Tag: mountains

Tour of the Alps 2017 Stage 5 Preview; Smarano -> Trento

Today’s Recap

A mad, mad stage but it was a great watch!

For a while it looked as if the break was going to be caught just after the final climb of the day, but then the gap went back out again and we were left with Pirazzi and Frankiny up the road. Dupont attacked from the reduced peloton and spent a good 20km chasing the front two, finally making the bridge at around 6km left. However, not much later did the impetus go from the move and the peloton reeled them in at just over 1km from home.

A bunch sprint ensued and it was Montaguti who took the win, edging out Pinot, with a charging Dennis coming home third.

C93LG2RW0AEogvv

That result means Pinot is only 13 seconds behind Thomas going in to tomorrow’s stage. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for them.

The Route

A tough stage to end the Tour that’s been given a 4-star rating by the organisers.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 12.36.11

It will be a fast start as the peloton descends from the gun, dropping down to the valley roads below, before tackling the uncategorised climb of Andalo. At a shade under 9km in length and averaging 5.5%, it’s not exactly an easy opening ramp for the bunch, but it only sets the tone for what’s to come later on in the day.

We then have a long period of shallow descent before the next proper climb on the day and it’s our first classified one; the Passo Durone.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 12.39.32

As you can see, the toughest part of the climb comes in the middle few kilometres, where it averages close to 9.8% for 3kms. It’s definitely too far out from the finish to be the scene of any action, but it will certainly wear the bunch down for the remainder of the stage.

There’s nothing overly exciting in the parcours for the next 40km or so but we then start the main part of the day with just over 75km left.

First of all the Passo Sant Udalrico which is a 7.1km unclassified ascent that averages 6.2%! There’s then a quick descent across the valley before continuing to head upwards and on to the ridiculously long Monte Bondone.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 12.39.44

19km at an average of 6%, ouch!

With several kilometres above 8%, if a team puts the hammer down at the front of the peloton then there could be some serious time gaps.

If you consider the road rises all the way once the peloton travels through Dro then you could say that the climb as a whole is 34.1km at 4.46%…

Yeah, that’s not my idea of fun!

What could almost be decisive as the climb though is the descent that follows, it’s incredibly technical with a lot of hairpin turns. A quick count and I got 30 in total! Clichés of asphalt spaghetti spring to mind.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 13.10.11

If someone is on the limit after the climb and isn’t confident in their descending abilities then they might have an issue here. Luckily for the peloton, it looks to be dry and sunny tomorrow otherwise the descent would be very treacherous and potentially dangerous.

With only 20km left when reaching the bottom of the descent, the riders I’m sure would hope that all the challenges for the day would be over. Well, they’re 90% right, but there is a 2km climb that summits with 7km left. It averages 9% for those 2km so is the perfect springboard for a late attack from the bunch.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 14.12.58

A group won’t have long to organise a chase as they descend all the way until 2km to go, before the run to the line.

How will the stage pan out/Contenders?

I expect fireworks!

Team Sky have been excellent this race so far and have done well to control it considering they only have 6 riders in total. Handily though, they do have two of the strongest riders at this event, in the form of Thomas and Landa. We saw in today’s stage however, that those two were left relatively isolated half-way up the final climb after the rest of the squad had been dropped. Deignan and Elissonde managed to get back on during the descent, but other teams will be looking at that and see it as a positive going in to tomorrow’s stage.

I think we’ll see some riders who aren’t their teams’ main protected rider, but a good second GC option/threat, attempt to get into the morning break on the opening climb of Andalo, i.e. a Cataldo or Bookwalter.  The Astana rider has been very active so far this race.

Consequently, it will force Sky to chase relatively hard from the outset and it will be a long day for their relatively small squad.

Of course, if those type of riders attempt to get into the break then there might not be a break at all for a while and several riders will be dropped from the peloton early. However, I think we will see something go and that will put the onus on Sky.

Nothing much will happen over the next 70km of racing as things settle down but the break will be kept on a tight leash and once we hit the foot slopes of Sant Udalrico we could see only 4 Sky riders at the front of the race. I would imagine that it would be Deignan, Elissonde, Landa and Thomas, and with the latter two being GC options, it’s going to be a tough ask for them to hold things together for the rest of the day.

Maybe the old cliché of “the best form of defence is attack” will come into play?

The Bondone is going to be crazy, expect attacks early and hard!

Cannondale have numbers in the top 10 and they’ll be one of the main protagonists of the stage. Carthy, Formolo and Rolland should be there, alternating attacks and forcing Landa to chase for Thomas.

C929g2UVoAA-fTI

The problem is what I mentioned before; that Landa and Thomas look two of the strongest riders in the race and it will be hard to drop them. However, a relentless barrage of moves off the front of the peloton could see them put into difficulty.

They will need to be dropped before the final few kilometres of the climb as that is where it flattens out and Thomas should really be able to put the power down.

 

Oddly enough, after all that is said and done I think the race might still be together at the summit. Well, kind of. We’ll have no more than 12 riders at the head of the race!

From there, attacks or natural gaps on the descent might occur and that will continue onto the final 20km, with Landa and Thomas having to shadow everything.

The elastic will snap eventually with everyone on the limit and one or two riders will manage to get away. Thomas will hope that they aren’t as much of a threat on GC but that will be tough considering the quality that will be at the head of the race.

There are two relative outsiders I want to keep onside for tomorrow though and they’re both from the same team and nation…

Egan Bernal.

The young Colombian has been good so far this week and there is a lot of news circulating about a potential move to a World Tour team next season. Now, this may have a negative effect on him but I imagine it will be the opposite. He was one of the riders who made the original selection today on the final climb and the long ascent tomorrow should suit his diminutive nature. As a former mountain biker, he won’t be afraid of the descent tomorrow, that’s for sure. Considering he’s not as an immediate GC threat as other riders, he might just sneak away and take a momentous win!

Rodolfo Torres. 

TORRES-Rodolfo-Andres101pp-630x420

Likewise, Torres also made the front selection today of around 12 riders over the last climb of the day; he was the rider who narrowly avoided Scarponi when the Italian crashed on the descent! Another lightweight climber, he’ll be hoping to use that to his advantage over his more gravitationally challenged competitors. Certainly not a rider to be discounted.

Prediction

It will be a tough race, but the strength of Thomas and Landa will shine through and they’ll be able to mark the likes of Pozzovivo, Pinot etc out of the race. Instead, it will create an opportunity for a “lesser” rider to win the day and I’ll go for the precociously talented Bernal to seal the day!

Bernal-Coppi-Bartali-attack-2016-credit-androni-giocattoli

Betting

Both with Bet365;

0.5pt EW Bernal @ 66/1 (would take 40s)

0.5pt EW Torres @ 80/1 (would take 50s)

 

Thanks as always for reading and I hope you enjoyed the much longer blog today! Who do you think will win? Next on the blog will be Liege previews for men and women with one of them possibly coming out tomorrow, if not they’ll both be on Saturday. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

Ruta del Sol Stage 2 Preview; Torredonjimeno -> Alto Peña del Águila

Today’s Recap

I told you that was going to be the stage of the week, it’s all downhill from here!

We had attacks from almost all of the GC favourites; some classic Spanish stop start racing; groups reforming and breaking up more often than Take That; Reichenbach impersonating a HGV in the final few kilometres; and after all of that, Valverde still won. Easily!

c4uefibwqaaarde

Nonetheless, the stop start racing has meant the GC is still nicely poised going into the next couple of days, with 10 riders only 5 seconds down at most. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

An even tougher day of climbing.

vuelta-a-andalucia-ruta-ciclista-del-sol-2017-stage-2-1485552244

The road does undulate a lot in the final 50km, but I would expect this stage to come down to the final climb, the earlier ones will just sap the legs.

The climb itself is typical of what we get in this region, fairly short but steep! 5.2km long, averaging 9.8%, there is certainly chance for big time-gaps here.

I’ve managed to locate the strava profile of the climb, which can be viewed here.

screen-shot-2017-02-15-at-19-15-54

The hardest section is 2km->4km, averaging a stiff 11.25%! This is where the proper climbers will hope to make some gaps as it gets easier in the final kilometre with the gradient dropping to around 3% by the time they reach the finish line.

How will the stage pan out?

With there already being significant time gaps and no bonus seconds on offer, there is a chance that we might get a breakaway. However, with this being the first mountain top finish and early season bragging rights to play for, I’m fairly confident this will be another GC affair.

Contenders

This will be brief, as you only really need to look at the top performers from today and there are clearly two riders who are a level above the rest in my opinion.

Valverde was in admirable control of the stage today. He followed Contador relatively easily after he was surprised by his countryman’s early attack and from there he never looked in trouble. He gave it a nudge on the descent to see if he could get away but played it cool once he realised that wasn’t going to happen. Really, if it wasn’t for him being such a wiley old fox and refusing to properly work with Contador they could have distanced the rest by the top of the climb. He’ll enjoy the steep stuff tomorrow and the climb looks like the perfect length for him, plus his finishing sprint should see off any challenge if there’s a little gallop to the line.

Contador looked great for his first race back and will be pleased with where his form is at just now. He had everyone else in trouble on the climb apart from Valverde which is bound to please him, well, maybe not! He won’t like the look of the end of tomorrow’s stage and the thoughts of a TT so I can imagine he’ll hit out early again like he did today. With the stage finish at the top of the mountain this time round, can everyone hold his wheel as he dances on the pedals?

c4uue6ixuaar7bq

As for the rest, Rosa was the guy that looked the strongest on the climb but I can’t see him beating the two Spaniards.

The only way that Contador/Valverde will lose if they start messing about like they did today and that leaves an opportunity for someone to attack. But I can’t really see that happening here. There is a completely different dynamic when the stage finishes on top of a climb rather than at the bottom and they’ll be full gas all the way to the top. Plus, with the TT to come, I think they’ll be sensible and work reasonably well to extend their time gap over the likes of Izagirre, before possibly attacking each other in the final 1km or so.

Prediction

After writing him in italics, and delaying the inevitable yesterday, he’s going to be in bold today.

Valverde wins.

article-alejandro-valverde-no-correra-tres-grandes-2017-57ff846d9cc05

Betting

Absolutely no value in the stage markets so I’m going to go for this H2H treble at 6.1/1 with Bet365. 2pts on.

screen-shot-2017-02-15-at-19-47-15

Thanks as per for reading! Apologies for this being so short but after today I don’t see the point on rambling on about any outsiders for this stage. Normal service shall resume for the TT tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF Stage 9 Preview: Vielha val d’Aran -> Andorre Alcalis

Today’s Recap

Well, where do I start?

The stage started off frantically again and we only got a proper break on the Tourmalet itself. Only Pinot, Majka and TMartin managed to get any kind of gap. However, they were reeled in on the penultimate climb and Team Sky did their thing. On the Peyresourde we got some attacks near the top, with Henao and Quintana probably looking the strongest. Yet, it was Froome who made the winning move just over the summit of the climb. He made a daring descent (although was helped by those stalling behind, Quintana will be kicking himself as he should have covered the move) and held on for the win.

Cm7yuncXEAAC-LE

I remember hearing a while ago that Sky had a “secret training camp” during the Winter. I think we can all agree that it was descending (among other things) that their main focus was on. They’ve made a real improvement in that area this year.

Screen Shot 2016-07-09 at 16.47.41

As for the stage itself, the length of time that the break took to form was its own downfall. If it was established after only 30kms then the pace wouldn’t have been as high for the rest of the day. As it took until the Tourmalet to form, only the best riders could get away. It also meant that the time they could build up was limited. The blog picks never really had any chance because of this. Plaza and Clement were with the peloton over the Tourmalet but weren’t there for long.

Onto tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

The final stage in the Pyrenees will see the riders cross the border into Andorra, and another tough climbing route awaits them.

Stage-1464948885

Starting off with a Cat-1 ascent straight out the blocks will not be music to the sprinters ears. Once again, there is no profile of this climb in the road book, but there is a Strava segment for it that you can see here. Going off the strava segment it’s 19.4km long at 6% with a fairly steady gradient. However, the stage profile seems to start further up the climb, and suggests it’s 13.7km at 6.1%. Either way, it’s a long and potentially (most likely) painful start to the day.

Once over the summit they have a long descent followed by another long period of flat/descending before the 2nd Cat-1 of the day: Port del Cantó. Again, there is no profile in the road book, so strava once again becomes useful. View the profile here. Both stage profile and strava seem to agree that it’s around 19km in length and a shade over 5% in average gradient. Not the most difficult but it will sap the legs. The sprinters will hope the peloton is on a go slow and that they can make it over the climb with the bunch. If not, they’ll have difficulties on the following sections.

After they reach the valley from the descent the road constantly rises up the intermediate sprint point. Three climbs are then tackled over the closing 50km.

Stage-1464964023

The first two of these climbs both have tough stretches (over 9%) within them and average out at over 8%. However, the battle tomorrow will more than likely be left until the final climb of the day. Officially 10.1km at 7.2% this a very tough end to the day. There are a couple of sections of “respite” on the way up where the gradient goes below 6%, however these will only offer a small bit of recovery. It is interesting to note that the final km is shallower than a lot of the rest of the climb but it’s still not flat (averaging 5.3%). Will we see gaps made before here?

How will the stage pan out?

After the electric pace the past few days, I hope the peloton takes it easier tomorrow. To put it into perspective, the average speed of today’s stage where there was over 4000m of climbing came in at 37.1km/h. The previous days speed was 42.7km/h. Stage 6 (a sprint stage) was 40.2km/h. We’ll have a very dull 2nd week at this rate.

But with the race starting on a Cat 1 climb I fear we could be in for another fast day. Hopefully the senior riders see sense and call some kind of truce. Although I’m probably being wishful.

The stage tomorrow is a good one on paper for a break to get away. The long descents and flats are great to build up a lead. On the contrary, if someone dangerous gets up the road Sky could in theory control it quite well too with Stannard and Rowe doing the work. It really is 50/50. We could see a situation like Stage 20 of this years Giro where it all guns blazing from the flag drop, but I think it’s too early in the race for that. Remember, the Tour is won in 3 weeks, not 1.

I’ll lean towards my favoured outcome of two races, meaning that a break gets away and manages to stick this time. Sky already have their stage win and are in Yellow so won’t be concerned by the stage getting away. The only team I think who will stop a break tomorrow is Movistar. Mainly because the way Froome and Quintana were climbing today, I don’t think any of the other GC guys will fancy their chances against them up the final climb.

This of course all changes if we do get a GC threat away then Sky will have to chase.

Who are the break contenders?

Pretty much the same type of rider as yesterday’s preview so I’ll keep this fairly short and sweet!

Plaza. It would be sods law that the time I don’t mention him he gets into the break.

382153-ruben-plaza-gen

Diego Rosa. The Italian had a very easy day today rolling in with the gruppetto almost 40 minutes down on Froome. He’s a very classy bike rider on his day, and won a very impressive breakaway stage at Pais Vasco earlier in the year. Furthermore, he had a good showing at the Dauphiné too, finishing 8th on GC. He’s not done much here, I think that changes tomorrow.

Clement. Made one of the breaks today that was pulled back. I think he’ll give it another go tomorrow.

Tony Gallopin. A disappointing start to the Tour, he’ll now be targeting stage wins. Mountain top finishes aren’t his forte, but he definitely would be a tough one to beat out of the right break.

Tony-Gallopin

Prediction

I’ll not heed the advice and thoughts of others and say that the correct breakaway stays and wins the stage. With a GC battle behind them. The rider who I think can stay out on this type of course is Diego Rosa. Maybe we’ll even see a similar celebration this time round?

sptdw4007_670

Betting

Rosa 0.6pt EW @ 125/1 with Bet365

Plaza 0.3pt EW @150/1 with Betfair/PaddyPower

Gallopin 0.2pt EW 150/1 with PaddyPower/Betfair/Bet365

Clement 0.2pt EW 300/1 with Bet365/PP/Betfair

 

I’m hoping for some exciting racing tomorrow but on two fronts. Let’s just hope one of the guys above makes it into the break! Enjoy the race wherever, you’re watching it from. The whole stage is to be broadcast on TV so that’ll be good! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.