Critérium du Dauphiné 2018 Stage 6 Preview: Frontenex › La Rosière Espace San Bernardo

Just a heads up, this preview will be shorter than normal as I have to write for both tomorrow and Sunday’s stage this evening due to me being away this weekend. It also means that in tomorrow’s preview I’ll just be assuming a few things and there will be no “today’s recap”.

Today’s Recap

A strong break went but they were never given too much leeway from Sky and after Bora took the bait, things were close enough once onto the final climb to ensure that a GC rider was going to win the day.

Dan Martin took advantage of a lull in the pace once things regrouped after a Soler attack, with the UAE rider putting in a stinging dig that no one could, or wanted to, match. Geoghegan Hart returned to the head of what was left of the peloton and set tempo for Thomas, before swinging off at roughly 1km to go. The Welshman attacked and only Bardet could follow, but he could only manage to do so for a few hundred metres before swinging off. It left Thomas to chase down Martin on his own and he was slowly reeling him in all the way until the line but it was too late.

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Martin held on for the win with Thomas finishing 4 seconds behind and Yates sprinted out of the pack to round out the podium in third, a further 10 seconds back.

The result means that Thomas moves into Yellow and increases his lead over everyone bar Martin, with nearest challenger Caruso sitting 1’09 down going into the weekend.

Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A tad over 4000m of climbing in only 110km, this could be interesting. Furthermore, this will pretty much be a carbon copy of stage 11 on this year’s Tour.

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The climbs are long, but none of them are overly steep, with the toughest ascent of the day being the first. You can just read the percentages on the profile, no time for semantics today!

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As for the final climb it starts off easy and finishes easy, it is just the middle third which has quite a high average gradient. Anyone looking to put their rivals into difficulty will need to do so here.

How will the stage pan out?

Pffffft, no idea!

On paper at least, you would imagine that it should be a GC day given the amount of climbing involved but after Thomas’ dominant performance today, some might not be so keen on having their teams chase all day.

Therefore, we’ll need to see some brave and most likely doomed early attacks from the GC contenders, or Sky will just control things all day. The long, steady climbs are perfect for them. It’s then a question of them making it a GC day or not? They don’t need to as they can afford to ride a defensive race, but when has that ever stopped them before?

Or of course, we could see a hail mary, guns-blazing stage where the peloton is down to 20 guys after the first climb.

I do actually think the break has a decent chance tomorrow because of how strong Thomas and Sky looked today. Even if things get crazy on the opening climb the yellow jersey shouldn’t be exposed and I would expect him to have at least 3 team-mates with him when everyone else is down to one or two. Teams will need to be inventive to beat Sky so sending a man up the road can never hurt as they can always act as a bridge for a GC attack late on. Of course, Sky can then play the bluff game and let the gap extend out too far for the man up the road to be made redundant.

To sum up: I don’t know.

As it is more fun to play the breakaway lottery than just say Thomas will win, I’ll do that…

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Tony Gallopin.

See yesterday’s preview. He was with the main group of GC favourites for a while up the final climb, highlighting he has good form. Bardet couldn’t match Thomas today and it will be a tough ask for him to win the title. Ag2R potentially will change their approach and be aggressive by getting Gallopin up the road.

Guillaume Martin.

Birthday boy, the Wanty rider has impressed me so far and he is definitely one of my favourite Pro-Conti level climbers. He sits a rather awkward 4:15 down on GC so it might cause Sky into chasing but then again, they would fancy reducing the gap on the final climb and he wouldn’t be much of a threat the following day after being in the break all day.

Michael Valgren.

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Yep, you read that right. He’s been super impressive so far this race, staying with Bilbao deep into the climbs. With his team-leader falling away a bit today, the Dane might be given the opportunity to chase his own result tomorrow. He’s a brute of a rider, but when he burst onto the scene he was considered a potential GC rider in the future. Can he roll back the clock? He finished 14th on the similarly short stage in Paris Nice this year.

Dylan Teuns.

The BMC rider just disappeared from the head of the standings on stage 2, where he finished 5 minutes down, and followed that up by coming home 13 minutes behind on stage 4. I thought he could have potentially been ill but a 33rd place today after helping Caruso would suggest that he is either on the mend, or was deliberately losing time. He has the ability to win this tomorrow from a breakaway group.

Short Stages – Overkill?

Just a quick few thoughts on short stages in general.

I can understand where organisers are coming from in trying to put in a short stage here or there to spice things up and throw the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons, but to have three in a row here is just odd and overkill in my opinion. The whole point of having a short stage is so to entice riders into going full gas one day and completely shake up the order of a race. Having more than one in a row means that a rider might be concerned the following stage could be that day so they won’t want to waste their reserves on the wrong day and completely blow up when the action happens. It could, rather ironically, lead to more boring racing if everyone expects a GC raid kind of day and instead just rides defensively.

One of the reasons cycling is so interesting to follow in my opinion is the wide variety of stage you can get, but these short days are all “samey”. I’m a fan of them occasionally, but just not this much!

Prediction

The birthday boy to win. Allez Guillaume! (for the second time this race)

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Betting

1pt GMartin @ 25/1

0.5pt Gallopin @ 125/1

0.5pt Valgren @ 100/1

0.5pt Teuns @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? How will the stage pan out? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Critérium du Dauphiné 2017 Stage 6 Preview; Villars-les-Dombes -> La Motte-Servolex

Today’s Recap

I have to admit that I didn’t see today’s stage so this section will be brief…

The peloton finally decided to work together to catch the break, although from reading online reports it was in the balance for a while. Nonetheless, everything came down to a large bunch sprint and it was the blog’s pick for stage 3 who came good; Phil Bauhaus. A couple of days late but it’s good to see the young German taking his first (of many?) World Tour win.

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Démare continued his good run of form with a second place, with Coquard rounding out the podium.

The attention now switches to the GC riders and climbers of the peloton as we come to the business end of this race tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A relatively easy day out in the saddle to start off with before the riders have to tackle one of the hardest climbs in France!

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We could see a tough fight to get into the morning break along the flatlands at the start of the stage, or it could go from the gun. It’s one of those days! The first test for the peloton will be the Cat-3 Côte de Corlier but it won’t really have any impact on the stage. The road then rolls a bit, going through the feed-zone before the peloton can stretch their climbing legs/get warmed up again on the Côte de Jongieux. At 3.3km long and averaging 5% it’s not tough. However, considering there are only 5.5km from the summit to the bottom of Mont du Chat, then I expect it to be attacked at a fast pace as the GC riders look to position themselves before the monster of a climb. Speaking of which…

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It starts off with an “easy” kilometre of 7.5%, before never dipping below 9% for the rest of the climb. My legs hurt just looking at the profile!

We have max gradients of 15%, but I think it will be the 6th and 7th kilometres where the damage will be done. For those two kilometres it averages 12% and a lot of time can be made here if you’re stronger than your rivals, before it “eases” back down to 9.5% in the final kilometre of the climb.

Once over the top the riders will plunge down the other side on a descent that starts off quite technical, before getting easier around 2/3rds down the climb. The final few kilometres are almost pan flat as we head into the finish town.

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Will this scupper the chances of a solo rider taking the win?

If we do get a small group arriving together at the finish, taking the quicker inside line will be important!

How will the race pan out?

There is a chance the breakaway wins, but I think that’s unlikely considering the GC teams will be fighting for position a lot during the day. Furthermore, with bonus seconds on the line, they will want to give themselves as big a chance as possible of beating Porte in the overall.

Therefore, we’ll see a big GC battle on Mont du Chat with all the favourites coming to the fore!

Contenders

Valverde – On a stage with a descent almost all the way to the finish line but with a flat final 2km, the imperious Spaniard probably has to start as favourite. If he can hold onto the better climbers, he could potentially drop them on the descent or at least out-sprint them at the finish. Saying that, the way Valverde has been climbing this year, it would not surprise me to see him attack everyone on the climb. A strong TT is an indication that he is still in very good form just now!

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Contador – Similar to Valverde, El Pistolero delivered a better than expected TT which highlights that he is going well despite saying that he isn’t too bothered about how he does at the Dauphiné. It’s almost guaranteed that he will attack on the climb, but will it be enough for him to get away? If not, he’ll have to play it cannily as they approach the line as he doesn’t have the best sprint…

Froome – Relatively disappointing in the TT, the Brit has had a “poor” season by his standards so far. Maybe he didn’t want to give it his all in the TT, bluff a bit and not take any risks? But on a course that wasn’t too technical, I think that the power just wasn’t there. I could be wrong though and he could well turn it around. I think he doesn’t care for this race too much and it’s all about the Tour for him!

Porte – GC rider of the season, he blitzed everyone on a relatively flat TT so for him, the power is clearly there. Ridiculously impressive on short 15 minute climbs, I’m intrigued to see if he can sustain the Watts per Kg for a longer effort. He managed that in Paris-Nice and with the way he is riding just now, I can see him doing it again.

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@ammattipyoraily

Obviously those who struggled in the TT might have a chance of stage glory due to being further down on GC and not an immediate threat.

Bardet – A demon descender the Frenchman will not hold anything back on the downhill sections. He’s also not afraid to attack on the uphill and I think we’ll see him try to go early.

Martin, Yates and Aru could also find themself in a similar position!

Prediction

Originally I thought this stage would be great for someone like Bardet. My mind then switched to Valverde. But the more I think about it, the more I think we’ll see Porte ride away from everyone on Mont du Chat and cement his winning position in this race. He has been truly incredible this season, his power output has been amazing. He just needs to stay upright on the descent because I think we could see him crest the summit of the climb with a 30 second advantage.

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Betting

2pts WIN Porte @ 11/2 with Bet365

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will a “lesser” GC rider manage to escape or will it be ont of the leading contenders? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.