Tag: Stage 2

Dauphiné Stage 2: Crêches-sur-Saône – Chalmazal-Jeansagnière

Today’s Recap

The end is nigh, a correct blog prediction and a full house at that!

Bouhanni wasn’t the one doing all of the fighting today, with his sprint train locking-heads with the Katusha boys. A bit too forceful some might say and to be honest I have to agree. Bouhanni himself put in few well-placed head nudges to Kristoff but still lost the battle for the wheel.

In the final few hundred metres, Kristoff got chopped off by Bennett who veered across him a little bit. Bouhanni then launched from behind the Irishman and he was never going to be beaten from there. Cruising home for the win.

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Bennett held on for third, winning the match bet against Hofland. A good start to the road stages after hitting the post and crossbar in the prologue. Enough about today, let’s look ahead to tomorrow’s stage!

The Route

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A lumpy rolling day with a hill-top finish.

This stage finale has all the ingredients for an exciting end to the day, with the first hill-top finish. A lot of riders will fancy themselves on this type of finish.

As per usual, a break can expected to get away early and be controlled by Tinkoff. We’ll then see some other teams offer one rider in support and the break will be caught either at the bottom or somewhere on the ascent of the final Cat 2 climb.

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As you can see, these aren’t the toughest climbs in the world, with low average gradients and long false flats. There are a few steeper ramps but these never go above 9%. A lot of riders will fancy themselves to hold on. The only thing that will deter a few is that the final kilometre is the steepest. Once over the crest we get a few hundred metres of false-flat/shallow descent.

The Weather

After having very pleasant conditions today, the riders will have a much worse day tomorrow with thunderstorms and showers predicted for the end of the stage.

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How will the stage pan out?

As I’ve alluded to above, this stage should be very interesting due to the different possible outcomes. Will any of the sprinters survive? Will it be a sprint of Ardenne-specialists/punchy riders? Or will someone make a well-time attack in the finale?

As lots of riders will fancy their chances here, so I’m only going to name a few for each situation.

The first of these is a bit far-fetched, but stranger things have happened. Bouhanni has shown before that he can climb will. His 5th place on stage 13 of the 2014 Vuelta is a great example of that. If John Degenkolb was at full-fitness then this stage would suit him perfectly. I’m interested to see how Sondre Holst Enger goes here. He climbed exceptionally well at the Tour of Norway and packs a mean kick after a tough day. Has he been able to continue his form?

EBH, GVA and Gasparotto and co will all fancy their chances in a sprint up the final kicker. The only difficulty is that if these type of riders attack, I can’t see them distancing anyone. This is due to the climb not being severe enough in gradient to put their competitiors in difficulty. Therefore their best chance is that they get team-mates to mark attacks, hope that the proper fast men are dropped and compete in a reduced bunch sprint. I also like the look of Impey, he seems to be in better form than Gerrans. Although, I’d say EBH is the fastest of those who will be left in that case.

As much as saying above, that a late attack won’t work. It will from the correct rider. This could happen on the false flat before the final kicker, or on the ramp itself. For a rider to get away they’ll have to be from the right team, i.e. with a back-up plan behind, and strong enough to get away. They also have to be able to climb reasonably well to hold of the chasing pack. Look to riders who put in a relatively good TT. Coppel, Cummings and Dennis are examples. The Australian would be my pick! In fact, the whole of the BMC team put in great TT performances.

Watch out for Brent Bookwalter. He’s a favourite rider of mine, a super strong domestique who can sprint and TT. He might get let of the leash and not have to work for GVA.

Prediction

After there being an obvious selection for today there isn’t one for tomorrow. To narrow it down to one rider is incredibly difficult but I’ll stick my neck out on the line. Rohan Dennis will be sent off as a move to bait out other teams to work so that GVA will have an arm-chair ride behind. A combination of disorganisation and Dennis’ strength will see him hold on for a memorable win!

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If you all could listen to this, then that’d be great 😉

Betting

A day for small stakes. Sit back and enjoy the action unfold. I’m covering a few options here!

Dennis 0.2pt EW @ 150/1 with Betfair

Holst Enger 0.1pt EW 125/1 with Betfair.

Coppel 0.1pt EW 250/1 with Paddy Power.

 

Hope you enjoyed the preview as usual and enjoy the stage wherever you’re watching it from tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro stage 2: Arnhem – Nijmegen

Today’s Recap

Well that was exciting! For a long time our pick Ludvigsson was sat in the hot seat, and opinion seemed to change throughout the day if he’d actually survive or not. It seemed over when riders such as Wellens went fastest at the intermediate check-point, but then they faded in the second half. A glimmer of hope and I thought I’d landed a major coup for the blog.

However, the dream was over just as Eurosport cut back from a commercial break and Primoz Roglic (of all people?!)  trounced his time by 8 seconds. Only 2 more riders could beat big T, with Amador finishing 3rd (2 seconds ahead) and the favourite Tom Dumoulin edging Roglic by under half a second to take the stage win and in turn the Maglia Rosa which he’ll hope to defend, and most likely should, on tomorrow’s stage.

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The Route

Flat. Pretty much.

There is the one KOM point so that the jersey can be presented at the end of the stage, but apart from that there is nothing major to note and the route shouldn’t be testing for the riders.

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Route Map
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Profile

The finish itself isn’t very technical, with just one swooping right hand turn after the 1km to go sign. It is almost a 90 degree turn, but it’s curved so should be taken at about 80% speed.

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Weather Watch

Another beautiful day in the Netherlands, with it being incredibly unlikely that there will be any rainfall.

One thing that this part of the world is infamous for however, is the crosswinds that can cause havoc during a race. Stage 3 looks more likely at this moment in time to have them, but there is a chance tomorrow. The reason I say this is that according to Windfinder.com  the wind is coming from a South-SouthEast direction near Nijmegen. Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 19.34.07

If you look at the route-map above, this could affect the section between Wijchen and Nijmegen, where the wind would be coming directly across the riders for several sections. The wind speed isn’t that high, but if one or two of the teams felt strong, they could certainly try to put others in difficulty. However, in a 3-week long GT then it’ll take a brave team to try something so early. Maybe one of the sprint teams or a strong GC team (I’m looking at you Astana).

If we don’t get any crosswind action then I reckon the race will be a pretty dull affair until we get to the final 20km and the main sprint teams come to the fore.

The Winner

Marcel Kittel has to start as the outright favourite here for this stage and will be many people’s pick and I can’t fault their logic. He has his usual solid lead-out that his brought him success in the early part of the season and he is on amazing form. I’ll say this now, everyone else here is fighting for second-place.

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The Best of the Rest

Below Kittel we have a whole host of riders who will fancy their chances here and the list is quite exhaustive. We have the old guard in the shape of Greipel; the Italian triple threat with Nizzolo, Modolo, Viviani; new kids on the block Ewan and Mareckzo; and the unclassified such as Pelucchi, Hofland, Demare, Ruffoni and Arndt.

Hofland (24th) and Nizzolo (27th) both put in good efforts in the TT today. Was that a show of strength? Or was Mareckzo’s approach of finishing last the best way to do it, conserving some energy for tomorrow.

I would have to go with the former. An 11-minute effort isn’t going to take much out of these guys so it’s nice to see some of these sprinters give it a go in a TT that was supposed to be too long for them. Tell that to Kittel!

I could focus a while going through all of the sprint trains here, but that would be long-winded and I guarantee there will be others who will do it better. So I’ll save the hassle to them and skip straight to the prediction.

Prediction

As I said above, there will almost two races going on here. One will be an Etixx team effort to get Kittel to the front safely and for him to romp home and take the victory. The other will be the chaos that’s left in their wake, with riders battling it out for the podium spots.

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Again, I can make arguments for a lot of these sprinters to come home in the top 3. But in the first road stage of a Grand Tour, where it’s usually a frenetic and chaotic affair, then fretting over small details doesn’t make that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. It’s sometimes just better to go with gut and there’s one rider who for some strange reason I’m drawn to: Moreno Hofland.

As I said in my points preview, I think he’s a very fast rider who’s just lost his way recently. His TT performance today was very good, and the Lotto Jumbo team are performing well. He doesn’t have the best of lead-outs in terms of a traditional sprint train, but as was proven today, they are all exceptionally good TTers and they should be able to bring him to the front safely. If the wind does kick up, then they are the perfect team to try and cause some havoc, because they’re local to the area and will know the roads exceptionally well. Furthermore, the team and Moreno himself will be incredibly motivated because of the Dutch start to the race. They won’t go down without a fight, and it would be a major coup for them to get a GT stage win in their home country. You never know, he might end up beating that fantastically-haired German!

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 Betting

As much as I think Kittel will win this stage, I never back a rider that is odds on (i.e. less than evens) because it’s too risky. He could crash or puncture right at the end etc, there are too many environmental variables that make it not worth it. Plus, to get a good return then you have to risk a lot. It’s weird, considering I would back a H2H that’s less than evens but that’s a story for another day!

It’s quite disappointing to see that Hofland isn’t priced up by all of the bookies. Although, at the time of writing this, not many of them have prices up. Only B365, SkyBet, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betway do. From those sites B365 (20/1), PP (40/1) and Ladbrokes (22/1) have Hofland priced up. I would say the 40/1 is great EW value, but I wouldn’t go any lower than the 20/1 that Bet365 offer.

In a race where you’re pretty much betting on 2nd place and with it being the first sprint stage, I would again advise to keep the stakes relatively low!

If I see any H2H’s that I like then I’ll post them on my Twitter later this evening.

Congrats if you made it this far, again, any feedback would be appreciated 🙂  I’ll be back with a St3 preview tomorrow, let’s hope it’s on the back of a good result. Enjoy the racing wherever you are watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth

(P.S. If everyone could do a wind dance, then that’d be great!)