Valverde won the stage easily, ahead of Froome and Contador. With the stage win and his 21 second gap back to the Brit, the GC battle is well and truly over for the week. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.
The Route
Another rolling day in the saddle. What else can do the riders expect in this region though?!
After a few kilometres of flat right from the gun, the riders will then face the long and gradual Cat3 ascent of the Alt de Bot. This certainly looks a good place for a breakaway to be let go, but considering that everyone knows that it typically won’t be! Instead, it might be the rolling terrain afterwards and around the 4okm at Gandesa where the correct group of riders are finally let go.
More, you guessed it, rolling terrain follows. Before we have three categorised climbs in quick succession. None is tough enough to cause splits in the peloton, but they could do some damage to the break. Especially if there are some riders up the road who don’t want to have a sprint at the end of the day.
We have a descent almost all the way to the line once they have traversed the plateau after of the final climb, although admittedly, some of the descending is more false flat than downhill.
The road does rise up in the final few kilometres but it averages over just 1% for the last 2km so nothing too serious. We do have a roundabout at 500m to go which could be used as a ploy for a late attack from the break.
How will the stage pan out?
I think you’ve guessed it by now…
Contenders
Names in a hat? As long as they are no threat on GC Movistar will be happy to let them go. That pretty much means anyone outside the top 20 so we have a lot of riders to choose from! Once again, I’ll suggest a few names that might give it a go.
Xandro Meurisse.
The Wanty rider seems to be plodding along quite nicely in this race and is climbing as well as I have seen for a while. Traditionally more of a puncheur, he only finished 15 seconds behind Van Garderen on today’s summit finish. If he gets in the break and can cope with any attacks on the final climb, he has a good chance of winning a sprint!
Peter Kennaugh.
I highlighted him on stage 1 and he did the preview justice on a day I was completely wrong, by giving it a little nudge off the front. He lost 5 minutes today, but considering he was one of the last Sky riders in the front group on Stage 3 I doubt that those losses will be due to bad form. Saving himself for tomorrow?
Gianluca Brambilla.
The Italian was suffering from illness not that long ago, but he’s still racing here which makes me think that he’s now over his bug. He made the break on stage 3 but dropped back to the peloton, but I think that was because teams were still unsure if he was a threat on GC. Or, maybe he is still ill! Nonetheless, he is way out of contention now and the final climb and finish suit him perfectly if he’s back to full fitness. That’s a big if, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take!
Lachlan Morton.
Morton has had a quiet time of it so far this race, but he has been industrious at the front of the peloton when needed. Namely, doing work for Sbaragli on stages 1 and 4. The Aussie is a very solid climber, finishing 7th on the Green Mountain earlier this year in Oman. With no GC hopes, Dimension Data will be chasing stages and Morton may well be that man!
Prediction
He looked good on Stage 3 and should survive the climb if he’s in the break. If he’s not and we for some reason get a reduced peloton fighting out the stage win, he could well attack once again in the closing kilometres.
Peter “what’s the women’s Giro” Kennaugh to win!
Betting
Another day I don’t want to get overly involved with but I am most confident in Kennaugh so he gets the majority of the backing!
All B365.
0.7pt WIN Kennaugh @ 25/1
0.3pt WIN Brambilla @ 18/1
0.25pt WIN Morton @ 250/1
0.25pt WIN Meurisse @ 80/1
Thanks for reading as always! Who do you think will win? Tomorrow will be a big day of previews with my final stage preview for this race, but also previews for the men’s and women’s Gent-Wevelgem. I hope you’ll be able to read them all! Anyway,
The opening 50km was chalked off due to bad weather so we had a shortened stage. There were some probing attacks on the final climb but it did end up coming down to a sprint. NacerBouhanni managed to haul himself over the rise and duly won the stage with ease!
Stage one winner Cimolai finished second this time, with Impey rounding out the podium. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.
A relatively easy day out in the saddle apart from the final 20km. Even the Cat-2 climb is simple in comparison to some of the other climbs we get in this region. The only reason it’s probably categorised so highly is due to its length, with an average gradient of 2.8% it is certainly not steep!
Tomorrow is all about the final climb.
If you take into account the build up to the official start of the ascent it is actually 13.3km long at 7%. However, the official profile would lead you to believe that the climb is only 8.4km at 8.8% average.
A very tough end to the day and we could and more than likely will see some large gaps between some of the GC riders. Although we could see a case of riders marking each other out of it, but I fully expect some of the teams to attack it hard from the bottom (Sky, Movistar & Trek) leaving a select group of favourites near the front. From there, not only who’s the strongest on the day, but team tactics will also be important.
Will they be fighting for the win though?
How will the stage pan out?
Normally this would be a GC day 100% of the time but last year we saw a break make it all the way to the line. Could that happen again?
Probably not.
There will be enough interest behind to chase for bonus seconds that any break will be nullified. Or at least you would imagine so!
I’m intrigued to see if having team-mates will be of any benefit to the riders here. The finishing climb is a lot like Terminillo (that we saw in Tirreno recently) so it could be a case of strongest on the day wins. However, if a team has a few good climbers they can always send one up the road and sit back to mark attacks from behind, a la Contador and Mollema in Abu Dhabi. Equally, we could easily just see a big battle between the favourites, which is what I think is most likely to happen.
Contenders
If we do get a massive GC blowout, there are only 4 riders who can win this stage in my opinion.
Alberto Contador.
El Pistolero was incredibly unlucky in Paris Nice, giving it his all but falling short once again. On the final stage he looked very strong but that was on climbs where the average gradient was around 6%, not the 8% we’ll see here. Contador does sometimes struggle on the steeper stuff, but if he’s still going as he did in PN, it will be hard to beat him!
Alejandro Valverde.
Returning from his illness that caused him to miss PN, he returned with a bang to win stage 3 on Wednesday. That day suited him ideally but tomorrow might be a little long for him. Yet, I keep thinking of his ridiculous long rang attack up Penas Blanacas in Ruta del Sol last year, and that something similar might be on the cards here. He’ll be hoping to emulate what Quintana did on Terminillo and take the GC lead, if not, get very close to it before the next few stages.
Speaking of the Terminillo…
Geraint Thomas.
The Welshman was able to match Quintana almost blow for blow up the final climb, but the Colombian was just too good for him in the end. That result will have given Thomas the confidence that he can climb with the best in the world. As I said in my Tirreno GC preview, I think he’ll podium or get very close to in the Giro, so another big result here will set him in good stead. Froome may feature but he still doesn’t seem up to speed.
Adam Yates.
He was a very credible third on the Terminillo stage behind Quintana and Thomas. Even more credible when you think he DNF’d the next day after withdrawing due to illness. On the climb to La Molina he looked comfortable and should go well tomorrow on the steep stuff he seems to love. I wouldn’t discount him!
Prediction
I think we’ll see the four I’ve listed get a gap but there will be the usual unwillingness to work, particularly between Contador and Valverde. This will leave it open for the two Brits to attack and due to Thomas being the closest rider on GC, he’ll be left to do the majority of the work. Yates will then attack him in the final 500m, using his more explosive nature to take the stage victory!
Will it go to plan?
Betting
1pt EW Yates @ 12/1 with B365 (would take 10s)
Thanks for reading as always! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,
E3 Harelbeke has the illustrious history of being named after a road. Don’t let its dull naming history put you off though, as this race is often heralded as a “mini Flanders” and the action normally lives up to that billing!
Last year saw Kwitakowski and Sagan attack with 30km to go and they were not to be seen again! The Pole caught Sagan napping in the sprint, taking it up early and ended up winning with relative ease.
The recent MSR winner is not here to defend his title, but we still have a whole host of talented riders looking to take centre stage.
First though, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the them.
The Route
A day packed with hills and cobbles. My kind of race!
Like Dwars, the day slowly builds to a crescendo, although we do have some difficulties earlier in the stage. The first challenge of the day is the Oude Kruisberg and from there we have an obstacle every 10 kilometres or so on average.
However, the decisive point of the race will probably be between the 45km-35km to go with the triple threat of; the Kapelberg; Paterberg; and Oude Kwaremont.
If there is no made on the first two climbs, there will certainly be an explosion on the Kwaremont.
The 4% average gradient on Strava doesn’t do it justice because as you can see in the image above, it’s mainly flat or false-flat for the first 600m. It then pitches up from 0.8km to 1.5km, averaging 7.9%. Remember, this is all on cobbles as well! If you’re not on a good day here then you’ll be out the back in no time.
Once over the Kwaremont the bunch will have little time for rest as they’ll soon be on the Karnemelkbeekstraat at just over 30km to go. This is where last year’s duo made their move!
From there, we only have one more hill and cobbled section so it will be a frantic chase home and run to the line in Harelbeke.
It’s not an overly difficult run in but the twisting nature of it does give the group up ahead the advantage of often being out of sight.
Contenders
Without the defending champion here, I guess we better start with that average cyclist who finished 2nd last year…
Peter Sagan obviously comes into this race as favourite, like he does for almost every one day race he starts! His team looks fairly poor, but Postlberger looked good in Dwars so maybe he can protect Sagan for a while. However, the World Champion is used to riding races unaided. The one problem with Sagan being Sagan, is that very few riders will want to ride with him in a group that might be chasing the leaders. Therefore he will be leant on to do a lot of the work. Yet, if he’s in a similar mood to his San Remo outing then he may well just attack himself and his opposition will have to be in exceptional form to follow!
Quick Step will be hoping to use strength in numbers to beat the Slovak and everyone else. They bring their crack squad of classics riders with them, although Lampaert will sit this one out. In Boonen, Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra and even Trentin they have potential winner candidates. With this type of parcours though, I would have to favour Stybar and Terpstra as their best options. They both looked very strong in Dwars to attack from the 3rd to the 2nd group on the road, halting that groups progress and helping their team-mates ahead build up a lead. Stybar looked good, but I think the Dutch rider looked even better, bridging across to his team-mate relatively comfortable even though Stybar was going full gas.
Greg Van Avermaet will be hoping to repeat his Omloop victory earlier in the season tomorrow. After looking very strong in Strade, he was a bit disappointing in Tirreno and MSR. His BMC team looks strong, but I’m still not convinced by how many of them can be there at the end and offer much support. Nonetheless, as one of the best classics riders in the peloton, he certainly can’t be discounted!
Sky bring a solid squad but it will no doubt be up to the diamond duo of Rowe and Stannard for them. Both riders are exceptional on their day but I’m sure they would have hoped for some worse weather! They each won a stage in the Herald Sun Tour but the Welshman performed much better in the opening semi-classics. Sky have not finished off the podium in the past three editions, can they make it 4-in-a-row tomorrow?
After a disappointing Dwars, Trek bring Degenkolb and Stuyven into the team. It’s good to see the German back to near his best and he certainly can contend here. My one concern is that he struggled to follow Sagan in MSR on the Poggio, maybe Paris Roubaix is more suited to him than a Flanders style course. Stuyven has looked very impressive this season so far and is certainly living up to the hype surrounding him. Having numbers near the pointy end of the race will be important for any team, but Trek should have at least two. Felline might even turn himself into a third option.
Lotto Soudal are another team that had a disappointing Dwars. They only had Wallays up the road but he wasn’t able to follow the big move when it counted. Benoot and Gallopin were left frustrated behind, with the young Belgian sprinting to 7th place. I think he’ll go a lot better tomorrow! Could he win his first professional race?
In the three Belgian races he’s competed in so far this season, Naesen has finished in the top 10 of them all. He was terribly unlucky in Dwars with a mechanical but showed just how strong he is right now, managing to get back to the second group and sprint for 6th. With Vandenbergh by his side, they can certainly roll over a few hills and cobbles!
There are obviously lots of other riders who could have a chance, such as Vanmarcke, Durbridge and Lutsenko but I think I’ll stop the list there as I could go on for a while.
Prediction
A very tough race where numbers will once again be important. Sagan will more than likely be forced to do a lot of the work chasing others and to be honest, I don’t think he cares for winning this race. So he might just call some riders’ bluff and sit on. Conversely, he could easily just romp away from everyone!
Nonetheless, I don’t think he wins.
Instead, it will be NikiTerpstra who this time will solo away from the opposition.
I was impressed with the way he was riding in Tirreno, and have had him shortlisted for this race (and Flanders next weekend) since then. His tandem attack with Stybar has convinced me that his form is in the right place, and I think he can make it two from two for Quick Step, and everyone will forget about their poor opening weekend in February!
Betting
Other than Terpstra there are two riders I want on my side and after Wednesday, I’m being a bit gung-ho with the stakes. The odds are shorter than Lampaert after all!
2pts WIN Terpstra @ 16/1 with Bet365 (would take 12s)
1pt WIN Naesen @ 28/1 with B365 (would take 22s)
1pt WIN Benoot @ 25/1 with B365 (would take 20s)
Prices might be better else where but I can’t be bothered looking!
Also,
1pt WINTerpstra for Flanders @ 25/1 with various bookmakers
Thanks as always for reading and as usual any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win E3 and how? Anyway,
If I’m being honest, I didn’t catch much of today’s stage. Only the last 600m in fact, I was too busy watching Dwars! From what I saw, it seemed a fairly benign day and we got a sprint to the finish line between the two pre-stage favourites. It was Valverde who came out on top over Martin, exacting some revenge for Movistar who felt hard done by with the reversal of the commissaire’s decision this morning!
Yates came home in third to pick up some bonus seconds, with the blog pick of Bardet coming 4th. VanGarderen holds a 41 second lead on the GC over team-mate Sanchez, but there are a whole host of riders queuing up behind the BMC duo if they were to falter.
Will we see any GC changes tomorrow? Let’s have a look at the route.
The Route
A weird route that starts with almost 100km of very shallow descending!
There is a sprint point on top of a small hill after only 6.2km so I expect the GC teams to keep the bunch together for that. It looks ideal for the likes of Valverde to nab a few bonus seconds.
We then have the long, gradual descent before the next main obstacle of the day; the cat 3 Alt del Pubill. Only 2.9km long and averaging 6%, it’s not overly difficult and I imagine the peloton will roll over it.
The course then rolls for the next 70km before we reach the main challenge of the day; the Cat 2 Turó del Puig. At 5.3km and only averaging 5.4% the GC riders won’t be troubled here, but due to its proximity to the finish line it should be tackled at a fair pace. This should see the end of the sprinters chances for the day.
Apologies for the poor quality image below, the road book doesn’t offer much to play with!
They’ll then descend all the way until 2km to go where we have a fairly technical finale. Two 90-degree turns and a roundabout feature in the last kilometre. It’s a typical Spanish end to the day and will no doubt be suitably manic!
That is of course if we end up with some type of sprint.
How will the stage pan out?
With the peloton very much spread out on GC already there is a good chance we could get a breakaway stay away tomorrow.
The position of the last climb will make it too hard for Bouhanni and Greipel to make it over with the peloton but it’s not hard enough to cause some GC gaps. We could quite well see the type of sprint I thought we might get on Stage 1, where there’s a peloton of around 50 guys who come to the finish together.
Valverde might fancy his chances of winning the sprint and taking some more bonus seconds along with it. However, that will mean another day of work for Movistar when they don’t have to and I’m sure they’d rather save their efforts for the brutal finish on Stage 5.
So I’ll go for a break, and give it a 70/30 chance that it makes it.
Breakaway Contenders
There are many, many riders who will be given plenty of freedom tomorrow so it’s just a case of me once again trying to give some (hopefully) well-reasoned logic behind my picks and of course a bit of luck for them to make it.
It’s not helped when there’s a bout of illness going around the peloton just now and we’re none the wiser as to who is actually fighting fit. Oh well, here goes nothing!
Nathan Haas.
The Aussie is here building form for his next goals in the season (Amstel) and what better way to do that then out in the break?! He admitted that he was suffering on the first day but sounded hopefully that it blew the cobwebs away. Tomorrow’s stage looks ideally suited to his characteristics, with the climbs not being too difficult. Packing a fast sprint, you wouldn’t want to bring him to the line.
Petr Vakoc.
Like Haas, the Czech rider is here building form for his classics campaign. An 8th place finish on stage 1 where the run in to the line didn’t really suit him highlights to me that he’s going fairly well at the moment. A proper brute of a rider, the Cat-2 at the end of tomorrow’s stage will be on his limit but if the right riders are up the road, he certainly has a chance.
Jordi Simon.
One of only 4 Funvic riders left in the race, the Catalan native will have pressure from his team to perform here. Not only that, but I’m sure he will want to perform too as tomorrow’s stage passes his hometown. An explosive climber, he isn’t the most well-known rider in the peloton and doesn’t have too many results to his name. A third place at nationals last year was his best finish, but hey, stranger things have happened!
Damien Howson.
The Orica man took a much deserved GC win in the Herald Sun Tour earlier in the season. A great reward for being a super domestique for Chaves last year! On his return to European racing he finished a respectable 19th in Industrio, helping Yates to victory. Far enough down not to be a GC threat, he would be one of the favourites if he made the break due to his climbing and TT prowess.
Prediction
Break wins and I’ll go for Quick Step to continue that feel good factor within their team and PetrVakoc to take the win!
He’ll use his explosive kick to attack away from his breakaway companions on the steady gradients of the final climb and not be seen again until they cross the finish line!
Betting
Crapshoot of a stage and not one I want to get massively involved with; 0.25pt WIN on all the selections.
Vakoc @ 28/1 with B365
Haas @ 33/1 with B365
Simon @ 200/1 with B365
Howson @ Not quoted, so I’ll go with…
Clement @ 300/1 with Bet365 (similar build to Howson, decent climber but strong TTer).
Thanks again for reading! How do you think tomorrow will play out? Will we see a break make it, or will it come down to a reduced bunch kick, or even a late attack? Anyway,
*Apologies – this preview will be short and sweet as I myself am short of time having to do two write-ups this evening. Normal service shall resume tomorrow!*
Today’s Recap
A charging Movistar won the stage by 2 seconds ahead of BMC, with TeamSky finishing in third.
However, the BMC riders were not happy with some of the Movistar riders pushing their team-mates and started a trial by social media. For some strange reason, only a few of the Movistar riders were punished by the commissaries, not the whole team. Either way, it’s a farcical end of the day to a fairly dull and uninspiring stage. Moving swiftly on to tomorrow!
The Route
A day back loaded with climbing. Credit for the route profile once again goes to @LasterketaBurua.
It’s the exact same finish to the third stage from last year.
The two cat-1 ascents before the finishing climb will certainly tire the legs but I can’t see them being overly demanded for the peloton. Unless of course a team were to come to the front and set a really tough tempo.
As you can see in the above video from last year, time gaps will be minimal at the end of the stage if we don’t get a team take it up from far out.
The finish isn’t that difficult and suits the punchy climbers such as DanMartin and Valverde.
How will the day pan out?
We could well see a break make it all the way. There are already sufficient gaps on GC to some good enough climbers far down on the standings for them to get away and not be a threat.
Movistar are traditionally hapless at chasing down breakaways when you think they would be nailed on to, so I wouldn’t trust them 100% to close it down for stage favourite Valverde. They’ll be hoping the likes of Sky, Trek and BMC help, but after today’s farce, I’m fairly certain the American team won’t be lending a hand!
Possible breakees include Weening, DeGendt (who won the Queen Stage from a break here last year), Navarro and Geniez.
In the Peloton
If we do get the more likely option of a GC battle on the mountain then look towards those further down in the order to be given a bit of leeway when they attack.
There are plenty of high quality riders that are 2 mins down that won’t be given a second look if they make a move.
Last year’s winner Dan Martin is one of those. The Irishman seems to be in very good form just now, picking up a 3rd on GC in Paris Nice. This finish climb is tailor-made for him and I would be surprised to not see him on the podium at the end of the day.
Romain Bardet will be looking to make amends after his disqualification in Paris Nice. The Frenchman is quite a punchy climber with a decent uphill sprint so could challenge here. He certainly has no fear when attacking! PierreLatour gives AG2R another option, he looked good in the Queen Stage at PN.
Ilnur Zakarin will want to repeat his dogged sprint that saw him beat Thomas in PN last year. The finish on that day reminds me of this one. The Russian is certainly a sight to behold when gunning for the line.
Rafal Majka could give it a nudge but he had a fairly poor Tirreno so his form might not be there yet.
I’m intrigued to see how JakobFuglsang goes. The Dane has had a quiet season so far but has been there or thereabouts, can he go better here?
Any of the Cannondale climbers could be there but they’ve had an awful start to the year and I would even avoid them with a ten-foot barge pole.
Prediction
I wouldn’t trust Movistar to chase the break, but I do think Sky and Trek will eventually lend a hand and we should see a GC winner. I’ll go for someone further down the order to slip away, RomainBardet to win.
Betting
Could and maybe should be a no bet day, but that’d be boring. Although after my past few weeks, back with caution. 😉😂
Bardet 1ptWIN @22/1 with Betfair/PP
plus a handful of breakers (0.125pt WIN each all Betfair)
Weening @ 250/1
DeGendt @ 500/1
Geniez @ 80/1
Navarro @ 150/1
Thanks for reading and apologies for the shorter preview. How do you think tomorrow will play out? Anyway,
The 72nd edition of this race returns tomorrow and marks the start of the run up to the Tour of Flanders a week on Sunday. Dwars Door often provides exciting racing and the route is finely balanced between a small bunch sprint or a group of strong men making it to the line. Plus it’s midweek Belgian cobbled racing! Who doesn’t like midweek Belgian cobbled racing?!
Last year saw a prematurely celebrating Coquard beaten to the line by Debuscherre, with Theuns rounding out the podium.
That was one of the larger bunch sprints for a while but still only 34 riders crossed the line in that front group. It gives you an idea of how tough and attritional this race can be!
Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders in 2017.
The Route
Much the same as the route we’ve had the past few years, apart from an 800m cobbled section has been added around 7km from the finish line.
An easy start to the day, the second half of the route is pretty challenging. There is either a hill or some cobbles to traverse roughly every 10 kilometres from 90km to go until the finish. This makes it a battle of attrition at times, and is why we often don’t see a bunch sprint into Waregem.
Several of the famous cobbled climbs are raced over here, such as; the Taiienberg; the Oude Kwaremont; and the Paterberg. It is these famous stretches of road that can tear the peloton in to bits and help a group of strong riders escape.
Once through the Varent cobbled section at roughly 23km to go, the chase could well be on from the remnants of the peloton but only if there are enough teams interested in bringing a break back and if they cooperate together.
The run in to the line is fairly simple with only a few roundabouts to negotiate.
One factor that often can play a massive part on this race is the…
Weather
The riders I’m sure, well apart from the Belgians, will be happy to know it looks as if it won’t rain during the day. Even if it does, it should only be a sprinkling! Much to the viewers disappointment.
However, it does look as if we will get reasonably strong winds. Now that’s more promising and what I like to hear!
25km/h crosswinds aren’t crazily strong, but they are enough to cause splits and echelons in the peloton if the pressure is on. Here’s hoping!
How will the race pan out?
I think we’ll see a more attacking race than we got last year and the day won’t come down to a 40 rider sprint.
The reason I say this is similar to my reasoning for an attacking MSR; so many of the puncheurs and cobbled riders seem to be in form at the moment and going very strongly. Most teams arrive with sprint and attacking options, so I think it’s very unlikely that we’ll just see them settle for a nice-group ride and a sprint to the line.
However, this all depends on the composition of the group that makes it up the road and the strong teams will need to be there. I imagine that the attack will need to contain riders from at least the following teams; Lotto Soudal, Quick Step and Trek. You can probably add Orica, FDJ and BMC to that list too!
So for the contenders I won’t be including sprinters.
Contenders
Defending champions Lotto Soudal have a strong team with them but I imagine Benoot and Roelandts will be their co-leaders. The former was unlucky with a crash earlier in the season but he is exceptionally talented and I’m sure will be looking to bounce back before the Ronde and Paris Roubaix. With a solid sprint after a tough day he has a chance of taking his first pro win, but he will need some luck. Like his younger counterpart, Roelandts’ packs a good kick and he’ll be counting on experience to pull through for him!
Quick Step have a ridiculously strong squad with them and the race itself probably hinges on their attitude. Looking down the start list I could quite feasibly argue for most of their squad making any split in the race. From there, it’s just a case of how they play it. In the past they’ve been quite defensive (the 3 on 1 against Stannard springs to mind) but they should in my opinion approach this aggressively. Or at least I would, which probably means they won’t! Terpstra is the obvious choice to send up the road, but Gilbert and Lampaert offer good options as well. I think Stybar will be saving himself for later in the week.
Theuns will be Trek’s main card to play here, but he’ll be ably supported by Felline. Both of the riders are similar in style, but the Belgian is better on the cobbles with Felline being the better climber. Theuns has finished 2nd and 3rd here the past two years and will be hoping to go one spot higher this time round. I sure would love that as he’s in my season long fantasy team! A very capable rider, he should make the splits on the cobbled climbs and from there it’s a case of making the right moves and getting a bit lucky.
Orica have a few riders who could challenge here if their on a good day, and in particular Durbridge and Keukeleire. I always think Durbridge is older than he is, I’m amazed he’s only 25, he’s been around for what seems an eternity! Once just a TT specialist, he has really transformed in to a great all round rider, his 6th place in Strade is testament to that. Certainly not a guy that should be given much leeway off the front of the bunch. As for Keukeleire, it was good to see him back challenging at the pointy end of a race in the Vuelta last year, after a few seasons of underperforming. With a fast sprint after a tough day, he could certainly take victory if a small group comes to the line!
A few other riders to keep an eye out on who could well go on the attack and be up there at the finish are Naesen (AG2R), Lutsenko (Astana), Backaert (Wanty), Ligthart (Roompot) and Petit (Direct Energie).
Prediction
As I’ve stated above, I think with the wind conditions we’ll get this edition, the race will be harder than last year and we won’t see a reduced bunch sprint of around 40 riders. Instead, there will be a couple of selections throughout the day and having numbers near the end of the race will be important. I can guarantee Quick Step will have numbers and if Gaviria is not in the group they won’t be waiting around for a sprint. Conversely, they may also even attack if he is in the group as they will be leant on by the other teams!
So I’m going to go for a Quick Step rider who can time trial and sprint from a very reduced group to cover both options of a late attack or sprint. Yep, that’s right, local hero YvesLampaert to win!
The rider from Izegem is one that I rate highly and mentioned during the earlier cobbled semi-classics. Heralded as the next big Belgian cobbled talent, he has failed to live up to the mark so far, but that might just well change tomorrow!
Betting
Difficult race to predict and one I don’t want to overly get involved with so a few bets for interest;
1pt WIN Lampaert @ 66/1 with various (would take 50s)
0.5pt EW Keukeleire @ 66/1 with various (would take 50s)
Thanks for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we get a big bunch sprint, reduced sprint or a sol attack?! Anyway,
Well that was bitterly disappointing. No fireworks, no real attacks on the climbs and a proper bunch sprint in the end. Nonetheless, that shouldn’t take away from Cimolai’s great win, as he pipped Bouhanni to the line.
It was Sbaragli who rounded out the podium for Dimension Data.
I know I’m often wrong with my preview’s but it has been a while since I’ve been that far off. Let’s move swiftly on to tomorrow and it’s stupidly long TTT!
The Route
Long, rolling Team Time Trial that will have a massive impact on the rest of the race.
Profile once again provided by @LasterketaBurua. Although in TT and TTT tradition, I feel that I need to make my own one on Strava! So here it is, you can view it here too, for those that like something more interactive.
Although I somehow seemed to have gained an extra kilometre out on course compared to the official distance. I think I may have made the start/finish line ever so slightly further up the road, oh well!
The course is populated with lots of short climbs and fast descents, with rolling terrain in between. The climbs aren’t overly tough, with most of them being 1-2km and averaging 2-3%, but on a TT bike that will take its toll.
The hardest ascents they’ll face are; the Carretera Del Veïnat De Deri Climb which averages 6% for 1.4kms; the Repetxo Orfes (1.4km at 3.7%); and the Esponellà-Martís (1.9km at 4.1%).
I’m very intrigued to see how the riders deal with the Carretera, considering it has ramps of over 15% and comes within the first 10kms of the stage. You don’t want the climbers blowing the rouleurs’ gasket already!
The finish line does kick up at the end but at only around 2% for a couple of hundred metres.
Contenders
Pffft, it’s hard to tell.
We hardly ever get TTTs of this length throughout the season, I mean, the World Championships in the past two years have been shorter!
BMC will be hoping to pick up from where they left off in Tirreno.
They were exceptional in that race but they don’t have their strongest team here, substituting out a few of the big guys for some climbers. On this terrain that may help but I think it will hinder them more than it will benefit them. Nonetheless, they still can’t be discounted. Watching them doing a TTT is like poetry in motion!
Sky will be lamenting me putting the curse on them for the Tirreno TTT and their wheels literally falling off that effort. They have an incredibly strong squad with them for the mountains and some very strong TT engines. The hilly parcour certainly helps the likes of Landa and Nieve who aren’t the best time trial riders. They should podium, if not win, and put their crack squad of climbers in a great position before the mountain stages.
Movistar always perform well in TTTs in Spain. They were beaten by less than a second by Sky in the Vuelta TTT last year. With Castroviejo in their team they have massive talent but the rest of the squad looks a bit thin in comparison to the one that they took to Tirreno. Will home advantage overcome that? They also have the benefit of being the last GC team down the start ramp.
The words “Team Time Trial” would normally bring smiles to the bosses at Quickstep, but they have a very weak team compared to their top riders. I fear Dan Martin might lose a fair bit of time.
The same can be said for Trek, who on paper have some good time trialists but they aren’t notoriously a good TTT outfit. Contador and Mollema will be playing catch-up the rest of this week, which should make for exciting racing at least!
One team aside from the Big 3 favourites that I do like for this TTT are OricaScott. The Aussie team used to be the par excellence for this discipline but they lost their way. However, they recently seemed to have managed to their fortunes around and have a very strong all-round squad with them here. I’m expecting to be pleasantly surprised by them!
Prediction
It will be tough to beat one of the Big 3 and I would actually favour TeamSky out of the trio. I do think that Orica can manage a podium spot if not better!
Betting
No value in the top of the order. Orica do offer a good option.
1pt EW Orica @25/1 with Bet365 (They’re offering 5th odds for 3 places – would take down to 20s)
Plus this H2H treble 3pts on @ 2.83/1 (would take down to 2.2/1)
Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win this stupidly long TTT stage? Anyway,
The third round of the Women’s World Tour returns this weekend with the Trofeo Alfredo Binda. It’s the oldest race in the WWT and normally provides some very exciting racing. Last year’s edition saw LizzieDeignan (then Armitstead) attacking on the final descent along with JolandaNeff, before out-sprinting the Swiss rider in the uphill drag to the line.
Neff was actually beaten to the line for second place by Armitstead’s team-mate, MeganGuarnier, who won the sprint out of the chasing group behind.
I expect we’ll see some more attacking and exciting racing this year so let’s take a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A tough parcours, with the road either going up or down for most of the day. There is no real respite!
Credit to @LasterketaBurua for the profile – much better than the official one!
The first half of the day will act as a leg softener but this race is all about the final circuit around Cittiglio itself.
The official profile of the circuit is a bit rubbish if I’m honest, so I’ve made a Strava profile of the circuit that you can view here.
Even it has its limitations though and the dramatic wall before the Orino climb should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Isolating the climbs themselves, the Casalzuigno climb is 1.9km long, averaging 4.1% in gradient. However, that does include a reasonably long false-flat drag at the start.
As you can see, it kicks up at around 6.5% for the final 900m. Gaps can certainly be made here with some early attacks!
We then have a quick descent followed by a few kilometres of flat before the main test of the closing circuit, the Orino Climb.
At 2.7km long and averaging 4.8%, like the Casalzuigno climb, that does not tell the whole story. There are a few hundred metre stretches, especially around the hairpin turns, that average over 9%! No doubt the pure climbers will be trying something here to distance the all-rounders.
There’s then a fast 4km descent before the final run to the finish line, with the closing 500m averaging 3.6%. Will we get a tough sprint like last year?
Contenders
Back to back champion Deignan returns this year and will be hoping for a hat-trick of wins tomorrow. She’s only had one race day this year so far, a very respectable 3rd in Strade, so I’m intrigued to see if she’ll be up to full race speed as of yet! I remember reading an interview (can’t remember where – apologies!) in which she wanted a more gradual start to the season compared to 2016 where she burned herself out by the end of the Spring Classics. A good climber with a strong sprint after a tough day, if she is on form already then she will be tough to beat!
However, as per usual, Boels send an incredibly strong team to not only support her but with plenty of other options for the race victory. Their best alternative to Deignan looks like AnnavanderBreggen! After missing Strade through illness the Dutchwoman returned to racing last weekend, doing a lot of the hard work chasing for her team-mates. The parcours here suits her better than those races and being one of the best riders in the world, on one of the best teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her cross the line first!
The main danger for Boels will more than likely be the current leader of the Women’s World Tour: ElisaLongoBorghini. The Italian is local to this area and has won here before, back in 2013. Already in scintillating form this year with a win in Strade and a 4th place in Ronde van Drenthe, you wouldn’t put it past her winning again tomorrow. She’ll be brimming with confidence and I’d be willing to put my metaphorically owned house that she will finish in the top 5, barring any misfortune caused by a crash or mechanical! Borghini will be ably supported by new team-mate ClaudiaLichtenberg who could well feature herself at the pointy end of the race. More of a climber though, she would need to come to the finish solo.
Team Sunweb have arguably been the best performing squad of the season so far and the once again arrive at a race with a solid team. I imagine EllenVanDijk will be their leader as she has looked excellent this year so far. Unfortunate in Van Drenthe that Boels had their whole team pretty much to chase her down, she’ll be hoping to get a bit more leeway this race and solo to the line. Something that is certainly not a distant possibility! LeahKirchmann has had a quiet start to the year in comparison to her breakthrough 2016 season. However, as a good all-rounder, she can’t be discounted if the proper climbers don’t make inroads on the hills. Packing a fast kick, the Canadian will fancy her chances in a 15 rider bunch gallop.
Marianne Vos is the most successful rider in this race’s history, with three wins in total. She arrives here with a very strong team and in fact, she probably won’t be the teams outright leader. I imagine she’ll almost play a sandbagging type role, covering attacks and waiting for the sprint. Instead, I think it will be KatarzynaNiewiadoma who has the best chance for the WM3 team! The Pole was unlucky in Strade but was just beaten by the better rider on the day, although she still managed to finish a great second place. I’m sure she’ll want to exact some revenge over Longo Borghini in her home race!
Canyon SRAM arrive with AlenaAmialiusik as their leader. The Belarusian has finished 3rd/5th/5th in the past 3 editions so she certainly seems to go well at this race! She doesn’t have a great sprint so will need to arrive at the finish alone if she wants to win. One of her team-mates does have a good sprint after a tough day – ElenaCecchini. The Italian champion has finished in or around the top 10 in her last three appearances at this race but she has never made the front group. Although she’s climbing better than ever just now, I think like Kirchmann, she might want a group of 15 to arrive together.
You can never discount Orica pairing Garfoot and Van Vleuten, or FDJ’s Aussie SharaGillow.
One curveball of a rider I would like to highlight is Cervelo Bigla’s young Danish talent; CecilieUttrupLudwig.
She started the season off OK, but a breakthrough 9th place in Strade confirmed her talents. I mean, she was 9th at the European Champs and 10th at the Boels Rental Hills Classics last year so I guess it you could say it was coming! Following up from her great ride in Strade, she went on to take the overall title at the Setmana Ciclista Valenciana. She admits her main strength is climbing so it will be hard to win in a sprint but I will certainly be keeping an eye on her development this year.
Prediction
A tough race to call and having numbers in the final lap will be of a big advantage. I’ll go for a rider who is going to take some big wins this year, and having the most decorated female cyclist of her generation sandbagging behind certainly will help her here. KatarzynaNiewiadoma to win! She is fast enough to win a small sprint but also strong enough to ride away on the climbs.
Coverage
We are expected to get a live stream of the final 68km from 14:50 CET, that you can view here.
However, do be warned if last year’s stream is anything to go by then we might just get a studio show followed by a zoom-lens camera shot of the final straight. I hope that they’ve stepped their game up though!
Thanks for reading as always and as usual, any feedback/likes/shares is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? And will we see a solo winner or a small group sprint? I’ll have a lot of men’s previews on the site over the next few days but the next women’s preview will be Gent Wevelgem next Saturday. Anyway,
The first monument of the year and the longest race in the calendar returns this weekend; Milan -> Sanremo!
Like most MSR’s, last year’s edition built slowly to a climax, with the closing kilometre being exceptionally exciting.
We had Gaviria crashing, almost taking out Sagan and Cancellara if it was not for some incredible bike handling, but what else would you expect from that pair! That left the door open for some other riders and Roelandts opened up the sprint early which caught everyone off guard. Swift followed (finishing 2nd in the end), Bouhanni looked strong but had a mechanical and came home 4th. Instead, it was a rather dubious win for ArnaudDémare in the end after there were accusations he got a tow from the team car back to the peloton after a crash. Nonetheless, it was an impressive sprint from the Frenchman and with the way he is riding this season so far, he could well make it back to back wins!
Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A carbon copy of what we’ve had the past few years pretty much.
A real race of attrition, the peloton doesn’t get close to this distance in any other race. The extra 50km compared to some other monuments and almost 100km on normal stage-race stages really adds another element. The climbs of the Cipressa and the Poggio if taken alone aren’t difficult at all.
Yet, with them being the only place for the climbers and puncheurs to make a move they are always attacked at a ferocious pace. Plus, with 260km already in the legs, riders will be nervous as to how their body reacts.
We might see some long-range attacks on the Cipressa before the puncheurs try to break the hearts of the sprinters on the Poggio. It’s often a battle between attacking classics riders and the sprinter’s team-mates for control of the race. Once over the crest of the Poggio, it’s time for a daredevil descent into Sanremo itself.
Once off the descent we have roughly 2km of flat to the finish. There will no doubt be more attacks here as the riders regroup. Will the sprinters have enough team-mates left to chase and control the race? Or will we even see non-sprinters chase down other non-sprinters? Inadvertently helping the sprinters who are with them!
The famous finish along the via Roma awaits.
How will the race pan out?
Going off of recent trends, the race certainly seems to live up to its nickname of “The Sprinter’s Monument”.
In the last 5 years, the number of riders in the leading group at the finish has swelled; 2012 (3); 2013 (7); 2014 (25); 2015 (26); 2016 (31). Why is that?
Well, the removal of the “Le Manie” climb in 2014 swung the race back towards bunch gallops. Although it came around 100km from the finish, it sapped away at the sprinters legs a lot earlier and ensured that they tackled the climbs at the end of the race with a bit more fatigue. You could also argue that sprinters in general seem to have got better at climbing over the past few years, but I’m not sure the likes of Kittel will agree!
Oddly enough though, I do still think we’ll see one of the more attacking MSRs for a while. I’m not saying it won’t come down to a sprint in the end, but with so many puncheurs in great form coming into the race, I’m sure they won’t want to wait until the sprint to end up 6th-10th place. There will be a slight headwind when the riders turn onto the Poggio, but the majority of the climb will be a tailwind. Will this inspire the attackers?
If a select group can make it over the top of the Poggio and work well together then they can make it to the finish. However, the issue is that they have to co-operate, if not, then they have no chance.
I actually think someone like Sagan might attack on the Poggio.
The World Champion is clearly in scintillating form but I’m sure even he will be concerned with the quality of sprinters that can make it over the final climb if the pace isn’t too high. He is the one of the fastest men in the World after a tough day and I’m sure he’ll do everything in his powers to ensure that he has the best chance at winning the race. Being beaten by Gaviria in Tirreno this week gone by won’t have done his confidence much use, but I guess Sagan being Sagan, he doesn’t need any more confidence!
Another reason I think Sagan might not wait around for a sprint is that Bora also have the handy second card to play of SamBennett. The Irishman took a breakthrough and much deserved win in Paris-Nice, beating some of the fastest pure sprinters in the World. That impressed me, but what impressed me more was his intermediate sprint win the next day. “Eh?!” I can imagine you say, thinking I’ve clearly lost the plot. Well, that intermediate sprint came after the stage started with a Cat-1 climb and the peloton was only 60-riders strong over the top, with the likes of Demare being dropped. Not Bennett though, he was up there beating Matthews and Gilbert. He certainly seems to have found his climbing legs and the Poggio shouldn’t be a challenge for him! Which leads me on to the other sprinters here…
Sprinters
We have plenty of them here, with only Kittel, Greipel and Groenewegen being the notable absentees.
I’m not going to bore you with a little bit on each sprint option (plenty of others will cover them more succinctly and concisely), as I’m already close to the 1000 word mark and I have a few other scenarios/riders I want to cover. So like I’ve been doing quite a bit recently, I’m going to focus on one rider and he’s a selection that might surprise you!
Mark Cavendish.
The 2009 winner has had a relatively uninspiring but solid start to his 2017 season, picking up only one victory so far in Abu Dhabi. He wasn’t competitive at this race last year due to his Olympics build up, but will be hoping for better this year. Nonetheless, he looks like a tough rider to argue for, yet I’ll give it my best shot.
It’s his slow burning season that’s actually making me believe in his chances here. Before the Tour last year I had written him off as he didn’t seem to be having a great year and seemed past it. He went on to win 4 stages. Before the World Champs I ruled him out as he said he was ill in the week leading up to the event and had gone a bit off the boil post TDF, with only a 6th at Paris-Tours being a notable result. He went on to finish second. Really though, he should have won! He just chose the wrong wheel and got a bit boxed in. There is a recurring theme here; just when he seems to be out of it, he bags a result. The Manxman certainly knows how to peak for key targets. His recent performance in Tirreno fits the above agenda quite nicely and reminds me of a certain Irishman.
The above screenshot is from an interview in Rouleur magazine with Sean Kelly (view it here). Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Write off Cavendish at your peril this weekend!
Outsiders
There are plenty of puncheurs and classics riders I could highlight but I’m returning to Dimension Data for my second rider.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has long been a favourite of mine. The guy oozed class and talent on a bike and it’s a shame for him he’s around in the same era as the likes of Sagan and GVA as I feel he gets overlooked at times.
The Norwegian was on the attack here in the final kilometres last year and only a few managed to follow him. I expect something similar this year, even if Cavendish makes it over the top of the Poggio in the main group. He’s without a win this season but he has looked strong in Strade, bridging across to the front group on his own. Likewise, his two top 10 TT results indicate to me that he’s peaking a lot more slowly this year compared to his blistering start last season. He can win solo by attacking, or could take out a sprint win from a small group and I don’t think there would be many cycling fans out there who would begrudge a Boasson Hagen win!
My final rider is a proper outsider and one that I have mentioned a lot over the past week in Paris Nice; AlexeyLutsenko.
The Astana man has had a strong but fruitless start to the season. He was never outside the top 30 in Oman and finished a very respectable 11th in the tough TT during Paris Nice. The Kazakh outfit are without a top quality sprinter in their squad, but Lutsenko can certainly fill the void. Like EBH, he is capable of attacking late on in the race or challenging for the win in a very reduced sprint. He did win the U23 World’s in a very similar fashion! A talented rider who I think is going to have a very good season, a win here would certainly shock a few but not me. He will still need some luck to go his way, but who doesn’t here!
Prediction
A sprint is the most likely option but I think we’ll see a more attacking race this year and a move within the final 2km could well stick. He tried it last year and was unlucky to be marked out of it, but I think this year he might just make it with everyone else marking Sagan. BoassonHagen to take a memorable victory!
Betting
Cavendish 1pt EW @18/1 with Bet365 (Would take down to 14s available elsewhere)
Boasson Hagen 0.75pts EW @80/1 with Bet365 (Would take down to 50s)
Lutsenko 0.25pts EW @300/1 with PP/Bet365 (Would take down to 200s).
Thanks very much for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated as always. Who do you think is going to win La Classicissima? Will we see a sprint or a late attack stick? Anyway,
We got a sprint in the end and it was Gaviria who took the win, edging out Sagan.
A prelude for next weekend?
Cavendish was no where to be seen. He annoyingly only seems to do well when I’ve not picked him! Oh well, on to tomorrow’s final stage. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.
The Route
A fairly simple, pan-flat, 10km individual time trial.
Nothing challenging parcours wise for the riders, unless of course you’re a lightweight climber!
The course isn’t technical either, just a simple out and back pretty much, with only a few 90-degree turns thrown in.
It’s certainly one for the specialists and strong men of the peloton.
Weather
It should be a fairly sunny day with little chance of rain.
As you can see in the image above, it looks as if it is going to be a reasonably windy day on the Adriatic coast, with the wind speed picking up mostly around midday.
This will unfortunately hamper the early starters, because on an out-and-back course, the increased tailwind speed does not negate the increased head-wind speed. It’s the opposite in fact!
So if we do get the forecasted wind tomorrow, that should favour the late starters.
Contenders
We have two world-class time trial riders here at Tirreno.
Tom Dumoulin has started his season in imperious form and a good performance tomorrow could see him finish in the top 3 on GC of another stage race. A great TTer, I’m sure he would have preferred the course to be slightly longer and have a little climb in it somewhere. Nonetheless, as he proved at the Giro last year, he’s still no slouch over a short, flat route!
His biggest rival will be RohanDennis. I’ve been very impressed with the Aussie so far this race and he’s already sitting in a podium position, but I’m sure he’ll be aiming further up than the third he currently occupies. One of the best short TT riders in the World and to be honest, I would strongly argue that he is the best! He was flying as part of BMC’s TTT effort and I expect much of the same from him tomorrow.
Aside from those two, there are a plethora of riders who could duke it out for stage honours or a podium placing on the day at least.
Primoz Roglic almost beat Dumoulin in that Giro TT, missing out by less than a second, in what was a breakthrough performance for him. He seemed to struggle a bit in the TT at the Volta ao Algarve recently, so a transformation in to more of a GC rider may have hindered him in that respect. Nonetheless, he could still pull something out the bag!
Geraint Thomas could put in a shift here. The Sky rider has been in sensational form this Tirreno so far and I’m sure he’ll be ruing the awful TTT, otherwise he could well be close enough to Quintana to take the title. A bit inconsistent in the discipline recently, the shorter distance will suit the former track rider.
Jonathan Castroviejo won the TT in Algarve recently over a similar parcours, apart from that stage being ever so slightly longer. The Spaniard is a very good on flat TTs considering his slight nature and he is certainly a danger here if he’s still going well!
Ryan Mullen was going exceptionally well in Algarve and if it hadn’t been for an untimely mechanical, he may have been challenging for the win. He’s been rolling around here for the past few stages, poor form or one eye on tomorrow?
Matthias Brandle has been doing a fair bit of work on the front of the bunch for his team-mates this week, but like Mullen, he’s then rolled home on every stage. He was bitterly disappointed with his performance in Andalucia, but the course didn’t really suit him then. This flatter parcours does and he certainly has the abilities to sneak into the top 3.
Can everyone’s favourite Swede, TobiasLudvigsson step up and deliver a good result? Like others, he’s been doing a lot of good work for his team leaders and looked solid in the TTT. In Strade he looked particularly annoyed (smashed his handlebars) after a mechanical and long wait for the car forced him to abandon, so I think he must be in reasonable form. Finishing 9th in Andalucia with a dropped chain isn’t a bad result, but he’ll need to avoid crashing/bad luck for once if he’s to go well here!
There are several other riders in with a top 5 shout depending on their performance on the day; Durbridge; Kiryienka, Dowsett, VanEmden and Kung to name a few!
Prediction
The best short TTer in the World wins this!
Dennis is absolutely flying right now, his high GC placing is testament to that, and there is no one here who can match his speed over 10km. I always back him in time trials of this length and probably will continue to do so for a long time. Well, apart from when I picked him in the preview for Stage 2 of Eneco last year but didn’t put any money down.
I’m not letting that happen again. The beacons are lit, and Rohan will answer!
Betting
Another big day and the price is tight, was hoping for 7/4 at least, but yeah…
Dennis 7pts WIN @5/4 with Bet365 (would take evens)
Mullen 0.5pts EW @150/1 with Bet365 (paying 3 places at 1/4 odds, would take 80s)
Plus the 4-fold @5.69/1. 2pts on.
Thanks for reading as always! Can anyone stop Dennis or Dumoulin? And will we have a shake up at the top of the GC standings? There won’t be any previews on here for a few days but I’ll be back with MSR, the Women’s Trofeo Binda and Catalunya before the Belgian racing starts up again. Anyway,
MyTwoSpokesWorth 