Innsbruck 2018 World Championships: Men’s Road Race Preview

Innsbruck 2018 World Championships: Men’s Road Race Preview

After an exciting week of racing, the elite men have a lot to live up to tomorrow!

In 2017 we saw a tactical race but one that came down to a bunch sprint in the end, despite numerous attacks in the closing lap. So the best rider in that situation, Sagan, took what was his third title in a row, just edging out home favourite Kristoff.

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Matthews completed the podium in third place.

Sagan is going for 4 wins in a row but given the tough parcours awaiting him tomorrow it looks unlikely but you can never discount the Slovakian. Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

A long day out in the saddle at a shade over 261kms but combined with 5000m of elevation gain according to LaFlammeRouge, it will also be a brutally tough one.

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To start off with the peloton faces 60kms of flat, albeit slightly rolling roads before they make it to the Gnadenwald climb, which will be familiar to those who did the time trial earlier in the week. download (40)

Very steep in the opening 2.5km, averaging roughly 10%, it has been used so far this week as a climb to thin down the bunch, but with just under 200km to go once over the top then I can’t see that being the case this time.

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The riders then move on to complete 6 full laps of the main circuit, and once more up the Igls climb for good measure.

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The climb isn’t too tough when taken on its own but as we have seen throughout this week, that if teams come to the front and put the pace on then it can cause some damage. Seven ascents of it will certainly take its toll!

The descent might also play a part in the day.

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It is very fast and the best going downhill can cause some issues for those that are less competent and confident. There are a few technical bends within Igls for example but nothing too crazy but it is a road that you can string some corners together nicely.

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After the last ascent of the Igls climb, the riders don’t complete the normal circuit, taking a detour to the much talked about “Hell” climb. At 11.5% for 2.8km it is a brutally steep ascent to be taking on at this point in the day and it will be one that will strike fear into many. It is *only* 3kms long though so it will tempt the puncheurs but will they be there to fight it out?

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The descent off of the climb is technical and will suit a solo rider well, before they return to the riverside and the familiar final 2.5kms that we’ve seen over the past few days.

How will the race pan out?

Beats me.

The usual rule of thumb for the Worlds is that the U23s and elite ment follow a similar pattern but that was thrown out the window a little last year. Plus, with the addition of the Hell climb in only the men’s race, we might see some teams wait until then, just like in a Fleche Wallone for example.

However, I do think the course is challenging enough before then for some serious attacks to go clear on the penultimate or last ascent of the Igls climb. There are several teams here with solid second options, or main riders in a nation that might not be classed as one of the favourites, so they have an opportunity to go early and anticipate any action later. Although I’m sure they would be happy if there was no action later!

Like I said in my preview for the women’s race, you have to be willing to lose the race to win it. Given how strong the likes of Valverde and Alaphilippe should be on the final climb, I think we might see quite a few riders plan to go early.

If the majority of the big nations, i.e. Spain, France, Italy, GB and Belgium, have a rider in a late attack there is a good chance that it stays away. That is the option that I’m going with for the following!

Four Hell-raisers

Basically my four riders to watch that aren’t any of the clear and obvious favourites, although one of them kind of is…

Jakob Fuglsang.

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Cast your mind back to Rio 2016 where Fuglsang finished second after a tough day out in the saddle. On that day he was one of the strongest and almost pulled van Avermaet across to Majka when chasing the Pole. So far this year he has produced some very strong and consistent results but has only picked up one win. His race schedule after the Tour has been pretty light and he’s focussed mainly on recovering from that race and building slowly for here. In the Canadian races he did some good training on the attack and doing work for team-mates. Has he timed that peak well?

Rafal Majka.

Rio rider number two, Majka came very close to winning the race but was caught in the final couple of kilometres and had to settle for bronze. In the recent Vuelta he looked to be strong in the final couple of stages and was on the attack in others, honing his form. Looking back, it is interesting to see that he made the break on both of the really steep summit finishes, stages 13 and 17. Getting some practice in for the Hell climb? It will be interesting to see how him and Kwiatkowski approach the race but I expect one of them to attack early and go from there. He’s not one to be underestimated.

Adam Yates.

I mentioned during the final week of the Vuelta that his form seemed to be on the up and he seems to provide a good second option for the British team, with the other obviously being his brother. A former winner of San Sebastian, a race that many say is a good form indicator for this course, he is a rider a lot of people will be wary of. Compared to Simon, Adam is the Yates with a better track record in the “classic” one-day races. Will this be of an advantage?

Tim Wellens.

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It’s pretty much blasphemous to have a short list of riders for a Worlds, even if they are outsiders, and not include a Belgian! The lowland nation has had a good championships so far and they will be looking to go out with a bang tomorrow. On paper they might not have stand-out riders for a route like this but Wellens, Benoot and Teuns could all go deep into the race. I expect them to be one of the most aggressive teams and they will look to animate the final 50kms. Wellens has had a great year and continues to develop into a very strong all round rider who can handle any terrain. He was flying at the start of the season before his form took a little dip but he seems to be on the way back up again. It would certainly be a dangerous tactic to give him any freedom.

Prediction

A lot of the main favourites to wait it out until the Hell climb but by then the race will be too far ahead.

Adam Yates to win after attacking on the penultimate ascent of Igls and forming a strong group that stays away before he drops them all on that now famous climb.

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Betting

I already have Yates from during the Vuelta but I’d still back him now, treating myself points wise after a very good women’s race today.

2pts WIN Yates @ 14/1 with various

1pt EW Majka @ 50/1 with SkyBet, Coral etc (would take 33s)

1pt EW Fuglsang @ 50/1 with various

1pt EW Wellens @ 50/1 with Skybet, Coral etc (would take 33s)

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

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Innsbruck 2018 World Championships – Women’s ITT Preview

Last year saw clear favourite for the day Annemiek van Vleuten take home the rainbow jersey for the first time in her career with a strong performance but one that might not have been as dominant as some expected. Nonetheless, she got the job done and returns this year once again as the rider to beat.

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Compatriot Anna van der Breggen won the silver medal while Australia’s Katrin Garfoot took home bronze in her last World Championships. Both came home within 20 seconds of Van Vleuten and van der Breggen will be desperate to finally get one over her this year. First though, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders throughout the afternoon.

The Route

A rolling course but how much it “rolls” depends on what resource you consult. According to the organisers there are 262m of total ascent over the 27.8km whereas with the Strava/Veloviewer profile I made has it at 396m. Bit of a discrepancy there!

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Given how much Strava over exaggerates some of the tiny little changes in altitude, I would have to agree that it will be closer to the official profile – maybe around 300m at most.

Either way, you can view the interactive VV profile here.

The route can really be split into two parts with the first 15km very straight forward aside from a couple of small bumps and rises before the more challenging second half.

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As witnessed in the men’s U23 this afternoon though, it isn’t that challenging compared to what it could have been, with the riders able to hold a lot of speed coming off of the descents. In fact, some riders hit 100km/h in sections so you can effectively nullify some of the rises by carrying enough speed. Therefore, having the right gearing will be important and it will be interesting to see what approaches the riders take.

Weather conditions look set to be similar-ish all day, although the wind might get slightly stronger later on, albeit by only 1km/h or so. That means over 3km of headwind before the crossing the river and turning left, with the majority of the rest of the course being aided by a slight cross/tail wind.

You can view the start list/times here.

Can anyone stop van Vleuten?

The reigning champion skipped the trade team event on Sunday so that she could be fully focussed and rested for tomorrow, and given her results in the individual events this year, who can blame her. In 2018 she has taken to the start for 4 TTs (not counting prologues or epilogues, see the TDU), with the Dutch woman winning 3 of them. In fact, the only race she didn’t win was her national championship where she finished 4th and behind the other three compatriots that are going to be here competing too.

In an interview with CyclingNews van Vleuten explains that she came into the season with three intended peaks. One smaller peak during the Spring Classics before a bigger peak for the Giro and then the Worlds. It is safe to say that the peak for the Giro was certainly “bigger”! She blew away the competition in that race and followed it up with my favourite finish to a race of the year, when she pipped van der Breggen in the closing 100m of La Course. I don’t think it is possible for her to be in even better shape than she was at the Giro, but if she arrives here in a similar vein of form then she is rightly the favourite.

The course tomorrow isn’t bad for her, but I think she would have preferred the climbs to be more challenging than they are, so she can really make a difference compared to some of the more traditional power TT riders.

Nonetheless, she has a big say in the outcome of the day and it will require her to be at less than 100% and for one of the other riders to be flying for her to lose.

It was all…Oranje?

We could feasibly see an all Dutch top 4 tomorrow.

Ellen van Dijk.

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The current and back-to-back European Champion will arrive here wanting to redeem herself after what was a disappointing 5th place in last year’s edition. The Sunweb rider is one of the most powerful in the women’s peloton and the mix of flat and rolling hills looks very good for her. She actually goes out quite early on in the day in what is a strong group of riders around that time. Guess that’s what happens when numerous nations have more than one person here!

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Said group of strong riders

Lucinda Brand.

The first Dutch rider down the ramp has the luxury of being the 5th rider out on the course. 2018 has been her best season to date and she has really developed as a rider, moving away from being just a strong one-day contender, into a much better climber. Her form doesn’t seem to be great at the moment though and I think she might struggle for a good result here: a top 10 would be solid.

Anna van der Breggen.

Arguably one of my favourite female cyclists so I am a bit biased but a lot has been made of her “poor season” in 2018. It says a lot that then considering she has won 5 races this year and numerous podium places. In the Spring she was untouchable and the only thing that stopped another Ardennes Triple happening was team tactics at Amstel. She has failed to win since Durango in May though and I think that has effected her a little bit. In TTs this season she has won 1 out of 4, finishing 2nd twice and third the other time. The course here looks great for her and she’s been slowly riding herself into form at the Boels Ladies Tour. If there is one rider who I think has a chance of beating van Vleuten, it is her.

Fight for the podium

If we’re to make the assumption that at least one, if not two of the podium spots will be secured by the Dutch, heck, even all three could as I’ve alluded to above, who is going to be the nearest challengers?

Amber Neben.

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A surprise winner of the 2016 edition, she was pretty atrocious by her lofty standards in 2017. A wax on wax off kind of rider though, she appears to be smashing it so far this year having won all 4 of the time trials she has entered. Maybe this is a wax on year?

Lisa Brennauer.

Disappointing in the European Championships, some of that can be attributed to her going deep on the track at the same competition. During the TTT event she looked to be the main driving force behind Wiggle’s strong time so there is definitely some form there. A bit hit or miss on road TTs, the 2014-champion can’t be ruled out on a rolling course.

Trixi Worrack.

Like her German compatriot, she seemed to be one of the main driving forces behind her teams sensational TTT win on Sunday. I’d have to say the course isn’t ideal for her but she did surprise and come third at the Euros so we could see something similar tomorrow.

Some outsiders to keep an eye on for finishing in or around the top 5 include; Thomas, Uttrup Ludwig and Cordon.

Prediction

For the TTTs I thought they were both two-horse races and in the end it was the third favourite who ended up winning. Tomorrow looks like a one-horse race but with a few riders who are ready to pounce. It will be incredibly tough to beat van Vleuten but I think it might actually happen and we’ll see van der Breggen take the win!

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I think she has timed her peak perfectly for this week and if she is at a similar level to her Spring campaign where she just rode away from everyone – the course will be a piece of cake for her.

Van Vleuten to come second with Neben rounding out the podium in third.

Betting

Another race that I can lose some money on!

Win only markets for the race and given that AVV is still the favourite, I don’t want to go wild with them.

1.5pt WIN AVDB @ 5/1 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)

Some H2H do entice me though.

4pts WIN van der Breggen to beat Van Dijk @ 3/4 (Unibet)

2pts WIN Neben to beat Van Dijk @ 7/2 (B365) – the price is just too big for a wax on year

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.