Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 3 Preview: Mancha Real -> La Guardia de Jaén (ITT)

Today’s Recap

A pretty benign day and a peloton that was actually pretty well controlled despite the rolling parcours in the finale. Mitchelton Scott were well rewarded for all of their work they did throughout the day, with Matteo Trentin taking the win.

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He didn’t have it easy though, just pipping Van Poppel and Garcia in a photo finish. He’ll be taking it easy tomorrow though as all eyes turn to the GC contenders. Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

It wouldn’t be a Spanish stage race without a tricky TT, now would it?

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As per usual for the race of truth, I’ve made my own Strava/Veloviewer profile of the complete course that you can view here.

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The afternoon can really be split up into three parts with the opening being the first 6 kms and the drag out of Mancha Real.

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After leaving the start gate the riders descend for 800m before they start the 5.5km (at 3.6%) drag upwards. However, those figures don’t tell the whole story and as you can see on the profile, the drag goes up in steps, with the final 1.5 km being a proper climb. That section itself averages 7.6% but over half of that is at 9%. Certainly not ideal on a TT rig but it’s something the riders will have to get over!

From there, the next 7 kms are all downhill at quite a steep negative gradient (-6 % average), so it will no doubt be incredibly fast.

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The danger here for the riders are the couple of technical and sharp turns that they face near the start of the descent, but in particular the two greater than 90-degree corners that they are greeted with on the outskirts of Pegalajar.

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Here’s hoping everyone takes them safely! There is roughly another 1km of very shallow descending, before the riders cross the river and face the final climb of the day to the finish line.

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At 1.8 km in length and averaging 8.4%, the organisers do sure know how to make a fun end to the day. Although I’m not entirely sure some of the riders will agree with that sentiment. The climb is tough and long enough for those that have got their pacing strategy wrong to blow up a little and lose quite a bit of time.

Contenders

Ion Izagirre.

The clear favourite for the day given his performance in the opening TT in Valenciana. Izagirre is very competent against the clock and with his ability not only on the climbs but also on the descents, you’d be hard pressed to find someone to back against him tomorrow. Astana are flying at the moment and after a strong performance on the opening day they still have 3, potentially 4, riders in contention for the overall. They’ll all be going full gas and they could well get a couple on the podium in the TT.

Tim Wellens.

Clearly going well after his win on the opening day, he seems to have fully recovered from his illness a few weeks ago. Wellens has been working a lot on his TT bike over the winter and is looking forward to getting his first outing on it here just to see where that has gotten him. Last year he took an 8th place on a rolling course so he will expect a similar result here. Not known as a TT rider by nature but one that is improving, given his early season form then he must be considered a threat for the day.

Pello Bilbao.

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Astana option number 2, Bilbao is an old blog favourite since his Caja Rural days and it is good to see him really improving each year at the World Tour level. He’s another rider that has steadily worked on his TT with a solid 7th place in the opener in Valenciana. On the first stage here, he was doing a lot of work for his team-mates but still managed to finish in the top 10. Clearly he’s in great shape and might just be the sleeper rider for the day.

Jakob Fuglsang.

Astana option number 3. Having only started his season in Murcia, the Dane has found his legs pretty quickly and was the first man home after Wellens on the opening day here. A very hot or cold TT rider, you can never really know what to expect from Fuglsang until he gets onto the TT rig. If on a good day, he could compete against the field here.

Steven Kruijswijk.

One of the consistent GC TT riders who delivers solid results with the very occasional brilliant performance. He’ll hope to be in or around the top 5 but it will take one of those special efforts for him to win. In fact, it is surprising to see that for a rider so consistent he has only 2 professional victories to his name.

Prediction

Another Astana win, with Izagirre taking the day.

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Wellens and Bilbao to finish on the podium as well, but not sure what order!

Betting

No bet, at the moment.

Wanted to back Bilbao for top 3 but that’s currently not possible or back him against someone in a H2H as long as it wasn’t Wellens or Izagirre. Will have a proper look at the other H2Hs available now and maybe see what the other books offer later on.

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and why? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

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Vuelta a Andalucia 2019 Stage 2 Preview: Sevilla -> Torredonjimeno

Today’s Recap

Despite Astana and Bahrain’s best efforts to try to split things up a little before the final climb, we had a pretty large peloton arrive at the foot of the ascent. Movistar took it up early and things quickly thinned out, however, no one really wanted to go full gas from the bottom like they did last year. Possibly knowing just how brutal the climb they decided it was better to save something. Astana then put in a little dig on the false flat descent but it was Tim Wellens who took the corner I highlighted in the preview yesterday, exactly the same way he did back in 2018. Carrying some momentum through it and onto the steep finish, he sat in the saddle and powered away from everyone as they struggled to hold his wheel. A dominant performance and a good one to beat Astana and the illness he faced a week or so ago!

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Astana will be happy with their current position though with Fuglsang and Izagirre taking 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Disappointed with blog pick Yates, who looked as if he was being brought up by his team-mates but then lost the wheel with around one kilometre to go until the start of the climb. From there he began the ascent in about 50th place and was never going to come back after that. He might not have won against Wellens, but we’ll never know!

Oh well, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A long day in the saddle which sees the road rise steadily up; will the sprinters be able to hang on?

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With nothing overly difficult in the opening 185 km of the stage, the main battle will take place over the final 25 – 30 km.

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The only classified climb of the day crests with about 24.5 km to go and given it’s 4.6% average for just over 4 km – it isn’t exactly the toughest ascent in the world either. However, it definitely could be used to put the peloton under a little pressure, especially if those eyeing up stage victory later on want to make things more difficult. After a short descent, the riders face the final 20 km which are all ever so slightly uphill, averaging 1.5%.

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The day will be decided (obviously) in the final 5.6 km.

With an “opening” climb of 2 km at 4%, followed by 1.6 km of flat, then a 2 km climb at 3%: there are opportunities for the finesseurs of the bunch to try to nab a win.

How will the stage pan out?

With some time gaps after today’s stage and no bonus seconds on the line, it could actually be a day for the breakaway. However, I don’t think that will happen as there should be enough interest behind from teams wanting a stage win to close things down.

Will it be controlled all the way to the line though?

With no pure sprinters here as such, the likes of Trentin and Van Poppel will be hopeful of sticking with the bunch and being the fastest riders left. Yet, it will be a tough ask for teams to keep things in check as I think plenty will fancy their chances of attacking in the finale and spoiling the party. The classics riders and puncheurs will be licking their lips at the prospect of the drags in the closing 5km.

Consequently, I think we might see a small group get away near the end of the day, who battle it out for a stage win. Or even a solo rider who times their attack perfectly as everyone else looks at each other.

Riders to look out for include Prades, Gavazzi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Canola and of course the aforementioned Trentin and Van Poppel.

However, I don’t think any of them will win, instead…

Prediction

A blog favourite will be raising his hand come the end of the day and that man will be Matej Mohoric.

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I was very impressed to see Mohoric grinding his way up the climb today, slowly picking off riders ahead of him and ending up in 11th place. He’s a rider that keeps improving year on year, especially now that he is fully focussed on his cycling after finishing his studies. We saw that come to fruition last year with what was a breakthrough year and I expect him to match that this season with some very strong performances in the classics. The slightly tricky finish looks perfect for him to launch a doozy of an attack in the closing kilometres and with a bit of confusion and lack of co-operation behind it will be very difficult to bring him back. Mohoric does also have the advantage of packing a pretty handy sprint in a stage like this so he might just wait but that isn’t his nature. All or nothing for Matej!

Betting

1pt EW Mohoric @ 25/1 with Bet365

Thanks as always for reading the preview and apologies it is slightly more stumped than normal; I’m a bit under the weather and trying to write two previews a day takes a little time. It’ll probably the same tomorrow as I’m heading home for the weekend so will be spending a bit of my time travelling. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.