Category: Uncategorized

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 14 Preview: Cistierna -> Les Praeres. Nava

Today’s Recap

“Who?” every reporter asks as they rush onto ProCyclingStats to find out a tidbit of information about today’s winner, Óscar Rodríguez.

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Turns out he has done okay in a few Portuguese races this season, finishing 20th overall at La Grandissima, meaning a second placed finish in the young rider’s classification. Aside from that, nothing much. Today definitely marks a breakthrough performance! It was so impressive that he was only 27 seconds slower on the La Camperona climb than best GC rider Quintana.

Favourite from the break Majka came home second on the day and gave a bemused interview post-stage, while Teuns held on to third, denying a late charging Lambrecht.

As mentioned above, Quintana was comfortable and took some time out of his rivals but Yates matched him pedal stroke for pedal stroke until the final 150m. Lopez did well to recover from a mechanical, not losing too much time and gaining some on others. Mas and De La Cruz seem to be timing their peak well and riding into the race. The biggest GC loser on the day was George Bennett who lost 1’46 to Quintana.

However, Herrada held on finishing just behind Bennett so he still leads the race going into another summit finish tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

More of a sawtooth profile than today’s affair, we are also treated to a brand new finish climb.

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We could see the break form on the early unclassified ascent that peaks after only 8km, if not, there will be a tough fight for the following 40kms, possibly more. An easy Cat-3 climb leads the riders into a long descent through the feedzone before the steep Alto de la Colladona (5.4km at 7.5%) awaits.

The Alto de la Mozqueta (10km at 6.3%) and the Alto de la Falla los Lobos (7.1km at 5.2%) follow in the next 60kms but given the 10kms of valley roads between the penultimate and last climb, I can’t see any GC action happening before the summit finish.

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Not much to say about the climb really, you just need to look at the gradients to see how tough it is – no kilometre drops under 10%!

How will the stage pan out?

We saw how keen many teams were to get in the break today and just how difficult the stage was to control for those behind. Tomorrow is another day that isn’t too bad to keep check of things in theory but the Vuelta often doesn’t go by the book. I think it is clear after today that the only teams who might chase down the break are Movistar, Astana and Mitchelton. Well, and Cofidis I suppose but they don’t have the firepower to do anything on their own here.

Mitchelton provided a little help today but as they were so keen to get rid of the jersey the other day, I think they will prefer to let the other two teams tire themselves out. Both Astana and Movistar were the most active in chasing the break back today but they left it too late if they were hoping for a stage win. Will they make the same mistake tomorrow or will they just let the break go and save their energy?

Possibly the latter, again, for like what seems the umpteenth day in a row!

TheBreakawayLottery

Break Candidates

Not going to bore you here because I myself am getting pretty bored of trying to come up with some new names but not straying too far from my set group. Names in a hat time.

Vincenzo Nibali – Getting back somewhere near where he should be, he’s been active and managed to get into the break the other day. Took it easy this afternoon, possibly saving himself for one of the coming stages.

Tao Geoghegan Hart – Same reasons as yesterday’s preview pretty much! Sky appear to be trying to get riders into the breaks and TGH is one of the nominated few. He’s made some that have been brought back but can he make one that sticks?

Mikel Bizkarra – Two in two for Euskadi Murias? The Spaniard climbed well today beating some strong climbers such as Bennett, Woods and Herrada. He could spring a surprise.

Igor Anton – Dimension Data now find themselves in second place in the team classification so I expect them to have numerous riders in the breaks over the coming stages. Anton was strong in Burgos but has been quiet this whole race. Is he saving himself?

Prediction

Breakaway wins again and I’ll go for Nibali.

Milano-Sanremo 2018 - edizione 109 - da Milano a Sanremo (294 km)

Betting

0.5pt WIN on them all

Nibali 50s, the rest are 80s.

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and why? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 13 Preview: Candás. Carreño -> Valle de Sabero. La Camperona

Today’s Recap

A big break went as I expected and with both Bora and Quick Step represented, it showed that Sagan and Viviani weren’t overly keen with another hard day on a finish they might not have made. I did question the possible success of the break early on though as Jesus Herrada made the split and he was only 5’45 down on GC before the start of the day. However, it seems Mitchelton have learnt from their Giro mistakes and they were more than happy to let the Cofidis rider take the jersey at the end of the day: an opportunity he gladly took. He wasn’t competing for the stage win though, as the large break splintered into two groups in the final 20km.

Instead it was a group of 8 out ahead who fought for the win. Attacks flew but no one was able to escape and after some riders were dropped it came down to a 5 rider sprint to the line. Geniez took a bit of a risk and went early at 300m out but given the narrow road and slight downhill, it turned out to be a perfect point to launch the sprint. Van Baarle came close but he ran out of road both in front of him and at the side as the barriers closed off any chance he had of getting round the Ag2R rider. Youngster Padun trailed home in third, not a bad result for his first Grand Tour.

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Kind of an annoying day for the blog as Campenaerts was in that group but finished fifth. However, I am very pleased of how accurate my “How will the race pan out?” predictions have been this whole race, even if the right riders aren’t represented. Watch me get it massively wrong for tomorrow now…

The Route

Only a shade more climbing than today but the profile looks completely different as we have a tough mountain top finish.

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The stage is pretty easy in some sense due to the lack of actual hills, the road drags than anything else for the opening 90km, albeit, there is a 3rd-Cat climb early on in the day. Just through the feed zone the peloton will tackle the Cat-1 climb of Puerto de Tama (11.7km at 6.1%). Given it’s position in the day and what comes after it, I expect it to be taken at a very casual pace indeed.

Following on from the summit, almost 60km of flat-ish roads await the riders and the cheekily placed intermediate sprint before the road starts climbing for the mountain finish of La Camperona.

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A 7.7km climb at 7.6% sounds fairly tough on its own but La Camperona is all about its ridiculously steep gradients within the closing 2kms. It isn’t also nicknamed the Wall of Camperona for nothing!

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A final 2.6km at 14.4% is just brutal. You don’t want to be giddy and go too early as if you fade late on then you can crack massively and lose a lot of time. Back in 2016 Quintana attacked at only 1km to go but still managed to gain 25 seconds on Contador and 33 seconds on Froome respectively. Will we see something similar from him tomorrow?

How will the stage pan out?

A day that is easy to control for the GC teams given the large amount of flat roads that break up the two main climbs. However, will anyone want to control it? Mitchelton showed today they were content enough to let the jersey go so I can’t imagine they will chip in now. None of the other GC teams have really turned a pedal in anger at the head of the bunch to chase anything down; they’ve only put the pressure on at the end of stages, i.e. EF Education First yesterday.

So the buck will lie with our race leader and his Cofidis team, and Movistar. The former don’t really have the horsepower to control things fully in my opinion but they would be a more than helpful ally to Movistar. The men in blue have taken control of most days even though they are not in the race lead – clearly confident of Quintana for the race. Yet, with two even harder stages this weekend, I think they might be happy to let Cofidis to the brunt of the work so that they can rest up.

Therefore, another day and another chance to play our favourite game…

TheBreakawayLottery

Breakaway Candidates

It’s a really weird stage to choose possible breakaway riders as the flatter opening 90kms are not ideal for the mountain goats to make the split. We could see a scenario very similar to what we had back in 2014, a day when the only climb was La Camperona, on which a break made up mainly of rouleurs fought out for the win. Of course, if one or two climbers to make the split then don’t expect everyone just to ride to the bottom of the climb with them.

Hmmmm. These guys will be outsiders but why not!

Jan Hirt.

I was very impressed with the Astana man on Stage 9 during the La Covatilla summit finish as he pushed the pace on for his leader Lopez. Despite having the Colombian fighting for the GC lead, Astana have been active in the break so far this race but they missed out today. Tomorrow they possibly might send someone up the road to work for Lopez later on but if the gap is too big then they could go for the stage themself. Hirt is a rider who likes the steep gradients so he will be a big fan of tomorrow’s finish climb. Can he rekindle that Giro 2017 form?

Franco Pellizotti.

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Now leading the Team Classification, Bahrain will be keen to get someone in the breakaway tomorrow. Nibali and Padun will be tired after their efforts today so that really leaves Gorka, Pernsteiner and the aforementioned Pellizotti. I was impressed with the veteran’s finish to the stage De Marchi won and if he had made the right move before he could have had a chance. He often turns up for one or two good stages in a Grand Tour where he is climbing with the best – is that tomorrow?

Merhawi Kudus.

It was the turn of the younger Eritrean climber in the Dimension Data team, albeit by only a few months, so I think we might see Kudus on the attack tomorrow. The steep ramps should suit his dimunitive figure. Does anyone else remember how strong he was back in 2017 on the steep slopes of Llucena in Valenciana? He will be a real threat if he makes the break but making the break will be his biggest challenge.

Tao Geoghegan Hart.

Sky have shown a different side to their armada over the past few days where they have actually had a rider up the road in the breakaway. Shocking, I know. Geoghegan Hart made one of the earlier splits that was unsuccessful the other day so he has clearly been given some freedom to chase a result now and again. One of the best performers at the Dauphiné earlier in the year, if he has the same legs tomorrow then he is one to watch.

Prediction

Dimension Data to continue their incredible Vuelta with Kudus winning the stage from a rather weird breakaway!

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Betting

0.5pt WIN on each of the breakers;

Hirt @ 300/1

Pellizotti @ 150/1

Kudus @ 100/1

TGH @ 150/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 12 Preview: Mondoñedo -> Faro de Estaca de Bares. Mañón

Today’s Recap

A manic day in the saddle where the race was 3km/h ahead of the fastest expected schedule. It took for over 80km for the break to form and when it did Pinot found himself up there along with 18 others. They were never given a lot of time with the gap hovering around the 3:30 mark for most of the day but they did have enough to fight out for the stage win.

It became a very tactical finish but a duo of De Marchi and Restrepo escaped with around 20km to go, and it was the BMC man who dropped his companion on the final unclassified climb, managing to ride solo to the line.

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Restrepo held on for second place while Pellizotti rounded out the podium.

Behind, the GC riders dropped pretty much everyone else on that final rise thanks to a strong pace from EF Education. However, they all arrived at the line together so no time loss. Well, apart from De La Cruz (7 seconds), Buchmann (8 seconds) and Aru (41 seconds) who all shipped a bit of time.

With today’s stupidly fast pace, I’m sure there will be several in the bunch hoping for an easier day tomorrow, so let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

Another day out with 3000m of climbing: that might not be music to the ears of plenty in the peloton after all.

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It doesn’t appear as difficult a stage because there aren’t as many big climbs, but the road is constantly up and down and will be very draining.

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Once the riders pass through the 50km to go banner there are no more categorised climbs, but that doesn’t mean the ascending stops. According to the Strava profile I’ve made, there is a total of 948m of elevation gain but that does seem a little on the heavy-handed side in my opinion. Something like 750m might be a bit more realistic.

The first of the small drags to contend with in that closing 50km is 2kms at 5.5% and starts with 40km to go. Some flat land then leads onto a 2.9km (6%) climb which has a just over a kilometre at 10%. A fast descent and more flat sees the riders into the last 20km of the day which can certainly be described as rolling.

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It is pretty much up or down all the way to the finish.

The three main rises can be classed as 2.4km at 4.5%, 2.7km at 5.5% and 4.1km at 2.3%. Throughout the first two of those climbs, there are several sections with steeper gradients and the hurt can be put on within the peloton. Once over the last drag, there are only 2.5km left in the day, all of which are pretty much downhill.

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A fast finish to the day and given the potential showers throughout the afternoon, it might be a sketchy run in. It is meant to be very windy throughout the stage too but it shouldn’t be an issue at the end of the day because of how sheltered the roads are. However, it might cause another frantic start to the stage with the riders travelling along the coast.

How will the stage pan out?

One of those days where we could feasibly see several outcomes, making it a tricky one to predict.

The finish looks good for Sagan and if the rumours are true, he might be heading home after tomorrow’s stage so going out on a win would be great. However, the stage could also be good for someone like Valverde if the climbs are rode aggressively in the last 20km in an attempt to detach the faster sprinters.

Tomorrow will either end up with the break winning, a reduced bunch sprint, or a late solo attack.

The climb at the start of the stage is a good opportunity for a strong group to go but the “easy” roads up to the half-way point of the afternoon could see them controlled. Yet, the second part of the stage is much more difficult for teams to keep a lid on things so they might just be happy to let some riders go. Another factor that lends itself to the break staying away is just how fast and crazy today was. There are plenty riders in the peloton who will have suffered and the GC teams will want to keep their domestiques fresh for the coming mountain days so they won’t chase. Instead, it will probably be up to the likes of Bora to try to hold things together if they want a Sagan stage win.

A reduced bunch sprint has a good chance of happening if we get one of this piss-poor breaks where three guys just roll off the front in the opening 2kms and everyone sits up. The peloton will easily be able to control them and bring them back slowly over the second half of the stage. However, it will then depend how aggressively things are raced as to just how reduced a bunch we get at the finish. I think a lot of the sprinters will struggle.

The late attack option can only happen if the break has been brought back, obviously. If we see a fast pace that gets rid of the sprinters, then it helps those wanting to attack as there will be fewer teams wanting to hold things together.

We might even see some crazy early echelon action if some teams want to push the pace on.

Hmmmmmm. I don’t really know, this is tough.

Break. I’ll go with the break so I guess it is that time again…

TheBreakawayLottery

I’ll keep this brief as I’m pretty much pulling names out of a hat.

Victor Campenaerts – Same reason as yesterday’s preview. He seems strong this race but hasn’t had the chance to shine for himself. Will want a hit out at some point over the coming stages before the TT.

Rohan Dennis – Think he is the only BMC not to be in the breakaway so far this Vuelta: will that change tomorrow? Like Campenaerts, I think he will want to open the taps up fully a few days before the TT. The rolling stage looks good for him tomorrow and he can certainly hold off a strong chase behind.

Steve Cummings – Meh, why not?*

*Please don’t actually tell me the numerous reasons why.

Laurens De Plus – One of the teams who might try to hold things together are Quick Step as they possibly might fancy Viviani’s chances of making the line. To counter the expected work they will have to do though then they could send someone up the road. De Plus was very active at the start of the day but paid for it at the end of the stage by losing time. Can he recover and go again? He has looked in great shape so far this race.

Lukas Pöstlberger – Like Quick Step, a lot of the workload will be left with Bora tomorrow. Sagan was dropped a few times today so maybe he was feeling the effects. If so, then attacking could be their best option for the stage. Pöstlberger made a few of the earlier moves but missed the ones later on but he could be the type of rider to attack tomorrow.

Prediction

Peloton will want another rest day so they will go easy, allowing the break to win. Dennis to take the stage!

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Betting

Small stakes on the break picks as I’m really unsure of how tomorrow pans out.

0.5pt WIN on…

Postlberger @ 56/1

Campenaerts @ 50/1

Cummings @ 100/1

0.25pt WIN On…

Dennis @ 300/1

De Plus @ 300/1

1.25pt EW On Valverde @ 25/1

Backing the latter in case of the reduced bunch sprint and Valverde going for the stage to take the red jersey.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 11 Preview: Mombuey -> Ribeira Sacra. Luintra

Today’s Recap

Viviani won.

Moving on…

Just kidding, it was a pretty dull day so it all came down to the expected big bunch sprint. Quick Step delivered one of the best lead-outs I’ve seen all season, dropping the Italian champion off in the perfect position at just over 150m to go. No one was coming round him after that.

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Sagan came home second and Nizzolo rounded out the podium in third. I think the rest of the sprinters and their teams got scared to take it up too early in case they ended up in a poor position. However, with everyone riding a phony tempo on the front of the bunch it just worked into Quick Step’s hands as they could save themselves and hit it fully from 2.5km out. If there was some disorganisation then some of the other sprinters might have had a chance. That’s a big might though…

Anyway, let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

The longest stage of the race at a tad under 208km, it is no easy day in the saddle for the riders though with 3700m of climbing throughout the afternoon.

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As you can see on the profile there are no real mountains as such, just several long hills with shallow 4-5% average gradients. To add to that, there are also numerous uncategorised kickers and drags throughout the afternoon: the road is barely ever flat!

We might see a Ruben Plaza 2015-style solo 114km attack from the break but considering I think that is unlikely, tomorrow will be decided by a tactical final 50km.

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The road rises through the intermediate sprint point before the road descends into an uncategorised 2.9km at 5.8%. We will then see the peloton tackle the last categorised climb of the day.

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As you can see, it isn’t an overly difficult climb and stays very consistent. It definitely suits the all-rounders better than the pure climbers so to speak. The road then descends for almost 12km, although it is very shallow in some parts with that 12km only averaging -2%.

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At around 5.6km to go, the riders will face the above uncategorised climb. It is steep and long enough for the puncheurs to try to make a difference but those hoping to grind their way up it will think the opposite. It really is a perfect climb for its position in the day. Given the almost 2kms at 7.8% though, I think it tips it in favour of the puncheurs.

With it cresting with just over 3km to go, will a rider be able to solo to the line, or will we see a slight regroupment?

Breakaway Day

No beating around the bush here, tomorrow is most definitely a day for a break in my opinion. With the constant rolling terrain throughout the afternoon, it will be nigh on impossible for a team to control a strong group ahead. Furthermore, it will take a lot of energy expenditure to even try that – not exactly what anyone wants to do with the more important GC days to come. Unless of course Mitchelton Scott haven’t learnt anything from the Giro and decide to close everything down just for the sake of it. I wouldn’t count that out actually now I think about it a little more…

Nonetheless, time to play everyone’s favourite game. Again.

TheBreakawayLottery

The Fruitless Four

Steve Cummings.

Yep, it’s finally that day. I’ve had this day marked down as possible Cummings territory from before this race and since he has done absolutely nothing so far in this race, then I’m equally both more and less confident in the pick at the same time. He has been pretty rubbish this season, even he has admitted that, but he would have had a stage win in Austria had it not been for a mechanical in the closing kilometres. The rolling terrain of tomorrow suits Cummings well and I would expect to see him attack the breakaway around the final categorised climb and try to hold on to the finish.

Victor Campenaerts.

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After the tricky finish on stage 7 I promised I’d back Campenaerts on a rolling breakaway and tomorrow is that. Obviously a strong rider on the flat, the Belgian can actually go well on the hills too due to his quite slight nature. Lotto Soudal have had a pretty poor Vuelta so far, marred by crashes, but a good result tomorrow would set them up nicely for the final week.

Tao Geoghegan Hart.

When was the last time Team Sky had a rider in the breakaway at a Grand Tour? It certainly seems a while ago, that’s for sure. However, with De La Cruz and Kwiatkowski not looking convincing in their GC tilt at the moment, Sky might change their approach. Geoghegan Hart has had an exceptional season so far, proving to be one of the stronger climbing domestiques in the peloton at races like Dauphine. If he’s at that same level again in the break, then there won’t be many there stronger than him.

Vincenzo Nibali.

Milano-Sanremo 2018 - edizione 109 - da Milano a Sanremo (294 km)

Nibali might just be that guy who is stronger than Geoghegan Hart. He tried to escape with Trentin earlier on in the race but was still deemed too close on GC to be given any leeway, that’s how much his competitors respect him. The Shark of Messina has been struggling with form since crashing out of the Tour but he looked a lot more sprightly after his rest day this afternoon and I think he’ll be eyeing up one of the stages over the coming days. Does he have the legs to deliver?

Prediction

Yup, I’m going there.

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Steve Cummings to win and save his season, continuing Dimension Data’s great Vuelta.

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see a break survive all the way to the end? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 10 Preview: Salamanca -> Fermoselle. Bermillo de Sayago

Rest-day recap

Return of the King? Is that the title we’re going with?

On stage 9 an okay break, not super strong but not bad, escaped early on and they were kept on a fairly tight leash by Groupama. However, the elastic eventually snapped with around 70km to go and they were given enough room to fight it out for the stage.

It then became tactical in the break before the final climb, with a duo of King and Mas escaping. King dropped Mas and his gap grew north of 1’30 before the start of the summit finish. Mollema tried his best to bridge across, getting the gap down to only 18 seconds at one point but he had spent too much and King was just too strong.

King held on for a rather remarkable second stage win of this Vuelta, which is definitely a surprise to most. Can he go better than Marczynski last year and take a third?

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Mollema trailed home for second with other early morning breakee Teuns just managing to take third ahead of some rampaging GC riders.

With over a third of the race complete, the battle for the overall is still wide open and the top 10 is covered by just 48 seconds. Plenty in with chances over the coming two weeks, it’s just about managing your form and timing that peak perfectly.

Anyway enough about that, let’s see what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A very odd-looking profile as the stage is pretty much as flat as you can get in Spain but because they descend before climbing again, it looks like there is a chunk out of the profile.

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Nothing much to talk about really aside from the Cat-3 that crests at 28km to go. However, the road continues to rise afterwards for 7.2km but it only averages a shade over 2%, so nothing too serious.

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I think we’ll see a sprint: so what is the run in like?

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Easy, really easy!

A slight meander at around 600m to go with is all they have to deal with pretty much: no roundabouts which is a bit surprising. That being said, there is a kink in the road with only 150m or so to go.

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Nothing serious but it is something to note. Coming around the short side will save you a fraction of the second and that could be all that matters. Also, the final few hundred metres rise at an average of 2% to the line, again, nothing crazy, but it means timing is more important.

If I’m honest, I’m not 100% sure that the above is the exact finish as in typical Vuelta fashion there are two different places in the road book. However, given that LaFlammeRouge and Erecce have the same finish point as above, I’ll go with that.

You can see a video of the run in above.

Sprinters

Do I really need to go through all of them again?

Viviani – Very strong when taking his win on stage 3 and he finished fast on the crosswind struck stage 6. However, both on that day and the uphill day where he *might* have had a chance, he was poorly positioned. Very unlike Quick Step that. They’ll need to sort that for tomorrow.

Sagan – Seems to be finding his form again but I think he is still not at 90%. If he was, then there was no way he was losing on Stage 8: he is getting there though. A master at positioning, expect to see him surf wheels given his short lead-out.

Bouhanni – Great to see him take the win earlier in the race. His team performed really well in that stage and that will give him more confidence in them. On his day Bouhanni can be really fast, it is just judging if it is his day or not!

Van Poppel – I was very impressed with his effort on stage 8, I didn’t expect him to finish third that day. What almost impressed me more though was just how well Lotto Jumbo bossed the closing few kilometres. If they can do that again tomorrow, then Van Poppel has a great chance.

Nizzolo – Another who got close on stage 8, he seems to be a nearly man so often. I would like to see him win a stage at a Grand Tour, it is what he deserves after being consistent over the years. I just can’t see it happening tomorrow though.

Consonni, Trentin, Sarreau and Garcia will be in or around the top 10. I wonder if Max “speed bump” Walscheid makes the finish?

Prediction

A simple finish can often be a chaotic and messy finish as everyone thinks they have a chance. We’ll see a big fight for position as riders surge forward and then back again as they run out of steam so luck will somewhat play a factor. A team will want to time their effort perfectly so that they can drop their sprinter off at just the right moment.

I’ll go with Lotto Jumbo to repeat their lead-out feat from stage 8 and put Van Poppel into an unbeatable position.

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Betting

Normally wouldn’t go EW on short sprint odds but given how close things have been so far between them all, I’ll take the “safety net” of a podium.

2pts EW Van Poppel @ 10/1 with William Hill who are actually paying 1/3 odds for 3 places. Would take the 9s or 8s available elsewhere though.

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think is going to win tomorrow? Apologies for this not being as in-depth as normal but there isn’t really much to talk about! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 9 Preview: Talavera de la Reina -> La Covatilla

Today’s Recap

Positioning, positioning, positioning. The key to today’s finish. Some had it, some did not.

Unfortunately for the blog, Viviani certainly did not as he was in around 30-40th wheel coming through the roundabout so was never involved. A bit annoying as Quick Step seemed keen to chase the break all day but they were swamped at the end from 5km out and never managed to get some space. Some can argue that he wouldn’t have been up there fighting for the win but given the composition of the top 10 and his current season, I still think he would have been there, but opinions are opinions and we all have them. One thing is for certain, that’s two “sprint” days now that Quick Step have been out of position; very unlike them!

Anyway, up ahead, Lotto Jumbo were pulling hard to set up Van Poppel but it was Garcia who hit out early, hoping to catch everyone by surprise. No one really hesitated though and all he ended up doing was just leading the rest of the bunch out. Sagan was the first of the big hitters to go and it looked for a while as if he was going to get the stage win, but Valverde came round him in the last 50m, rather comfortably, to take his second victory of the race.

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Van Poppel managed to hold on for third with a real smorgasbord of sprinters/puncheurs/GC riders filtered behind them. Can Valverde make it two in a row? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Last day of racing before the first rest day and we are treated to the first mountain top finish of the race. Yes, we’ve had some hill-top finishes so far, you could even class Sierra de la Alfaguara as a mountain, but none have been as difficult as what awaits tomorrow.

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Over 4000m of climbing throughout the day, this is our first big GC test. Combining that with the heat, then we could see several riders pop on the final climb. Don’t expect any GC action until then though.

The opening trio of climbs come too far out for any early movement and they will more than likely just be the platform for the breakaway to push on and try to gain some time before the second half of the stage.

In that second half, the road is constantly up and down, making a chase slightly more difficult than it would be otherwise. The final 24km of the day are all mainly uphill, with a 9km stretch at 3% before the riders reach the proper start of the La Covatilla climb.

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The last time the Vuelta used this finish was in 2011 when Dan Martin out-sprinted Bauke Mollema to the line, with the remaining GC riders coming in not too far behind them. As you can see on the profile above, the steepest gradients come early and if a few riders hit out here then things could blow to bits. If not, we might see a slow attritional process before gaps are made in the final 2kms as riders attack.

Rather annoyingly though, the current weather forecast projects that there will be a reasonably strong cross/headwind (15km/h) on the climb. It might just be enough to deter many attacks, which would be a shame.

Break or GC winner?

Who wants to hold this one together then?

I think Molard and Groupama will have enjoyed their past few days in red but know that their time is numbered so they are more than likely to forego expending any unnecessary energy tomorrow. Likewise, I can’t really see many of the GC squads wanting to contribute. Possibly we could see Mitchelton and Bora help a chase as both Yates and Buchmann have looked good so far.

However, the brunt of the work will once again be left to Movistar. They have a big chance of taking the red jersey tomorrow with Valverde and given the headwind, he has a good chance of winning a sprint between the GC riders.

Yet, it is a long day out in the saddle and having both Quintana and Valverde in contention for the overall at the moment, and needing a few domestiques for the climbs means that they will be running low on riders to pull. It will certainly be a tough task for Bennati, Erviti and Oliveira to keep a strong break in check!

So. Here. We. Go. Again.

TheBreakawayLottery

The Cursed Four

Dan Martin.

The Irishman has been slowly riding himself into this race, hoping to target some stage wins before he more than likely abandons for the birth of his children. Struggling on the opening days, he has said that his form has started to come around and tomorrow looks perfect for him. He’s won here before and I have a feeling that he will have this day circled.

Richie Porte.

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After an illness plagued the opening few stages of this race, Porte is well out of contention for the overall, although there is a debate around whether he was in with a shout pre-race or not. He found himself in the rather odd position of being in a three-man break on stage 6, blowing the cobwebs out. On his day, he is one of the best climbers in the world and if he makes the break there will be very few who can beat him – if he is somewhere back to full fitness. That is a big “if” though.

Bauke Mollema.

Quite unlucky to have had a mechanical when in the winning move on stage 5 as he looked strong enough to drop everyone on the climb. He’s rested the past few days with the intention of making the break tomorrow and giving it all for the stage win. Could we see a showdown between him and Dan Martin again?

Dani Moreno.

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Rolland is probably one of the designated breakaway riders for EF Education but I think Moreno will be given his chance at some point and he might be allowed to go for the move too and they will just see who gets there: someone does need to stay back and support Uran. As I mentioned the other day when nominating Moreno, he is in search of a contract for next year so needs some good performances. A stage win at the Vuelta would all but secure that. Can he roll back the years?

Prediction

No one wants to control the break on what is a long day and history repeats itself with Dan Martin winning atop La Covatilla.

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Betting

1.25pt WIN Martin @ 50/1

1pt WIN Mollema @ 33/1

0.75pt WIN Porte @ 80/1

0.5pt WIN Moreno @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think wins tomorrow? Will the break fight it out for the stage win or will it be the GC riders? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 8 Preview: Linares -> Almadén

Today’s Recap

An OK break made it up the road but Bora were more than happy to help Groupama FDJ keep tabs on it so they were never really given north of 3 minutes. Things spiced up on the penultimate climb with plenty of riders dropped, but it was the descent off of that climb that was the undoing of Kwiatkowski who went down along with two team-mates. With the pace on up ahead and the tough climb to come, he would never make it back on despite his and a few others best efforts.

In the peloton we saw numerous attacks from solo riders and groups, but it was Gallopin who went at the perfect moment. A small lull as the decision as to who would cahse was made ended up being enough for the Frenchman to get a big enough gap to take the stage win.

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It is a result that is nice to see given how much he has suffered from illness or injury this year.

Behind, Sagan sprinted to second place after keeping himself nicely hidden from the tv motorbikes in the final 10km. Seems he is building some form again as he definitely wouldn’t have made this finish a few weeks ago. Pre-stage favourite Valverde trailed home in third place.

Will tomorrow see a similarly aggressive and attacking finish to the day? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

I’m branding it as Stage 7 Lite.

The riders will face only 2100m of climbing compared to today’s 2500m.

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The ascents themselves are less intense too, with the only categorised rise of the day averaging a lowly 3.5% for almost 9km: that’s not the Vuelta I know! Even the finale is a bit of a rip-off of today’s finish.

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Admittedly, the ramps involved in those closing 6.5km are tougher than the steadier 2% drag to the line we had this afternoon but it still equates to pretty much the same finish: a 6km, just over 2% run to the line.

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The final kilometre averages 3%, but it does feature a few switchbacks on a narrow road so positioning will be vital. Expect a big fight for the penultimate turn off the main highway. Also, ignore the poor surface on the image above, that is taken from a 2008 Street View trip (if that’s the right word) but the road has since been done up with some swanky new asphalt.

How will the stage pan out?

With a big day ahead of them on Sunday, I think most will want to keep their powder dry. Despite the rolling hills at the start, it is fairly easy terrain therein for the peloton to control the breakaway. I think we’ll once again see Bora help with the chase and possibly a few of the other sprint teams so I don’t think the break has a very good chance at all tomorrow if I’m honest. It is the Vuelta though so you can never fully discount it.

The only way that it does have a chance is if we see a surprisingly large group of 8 or 9 go clear and everyone else decides not to work with Bora given that Sagan is looking strong again.

I think that is unlikely though, so an uphill sprint it is!

Can anyone stop Sagan?

I didn’t expect to be writing that a few days ago but given his performance today then I think it is a fair question. The run to the line tomorrow will be no issue for the World Champion if he continues to recover and he has to start as the out-and-out favourite for the day. His kick today was impressive and caught a few by surprise, let alone Valverde, who didn’t even realise he was in the main group.

Viviani – Can he make the finish? I think he will and he is the main threat to Sagan. It was only poor positioning that cost him a second stage win on Wednesday. He is punchy enough to deal with the drag and if he shows the same closing speed as he did the other day, then I think he has the beating of the World Champion.

Bouhanni – Now with a stage win, the Frenchman will be full of confidence. I mentioned in one of my earlier previews that Bouhanni is traditionally one of the better climbing sprints in the peloton, having won tough stages in Catalunya in the past. Tomorrow is different, easier in fact, but I can’t help but cast my mind back to the 2014 Vuelta and Stage 13 when Bouhanni finished 5th amongst GC contenders and puncheurs on a tough uphill finish.

Trentin – Just doesn’t seem to be at 100% at the moment. He’s another the finish looks great for but I don’t think he has the speed to beat Sagan if it is more selective and the same goes if it is less selective.

Nizzolo – Has managed okay on these dragging uphill finishes in the past but I’m not certain he has fully returned to his former level yet, therefore, I don’t think he’ll feature.

Outsiders to watch

Simone Consonni.

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I’ve been impressed by the Italian’s development this year in what is his second season in the pro peloton. He’s a solid sprinter but can also hang quite well on the short climbs. It will be tough for him to win but a top 10 on a tough-ish finish like this would be a good result.

Eduard Prades.

Not as much of an outsider as he would have been had he not come 4th today. The Euskadi Murias rider has had a string of very good results this year, particularly in races with tricky finishes. The rise to the finish certainly helps him but against the quality of opposition here then I think another top 10 would be good.

Mike Teunissen.

Given Max “speed bump” Walscheid won’t be competing come the finish, I would expect Sunweb to give Teunnisen the chance to go for a result as they will have plenty of others to help guide Kelderman. We’ve seen so far this year that Teunissen is competent on the short climbs so tomorrow’s drag to the finish should be okay for him. Is he capable of going better than his fifth place result on the opening day of Paris Nice?

Prediction

This is a tough one. I think it comes down to a sprint, the question is who? Sagan is the obvious choice but I do feel both Bouhanni and Viviani have the abilities to challenge him.

Hmmmmm.

Given his season so far, I’ll go with Viviani to win again.

 

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Betting

2pts WIN Viviani @ 8/1

0.5pt EW Teunissen @ 200/1

3pts H2H Double (Consonni > DVP and Bouhanni > Nizzolo) @ 3.2/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and how will they do so? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 7 Preview: Puerto Lumbreras -> Pozo Alcón

Today’s Recap

Told ya, well, kind of.

A stiff headwind for a lot of the day saw a slow pace throughout the afternoon but a combination of some poorly marshalled bollards and wind resulted in splits throughout the bunch late on. Annoyingly, those pesky sprinters made the front group along with team-mates so things were kept at a reasonable pace and the wind just wasn’t strong enough to create any more splits in the final 10km, despite the best intentions from a few teams.

I did say in yesterday’s preview that Viviani wouldn’t win and that is exactly what happened. The Italian finished ridiculously fast but he was poorly positioned coming around the final roundabout and could only manage third place.

Instead it was Bouhanni who sprinted to the victory, a result that will probably be divisive in the cycling community. I for one am happy to see him pick up the result, it is what he needed desperately. It also puts to bed the fake news/misinterpretation that was spread yesterday after the stage.

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Van Poppel got up well to finish second but just didn’t have the legs to come past the Cofidis man.

There weren’t many GC losers today but Pinot and Kelderman were the main ones, both shipping 1’44 to their rivals. Not ideal but it isn’t the end of the Vuelta for them, however, they will have to work hard to gain that time back. Will they get a chance soon? Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another rolling day out for the peloton, with 2500m of climbing throughout the stage.

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Only two of the rises are categorised but as you can see on the profile, there are plenty of drags and peaks elsewhere. The rolling terrain does make it a bit more awkward for the sprinters teams to control but nothing should worry them too much in the opening 160km. It is the final 15km of the day that will be crucial and we might not see many of the sprinters make the line in what is billed as another flat day and one for them. In fact, I’ll be surprised if any of them do.

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Just ignore the fact I wrote Stage 8 above, bit of a brain fart…

To kick the closing 17.5km off, the riders will face the second categorised climb of the day: Alto de Ceal (4.3km at 5.8%). It is a very steady climb with the gradient keeping regular – good for those wanting to set a tempo. Once over the top, the road descends for 4kms, albeit that is interrupted by another short rise.

The day’s intermediate bonus sprint is handily placed on top of the following climb.

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The fight for position will be intense going into the climb and not because of the double-digit gradients that await in some points, but the ridiculously narrow streets through the village of Hinojares.

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Once through the sprint point a short descent follows before the road drags all the way up to the finish line, with an average gradient of 2% for the remaining 5.5km.

How will the stage play out?

It’s too difficult for any of the sprinters so it will be a puncheur that could sprint to the line from a reduced group. The final 20km actually look perfect for Valverde and Kwiatkowski but they also look very tempting for a late attack.

Will anyone want to work all day and hold the race together?

Movistar might, as today and tomorrow are both the closest stages to Valverde’s home in Murcia and given that the route suits him perfectly, they could give it a try. However, it will take a lot of energy to control things as I’m not sure many others will want to. Sky deliberately gave away the jersey to avoid controlling on days like tomorrow so I doubt they’ll decide to chase now.

Therefore, it once again looks like we’re about to play everyone’s favourite game…

TheBreakawayLottery

Dries Devenyns.

Solid rider with a good bit of form, Quick Step will want to be present in the break after missing out the other day. Devenyns is the type of guy who can finish it off. Can’t really be bothered to repeat myself from the other day so go and read that instead!

Dylan Teuns.

BMC were close to a win with De Marchi the other day and we saw the strange sight of Porte in a three-man break on a sprinter’s stage this afternoon. Teuns on paper looks their best shot at a win tomorrow as he can handle the punchy gradients very well.

Daniel Moreno.

No WT for EF Education up until Clarke’s victory on stage 5, can they get another one quickly? Moreno is in search of a contract for next year so I expect him to see him animate a few stages this race, it is just a question of which ones. Tomorrow looks like a good opportunity as Uran won’t need much help and there is time for him to recover before Sunday’s mountain top finish.

Nelson Oliveira.

Movistar are always competitive in the Team classification so if a big group goes up the road tomorrow then expect them to have someone there. Oliveira is a strong rider who can deal with varying terrain. The steep climb before the final 5km might be on his limit, but it all of course depends on his company in the move.

Prediction

Dani Moreno to roll back the years and make it two in three days for EF Education.

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Betting

“Punts on the break picks as per, then reassess in-play”, but given the price of Valverde, I’m also backing him…

2pts WIN Valverde @ 11s

1pt WIN Teuns @ 22s

1pt WIN Devenyns @ 50s

0.5pt WIN Moreno @ 250/1

0.5pt WIN Oliveira @ 125/1

Thanks as always for reading, who do you think will win tomorrow? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 6 Preview: Huércal-Overa -> San Javier. Mar Menor

Today’s Recap

After a long fight this morning/early afternoon, a big break of 20-odd riders eventually escaped from what was at that time a reduced peloton. Sky let them go and with it the race lead at the end of the day, a sensible decision given they’ve struggled a bit over some of the previous stages.

Up ahead the day was pretty tactical with several attacks and counters throughout the afternoon. I’ll be honest, I didn’t really watch much of today’s action at all and only tuned in with 20km to go with a trio up ahead: Clarke, De Marchi and Mollema.

The latter two tried to play games and drop the EF Education rider but it was not to be as he was just too strong on the flat. They nearly got caught by a group of three behind, which included new race leader Molard, but the trio at the front held on for the sprint with Clarke taking what was an inevitable win.

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Mollema finished second with De Marchi.

No opportunity for the sprinters today but that looks likely to change tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A pretty benign day by Vuelta standards with only 1400m of climbing throughout the afternoon.

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There are a couple of Cat-3 climbs to deal with out on the course but they aren’t overly difficult and come too far from the finish to cause any real issues. Or at least you wouldn’t think so, anyway.

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The run in is fairly straightforward with the final 5km being pan-flat. There are a few corners and the most difficult of those typically comes inside the final 1km, where the riders will have to traverse the long way around a roundabout. It will certainly string things out and coming out of the roundabout near the front of the bunch is necessary to be competing come the end of the day.

Weather Watch

It gives me great pleasure to bring back this segment for the first time in the race and it is for everyone’s favourite reason: possible echelon action!

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Source: Windfinder

The above screenshot is the weather forecast for a town just to the north of La Unión, a.k.a the 25km to go marker for the day.

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The riders head pretty much north for twenty of those kilometres before the turn back on themselves before again heading north for the approach to the finish line. The tailwind finish means you can afford to go earlier with your sprint.

Anyway, creating echelons in a peloton needs three inputs really.

First, the road and wind direction combination needs to be perfect, and that is the case for tomorrow with the route heading north and the wind coming directly across from the riders right.

Secondly, you need areas of land that are exposed enough for the wind to have an effect. There’s no point in it being a gusty day if the road is in a valley and sheltered by hills or trees for example.

Oh, would you look at that…

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Wide open plain…

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After wide open plain…

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After wide open plain.

As you can see, even in the final few kilometres to the finish the riders are exposed to the wind coming off of the sea. The only place of real respite they have is when they travel through the towns of Los Alcázares and Los Narejos: only a 4km stretch of road, before it all starts again once they leave the cover of the buildings.

I make it therefore that out of the last 25km in tomorrow’s stage, 20km of them are prime echelon territory.

Finally, the last thing you need for echelons to happen is a couple of committed teams in the peloton. Given how close things are GC wise just now then there will be a good few squads looking at tomorrow as an opprtunity to split things up and gain time for their overall contenders. We’ve seen Movistar do this in the past and back in 2011 Liquigas pretty much did a TTT and tore things apart. We obviously have the likes of Quick Step who are masters in these conditions, remember Stage 2 last year, or stage 3 of the Giro that same year?

How will the race pan out?

I’m being bold here and I don’t think we’ll see a full bunch sprint tomorrow as things will get split up on the run in. As to who might be there, it really is tough to tell!

We will have GC teams trying to protect their main rider but we’ll also have guys trying to split things up with a hope of increasing their chances for the stage win. It’s going to be manic. One thing that you do find though is that a lot of sprinters tend to be the better riders in cross winds due to their size and raw power, so a lot of them should be near the front tomorrow. Unless it is complete chaos.

Viviani is probably still the favourite for the stage given how good he is this year and the team he rides for. But the conditions tomorrow probably don’t help him as much as they hinder him because I’m sure he would prefer his lead-out to be there in full to guide him through the finish.

Bold prediction number two: Viviani doesn’t win.

The Two Lotto Tickers

Tosh Van der Sande.

Lotto Soudal are exactly the type of team with the strength and know-how in these conditions to help split the bunch. They have no GC aspirations so can go all in to try something and hope it pays off. With their full Belgian squad, the wind will be a welcome sight to them after the heat of the past few days. Van der Sande is their fastest rider and if they can get him into a group of 10-15, then he has a very good chance of producing the win.

Victor Campenaerts.

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Another strong rider who eats wind for breakfast, the current European TT Champion is clearly in good form after his very good run in the opening effort against the clock. He looked lively on the third stage and went on the attack but unfortunately came off of his bike. However, he only sustained some “abrasions to the buttocks” so it was nothing too serious. After a couple of days at the back of the bunch, I think he’ll have recovered and want to put on a show again. He’s the type of rider who could ping off the front of a group at the end and be nigh on impossible to bring back. Come on the ‘tache!

Prediction

Tosh van der Sande wins an echelon filled finale. Don’t @ me.

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Actually you can @ me all you want, I know I’m being a bit ridiculous but this doesn’t end in a full bunch sprint so why not have some fun!

Betting

Day to be avoiding Viviani unless you’re ridiculously confident. So I’m throwing a few pennies around on the two Lotto riders.

0.5pt WIN Campenaerts @ 400/1

0.5pt EW TVDS @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think will win tomorrow and why? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 5 Preview: Granada -> Roquetas de Mar

Today’s Recap

It was one of those days where a “weird” break went that lacked many of the expected big names. However, they proved strong enough to stay away all day thanks to good co-operation and a lack of willingness to chase them down from Sky behind.

A little split occurred in the group before the penultimate climb where King, Stalnov and Wallays gained 40 odd seconds over the rest of the break. As the road ramped up, the latter was detached and we saw an attack from Rolland behind. The remaining two continued to work well, keeping the stronger Frenchman at bay. They did start to mess around in the closing kilometre and Rolland got tantalisingly close to catching them but it wasn’t to be.

King ended up king on the day, producing a very explosive sprint to the line to win comfortably with Stalnov trailing home second and Rolland in third.

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Behind, we did get a bit of GC action with Yates and Buchmann the main two winners on the day. There were no real drastic changes though so let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Another classic Vuelta “sprint stage” that includes 3000m of climbing and a Cat-2 climb cresting only 27km from the finish.

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Rolling roads are pretty much how you would describe the whole day. The first categorised ascent comes after 50km but there will have already been three more gradual rises before then.

Alto de Orgiva is arguably the sharpest ascent of the day, averaging 7% for 4.4kms. Yet more rolling road follows with several more climbs as we pass through the feed zone and then the intermediate sprint.

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All of this happens before the main test of the day, the Alto el Marchal.

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The road actually gradually rises for around 3km before the climb officially starts, with much the same gradients of the ascent itself. The 4.1% average makes it sound easy and to be fair it kind of is, but there are several flat sections on the climb which lowers the average gradient. Still, with it never really going above 7%, it should see a group ride it together unless if someone tries something crazy/stupid.

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The descent off of the climb is long and sinuous, with several technical sections. It will be a fast one though as the inverted gradient is -6% for 16.5kms. Somewhere that the pressure can be put on? Possibly.

Nine kilometres of flat will see the riders arrive at the finish.

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A roundabout and a left hand turn in the closing kilometre could cause some issues if we see a big bunch arrive together.

How will the stage pan out?

Once again it is a day where we have to decide between four options for the win: break, big sprint, or reduced bunch sprint, really reduced bunch sprint/surprise GC day.

I don’t think many, if any, of the main sprinters will get over the final climb with the peloton so a big sprint is the least likely option. It would take a dud of a breakaway, maybe 3 riders or so, and a slow steady pace in the peloton for that to happen. 5%.

Surprise GC day would require Sky to keep things under control and as we saw today their team just isn’t that strong so they’re happy to let things go. In fact, it would be over to the other teams to create a surprise GC day but I think they will want to keep their powder dry and let Sky work in the heat. So again, this is very unlikely. 5%.

A reduced sprint could happen but it require teams to control the tempo all day but who would do it? Movistar could if they fancied Valverde to arrive in a group that he could beat. If Sagan was in form then he would make the finish but Bora have GC riders to look after now, unless of course they work for them? Same goes for Mitchelton and their Trentin/Yates combo? Make it tough enough for Yates or try to hold things together for Trentin? Likelier than the other two options above, but I just think the terrain is too difficult and sapping for someone to bother to waste resources to hold things together all afternoon. 25%.

So for the second day in a row, time to play everyone’s favourite game…

TheBreakawayLottery

I give the break a 65% chance of making it.

Break Candidates

As we saw today it might not be a break with some “big hitters” that makes it to the line and a move could go at any time. However, the more rolling course tomorrow would lend itself more to the stronger/more traditional break riders making the move. So here goes nothing…

As honorable mentions I’ll say De Marchi and De Gendt again but given it is so early into a GT, I like to mix the names up a bit before repeating the tried and tested riders later on.

Alexandre Geniez.

A two-time stage winner at the Vuelta before, we should see an attacking Ag2r outfit throughout this race as they have no-one with real GC aspirations – as much as Gallopin’s great start would suggest otherwise. Geniez is a good climber but also strong on the flat land too so he is the perfect mix to make the break on tomorrow’s terrain. He also packs a pretty fast sprint so could be a contender if the morning move makes it all the way to the line together.

Rohan Dennis.

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Flying on the opening day, since then he has been his Aussie team-mate’s minder pretty much, shepherding home Porte every day. Roche was up for them on GC before today’s stage where he lost two minutes to the main group. Like Ag2R, I expect BMC to put on an attacking display throughout this Vuelta and it was a surprise to see them not make the move today: they’ll duly rectify that tomorrow I think. Dennis is obviously strong on the flat but as we saw in the Giro he can handle himself well on the climbs too and the “easy” gradient of the final climb tomorrow suits him. His breakees can’t get him 20m on the run in to the line or he will be very tough to bring back.

Dries Devenyns.

The man with arguably the best Twitter handle in the peloton, Devenyns has been in lively form this year, albeit mainly at the start of the season. He picked up strong results Down Under and in Oman before returning to Europe. Since then he has been in a domestique role but once again seemed to be in good shape in Poland where he was on the attack. Clearly someone who can cope with the heat, see his results Down Under, the weather shouldn’t be an issue for him tomorrow. I am intrigued to see how QuickStep play it as they of course have Mas to look after for the overall, but Devenyns has been given freedom to chase stages at some point throughout the race. Is tomorrow one of those days?

Nick Schultz.

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Caja Rural have been surprisingly absent from the attacks over the past few days and I would expect that to change soon. Schultz has taken it easy on the first stages, maybe because his signing for Mitchelton is official now…I think he’s been saving himself and riding his way into his second GT, he’ll have learnt a lot from his Vuelta experience last year. Tomorrow doesn’t feature any massive climbs so the rolling terrain suits the young Aussie. We saw with his third place in GP Indurain that he can climb well but also descend too, both characteristics that will come in handy tomorrow.

Prediction

Break stays away and Geniez continues his Vuelta winning streak!

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Betting

1pt WIN Devenyns @ 33/1

1pt WIN Geniez @ 66/1

0.5pt WIN Schultz @ 200/1

0.5pt WIN Dennis @ 300/1

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow and in what scenario? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.