Tour de France 2018 Stage 6 Preview: Brest -> Mûr de Bretagne Guerlédan

Today’s Recap

The stage reaffirmed what we already know: Sagan is the man.

Despite the best efforts of the morning break things were controlled well by BMC and a few other teams and with no one wanting to take a risk with an early attack, things were left until the final climb and sprint to the line. Gilbert opened the taps up at the bottom and had a little bit of a gap was closed down first by Simon and then GVA. Maybe if the Cofidis rider hadn’t pulled then the former World Champion might just have stayed away. GVA came to the front to control things and started the sprint from too far out but he had no other choice really. Consequently, it was perfectly set up for Sagan who came around the yellow jersey with ease and managed to hold off a late charge from Colbrelli (again) fairly comfortably.

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Gilbert refound his legs again in the closing metres and managed to sneak a third place. A case of what might have been for him if he had waited until the sprint? With the way Sagan rode the last kilometre then it would have been very hard for anyone to beat him today though. A special shout out must go to Sky as they effectively set things up perfectly for him by controlling the final 10kms.

Will we see a similar result tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A day with less vertical gain than this afternoon but it features a tougher climb at the end: the famous Mûr de Bretagne.

This stage is all about the final 20kms or so. As per usual, I’ve made a profile that you can view here.

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The road drags for around 3.2km (3% average) before the riders tackle the Mur for the first time. The crest of that first ascent comes with 15.5km to go – too far out for an attack? Once over the top the road heads downwards before kicking up again where the bonus second sprint just happens to be conveniently placed. That point comes atop a 1.3km climb which averages 6.3%.

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Nothing too crazy but it could stretch things out if it is raced at a pace and if some riders want to go for those seconds.

A long but shallow 8km descent follows the rider as they take a turn off the main road and onto a slightly narrower stretch of asphalt. With only 4kms to go a small bump (1.3km at 4.3%) awaits the riders as they skirt round the outside of town before a small descent and the rise up to the finish.

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As you can see, the steepest ramps come in the first half where there is a section of 700m at 11%. It then gradually starts to flatten out as they approach the finish. When the race was here in 2015 we saw some probing attacks on the steeper slopes from Vuillermoz, Yates and Geschke but they were never given much leeway as Froome dragged them back to heel and set tempo. Vuillermoz then sensed his moment as the gradient just started to ease with 700m to go and flew the coop as everyone looked around. We could well see something similar happen this year.

However the main difference is this year they face the ascent twice and there is more climbing in the closing stages, 540m over the 23km according to Strava.

How will the stage pan out?

Will we see the GC teams ride the first ascent hard in an effort to try to rid Sagan from the group? Will we see a slow pace with everything being saved for the finale?

I don’t really know what will happen, this is a difficult one to read.

Looking back at the past two finishes here in 2011 and 2015, the first group home on those days has been 9 riders and 27 riders respectively, although in 2011 there were almost 40 riders who were within 10 seconds of the winner but there were significant enough splits in the group to warrant time gaps.

Given the harder approach this year, I think we might see a group of 20 come to the line together, if not fewer and we might see some splits. All of the GC riders will need to be attentive.

Also, on current form there is a very good chance that Sagan will make it up the climb and go for the sprint. He was 4th here in 2015. Will the two ascents take it out of him? Not many will fancy dragging him to the line anyway.

Yellow Jersey Battle.

Realistically the top 8 on GC at the start of tomorrow’s stage could take yellow at the end of it. This means that they are more likely to attack but it also means that they will be marked more by their opposition. We saw that today when Gilbert was barely given any room by Van Avermaet as he didn’t want to relinquish the jersey. I think we’ll see the Quick Step duo attack again but they won’t be given the freedom to go for the win, maybe.

I think we once again could see a bit of an outsider take home the win, just like Vuillermoz did in 2015, so I’m going to suggest a couple of names. Remember, this list is not extensive, there are of course stage favourites like Sagan, Valverde, Martin, Alaphilippe and Gilbert but I don’t need to tell you anything about them!

Breton Boys

Warren Barguil.

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One of the stand out riders of last year’s Tour, he has had a bit of a dud season so far in 2018 with no real results to shout home about. Local to the area though, he will desperately want to impress and tomorrow offers him a better opportunity than today. The steeper climb should suit his abilities well and if he gets the jump on the peloton then many won’t chase him because he is no danger for the overall. He’s got quite a handy sprint on him too so if a group sneaks away somewhere other than the final ascent of the Mûr then he will take his chances in a 4-up sprint etc. Either that or he just rolls home in 23rd.

David Gaudu.

Not here to go for any form of GC placement, the former Tour de l’Avenir winner has been given a free role to chase stages. Having already shipped a handy 6’49 on the opening few days, I would be very surprised to see any GC contenders chase him down if he gives it a dig. We’ve seen in Fleche Wallonne that Gaudu can go very well on the steep ramps so the opening kilometre of the Mûr will be music to his ears. He will probably have to arrive alone but you never know, he is an exceptional talent.

Prediction

Neither of them to win though and I’ll go with an Ag2R to rider to make it “back-to-back” victories. That man is Pierre Latour.

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We’ll see a few attacks that will be brought back before Latour launches the final killer blow. He’s been in sparkling form this year so far and his win in the French TT championships was nothing short of spectacular – that early season form is clearly back. Finishing attentively in 13th place today would suggest he is over the opening day crash that saw him lose 2 minutes. Ironically, that will help him win tomorrow as he is not an immediate threat on GC and with Bardet and Vuillermoz hindering any chase he will arrive solo to the line.

Betting

1pt WIN Latour @ 125/1

0.5pt WIN Barguil @ 80/1

0.5pt WIN Gaudu @ 100/1

All with Bet365

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France 2018 Stage 5 Preview: Lorient -> Quimper

Today’s Recap

It finished in a bunch sprint, just, after the break of the day were caught just under 2kms to go. The frantic chase to catch them combined with the wide open road saw some riders go down as people tried to move up, with Zakarin being the main GC loser, shipping a shade under a minute.

The sprint was really messy but it was Gaviria who came out on top again thanks to some great work from Richeze, with Sagan and Greipel rounding out the podium.

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Will the fast Colombian be a feature tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A day where a lot of things could potentially happen, it looks as if the route has taken inspiration from the Tour du Finistère but has made the parcours a lot more difficult. There are no massive climbs or anything overly challenging gradient wise, but the constant up and down on narrow roads might make things nervous.

As you can see on the profile, the final 50km of the day are very undulating and include two Cat-3 climbs along with many small uncategorised rises. Potential places for a counter attack depending on the race situation? Interestingly, the time bonus sprint comes at the top of a hill, the Côte de la chappelle de la Lorette which itself averages a very punchy 9.1% for 700m.

I’ve made a Veloviewer profile of the final 15km that you can view here.

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The first rise on the road is the Bonus sprint point and it features ramps of almost 15% on narrow roads. I’m intrigued to see if any of the GC contenders will try to push on and take a few seconds. Will it be worth the effort or will they even get the freedom to do so?

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A small descent and another short ramp follow before several kilometres of flat and descent. After that we then reach the second and easier climb in the final 15km.

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At only 4.7% for close to 1.3km it shouldn’t cause too many issues but it will depend on how splintered the peloton is as to how easy it is to control. The wider road should help in that respect.

The fighting for position will be very intense once we are into the final 2kms as the riders will want to be near the front for when they turn off the two-lane main road onto a narrower one-track street.

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470m at 8.2% sees the riders into the last 400m where the road itself constantly rises and falls ever so slightly as they twist and turn towards the finish line.

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The last corner comes at roughly 200m to go and given its quite sharp nature and road furniture on exit, I don’t think the organisers expect a big group to be coming to the line together. Being in second or third wheel at that point gives you a great chance for the win.

The final kilometre is the exact same as in the Tour de Finistère so you can have a look on the video above to get an idea of what it is like.

How will the stage pan out?

One of those days where a lot of things can happen.

We could see the break go early and stay away to the line if there is no one of real danger for the overall in it, or if BMC are happy enough to let the jersey slip. Although with the team in difficulty for next year then I don’t think that will be the case.

Dependent on how tough the day is race we might actually have some small GC time gaps at the end of the day if people are caught behind splits on the run in, similar to what we had in the Giro stage that Wellens won, albeit that was a much tougher final climb. We might even see some GC attacks if someone is feeling lively: Yates and Valverde could be two protagonists as they are the type to go for it on this finish. The bonus seconds might turn out handy at the end of the race.

Which brings me nicely to the time bonus sprint at the top of the steep 700m hill. Will we see the aforementioned GC guys go for it there? If they do then the race will be incredibly stretched out and difficult to control with only 12km to go once they pass through the point. A small escape group might form there and make it to the line.

If not, it will come down to a gallop up the finish hill with some no doubt trying to string it out on the steeper opening part, hoping to put the faster riders into difficulty. In theory, the likes of Colbrelli, Matthews and Sagan should be able to fight for the victory with the latter starting as the big favourite for the day. However, if the pace has been high on the earlier climbs it might take the sting out of their sprints. Likewise, if we see a massive attack on the final ascent it could be difficult for them. I wouldn’t put it past Sagan being that guy to attack though!

I could name countless riders and the different situations in which they *might* win but I’m going to keep it simple and just go with two. So in the words of Ciara…

One-Two Step

Julian Alaphilippe and Philippe Gilbert.

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There’s no point even separating the two of them here because they are both a very similar type of rider for this finish. Both of them are incredibly explosive and pack a punchy effort in the sprint just after a climb. After their success in two of the four stages so far I think Quick Step will want to continue their dominance at the race tomorrow by trying to take the yellow jersey, again. There is a possibility that they might save their efforts for the Mur de Bretagne on Thursday but this is Quick Step we are talking about: they only know how to win! It will be interesting to see how they approach the finale and if one of them attacks early. I think we might see Gilbert used as an early attacker on the time bonus climb, with Alaphilippe waiting to go all out at the finish. Or the other way round, who knows!

Prediction

Gilbert to be rewarded for his season so far where he has been a super team-mate for others by taking the win and spending another day in the yellow jersey.

TOUR DE FRANCE - STAGE ONE

Betting

Tweeted out my picks when the market went live and prices have shortened a little but would still take what they are at now.

1pt WIN Gilbert @ 20/1 (now 18/1)

1pt WIN Alaphilippe @ 20/1 (now 16/1)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France 2018 Stage 4 Preview: La Baule -> Sarzeau

Today’s Recap

The classiest TTT team came out on top at the end of the day with BMC taking home the victory and Van Avermaet moving into yellow.

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The margins were small between the stage favourites though with Sky (+4 seconds), Quick Step (+7 seconds), Mitchelton (+9 seconds) and Sunweb (+11 seconds) rounding out the top 5.

In fact, most of the GC contenders will be fairly happy with their team’s effort and we don’t have anyone massively out of touch yet thanks to the splits on the opening day. Quintana at 2’08 is probably the worst off but he is just over a minute behind Froome. All still most definitely to play for and we will no doubt see the GC picture shaken up even more on a couple of stages this week. First though, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another day for the fast men of the peloton.

Tour Stage 4

195km of flat, albeit ever so slightly rolling terrain as the riders head in land before turning back towards the sea again for the second half of the day.

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By far the easiest run in of the race so far, the riders only have to contend with one roundabout at 4km to go and the rest is on one road with little deviation.

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The final 1.3km is on an arrow straight road with the gradient dragging at an ever so slight 1.4% average. Although the final 500m are flatter compared to the first 800m. The riders will have to be wary of a nagging cross headwind on the run in – you don’t want to launch your sprint too early.

Contenders and Pretenders

We’ve been through the sprinters before and it would be tiresome of me to name them all and list possible reasons for them winning again. So I’m not going to do that. This is a long Tour after all. Instead here are a few tidbits to take from stage 2, if we can take anything again considering the crash.

Sagan is a joy to watch on the bike and his skills are to marvel at. He always seems to find himself in the right position at the right time and he proved to have the speed to finish it off on Sunday. The easier finish tomorrow might not be as good for him but he’ll be up there.

Colbrelli was so close but he just didn’t have enough and he should feature in the top 5 again.

Greipel and Degenkolb were disappointing, as was Kristoff. Interestingly, Degenkolb stated after stage 2 that they were actually going to try to go for the sprint with Stuyven. He could certainly be an outside pick for tomorrow – he has an underrated sprint on a slight drag.

Demare looks good but he gambled and went early. Having his lead-out fully intact tomorrow will help him out, he just needs to be patient.

That’s all we can take from Stage 2 really as everyone else was held up or involved in the crash!

No beating about the bush here, straight into the prediction…

Prediction

I think tomorrow is the day for Groenewegen to step up.

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He and his Lotto Jumbo lead out train have failed on the opening two sprints, mainly because they have been too far back on the tricky run-ins. This is unfortunately a negative of their “leave it fast and late approach”. However, with tomorrow being an arrow-straight closing few kilometres with very little road furniture then their style should thrive. Groenewegen looked to be closing fast on the opening day but he just started miles behind. We’ve seen so far this year how strong he is in the sprints and tomorrow he will show that again, taking the biggest win of his career.

Even though the run in is “easy” we could see a couple of surprise results because of all the jostling around. This has happened a few times this year already when Guardini came second on the opening day of Abu Dhabi. Therefore, I would like to keep an eye on Stuyven too.

Betting

2pts WIN Groenewegen @ 6/1 with Betfred (would take 4/1 lowest but plenty of else in between elsewhere)

0.25pt EW Stuyven @ 250/1 with Bet365 (would take 150/1 lowest)

Going slightly above my 2pt a day rule but if I stick with that from now then it will be 50pt staked throughout the Tour include GC bets.

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will come out on top tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

Tour de France 2018 Stage 3 Preview: Cholet -> Cholet (TTT)

Today’s Recap

Another chaotic sprint and that corner with just under 2km to go that I warned about in my preview yesterday proved to be at the centre of it. There was no room for some riders to come up the inside like they wanted and were forced outwards as the corner was more than 90-degrees and we unfortunately had a crash that took out a few of the stage contenders. Thankfully it was at a slightly slower speed so no one seems too injured from it.

That left a group of only 14 riders at the head of the race going under the Flamme Rouge to contest the stage win.

Démare tried to catch everyone off guard by going slightly early but Sagan was alive to it, brushing off Degenkolb as he latched onto the FDJ rider’s wheel. The World Champion then accelerated out of the slipstream and managed to hold on for the win, edging out the charging blog pick Colbrelli who finished a wheel length behind, with Demare coming home in third.

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That result means Sagan is in yellow going into tomorrow’s stage. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A rolling 35.5km team time trial and the first “GC day”.

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Although there are a few roundabouts and turns to contend with in and around Cholet, the majority of the route is on a wide-open main road. Expect this to be a fast one!

Saying that, there are plenty of smaller roundabouts out on the route but most of them are relatively straightforward and they shouldn’t cause too many issues. The only thing teams will need to be wary of is their change-over as the timing will become more important near the roundabouts.

As is tradition with any sort of time trial I have made my own profile on Strava/Veloviewer that you can view here.

Cholet TTT 3D

The course features many short drags, but the first of which comes after only 1km and averages 2.7% for 2.1km. Nothing too tough bit it will make the teams ponder their pacing strategy a bit more. The next comes at 16km and is 1.8km at 3.3%, with the final major incline starting at just over 25km, with an average of 3.8% for 1.6km but it does include a steeper section at the bottom with 700m at 6.9%.

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The final 10km are mainly downhill so it will be a fast and frenetic run in.

Weather wise it appears that all the teams should face similar conditions, with a consistent 20km/h wind coming from the north north-east.

Contenders

It’s going to be a bit of a weird watch tomorrow with three of the favourite teams for the stage heading off within the first five outfits down the ramp. Of course, the squads will head out at 5 minute intervals with them going in reverse Team GC order, although Bora will be out last as Sagan has Yellow.

Mitchelton Scott.

First team down the ramp the Aussie outfit sacrificed bringing Ewan with them to the Tour so that they could focus on this stage a little bit more, choosing to have a group of strong rouleurs to help Yates as much as possible. That has somewhat backfired a bit after the opening two stages which have seen the Brit on the deck twice, with Impey and Durbridge both falling today as well. Will that have an impact tomorrow? Unfortunately we and probably them too, won’t know until they are out on the road. Matt White sounded confident in a post stage interview today stating that they will be up there fighting for the win but I’m just not sure after this afternoon. They were podium challengers but I think they will be happy with a top 5.

Team Sky.

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Second down the start ramp, Sky will be looking to take as much time as possible after Froome and Bernal’s bumps in the opener, we could even see Thomas in Yellow for the second year in a row. Sky absolutely smashed the 35km TTT in the Dauphine where the averaged a crazy 57.456km/h, putting 38 seconds into second placed BMC. Their outfit at this race is arguably even stronger and they won’t have many passengers. I would expect Rowe to fall away at some point but aside from that they will most likely come home together. Will that extra fire power help them? Given the nature of the course and the quality of their team they start as the stage favourites.

BMC.

It’s a TTT which means that the American team will inevitably be up there fighting for the win. They will miss the likes of Dennis and Scotson but they do have a very strong and well-rounded squad with them. One of the best drilled outfits in the peloton they will be fully up for this. Having the slight advantage of time checks on the two teams mentioned above, albeit they don’t start that much later than them, should help them pace their efforts a little better. Could we see Porte claw back some crucial time on his rivals?

Team Sunweb.

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The current World Champions will start 9th from the finish tomorrow so they should know time finish times of Mitchelton, Sky and possibly BMC by the time they set off. This will be a massive advantage to them as they will get an idea of the other teams pacing and where time could be gained/lost. Their squad is made up of a lot of strong riders, including three of the six who won that world title. In Suisse they placed an impressive 4 riders inside the top 12 in the final TT so they are clearly in good shape. Can the World Champs be classed as an outsider? They will be there or thereabouts.

Quick Step.

The only other team who I can see contending for the win/podium are the Belgian outfit. Back in the day they were experts in this discipline but they seem to have lost their way a little over the past couple of years. However, we’ve seen the might of their lead-out train so far in this race – they just need to keep that up for another 30km! They don’t have many great individual TT riders but as a unit they are very strong with a bunch of solid rouleurs. A win might be out of reach but they would be delighted with a podium.

Prediction

This is a tough one to predict but I’ll go with the classy TTT team here, BMC to take the stage and Van Avermaet to go into Yellow. It will be very close between them and Sky though!

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Betting

2pts WIN BMC @ 11/5 with Bet365 (Would take 2/1).

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France 2018 Stage 2 Preview: Mouilleron-Saint-Germain -> La Roche-sur-Yon

Today’s Recap

The Tour is the Tour.

I thought it would be hectic and we might see few spills but that was even crazier than I imagined. Démare was one of the first involved in a crash which also saw Yates and Porte held up but that was the end of the French sprinters chance to take yellow and he rolled home in almost last place. Another rider cruelly struck down by the now infamous #HaugheyCurse. Bernal went sideways when the road narrowed, then Froome took a tumble into a field and joined the chasing group of Porte/Yates. Meanwhile, Quintana suffered a double mechanical just outside the 3km to go mark, awful timing, and he was swiftly passed on by that group as he waited for assistance.

All while that was going on behind Quick Step were tearing things up at the front of the peloton and their young sprint sensation Fernando Gaviria took home the win on his very first Tour stage, not a bad record that.

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It really was a special lead out and gallop to the line. Sagan was second with a fast finishing Kittel showing a glimpse of his old self with third.

Behind the majority of the GC contenders made it home together aside from Porte/Yates/Froome who lost 51 seconds, Quintana/Bernal who lost 1’15 and Latour who lost 2’11.

Will we see any more spills tomorrow or will all of the sprinters get a fair run at it? Let’s look at what lies ahead.

The Route

A slightly more rolling day but another nailed on sprint finish.

Nothing overly exciting until we get to the final 5km again.

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The road twists and turns through the streets of La Roche-sur-Yon with several sharp turns and roundabouts to negotiate. Once again there is a good smattering of road furniture so the riders will have to be wary at all times. Things could once again get messy.

You can see a Streetview fly through of the final 5km on the video above and I would recommend watching it at 0.5x speed to get a better idea of the nature of the run in.

The trickiest turn in my opinion is the one at just after 2km to go when the riders take a sharp right and almost tun back on themselves a bit.

Screen Shot 2018-07-07 at 17.55.02 — Said tricky, blind right turn.

From that point they will be going downhill until the final 800m when the road rises all the way to the line. It is only at an average of 1.8% but it will certainly have an impact on how the sprint is played out. Timing will be very important.

What Can We Learn From Today?

#1 – QuickStep have a very strong lead out, although that was almost expected, and they have utmost confidence in Gaviria who himself is incredibly strong.

#2 – Sagan is Mr Consistent and even without a train he still manages to get into the right position. He matched Gaviria in the sprint but didn’t have enough to come around him.

#3 – Kittel looked somewhat back to his old self as that finish sprint was very impressive to get up for third from how far back he was. Maybe if he’d shown that earlier in the year then he would have more riders to help him?

#4 – Jumbo’s late lead-out was decimated and Groenewegen did a Kittel. He finished strongly too, but he was not mentioned about as much.

#5 – Cavendish and Greipel got lost through some roundabouts.

#6 – Colbrelli and Cort were on leader protection duties.

#7 – The #HaugheyCurse still lives on with Demare, all riders beware.

The Outside Picks for Tomorow.

As I talked at great lengths in yesterday’s preview about the sprinters, today I’m just going to focus on two outside candidates who the finish should suit.

Sonny Colbrelli.

The Italian has had a very consistent season so far with several top 10s in the bigger bunch sprints. His two wins though have come on trickier finishes where there is some climbing at the end of the stage. One was on the Hatta Dam which shows how explosive he can be on the incline while his more recent win against the likes of Sagan in Gaviria in Suisse highlights how he can grind it out on these slight drags. Colbrelli always seems to be a feature in a sprint when there is a steady gradient for a few hundred metres and after helping the team today, he says he wants to go better and show what he can do tomorrow. I’ll be watching with interest.

Michael Matthews.

Cycling: 104th Tour de France 2017 / Stage 14

Surprisingly with only one win to his name this year, he has been lightly raced, Matthews will be looking to double that tally tomorrow. The slight uphill drag to the line suits his characteristics well and brings him level with the “purer” sprinters. After today’s stage he said that his legs felt surprisingly good and that he was looking forward to the coming days. Sunweb are apparently all in for Dumoulin’s GC hopes, but Matthews has been given the chance to go for the sprints. It will be interesting to see how much support he gets tomorrow and if he has Arndt and Theuns leading him out, that’s a very short but explosive train. Will we see the super confident 2017 version of Matthews? If so, he might just blow everyone away.

Prediction

Slightly left field but I really rate Colbrelli’s chances for tomorrow, I just have that feeling.

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In before his inevitable 12th.

Betting

0.5pt EW Matthews @ 80/1 (Various)

0.5pt EW Colbrelli @ 80/1 (Various)

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Could we see an upset? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Noirmoutier-en-l’Île -> Fontenay-le-Comte

After much hype and build up, the Tour finally starts tomorrow. So no messing about here, let’s get straight into what the riders have to look forward to on the opening day.

The Route

An almost pan-flat jaunt along the cause before the road heads inland and towards the finish town.

With the race travelling along the coast I was really hoping that the wind would play ball and offer some potential opening day echelons. Unfortunately it doesn’t look strong enough and it turns into a headwind as they head towards the finish. Which will demotivate anyone wanting to split it.

The Cat-4 climb will offer someone in the early break a chance of stepping onto the podium at the end of the day and claim the KOM jersey. Although with it coming 28km from the finish line, will they still be away by then?

At 13.5km to go, the riders will have the opportunity to chase some bonus seconds in the GC battle at the brand new sprint points that have been added to the race. They offer no points in the Green Jersey classification but they do offer time bonuses. I think the thinking behind it is to entice some of the GC riders to go for them but I’m not entirely sure how they will play out.

As you can see on the image above, the major issues on the run in come at 3km to 1km to go with three roundabouts and a “sharp turn” to be covered. This will string the bunch out and we’ll no doubt see a lot of fighting to get into the first roundabout so that a team can take the head of the bunch and control the pace.

Once through the “sharp turn” which is actually another roundabout, the riders will have just over a kilometre left to go. It will be a fast final kilometre as the road dips down ever so slightly, meaning we will no doubt see some crazy top speeds but it does make it a bit more dangerous.

The final 100m or so do rise up to the line but given the speed that the riders will be carrying then it shouldn’t be an issue. You can see a mock finish line banner in the distance!

Who will be competing for the win though?

The Old Guard vs the New Wave

Are we seeing a shift in power between the sprinters with some of the older riders passing the baton onto the newer generation coming through? Let’s start off by looking at some of the old guard.

Mark Cavendish.

What Cav will turn up this year? In 2016 everyone wrote him off (including myself) but he arrived at the race absolutely flying and racked up 4 stage wins to his name. Last year he seemed pretty lively but we never got to see where he was at after he was involved in a crash, partly or mainly caused by himself – that depends on who you ask. Since then he has had pretty terrible luck with illness and crashes hampering the end of 2017 and the majority of this year. Seemingly lacking confidence at the moment, he only has one win to his name in 2018 but with a team almost fully dedicated to him, there will be pressure on him to deliver. On form he doesn’t really have a chance but you can never rule out a guy with 148 wins in his career that includes 30 stage wins at the Tour, can you?

Andre Greipel.

The Gorilla started off this year with a bang by taking two strong stage wins Down Under but back in Europe he has struggled to find his feet in the WT bunch sprints with two podium places the only results to shout home about. He fell (twice) in Milan SanRemo, that #HaugheyCurse striking again, which was a shame as he was climbing as well as I have seen from him in a long time. After his lay off he returned he bullied his way to two stage wins in both Dunkerque and the Belgium Tour. His recent run in Suisse wasn’t great but I think he was using that more for training rather than anything else. With a quite powerful lead-out train, NewLottoSoudal will hope to be one of the teams controlling the run in. The slight kick up to the line is good news for the powerful Greipel and with a potential headwind sprint, he has a chance. Remember the rule?

Alexander Kristoff.

The second part of that rule, Kristoff unfortunately seems a little past his heyday in the big bunch sprints, he needs a slightly reduced group to shine against the very best. He has no real lead-out to speak of and I just can’t see him winning or finishing on the podium tomorrow. I am ready to eat my hat.

Marcel Kittel.

Devoid of confidence, he looks a shell of the man he was at Quick Step last year. With only two wins to his name this year, both at Tirreno Adriatico, his team seem to have lost faith in him too as they only bring a reduced lead-out train with him. Not ideal. There is no doubt he has the talent but he seems to be missing a few watts due to his lack of confidence. For his sake, I hope he bags a result at some point this race and it is not great from a fan’s perspective to see one of the best sprinters struggle.

John Degenkolb.

He’s just never been the same since that crash and he doesn’t have the speed to compete on this type of finish.

Now onto the new guard…

Fernando Gaviria.

The Colombian sprint sensation arrives here with seven wins to his name so far this season, including a dominant display in California. In his recent outing in Switzerland he was the bridesmaid on three occasions but that won’t have knocked his confidence, it will only make him hungrier. The lack of Keisse is a big loss but Quick Step still bring a strong and powerful lead out and no doubt we’ll see them come to the front in the closing stages. With his trusted pilot fish Richeze, Gaviria should be positioned well in the final kilometre – he just needs to get his timing right.

Dylan Groenewegen.

The most successful sprinter so far this season with 8 wins, the Lotto NL Jumbo man comes into the race full of confidence. Some of his victories this season have seen him almost bully his sprint opposition and he will no doubt be expecting similar results this time. His team have stuck with the short and late lead-out approach this season which has worked in the majority of races but if they get the timing wrong, then it is very difficult for him to make up ground. On a run in like tomorrow expect them to sit a little back until they hit near they come around the final turn and go full gas from there. Sitting further back though does run the risk of being detached from the lead out or getting caught up in a crash. He does start as the favourite given the season he is having though.

Arnaud Demare.

Technically Demare is the form sprinter as he has won the most recent bunch sprint and if you read my GC preview yesterday, you will know that I have backed him for the green jersey. I was really impressed with his train in that Suisse stage and they could very easily pull off something similar here and boss the final couple of kilometres Last year at the Tour he was in the Green Jersey for a few stages and well in the running before unfortunately falling ill and having to withdraw. No longer wearing the French champions jersey, I’m sure he won’t mind if he pulls on Yellow tomorrow.

The I couldn’t fit them into a category-ers…

Peter Sagan.

What can the World Champ not do? Win a full bunch sprint at the Tour, that’s what. Well, maybe until this year. Despite having won 8 stages at this event, they have all came in reduced sprint days where some of the fast men have been left behind. Does he have the speed to compete? Most certainly but he will have to ride solo, not that that has stopped him before. He’s very consistently on or around the podium in WT sprints and he might benefit tomorrow from others having some first stage nerves as he will no doubt manage to keep his cool.

Sonny Colbrelli & Michael Matthews.

Very similar riders who will find it difficult on a finish like this, they would prefer a slightly tougher day. Both have little help from their teams so a podium on the stage would be a wonderful result. I would think that Colbrelli would have more of a chance.

I’ve probably missed someone but time is marching on so apologies!

Prediction

A tough one to call in what will no doubt be a frantic and messy sprint but I think Demare’s lead out will prevail and the Frenchman will kick off the big race with a win.

Groenewegen to come fast and late but just miss out and come second with wily old Greipel coming home in third.

Betting

1pt WIN Demare at 8/1 (with Skybet although you can get better odds on BF Exchange)

0.5pt EW Greipel at 18/1 (with Bet365 and others)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Tour de France 2018 GC Preview

In 2017 we saw a rather dominant Chris Froome win by ‘only’ 54 seconds ahead of Rigoberto Uran with Romain Bardet edging Landa by one second to round out the GC podium.

I say ‘only’ above as it was actually Froome’s smallest winning margin in all 4 of his victories so far, but he never looked in that much trouble throughout the three weeks. Obviously it was a measured effort so that he could go on to win the Vuelta later in the year, then the Giro this year. Can he make it an incredible 5th Tour win and 4th GT win in a row?

No fancy business here because as I’ll be doing daily stage previews I’m just ducking any route analysis here and just jumping straight into the favourites. I would recommend this preview from Road.cc though as they cover each stage in concise paragraphs. Much better than my ramblings!

I’m also going to be blunt with some riders as I don’t really rate their overall chances. Also you’ll have read many previews by now and if I’m honest, I can’t really bothered to rehash what others have said.

Anyway, onto the contenders and pretenders…

The Favourite

Chris Froome.

Despite what your opinion is (I’m sure you all know mine by now) on the whole salbutamol case, the bottom line is that Froome is cleared and is here to race. Nothing like a bit of pre-Tour drama though with ASO apparently going to ban him before UCI/WADA announcing the following day that his case was dropped. More drama than Love Island!

At the Giro Froome was seemingly way off the pace but two remarkable days on the bike, Zoncolan and Stage 19, saw him claw back an almost 3 minute deficit to Dumoulin with some more left in the bag. With an extra week between the Giro and Tour, he should have recovered reasonably well. His team is super strong, as you would expect, and he will have a lot of support on the flat and in the mountains. It will be interesting to see how he can handle the cobbled stage – it will certainly bring back bad memories from crashing out in 2014. No doubt he starts as the favourite and will gain time in the efforts against the clock but can we really expect a rider to win four Grand Tours in a row? I hope not, for the sake of the sport.

The Waiting for Froome to falter-ers

Richie Porte.

Can Richie survive a Grand Tour without a bad day? That is the million dollar question. If he does, then he will play a massive role in the outcome of this race. Arguably the best rider on a 15 minute climb in the World, he will hope to display some of that trademark out of the saddle “sprint-climbing” in this race. At the Tour de Suisse he was strong and took home that race but I get the sense that he still wasn’t at 100%, there is still room for improvement from him. Compared to what he has been used to in the past couple of seasons this looks like his strongest BMC support team. They have all terrain covered to shepherd Porte around France and he should be able to rely on Van Garderen and Caruso deep into many of the mountain days. I started off this season thinking that Porte would win the race and although my mind has been slightly changed, he still starts as one to beat if he stays on his bike.

Romain Bardet.

The AG2R man has finished on the podium the past two years and will be hoping for a similar result this year, if not better. A third in the recent Dauphiné was a good and highlights that his form is heading in the right direction but that he has not peaked too soon. In last year’s edition of the race I loved the way AG2R attacked Sky in the mountains and they bring an even stronger squad with them this time out. He shouldn’t lose a crazy amount of time in the TTT as a result but I do have a slight worry for him on the cobbled stage. Then again, who of the GC contenders will truly be comfortable then? A big day is needed from Naesen! In the mountains he (alongside Porte) is one of the few riders I am confident can actually challenge Froome. With a few stages ending in descents from climbs, he will be in his element and certainly put pressure on the other GC contenders.

Nairo Quintana.

Is the Colombian back to his climbing best? It looks like it after his strong showing in the Tour de Suisse and he was particularly impressive holding off the group of GC contenders on the shallow drag before the final steeper ramps of Arosa. He forms a very strong attacking trident with Valverde and Landa and I’m really looking forward to see how they approach the race. I just hope that at least two of them are in contention after the cobbled stage. We saw in 2015 just how strong Nairo can be in the final week of the race in the high mountains and the rest of his challengers will be concerned if he is within 2 minutes going into the closing stages. No doubt we’ll certainly see some enthusiastic Colombian fans at the side of the road!

The Podium Outsiders

Right, shorter musings from now on.

Vincenzo Nibali.

Winner of the Tour when the race last visited the cobbles, the Bahrain rider has had a pretty average year so far. However, he knows how to peak for a race and he can never be discounted. With a strong team to support him, we will probably see him on the attack as he will no doubt have to claw some time back after the TTT.

Rigoberto Uran.

A surprising second place last year, I think it will be hard for the Colombian to repeat the feat this time around. He found some race sharpness in Slovenia recently but I just don’t think he has enough to do it. Then again, no one really mentioned him last year and look what happened.

Alejandro Valverde.

Mr Evergreen, Valverde has been incredibly strong this season so far, having won the GC of every stage race he has competed in. It was scary how easy things were for him in the recent La Route d’Occitanie, using the attacks of Elissonde and Navarro as training – deliberately letting gaps grow so he could close them down. He’s another that will probably be chasing time after the TTT but I look forward to his venture onto the cobbles – he didn’t do too badly in Dwars this year.

Adam Yates.

Have Mitchelton learnt from his brother’s epic collapse at the Giro? In strong form after his second in the Dauphine (the gap to Porte would have only be a handful of seconds if it was not for the TTT), he will be able to rely on a well-rounded squad focussed solely on him. Can he handle the pressure?

Jakob Fuglsang.

If there was ever a year when Fuglsang could seriously challenge for a podium spot then this would be it. He has a solid team built around him that should be able to support him on most terrain. Back in 2014 he was the one doing the majority of the work when Nibali gained a load of time on the cobbles so no doubt he’ll be licking his lips at that stage. We saw in the Tour de Suisse that he was stronger than Porte on the last day of climbing and he followed that up with a blistering TT. Has he managed to hold form?

Top 10 Fillers

Ilnur Zakarin.

The Katusha man is one of those riders that could really fall into a couple of categories in this preview. I fear he’ll lose some time in the TT and given his poor bike handling the cobbles will be an issue too. However, we saw in the Vuelta last year that he was one of the best climbers in the last week. It all depends on the opening 9 days though.

Geraint Thomas.

Team Sky Plan B but when has a Team Sky Plan B ever actually won a race? I certainly can’t recall a time. Needs Froome to drop out within the opening 9 days for him to get a dedicated team around him. Will he wait for his captain on the cobbles as theoretically he should be one of the strongest GC riders. It will be interesting to see how it plays out within the team.

Bob Jungels.

I rate him as a rider but I feel he’s just going to be a “he’s there” kind of rider this Tour. Top 10 would be a good result.

Daniel Martin.

Terrible team means he will lose a lot of time in the TTT and he will lose a lot of time on the cobbles too. Stage hunting later in the race would be a good idea if he just doesn’t want to ride for a top 10.

Steven Kruijswijk.

See Jungels.

Bauke Mollema.

See Kruijswijk.

The Pretenders

Riders that won’t top 10 despite a lot of people thinking they will. Ready to eat my hat here.

Primoz Roglic.

He seems to be everyone’s favourite wildcard for the race but I just can’t see it. Having won both Itzulia and Romandie he then returned to racing recently and took the crown at his home tour. Unproven and untested, I think he will once again go for stage wins and focus on contending for the GC in a GT next year.

Tom Dumoulin.

The Sunweb rider has never done two GTs back to back while going for GC. After the brutally tough Giro I think he will fall short here and instead focus on going for some stage wins. The way that Sunweb approached this race to me seemed that Kelderman was going to be their GC candidate with Dumoulin acting as a decoy to deflect attention but unfortunately Kelderman crashed and can’t take the start.

Mikel Landa.

The boldest of the three riders listed here, I just can’t get behind the Landa train. I think something will go wrong for him on one of the days and with the two more established Movistar riders possibly getting a little extra support, Landa will lose his hopes on the cobbles. If he is in contact though I would love to see Rogue Landa again.

Egan Bernal.

Exceptional talent but he’ll fall into line, a.k.a behind Thomas and Poels. We might see something similar to Moscon at the Vuelta where he is exceptional for a while but due to his age he won’t be consistent.

Prediction

Probably Froome, innit.

But after resigning myself to that fate at the Giro I’m going to predict a more fairytale result here and go with Bardet to take home the first French win in a long time.

Allez Romain!

Betting

Three pre-Tour bets for me, all that I’ve tweeted out over the past couple of weeks.

2pts EW Bardet @ 18/1 for GC (he’s actually out to 20/1 with Betfair Sportsbook but I would take the 16/1 widely available elswhere)

1.5pt Valverde Top 3 at 7/1 (available at Bet365 and Will Hill)

1pt EW Demare Points Classification at 20/1 (with Coral/Lads)

I had set aside 10pts for outright market bets but this is not the year to bet on KOM pre race but I might fancy something during the race.

Let’s just hope for a better Tour than Giro punting wise, I’ll be sticking to my favourite rule: 2pts a day keeps the debt collector away!

Thanks for reading as always and hope you enjoyed the preview. Who do you think will go on to win the race overall? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Giro Rosa 2018 Preview: The BFOG

After a little time away from blog writing I’m back with a bang to preview the toughest women’s race on the calendar, the Giro d’Italia Internazionale Femminile a.k.a The Giro Rosa. With last year’s success of the BFOG I thought I would do something similar for this season so here is your one stop for all of the coming 10 days of action!

In 2017 we saw what was really a three-horse race established after only the second day of racing when van Vleuten, van der Breggen and Longo Borghini stole a march on the rest of the GC favourites, coming home almost 2 minutes ahead of the next group.

Van Vleuten would lose almost 2 minutes on the rather innocuous stage 4 when Boels split the bunch in the crosswinds and it would be that day that consequently cost her the chance of winning the race overall, although she would get some consolation with a second stage win in the TT. In fact, the gaps after that TT on the 5th day pretty much remained the same throughout the remaining 5 stages so it was van der Breggen who ultimately took home the crown ahead of Longo Borghini and van Vleuten rounding out the podium in third.

With van der Breggen not here this year to defend the title, it opens up the race for a potential new winner. Can van Vleuten step up, or will we see a surprise rider take the crown?

First though, let’s look at what the riders will face over the 10 stages. Get comfortable though as this could be a long one!

The Route and Stage Contenders

The majority, if not all, of the profiles used will be from LaFlammeRouge so go and give them a follow. Otherwise, they’ll be ones that I’ve made on Strava etc.

Stage 1: Verbania -> Verbania (TTT)

Seemingly now a tradition, the race once again starts with a team time trial, this time around the streets and suburbs of Verbania. Pretty much pan flat with only 70m of elevation gain throughout the 16km course, there is no need for a profile here! It will be a course that suits the power teams but as you can see on the map there are a few tighter corners where organisation will be key. With the women getting little chance to do a full TTT in races, we could see a couple of surprise results.

Boels smashed the opposition over a similar course in the Healthy Ageing Tour where they took 52 seconds out of second place team Virtu. They will be up against much stronger opposition here and they certainly won’t have it all their own way but they do start out as favourites. We of course have current TTT World Champions Sunweb at the race and they will no doubt want to go out and show that result was not a one-off and looking at their team, they have plenty of power houses in there to challenge Boels again. Those two outfits should finish 1-2 but there are another couple of teams who I have my eye on for a strong result.

Cervelo Bigla were my team to upset the apple cart last year but they had a disaster with them losing two riders early on due to a crash. I think they’ll return this year even stronger and their squad looks strong for this discipline, with them putting three riders inside the top 10 in their most recent TT at Bira.

Mitchelton Scott have come on leaps and bounds in the TT discipline this year and like Cervelo, they also had three riders in the top 10 of that Bira effort. They haven’t actually competed in a team-version this year so it will be interesting to see how they gel together but given they spent a day on their TT bikes together at training camp, I would be surprised if they didn’t sneak in some practice. I genuinely think they could contend for the win, the top 4 will be covered by only 15 seconds or so.

Stage 2: Ovada -> Ovada

One of those typical Italian rolling stages so the outcome of the day will all depend on how aggressively they opening 80km as the closing 30km are fairly easy. It should end in a sprint but again that all relies on teams having numbers to control things. The finish is a bit deceiving on the profile (shock), but the road rises ever so slightly before flattening out to the line.

The rise is only 600m at 3.4% but it might take the sting out of the sprinters kick and open it up for some of the puncheurs to go for the stage win. Not to mention that with around 300m to go the riders have to face this roundabout.

It will be a sketchy finish but at least the slight rise will have slowed them down to not make the roundabout too dangerous.

Three riders who to keep an eye out for here include Bastianelli, Ryan and Pieters, all of whom can cope with the short rise and pack a very fast sprint. I’ll go with the Ale rider to take the stage, the finish screams Bastianelli to me.

Stage 3: Corbetta -> Corbetta.

There seems to be a recurring theme here in these opening few stages where the same town is hosting the start and finish, with stage 3 a roughly 30km circuit around Corbetta. With a pan-flat route, this is definitely one for the fast women of the peloton and those who missed out the previous day will want to make amends.

Wild, Hosking, Lepistö and d’Hoore are the big names here in terms of pure, flat sprinting talent so it would be a surprise not to see one of them take home the win. There are plenty of others to watch out for though including Pieters, Buurman, Bronzini, Fournier and Vos to name a few.

Nonetheless, the last turn comes with around one kilometre to go and the straight road finish will see the strongest sprinter here win – steep up the Belgian Bullet a.k.a Jolien d’Hoore.

Stage 4: Piacenza -> Piacenza

The pattern continues onto stage 4 and we should see another sprint come the end of the day. There is a Cat-3 climb in the middle of the route to spice things up and tempt some teams to up the pace so we could see some sprinters dropped – women’s cycling is very unpredictable after all. However, I do think we’ll see a bunch sprint come the end of the day.

It is one tricky finish though, and it seems to be roundabout central: there are 6 of them in the last in closing 3km! Not entirely sure which genius thought this up and decided it was a great idea, but I guess that it is stereotypical Italian race design.

The last roundabout comes at roughly 200m to go, so whoever comes out of that in second wheel will probably win the day. I like the look of d’Hoore‘s lead out so I’ll go for her to double up.

Stage 5: Omegna -> Omegna

Another day, another same start and finish town!

With an uncategorised drag from the gun, we could see some riders in for a long day. The Cat-2 climb of Lesa – Fine Salita will see the first GC selection of the race. The climb can really be split into two parts with an “easier” opening section before they face the Muro di Comnago.

The opening 3.6km average roughly 6.4% but it is the steep ramps of Comnago that will really split things up as through the town a 730m section averages 12.5%. It is going to hurt!

It will also be spectacular though as the riders race through the narrow streets. Once over the top of the climb then there is a little plateau followed by a descent. That then leads into an uncategorised ascent which averages 4% for almost 6kms – classic Giro! A long but not very steep descent sees the riders to the final 9km of flat where a tactical battle might result in a surprise winner.

We had a similar finish to this on stage 2 last year and I thought it would be too early for a GC shake up and that we’d most likely see 12-16 riders come to the line together, or a late attack from a very reduced group. That didn’t happen though and the top 3 on GC just rode everyone off their wheels and worked well to get to the finish together. The one difference to this route is that it is that the main climb comes further out but given the follow-up climb, I think we’ll see a selective GC day. That might be a surprise to some.

It won’t be as selective as what we saw on Stage 2 in 2017 but I think there will only be a group of 8 riders who make it over the climb together – van Vleuten, Spratt, Kennedy (Mitchelton Scott), Guarnier (Boels), Niewiadoma (Canyon), Moolman Pasio (Cervelo), Stultiens (Waowdeals) and Longo Borghini (Wiggle).

Everyone will expect Mitchelton Scott to do all of the work given their numbers but instead of being shouldered with it, they will constantly attack and Spratt will eventually slip away, taking the day.

Stage 6: Sovico -> Gerola Alta.

We finally get the first point to point stage!

Any GC gaps that were made yesterday will pale into significance after this stage. Nothing to see, aside from a more than likely hectic and fast run in to the first summit finish of the race. This day is all about that finish climb of Gerola Alta.

A very consistent climb, riders who can maintain a steady rhythm will go well here. The race isn’t finished at the end of the strava segment above, as the riders still have another two kilometres of rolling terrain to contend with. Will we see a 2/3 rider sprint? It is hard to tell exactly what will happen as we don’t have a lot to go from in recent years, with only some of the finishes in the US and last year’s La Course to go by. I think we’ll once again see Mitchelton assert their dominance and put pressure on the other teams, hoping to crack another couple of riders and decrease their opposition.

This is Van Vleuten’s day.

Stage 7: Lanzada -> Alpe Gera di Campo Moro.

Mountain TT day!

1122m of altitude gain in only 15.36km, meaning the climb averages 7.3% for its entirety. It is not the worst the riders will face this Giro but given it is a completely solo effort, some might find it more challenging than it is on paper. Expect some sizeable GC gaps between the favourites.

Can new climbing sensation Kennedy take her first World Tour win here?

Stage 8: San Giorgio di Perlena – Fara Vicentino -> Breganze.

After the previous tough stages the riders have had to endure then most will be looking forward to a “rest-day” here. That means this is arguably the only stage in the whole race suited to a breakaway. Unfortunately for some, there will consequently be a big fight to get into the move and I fear quite a few riders will be dropped on the early climbs. It’s a long way to the finish but a group of them should make it home within the time limit.

The last climb of the day will be a decisive one and it is a little muro, averaging roughly 10% for a shade over a kilometre. Expect the break to be torn apart here and we’ll more than likely see a solo winner arrive into Breganze. Some of the GC contenders might even sense an opportunity to attack if one of their rivals looks to be on an off day.

As for the stage winner, names in a hat time, so I’ll go with Cecchini, Beggin and Rowe.

Stage 9: Tricesimo -> Ovaro (Monte Zoncolan).

The one everyone has been waiting for.

Much like stage 6, there is nothing much to report until the famous last climb.

I don’t need to describe the climb, it is just brutal, end of. Expect some big gaps here and the GC winner should be crowned.

Stage 10: Cividale del Friuli -> Cividale del Friuli

What better way to round out the race than with yet another same town start/finish. No processional stage here though!

With a rather nasty sting in the tail, some things could still be up for grabs so the GC riders will need to be attentive and still fighting fit on the final climb of the race: San Leonardo.

5km at 8.1% is tough enough for a shake up, especially with the steeper opening 3km that the riders will have to contend with. A descent all the way to the finish means that whoever crests the climb in first (if they’re alone) will most likely win.

Well, a few thousand words later that’s the route analysis finished, just the GC contenders to discuss, although I’ll be keeping this bit short and to the point as there are only a few riders who can win this race.

Contenders

I named 8 riders before: van Vleuten, Spratt, Kennedy (Mitchelton Scott), Guarnier (Boels), Niewiadoma (Canyon), Moolman Pasio (Cervelo), Stultiens (Waowdeals) and Longo Borghini (Wiggle) as a potential group who might escape on stage 5 and they are the riders who I will ultimately finish in the top 8 of the race.

However, I don’t think all of them have a chance of winning so unfortunately for Niewiadoma and Stultiens, their journey ends here. Likewise, even though Mitchelton have named van Vleuten and Spratt as their leaders, I think that Kennedy is the stronger climber compared to Spratt. Consequently, she also falls by the wayside.

That leaves a top 5 of van Vleuten, Kennedy, Guarnier, Moolman Pasio and Longo Borghini.

Van Vleuten.

Last year’s third placed finished, the Dutchwoman really should have won the race but it was a lapse of concentration and poor positioning that cost her on a rather innocuous stage as she lost time due to splits in the peloton caused by the wind and formation of echelons. Mitchelton bring a stupidly stacked squad with them that covers all terrain very well and van Vleuten will have a lot of support to go for a title bid this year. In 2017 we saw on the Izoard at La Course just how good she is on these mountains and I expect no different from her at this Giro.

Lucy Kennedy.

A revelation since turning pro with Mitchelton at the start of the year, the Aussie has seriously impressed in her opening World Tour races. Unfortunately she crashed out of Amstel Gold Race while being in good shape so she hasn’t raced since then, instead focussing on recovering and getting some tough training and boy has she done that. She’s been on altitude camp with a few team-mates and has been setting some blistering times on the climbs around Livigno. Seemingly a naturally very strong climber, I am slightly concerned about her confidence after the crash. Her bike handling isn’t as great as some of the Europeans but that’s what you would expect when the majority of the bunch has grown up with aggressive and fast paced action in a peloton whereas Kennedy hasn’t. Thankfully for her, most of the mountains are at the end of the stages! I am intrigued to see how she copes in what is her first Giro but I haven’t seen any signs when she has been racing that suggest to me she will struggle. She could be the perfect 1-2 for Van Vleuten.

Elisa Longo Borghini.

Forever the bridesmaid it seems, ELB has struggled to this season a little and has failed to finish on the top step in 2018. However, this race is one of her big goals for the year and as a former winner of La Route de France she can never be discounted. Amazingly still only 26, the Wiggle rider has been already been around for a while and she should now be moving into her peak physical years. In 2017 she managed to follow van der Breggen and van Vleuten on the climbs, only losing time in the TT and TTT. Better efforts against the clock this year could see her be a real challenger for the title.

Megan Guarnier.

With no van der Breggen in their line-up, the 2016 winner of this race arrives as Boels’ main charge for the title. Since that victory in 2016 (which was an incredible year for her overall), Guarnier has struggled to get as many wins under her belt. However, she was exceptionally consistent in 2017 and acted as a great second in command for her leaders, even finishing 4th at this event herself. It will be interesting to see how she copes with the pressure of being the only leader but her palmares at the Giro would suggest she will be perfectly fine, having came home 4th (2017), 1st (2016) and 3rd (2015) in the past three editions. I think she’ll be ready.

Ashleigh Moolman Pasio.

The Cervelo Bigla rider has been one of the most consistent this year, with her lowest finishing position in her 20 race days being 24th on stage 3 of the Bira. A truly remarkable stat. In fact, she’s only finished outside the top 10 on 4 occasions. A crash hampered her race here last season so she will no doubt be back with a hunger to succeed. I mentioned her team as dark horses for the TTT so she shouldn’t lose too much time, if any, in that discipline so it will be down to her ability on the climbs. Luckily for her, she is one of the best in the world and I think we’ll see a great race from her.

Prediction

Having numbers at the head of the race will be crucial and will play a massive part in the outcome of the race.

After last year’s disappointment I think we’ll see van Vleuten take the step up and win the title. This is the race she has been preparing for all season and she’s not here to play any games!

Moolman and Guarnier to round out the podium.

Coverage

There were hushed mumblings that we were going to get some live coverage of the race this year but it seems that has unfortunately fallen through. Instead, there will be daily highlights on the PMG Sport facebook and Youtube page at roughly 5pm. If they are like their Italian Cup highlights then they will be well worth a watch and we should get to see most of the action with pretty much the last 20km of each day shown “live”.

As for during the race, the best way to follow it is via the #GiroRosa hashtag.

Thanks as always for reading, I hope you come back to this daily to see how wrong I was! If you could do me a massive favour and RT this on Twitter or share elsewhere then that would mean a great deal to me, this race deserves a lot more coverage. Who do you think is going to win overall? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s Tour 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Framlingham › Southwold

GC Overview

The OVO Energy Women’s Tour returns this year for what is expected to be a week of fast-paced and action-packed racing, which will take place over the toughest parcours this event has had to offer to date. The crucial stage appears to be on day 2 where the riders will face a short but steep climb only a few kilometres from the finish but there are plenty of days left to mix things up from there and we should hopefully see some agressive racing.

Looking at the qualities needed to win this race, a rider has to be able to get up and over the short climbs but also pack a fast sprint as gathering bonus seconds will be important come the end of the week. Unless of course someone mimics what Niewiadoma did last year and take one of the days solo and secures the title that way. Although I’m sure the peloton will be a lot more attentive this time around!

Some names to conjure with this week include Brennauer (Wiggle High5), Vos (Waowdeals) and Van Dijk (Sunweb). Ultimately though, I think it will Blaak who will come away with victory. The World Champion has had a great 2018 so far and she has the perfect combination of sprint speed but also the ability to get over the short ramps – anyone who can go well on the Cauberg can go well here!

Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders on the opening day.

The Route

Arguably the easiest day of the race, I’m sure plenty in the peloton will be thankful of a fairly benign day in the saddle to ride themselves into the event. The peloton will take on mostly flat roads from the town of Framlingham to Southwold.

There is only roughly 650m of elevation gain throughout the day but as you can see on the profile, there are no real hills but just some constantly rolling roads. I don’t know what the road conditions are like but if they’re anything like up here, then they will feel very heavy and the 650m might feel like a little bit more!

One Cat-3 QOM point will reward an early attacker with a jersey but given how unformulaic women’s racing seems to be at times, it could well be a rider who jumps out of a compact peloton that takes the points. If that is the case, then expect things to be kept together for the first intermediate sprint of the day and the consequent bonus seconds that are awarded with it.

A break might finally be let go after that but they won’t be given too much leeway as the sprint teams look to set things up for a bunch gallop into Southwold.

The final 3km are fairly straight forward aside from two turns within the closing kilometre which will stretch things out a bit. They aren’t too tight but the second turn onto the home straight is quite tight so being near the front here will be crucial.

Something else that will be crucial though is the wind. It looks as if it will be coming from the south-west throughout the day, blowing between 15km/h and 22km/h throughout the afternoon, with gusts up to 30km/h. A lot of the route is well covered but it will be interesting to see if some of the teams try to split things in the more exposed areas. It will need for the conditions to be perfect though.

More importantly though, it is something for the riders to consider in the sprint as it will pretty much be a block head wind for them so ideally you want to launch your effort later and come from further back to take advantage of the slipstream.

Sprinters

Jolien d’Hoore.

The Belgian rider arrives here without any racing since breaking her collarbone so it will be interesting to see where her for currently is. The Mitchelton Scott team that surrounds her is very strong and I’d argue that they have one of the best lead-out trains here, with Williams, Roy and Elvin able to put out a lot of power in the closing kilometres. D’Hoore has proven in the past just how fast a sprinter she is, but so far this year she has struggled to be dominant. A win here would go a long way in restoring some confidence.

Chloe Hosking.

One of the most consistent sprinters this year, Hosking has managed to take home 7 podium finishes which included 3 wins. She joked during the Spring campaign that she was the “Sagan of women’s cycling” always coming close but not taking home the result. I’m sure none of that mattered to her though when she won the Commonwealth Games in front of a home crowd. Like d’Hoore, this is her first race back since Chongming so it might take a bit to get her racing legs back but she can’t be ruled out.

Kirsten Wild.

Having missed out on a lot of the spring campaign to focus on the track, a wise move as she won the Omnium, Scratch race and Points race at the Worlds, Wild returned to the road properly at the end of March. Since then she has gone on to win three times in only 14 race days, not a bad feat, with her most recent success being the opening day of the Tour de Yorkshire. One of the most experienced sprinters in the peloton she’ll hope to use that to her advantage, especially with the tricky conditions in mind.

Coryn Rivera.

It was always going to be hard for the American to live up to her fantastic 2017 season and it looked for a while as if her season was really struggling to get going. However, two recent stage wins in Thüringen will have lifted her confidence greatly and she will be buoyed coming into this event. Having Van Dijk to guide her in the closing kilometres will be great as the Dutchwoman is one of the best in windy conditions so Rivera will no doubt be in the perfect position. Can she deliver and keep her streak going?

Those four are arguably the stand out sprinters for me at this race but there are plenty of other good sprinters hoping to upset the apple cart…

Both the Barnes sisters might give it a go for Canyon and will be intriguing to see who the team backs on the opening day. The experience of Vos (Waowdeals) and Bronzini (Cylance) can never be discounted. Boels have a couple of options they could go for but they might try to get Blaak bonus seconds, if not then Dideriksen and Pieters are viable podium candidates. Buurman (Trek Drops), Fournier (FDJ) and Andersen (Hitec) will all be fighting for that top 10 as well.

It really is a pretty open field!

Prediction

I’ll go with Hosking to take the win, she always seems to bring her A-game here.

Coverage

We unfortunately don’t have any live pictures so it will be a case of following along on Twitter via the #OVOWT hashtag. How have I managed to make it this far without my now yearly Drake joke? Oh well, I’m sure the riders will take care of that tomorrow when they write their own headlines…Whoops.

We will get an hour-long highlights package that will be shown on ITV4 here in the UK and I’m sure a good VPN will sort anyone else watching abroad out. The highlights will be on at the following times.

Rather oddly though, I’ll have my stage preview out for the next day out by then so just somehow skip past the header image and “today’s recap” if you want it to be kept a secret.

Velogames

For a bit of fun throughout the race I’ve made a Velogames league which you can join with this code “680890716”. No prizes on offer, just pride in beating me. Which really isn’t much of a hard task anyway.

Thanks as always for reading and I would really appreciate a RT on the timeline to spread the previews around a lot more as unfortunately, they just don’t get as much readership as the men’s previews do so any extra you can to do help would be great! Who do you think will win tomorrow, could we see an upset? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 6 Preview: Frontenex › La Rosière Espace San Bernardo

Just a heads up, this preview will be shorter than normal as I have to write for both tomorrow and Sunday’s stage this evening due to me being away this weekend. It also means that in tomorrow’s preview I’ll just be assuming a few things and there will be no “today’s recap”.

Today’s Recap

A strong break went but they were never given too much leeway from Sky and after Bora took the bait, things were close enough once onto the final climb to ensure that a GC rider was going to win the day.

Dan Martin took advantage of a lull in the pace once things regrouped after a Soler attack, with the UAE rider putting in a stinging dig that no one could, or wanted to, match. Geoghegan Hart returned to the head of what was left of the peloton and set tempo for Thomas, before swinging off at roughly 1km to go. The Welshman attacked and only Bardet could follow, but he could only manage to do so for a few hundred metres before swinging off. It left Thomas to chase down Martin on his own and he was slowly reeling him in all the way until the line but it was too late.

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Martin held on for the win with Thomas finishing 4 seconds behind and Yates sprinted out of the pack to round out the podium in third, a further 10 seconds back.

The result means that Thomas moves into Yellow and increases his lead over everyone bar Martin, with nearest challenger Caruso sitting 1’09 down going into the weekend.

Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A tad over 4000m of climbing in only 110km, this could be interesting. Furthermore, this will pretty much be a carbon copy of stage 11 on this year’s Tour.

criterium-du-dauphine-2018-stage-6

The climbs are long, but none of them are overly steep, with the toughest ascent of the day being the first. You can just read the percentages on the profile, no time for semantics today!

stage-6-la-rosiere

As for the final climb it starts off easy and finishes easy, it is just the middle third which has quite a high average gradient. Anyone looking to put their rivals into difficulty will need to do so here.

How will the stage pan out?

Pffffft, no idea!

On paper at least, you would imagine that it should be a GC day given the amount of climbing involved but after Thomas’ dominant performance today, some might not be so keen on having their teams chase all day.

Therefore, we’ll need to see some brave and most likely doomed early attacks from the GC contenders, or Sky will just control things all day. The long, steady climbs are perfect for them. It’s then a question of them making it a GC day or not? They don’t need to as they can afford to ride a defensive race, but when has that ever stopped them before?

Or of course, we could see a hail mary, guns-blazing stage where the peloton is down to 20 guys after the first climb.

I do actually think the break has a decent chance tomorrow because of how strong Thomas and Sky looked today. Even if things get crazy on the opening climb the yellow jersey shouldn’t be exposed and I would expect him to have at least 3 team-mates with him when everyone else is down to one or two. Teams will need to be inventive to beat Sky so sending a man up the road can never hurt as they can always act as a bridge for a GC attack late on. Of course, Sky can then play the bluff game and let the gap extend out too far for the man up the road to be made redundant.

To sum up: I don’t know.

As it is more fun to play the breakaway lottery than just say Thomas will win, I’ll do that…

TheBreakawayLottery

Tony Gallopin.

See yesterday’s preview. He was with the main group of GC favourites for a while up the final climb, highlighting he has good form. Bardet couldn’t match Thomas today and it will be a tough ask for him to win the title. Ag2R potentially will change their approach and be aggressive by getting Gallopin up the road.

Guillaume Martin.

Birthday boy, the Wanty rider has impressed me so far and he is definitely one of my favourite Pro-Conti level climbers. He sits a rather awkward 4:15 down on GC so it might cause Sky into chasing but then again, they would fancy reducing the gap on the final climb and he wouldn’t be much of a threat the following day after being in the break all day.

Michael Valgren.

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Yep, you read that right. He’s been super impressive so far this race, staying with Bilbao deep into the climbs. With his team-leader falling away a bit today, the Dane might be given the opportunity to chase his own result tomorrow. He’s a brute of a rider, but when he burst onto the scene he was considered a potential GC rider in the future. Can he roll back the clock? He finished 14th on the similarly short stage in Paris Nice this year.

Dylan Teuns.

The BMC rider just disappeared from the head of the standings on stage 2, where he finished 5 minutes down, and followed that up by coming home 13 minutes behind on stage 4. I thought he could have potentially been ill but a 33rd place today after helping Caruso would suggest that he is either on the mend, or was deliberately losing time. He has the ability to win this tomorrow from a breakaway group.

Short Stages – Overkill?

Just a quick few thoughts on short stages in general.

I can understand where organisers are coming from in trying to put in a short stage here or there to spice things up and throw the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons, but to have three in a row here is just odd and overkill in my opinion. The whole point of having a short stage is so to entice riders into going full gas one day and completely shake up the order of a race. Having more than one in a row means that a rider might be concerned the following stage could be that day so they won’t want to waste their reserves on the wrong day and completely blow up when the action happens. It could, rather ironically, lead to more boring racing if everyone expects a GC raid kind of day and instead just rides defensively.

One of the reasons cycling is so interesting to follow in my opinion is the wide variety of stage you can get, but these short days are all “samey”. I’m a fan of them occasionally, but just not this much!

Prediction

The birthday boy to win. Allez Guillaume! (for the second time this race)

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Betting

1pt GMartin @ 25/1

0.5pt Gallopin @ 125/1

0.5pt Valgren @ 100/1

0.5pt Teuns @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? How will the stage pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Where I give my opinions on the compelling world of professional bicycle racing

Today’s Recap

The Route

How will the stage pan out?

Yellow Jersey Battle.

Breton Boys

Prediction

Betting

Today’s Recap

The Route

How will the stage pan out?

One-Two Step

Prediction

Betting

Today’s Recap

The Route

Contenders and Pretenders

Prediction

Betting

Today’s Recap

The Route

Contenders

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Betting

Today’s Recap

The Route

What Can We Learn From Today?

The Outside Picks for Tomorow.

Prediction

Betting

The Route

The Old Guard vs the New Wave

Prediction

Betting

The Favourite

The Waiting for Froome to falter-ers

The Podium Outsiders

Top 10 Fillers

The Pretenders

Prediction

Betting

The Route and Stage Contenders

Contenders

Prediction

Coverage

GC Overview

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Sprinters

Prediction

Coverage

Velogames

Today’s Recap

The Route

How will the stage pan out?

Short Stages – Overkill?

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Betting

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