Tag: bibby

HSBC UK National Road Race Championships 2017 Preview; Douglas -> Douglas

After an “easy” route last year which saw two relatively large bunch sprints, with Blythe and Barnes being crowned champions, the organisers have certainly came up with a grippier parcours this time round.

2016 British Cycling National Road Championships - Stockton-on-Tees

Will the reigning champions be able to defend their crowns? Let’s have a proper look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

All profiles are courtesy of @LasterketaBurua / @raffilpt so go and give them a follow or check out their site!

The men’s race will incorporate two laps of the large circuit and 10 of the smaller circuit, totalling 193km. Whereas the women will only do one lap of the large circuit and 6 of the smaller one, totalling 103km.

You can view an interactive route profile here.

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As you can see, the main focal point of the opening circuit is the tough climb of ‘Mountain Mile” that averages 7% for 4.8km. Tough enough to see riders get dropped early on, it will be interesting to see how whittled down the group gets here and if we see any early attacks from the big hitters.

Compared to the opening loop and Mountain Mile, the closing circuit is fairly benign. However, the repeated nature of it and aggressive racing will certainly wear the riders down!

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The gradients are fairly shallow but there are some steeper pitches involved with some percentages of around ~8% in places. In fact, the second climb on the image above is closer to 8% for 400m but it flattens out at the top to bring the percentage down.

With only just over 2km from the top of the climb to the finish, those lacking a sprint will certainly be looking to make their move here.

Weather Watch

Along with the course, one thing that could shape the race is the weather. It looks as if the riders will have a dry day, but it is the wind that they will be more concerned about.

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Source: Met Office

With consistent winds of roughly 13mph (20kph) and gusts up to 24mph (38kph) the riders could certainly be caught out by crosswinds, especially on the larger opening circuit.

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Areas like the one above (just after Mountain Mile) are certainly exposed to the wind and it could potentially but the riders on the gutter on the left hand side of the road as the wind will be coming from their right.

However, it should only be the opening circuit that sees any echelon/crosswind action because the majority of the finishing laps are protected by trees and hedgerows.

Women’s Race

Given current form it is hard to argue against current champion Hannah Barnes regaining her title. Very strong in the TT on Thursday, she was incredibly consistent at the recent Women’s Tour and seems to have taken another step up again this year. She can climb, she’s strong on the flat and she can sprint. Ideal for this course! Will all of this racing catch up with her though?

Lizzie Deignan took a much more considered approach to the Women’s Tour but she will certainly be ready for this race. Having won a tough Tour de Yorkshire with a dominant ride, the 3-time National Champion will be looking to take home here 4th jersey here. Like Barnes, she can do everything and is the rider everyone will fear the most even though she has been a bit anonymous recently.

Women's Tour de Yorkshire 2017

Still an U-23 rider Hannah’s sister, Alice Barnes, could possibly compete here as well. The climb of Mountain Mile will be difficult for her but if she makes it to the final circuit with the lead group then she has as good a chance as any. Arguably a faster sprinter than her sister, can she win family bragging rights and more this time around?

After a solid third place in the TT, Katie Archibald will be looking for another strong performance in the road race. The Scot has really impressed me this season so far as she transitions from a track rider into a very versatile “roadie”. She won’t be dropped on the climbs but it her may be her inexperience in the wind that could be her undoing.

Dani King for a while looked as if she was going to hold on to the coat-tails of the flying Boels duo at the Tour de Yorkshire but it wasn’t to be.I’m still confused as to why she didn’t make the Olympic squad last year but that’s a debate for another day. A very consistent rider, she had a quiet Women’s Tour but still managed to finish 9th on GC, not bad! After being a loyal domestique for a few years, learning the trade, she moved teams during the winter to take more leadership opportunities. No better place to take your first pro win than at Nationals!

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Others who could be in contention include; Simmonds, Garner, Barker and Christian.

Men’s Race

There are two strong favourites for this course in my opinion and they were 1-2 on Alpe d’Huez not too long ago…

Pete Kennaugh will be looking to make history this year by being the first male rider to win the road race three times. A great one-day racer for this type of parcours, I’m sure he’ll be bitterly disappointed about missing out on the Tour squad. With that in mind, he will no doubt be going all out to win here. Will the local support be enough to see him win?

Ben Swift performed exceptionally well to come second behind Kennaugh on Alpe d’Huez, only losing ~15 seconds in the end. An under-rated climber, he should be able to cope with everything that he will face tomorrow. With a fast sprint as well, he is a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be out-numbered by other teams but that might not matter if he’s able to follow the best in an attacking race. The one issue is that no one will really want to bring him to the line.

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The same can be said for a recovering Mark Cavendish. The Manxman would have been relishing the opportunity to race for the national title on home roads but he has only just returned to racing after missing a large chunk of the season with Epstein Barr virus. He notched up a second place on a stage at the Tour of Slovenia and with the Tour de France around the corner, I have a feeling he’ll be going better than he says he is. He might not even show it tomorrow, but a hard race will do him good before next week.

 

Kennaugh isn’t Sky’s only option, Tao Geoghegan Hart is another candidate. The youngster produced a very solid time trial on Thursday, a discipline that’s not his strong point. He clearly is in good form and we could see Sky adopt some attacking tactics, using Geoghegan Hart to go in an early move that might just stick.

In a race that could become very open due to the attacking nature of it and the wind conditions there are several Continental riders who could have a chance.

Bibby (JLT), Holmes (Madison Genesis) and Williams (One Pro) are all riders to consider.

There is one rider I am going to keep a watchful eye on though and that is Scott Davies of Team Wiggins.

Scott-Davies

He won the U-23 TT on Thursday. More importantly, he was very impressive at the recent Baby Giro, finishing that race 4th on GC. Flying at the moment, he may take advantage of still being a “lower-level” rider and surprise a few tomorrow. The way he’s been riding, he shouldn’t be dropped on the climbs, that’s for sure!

Prediction

I’ll go for Hannah Barnes and Kennaugh wins, but with Davies to podium too!

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Betting

No women’s odds yet, but SkyBet might have something tomorrow. They had TT odds on the day of the event. As for the men…

Not much value in Kennaugh, but I’m willing to double him up with Aru in what is a hilly Italian course.

Kennaugh/Aru 1pt EW Double @ 65/1 with Bet365

Also backing…

Davies 0.5pt EW @ 50/1 with Bet365.

 

Thanks as always for reading, and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win the races tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Yorkshire 2017 Stage 2 Preview; Tadcaster -> Harrogate

Today’s Recap

That was hectic!

The peloton split over the final categorised climb of the day but things regrouped and we ended the day with a fairly large sprint. However, it wasn’t a simple sprint as the pace at the front of the peloton slowed, riders bunched up and things got messy. Unfortunately there was a fairly large crash that took out a lot of riders.

Nonetheless, it was Groenewegen who came from far back to take the win. Managing to weave his way around his opponents and still have enough to hold off a charging Ewan who finished no more than half a wheel behind.

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A very honourable mention to third place finisher Opie who managed to avoid all the carnage and finish comfortably ahead of the likes of Bouhanni etc.

Will we see a similar finish tomorrow but without the carnage? Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

An easier day in the saddle and a stage that should come down to a bunch sprint.

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There are some rolling, uncategorised climbs in the second half of the day, but nothing that should be too difficult for the bunch…

Saying that, the final 12km on the profile looked “interesting” so once again I’ve made a Strava profile of said ending! You can view that here.

Turns out the finale isn’t as easy as I had originally thought.

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The climb once they leave Birstwith is 1km long and averages roughly 5.8%. Not severe, but its proximity to the finish means the riders will be going full pace and it will certainly sap the legs of the sprinters.

Likewise, the following climb of Greyston Plain Lane is 2.1km at 3.9%. Even easier gradients this time but double the length. They won’t have had much respite after the Birstwith climb because it’s straight off the steep descent and back up the road again.Screen Shot 2017-04-28 at 11.22.02

Once over Greyston Plain Lane, there is a shallow descent all the way until just over 2km to go. It’s at the 2km to go banner that they’ll take a right hand turn at a roundabout, before the drag to the line.

This finish was used back in the opening stage of the 2014 Tour, except the riders came directly from the North side of the roundabout.

From that point though, the run in to the finish is identical.

As for the severity of the ramps themselves, I would actually believe the Strava profile more than the closing 5km from the road book. We have a 500m section at 6.8% followed by a swift 300-400m descent which allows the riders to gather up some speed before the final kick up to the line and false flat finish (500m at roughly 3%).

How will the stage pan out?

It should be a sprint stage, don’t get me wrong, but that closing 12km could certainly spring a surprise or two.

The equivalent run in to the 2014 Tour stage wasn’t as difficult so I’m intrigued to see what difference the slightly grippier terrain makes.

It is also important to consider that the riders in 2014 were in peak fitness for the Tour, at this race, there is a high chance quite a few of them won’t be and that drag to the line might be harder than they expect.

I think it will be tough for anyone to make a move on the climb out of Birstwith or on Greyston Plain Lane but I do think some more attacking riders will try something on the run in to the line.

Will the WT sprinters teams be able to hold it together? After today’s sprint it is clear Ewan and Groenewegen are the fastest, although I’m not sure Bouhanni would agree after being dumped at the front too early. Nonetheless, Jumbo and Orica will be the teams shouldered with doing most of the pace making and chasing throughout the stage which will tire their lead-outs and ability to close down attacks at the end.

We saw that Voeckler was sprightly on the run-in today and it would not surprise me to see him try something again tomorrow.

Sprinters?

Tomorrow’s sprint is more difficult than today’s but you would still expect the same riders to be involved.

Ewan likes an uphill drag to the line as was shown in his first ever GT win back in the 2015 Vuelta. Can he repeat that here?

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Groenewegen not so much and he was distanced on the last climb of the day today (along with Ewan), he might struggle a little bit.

Conversely. Bouhanni will be annoyed after dropping the two aforementioned guys on the Robin Hood’s Bay climb that he could not win the sprint. I think we’ll see him come out fighting tomorrow and he has a good chance of taking the win.

Sbaragli did well to avoid the crash and the drag up to the line tomorrow suits him more than a pure flat sprint. Podium chances.

Likewise my two picks for today’s stage Planckaert and Kragh Andersen both did well to avoid the crash but a tougher sprint is better news for them. I would expect them to finish higher than their 9th and 13th places today respectively.

Late attackers?

This was a stage I wanted to mark down for Ian Bibby. The JLT rider recently won the third round of the Spring Cup Series on a tough course and this explosive finish looks ideal for him. Unfortunately he was involved in today’s crash but seems to be okay…

Mauro Finetto.

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I mentioned the Italian as a possible animator of the race today but the stage wasn’t approached as aggressively as I had hoped for from the peloton. Delko were very attentive near the front of the bunch today and Finetto possesses a fast enough kick to surprise in a tricky sprint. Furthermore, he is explosive enough to get a gap from the group if he attacks. Can he maintain it all the way to the line though?

Prediction

It should be a sprint but there will be a few surprise names. After his disappointment today, Bouhanni won’t make that same mistake tomorrow. Bou-Bou to trounce home! He’s grossly under-rated as a climbing sprinter and he’ll prove some people wrong tomorrow.

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Betting

1.5pt WIN Bouhanni @ 4/1 (all 365)

0.25pt EW Bibby @

0.25pt EW Finetto @ 300/1

Bibby not priced so…

0.25pt EW Kragh Andersen @ 100/1

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

 

Tour de Yorkshire 2017 Stage 1 Preview; Bridlington -> Scarborough

Tour de Yorkshire 2017 Stage 1 Preview; Bridlington -> Scarborough

GC Overview

Like I thought might be the case, I don’t have enough time for a full GC write-up so here are some quick thoughts…

More than likely the GC will come down to the very tough final day. However, there is a small chance tomorrow’s stage will have an effect if it’s anything like stage 1 from the first edition of the race.

Nonetheless, it should be a classics type rider who does well on the final day. With the potentially windy conditions over the moors, it won’t only be the climbs that can cause splits in the bunch, but there is a good chance we’ll see some echelons too.

Having a strong team will be important and Dimension Data look to have arguably the best here. They have several handy climbers who should be there or thereabouts at the end, it just depends on who will be their leader, local rider Scott Thwaites maybe?

Team Sky have strong riders in Rowe and Stannard, but I would imagine that Geoghegan Hart is their best option due to the amount of climbing in the finale. The two aforementioned riders will be there to position him well and it will be over to the young Brit to deliver.

The defending champion and always gurning Voekcler is here again and he is sure to animate the race but I can’t see him winning the overall this time round.

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UK Continental riders such as Thomas Stewart and Ian Bibby are two other names to keep an eye on over the coming days with a top 10 a very good possibility for them both.

There are a few other riders I have in mind, but I shall keep my cards close to my chest so to speak and save them for the Stage 3 preview. 😜

As for now, I’ll go with a Geoghegan Hart win, but that is subject to change!

Grand Piemonte

Right, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders on the opening day of racing.

The Route

An interesting day out in the saddle, with the now traditional finish into Scarborough.

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I say interesting, because it is similar to the first stage we had in 2015 where the peloton was torn to bits by the climbs. This year’s run in is easier but is still fairly demanding.

I was hoping for something similar to that first edition but according to some Yorkshire natives (@gizza_tips and @BearTowell) it’s unlikely that we’ll see that!

Out of intrigue though, I have still made a Strava profile of the last 75km that you can view here.

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The peloton has a lot of rolling climbs to contend with such as my new favourite Strava segment, “To the ice cream van!” which is the 12km, 2% average climb out of Pickering.

We then of course get the 1.3km, 9.7% climb of Goathland. Well, it’s actually ever so slightly longer than the official profile suggests and is actually 2.1km long at 6.8%.

Once over the summit, there is a very fast descent into Sleights, before the peloton start climbing again after they are through Whitby.

Another gradual rise for the peloton to get over, 7.1km at 2.3%, which they then quickly descend off before the sharp kick up of Robin Hood’s Bay.

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1.5km in length and averaging close to 10.5% (although the Strava segment is closer to 11%), riders certainly can get dropped on the climb and lose a fair bit of time. If the best climbers in the peloton attack it then they should manage the ascent in roughly 5 minutes.

We won’t see any echelon action on the moors on Friday though unfortunately as the wind is mostly a tailwind on the run in to Scarborough.

Screen Shot 2017-04-27 at 11.52.24
Source: Windfinder

Will that help those dropped get back in to the bunch, or will it help a stronger peloton stay away over the closing 25kms? It will be frantic either way!

Once into Scarborough, the riders will have to negotiate a fairly technical final 5km, although from 2km to home it is easy.

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One thing the riders will have to consider is that the tailwind they had coming into Scarborough will now be a headwind for the final few hundred metres. You won’t want to open up your sprint too early!

How will the stage pan out?

It really depends on who and who doesn’t make it over Robin Hoods Bay in contact with the bunch and how aggressively the peloton attacks the climb itself. Considering the up and down nature of the race before it, the bunch could already be tired if the pace has been on for a while.

We could see some of the GC favourites and strong teams light it up, putting the sprinters in difficulty. Yet, as it has been pointed out to me, it’s the first day of the race and you would expect them to have fresh enough legs to cope with a 5 minute effort.

I think I live in hope more than anything else!

The most likely scenario is that we see a reduced sprint in Scarborough, of maybe 30-40 riders.

Contenders

Which sprinters make it to the line; that’s the proverbial million dollar question.

Bouhanni was climbing well in Catalunya and has maintained some solid form since then, with a third in Scheldeprijs and a win in Paris-Camembert. He’s not raced for a fortnight though so he’s a bit of an enigma in that sense. If he makes it over, then he’ll be the fastest rider there.

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Or is he? I’m sure fans of Ewan and Groenewegen would disagree!

The Aussie pocket rocket was flying at the start of the season but he’s not raced since his 101st in Gent Wevelgem. It’s hard to know where is form is because of that but in theory his diminutive stature should help him get over the climbs. If he’s close to where he was in January then he’ll be a threat. If not, team-mate Magnus Cort will be their sprinter.

Still without a win this season, the Dutchman will be hoping to turn that around here. Very fast on his day, he’ll be able to rely on a strong team to help lead him out. That is if they make it in the peloton together!

Some other riders that could get involved are Van Poppel, Blythe, Lawless and Sanz.

There are two outside sprinters I’d like to mention.

Søren Kragh Andersen may be second choice on paper out of the Sunweb team, but I would fancy his chances of getting over the final climbs compared to his team-mate Bauhaus. I’d wrote that before the teams were finalised but it seems Bauhaus isn’t riding so it’s just SKA. Packing a solid sprint after a tough day, in this type of field he could surprise.

Soren-Kragh-Andersen

Lastly, I think Baptiste Planckaert deserves a very worthy mention. The Belgian rider has settled in well at World Tour level, nabbing a few top 10 results for his new team Katusha. Much more than a fast sprinter, this type of stage looks ideal for him and I think he has a very good chance at a podium.

If we do get that attacking day I’m hoping for then look to the likes of Finetto, Bibby, Stewart, Weening and Hivert to animate the race.

Prediction

I really want to call this as an attacking day, but I’ll be sensible for once and go for a reduced bunch sprint of around 40 riders.

I’ll not be sensible with the following though…

A few of the bigger names will miss out and that will give an opportunity for someone else to step into the limelight. Planckaert to win!

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Betting

No GC bet so just stage 1 picks;

0.5pt EW Planckaert @ 22/1 with Bet365

0.5pt EW Kragh Andersen @40/1 with Bet365

Oh so tempted with the 66/1 on offer for Finetto if the race does break up, but I think I’ll leave it with the two “sprinters”!

 

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. How do you think tomorrow’s stage will pan out and who will eventually be the winner? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.