Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 Preview; Rovett -> Bormio


My hopes were raised when I woke up to see Molard in the break, but they were quickly diminished when I saw Orica chasing and the small gap that they had!

Things were eventually brought to heel just as the peloton entered the final 3km and we were treated to a small flurry of attacks from the GC favourites. However, it came down to a very fast sprint and Jungels came out victorious.


I wonder if he had that massive chain-ring on again?!

Quintana of all people got up for second, with Pinot third.

Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders after the final rest day.

The Route

I imagine some riders wish they could have the rest of the week off looking at the profiles and the action all kicks off tomorrow.

Not exactly an easy day for the riders to ease themselves back into racing after the rest day, with 222km ahead of them and three massive mountains that all go above 1800m.


The riders start with a nice bit of descending before the road gradually rises for the next 60km before they start the climb of the Mortirolo officially.


12.6km at 7.6% average, the climb will certainly be a leg opener for the peloton. It *probably* comes too early in the stage to be of any real significance for the day, but you just never know! Expect those who are after KOM points to be battling it out here.

Once over the top, the riders will face a 14km descent before they start the approach towards the Stelvio. Again, the road rises for those 30km but the climb officially begins with just over 100km to go.


21.7km at 7.1%, the passage also acts as the Cima Coppi for the race. A brutally tough and draining climb, the steep pitches in the final few kilometres look great for an attack from the bunch.

A long descent follows before the peloton re-climbs the Stelvio but this time from the Swiss side. The first time this has ever been done in the Giro!


13.4km at 8.4%, the organisers have cruelly left the toughest climb of the day until the end. With very little respite, a rider on the limit can lose a massive amount of time here if they go too far into the red and pop.

The race then ends with a descent into Bormio.


Almost as important as the climb, a rider can lose a lot of time here if they aren’t fully switched on because they’re tired from their previous efforts. With how technical the closing few kilometres are, let’s just hope a rider arrives solo or a group of three at most!

Weather Watch

Many of you will have memories of that stage back in 2014 when the Stelvio was covered in snow and Quintana didn’t see that the race was being neutralised…

Thankfully, the weather doesn’t look that bad this year.

Screen Shot 2017-05-22 at 17.48.51
Source: Wunderground

The forecast for Bormio suggests that it will be a relatively pleasant day in the saddle with only a small chance of rain. However, as we know, this can change pretty quickly, especially in the mountains!

With the wind coming from the North, it will be a slight headwind for the traditional passage of the Stelvio, before being a tailwind for the Swiss ascent.

How will the stage pan out?

This is a tough one to predict on the best of days but it is made even more difficult after the rest day. Some riders might come out firing, whereas others might take a few climbs to get going!

It really depends on the composition of the morning break as to the size of an advantage the move can get. There are lots of riders way down on GC who will be given plenty of freedom. Even someone like Rui Costa who is 16 minutes behind in 17th place might get some leeway. However, if a rider such as Ben Hermans infiltrates the move, then a few other teams might start riding defensively to protect their top 10 position.

I imagine teams will be very keen to get riders up the road for later in the day so we could see a large breakaway of 20 guys or so. The issue is the amount of flat at the start of the stage which makes it more difficult for climbers to be there.

Ultimately though, it depends on Movistar’s attitude to the stage. They need to take a few minutes out of Dumoulin and I’m very intrigued to see how they approach that job. No doubt they’ll get someone ahead of the peloton to work for Quintana later, but when will the Colombian attack? Most likely near the top of the Stelvio I think.

Will the gap to the break be too big for the Colombian to win the stage after then, quite possibly and like always, I’m leaning towards that being the case.

What Sunweb need to do in my opinion is completely sit up when the break goes so that it gets a huge advantage of 10mins plus so that it becomes nigh on impossible for Quintana to attack and bridge to his team-mates, or any other GC rider for that matter. Play their contenders at their own game, and just trust Dumoulin to be able to follow his competitors’ wheels.

So once again, I think we’ll see a race on two fronts with the breakaway taking stage honours and a massive GC battle behind.

Breakaway Candidates

There will obviously be riders chasing the KOM jersey who try to get into the move, such as Fraile, Rolland and Landa, but I’m going to take a slightly different approach.

With the GC teams wanting to get riders up the road, we should see a few strong climbers from the big teams represented. If Sunweb are then ballsy enough to not properly chase, then a few of those riders might be given the chance to go for stage honours rather than be told to sit up and help their leader.

Winner Anacona.


The Colombian seems to be in better form than Amador at the moment and I think would be more of an aid to Quintana than the Costa Rican. However, if the gap is too big for Quintana to bridge, then Anacona could be given the green light to go for the stage. He is in exceptional form at the moment and I think that there won’t be many riders capable of beating him.

Sebastien Reichenbach.

Another left-hand man for a GC contender, the Swiss rider has had a very solid race so far in aid of Pinot, often being one of the last domestiques standing amongst the GC guys. He seems to be slowly finding some form this race, building for a big last week. With the stage crossing into his home country, I’m sure he’d like to put on a show!

Carlos Verona.

The Spaniard has been mostly anonymous so far this Giro, but he showed on the front on the previous stage, doing a lot of work for Yates. He’s another rider who seems to building some form nicely. A very strong climber, he should like tomorrow’s terrain and could well take the day. With Yates not too close to the head of the GC order, I think Orica will be happy to let Verona or Plaza go for the stage with the Brit doing what he can behind.

Joe Dombrowski.


Third week of a Grand Tour so time to start backing the American again! One of the strongest riders in the peloton going by numbers, he still has to master some racing craft. Nonetheless, if he gets into the break it will be tough for a lot of riders to follow him on the climbs.

GC Contenders

It is hard to see past Quintana for this. Although I am bitterly aware I said that on the finish to Oropa! Nonetheless, when considering the altitude the riders will be over, it really does benefit the Colombian over the likes of Dumoulin.

The Dutchman has been strong so far but this is his acid test. If he comes through the day relatively unscathed, losing roughly a minute, he will be very confident of taking the Giro overall.

As for the other contenders, who knows! Nibali always goes well in the final week and after his bad day on Oropa, you would expect Pinot to hopefully bounce back here on a stage with a lot more climbing that is suited to him. Zakarin is also looking strong and will hope to cement his podium charge.


I think the break will build up a big enough gap to take the stage honours, it is a 222km long day after all so the GC teams won’t want to go too crazy early on.

I say hesitantly before we get a full gas stage from the start and half the peloton OTL.

Nonetheless, with a few strong climbers up the road and a couple of GC riders cracking behind, I think we’ll see a good climbing domestique take the win. Reichenbach to take the day after the stage goes through his home country!



Small stakes on the breakaway punts as it’s too risky to be backing Quintana for the stage.

0.5pt WIN on them, all with Bet365 as well (although also available with PP/BF);

Reichenbach @ 125/1

Anacona @ 125/1

Dombrowski @ 150/1

Verona @ 250/1

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated as normal! Who do you think will win? Will we see a breakaway make it all the way to the line, or will a GC rider take the stage? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.





Giro stage 16: Bressanone – Brixen Andalo

Rest-day Recap

Well, lets start of with stage 15 and a very unexpected winner: Alexander Foliforov. I did not see that coming! Although from early on, it looked like his time was a good one and we saw GC rider after GC rider fail to beat it. Kruijswijk came agonisingly close, losing out by under a second.


Our man Chaves finished in 6th, not good enough for a winner, but good enough to move him up to 2nd on GC. Nibali seemed to be struggling and also had mechanical problems, costing him even more time, dropping him down to 3rd on GC.

I’m not going to slander or accuse Foliforov here, I’ll let the young man enjoy his win and if something gets revealed later then…


The TT leaves the GC in a position I don’t think many expected going into the final week. Kruijswijk first with a healthy lead over Chaves and Nibali. It will be interesting to see how his LottoJumbo team manages. They don’t have the star riders that Astana or Movistar have, with Roglic and Battaglin as his two main support riders. So I fear that Kruijswijk could become isolated quite quickly in some of the stages. However, he’s been in that situation all Giro and coped okay until now, but it is a different task having to do all the chasing by yourself!

Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 13.30.59
Top 20 on GC after the TT

The final week, especially the latter stages, should be very exciting as everyone has to try to gain back time, therefore we should see some attacking riding. Some co-operation between those behind to isolate Krujswijk will no doubt happen.

Before we get to that point, let’s talk about tomorrow’s stage.

The Route

After the rest-day the riders will be greeted with a stage profile that they’ll look at with trepidation. At only 132km long and categorised as 3-star in difficulty it doesn’t, on paper at least, appear too bad.

Stage Profile


However, it will no doubt be a very fast day as a lot of the riders will want to get in the break because that seems the most likely outcome for a stage winner. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the break finally get away after the 50km mark. That is of course unless everyone is tired from the past few days and a group gets away early. LottoJumbo would love that!

Furthermore, as I said after the last rest-day, the riders won’t know how their bodies will react. Landa was the major casualty of a rest-day bug that he picked up!

Anyway, onto the actual route itself.

The first climb, Passo della Mendola is 14.8km long averaging 6.6% with a 10% max ramp.


This climb isn’t too tough for the riders, but if the GC guys decide to try to isolate Kruijswijk early then we could be in for some major rider implosions. However, I think we’ll more than likely see our BOTD build up a substantial lead here.

After Mendelpass we get a long, slightly lumpy, descent before reaching the penultimate climb of the day: Fai della Paganella.


Another Cat-2, but this one is a lot more testy. Officially, it is 10.2km long averaging 7.4%, with a max ramp of 15%. However, the average gradient is a bit skewed because of a false flat section that we have for around 1.5km. Therefore, the average gradient on the first part of the climb is closer to 8%. That steep ramp at the end could be a launchpad for some late attacks.

Once over the climb we have a fast descent before the final kick up to the line.


“The final 10 km are clearly divided into two halves: first a fast-running descent (4 km) on wide roads with sharp downhill gradients, then a mild climb (6 km), growing steeper, up to 2 km from the finish. Next comes a false-flat uphill drag. The finish line lies on an 80-m long and 7.0-m wide asphalt home stretch, running gently uphill.” (Road Book extract)

If there is a group of riders together by this point, expect attacks on the final climb. Unless of course if someone is confident of their sprinting ability then they’ll sit in and follow the moves.

How will the stage pan out?

As I’ve said above, I think this stage lends itself to a breakaway. Well, I’m 90% sure it does. The reason for this is that the climbs aren’t too tough for the GC guys to make any differences so I think they’ll keep their powder-dry for later stages.

However, there is a small chance that they go full-gas to isolate Kruijswijk, but I don’t see it. Or, the likes of Movistar and Lampre try to keep the race together in the hope that Valverde and Ulissi can sprint for the win, with a finish that looks to suit them.

Who are the breakaway contenders?

As said in earlier previews, the contenders have to be strong climbers if they want to win. Furthermore, they can’t be too close on GC. We now get into the stage of the race where riders and teams get very protective of their top 10 on GC. With the way the GC is set up, there is a big gap between 12th place (Uran – 8’19 behind) and 13th place (Visconti – 16’31), so it is unlikely we’ll see the likes of Dimension Data chasing if Visconti or Pirazzi get away. However, if the gap to the break gets too high then they’ll have to!

Like before, I’m not going to list all of the options for a break as I could be here for a long time! Instead, I’m going to highlight 3 riders who might give it a go.

  • Joe Dombrowski. –  Uran’s lieutenant could be given the freedom to go in the break here, with the stage not set to be a GC battle and with Uran going in the wrong direction in terms of the classification. Dombrowski seems to be riding into the race very well and put in a good performance in the TT, finishing 8th. He was one of the fastest up the Passo Giau according to Strava on stage 14, so is clearly going well. Furthermore, he is known to be one of the biggest engines in the peloton in terms of numbers and watts that he can put out. That’s why Team Sky signed him up back in 2013. However, he didn’t fit into their style of riding so has ended up at the more quirky Cannondale, where he slowly seems to be finding his feet. If he makes the break then he’s a very dangerous candidate.


  • Ian Boswell. – Another American who could go well in tomorrow’s stage. I’ve highlighted him for the break in a preview earlier in the race but he didn’t manage to get into the break that day. Like Dombrowski, he put in a solid TT, finishing 15th overall so he has some form. He’s not been active at all with his highest finishing position on a stage (aside from the TT) being 44th on stage 4. Saving energy for later in the race? I think the TT was a test of his form and he’ll be happy with the result he achieved and will be confident going into this week. Finishing 3rd in a Vuelta stage from a breakaway last year (behind Landa and Aru), highlights that he has the abilities to go well here.


And finally, my favourite of the three picks (purely for its reasoning)…

  • Merhawi Kudus. – The young Eritrean has been touted for great things in the future by his team Dimension Data. He finished 6th on the Green Mountain back at the start of the season and in 2014 he came 2nd on GC at the Tour of Langkawi beating a certain Esteban Chaves (4th) and Steven Kruijswijk (7th). Clearly, he is a very talented cyclist. Like those listed above, he’s failed to excite anyone at this Giro sitting 44th on GC, over an hour down on Kruijswijk. Saving energy maybe? What for, you say?

Well, do you remember what happened on Mandela Day at the Tour last year?…

Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 14.44.06

Could his soft-pedalling at the Giro all be a ruse, so that he can make it in the break tomorrow? I hope so and no doubt the Eritrean cycling fans would love that too!

Special mention must go to Johan Van Zyl or “The Snail” as he’s otherwise known. The 24th of May is also National Escargot Day so he, as a breakaway expert, might find himself in the break. Although I fear that the climbs will be too tough for him to hold on and take a win.


As I said above, I think tomorrow is a breakaway day!

We’ll see a hotly contested battle from the majority of the peloton to try to get into the move that stays away. This involves a certain element of luck,but persistence also pays off.

After dissuading myself from backing Dumoulin at the start of the Giro because everything would be “too Disney”, I’m making a complete U-turn on that principle (mainly because I’m in a good mood) and we’ll get our Eritrean winner on Eritrean Independence day. Merhawi Kudus takes the stage, and everyone lives happily ever after…



A day not to get overly involved with, pick a few breakaway lottery selections for fun. I’m just going for the 3 I’ve mentioned above.

Dombrowski 0.3pts @66/1 with PP. I’d take the 50 available at Coral. (He is also available at 40s on the Betfair Exchange – that’s as low as I’d go)

Boswell 0.3pts @100/1 with PP. I’d take the 50-66/1 available with others.

Kudus 0.1pts @150/1 with PP or 125/1 with B365. This price was only available when I tweeted it out, but I’m including it because I tweeted it out. I would still put a little stake on him at 66/1 you can get with Betfair Sportsbook.

You might find that these guys will be priced more favourable on the BF Exchange so keep your eyes peeled.

I’ll probably tweet something out in-play if none of the above make it into the break. After all, in-play is King.


Hope you enjoyed this preview. It was a bit more long-winded this time but that’s because I felt I had more to say. Again, any RTs, Likes, or general discussion Twitter would be great. I hope we get an entertaining stage tomorrow! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.