Tag: stage 10

Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 Preview; Foligno -> Montefalco

Rest-Day Recap

Quintana won the stage on Blockhaus after a very impressive display, but almost equally impressive were Pinot and Dumoulin who only shipped 24 seconds to him on the day. I’m sure the Colombian won’t be as pleased with that outcome as he is in the picture below!

C_zKh6ZWsAEL3Qm

As for the motorbike incident that has been a talking point for the last day here are, erm, My Two Spokes Worth.

The bike should obviously have never been pulled over in that place, heck, even if it was pulled over further ahead to give the riders time to adjust, considering it was pulled up roughly 100m after a bend. It seems to be far too regular occurrence in cycling nowadays but as Brian Smith said on Eurosport, organisers and governing bodies can’t keep saying, “something needs to be done”, they need to actually take action. I’m sure the motorbike driver will be well aware of the outcome and will no doubt feel pretty shit but this whole trial by social media isn’t going to help anything.

As for those saying Movistar should have waited: the race was on and they had been pulling for the past 30km. It wasn’t as if they suddenly came to the front when it happened to take advantage. If a majority of the field had come to grief then they might have stopped, but I see no issue with what they did. Should we see sprint trains stop as they approach the end of the race due to crashes caused by barriers that protrude onto the road?

Thankfully none of the riders were seriously injured, although Kelderman and Rosa were unfortunately DNFs because of it. Nonetheless, I’m sure it won’t be the last we’ll see of Thomas, Yates and company this race as they’ll possibly animate later stages.

Right, now that’s out the road, let’s have a look at what’s in store for the riders tomorrow.

The Route

A rolling 39.8km TT, but certainly not the most difficult in terms of climbing.

stage-10-profile-1-768x446

As is TT tradition, I’ve made the route on Strava that you can view here, for those of you that prefer a more interactive profile.

Screen Shot 2017-05-15 at 16.44.11

Interestingly, the organisers have tweaked the route ever so slightly since it was originally announced; making the first climb easier and removing a tricky second climb.

The riders will start with over 12km of flat as they leave Foligno before tackling the first climb on the route. Averaging 3.2% for 5.2kms, it should be a seated effort for most of the riders. However, it does go up in sections and there are some ramps of 6-7% so the change of gradient might catch a few riders out.

From there, the riders will continue along a plateau before another small kick up (900m at 4%) before a quick descent. The road then undulates for the following 10km with a few shallow rises but nothing too severe, before the riders start the drag to the line.

giro-ditalia-2017-stage-10-1493202951

According to the official profile it is a 5.75km rise averaging 2.17%, whereas my Strava profile indicates that it’s 4.8km long at 3%. Not a massive discrepancy but nonetheless there is a slight difference. Either way, it is a climb for the strongmen of the peloton who are able to put a lot of power down in the shallower gradients, especially when you consider it will be into a headwind!

The weather in Foligno has been a talking point today with there being severe thunderstorms…

However, it is supposed to be dry tomorrow and we should get even conditions for most of the riders. Will the roads have cleared up by then?

Contenders

With this type of course being suited to a more powerful rider, I think a few of the GC contenders (pure climbers), could lose a lot of time. Will that be to anyone else who’s in contention for the title though?

Well, Tom Dumoulin starts as the bookmakers favourite and it is understandable why. He looked exceptionally strong on Blockhaus and is clearly flying on the climbs right now. Will that translate to a good TT though? I’m not so sure. He’s been struggling recently with his time trial, and hasn’t looked great in them since his silver medal at the Olympics last year. Having lost a lot of weight to stay closer to the best on the climbs I think he might struggle on the flatter parcours tomorrow, which is reassuring actually! I am looking forward to seeing him in action though, he does look effortless on a TT bike.

sptdw2037_670 (1)

Bob Jungels will hope to recover some of the time he lost on Blockhaus tomorrow with a good performance. At last year’s Giro, he was comfortably the best GC rider in the atrocious conditions in Chianti, putting over a minute into Dumoulin. This type of route suits him very well as one of the more “heavy-set” GC riders. Exceptionally strong on the flat, windy stage 3 into Cagliari, I think he’ll podium tomorrow.

Vasil Kiryienka loves a long TT although he hasn’t really been able to show his strength since winning the World Championships in 2015. With Team Sky’s GC hopes looking less likely, I think they’ll give Kiryienka the nod to go full gas. He’ll eat up the flat and the climbs. Plus, his experience will be very valuable so that he paces himself well and doesn’t blow up on the final drag to the line.

Thibaut Pinot is a solid TTer and he will hope to take time over his GC rivals on this course, especially Quintana. He was up there on a similar style of course in Andalucia at the start of the year, although that stage was a 3rd of the distance. That is where my issue lies with him, he’s unproven over longer TTs. He won’t lose much time I don’t think, but he certainly won’t gain any over the likes of Jungels etc.

20160326152_20160326cil0049

Geraint Thomas will be hoping to bounce back with a good time tomorrow. One of the reasons I had backed him pre-race for the podium is because of the amount of TT kilometres in the race. This type of strong-mans course should suit him well, but will he suffer the same issues with weight that Dumoulin might?

Other GC names to throw into the hat are Amador and Zakarin who can both pull off a good TT on their day.

Away from the GC guys watch out for Lotto Jumbo pairing of Campenaerts and Van Emden, who will no doubt be going full gas to give Kruijswijk the best possible reference times. The same can be said for blog favourite Ludvigsson!

Prediction

Bold as ever, but I genuinely don’t think Dumoulin wins. He’s struggled in TTs since losing weight and I think there are riders here better equipped for this type of course, Jungels to name one.

However, I’m not going for him, instead I think Kiryienka will be let off the leash to have a proper go tomorrow.

Team-Sky-Pro-Cycling-Vasil-Kiryienka-time-trial-stage-14-winner-Giro-d-Italia-2015_0

It would be a great way for Sky to bounce back after what happened on Stage 9. The Belarusian is a brute of a rider and he’ll eat up any terrain that is in front of him. He is truly exceptional on the longer individual efforts!

Betting

Now the question is whether to play it “safe” and take him EW or just go for win only. Playing it safe means doubling the stake and doubling the potential loss if he just doesn’t bother trying at all. So from that perspective, I think I’ll just take him straight up with what I would put on as an EW bet but just put that stake on outright.

3pts WIN Kiryienka at 8/1 with Coral (would take down 7/1 available elsewhere)

Thanks as always for reading and any feedback is greatly appreciated. Who do you think will win tomorrow? Will there be large time gaps between the GC riders? Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

 

Giro stage 10: Campi Bisenzio – Sestola

Rest-day Recap

A rain affected ITT meant that those who went out first had the advantage for the stage. Roglic (2nd on Stage 1) managed to win, with Brandle and Stake Laengen rounding off the podium. Unfortunately for us, neither Oss nor Quinziato gave it a nudge and by the time Boaro started, the heavens had opened.

primoz-roglic-giro-ditalia-stage-nine_3467256

In terms of the GC contenders, the biggest gainer has to be Landa. He only lost 7 seconds to Nibali and actually gained time on Valverde. This was particularly surprising, considering most people (myself included) thought he’d lose at least 1:30 minutes. I was also pleasantly surprised with the Smiling Assasin’s (Chaves) time loss. He’s one of my favourite riders, so it’s good to see him not so far back! It leaves us with a nicely poised GC going into the second and third weeks.

Special mention has to go to the two Etixx boys; Jungels and Brambilla. The former put in a storming ride during less than pleasant conditions, finishing a very credible 6th place. You’d have to assume if the weather was the same for everyone then he’d have won the TT. It looked for a while that he was going into the Maglia Rosa. That was until the aforementioned Brambilla put in an equally brave ride, with a daredevil descent to hold onto the jersey by one second.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 16.46.39
GC after stage 9

Litte side note here.

As much as I’m not a fan of Zakarin’s past, I did feel sorry for him after Sunday. He looked to be absolutely gunning it but then the mechanicals and crashes took him out of it. A real shame, he’d have been up there in the top 3 on GC just now. At least it means we’ll get some attacking riding from him later in the race!

Anyway, onto stage 10.

The Route

A tough, tough day in the saddle! Up and down all day, with a summit finish. The riders won’t be looking forward to it, especially as some of them won’t respond well to being back in the saddle after the rest day.

Stage-1461666201

Three cat-3 and one cat-1 climbs makes this the hardest stage of the Giro so far. At 219km it’s not exactly a short stage either!

The Cat-1 climb up to Pian del Falco can be split into three parts.

Stage-1461666244.jpg

After a tough opening; 4.5km averaging 6.9%, we get an easier section of 7km averaging 1.8%, with an incredibly difficult finale, 4km at 8.9% with 13% ramps thrown in for good measure! Will we see some GC fireworks here?

“The final kilometres comprise a fast and technical descent that leads from the KOM summit to Fanano. The descent can be divided into two quite steep parts: the first one runs on large roads, with just a few bends, and leads into a second one where the road is narrower at points, and which twists and turns all the way up into urban Fanano. Next on the route is the final 7-km climb, with gradients of 5-6%, on a wide yet winding road that leads into the final 100-m long, uphill home straight, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road.” (Road book extract) 

The final climb itself isn’t the most testing in the World, not peaking anymore than 6%. The gradients are fairly consistent too so the riders can get into a nice rhythm.

S05_Valcava_3D

The real question is how many of them will be left to set a nice tempo?

Weather Watch

It looks like we’re set for another day of “will it, won’t it?” in terms of the rain. Some weather sites are suggesting that it won’t rain on the riders at the finish tomorrow, but the main consensus is that we’re in for another grim day.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 17.23.18
Weather forecast at the finish town (Sestola)

With the rainfall predicted near the finish line, it will make that fast and technical descent off of the Cat-1 even more difficult, and it will reward those riders willing to take risks.

Break or no break?

Normally I’d say this stage is 100% a breakaway day. However, with the GC margins being so small after the TT, we might see some teams try to control the break. Hoping that their GC challenger could snap up some bonus seconds on the line. Astana or Movistar are the two teams most likely to do this.

Therefore, I make it 70/30 that the break makes it.

Breakaway Contenders

Let’s look at who could get in the break first of all.

Like I said in one of the previous posts, to increase the likelihood of a successful break then it needs to have a few components: Italians, those far down on GC and riders from some GC teams. I’m sure I mentioned those things in the preview where Brambilla went on to win, throwing out the idea of those who are more than 10 minutes down on GC. However, that was a once off and normal service should be resumed here.

Davide Malacarne (Astana) was in the break the last time the stage finished in Sestola (in 2014). He fits all three of the categories so could be a potential rider to get away. It all depends on Astana’s tactics and if they want to go all mountain-train crazy like last year. Where they absolutely decimated the peloton. I think they’ll pass the buck to other teams and try to get a satellite rider in the break, in-case it looks as if it’s going to be brought back. Agnoli could also be a good candidate for them.

30d46b65e71c73fa5a9798b535fa864e.jpg
Malacarne (then riding for Europcar) finishing second in 2014

Movistar will no doubt try something similar too with Herrada or Betancur being the most likely options. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get Visconti in the break so that Etixx have to chase.

Apart from those two teams, expect the usual suspects: someone from your Italian ProConti teams, Wellens, De Marchi, Cunego, a Lampre rider etc.

It’s really hard to narrow down and decide who will give it a go. Another few names I’d like to throw around are:

  1. Matteo Busato – He’s been climbing well this year so far and packs a good up-hill sprint. Made it over with the first group on stage 4 (showing that form), but now is 19 minutes down. He should be given some leeway.
  2. Ian Boswell – Was in a tough breakaway at the Vuelta last year, held on for third on that stage behind Landa and Aru. 30 minutes down this race, if he gets the nod from Sky then he could go well.
  3. Georg Preidler – With TomDum not seeming his best and saying that he wants to lose time so that he can go stage hunting later in the race. It frees up someone in the Giant team to go on the attack. Preidler seems the best fit for tomorrow’s stage.

 

What if we get a GC battle royale?

Hopefully we’ll get lots of attacking if that’s the case. Riders further down GC will be given more freedom as Valverde/Nibali/Landa etc all mark each other.

I expect Zakarin, Chaves and Firsanov to try something.

All of this of course depends if: A) They make it over the Cat-1 in contact with the leaders and B) make it down the descent in contact.

With the type of finish that it is, Valverde is the rightful favourite. I would not be surprised though if they tried the old 1-2 and Amador actually attacked up the road. The same can be said for Nibali and Fuglsang.

Prediction

As you can probably tell, I’m once again struggling with this stage. So for an outright prediction them I’m going to have to go with the two situations again. From a GC group, I think Chaves will be able to get away on the final climb and take another Grand Tour stage win.

Chaves-wins-Vuelta-stage-two-by-Watson-630x420

However, as mentioned above, I think there’s a good chance that the break will make it. For that, my lucky ticket will be Matteo Busato. The Italian climbed expetionally well at Trentino and has continued the form here. With a fast up-hill sprint, if he hangs on to his fellow escapees wheels then he should pip them to the line.

***Also, it’s Sonny Colbrelli’s birthday tomorrow. So I’m hoping to see him involved at some point. It will take a lot of luck for him to win a stage like this!***

Betting

From a betting perspective, this stage is definitely a breakaway lottery selection. Followed by in-play on GC candidates tomorrow.

Backing some of those mentioned above.

0.1pt Malacarne @ 300/1 (PP)

0.1pt Agnoli @ 300/1 (PP)

0.2pt Boswell @ 200/1 (Boyles or PP).

0.3pt Busato @ 125/1 (Various)

0.3pt Preidler @ 80/1 (PP or Lads)

If you want to, then go EW. But for a breakaway stage like this, in my opinion it’s better to spread your options and just go for outright. If they look like they could win then you can always Lay your bet on the Betfair Exchange in-play.

I’ll be able to watch tomorrow’s stage fully so I’ll be making some in-play recommendations over on my Twitter @JamieHaughey.

Congrats if you made it this far, hopefully tomorrow’s stage will live up to expectations! Enjoy it wherever you’re watching it from! Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.