Month: August 2017

BinckBank Tour 2017 Stage 2 Preview; Voorburg -> Voorburg

Firstly, apologies that there was no stage 1 preview. I was out in Edinburgh at the Festival on Saturday and felt a bit worse for wear on the Sunday so didn’t manage to get anything completed.

Today’s Recap

An inevitable sprint finish but it wasn’t the “inevitable” Kittel win. Instead, we had a very odd sprint that was slightly technical due to 2 roundabouts in the closing couple of kilometres. Some of the big names ended up way out of position because of that, with Kitell, Démare and Viviani not even making the top 10.

Sagan continued his winning form though, just edging out Bauhaus in the photo finish, with Cort rounding out the podium.

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An ominous start for the World Champion as he picks up 10 bonus seconds and takes an early GC lead. Can he hold onto it tomorrow?

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders.

The Route

A pan-flat 9km TT in and around Voorburg.

stage-2-route

There’s not much else to say about the route than what you can get from the image above. A good mix of long power sections with some technical corners thrown into the equation too. I do think though the technical section is where the stage could be won or lost.

What you don’t see properly though are three small roundabouts on the longer straight sections. They are fairly straightforward but will still cause the riders to slow down a bit and it will disrupt their rhythm!

Now, I did make the route on Veloviewer in a hope to create a Google maps/street view fly through of it, but I’m not technologically astute enough for that!

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Instead though, you can view the route here and with the “map” tab selected, just drag the Streetview person onto the route and follow it from there.

Weather Watch

As is the case with TTs, the outcome of the day can often be affected by the weather conditions and it looks like we’ll see that happen tomorrow too. Different outlets have slightly different forecasts but most agree that it will rain at some point in the afternoon.

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In fact, there seems to be an agreement that late afternoon/early evening is the time most at risk of showers.

We could of course see rain throughout the day if the weather front comes in earlier. Nonetheless though, the current forecast doesn’t make good reading for the late starters. The first rider down the ramp (Allegart) will leave the starthouse at roughly 13:30 local time, whereas Sagan will depart at just after 16:30.

It seems like a few of the pros and teams had a look ahead at the forecast as well…

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To have the best chance of avoiding the rain you want to be out within the first hour of racing, i.e. riders 176 -> 116 on GC. Again though, there is a chance that all the riders could see some rain, it will just be heavier for those starting later.

Contenders

The bottom or top, depending on what way you look at it, of the order is stacked with talent. These following riders go off in the first 13…

Bodnar.

Excellent in winning the final TT at the Tour (much to my annoyance), he then followed that up with a very strong second place at the European Championships last week. He would probably prefer a more traditional “power course” as some of the technical corners aren’t his speciality; he is much more of a diesel engine.

Dowsett.

The Movistar man is 3rd off the ramp and straight after Bodnar – a good carrot to have up the road! Similarly to Bodnar, I think he would prefer a less technical course but he certainly will give it full gas on the straights. Will it be enough to see him to victory? I don’t think so.

Dumoulin.

The next big hitter off the ramp, the Dutchman was strong on his return to racing at the recent Clasica San Sebastian. An ominous sign for this race and the rest of the season. He would probably prefer a longer course as he seems to lack the explosivity for a short TT nowadays but you can never rule a rider as classy as he is out.

Cycling: 100th Tour of Italy 2017 / Stage 10

Van Emden.

With the fastest short TT rider in the world not here (Dennis), then Van Emden has to start the stage as favourite. He really excels at these short efforts. He flew out of the traps in the European champs only to fade later on. A bit of practice for this?! He will be tough to beat.

Küng.

Close to victory on the opening day of the Tour, he was then bitterly disappointed not to feature more in the second time trial. A former track rider, he has the explosiveness to go well here. Without Dennis here, he arrives as BMC’s main hope for this stage. Can he deliver?

Brändle.

A short TT specialist, he blew everyone away in the Baloise Belgium Tour earlier this year. Following on from that, he came second behind Dennis and Kung at the Tour de Suisse but lost his national TT crown. However, he put in a big performance at the Euros, eventually finishing 4th. It’s not a win you say? I know, but those aren’t the type of efforts he is good at and to only finish 9 seconds behind is very respectable. I think he’ll be going well tomorrow!

Incredibly enough, all the names listed above are in the first 13 riders to leave the start ramp.

There is one more rider who starts in the first 60 guys that I’d like to mention.

Van Aert.

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The incredibly talented Belgian cyclo-cross rider has been trying his hand at more road racing this season. Turns out he’s not too bad at it either! He famously beat Tony Martin last year at the Belgium Tour on the opening prologue; no mean feat. An explosive rider thanks to his background, the technical section at the half-way point of the race should really suit him. Furthermore, if it does rain all day, I’m not sure that will be of any hinderance to him at all. I expect another big result from him tomorrow!

Of course there are several riders I’ve not gone over in great depth such as Martin, Kittel, Sagan, Mullen etc, but I think the winner will come from the early starts and those listed above.

Prediction

Brändle to build on his good showing at the Euros with a win here!

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Van Aert to finish somewhere on the podium too.

Betting

3pts WIN Brandle @ 4/1 (would take 3/1 lowest)

1pt EW Van Aert @ 14/1 (would take 10/1 lowest)

Both are with B365 – others might price up later.

 

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will the weather play a big part in the outcome of the day? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Pologne 2017 Stage 7 Preview; Bukowina Tatrzanska -> Bukowina Tatrzanska

Today’s Recap

A fairly selective day that saw Sagan lose his leader’s jersey.

Jack Haig attacked early, reminiscent of his dig on stage 2, but this time he was given some more leeway. In the end his winning margin was a comfortable 50 seconds, a very impressive performance from the young Aussie! He’s surely going to the Vuelta again this year.

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Behind a select group of GC contenders sprinted for bonus seconds with Poels besting Jungels.

It leaves 12 riders within 45 seconds of leader Teuns going into the final day of racing tomorrow. Let’s have a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

A short but fairly sharp stage to finish the race off.

TDPS7Prof

You can view the interactive profile here.

The route is focussed around 4/5 (depending on how you break it down) climbs that are situated near the finish village of Bukowina Tatrzanska. However, as I’m short of time, I’ll only really be looking at the ones we tackle on the run in to the line, i.e. the last 30km.

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Another reason that I’m doing this is because I think it is highly unlikely that we’ll see any serious attacks before this point. It would be suicidal to launch an attack at 60km to go given all of the flat land before the climbing starts again.

Sierockie will be the climb to kick things off.

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As you can see, the majority of the altitude gain comes in the first part of the climb before some false flat and a little rise to the summit. The 5.3% average for 5.7km is fairly tough, but it is that opening section which is brutal; 2.7km at 8.7%. That includes almost a kilometre at 13.4%! We could see some riders blow up here if they have to go too deep and if not, the rolling section afterwards could be the thing that breaks them.

Once over the summit, they’ll plunge down the valley and start climbing straight away.

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Almost the opposite of the previous climb, the riders will start off with some gradual gradients before things get really steep at the end. With the steepest gradients coming near the summit, it is the perfect place to launch an attack!

A very quick descent follows before they quickly start climbing again.

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Short and not too much of struggle for the riders here, they’ll be happy for the more consistent gradients! However, if they were on the limit last climb then even this little climb could be of issue as they will have had no time to recover.

Once over the top they’ll have roughly 9km to the finish, of which 5km is descent.

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It will be hard for anyone to create some gaps here if we do have a group come to the line together. However, Henao proved in 2015 that it is possible!

How will the stage pan out?

A strong break in theory should form due to the climbs right at the start of the stage and they could build up a large gap.

However, with the GC battle so close I imagine that they won’t be given much leeway at all and that they’ll be brought to heel with 30km left.

As to how it will play out from there? Who knows.

It looked as if Poels / Majka / Zakarin / Kelderman and Yates were the most explosive on the climbs today in the GC group. Although Jungels did well grinding his way back to them and the same can be said to anyone else dropped just over the top of the final summit.

We could again see a situation where numbers prevail in the front group but compared to yesterday, there are only two teams who have two riders in contention; Sunweb and Orica.

Could Haig manage to do the double? Possibly!

However, I’m taking a different approach…

Sublime Sunweb

The team have been on scintillating form this year and that seems to have continued here. Kelderman looked very good today on the final climb, following the moves with what looked like relative ease. He tried something on the flat roads just before the rise to the line but that was quickly brought to heel by Jungels. It would be extremely surprising to see him dropped tomorrow and with a fast sprint, he has a chance to win a small bunch kick.

What about his team-mate Oomen?

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Arguably one of the most talented young climbers in the peloton, the young Dutchman did a lot of work for his team-mate today. Normally an attacking rider, I would love to see him let off the leash to go for it tomorrow. Similar to Haig, he might be allowed to slip off the front in the closing kilometres as he won’t be instantly recognised as a real threat for the overall. At only 24 seconds back they’d be wrong!

Prediction

Oomen attacks early, softening up the group behind. Kelderman then attacks at the perfect moment to take the stage win and continue Sunweb’s great season!

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Betting

Aplogies for yesterday/today’s atrocious picks, I was really surprised to see Izagirre dropped! Hopefully the Sunweb boys turn it around for us tomorrow.

1.5pt WIN Kelderman @ 7/1

0.5pt WIN Oomen @ 33/1

 

Thanks as always for reading and sorry this is shorter than usual but I am short of time myself! Who do you think will win and how?

Next on the blog will be daily stage previews of the BinckBank Tour!

Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Tour de Pologne 2017 Stage 6 Preview; Wieliczka -> Zakopane

Today’s Recap

A shorter stage that delivered a few surprises.

We had a strong break of 5 get up the road early on in the day but they were never given more than 3 minutes, with a few teams helping Bora control the gap. There were some splits on the early climbs, but nothing too major.

However, the pace was really increased on the last climb of the day and the peloton was reduced to around 50 guys, with breakee Van Garderen still up the road. The American was ultimately brought to heel with about 3km to go. A crash just before the Flamme Rouge saw only 12 or so riders contest the sprint with Van Poppel finally getting his reward for strong performances all week.

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Mezgec ran him very close in second, while Sagan gained some more bonus seconds in third place.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

Arguably the Queen Stage of the race with just over 4000m of elevation gain according to Strava/Veloviewer.

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I think this is the first stage that the Veloviewer profile undersells the day, whereas the official profile is actually pretty bang on.

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You can view the full profile here.

The first 100km of the day start off relatively innocuously, with only a few small rises and nother too serious. The action kicks off though with an uncategorised rise of 3% for 3km; a nice way for the riders to warm up and stretch their legs for the remainder of the stage.

Bystryk is the opening categorised climb.

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At 5.6% for 5.9km it certainly is not Alpine, but this is where we could see the sprinters un-hitch and pack in the race altogether.

The riders won’t get much respite as after a few kilometres of false flat and descending, they’ll face the second categorised climb of the day; Butorowy Wierch.

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Any speed the riders carry into the climb will be knocked off by the very steep ramps that come right at the bottom. From there, it will be a drag to the top with some light relief on some flatter sections.

The categorised climbs are put on the back-burner for the intermediate sprint point, although that cruelly is located on top of a 3.3km (3.9%) drag itself.

Next on the climbing menu is Głodówka which tops out with 48km left.

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One of the easier climbs of the day, it shouldn’t be of any major difficulties for the riders and I can’t imagine anyone who’s not dropped already, will be dropped here.

The road then plunges down the valley before some more uncategorised climbing that is actually pretty tricky. According to Veloviewer the climb is 4.4km long and averages 5.1%; making it tougher than our previous Cat 1! I guess they had to give the highest point on the stage a mountain category. From there the riders will face a really short descent before the second bump which is 1.4km at 7%. A sting in the tail if you’re not prepared for it!

A 5km descent follows before the riders start the final 22kms of the day, and arguably the most crucial as they face two-categorised climbs in quick succession with very little downhill in between.

The riders actually climb to Bystryk again for the penultimate KOM, but from a slightly different route.

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It’s a steady climb, well, aside from the two sections of very steep gradients!

The climb of Butorowy Wierch is then the same as it is on the image above. With it cresting 8.5km from the finish, will we see a rider solo at this time, or will a small group crest together?

Those final 8.5km look as follows…

TDPS6fin

A quick descent and a 2km rise up to the line averaging 2.5%. That small incline could see a riders legs seize up if they put too much in earlier on, although that is unlikely!

How will the stage pan out?

There is a chance the break makes it if none of the GC teams decide to play ball and chase the move. However, I think we’ll see some kind of GC showdown on the roads and a strong winner at the end of the day.

I expect an aggressive race, or at least I hope for one. Sagan has looked imperious so far and if I was a DS of an opposing team, I wouldn’t want to risk taking all the time back from him on the final stage.

Unfortunately for them, Bora also have Majka positioned rather nicely in third place. So if Sagan is dropped, the Pole is more than likely going to be there as a replacement!

Nonethless, I would still be sending/attempting to send my strong riders up the road with around 50km to go, on the 3rd categorised climb of the day. This is where having two riders on the team that are genuine GC threats comes in very handy as the person behind doesn’t have to work while other teams who have missed the move burn matches to try to close it down.

Looking at teams that have two serious candidates we have;

Bora – Sagan (1st) and Majka (’20 seconds down)

Sunweb – Kelderman (24 seconds) and Oomen (1’50)*

Sky – Poels (33s) and Rosa (1’14)

Orica – Yates (33s) and Haig (1’58)*

Movistar – Izagirre (39s) and Oliveira (1’02)

UAE – Costa (42s) and Conti (47s)

Lotto Soudal – De Clerq (44s) and Marczynski (1’05)

*These two are borderline non-threats but could be brought into the mix still.

Will a DS be brave enough to send someone up the road to risk losing their current GC standing? I hope so, this isn’t a Grand Tour so I can’t see teams riding to defend 7th etc. As for who that might be? I’m not too sure!

I’ll give it a go though and name a couple of riders who I fancy to go well and who might be given freedom to do so.

MyTwoPicksWorth™

Valerio Conti.

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After taking a Grand Tour stage win at the Vuelta last year, the UAE rider has really taken a step up this season. Constantly attacking throughout the Giro, he was in contention for stage victory from the breakaway on Stage 8 until he crashed going round one of the final hairpins. He looked strong that day on the uphill kick and I’m sure he would have managed to get on the podium at least. On stage 3 he was the first rider to start proceedings on the final climb but unfortunately for him, he was clawed back in. An attacking rider who might not be deemed an instant threat, he will be the UAE guy who I imagine is sent up the road. If he senses stage victory is there, he might just take it…

Gorka Izagirre.

The rider who beat Conti on that stage in the Giro, the “lesser” Izagirre brother has really broken through this season now that Ion has moved on! A loyal domestique, when given the chance to shine he often does. Earlier in the year he produced his best ever GC result when finishing 4th in the overall at Paris-Nice. He’s certainly no mug! Strong on this type of uphill drag to the line, if he arrives with a small group that doesn’t include Sagan, he’ll no doubt fancy his chances in the sprint.

Prediction

We’ll see an attacking, but relatively cagey day rolled into one.

A group of “lesser” GC guys will escape with Majka, while Sagan sticks with those behind. In the sprint to the line, Gorka will continue his impressive year and take the win. The Spaniard was pushing the pace on during the final climb today so he must be feeling sprightly!

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Betting

I don’t know why, but I have a good feeling about Izagirre for tomorrow. Good enough to disregard Conti completely from the equation? It would kill me if he did go on to win so no!

1pt EW on them both with B365;

Conti @ 20/1

Izagirre @ 40/1

Also;

6pts on Izagirre to beat Visconti @ 4/6.

Thanks as always for reading and as usual any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will we see some GC attacks from afar, or will it be a relatively dull day? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

 

 

 

Tour de Pologne 2017 Stage 5 Preview; Olimp Nagawczyna -> Rzeszów

Today’s Recap

Long, hot day for the riders.

A breakaway escaped early on but was never given too much leeway and was brought back for the inevitable bunch sprint.

Sky were the team that was keen to hit the front early and they controlled the final few kilometres up until around 600m to go. Mezgec flew past them on the outside with Ewan in tow, dropping the Aussie off at roughly 175m left. He didn’t have it all his own way as Sagan challenged him early, and Van Poppel had a good run at him late, but it was not enough to stop the Orica man taking the stage.

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Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A short and sharp stage at only 130km in length, we should hopefully see some fast and aggressive racing.

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You can view the whole profile on VeloViewer here.

The reason I’m not using the style of image that I have used over the past few stages is that due to the short nature of the stage, it almost seems to oversimplify things.

The day starts off with a climb for the riders, with the road almost rising from the gun.

TDPS5Start

Averaging 3% for 5.5km it should entice some of the strong riders in the peloton to try to get into the breakaway. It does average almost 7% for roughly 1.5kms which makes up the brunt of the elevation gain but the false flat afterwards will be of equal importance for the formation of the break.

From there, the stage is fairly easy with only a few one to two kilometre long climbs breaking up the flat roads. However, from 70kms in, the road starts to become more rolling.

First up is a 2.2km climb at 5%, followed not long after by a 2.7km climb at 5.5%. Straight off the descent that follows the riders will climb once again; although a lot more gradually with 3km at 2.8%.

The riders will then tackle the final climb of the day for the first time, although from a different direction than they will later. If you take into account some of the false flat afterwards then it’s 3.4km at 4.2% but that includes an opening 1.2km at 8.5%.

Second time round it is arguably even easier. The road does rise gently in the preceding 4kms but the main climbing takes place over 1.3km.

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Not overly tough, it is still steep enough to be a launchpad for an attack. With only 11.6km to the finish will we see someone take a risk and go for it?

As for the finish itself, it is incredibly straightforward with wide roads and no real sharp turns.

How will the stage pan out?

Break or reduced bunch sprint, that is the question? Maybe with a slim chance of a late attack going.

With plenty of riders far down on GC, there is a good chance for some strong riders to make the break early in the day. The starting climb is an opportunity for them to get away but I have a feeling it might be after the climb and on the flat-lands where the elastic finally snaps.

It is a day for the breakaway specialists in the sense that the climbs aren’t too hard so that they suit a climber but instead seem more tailor-made to a powerful rider and classics specialist.

The key to how the stage plays out is Bora.

If they really fancy Sagan’s chances for the overall then tomorrow’s stage looks ideal for him and he would pretty much be a shoe-in for 10 bonus seconds. It will require them to control the stage all day, but at 130km they might just do that.

I wouldn’t expect other teams to help as;

  1. I don’t think many other sprinters would make the finish as if Bora do control the day, they’ll set a fast pace on the climbs to distance them.
  2. No GC team will help Sagan to gain time.

I’m really split on this but I think the break just edges it, purely because it relies on Bora to control all day on their own. 55/45.

Time to play that game again…

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Breakaway Candidates

You know the score by now; proverbial hat and names.

I’ll throw a couple of candidates into the mix, nothing extensive as always!

Niki Terpstra.

I’m a big fan of the Dutchman as some of you may know if you read some of my cobbled classics previews. He’s a bit of an arsehole apparently, but a talented one nonetheless. Quick Step have Jungels and De Plus for their GC challenge but the team has also been very attacking throughout the Tour so far. One guy who has kept relatively quiet is Terpstra. This is his first race back after pulling out of Ster ZLM so his form is a bit unknown, however, he always goes well in this part of the season. With one eye on defending his Eneco (now BinckBank) Tour title next week, I get the feeling he might stretch his legs tomorrow. A man who’s strong on short hills, the climbs tomorrow should be of no difficulty. Give him a gap, and he’ll be tough to bring back!

Matteo Montaguti.

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The Italian veteran has a penchant for finding himself in good breakaways but is always beaten by a better man. However, he is also good in the hilly (not mountainous) Italian classics and tomorrow’s stage reminds me of that type of racing; a few climbs in a tactical position but a finish that could also end in a sprint. Back in April at the Tour of the Alps he took his first victory in 7 years, winning a reduced bunch sprint of 49 guys. It doesn’t exactly instil the most confidence, but what it does highlight is that he can sprint well after a tough day. If a breakaway group makes it to the line he has every chance of winning the gallop!

Prediction

Terpstra to warm up nicely for his title defense next week with a win here.

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Or Sagan wins a reduced bunch sprint to extend his GC lead.

Betting

0.5pt WIN on Terpstra @ 150/1

0.5pt WIN on Montaguti @ 150/1

Would take 66s lowest for them both, and that’s at a push.

Thanks as always for reading and apologies for this being out later than normal; thought I’d go out on the bike myself! Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will the break make it, or will Sagan romp home in the sprint? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.