Tag: montaguti

Giro d’Italia 2018 Stage 12 Preview: Osimo -> Imola

Today’s Recap

We saw a big fight to get into the morning breakaway as several moves were brought back in the first 20km of the day. Eventually Sanchez and De Marchi managed to forge clear, with Masnada, Maestri and Turrin slowly joining them one by one. After all the effort that teams put into make the move, it was a somewhat disappointing group that went clear so those behind turned their attention to setting it up for their riders late on.

A brave effort from Sanchez and De Marchi saw them caught within the final 5km where Stybar and Wellens launched an attack from the peloton. They were never given too much leeway though and once onto the final rise the pink jersey flew from the front of the bunch, on a mission to take as much time as possible. A coming together of wheels behind had seen a few of the other GC candidates lose some crucial time but in the end Yates’ margin of victory wasn’t anything crazy over his nearest rival as he only gained two seconds (before bonuses) on Dumoulin who himself finished second..

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Formolo showed that he’s in good form after his one bad day last week, taking home third place.

Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Pretty dull day in the saddle until the final 20km. Definitely not one to watch from the start!

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So I’m going to cut right to the chase here and skip those opening 194km along the coast as the wind isn’t playing ball for echelons. Boo.

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With a 4.35km climb that averages 4.2% cresting with only 7.6km to go, it offers a perfect chance for opportunists to launch a late attack. This is especially paramount when the last 600m of the climb comes in at over 7.5%. With a descent almost all the way to the line, albeit it is shallow with a gradient of -3% until it flattens out under the Flamme Rouge. A chase will have to organised quickly if they don’t want anyone disappearing on them!

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The finish itself is pretty simple and on wide roads too as they use the Imola motor racing circuit.

How will the stage pan out?

It looks set to be a battle between the late attackers and the sprinters tomorrow. Last time we were here a break managed to stay away but the route was a lot harder that day. Although given how weird this Giro has been so far, we’ll probably see the morning move of 4 stick…

The Tre Monti climb is hard enough to put the sprinters into difficulty if it is ridden at an aggressive pace, especially with the few kilometres where the gradient is above 7%. A team can drill the first steep part of the climb, putting the sprinters into the red before continuing the hurt on the flat mid-section, after which their rider of the day will launch a stinging attack in the closing kilometre of the climb that none of the sprinter’s teams can cope with.

It will then be a frantic descent for both anyone out front and those behind who want to set it up for the sprint.

Potential Attackers

Looking at the teams I’m going to highlight some guys who might be given freedom to chase a result tomorrow:

AG2R – Montaguti

Astana – LLS / Lutsenko / Villella / Kangert, pretty much their whole team aside from Lopez and Bilbao!

Bahrain – Mohoric / Boaro / Visconti

BMC – Roche / De Marchi

Israel – Hermans / Plaza

Lotto FixAll – Hansen / Van der Sande

Katusha – Martin / Goncalves

Trek – Pantano / Pedersen

UAE – Ulissi / Conti

There are a few teams I’ve left off there but for the likes of Androni and Bardiani we could see any of their riders go on the attack. Likewise, I’ve left off the majority of the “bigger” sprinter’s teams as I think they’ll be all in for their fast man.

I’ve highlighted the rider from each team who I think would do best.

Sprinters

It will be an interesting battle to see which of the sprinters hangs on best over the climb and what team-mates they have organised and ready to chase down any attack.

Viviani – Shown he can be beaten but if he is on form he should make it over this climb. Into the second week of a GT who knows.

Bennett – One of the only sprinters to make the front group on stage 10, he was actually one of the lower finishes today. Saving energy or cooked?

Modolo – The opposite of Bennett today, he finished only a minute down on Yates and alongside team-mate Woods. Is he getting better?

Van Poppel – Probably not good enough to make it over the climb.

Bonifazio – Not seen his climbing legs as of late but he in theory should be one of the better climbing sprinters. We’ll know how he’s going as to when/if Mohoric attacks.

The other sprinters will be fighting for positions 4-10.

Prediction

I think a late attack might actually stick tomorrow, especially if we get a small group of 4 or 5 guys away on the final climb who co-operate well together until the final kilometre.

I’ll go with the local Matteo Montaguti to take the honours.

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He hails from the town of Forli, where the second intermediate sprint of the day is. Back in 2015 when the stage finished here he was in the break of the day then, but his competition was just too hard. Tomorrow with only one ascent of the climb he certainly has a good chance of launching a strong attack. If not, he might fancy his chances in a reduced bunch sprint.

Vai vai Matteo!

Betting

Someone like Mohoric would also be ideal for this stage but I’m not taking him at that price. I can’t really back a pure sprinter with confidence either so the late attackers who can pack a punch it is…

0.5pt EW Van der Sande @ 80/1 (would take 66/1)

0.5pt EW Montaguti @ 250/1 (Would take 150/1)

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and how? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Pologne 2017 Stage 5 Preview; Olimp Nagawczyna -> Rzeszów

Today’s Recap

Long, hot day for the riders.

A breakaway escaped early on but was never given too much leeway and was brought back for the inevitable bunch sprint.

Sky were the team that was keen to hit the front early and they controlled the final few kilometres up until around 600m to go. Mezgec flew past them on the outside with Ewan in tow, dropping the Aussie off at roughly 175m left. He didn’t have it all his own way as Sagan challenged him early, and Van Poppel had a good run at him late, but it was not enough to stop the Orica man taking the stage.

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Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A short and sharp stage at only 130km in length, we should hopefully see some fast and aggressive racing.

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You can view the whole profile on VeloViewer here.

The reason I’m not using the style of image that I have used over the past few stages is that due to the short nature of the stage, it almost seems to oversimplify things.

The day starts off with a climb for the riders, with the road almost rising from the gun.

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Averaging 3% for 5.5km it should entice some of the strong riders in the peloton to try to get into the breakaway. It does average almost 7% for roughly 1.5kms which makes up the brunt of the elevation gain but the false flat afterwards will be of equal importance for the formation of the break.

From there, the stage is fairly easy with only a few one to two kilometre long climbs breaking up the flat roads. However, from 70kms in, the road starts to become more rolling.

First up is a 2.2km climb at 5%, followed not long after by a 2.7km climb at 5.5%. Straight off the descent that follows the riders will climb once again; although a lot more gradually with 3km at 2.8%.

The riders will then tackle the final climb of the day for the first time, although from a different direction than they will later. If you take into account some of the false flat afterwards then it’s 3.4km at 4.2% but that includes an opening 1.2km at 8.5%.

Second time round it is arguably even easier. The road does rise gently in the preceding 4kms but the main climbing takes place over 1.3km.

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Not overly tough, it is still steep enough to be a launchpad for an attack. With only 11.6km to the finish will we see someone take a risk and go for it?

As for the finish itself, it is incredibly straightforward with wide roads and no real sharp turns.

How will the stage pan out?

Break or reduced bunch sprint, that is the question? Maybe with a slim chance of a late attack going.

With plenty of riders far down on GC, there is a good chance for some strong riders to make the break early in the day. The starting climb is an opportunity for them to get away but I have a feeling it might be after the climb and on the flat-lands where the elastic finally snaps.

It is a day for the breakaway specialists in the sense that the climbs aren’t too hard so that they suit a climber but instead seem more tailor-made to a powerful rider and classics specialist.

The key to how the stage plays out is Bora.

If they really fancy Sagan’s chances for the overall then tomorrow’s stage looks ideal for him and he would pretty much be a shoe-in for 10 bonus seconds. It will require them to control the stage all day, but at 130km they might just do that.

I wouldn’t expect other teams to help as;

  1. I don’t think many other sprinters would make the finish as if Bora do control the day, they’ll set a fast pace on the climbs to distance them.
  2. No GC team will help Sagan to gain time.

I’m really split on this but I think the break just edges it, purely because it relies on Bora to control all day on their own. 55/45.

Time to play that game again…

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Breakaway Candidates

You know the score by now; proverbial hat and names.

I’ll throw a couple of candidates into the mix, nothing extensive as always!

Niki Terpstra.

I’m a big fan of the Dutchman as some of you may know if you read some of my cobbled classics previews. He’s a bit of an arsehole apparently, but a talented one nonetheless. Quick Step have Jungels and De Plus for their GC challenge but the team has also been very attacking throughout the Tour so far. One guy who has kept relatively quiet is Terpstra. This is his first race back after pulling out of Ster ZLM so his form is a bit unknown, however, he always goes well in this part of the season. With one eye on defending his Eneco (now BinckBank) Tour title next week, I get the feeling he might stretch his legs tomorrow. A man who’s strong on short hills, the climbs tomorrow should be of no difficulty. Give him a gap, and he’ll be tough to bring back!

Matteo Montaguti.

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The Italian veteran has a penchant for finding himself in good breakaways but is always beaten by a better man. However, he is also good in the hilly (not mountainous) Italian classics and tomorrow’s stage reminds me of that type of racing; a few climbs in a tactical position but a finish that could also end in a sprint. Back in April at the Tour of the Alps he took his first victory in 7 years, winning a reduced bunch sprint of 49 guys. It doesn’t exactly instil the most confidence, but what it does highlight is that he can sprint well after a tough day. If a breakaway group makes it to the line he has every chance of winning the gallop!

Prediction

Terpstra to warm up nicely for his title defense next week with a win here.

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Or Sagan wins a reduced bunch sprint to extend his GC lead.

Betting

0.5pt WIN on Terpstra @ 150/1

0.5pt WIN on Montaguti @ 150/1

Would take 66s lowest for them both, and that’s at a push.

Thanks as always for reading and apologies for this being out later than normal; thought I’d go out on the bike myself! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will the break make it, or will Sagan romp home in the sprint? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 Preview; Olbia -> Tortolì

Today’ Recap

I love the Giro!

A stage that should have ended with a sprint winner, Lukas Pöstlberger decided that wouldn’t be the case and attacked from the head of the peloton in a chaotic finale. With the bunch hesitating he seized his opportunity and didn’t look back until 100m to go where he sat up to salute the crowd.

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Behind Ewan was very fast and took second comfortably, beating Greipel into third. Modolo blew his load too quickly and was the first sprinter to jump when they were all looking at each other, eventually fading to 5th. Nonetheless, it means a small profit on the day which after that stage result, I’ll happily take!

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A much hillier affair than today’s opening stage, the riders head down the east side of the island to the finish town of Tortolì. At 221km in length, it’s not exactly a short stage either!

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There’s a lot of rolling, uncategorised climbing in the opening half of the day so the breakaway in theory should be relatively strong but we have seen it in the past where teams are quite happy to sit up early and just let the first move go.

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There’s a chance we will see a new leader in the KOM jersey after the stage and that will most likely go to whoever crests the final climb of the day first.

Speaking of which there is no official profile of the climb itself so as is tradition, I have made a Strava profile of the final 75km.

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You can view it here.

Going off of the official profile, the Cat 2 climb averages 3.63% for a very long 26.6km! However, as you can see it does go up in steps and there are some steeper sections involved in the climb; with 2km at 6.7% and 1km at 8.1% for example.

Nonetheless, the official route profile for the stage as a whole seems to be pretty bang on, which is surprising for the Giro!

The descent is a lot grippier than some of the riders would have hoped for, with a few pitches back uphill before they get down to sea-level with only 10km remaining.

From there it will be a flat-out run to the line and a battle between any escapees and those pulling for a sprint behind.

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The finish itself is very simple and should see a drag race to the line over the last 2km.

Who will be there to contest it though? Which leads us nicely onto…

How will the stage pan out?

I’m intrigued to see how some of the teams approach the last climb; gradient wise it’s not tough, but it is very long and grippy.

This could obviously put some of the sprinters into trouble if some puncheurs get their teams to set a fast pace which I can see happen. Yet, I can almost equally see the break kept on a tight leash by the sprinters teams from early in the stage so that they don’t have to go too deep on the climb to control it.

Ultimately though, I think we’ll see some sort of middle ground, where a few of the fast guys will be dropped but there will be those that make it over. It’s just trying to figure out who makes it that’s the tricky part!

Will the weather have any influence in that?

In short, no.

It looks set to be another glorious day and although the wind is blowing strongly from the West, most of the route is protected from it. But, I’ll live in hope once again!

Sprinters

I think the day will be too tough for someone like Greipel, you can never count him out but I just can’t see him making it. Likewise with Ewan, I’m on the fence. He looks great just now and is a small guy so that will benefit him, but I’m unsure if he has the climbing pedigree to contend.

I don’t really know why I think that those two might not make it but the following guys will?! Anyway…

One sprinter that you would expect to make it over the climb is Gaviria.

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He’s an exceptionally talented rider and although he is a bit unknown on a long steady climb like this then I think he has the talent to make it with the front group. Will it take too much out of him for the sprint in the end? Possibly, but after being bitterly disappointed with today’s result he’ll want to make amends.

Modolo – Looking back to last year’s Giro and more specifically stage 11 to Asolo; Modolo was one of two “sprinters” who are at this Giro to make the finish with the GC favourites that day. That was a tough stage with a very steep climb coming near the end of the race, but will the Italian be able to cope with the longer drag tomorrow? We’ll just have to wait and see but I think he’ll be up there again.

Nizzolo – The other rider who featured on that stage last year, I was surprised with his 4th place finish today. He is a rider I rate highly and I’m looking forward to seeing him back in full flight later in the year but I fear this stage could be too tough, too early! Nonetheless, he is certainly a danger. If he doesn’t make it, Trek might turn to Stuyven who won a similar stage at the Vuelta in 2015.

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Bennett – After their incredible first day, Bora will more than likely turn to the Irishman tomorrow. Pelucchi got dropped on the little bump today so has no chance tomorrow. Of course, there is a chance they will defend the jersey but in his post race interview Bennett said he was hopeful of a sprint tomorrow and getting his own opportunity. He’s under-rated as a climbing sprinter in my opinion. One thing that is prominent in my mind while writing this is that he won the intermediate sprint point after the Cat-1 Col de l’Espigoulier on Stage 6 of this year’s Paris Nice. What was most impressive about it all, was the peloton was climbing from the gun and that was the first summit of the race, plenty of other sprinters were dropped but Bennett made it over. With confidence flowing through the team just now, he’s one to watch tomorrow.

Sbaragli, Montaguti and co will all be fighting for another top 10 placing. I am intrigued to see if Dimension Data try to pace the climb because they’ll be confident in Sbaragli’s climbing ability.

Late Attack?

It is possible that we see a late attack make it but the pan-flat final 10km aren’t great news for any would be escapees.

Nonetheless, I’m sure there will be some who will give it a go. Look to Sanchez, Campenaerts and Pozzato for example!

After all that though, I think it will come down to a reasonably large sprint of maybe 80-100 riders.

Prediction

Bora to continue their race and Bennett to take the win.

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He’ll make it over the climb no bother and power home to victory, with the Maglia Rosa on lead-out duties! The best way to defend the jersey is to win again 😉.

Betting

1pt EW Bennett @ 18/1 with Bet365 (would take down to 12/1)

That’s all for now but if I see anything I like later, H2H wise, then I’ll put them up on my Twitter.

Thanks again for reading and as always any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will it be a “sprinter” as such, or will some of the puncheurs make the pace hard? Should be an interesting closing 60km either way! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.