Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 15 Preview: Ribera de Arriba -> Lagos de Covadonga

Today’s Recap

We finally got a GC fight for the stage win!

A break of 6 went away quite early on in the day without much hassle. With Kwiatkowski there, it was kept on a fairly tight leash and they never gained more than 4 minutes of an advantage. The Pole held on until the foot slopes of the final climb but there was nothing he could do about the GC riders behind.

Kruijswijk hit out early but he acted more as a proverbial dangling carrot than anything else, albeit it meant he was always up there when those from behind caught up. Quintana and Lopez looked like they were going to go wheel-to-wheel for the stage win, but with the Astana man not wanting to come to the front, Quintana eased off the pace. This happened on at least three occasions on the climb and each time it allowed those behind to come back.

It was then Yates who attacked with just over 700m to go and he never looked back. The Brit had been cannily riding the whole climb and chose to go at the perfect moment when the road had narrowed and his rivals were on their limit.

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It was enough to take the stage win despite a late charge from Lopez, who arguably looked the strongest today but was too concerned with Movistar, and the evergreen Valverde who came home in third.

Yates moves back into the red jersey after loaning it to Herrada for a couple of days. With another summit finish on the cards tomorrow will he be on the defensive or will he look to gain more time before the rest day?

The Route

Another rolling stage with only three categorised climbs before the summit finish of Lagos de Covadonga but there are plenty of uncategorised tests along the way too, so much so, that the total elevation for the stage is over 4500m.

vuelta-a-espana-2018-stage-15

It’s still too early for anyone near the top of the GC to try an audacious attack from 40km out so I think the Cat-1 climb (that they do twice) of Mirador del Fito will be inconsequential despite its steep gradients.

For the GC contenders, the battle will come down to the final climb of the day: the famous Lagos de Covadonga.

lagos-de-covadonga

Long and pretty steep, the final 4kms are actually the easiest of the whole climb aside from the gentle opening ramp. That makes it tactically a very interesting one because if you can hold on over the very steep 7kms then you shouldn’t lose too much time. However, if things kick off early then we could see some very big time gaps.

How will the stage pan out?

It was nice to see the GC teams take control of things today but I do wonder if they were partly spurred on by Kwiatkowski ahead. Would it have been different if there was no overall “threat” up the road?

Although Mitchelton now have the race lead again, I think they will be happy to just sit back a bit and not chase too much throughout the afternoon unless it is absolutely necessary. Yates is clearly on good form but he and the team have shown a lot more maturity and tactical nous compared to the Giro earlier in the year so I think they’ll be happy to let the break go and let it come back naturally, or if other teams chase.

Who will those teams be?

Movistar and Astana are the only two I can see contributing. The former have been the major pace setters of the GC teams but given that Quintana looked a bit shaky today they might take more of a back seat. Lopez will have been kicking himself after the finish this afternoon as he certainly looked like the stage win was a possibility. Astana are the type of team who can set their minds to it and chase down the breaks, but do they want to?

Bahrain were the ones to put a lot of pace into the back-end of the stage but Izagirre fell short so I think they will look elsewhere tomorrow. You have to applaud them for trying this afternoon though!

With it being another fairly big day for the KOM competition, expect those near the top of the standings to try to make the move. De Gendt was on the attack today but I expect him to be there tomorrow, likewise Rolland, Mollema and King. As harsh it is, they need to strike now that Maté is apparently suffering from bronchitis.

I think it will be another big fight to get into the break and if the right riders are represented then it won’t come back: there just has to be no-one in it that is closer 7 or so minutes as that might concern some near the top of the order.

Time to play that game again…

TheBreakawayLottery

Break Candidates

Once again, I’ll try to keep this short and sweet as no one wants to hear the same thing for about the 7th time this Vuelta. Unfortunately for you, that is exactly what is happening!

Vincenzo Nibali – A nice training ride for him this afternoon as he drilled the front of the bunch in aid of Ion Izagirre. That didn’t work out for the team and I expect Nibali to be allowed a free role from now on. He looked super strong today and if he makes the break he has got to be a danger.

Richard Carapaz – Movistar love a team classification win and today they closed the gap to Bahrain thanks to it being a GC day. However, if things are to go to those up the road tomorrow then they might try to sneak someone into the attack. Carapaz has been growing steadily into this race and we all saw at the Giro just how strong he can be in the mountains.

Sepp Kuss – With Jumbo only having Kruijswijk in GC contention now, they might decide to let some of their riders up the road. Kuss has performed brilliantly on select days, keeping the pace very high on the front of the bunch before peeling off. It is his first Grand Tour so energy management will be important but if he has recovered for tomorrow, then he could be an outsider for the day.

Tiesj Benoot – I expected big things of Benoot coming into this race, namely with a possible stage win somewhere. However, he has been unfortunate with a crash and an injury to the knee but that seems to have healed a bit more over the past few days. His form was on the up before the crash so it is yet to be seen how he can go on a finish like this at the head of the race. I’m willing to be pleasantly surprised.

Prediction

Rinse and repeat prediction from yesterday: Nibali.

Milano-Sanremo 2018 - edizione 109 - da Milano a Sanremo (294 km)

Buy Me A Beer (Coffee)

Forgot to plug this going into last Sunday so here we are this time around. If you’ve enjoyed the previews over the past two weeks of racing and you’re feeling really generous then you can aid the blog writing process by buying me a coffee through the following link: https://www.paypal.me/jamiehaughey/3.50

Thank you in advance if you do!

Betting

1.75pt WIN Nibali @ 40/1

0.75pt WIN on the rest…

Carapaz @ 66/1

Benoot @ 80/1

Kuss @ 66/1

Thanks as always for reading. Who do you think wins tomorrow and in what manner? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

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