work behind. Alaphilippe has a good chance on this stage if the proper fast-men get dropped, but I don’t think Etixx will put all their eggs in his basket. Terpstra would be one of the strongest in any break, will he be the best climber though?
Finally, Omar Fraile from Dimension Data is another possibility. An attacking rider who also isn’t shy of breakaways. Like Etixx, EBH might fancy tomorrow, but DD won’t want to commit 100%. Fraile has the climbing ability to make it over the final hill, will he be alone?
Prediction
Break makes it and I’ll go for the talented Spaniard. Fraile won’t be so frail!
Betting
Tomorrow has in-play wrote all over it. Small stakes on the break picks. 0.15pt EW each
Fraile 200/1 @ Bet365
Terpstra 300/1 @ PP
Duchesne 250/1 @ PP.
Hope you enjoyed the preview. Sorry for it being shorter than normal, I’ve got a splitting headache! Anyway,
The end is nigh, a correct blog prediction and a full house at that!
Bouhanni wasn’t the one doing all of the fighting today, with his sprint train locking-heads with the Katusha boys. A bit too forceful some might say and to be honest I have to agree. Bouhanni himself put in few well-placed head nudges to Kristoff but still lost the battle for the wheel.
In the final few hundred metres, Kristoff got chopped off by Bennett who veered across him a little bit. Bouhanni then launched from behind the Irishman and he was never going to be beaten from there. Cruising home for the win.
Bennett held on for third, winning the match bet against Hofland. A good start to the road stages after hitting the post and crossbar in the prologue. Enough about today, let’s look ahead to tomorrow’s stage!
The Route
A lumpy rolling day with a hill-top finish.
This stage finale has all the ingredients for an exciting end to the day, with the first hill-top finish. A lot of riders will fancy themselves on this type of finish.
As per usual, a break can expected to get away early and be controlled by Tinkoff. We’ll then see some other teams offer one rider in support and the break will be caught either at the bottom or somewhere on the ascent of the final Cat 2 climb.
As you can see, these aren’t the toughest climbs in the world, with low average gradients and long false flats. There are a few steeper ramps but these never go above 9%. A lot of riders will fancy themselves to hold on. The only thing that will deter a few is that the final kilometre is the steepest. Once over the crest we get a few hundred metres of false-flat/shallow descent.
The Weather
After having very pleasant conditions today, the riders will have a much worse day tomorrow with thunderstorms and showers predicted for the end of the stage.
How will the stage pan out?
As I’ve alluded to above, this stage should be very interesting due to the different possible outcomes. Will any of the sprinters survive? Will it be a sprint of Ardenne-specialists/punchy riders? Or will someone make a well-time attack in the finale?
As lots of riders will fancy their chances here, so I’m only going to name a few for each situation.
The first of these is a bit far-fetched, but stranger things have happened. Bouhanni has shown before that he can climb will. His 5th place on stage 13 of the 2014 Vuelta is a great example of that. If John Degenkolb was at full-fitness then this stage would suit him perfectly. I’m interested to see how Sondre Holst Enger goes here. He climbed exceptionally well at the Tour of Norway and packs a mean kick after a tough day. Has he been able to continue his form?
EBH, GVA and Gasparotto and co will all fancy their chances in a sprint up the final kicker. The only difficulty is that if these type of riders attack, I can’t see them distancing anyone. This is due to the climb not being severe enough in gradient to put their competitiors in difficulty. Therefore their best chance is that they get team-mates to mark attacks, hope that the proper fast men are dropped and compete in a reduced bunch sprint. I also like the look of Impey, he seems to be in better form than Gerrans. Although, I’d say EBH is the fastest of those who will be left in that case.
As much as saying above, that a late attack won’t work. It will from the correct rider. This could happen on the false flat before the final kicker, or on the ramp itself. For a rider to get away they’ll have to be from the right team, i.e. with a back-up plan behind, and strong enough to get away. They also have to be able to climb reasonably well to hold of the chasing pack. Look to riders who put in a relatively good TT. Coppel, Cummings and Dennis are examples. The Australian would be my pick! In fact, the whole of the BMC team put in great TT performances.
Watch out for Brent Bookwalter. He’s a favourite rider of mine, a super strong domestique who can sprint and TT. He might get let of the leash and not have to work for GVA.
Prediction
After there being an obvious selection for today there isn’t one for tomorrow. To narrow it down to one rider is incredibly difficult but I’ll stick my neck out on the line. Rohan Dennis will be sent off as a move to bait out other teams to work so that GVA will have an arm-chair ride behind. A combination of disorganisation and Dennis’ strength will see him hold on for a memorable win!
If you all could listen to this, then that’d be great 😉
Betting
A day for small stakes. Sit back and enjoy the action unfold. I’m covering a few options here!
Dennis 0.2pt EW @ 150/1 with Betfair
Holst Enger 0.1pt EW 125/1 with Betfair.
Coppel 0.1pt EW 250/1 with Paddy Power.
Hope you enjoyed the preview as usual and enjoy the stage wherever you’re watching it from tomorrow! Anyway,
Alaphilippe set the early benchmark but that was beaten by Froome, whose time stood all day until we got the rest of the GC favourites at the end. Contador put in a masterclass, toppling Froome and beating him by 13 seconds. Very ominous for the rest of the race!
Credit has to go to Richie Porte who finished second. In the preview I wrote him off, but it looks like I’m having to eat my words. Some humble pie will be consumed later!
Our pair of Martin and Alaphilippe ended up 4th and 5th respectively. Close, but no cigar. Starting a blog with a 4th place finish is becoming a common occurrence (Ludvigsson at the Giro). Have to say, I’m disappointed with Aru’s time but there’s still plenty of racing left to come. Onto tomorrow!
The Route
Nothing overly exciting here.
The usual morning break will build up a large advantage with the Pro-Conti teams being represented and one of them will pick up the KOM jersey. I say that’ll be Antoine Duchesne from Direct Energie.
A combination of Tinkoff and sprint teams will ensure the gap doesn’t get ridiculous and they’ll slowly be reeled in over the final 60km.
The finish in Saint-Vulbas is fairly straight forward.
As you can see, there are a few roundabouts in the final 5km but the last of those comes at 3km out. A few 90-degree turns follow but we have a long straight run in to the line. This sprint is all about speed and lead-out trains.
The Sprinters
Bouhanni and Kristoff have to come into this stage as the clear favourites. They’ve both recently shown form and in this type of pure top-end speed, flat sprint, they’re a class above the competition.
Bouhanni has his favoured #2 with him here Soupe. I expect the Cofidis train to be Vanbilsen -> Laporte -> Bozic -> Soupe -> Bouhanni. A solid lead-out train but by no means amazing, they don’t have the power to take it up too early. One thing is for sure, the Frenchman won’t go down without a fight.
Kristoff has Vicioso -> Morkov -> Haller -> Guarnieri. As we’ve seen in previous races; if Kristoff gets left at the front with 150m to go, then he’s very hard to come round!
They’ve both been going quite well recently, but on a bigger stage here, will they continue their good form or flop?
Away from the top 2 there are other fast riders here. A lot of them. Every team has a sprinter of sorts.
Trek are greedy and have two! Both Bonifazio and Theuns could compete here and have the closing speed to beat the favourites. The main issue with them is that they’ll both want to lead the team. They had the same issue at Scheldiprijs when both of them seemed to sprint with Theuns finishing 4th and Bonifazio 3rd. Therefore it’s impossible to call who’ll be sprinting. I hope for their sake that one of them gets leadership for this stage and the other for stage 4. A nice clear-cut decision from the Trek management is needed!
Away from Trek, young Irishman Sam Bennett has a decent turn of speed. He also has his key lieutenant with him Shane Archbold (a.k.a The Flying Mullet). Bennett has had an underwhelming season so far, could he turn the page here?
Mountain-goat one day, sprinter the next? Julian Alaphilippe will be Etixx’s hope for the sprint stages. He has very good TTers to put him in position behind Kristoff or Bouhanni. The question is if he has the speed to come round them? I think not.
Gerrans or Impey could get involved for Orica, while EBH will be Dimension Data’s man. However, I think he’ll be targeting stages later in the week. He doesn’t have the top end speed to win here.
Moreno Hofland will have Teunissen at hand to lead him out, possibly try to copy Lampre’s one man lead-out tactic. While GVA will be BMCs man for the fast stages.
Has Degenkolb recovered from his injury at the start of the year? He did well in California so looks to be heading in the right direction.
Lotto Soudal will count on the Belgian Jens Deubscherre.
IAM will have to decide between Holst Enger and Van Genechten for the sprints. A top 5 would be a good result for them.
Finally, Samuel Dumoulin has won two sprints on the bounce, can he manage something against a step up in opposition here?
So in summary, Kristoff & Bouhanni on paper are the best, but there are a plethora of riders ready to take the limelight.
Prediction
There will be a massive fight to get on the podium and we could even get a surprise winner, especially with neither of the favourites being overly convincing this season. However saying that, I think the feisty Frenchman has enough in the tank to win this one. He seems to be on better form on the pure flat sprints compared to Kristoff this year and is undoubtedly one of the fastest riders in the World if he’s up for it. He’ll want a win on home soil and on the big stage, reminding everyone that he’ll be there fighting at the Tour.
Betting
Back Bouhanni straight up for the win @3/1 (with Paddy Power) 2.5pts stake
As an outsider for the podium I fancy Bennett @33/1 with PP as well. 0.25pts EW
Hunt around when more bookies price up, there’s a chance you might get better odds.
*Adding two H2Hs as well with PP; Bouhanni ov Kristoff @ 11/8 and Bennett ov Hofland @ 11/8. 2pts Each*
Hope you enjoyed the preview as usual! It will be interesting to see how the sprint unfolds tomorrow with so many contenders. Anyway,
(Sorry. I had to get that joke out of the road at some point, may as well be the start!)
Route
Mountain TT, so uphill pretty much.
We get a flat first few hundred metres leading into a 6.1% section to start off with and after that it’s steep, very steep! The final section supposedly only averages 6.7% but this is due to a false flat finish. After the second kilometre the climb really averages 10.5%+, not very nice!
There’s nothing else to say really. It should be a joy to watch for us, but I’m sure a lot of the riders won’t be thinking the same.
Weather Watch
As I’m writing this it is currently raining in Les Gets and there is a chance that this weather will continue tomorrow.
Different websites are suggesting different times when the rain and thunderstorms will arrive.
Accuweather’s forecast. Taken at 4pm on Saturday.Worldweatheronline’s forecast. Taken at the same time.
It’s safe to assume we’ll probably get rain at some point tomorrow, with some suggesting more rain earlier, others suggesting the opposite. Who knows?!
There is a chance that start time might come in to play but I don’t think it will have that much of an effect. Everyone will have roughly similar conditions. If anything, it looks like the later starters will get a benefit.
Contenders
To win this stage you obviously have to climb well. However, it’s not a long Alpine climb, it’s much more like the short steep climbs that we see in Spain. This changes the dynamic of the winner ever so slightly. For example, I don’t think we’ll see Pinot win this. He’s much better on the longer, slightly more gentle climbs.
Contador and Froome head the betting and they’re two riders who could manage this type of effort. The former has done well on the short steep climbs of Spain and Froome has proved that he can manage the steep ramps when the Tour finished atop the Huy.
Away from the top 2 we have a whole host of riders who could give it a good go tomorrow. Porte is good at short sharp climbs and can sprint up them. Except this isn’t January and this isn’t Old Willunga Hill.
Yates being a Brit will enjoy this hill climb a lot and it should suit his punchy nature. The real question is if he’s in form. He didn’t look great last time we saw him race at the Tour de Yorkshire.
After Foliforov’s outstanding win at the Giro, one of his junior rivals could go well here, Louis Vervaeke. A top 5 would be a great result for the young man!
Anyone else listed on the image beside could have a chance of winning this. However, I’m going to highlight two who I think have the credentials to go very well here and challenge for the win.
First up is the youngster Julian Alaphilippe. Off the back of a great GC win over at the Tour of California he’ll be oozing with confidence and will want to show that he can compete with the World’s best.
He loves the steep gradients as is evident with his two 2nd places at Fleche. Furthermore, he flew up the Gibraltar Road climb over at the ToC. Admittedly, it wasn’t the strongest field but he looked so relaxed at the end. Suggesting he could have gone a lot deeper. He definitely could surprise the big guys here.
The other rider is his team-mate Dan Martin. Another man who is at home on the steep ramps. He’s not raced since LBL but that doesn’t concern me too much, he was excellent at the start of the season winning the first hill-top finish at Valenciana. Furthermore, he smoked the opposition up La Molina in Catalunya which is a similar climb to this. He probably won’t win the GC but he has a good chance to go into yellow here.
As you can see in the video above, the two Etixx riders off the front look sprightly. I’d suggest that they’re Martin and Alaphilippe.
Prediction
I think it’ll be hard to top the two main GC guys, with Contador probably being the most likely winner. However, as you may know by now if you’ve read a few of my previews, going for the favourite all the time isn’t my thing. So I say we get a Contador, Martin and Alaphilippe podium. It’s just over to the order and I think it’ll be the Irishman on the top step. This 10-15 minute effort looks like the ideal length for him and combined with its gradients, he definitely could surprise. Remember, this isn’t a normal TT!
Betting
I’m backing the two Etixx riders I’ve mentioned.
0.5pts EW on each.
Alaphilippe @ 18/1 with various sites
Martin @ 66/1 with Betfair or B365
Hope you all enjoyed the preview, any feedback would be great as usual.
We should be in for a great spectacle tomorrow, everything will be left out on that climb!
A week since the Giro has finished but it seems to have lasted a lot longer! There have been smaller races on mid-week, such as the Tour of Luxembourg but there has been nothing on TV. That will change come Sunday when we are treated to the annual pre-amble to the Tour with the Criterium du Dauphiné.
As I’ll be doing daily previews again for this race I won’t bother going into the stages in much detail here.
The Route
Prologue:
Definitely not what you’d expect if someone said a 3.9km prologue! Expect a few time gaps and maybe a few surprises. Some GC guys will love this, but some of the Ardennes riders could go well.
Stage 1:
Rolling start to the stage but should be kept together for a sprint. Bouhanni has to be favourite.
Stage 2:
First road stage hill-top finish. Not the toughest of climbs so there shouldn’t be many time gaps. A bunch sprint of GC favourites or a well-timed late attack the most likely outcome.
Stage 3:
Interesting stage, possibly first break day but looks most likely to be a reduced bunch sprint, or another late attack. Steve Cummings is here…
Stage 4:
If we didn’t get a sprint of sorts the previous day, we should here. The final Km rises ever so slightly, it’ll be a power sprint. Will the man smuggling chickens in his calves win here? *If you don’t know what I’m talking about, watch this*
Stage 5:
A harder mountain top finish than we had earlier in the week. The final climb isn’t the toughest in terms of average gradient and length, but it is very stop-start with several steep ramps. A punchy GC guy should go well here.
Stage 6:
The progression of difficulty of the mountain top finishes continues, this time on the cat-1 climb to Méribel. This should be where the GC is won.
Stage 7:
The GC might not have been won convincingly the previous day so time gaps could be small enough for this to become a very exciting GC stage. If not, should be one for the break.
The GC Contenders
⭐ ⭐ ⭐
There are two riders here who are head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of Grand Tour quality; Chris Froome and Alberto Contador.
Froome has had an underwhelming start to the season winning the GC at the Herald Sun Tour and a stage at the Tour de Romandie. Not the best start for the reigning TDF champion. However, his season is geared towards being in peak condition at the Tour and it properly starts here. He should at least podium and will probably accept nothing less than overall victory. Team Sky send what looks like the bulk of their Tour team and oh boy, it’s a strong one.
Contador has had a different approach and has raced a lot more than Froome so far this season. His progression in GC has been steady and impressive as well (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st). After having a poor TDF last year because of his Giro-Tour double attempt, he means business this time round! With the majority of Tour hopefuls riding this race (only Quintana and TVG missing), he’ll want to set out his stall as favourite for the Tour with a win here. He has a very good chance and probably has to start as favourite ahead of Froome.
⭐ ⭐
However, it’s not a Grand Tour and there are a few riders who will fancy their chances in this week-long race. Below Froome and Contador we have 3 riders who could feasibly challenge for the title. They are Thibaut Pinot, Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Pinot this season, he’s been thereabouts on GC when it’s mattered and has performed well against the World’s best on some of the mountain top finishes. His TTing has vastly improved this season but he won’t need them much as I assume they’ll be using road bikes in the prologue. If Contador and Froome mark each other out, I’m sure the Frenchman will be there waiting to take the reins.
Fabio Aru has had a quiet season so far this year, but let’s not forget he is a former Grand Tour winner, having won the Vuelta last year and an incredibly strong climber on his day. Having not competed since Amstel there is a big question mark over his form, but I expect him to turn up all guns blazing. He’ll want to dispel the rumours that Nibali will be co-leader with him at the Tour by going well here.
The real unknown phenomenon here is Mikel Landa. After dropping out of the Giro with illness he’ll want to bounce back strongly. If he’s recovered then he’ll be a great bonus to Team Sky and Froome and is quite easily another winner of this race. Will he work for Froome? Most likely.
⭐
Away from the riders above, there are a few names that can be thrown around (I’m just going down the betting odds). After all, we could have a Talansky style win again. Although I can’t see it.
Joaquim Rodriguez – Past it IMO. Might win a stage, not GC.
Richie Porte – Did OK at Paris Nice (3rd) and Catalunya (4th) but hasn’t raced since Romandie. I just can’t say he’ll put in a good performance with any conviction.
Romain Bardet – His development seems to have stagnated a bit and he’s been left behind by Pinot. Like JRod, he won’t win GC but maybe a stage.
Others who could Top 10? Mollema, Yates, Martin, Poels, Reichenbach. There are a lot of second-tier GC riders here, none of whom should challenge the Top 5.
Carlton Kirby Joker – Julian Alaphilippe.
Prediction
I can’t see past any of the top 5 that I’ve mentioned, they are the fairly obvious ones. I’ll narrow it down, suggesting that Landa will be a super-super-domestique for Froome, which leaves Froome, Contador, Pinot and Aru.
Being bold as per usual, El Pistolero wins this relatively comfortably. Aru and Pinot will round out the podium with the latter pipping Froome on the final day who falters and finishes 4th.
Betting
2.5pts WIN on Contador @ 3/1 (PP)
.75pt EW on Aru @ 12/1 (Betfair)
Hope you enjoyed this shortish GC preview. Any feedback would be great! I’ll be back with daily stage previews, starting Saturday evening for the following day’s prologue. Have a nice evening! Anyway,
*I apologise in advance if this preview seems more rushed than normal. I’m very hungover and also have to pack as I’m moving out of my flat tomorrow*
Today’s Recap
My oh my, what an exciting stage!
A real shame for Kruijswijk who loses the Maglia Rosa lead after falling on the descent over the Colle Dell’Agnello. Apparently he’s a bit bashed up, sore ribs etc but will carry on tomorrow. If he’s as sore as he says then he’ll be looking behind, protecting his podium spot, rather than ahead of him.
Unfortunately, Zakarin had to abandon after a bad crash on the same descent. It’s a suspected broken collarbone, nothing too serious. It says a lot for the strength of these guys that a broken collarbone is regarded as a minor injury.
Back at the business end of the race, Nibali dropped Chaves on the final climb and rode away to a superb solo win, destroying the field and setting up a very exciting final day tomorrow. A lot of people will argue that it was bad etiquette that Nibali pushed on after Kruijswijk’s fall. However, in my opinion he was perfectly fine to do so. It was Kruijswijk’s own fault that he crashed, it wasn’t a mechanical or someone else bringing him down. That’s just the unfortunate side of bike racing.
Chaves a.k.a the Smiling Assassin (very apt after today, going in for the kill after Kruijswijk’s misfortunes) moves into the leaders jersey ahead of Nibali. Leaving the GC looking like this going into the final proper day.
The Route
All guns blazing from the start, and a very tough day to finish the GC battle with. At only 134km long, it’s going to be fast and furious. Some riders will be very concerned about time limits.
The climbing action starts straight away with the Col de Vars. 18.2km long at an average gradient of 6%, max gradients of 13%. I hope the riders have eaten their Weetabix in the morning!
Next on the menu is the famous Col de la Bonette. At 22.2km long with an average gradient of 6.7% (max 10%) it’s a proper Alpine climb and energy sapper. One that Vincenzo Nibali will love.
The final Cat-1 climb of the day comes with just under 30km, the Colle Della Lombarda. Another brute of a climb at 19.8km in length and an average gradient of 7.6% (max of 12%), we’re bound to see splits here, especially if there has been no action on the previous climbs.
Once over the summit, the riders face a fast descent, before a final kicker up to the line.
It may well be that the winner of this stage wins the Giro.
Who are the stage contenders?
The last mountain stage of a Grand Tour often lends itself to a breakaway win, but there is no chance that is happening tomorrow. With the profile climbing from Km 0, all hell is going to break loose, with Astana trying their best to put Chaves into difficulty.
I can’t see who would be given freedom. Those 10 bonus seconds on the line could be the difference between the top 2 on the podium.
Chaves has looked so strong going uphill this race, but faltered a little today. He was made to do a lot of the work by Nibali and others throughout the race. Maybe that took it out of him at the end? He won’t go down without a fight tomorrow.
Whereas Nibali has remarkably came back from the doldrums and now looks the strongest in the race. Is he strong enough to put the required time into the Colombian?
As for the others, I don’t think Kruijswijk will recover for tomorrow unfortunately, and Valverde and Majka can’t match the top 2.
If we somehow do get a break, look to those who’ve been active so far. Potentially Ulissi and Nieve again, with the young American Dombrowski being a strong break candidate as well.
Prediction
As I’ve expressed above, I can’t see past a GC winner for this stage. Going off of recent form (i.e. today) I can’t see past Nibali. The Shark will smell blood and take back-to-back stage wins!
The big question remains, will he take the GC too?! I can’t call it, it’s going to very close!
Betting
Keep your money in your pocket and just enjoy the race!
Again, apologies for the shorter preview. I don’t really have much to say for this stage, and as expressed above, I’m not feeling too jolly/need to pack. I should be back with a more flowery and wordy preview on Saturday night. Although that will be late as Saturday evening will be family time, so I probably won’t have it out until 11pm GMT. Hope you all enjoyed today’s stage, we should be in for more of the same tomorrow! Anyway,
Roger Kluge had a different idea, escaping excellently within the final kilometre to steal the win from the sprinters. He followed after Pozzato attacked just before him. I have to say, the rider from Willier did a great job on the front once Pozzato attacked. He kind of veered across the road and blocked the sprint trains into the final corner. This disorganised them and Modolo and Nizzolo were left without any team-mates. Katusha attempted to bring it back but it was too late. Kluge had caught and dropped Pozzato. He even had enough time to free-wheel and celebrate at the end!
A day before leaving from Muggiò the two main Italian sprinters get mugged off. Not as poetic as The Snail winning a day after National Escargot Day but it will do!
I have to say, I was surprised at the size of the breakaway, I thought that it would have been larger. Was disappointed Lampre weren’t gutsy and tried to get someone in it, but from very early on it was clear that both they and Trek were happy to duke it out for the sprint/stage win.
Lampre leave the stage empty-handed in that sense, but also in the Maglia Rossa competition as Nizzolo won (behind the break) both the Int Sprints and then finished 2nd on the stage, increasing his points lead even more ahead of Ulissi. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nizzolo try to go in the break tomorrow to secure some more points.
Maglia Rossa classification after today’s stage
The Route
The longest stage of the race in the final week of a Grand Tour, before the two tough mountain stages. The Giro organisers are cruel!
A very flat opening to the stage. This is one to tune into for the last 50km.
Although the fight to get in the break will be incredible and no doubt we’ll see a very fast opening to the race.
The race really kicks off with the climb up Pramartino (4.7km long, 10.6% average gradient, a crazy 17% max). This will decimate whoever is up front from the break away and I can imagine we’ll only see a group of 3 at most left cresting this climb together. Behind we could well possibly see some GC fireworks but with two big days ahead, and with Kruijswijk looking so strong, I don’t think so.
So after this it appears like a nice easy run in to the finish, or so I thought! The profile is once again deceptive (classically Italian) and in the final 3km there is a big old wall.
Final 3km run inAforementioned big old wall.
At 500m in length and averaging 13.2% in gradient, with a section topping out at 20%, this will decimate what’s left of the break. And it will be every man for themselves and only the strongest will crest it at the front. Once over, they’ll have a steep descent before a section of flat and the run in to the line.
Weather Watch
Looks set to be another nice day out on the bike for the riders, with very little chance of rain.
Forecast for Pinerolo
How will the stage pan out?
Break. 100%.
If Valverde hadn’t won the stage the other day, then this possibly could have been held together for a GC battle royale, but they’ll instead keep their powder dry for Friday and Saturday.
As I said above, the fight to get in the break won’t be easy because a lot of the teams will want to be represented. Furthermore, we’ll inevitably see a good mix of riders make the break due to the terrain we start in. The strong rouleurs are more likely to make the break because of the flat start, in comparison to the punchier climbers who could actually win the stage.
Break Contenders
Much like in earlier previews, look to those who are attacking and far down on GC. There are lots of them! Again, like other previews I’m just going to select a few riders who could give it a go and look at them in-depth. This time, I’m going to go for 4 riders!
First up is;
Michele Scarponi. In what is potentially his last season in the professional peloton (he’s out of contract at the end of the year), he might well be let off the reigns here. Arguably one of the riders of the race so far, he’s been incredibly strong in support of Nibali. However, his leader has faltered and Astana may look to the Italian veteran to get them something out of the race. He’s far enough down on GC and is definitely climbing well enough to get rid of his breakaway companions on the climbs. He’ll be a serious threat if he makes the break. If not him, Astana might turn to Kangert.
Francesco Bongiorno could be another breakaway contender. He finished 3rd on a stage at the Giro back in 2014, up the famous Monte Zoncalon (Stage 20). Last year he managed to finish 2nd on Stage 18, will he continue his progression this year and finish on the top step? He hasn’t really done anything of note this Giro, or season in fact. But he is always one who will give it a go on the tough climbs.
Bongiorno’s hair resembling the nature of the final climb
Alexander Foliforov. Already a stage winner here, the young and talented Russian promised that we’ll see more from him this race. Could tomorrow be that day? A stage like this very much resembles a cronoescalata, with only two short climbs to negotiate. It looks like an ideal stage for him to motor away on the steep ramps of the two climbs, just like he did in the time trial. If he has the same form as he did that day, no one will see him again until the finish line!
Will we see this man on the podium again?
The final rider is another who’s also already won a stage this Giro: Giulio Ciccone. Another Bardiani rider, they’re sure to have numbers in the break. Ciccone as was proven on Stage 10 is an incredibly talented climber and not a bad descender. Two key attributes if you want to win this stage. If he’s recovering well from the build of fatigue, then he will be a real danger-man if he gets in the break.
All of these riders of course will require some luck to get into the break of the day, as per usual. It’ll be interesting to see the mix of riders we get up the road. I expect Ulissi probably to give it a go, as this stage looks very good for him and Nizzolo will try to follow him to take the sprint points at the TVs.
Prediction
I’m sure we get a break win tomorrow, with Ulissi being the obvious candidate. However, as you may have gathered by now, I don’t like going for the clear favourite so instead I’m going to go with the old Italian veteran, Scarponi. I hope Astana (and the peloton) let him go up the road and with Frankie cheering him on from him, he’ll steal the win!
Maybe he’ll be nicknamed “Il pirata” afterwards, all he’ll need is an eyepatch!
Betting
Another day for smallish stakes. 0.25pt WIN on those I’ve mentioned.
*At the time of writing, only PaddyPower have prices up so the blog will be based off of them. Like usual, shop around later and you might get a better price!*
Scarponi @66/1
Foliforov @66/1
Bongiorno @90/1
Ciccone @90/1
Hope you enjoyed this preview, hopefully one of the guys above makes it into the break. Otherwise, it will be a very dull stage. Make sure you tune in for those final 50km, they’re at least going to be exciting. Anyway,
Well, the idea of a breakaway succeeding was quickly thrown out the window and we got some more GC fireworks on today’s stage. It looked for a while that Chaves was going to be the major loser, with the race splitting massively on the first climb and the young Colombian being left in the second group on the road. However, it ended up being Nibali who was the main loser as those in the front group rode away from him, and Chaves who came up from behind, dropped him too. Up ahead, Valverde took a good win, meaning he now has stage victories in all of the Grand Tours. Kruijswijk was second and Zakarin 3rd.
Annoyingly all three of the riders I mentioned in the preview were up the road at some point. Boswell was apparently in a big move at the start of the day that was brought back by Nippo. (Here’s a link to an interview with him post stage.)
Kudus escaped briefly along with Pirazzi and one other rider I can’t remember just at the bottom of the first climb of the day. They were quickly brought to heel as well.
And of course Dombrowski had made it into the elite group of 10 who had escaped up the road. Then he lost contact with the group on the flat. Some people are speculating that it was team orders, but it looked to me as if he’d taken a big turn at the front swung over and nobody came through. At this point there was a slight gap between the first five in the group and the second five. After Dombrowski had swung off to the side of the road I think he was caught napping and the remaining four powered away to catch up with those in-front. However, that’s all speculation/my opinion, so I guess we’ll have to wait for a press release from Cannondale to see exactly what happened.
Anyway, onto tomorrow’s stage!
The Route
Bit lumpy then very flat!
Nothing much to discuss here, with only one cat-4 climb on the route and that shouldn’t cause the peloton any difficulty. Cunego will be looking forward to a day where he can have a rest and not try to get in the breakaway.
The actual finish isn’t that difficult either. The organisers have been kind to the peloton/sprinters here.
So a nailed-on sprint then?
Well you’d assume so. Both Modolo and Nizzolo haven’t won a stage yet and will be keen to get one in the bag before the final stage in Turin. Their main rivals have all went away, leaving them as easily the fastest sprinters here. There are some other teams with second-rate sprint options but they don’t compare to the two Italians.
A two-horse race then.
Well…
Team Tactics
If there were more top-tier sprinters here then it’s a sprint day guaranteed. However, with there only being the two, other teams aren’t going to work to help bring the break back. In fact, the best move for them is to get a rider in the break, so that they can save themselves for the finale.
Lampre only have 8 riders, but they won’t use up Ulissi or Ferrari for the chase. Minus Modolo, they only have 5 left and they’re not exactly the strongest rouleurs in the World, they’re much more suited to hilly routes. Plus, we’ve seen Lampre cock-up a situation like this before (Final stage at the Giro last year).
Trek only have 6 riders, but again they won’t use up Alafaci (who I assume will be doing lead-out duties with BVP gone). Leaving them 4 riders to commit to a chase. They have stronger riders on the flat but will be shouldered with more of the work due to Lampre’s incompetences and the fact Nizzolo is the faster of the two.
Other teams are supposedly targeting the sprints, Dimension Data and Giant Alpecin namely. But as I said above, I don’t see them contributing to a chase when they’re really fighting for third place. Unless of course they miss the break of the day and get made to work on the front.
The real interesting team tactic for me though is how Lampre are approaching the Maglia Rossa competition.
Current top 10 of the Maglia Rossa
After today’s stage, Ulissi has moved within striking distance of Nizzolo. Modolo really seems out of the picture and would need to win tomorrow and in Turin, hoping that Nizzolo does terribly in both sprints. I get the impression that all of Lampre’s eggs are in Ulissi’s basket. Ulissi I can envisage going on to win the stage into Pinerolo which would gain him some more points but with the points being weighted towards the sprint stages, he would need Nizzolo not to score any tomorrow. (Or very few).
Now, Ulissi could go in the break and try to take the 40 points on offer at the intermediate sprints, but that would be foolish. Doing so would mean Trek definitely would chase the break down, resulting in a sprint of some sort at the end and more points for Nizzolo. What Lampre really need to do is get someone in the BOTD and not chase, hoping that the likes of DD and Giant get someone in there too. Leaving all the onus on Trek to do the work. It’s a risky tactic, but after a tough, all guns blazing day like today, then it might just come off. The only thing with this approach is that Modolo has to be on side 100% and I think he will be. Sacrificing his own personal ambitions for the good of the team. Sprinters aren’t all that selfish, are they?
What does this all mean?
On a day where most will say sprint, I’m going to be my usual bold self and say a break makes it. (Because hey, it’s definitely worked so far this Giro…! 😂 😂 😂).
As said above, there will be too many teams that don’t want Modolo and Nizzolo dragged to the line as their rider will be sprinting for third. They’ll have a much better chance of the win from the break. Plus, with Lampre (and Ulissi’s) eyes fixed firmly on the Maglia Rossa they won’t want to gift Nizzolo 50 or 40 points.
Prediction
If it’s hard enough predicting who’ll get in a break on a mountain stage, it’s nigh on impossible picking someone on a flat day with any confidence. The wild-card teams will feature, along with those who don’t have a stage yet. The IAM boys will be keen to get in the break to show their worth to new employers. Any Italian will fancy their chances. The list is endless. Well, once you go through all the riders I suppose it ends, but I digress…
I’m going to choose my rider, purely for the poetic nature of it all.
On National Escargot Day, Van Zyl never managed to get in the break. Like all snails, he’s a bit slow to the party and will make the break a day late, taking a most unlikely, but memorable victory.
Let’s just hope he’s not feeling sluggish after today…
Betting
I can’t really advise bets for a stage like this. It should really be a no bet day, unless you want to back some breakaway candidates. I’ll probably have a look at the exchanges and see if I can get some riders at 500 or 600/1 + for fun.
But for a bit of blog fun, we’ll go with the man who’s (100%, no doubt about it, positively) going to win the stage.
0.1pt on Van Zyl @200/1 PP.
Hope you enjoyed the racing today, because we could be in for a bit of a snooze fest tomorrow. As always, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,
Well, lets start of with stage 15 and a very unexpected winner: Alexander Foliforov. I did not see that coming! Although from early on, it looked like his time was a good one and we saw GC rider after GC rider fail to beat it. Kruijswijk came agonisingly close, losing out by under a second.
Our man Chaves finished in 6th, not good enough for a winner, but good enough to move him up to 2nd on GC. Nibali seemed to be struggling and also had mechanical problems, costing him even more time, dropping him down to 3rd on GC.
I’m not going to slander or accuse Foliforov here, I’ll let the young man enjoy his win and if something gets revealed later then…
The TT leaves the GC in a position I don’t think many expected going into the final week. Kruijswijk first with a healthy lead over Chaves and Nibali. It will be interesting to see how his LottoJumbo team manages. They don’t have the star riders that Astana or Movistar have, with Roglic and Battaglin as his two main support riders. So I fear that Kruijswijk could become isolated quite quickly in some of the stages. However, he’s been in that situation all Giro and coped okay until now, but it is a different task having to do all the chasing by yourself!
Top 20 on GC after the TT
The final week, especially the latter stages, should be very exciting as everyone has to try to gain back time, therefore we should see some attacking riding. Some co-operation between those behind to isolate Krujswijk will no doubt happen.
Before we get to that point, let’s talk about tomorrow’s stage.
The Route
After the rest-day the riders will be greeted with a stage profile that they’ll look at with trepidation. At only 132km long and categorised as 3-star in difficulty it doesn’t, on paper at least, appear too bad.
Stage Profile
However, it will no doubt be a very fast day as a lot of the riders will want to get in the break because that seems the most likely outcome for a stage winner. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the break finally get away after the 50km mark. That is of course unless everyone is tired from the past few days and a group gets away early. LottoJumbo would love that!
Furthermore, as I said after the last rest-day, the riders won’t know how their bodies will react. Landa was the major casualty of a rest-day bug that he picked up!
Anyway, onto the actual route itself.
The first climb, Passo della Mendola is 14.8km long averaging 6.6% with a 10% max ramp.
This climb isn’t too tough for the riders, but if the GC guys decide to try to isolate Kruijswijk early then we could be in for some major rider implosions. However, I think we’ll more than likely see our BOTD build up a substantial lead here.
After Mendelpass we get a long, slightly lumpy, descent before reaching the penultimate climb of the day: Fai della Paganella.
Another Cat-2, but this one is a lot more testy. Officially, it is 10.2km long averaging 7.4%, with a max ramp of 15%. However, the average gradient is a bit skewed because of a false flat section that we have for around 1.5km. Therefore, the average gradient on the first part of the climb is closer to 8%. That steep ramp at the end could be a launchpad for some late attacks.
Once over the climb we have a fast descent before the final kick up to the line.
“The final 10 km are clearly divided into two halves: first a fast-running descent (4 km) on wide roads with sharp downhill gradients, then a mild climb (6 km), growing steeper, up to 2 km from the finish. Next comes a false-flat uphill drag. The finish line lies on an 80-m long and 7.0-m wide asphalt home stretch, running gently uphill.” (Road Book extract)
If there is a group of riders together by this point, expect attacks on the final climb. Unless of course if someone is confident of their sprinting ability then they’ll sit in and follow the moves.
How will the stage pan out?
As I’ve said above, I think this stage lends itself to a breakaway. Well, I’m 90% sure it does. The reason for this is that the climbs aren’t too tough for the GC guys to make any differences so I think they’ll keep their powder-dry for later stages.
However, there is a small chance that they go full-gas to isolate Kruijswijk, but I don’t see it. Or, the likes of Movistar and Lampre try to keep the race together in the hope that Valverde and Ulissi can sprint for the win, with a finish that looks to suit them.
Who are the breakaway contenders?
As said in earlier previews, the contenders have to be strong climbers if they want to win. Furthermore, they can’t be too close on GC. We now get into the stage of the race where riders and teams get very protective of their top 10 on GC. With the way the GC is set up, there is a big gap between 12th place (Uran – 8’19 behind) and 13th place (Visconti – 16’31), so it is unlikely we’ll see the likes of Dimension Data chasing if Visconti or Pirazzi get away. However, if the gap to the break gets too high then they’ll have to!
Like before, I’m not going to list all of the options for a break as I could be here for a long time! Instead, I’m going to highlight 3 riders who might give it a go.
Joe Dombrowski. – Uran’s lieutenant could be given the freedom to go in the break here, with the stage not set to be a GC battle and with Uran going in the wrong direction in terms of the classification. Dombrowski seems to be riding into the race very well and put in a good performance in the TT, finishing 8th. He was one of the fastest up the Passo Giau according to Strava on stage 14, so is clearly going well. Furthermore, he is known to be one of the biggest engines in the peloton in terms of numbers and watts that he can put out. That’s why Team Sky signed him up back in 2013. However, he didn’t fit into their style of riding so has ended up at the more quirky Cannondale, where he slowly seems to be finding his feet. If he makes the break then he’s a very dangerous candidate.
Ian Boswell. – Another American who could go well in tomorrow’s stage. I’ve highlighted him for the break in a preview earlier in the race but he didn’t manage to get into the break that day. Like Dombrowski, he put in a solid TT, finishing 15th overall so he has some form. He’s not been active at all with his highest finishing position on a stage (aside from the TT) being 44th on stage 4. Saving energy for later in the race? I think the TT was a test of his form and he’ll be happy with the result he achieved and will be confident going into this week. Finishing 3rd in a Vuelta stage from a breakaway last year (behind Landa and Aru), highlights that he has the abilities to go well here.
And finally, my favourite of the three picks (purely for its reasoning)…
Merhawi Kudus. – The young Eritrean has been touted for great things in the future by his team Dimension Data. He finished 6th on the Green Mountain back at the start of the season and in 2014 he came 2nd on GC at the Tour of Langkawi beating a certain Esteban Chaves (4th) and Steven Kruijswijk (7th). Clearly, he is a very talented cyclist. Like those listed above, he’s failed to excite anyone at this Giro sitting 44th on GC, over an hour down on Kruijswijk. Saving energy maybe? What for, you say?
Well, do you remember what happened on Mandela Day at the Tour last year?…
Could his soft-pedalling at the Giro all be a ruse, so that he can make it in the break tomorrow? I hope so and no doubt the Eritrean cycling fans would love that too!
Special mention must go to Johan Van Zyl or “The Snail” as he’s otherwise known. The 24th of May is also National Escargot Day so he, as a breakaway expert, might find himself in the break. Although I fear that the climbs will be too tough for him to hold on and take a win.
Prediciton
As I said above, I think tomorrow is a breakaway day!
We’ll see a hotly contested battle from the majority of the peloton to try to get into the move that stays away. This involves a certain element of luck,but persistence also pays off.
After dissuading myself from backing Dumoulin at the start of the Giro because everything would be “too Disney”, I’m making a complete U-turn on that principle (mainly because I’m in a good mood) and we’ll get our Eritrean winner on Eritrean Independence day. Merhawi Kudus takes the stage, and everyone lives happily ever after…
Betting
A day not to get overly involved with, pick a few breakaway lottery selections for fun. I’m just going for the 3 I’ve mentioned above.
Dombrowski 0.3pts @66/1 with PP. I’d take the 50 available at Coral. (He is also available at 40s on the Betfair Exchange – that’s as low as I’d go)
Boswell 0.3pts @100/1 with PP. I’d take the 50-66/1 available with others.
Kudus 0.1pts @150/1 with PP or 125/1 with B365. This price was only available when I tweeted it out, but I’m including it because I tweeted it out. I would still put a little stake on him at 66/1 you can get with Betfair Sportsbook.
You might find that these guys will be priced more favourable on the BF Exchange so keep your eyes peeled.
I’ll probably tweet something out in-play if none of the above make it into the break. After all, in-play is King.
Hope you enjoyed this preview. It was a bit more long-winded this time but that’s because I felt I had more to say. Again, any RTs, Likes, or general discussion Twitter would be great. I hope we get an entertaining stage tomorrow! Anyway,
Well, that turned out to be an incredibly exciting stage in the end! For long periods of time I thought it was going to be another defensive race from the favourites and it looked like it was going to be a bore-fest. That was until we hit the brutal Passo Giau. Astana took over from Movistar and set a blistering tempo, shelling riders out the back. Amador lost contact but regained it on the descent.
On the next (and final) climb once Scarponi had finished his job, Nibali attacked. The GC favourites followed, apart from Amador and Valverde who were both dropped. A couple of counter-attacks later saw Kruijswijk, Nibali and Chaves clear. They worked well for a bit, but Kruijswijk soon attacked again and only Chaves could follow. Those two powered away on the climb (although Nibali did well to stay close-ish), and caught up with 2nd and 3rd on the road at the summit. A frantic descent and flat chase saw them catch lone escapee Atapuma in the final 3km. Preidler took up the sprint from far out, but Chaves (and Kruijswijk) came round him in the final 150m to take the win. The smiling assassin strikes again.
Nibali put in a great descent and effort on the flat to only lose 37 seconds on the stage, the rest of the GC guys were at least 2mins 30secs down. So it leaves the GC looking like this going into a crucial stage tomorrow:
The Route
Three words every cycling fan loves to here and I’m sure three words that the majority of cyclists despise: Mountain Time Trial.
A mountain TT returns to the Giro after a years absence, last featuring in the race back in 2014, when Quintana won the climb, and probably the Strava to boot, up to Cima Grappa.
The organisers have been kinder this year, as it’s not as tough as Cima Grappa, but it is still a grippy test for the riders.
Whole route profileThe climb proper – after the intermediate time check
“The stage is an uphill individual time trial. After a first false-flat drag (1,800 m), the route climbs steadily over the next 9 km, with an average 8.3% gradient. The road is wide and well paved. Straight stretches alternate with hairpins having a high bend radius. Split time is taken at km 4.4.” (Road book extract)
As you can see, the climb starts off relatively mundanely until we reach the intermediate check point. Hereafter, it averages 8.6% for 6.4km. Not the most difficult climb, but it will be a challenge after today’s GC fireworks!
Weather Watch
A sunny glorious day, everyone should get the same conditions.
The only concern might be the wind, but it appears that it’s coming from the same direction and the speed doesn’t change much throughout the afternoon.
Who are the stage contenders?
One thing to consider is if anyone will actually use a TT bike. It was worth it back in 2014 because there was a longer flat section before the climb started, so the riders changed bikes after the first time checkpoint (before the start of the climb). Considering there is only 1.8km of false flat here, I doubt we’ll see anyone use one. Therefore, this eliminates the advantage that some riders would have had by riding better TT machines.
I would not be surprised to see the top 3 on GC be the top 3 on the stage tomorrow. It looks like the bookies think the same, with Paddy Power pricing them up as follows (image on the left). I can’t fault their logic either. I’m struggling really to think who will challenge the top 3.
Majka maybe? He was the one closest to following them on the final climb and he can put in a solid TT.
Zakarin? Was flying in the rolling TT, but has looked out of sorts since his crash during it. He was with Majka today.
Uran was following with Zakarin but then went pop too. Nothing convinces me he’ll challenge here.
Valverde and Amador? I wouldn’t dare go near them after their implosion today.
Jungels? This TT is a different kettle of fish to the one he went to so well in, earlier in this race. If this was a one-week race he could maybe compete. But he finished 6mins+ down today, so I think he’s burnt out a bit.
Henao did an okay performance back in 2014, finishing 8th on that stage. A top 5 would be a good result.
Of the non-GC guys who could go best? Nieve and Roglic on paper probably look the best. Nieve has looked very solid on the climbs. He finished 3’52 down today, offering his support to Sebastian Henao and his efforts for the Youth Jersey.
Roglic: 2nd in the first TT, 1st in the 2nd TT, can he do a repeat performance here? He was going well on the steep climbs earlier in the year and has obviously proved during this race that he can TT. Only concern is that he went down the other day and hasn’t seemed as strong since.
The other big concern with backing non-GC guys on a day like this is that they might not give it 100%, and just take it as another “rest-day”. Well, as much of a rest as an uphill 10km effort is!
Therefore I say we get the 1-2-3 on GC as 1-2-3 on the podium tomorrow. I’m just struggling to decide what order.
Chaves is the weakest normal TTer, but as I’ve said earlier, this is no normal TT. In fact, up until today he looked the best on the climbs. I’m sure he’ll cope just fine tomorrow!
Kruijswijk has now joined him at the top of the pile. He looked very strong when dropping Nibali, but Chaves came across to him relatively easily. Kruijswijk is the better guy on the flat, so he might gain a few seconds there over Chaves. It will be close.
And then there’s the Shark. He went pop on the final climb, but limited the time-gap fairly well and used his descending skills to close the gap. He brought it back even more on the flat, but I think that’s because the two ahead of him stopped working that well with each other. That work on the flat shows that he’s still relatively strong. But on reflection, his attacks from yesterday might have been those of panic, because he’s not as good as he should be.
Prediction
As I missed out on him today and he seems to be the best climber in the race, I say the Smiling Assassin makes it 2 from 2 tomorrow, with Kruijswijk 2nd and Nibali 3rd. Simples.
Betting
With there being some room for error, if you can find Chaves at 4/1 or higher, then back him EW. As you should be able to get your stake back when he at least podiums.
I’ve backed him 5pts EW at 9/2 but that price has gone now. So my official blog bet is 5pts at 4/1 EW (as I’m sure someone will make him that price). If he’s not that price, then a 2.5pt straight up bet will suffice, because there is no value backing him EW under 4/1.
*I’ll update this (and my Twitter later) if I find somewhere that he is over 4/1)*
*UPDATE – 9/2 IS OFFICIAL BLOG BET ^^ *
Hope you all enjoyed today’s stage and this preview! As usual, any feedback or discussion would be great. Get a few beers in for tomorrow, sit-back, and relax, watching the riders giving it their all in the Race of Truth. Anyway,
As you can see, there are a few roundabouts in the final 5km but the last of those comes at 3km out. A few 90-degree turns follow but we have a long straight run in to the line. This sprint is all about speed and lead-out trains.
not be surprised to see the top 3 on GC be the top 3 on the stage tomorrow. It looks like the bookies think the same, with Paddy Power pricing them up as follows (image on the left). I can’t fault their logic either. I’m struggling really to think who will challenge the top 3.
MyTwoSpokesWorth 