Tour Down Under 2017 – GC Preview

The curtain raiser for this year’s cycling calendar will once again be the Tour Down Under, a race which I’ve grown fond over the past few years. I’m not sure if that’s because we’ve been starved of action over the winter break or if it is becoming one of the more exciting races of the season. Probably a mixture of both, if not slightly more the former!

Nonetheless, the organisers have made a few tweaks to the normal parcours and we have what is arguably the toughest TdU route in history. So let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders over the coming week.

The Route

Stage 1 sees the riders tackle 145km from Unley to Lyndoch.

Three laps around a large finishing circuit with a few hills could create a surprise. However, with the gradients being so small on these climbs and only 1,600m of elevation gain, then this should be one for the sprinters. With a very simple-run in, this should be a fast finish to the opening road stage!

Stage 2 is the Queen stage of this years TDU in terms of climbing metres, seeing the riders return to the finish in Paracombe that Rohan Dennis won back in 2015.

The laps around Stirling will certainly sap the legs before the tough finale. Unlike 2015, the riders approach the climb differently and the road actually heads upwards for around 10kms, with the main section before the climb to Paracombe itself coming in at 3.9km averaging 4%. Could this make all the difference? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see, but expect some fireworks!

Stage 3 sees the peloton head south from Adelaide towards Victor Harbor.

Potential cross-winds and a committed team could see a GC shake up. A tired peloton could be put under stress on the closing circuit’s climbs (1.7km at 2.5% and 1.3km at 3.7%) but it should end in some type of bunch sprint.

Stage 4 is an up and down day and actually has the second largest amount of elevation gain at the TdU.

Nonetheless it should be a sprint at the end of the stage, but it could be the only breakaway day we get if no one wants to work behind. Interestingly, the finish kicks up at around 2.1% average for the final kilometre.

Stage 5 and the traditional stage finish up Willunga Hill.

Nothing else to say really, this stage is all about that 6-7 minute effort at the end.

Stage 6 once again sees the race close with a 90km criterium around Adelaide

I can’t wait for the couple of sheer walls that the riders face 😉. Also, this is just one lap as I have neither the time nor patience to repeat the route 20 times! We might see some GC riders go for time bonuses if the race is that close but this stage is all about the sprinters as you’d expect. Who’ll close the race with a win?

So overall it is a tougher race than previous years but it’s still very much in the balance between the proper climbers and the puncheurs. Willunga is tough, but ultimately it is only a 7 minute effort and the same goes for Paracombe. There are no 30 minute climbs here on which the really light guys can make a massive difference, this race will once again come down to seconds and I expect the top 10 to be separated by no more than a minute. Who’s going to be in contention for the title then?

GC Contenders

Richie Porte (a.k.a The King of Willunga) is the favourite and rightly so.

He’s untouchable on that climb when in good form and he will find the extra climbing before Paracombe to his liking. The problem with Richie is that he doesn’t have the ability to pick up bonus seconds elsewhere and that the steeper gradients of Paracombe aren’t his cup of tea. Nonetheless, if he is in form then he should win on Willunga and possibly podium up to Paracombe which should be enough to win the race. However, we don’t know where his form is at due to him skipping Nationals. If he really wants to challenge at the Tour de France, is it not too early to be at 90% here? Hmmm, it could go either way with him! Supporting him will be Rohan Dennis who is capable of taking up the leadership role if Porte isn’t at the top-level.

Orica come in with two leaders; Esteban Chaves and Simon Gerrans. This will be the Colombian’s first time racing in Australia and he’ll be competing at the Herald Sun Tour later in the month. This route would be ideal for him if he was in top form but I get the feeling that this could be more of a PR stunt from him and the team. Instead, it will be Gerrans who will lead the main charge for Orica as he looks to pick up his 5th Overall victory here. This will be the last chance to do so as he finally appears to be dwindling as a rider going by his form last year. I’m not convinced he can manage it but he’s sure to leave everything on the road! Plus it is January and we are in Australia so you never know!

Sky also come into the race with a two-pronged attack of Geraint Thomas and Sergio Henao. The latter was 3rd overall here last year and I’d expect him to be their main rider again, although Thomas may stretch is legs at some point. Henao is the main challenger to Porte in my opinion.

The other rider in the above photo is also a contender for this race, Michael Woods. After coming to the sport late, he took a breakthrough 3rd place on Willunga last year. If he’s improved from then he can certainly contend once again this year, plus he’s been putting in some impressive rides on Strava. Will that translate to results? I’m not so sure as he still seems to be lacking the tactical awareness needed for bike racing, but hey, if he can ride everyone off his wheel then he doesn’t need to!

I can’t see Sagan doing anything GC wise here, instead his teammate McCarthy looked very strong and more importantly lean at the Bay Crits and Road Nats and certainly could contend.

Aside from these guys, it is a fairly open field and I do think there is a chance that an outsider could sneak onto the podium so in MyTwoSpokesWorth tradition I’ll highlight 3 to watch out for.

(There is a slight bias as 2 of them are in my Fantasy Team for this season. This may be a recurring theme and I can only apologise 😜)

Nathan Haas.

Another who was testing his legs at the Bay Crits and took 3rd place at the Road Nats. He seems really fired up for this and it’s his main goal early on in the year before taking a break and going to the Giro. A bit of a stop start season in 2016, his performances in Canada looked a return to form and he seems to have continued that over the Australian summer. Not the best natural climber in the field, he’ll need a bit of luck to go his way but I wouldn’t write him off! His fast kick could be crucial to pick up bonus seconds.

Petr Vakoc is the second of my fantasy riders and there’s good reason for that; he’s an incredible talent!

After an OK TdU last year, his opening to the European season was amazing. Having been out in Australia since before New Year he seems fired up to lead Etixx at the first race of the season. A proper brute of a rider, his strength should see him be able to match some of the lighter climbers and with a Tour de France now in his legs he should be even better this year. I’m intrigued more than anything to see what he can do.

My final rider is one had a solid year and I was very impressed with on several occasions but his results didn’t quite show it; Jan Bakelants. Top 20 in the Vuelta followed some good showings in the Tour he just didn’t take any big wins. Like Vakoc, he was very strong at the start of the European cycling calendar and I’m hoping that will translate to something here!

Prediction

A toss-up between Porte and Henao for the win I think and it’s quite tough to call. Porte could well be peaking for the Tour but will want to make a statement here and Henao hasn’t raced since the Olympics so both of their form really is unknown. I’ll go for the King of Willunga himself to take the win, with Haas rounding out the podium!

I just hope the racing is exciting and unpredictable as it could potentially be! Although saying that, easy stages make my job easier. 😏

Betting

I distanced myself from GC betting towards the end of last year and it’s something I’ll probably be doing this year too. Nonetheless, I think there is a bit of value in small stake punts on my 3 outsiders.

0.1pt EW Vakoc @80/1 with various bookmakers (would go to 66/1)

0.1pt EW Haas @ 66/1 with Bet365 (would go to 50/1)

0.1pt EW Bakelants @ 80/1 with Bet365 (would go to 66/1).

Thanks everyone for reading, it’s good to be back! Any shares/RTs would be much appreciated as usual and any feedback via Twitter is always more than welcome. Who do you think will win? Does an outsider have a chance of sneaking onto the podium? I shall be doing daily previews of the stages, aside from the People’s Choice Crit as I have no time for that! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Men’s Road Race World Championships Preview – Doha 2016

*Apologies, this preview is not up to my usual standards as I am terribly hungover and only have an hour to write it before a family meal. Should have written in advance, my bad!*

Last year saw an incredibly exciting race and Sagan showed his strength with a devastating attack out the peloton on the final lap. He wasn’t to be seen again!

Can he make it back to back wins? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for them.

The Route

A jaunt around the desert followed by 7 laps of the Pearl Circuit.

Don’t expect any great scenery out on the course as they travel through the desert. We might see a few camels running beside the peloton!

There’s not really much more to say about the route, it is very dull to be honest. The only way this race doesn’t become a snoozefest if things get a spicy out in the desert. Speaking of which…

Weather Watch

Fingers crossed for wind!

screen-shot-2016-10-15-at-15-26-13 — Forecast for Al Khor Airport

It looks like we will get some wind, but annoyingly just now it’s too much off a headwind (going out) to make a difference. Opposite direction on the way back. However, as we’ve seen over this past week, the wind can change direction and speed at will. With the barren landscape on offer, there will be nothing to protect the riders from the wind so they will have to be vigilant at all times. Even the smallest of changes in direction could split things up, and I’m sure there will be a few teams interested in doing so.

How will the race pan out?

No wind = snoozefest = sprint.

Wind = anything could happen.

I think (maybe wishfully) that the race will be split up in the desert, so I’ll be writing from that angle. Plus there will be plenty of other previews out there that will discuss the pure sprinters anyway!

So in my multiverse the wind reaps havoc on the peloton out in the Qatari desert. How much damage will it do? Well, that depends on how hard the teams with numbers go and the composition of the front group. It could be possible that the peloton maybe halves in size relatively early on into the race. However, that group is still far too big and it fractures again with 30 riders or so off the front. These riders then power on and those behind have no chance of returning. Depending who’s made it into that group, it could well go all the way to the line once we reach the circuit but this is unlikely. Instead, I would expect more attacks with either a solo rider getting away or a small group of 12-15 riders contesting the finish.

There will be enough teams and riders who won’t want to drag the best sprinters in the world to the line, so look to the Classics specialists.

Sagan is a safe option for both scenarios but he will probably want a harder race to get rid of some of the faster sprinters. Saying that, there are few who can match Sagan in a sprint after 250km so he will be confident of his chances either way!

Belgium will turn to Boonen as their all-weather guy, although they have a very strong team for this type of race, especially if the wind does pick up. Van Avermaet & Naesen provide great back options and should offer strength in numbers if there are echelons.

The Dutch have Groenewegen who has shown he can handle crosswinds and echelons, but they also could turn to the likes of Terpstra to make a late attack from a reduced bunch. Along with the Belgians, they are the most likely team to try to cause some havoc.

Another sprinter who enjoys riding in the crosswinds is Norwegian Alexander Kristoff, like Sagan, he should be there in both situations. He’s been a bit off the boil this year but that could be a good thing, saving himself for this race and going under the radar. He’ll want to get rid of the likes of Cavendish and Kittel, making his job a lot easier. Importantly for him, the Norwegian team is very strong for this type of parcours with a lot of big engines for flat riding.

Other sprinters who will enjoy tough conditions include Démare, Gaviria and one of the favourites, Greipel. It will be hard for these guys to win in the situation of a blown to bits peloton, as no one will want to drag them to the line.

For a potential late attacker, look to Tony Martin. He’s been in great form in Doha winning the TTT and the TT, why not add the road race title to that collection too? There will be very few riders capable of bringing him back if he does escape with around 20km to and those chasing will have to be going full gas to get close.

Not as strong as Martin, but someone who is also on good form is Stybar. He looked very strong in Binche and has the capabilities to win a small group sprint or attack with a kilometre to go.

Prediciton

However, I’m going for none of the above. I mean it wouldn’t be right if in my final preview of the year I didn’t stick to tradition and go with an outsider?!

Instead, I think Matteo Trentin will be the new World Champion. Left-field I know, but hear me out. He rides for Etixx as his trade team and is very good in tough, windy conditions but more often than not he has to work as a domestique. However, here I think he will be given more of a free role and the chance to look after himself if things do get wild. Finishing 4th in his last two races (both this month) show that he has some good form. He has the speed to win from a very reduced bunch but also the bravery to attack from that group too if there are faster riders. Forza Matteo!

And after saying all of that, Sagan will probably win.

Betting

It’s not a race I want to get heavily involved in and if we don’t get crosswinds, I won’t be watching until the last 10km. So a few outside shots to keep me interested

0.2pt WIN Trentin @ 150/1 with Coral (I’d take 100/1 that’s widely available)

0.1pt WIN Naesen @ 250/1 with Coral and Betfred

0.1pt WIN Stybar @ 200/1 with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Betvictor

0.1pt WIN Martin @ 250/1 with PaddyPower/Betfair/Coral

This is most likely my last preview of the year so a final thanks for reading and apologies again if this isn’t as succinct as normal, my brain isn’t functioning at 100%. I may have something for the Abu Dhabi Tour but I’m not promising anything. Working on a few ideas to keep this going through winter, any suggestions will be taken on board! As usual any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Women’s ITT World Championship – Doha 2016

Last year saw an incredibly close race, with the top 4 riders separated by less than 10 seconds. It was New Zealand rider Linda Villumsen who came out on top edging Anna Van der Breggen to the title, with Lisa Brennauer rounding out the podium.

With Villumsen not here this year, there is a chance for someone else to step up and win the Rainbow Jersey. It won’t be an easy task for the riders though as they’ll have to contend with tough conditions. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for them.

The Route

The Elite women tackle the exact same course that we saw the U23 Men complete today. Almost two full laps of the Pearl circuit, totalling 28.9km.

There a few tight roundabouts and corners, but most of the circuit is fast and sweeping with very little elevation gain. Being able to carry speed through the corners will help massively so good bike handling skills are essential, but also a bit of bravery to take more risks out on course will help to set a good time. That’s about it really, nothing much else to say!

However, the main challenge for the riders will be the conditions.

Weather Watch

As we’ve witness in both the team time trial and the U23 TT today, the heat plays a huge part in the outcome of the race. Heat management and efficient use of energy are crucial in the 35 degree plus weather. The riders will be bitterly disappointed to see that they’re in for more of the same tomorrow, but what else can be expected when the World Champs are held in a desert!

screen-shot-2016-10-10-at-15-34-27 — Windfinder data for Doha

With the temperature set to be even hotter than today there could be more riders struggling tomorrow. The late starters will benefit from a slight drop in temperature but the wind appears to pick up for them. The section of the course furthest from the start (most easterly) will be the area where those riders will face a stiff headwind. However, for the rest of the course it should even itself out and as we saw today, the wind direction and speed can change almost instantaneously.

The start order can be found here.

Contenders

My unsuccessful pick for the Olympic TT, Ellen Van Dijk, starts as the bookies favourite and deservedly so. Aside from running off the road in Rio, where she would have finished on the podium otherwise, and third at the Chrono Champenois, Van Dijk has looked incredibly strong this year. This type of power course will suit here well but her sometimes lackadaisical bike handling could be of detriment. If she stays upright and is confident in the corners then she will be tough to beat. Not impossible, but tough!

Her Dutch team-mate Anna Van der Breggen will be hoping to do just that. Arguably one of the riders of the season, the Olympic and European road race champion is a very solid TTer too, having made the podium at both those events in the individual discipline. She would probably want a hillier course to have a better chance but she can’t be ruled out because of her form. I just think there are riders more suited to this terrain than her.

One of those is Olympic silver medalist Olga Zabelinskaya. The 36-year old Russian is in the twilight of her career but has pulled off some remarkable rides this season and if she has continued that form then she is a real contender. She recently finished 2nd at the Chrono Champenois, beating Van Dijk.

The rider who beat them both that day? Katrin Garfoot. The Aussie champion has had one of her best seasons on the bike to date. She’s a solid climber but her area of expertise is time trialling. Finishing just off the podium at last year’s event, she’ll be here for revenge and looks in good form. Keep an eye out for her!

The third prong in the Dutch arsenal is Annemiek van Vlueten. After her horror crash at the Olympics she bounced back to win the Lotto Belgium Tour which was great to see! Another rider who can do a bit of everything the current Dutch TT champ will be aiming for nothing less than the top spot! She goes out the earliest of her team-mates so could benefit from the weaker wind or conversely suffer more in the heat.

As for the other riders?

I’m not confident of Lisa Brennauer‘s chances. Third last year, her time trialling has been a bit hit and miss so far this year and she’s yet to win an event. Managing to pick up numerous podiums, maybe I am being a bit on harsh on her, but the signs aren’t great. Nonetheless, Canyon performed better than expected in the TTT, so maybe she can turn it around too?

Amber Neben and Carmen Small could be in or around the top 5 for the USA as well.

There is one outsider I like the look of and that’s Ashleigh Moolman. The South African is in great form at the moment and will relish the tough conditions. She rode well for her team on Sunday which will have given her confidence for this event. Another rider who would probably prefer a hill or two, she certainly will give it her all!

Prediction

Now for that time I cast the #HaugheyCurse upon some poor soul. There is a great chance we could see a Dutch 1-2-3, but it’s bad enough me ruining one riders chances, let alone a whole nation’s 😉

Van Dijk rightly is favourite, but I do really rate the chances of Katrin Garfoot for this course. Out of the top 5 favourites, she’s probably the rider who will benefit most from the flat course. Performing well in the Tour of Qatar earlier this year, she will be no stranger to the tough conditions and combining that with her good recent form, I think she’s on the cusp of a great victory!

Sincerest apologies Katrin!

Betting

1pt WIN Garfoot at 5/1 with Unibet (I’d take the 9/2 with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Skybet)

0.25pt EW Moolman at 50/1 with Bet365/Ladbrokes

*Update* Added this H2H treble with B365 that I like.

0.5pt on at 4.37/1

Thanks for reading! Can you see past the Dutch trio and will the #HaugheyCurse finally be over? Who do you think will win? As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated. I shall have the men’s TT preview out tomorrow evening. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Team Time Trial World Championships – Doha 2016 Preview

The last and main TTT of the year will once again see a trade team crowned as the World Champions. The winners really should get some kind of jersey/marking on the trade team jersey to signify their victory in my opinion! It’s also a shame that the discipline isn’t utilised more by race organisers in the World Tour or even at ProConti level. Anyway, I digress…

Team time trials are a great watch for the cycling purist, with a fine balance between power, speed and finesse. Last year saw BMC win the men’s race with Velocio-Sram taking home the women’s race.

That victory was an incredible 4th in a row for Velocio (formerly Lululemon and now Canyon SRAM)! Can they make it 5 here? Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Both the men and women will compete over the exact same 40km course. Leaving from the Lusail sports complex and finishing on the Pearl of Qatar.

As you can see, the course is bookended by two technical sections with a big ol’ power section in between. On closer inspection the jaunt around the Lusail Sports Centre is actually 14km long. This includes several roundabouts, sharp 90-degree corners and a few hairpin turns for good measure! These obstacles are separated by 500m to 1km long straights where the power can be put down.

The pure power section follows, with approximately 10km of almost dead-straight road before we start getting into a more populous area again. The final 8.5km of the race features no less than 18 roundabouts to traverse! Some of them can be taken full speed as the racing line is straight, however there are others that will knock the speed off. It could be a case of who’s willing to take the most risks. Aside from the roundabouts, the best way to describe the Pearl section is “sweeping”.

This video shows what the riders will be faced with come Sunday; how wide the roads are etc. Pretty wide is the answer, as you would expect in Qatar! Therefore a lot of these roundabouts can be taken closer to full speed than they first may seem. Again, it could come down to who takes the biggest risks.

Men’s Race

The favourites for the men’s event has to be BMC. Reigning champions, they are a very powerful unit and have mastered the art of this discipline perfectly. We saw at Eneco that they looked comfortable, although their winning margin doesn’t suggest that, on a course that didn’t really suit them perfectly. This course is 75% about pure power and BMC are the best TTT unit for that. The opening 10km will be a challenge for them but if they can get through that unscathed then they will be tough to beat. The only lingering doubt is can they handle the pressure of being favourites?

Their main challengers will probably be Etixx. They were the team that ran them closest at Eneco and are traditionally a very good TTT unit, having won this race back in 2012 and 2013. With a team full of strong rouleurs this course suits them very well and they’ll be quietly confident about winning it. I would expect nothing less than a podium from them!

Movistar arrive with a very good team on paper but they often flatter to deceive in team time trials, especially of this length. They took a breakthrough third place last year but their form in the discipline this year has been a bit so-so. I’m not confident that they’ll be able to turn it around here.

A team that I am more confident can turn their poor form around is Orica. The Aussie outfit was famed for their TTT ability in the early years after their formation but they’ve stagnated recently. For Doha, they’ve brought a quietly unassuming team but one that is very well-rounded. With the majority of the riders being from the southern hemisphere (poor old Svein Tuft) they should in theory cope with the heat better than most. I expect them to podium, if not better!

As for the other teams? LottoNL Jumbo could potentially pull off a surprise but if they were ever going to get a TTT result it was going to be at Eneco. They didn’t manage then so I don’t see them going well here. Astana and Giant will hope to sneak in to the top five which would be a great result for them. Sky? Great TTT in the Vuelta but the team has been in disarray since this whole TUE malarkey and I can’t see them being fully focussed to go well.

Women’s Race

Disappointingly there are only 8 teams here, with the favourites being Boels Dolmans. If you think BMC are clear favourites for the men’s race, they aren’t a patch on Boels if you look at results. The squad has been utterly dominant in TTTs this year winning every race, except for the Tour of California TTT. A group of very talented riders, the only way they will lose this is by making mistakes out on the course or if one of the other teams has an incredible day. Both of which are possible!

Canyon SRAM will be looking for their 5th title in a row, but they have performed below expectation this year. They finished 1:41 down on Boels at the Vargarda TTT (also 40km) back in August but came home second in the slightly more recent Ladies Tour event. Will they continue this upward trajectory and pull something out of the bag? Probably not.

Both Cervelo Bigla & Rabo-Liv have come close to beating Boels this year and will both be confident of making the podium. The real challenge for them will be if they can make it all the way on to the top step. On a good day they most certainly could and I’m hoping they perform well to run Boels close, potentially cleaning up if the Dutch outfit make a mistake.

Twenty-16 were the team that beat Boels in the Tour of California. However, there is a big difference between a 20km TTT in your home country, compared to a 40km effort elsewhere. They do have some very talented track pursuit riders in their team but I think it will be too much for them. I can’t really see any surprises from the other 3 teams but you never know. Zabelinskaya may pull Bepink round herself!

Prediction

BMC should win, but I have a very good feeling about Orica for some strange reason. (Not that that has ever helped before 😉 ) So instead of going for the favourites I’ll suggest the Aussie outfit win it by less than 5 seconds!

Similar situation in the women’s race. Boels are clear favourites but it’s boring going for odds on favourites. Instead, I’ll pluck for Rabo-Liv to take home the race!

Watch BMC and Boels go on and win comfortably now.

Betting

The favourites are priced accordingly, if not a bit conservatively by the bookies but I’ve found a couple of angles I like.

0.5pt EW Orica @ 18/1 with Ladbrokes.

They’re paying out 1/3 odds for 2 places and I think there’s a good chance Orica could make the top 2 or at least should be thereabouts. Looks a good value bet in comparison to poor odds for Movistar and Etixx. Other bookmakers might offer more places later on, or a top 3 market, but I wouldn’t hold your breath on that!

0.125pt WIN Cervelo Bigla @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes.

0.125pt WIN Rabo Liv @ 16/1 with Bet365.

Unfortunately there’s no EW betting for the women’s race, as both of these teams are priced on the generous side if you could get a top 2/3 place. Nonetheless, I think they offer a bit of value just in case if Boels mess up or these teams are on an incredible day.

Congrats if you made it all the way down to here and thanks again for reading! How do you think the races will pan out? Will both of the obvious favourites win comfortably? Or is there a chance of an upset? As usual, any feedback is greatly appreciated! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

Rio Olympics 2016 – Men and Women’s ITT Preview

Mixing things up with a joint preview!

After the dramatic events over the weekend, the riders have a couple of days rest before the Individual Time Trial on Wednesday.

The Route

The TT takes place over the Grumari circuit that was used during the Road Race.

As you can see, the route is a mixed bag of short climbs and long periods of rolling roads. This really opens up the type of rider who can win, as some climbers will fancy it but so will some of the TT specialists. I guess nowadays though, a lot of good climbers are solid TTers as well and vice versa!

The few uncategorised lumps at the start of the route will sap the legs before the first “official” climb on the route; the Grumari Climb. Don’t let the short length deceive you (1.3km long), the average gradient is steep at 9.4%. However, this isn’t the whole story, as the second half of the climb is much tougher, with peaks of 24%. The second climb (Grota Funda) is a much steadier affair, clocking in at 2.1km long and only averaging 6.8%.

Neither of these climbs are alpine, but they will certainly pose a test, especially on a TT bike. As will the descents.

However, it’s not only the climbs that will worry the riders. They will be concerned about the section of cobbles that runs along the coast. This stretch of road caused issues in both the men’s and women’s races with riders dropping chains etc. The stronger riders will certainly be hoping to take advantage of it as the lighter riders struggle to get power down.

After the final descent, the riders will have around 8km of flat road left. They’ll need to save some energy for this as it is possible to lose a lot of time here.

The men follow the exact same route as the women, but complete the circuit twice!

Female Contenders

Fresh off her RR win, Anna van der Breggen comes into this race as the bookies favourite. She’s had a great season so far, and has performed well in TTs, recently finishing 2nd at the Giro Rosa time trial. Furthermore, finishing 2nd at last years World’s shows that she can last the distance. I would not be surprised if she doubles up!

Current World Champ Linda Villumsen was on the attack yesterday on the Grumari circuit, obviously wanting to test her legs and have a look at the course at race speed. With her racing in America, it’s hard to gauge her form, but I don’t think she’s quite there.

Lisa Brennauer was also on the attack and this lumpier course will suit her more than a flat effort. However, she’s not been great in TTs this year and that’s enough to put me off her.

USA will turn to Evelyn Stevens as their main hope. She won the tough TT at the Giro Rosa not so long ago and looked good doing work for her team-mates in the road race. A real danger!

I think the course will be too tough and hilly for the likes of Armstrong and Garfoot. Although the latter may surprise me.

One rider I do like for this is Ellen van Dijk. I didn’t manage to catch all of the RR, but from what I saw she looked very, very strong. Constantly attacking, she played a great role for the team. She’ll love the cobbles and the flatter sections, but as was proven yesterday, she seems to be climbing very well too!

Some outsiders (odds-wise) to look out for are Ashleigh Moolman, Elisa Longo-Borgini and Karol-Ann Canuel. They’ll be hoping to challenge the podium and will want to top 5 at least.

Male Contenders

The length of the TT really makes this one for the specialists, those who can manage their efforts well. On paper, this is a two-horse race.

Froome rightly starts as favourite after his impeccable showing at the Tour. He seems to be back to his best in Time Trials. He should be able to gain time on his rivals on the climbs, and will hope to maintain that on the flat. He will be hard to beat, but has he maintained his form?

Tom Dumoulin would have been favourite for this if he had not crashed at the Tour. Supposedly he’s recovered well, but is still on painkillers for the race. You never know in cycling if someone is bluffing pre-race, until they get out on the road, but everything combined together is enough to put me off him.

Aside from those two, the podium is wide open. My favourite for making the podium is Vasil Kiryienka. The Sky rider hasn’t been great this year, in fact he’s been terrible, but long TTs are his bread and butter. With no domestique duties to be concerned about, he’ll be going full gas here. Finally. The cycling community rejoices! When in full flight he is something special to watch.

I’d normally be very much raving about Rohan Dennis‘ chances on a course like this, but he seems to be out of sorts as of late. The same goes for Tony Martin, who hasn’t won a race this year (aside from the German TT national championships). They could turn it around here but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that they will.

The two Spaniards; Izagirre & Castroviejo, both seem to be riding well and can challenge here. They will hope to podium but it will be a tough ask. A top 5 is certainly achievable!

Roglic, Cancellara, Oliveira, Phinney and Bodnar will be fighting for top 10 spots, anything better would be great.

*Of course, writing ahead of time means that I’m unsure of how accurate the forecast is. It looks set to be even conditions all day, but this could change quite quickly. Then, we might see riders getting an advantage depending on their start times.*

Predictions

For the women’s race, I think it will be a Dutch rider that will win. It won’t be the favourite though! Instead, we’ll see Ellen van Dijk romp away to victory. She’s won both of the ITTs she’s entered this season and I fancy that to continue. Van der Breggen and Stevens will round out the podium.

In the men’s race it would be easy to pick Froome but I’m not going to do that. I think the distance will be the key and that will massively benefit a certain rider from Belarus. Kiryienka pulled out early from the road race to focus 100% on this and I say he’ll 100% deliver. The World Champion’s class will shine through! Froome will podium, probably finishing 2nd, with Izagirre claiming the bronze for Spain.

Betting

Backing both of my riders individually (1.125pt EW) and as a double (0.25pt).

Kiryienka best priced at 16/1 with various bookmakers. 3 places at 1/4 odds.

Van Dijk 9/1 with Boylesports. 3 places, 1/4 odds. If you can’t bet there then Sky/Ladbrokes/Betway are all offering 2 places (1/3 odds). If not there, then straight up is good.

The double is 186/1 at Betvictor straight up. I can’t bet there so have placed it at Betfair instead (at 135/1). Boyles offer the double at 130/1 and that can be placed EW.

Hope you enjoyed the double preview?! I thought I’d save everyone’s time as the route is the same, and there isn’t enough to write to stretch it over two separate previews! Who do you think will win both races? I just hope we get equal conditions for all. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

MyTwoSpokesWorth

Where I give my opinions on the compelling world of professional bicycle racing

Tag: UCIWT

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