Tag: vuelta 2018 preview

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 2 Preview: Marbella -> Caminito del Rey

Today’s Recap

Was it ever really in doubt? The Rohirrim were well and truly mustered. Dennis smashed it out the park, winning by a relatively massive 6 seconds in the grand scheme of things: taking almost one second per kilometre over his nearest rivals.

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Kwiatkowski produced a strong time to come home in second, just edging out Campenaerts. The three pre-stage favourites finishing in the predicted order. The trio were a cut above the rest with a 10 second gap between Campenaerts and 4th-place finisher Oliveira.

Will Dennis hold onto the jersey tomorrow? Let’s take a look at what is in store for the riders.

The Route

No messing about from the organisers here, the open road action kicks off with a real tease of a stage.

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Climbing from the gun, the Puerto de Ojén (8km at 5.6%) will offer the chance for a strong break to go clear. There are two more 3rd Cat climbs out on the route which rolls pretty much all afternoon before a climb to finish.

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They will get a look at the final climb just before the halfway point in the stage. As you can see, at an average of just under 4% for 4.7kms, it isn’t the toughest climb in the world. However, it goes up in steps and the final kilometre of it averages a slightly punchier 6.5%. As they round the final corner with only 200m to go, things flatten out somewhat and a slight drag to the line awaits.

How will the stage pan out?

Given the tough start we could see a strong break get away, something a lot of the peloton won’t want. There is a chance if that is the case though, and that the morning move fights it out at the finish. We’ve seen this before where there is a lack of organisation by the big GC teams as to who chases down the move, almost trying to call each others bluff but failing in the end.

However, I don’t think that will be the case this time around and there will be enough co-operation behind to keep things on a fairly tight leash.

Expect the likes of Movistar and Sky to control the tempo on the final climb, whittling down the group in the hope to set up their riders. It is punchy enough to see some attacks though and if the bunch becomes unorganised then someone might be able to sneak away.

Kwiatkowski v Valverde?

On paper these are the two favourites for the stage as I personally think the finish will be too tough for the likes of Viviani and co. Sagan would be up there if this was in July but it’s not and he’s not been in the best of shape recently so yeah…

Kwiatkowski was dominant in the Tour of Poland, winning two stages along with the GC title. Both of his wins came on uphill finishes, although they were different in nature compared to what we have tomorrow, which is somewhere in between the two. If anything, the finish is very similar to his win earlier in the year in the Algarve when he won up the climb of Foia.

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Valverde is of course Valverde and you would have to be living under a rock not to know his capabilities on a finish like this. We’ve seen him take numerous wins in sprints from reduced groups at the top of climbs over the past few years. His team should be strong enough to hold it all together but who knows. His form is a bit unknown though as he hasn’t raced since the Tour so he might get caught out a bit here but then again, it is Valverde and he is always on form. The Tour was his down time in form for the year…

Not Just a Two-horse Race.

There are of course plenty of others within the field who will fancy their chances via either a sprint or a late attack. Think of Dan Martin, Dylan Teuns, Bauke Mollema, the Yates’ and Pello Bilbao to name but a few.

However, I’ve had one rider in mind for this stage for a few days now and I think as an “outsider” he has a good chance of going very well…

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I’ve been very impressed by Benoot’s transition from one-day racer to potential future one-week stage race contender this year. Saying that, his biggest and only win did come in the very tough edition of Strade Bianche. On that day he was flying on the short and punchy climbs and it was one of the rides of the season. Set to ride his first Tour de France, he was unfortunately the victim of one of the opening week crashes; ultimately being forced to abandon before the start of the 5th stage. He returned to racing in the Cyclassics Hamburg recently and was one of the riders on the attack over the final climb, where he looked fairly comfortable. He’s talked up his form quite a bit in the run in to this race and I believe him! Just look at his “sprint” results in Tirreno and Dauphiné, he can pack a punch from a small group. Will he wait for the galop though, or go for a hail mary attack?

Prediction

I was going to be boring and just say Kwiatkowski here but I’ll stick my neck out and go with Benoot. It’s also a perfect excuse to share my favourite cycling related Instagram post…

View this post on Instagram

Forza Tiesj Benoot! 🎉 @tiesj #ohn

A post shared by Sporza (@sporza.be) on

Forza Tiesj!

Betting

1pt EW Benoot @ 33/1

Thanks as always for reading! Apologies for this being a little bit shorter than normal but I’ve had a few other things on this afternoon. Normal length should return tomorrow. Who do you think is going to win the stage? Will we see a surprise? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Málaga -> Málaga

Vuelta a España 2018 Stage 1 Preview: Málaga -> Málaga

The Route

Pretty much on the borderline of the prologue/stage 1 debacle, the opening day of racing kicks off with an 8km effort against the clock around the streets of Málaga.

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Very insightful profile from the organisers…

So as is tradition for TTs, I’ve made my own that you can view here.

Vuelta S1

It’s only the opening day and we already got our first chance to witness some classic Vuelta road-book/profile patter. The TT is actually 8.2km by my reckoning not the 8km that they say, and the hill in the middle is certainly a lot steeper than what it is made out to be.

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The road “flows” for the majority of the route but there are several roundabouts to negotiate in the opening kilometres but they shouldn’t knock off too much speed. It is possible to gain some time through the tighter corners though with good bike handling skills. Nonetheless, it will be a day for riders to get up to a high-speed and maintain it. Well, except for the small little obstacle just over halfway into the stage…

Now the profile I’ve made does make the climb seem a bit more extreme but that’s of the close contours on the map, blah blah blah. The actual “segment” below is a much more realistic representation.

Vuelta TT Climb

As you can see, it is almost a kilometre long and averages 5.5%. Although going off of the elevation gain on my profile it is roughly 1.2km at closer to 6%. It really is six or half a dozen though!

One of the more important things to note about the climbs is that the riders won’t be able to carry a lot of speed into it. Arguably the tightest corner of the route comes just before the road starts to head upwards – explosivity will be important.

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The riders will cross over to the other side of the road, taking the sharp left, turning back on themselves as they head towards the hill, exiting past where the other cars are sat at the junction.

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A short descent follows over the crest of the climb, before a shade over 2kms of flat sees the riders make their way to the finish line. With only a few turns to make, it will be the last chance for the big power riders to gain back any time that they lost on the short ascent.

Thankfully, it looks as if the riders will get pretty much the same conditions throughout the evening. Speaking of which, you can view the start order here.

A Clear Favourite?

To answer my question simply: yes.

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Rohan Dennis is the best in the World at short TTs in my opinion, although he would possibly prefer a couple of more kilometres on the distance to round it up to 10 – just like the Tirreno TT that he regularly smashes. I say this as he has only won one prologue in his career but given tomorrow is technically not a prologue and with no Dumoulin here, his competition isn’t as strong, he should take the win. The slightly punchier route does bring some closer to him and with a bug going around in the BMC camp (Porte’s illness), then he might have been affected himself and not be near 100%. However, I can’t see anyone beating him if he is on good form. Quite simply, the best TT rider here. Don’t @ me.

Rule of Thumb…

I have a rule for TTs that has developed over the past couple of seasons: always consider BMC, Sky and Jumbo as they seem to be the most consistent performers in the discipline. Lately, I’ve added Sunweb to that list too as they’ve really upped their game since mid 2017.

BMC – Obviously they have the aforementioned stage-favourite Dennis but they also have Bookwalter and Rosskopf who both should turn in good times. They should be in or around the top 15 but I can’t see them challenging for the win. It’s all or nothing for them with Dennis.

Team Sky – We’ve seen numerous Sky riders in the top 10 of several TTs throughout the year. In fact, I was left rather red-faced when they decided not to bother turning up in the opening Giro TT. Kwiatkowski is the threat in the team to Dennis, the Pole has been flying in and since the Tour really. The punchier course suits him very well and he would be disappointed not to be on the podium come tomorrow. However, it would be foolish to discount De La Cruz and Castroviejo, both of whom are very talented on the TT bike and again, they should enjoy the route. The latter lost the Euro TT by less than a second to Campenaerts recently so it seems he has continued his Tour form as well.

Lotto Jumbo – One of their worst squads in terms of TT depth that I’ve seen in a while. You could argue that Boom might produce a good result but he’s not been great all year since his operation. He needs to find a contract though so who knows.

Team Sunweb – Another squad who seem to be lacking in big hitters. Kelderman would be one to consider but given his lack of racing and only recent return from a crash, it is hard to know where his form is at. Geschke might be able to spring a surprise but again it is tough to see him break onto the podium.

The Rule Breakers

There are of course some riders who break the rule.

Victor Campenaerts.

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Able to retain his European crown, Campenaerts then produced a good time in the BinckBank TT a few days later, only to be blown away by Küng that afternoon. A powerful rider, he should be able to cope with the short climb but it won’t be too his liking as much as others. However, we did see in the opening Giro TT that he can roll with the punches so will be there or thereabouts at the finish.

Jose Goncalves.

How could I not mention #GoOnCalves?! If you’ve followed the previews for a while then you’ll know I’m a big fan of the Katusha man. It was back in the 2015 Vuelta that he really sprung onto the scene when riding for Caja Rural. He’s a very punchy rider and has a lot of raw power. I say “raw” as he often doesn’t have the best tactical brain (partly why I like him) but that doesn’t matter in a TT. He’s improved a lot in the discipline this year with a 4th place in the opener at the Giro the highlight. Would it be a surprise if he was up in the top 5? I’d definitely say no!

Prediction

I’ve lead you on a long merry-go-round only to end up with saying Dennis as my pick. The best short TT rider in the World wins, simple!

I expect Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski to be close for Sky, with Campenerts and Goncalves also in the mix as well.

Betting

I’ve lumped on Dennis before and I would maybe consider doing it again but can’t bring myself to do it. The Castroviejo or Goncalves top 3 angles are interesting, in fact, I have a couple of quid on the latter at 100/1 but that price has gone now. Don’t think I’d take him at his current 20/1 and Castroviejo is too short for the top 3 at 9/4 IMO.

I have found an angle I like though and it is probably only available to some so it will be a no bet for most.

Unibet have a H2H market and I really like the Castroviejo v Boom one they have. The Spaniard is 1/2 to win it and that is a price I will happily take.

No 30pters here but 5pts will do…

Thanks as always for reading! Who do you think will win on the opening day? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Vuelta a España 2018 GC Preview

Vuelta a España 2018 GC Preview

It doesn’t seem that long ago that I was settling down to write about the Giro, yet here we are three and half months later and it is time to talk about the final GT of the year: the Vuelta. Or “Spain 2018”, depends what I’m allowed to say really…

Last year’s edition of the race saw a dominant Chris Froome take the red leader’s jersey on stage 3 and hold it all the way to Madrid.

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He had a couple of nervy moments but never really looked in that much trouble, ultimately beating Nibali by 2’15 with Zakarin 2’51 behind in third place. Froome isn’t here to defend his title this year but we do have three former champions in the shape of Nibali, Aru and Valverde on the start list. However, there is plenty of talent at the race looking to take their maiden Vuelta, or even Grand Tour in general, win.

As always, I’ll be doing daily stage previews I’m just going to gloss over the route completely really. There will be plenty of others who look at key stages etc so I don’t want to bore you with that again!

The Bookmaker’s Favourite

Richie Porte.

The BMC rider arrives at this race after once again failing to complete a Grand Tour without incident; crashing out of the Tour was his downfall again this year. He’s openly admitted that his form is not as good as pre-Tour so he will hope to ride himself into the race and go from there. In fact, he’s not raced since that crash so it will be very interesting to see how he copes in the opening week where there are a few summit finishes. He is the best climber in this race when on form, it is just a question if he is near that level now? I don’t think so, but I’m willing to be proved wrong. There is also then the cloud that looms over his head of Porte not being able to complete a GT without a bad day. It’s happened too many times for it to be classed as “just bad luck” and it will once again be the undoing of him this race. I think we’ll see him here to gain some miles on the clock and re-find his good condition before having a tilt at the Worlds in Innsbruck.

The Main Challengers

Simon Yates.

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Super strong in the opening two-weeks of the Giro, there was no one able to match him on the climbs. However, he cracked massively and his tumble-down the order was dramatic: losing 1 hour and 15 minutes over two stages. He’s back here to have another tilt at GC along with his brother Adam who provides another option for the team, although it has to be said, after a poor Tour from him it will be interesting to see how he bounces back. Simon is their main guy for GC and if he can repeat the form he had in those opening two weeks at the Giro over the three weeks here then he has to start as the favourite. I think both he and the team will have learnt a lot from that experience, gaining a lot both physically and mentally. Although if we see them chasing down every break in the first week – then maybe they haven’t!

Nairo Quintana.

We caught a glimpse of the old Nairo returning at the Tour when he took a rather spectacular stage win on the Col du Portet. However, that was only short-lived after a crash the following day saw him ship a lot of time over the coming stages and he slipped down the order to finish in 10th place overall. If he has recovered from that fall then he should be one of the main contenders for the race. Back in 2016 when he won the Vuelta his third week peak in the Tour was very similar to what this year’s *could* have been. I do expect him to go well this race, but it will once again be a case of him trying to avoid any silly time losses in the opening week before they even get to the mountains proper.

Miguel Angel Lopez.

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A third place finish at the Giro and the young rider’s jersey to boot, this will the Astana man’s first attempt riding, let along being competitive, at two Grand Tours in a season. Theoretically the course is good for him, with lots of summit finishes where he can show his climbing prowess. His recent performance in Burgos was a good indicator that his form is on the up, where he got a stage win but ultimately finished behind a flying Sosa on GC. The long TT isn’t ideal for him and he will definitely ship some time there. Also, he seems like a rider who suffers one bad day in a GT – so will he be able to recoup the TT and bad day losses over the rest of the climbing days? I’m not so sure but he will be there or thereabouts.

The Podium Contenders.

With such an open race, there are several guys who will rate their chances of making the GC podium come the end of the three weeks in Madrid.

Alejandro Valverde – After performing a good supporting role for his team-mates in France, this will be the Grand Tour where Valverde gets his chance to shine. He probably enters the race as co-leader with Quintana and they will see how things pan out throughout the race. There are plenty of opportunities for him to pick up bonus seconds but some of the tougher finish climbs might worry him. Nonetheless, this is Spain and we are in Valverde territory so he can’t be discounted. Will having one eye on the Worlds detract from his performance? I don’t think so.

Rigobero Uran – Disappointing in the Tour before abandoning the race, he arrives here with only San Sebastian in his legs since then. At that race though he did look fairly strong for someone who dropped out of the Tour but will he have been able to re-find that form? If he’s on or close to his 2017 Tour level then he has a very good chance of winning this race.

Fabio Aru – One of the enigmas of Grand Tour cycling, Aru only seems to ever really turn up at the for the big events and even then he’s struggled since 2015 with consistency. His implosion at the Giro was pretty dramatic but even before then he wasn’t really in the fight for the title and found himself sitting 5’33 down on Yates. He does seem to go well in Spain though and he certainly seems more “chipper” on social media which to be indicates that he is in a good place – maybe the results will follow and we’ll see 2015 Fabio again?

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David De La Cruz – Sky’s GC man for this race, it was here that he had a breakthrough performance in 2016 when he finished in 7th. At the start of the year he was in good form but he lost the opportunity to chase his own results in races such as the Giro and Tirreno. However, a recent third place in Burgos shows that he is slowly riding himself back into form for the Vuelta. Will we see an attacking Sky for once with Henao and Kwiatkowski also possible outsiders for a good result.

George Bennett – My favourite outsider for the race, I have been really impressed with the Kiwi’s development this year. He had a solid Giro where he finished 8th overall but the Vuelta on paper has the parcours that suits him a lot better. Recently in Poland he was by far the strongest on the short few kilometre climbs and it was just a shame for him that they weren’t just a little bit longer so that he could definitely drop everyone. I did question his tactics on pulling during that final day, but maybe he’ll cash in that favour from Kwiatkowski at some point here? The TT will see him lose a good bit of time but as an attacking rider I think he can gain it back elsewhere.

Ilnur Zakarin – After a successful Giro (5th) / Vuelta (3rd) attempt in 2017, this will be the Katusha riders first effort at the Tour/Vuelta combination. A little bit like Quintana, although not as evident, Zakarin seemed to grow into the Tour in the final week and find some good legs in the closing stages. The number of mountain finishes will be great news for him as it means he can avoid descending to the finish line!

The “Unknowns”

Those with questionable/unkown form or riders that have their sights elsewhere…

Wilco Kelderman – His 4th place last year was his second “breakthrough” GC performance after his 7th in the Giro back in 2014. He was strong in his comeback race in Suisse but he was meant to go to the Tour to support Dumoulin but crashed in training and missed the race. That has resulted in his preparations for here being a bit rushed so no one really has any idea of how he will go. Given what we saw last year, he has to be considered a contender if the form is there. He will love the long TT.

Vincenzo Nibali – Unjustly forced to abandon the Tour after he was taken out by a spectator, he says that his current shape is miles off where it needs to be. I kind of believe him but this is Nibali after all and if he has a chance of winning the race in the final week, he’ll turn up. However, I do think this is all just preparation for the Worlds at which he has a serious chance of winning.

Richard Carapaz – One of the standout performances at the Giro where he took a very impressive 4th place on GC. Will he be here to help Quintana and Valverde, or will he get another chance to chase glory? Who knows!

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Thibaut Pinot – Another who completely capitulated at the Giro, he looked good on his return to racing in Poland earlier in the month. I see a lot of people are touting him for success here and given the field, he is one of the riders with a solid pedigree. However, my main concern with him for this race is the heat: he notoriously struggles in the warm weather and the opening week looks like it will be typical Spanish August weather. So a with a return to an old blog favourite, take it away Simon…

its a no

Mas, Buchmann and Ion Izagirre all fall into the same category for me of “solid top 10 potential but I struggle to see them fighting for anything further up the order”. A stage win and a top 10 would be a good result for them!

I think I’ve covered everyone, there are certainly plenty of guys to cover…

Prediction

Is this the most open Grand Tour we’ve seen in recent memory? I think so. We could be in for some surprises over the coming few weeks as teams and riders battle for control. As for who will win? I’m not overly confident in choosing any of the contenders as a clear candidate so I’ll stick to tradition in this situation and go for someone slightly left-field…

George Bennett to take home the title!

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Both he and his team have looked lively over the past couple of weeks and I think they will continue that form into the Vuelta.

Betting

I’m not normally one to make many antepost bets but the odds of 50/1 on offer a few days ago were too good to pass up.

Bennett is still available at 40/1 in some places but I would even accept the 33/1 that is common.

1pt EW Bennett at 50/1 (take the 33/1).

As for other antepost markets, I made a short KOM thread on my twitter yesterday and pointed to two potential candidates for that: Nick Schultz (300/1) and Thomas de Gendt (14/1), but both of their prices have dropped dramatically – now 80/1 and 9/1 respectively, I think TDG is still back-able at that price, Schultz not so much.

Likewise, for the points jersey I fancy Kwiatkowski (33/1) to go well but that price has shortened to 16/1 with Bet365. However, he is still available at those same odds with Ladbrokes/Coral.

Thanks for reading as always. Who do you think will win the race overall and why? I shall be back with my stage 1 preview on Friday evening so hope to see you then! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.