Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 19 Preview: Lleida -> Andorra. Naturlandia

Today’s Recap

Nailed on sprint day huh? The peloton severely underestimated the strength of the trio of riders up the road and what a tailwind on the run to the line can do. After becoming a duo in the final 5km, Wallays and Bystrom pushed on and co-operated well all the way until the Flamme Rouge. Things got a little bit cagey but they just had enough of an advantage for the Lotto Soudal rider to bide his time and go for the sprint, taking a famous victory.

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A super strong rider and hard-working domestique, it was nice to see him take another pro win. Bystrom got a second place out of the day while Sagan followed just on his wheels, “winning” the bunch sprint for third. I did say in yesterday’s preview that I thought Sagan might have it today so him coming home first of the group reaffirmed to me that his form is nearly there now.

So the sprinters were denied their fun today but it was mostly their own doing to be fair, will we see the GC men slip up tomorrow? Let’s have a look at what is in store for them.

The Route

A pretty easy day out, although the terrain is deceptively rolling at times, but with one big sting in the tail.

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No beating around the bush, tomorrow is all about the final climb.

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It is a long climb and is in fact one of the peaks with the most amount of ascending in this race. As you can see, the toughest ramps come in the opening 7km before it “flattens out” for the final 10km. The easier gradients to the line could see some kind of sprint between riders but that is of course assuming it is not split up earlier on.

One important aspect to note is that the finish is above 2000m and this might have an effect on the breathing of the riders. Some perform better than others at high altitude. Thankfully for those who suffer, they aren’t above 2000m for long so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

How will the stage pan out?

Looks as if it will be much the same pattern as previous days; where Mitchelton will be happy to let the break get up the road and take the stage win. However, unlike previous days, there will be an incentive for both Movistar and Quick Step to chase, as Valverde and Mas were on superb form the other day. Throw in Astana and Lopez to the mix and we might just see an alliance to keep a tight leash on things.

Furthermore, it is an easy stage to control tomorrow and the squads can use their rouleurs without fear of them cracking on the climbs because there aren’t really any before the summit finish.

We could see them all take the approach of just let Mitchelton do the work and tire them out but the prospect of a controllable day and bonus seconds on the line should be too much.

We’ll see a GC winner tomorrow.

Tactics

Does someone go early on the climb in a bid to regain some valuable time, hoping that there is looking around by others? We could see some inside the latter half of the top 10 go on the offensive and as they are not an immediate threat, the might be given some leeway, just like Pinot’s win earlier in the race.

Quintana and Kruijsiwjk are in the position of where they could probably attack and get away without being latched onto straight away by Yates and his team. However, if the gap starts to grow to them then some panic might set in.

Movistar are at a clear tactical advantage with having both Quintana and Valverde in the top 6 of GC but the Colombian has lacked the legs the past few week. If he has managed to turn it around then I would expect a hail mary attack from home, while Valverde can just sit in and let the race leader do the work.

Contenders

Yates.

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Up until Wednesday’s summit finish most would have said Yates has been the strongest climber in this race and I was one of them. The question we now have to ask, and so does the rest of the peloton, is: was that 8 second loss just a blip or a crack starting to appear? Tomorrow might not give a lot more away either but it could quite easily be another Prato Nevoso situation. The Brit currently lives in Andorra so no doubt he knows the roads better than most and that could be a big advantage, as is having his brother up to support him who seems to have “done a Poels” and timed his third-week peak to perfection.

Valverde.

If Valverde can get over the steeper sections earlier on in the climb then he will love the look of the profile near the finish, rating his chances of nabbing some bonus seconds highly. The Movistar man is one of those riders I mentioned above who will be thankful the climb just tips the 2000m mark as he has never been one to go too well at altitude. He looks as strong as ever though and I would be surprised to see him crack tomorrow.

Mas.

Will the young pretender prove his worth as a fully fledged contender? I think the answer to that is already “yes”, despite whatever may happen over the coming days. Touted as Contador 2.0, he has some lofty heights to live up to but Quick Step seem to be managing him very well. Like Yates, he currently resides in Andorra and says he knows the perfect place to attack. The issue for him is that he is now a marked man, unlike earlier in the race.

Lopez.

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The rider whom the higher altitude should suit the best, he will hope to go better than his slightly disappointing performance on Stage 17 after his team did a lot of the work. Nonetheless, he only lost 2 seconds to Yates and 10 to Valverde/Mas so it wasn’t too bad a result. The Colombian now sits on the tipping point of not being immediately marked so he could slip away in the closing kilometre or so. However, he is still close enough to have a watchful eye kept on. I’m sure Yates won’t want to give him 30 seconds and let him right back into it.

Kruijswijk.

The Dutchman has had a really up and down race so far but still finds himself somewhat in contention for the overall title. He’s said in the press that it will be all or nothing from him so I expect either a crazy early attack from him tomorrow or he will save all of that for Saturday. It is hard to read what type of day he will be on but if he is on a good day, then he could be tough to beat.

Pinot.

The one rider who no longer has a real chance of winning the race overall but that I fancy to go well tomorrow, the Frenchman had his jour-sans on Stage 17, now finding himself 5’31 down on GC. Yet, we saw with his exceptional performance on Lagos de Covadonga that he is more than capable of hanging with the big boys. As one of the GC riders with a fast kick, I think he has a very good chance.

Prediction

A Movistar, Astana and Quick Step alliance keeps the break in check before the climb. Quintana goes early but unfortunately for him he just doesn’t have the legs anymore this race and he is reeled back in by Adam Yates. A little bit of stalling in the main group sees Pinot attack and in a déjà vu scenario, he manages to steal a march and take the stage in an idental manner to Covadonga.

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Behind, Yates cracks a little again and Valverde gains the second place bonuses, but the Mitchelton man remains in the lead – only by a margin of 16 seconds going into the final mountain day.

Betting

No bet for now

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will the break be allowed any freedom? Or will the GC teams control it? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 18 Preview: Ejea de los Caballeros -> Lleida

Today’s Recap

I did say that finish would be nuts and it was made even crazier by some thick fog which made it look like something out of a mythical film. Despite Euskadi Murias’ best attempt to entice some to bring the break back for the stage win, those ahead were left to fight out for the day.

It was a big slog and a group of four came through the Flamme Rouge together. Majka hit out early but faded, De La Cruz rode a consistent tempo but he lost contact with the main two. Teuns put in a strong attack but Woods stuck with him and the Canadian made one big dig to drop the BMC rider. They still had 500m to go and Teuns was slowly clawing his way back to Woods as he seemed to tie up a bit, but it was too late. The EF Education First rider takes the biggest win of his career and an emotional one too that he dedicated to his recent stillborn son.

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Behind there was some movement in the GC. Mas and Valverde were the strongest and managed to take 8 seconds from Yates, with Lopez a further two behind. Not a severe time loss for the current race leader but is a small crack starting to show? He’ll be concerned that it is very reminiscent of his Prato Nevoso performance in the Giro that saw him lose a load of time the following day. Thankfully for him, there are no climbs tomorrow for him to worry about so he can rest up. The biggest losers of the top 6 on the day were Kruijswijk and Quintana who came home 1’04 behind the Mas/Valverde duo. Not ideal but not entirely catastrophic but it means they will have to be very attacking in the last two mountain days.

Anyway, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A nice flat stage to keep the sprinters happy.

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Nothing overly exciting to talk about here with only 1000m of elevation gain over the 186kms.

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Within the last 3kms the riders will have to go through 4 roundabouts, with the last coming at the Flamme Rouge. They aren’t overly technical but do offer a good opportunity for a team to string things out.

It does rise to the finish line with the final 700m averaging 3%, making the timing of the sprint a lot more important!

Sprinters

Do you really want me to go through all of them again? I can’t imagine you do and I can’t be bothered to either…

Viviani starts as the clear favourite. His lead-out for the stage 10 win was one of the best I have seen in many years. Quick Step will expect to take control in the finale again but given the slightly more technical run-in there is a chance for teams to split up their train.

Nizzolo and Van Poppel have come close on occasion and both could be up there if Viviani has suffered the past few days. There is a chance for a “lesser” sprinter to steal a podium such as Consonni, Soto or Sarreau to name a few. Even Max “speed bump” Walscheid might actually make the finish this time!

Yet, there is only one man who I think can beat Viviani and you know what, I think he will.

Prediction

Sagan has gotten stronger as this race goes on and he desperately wants one last win in the World Champ’s jersey.

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He wants it so much, that he and the team decided to change their plans of him leaving on the second rest-day so that he could race here and get some hard training in at the same time. One of the best bike handlers in the world, he will be able to guide his way through the closing kilometres on his own. The kick up to the line in the last kilometre should benefit him and as someone who times his sprints perfectly, I think he has what it takes to topple Viviani.

Betting

No bet, maybe Sagan on the exchanges later if you can get 5/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and why? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.