Tag: GC or breakaway

TDF Stage 15 Preview: Bourg-en-Bresse -> Culoz

Today’s Recap

Something happened and someone won a bike race.

I’m writing these previews (this one and stage 16) in advance and probably won’t be doing a daily recap. Just a heads up!

The Route

Oh my, what a route! A brutally tough day all packed in to 159km of racing.

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An awful lot of climbing metres, both categorised and uncategorised. 2 x Cat-3s, 1 x Cat-2, 2x Cat-1s, 1x Cat-HC.

The riders start on an uncategorised climb, followed by undulating roads before reaching the Cat-1, Col du Berthiand which is 6km at 8.1%. That is not how I like my eggs in the morning. If the pace is high here, which it might be if the break hasn’t formed, then we could be saying bye to the sprinters for the day.

A slight descent followed by an uncategorised 8km (roughly) drag. Looks to me to be about a 2.75% going off the scale. Again followed by a descent that leads us into our second categorised climb of the day the Col du Sappel. Being 8.8km in length with an average gradient of only 5.6% the riders will welcome it. I expect the breakaway will have formed by here so the peloton should be on a go slow to let any team-mates who were dropped back into the bunch. Looking at you Rowe and Stannard!

Once they make the crest there is a fast descent before they start climbing again. This time it’s the Cat-3 Col de Pisseloup. With a relatively shallow gradient (5.8% over 4.9km), it could be an aptly named climb for a nature break!

The stage then approaches the Intermediate Sprint point within the valley. We might see Sagan in the break and taking the points here, that would not surprise me! Almost straight after the sprint point the road starts climbing again and we have another relatively easy climb. The Col de la Rochette tops out at 1113m, with the climb itself being 5.1km in length and a 5.4% average gradient. Easiest climb of the day!

Again, the race descends and ascends in the valley before the HC climb of the Grand Colombier is tackled. This climb combines steepish gradients with a long distance to travel, coming in at 12.8km averaging 6.8%. After what has come before it, this will sting some legs. If we did have a regrouping of the peloton before, the race will really be on here. The sprinters will go out the back and that will be them for the day, a battle of survival to make the time cut. The climb is very irregular which suits some riders more than others, there are steep 14% sections, but false flats too. It will be hard for the riders to get into a proper rhythm.

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They then have a long descent and a ride through the finish line before tackling the Grand Colombier again, but this time it’s the Laces edition. Pretty much there will be a load of hairpin bends and the climb will look very picturesque. Doubt it will have anything on the Lacets de Montvernier though! This passage is shorter (8.6km) but steeper (averaging 7.6%). I expect there to be GC time gaps here, some riders might go pop.

There is a chance for them to regroup on the descent and flat to the finish line and we might see 5 GC guys come home together.

How will the stage pan out?

I think this stage 100% is a breakaway day. Sky/Froome have a comfortable lead over all the other contenders so can ride a more conservative and defensive race. Like I said above, they’ll be happy to let a break go (if there’s no one dangerous) so that the likes of Rowe and Stannard can make it back and do the majority of the work in the opening 2/3rds of the stage. They won’t be too bothered about the stage/bonus seconds going to the break so I think once again we’ll see a battle on two fronts.

Like usual I’ll name 3 potential riders who could win from a break.

Jarlinson Pantano.

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The Colombian took a great win at the Tour de Suisse and this stage looks ideal for him. He’s not any threat on GC so will be given the freedom. Furthermore, he’s put in a few probing attacks from the peloton on some of the mountain finishes, showing good intent. More importantly, he has a very good turn of speed from a reduced group so he can win from a sprint or solo.

Wout Poels.

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One of Sky’s key men in the second half of a GT, he could be sent up the road to mark satellite riders from rival teams. If the break gets a big advantage like I think it well, he definitely has the credentials to win from it. I don’t think anyone will be able to climb better than him, the question will be can they match him?

Jan Bakelants.

14-02-2016 La Mediterraneenne; Tappa 04 Bordighera; 2016, Ag2r La Mondiale; Bakelandts, Jan; Bordighera;

The Belgian has had a solid year so far, picking up a win way back in his first race of the season. Since then he’s plodded along so to say, but placed a rather unassuming 17th on GC at the Dauphiné. A very good result for him. He’s not featured personally so far this Tour but has done a lot of work for Bardet. Also, he recently became a father on the day of stage 11. He hasn’t been in the break yet but a stage like this would suit him and possibly act as a satellite rider for Bardet, although as I’ve said numerous times I think the break makes it. I’m not sure how long he’ll stay in the race, he may even leave on the next rest day. It would be some way to go out with a stage win!

Prediction

The break makes it, with Pantano coming home the winner. We get another race on two fronts with Froome being comfortable all day. He’ll come to the line with another two riders; Mollema and Yates. With the other GC riders splintered behind!

Betting

No idea of the odds as I’m writing this, I’ll be backing my three break selections. No wild stakes, but I’ll be favouring Pantano.

Hope you enjoyed the blog, there is a good chance I won’t see it until tomorrow but any feedback is great as usual. I’m also writing the stage 16 preview in advance just after this. I thought Monday was the rest day but it’s not. Annoying because there is no way I’ll manage to do anything on Sunday hungover and without a laptop. Also apologies if there are any mistakes in this, it’s currently half 12 on Friday night/Saturday morning and I still have Stage 16 to do. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.

TDF Stage 12 Preview: Montpellier -> “Mont Ventoux”

Today’s Recap

A real stop-start stage today. Echelon action followed by periods of the bunch sitting up, followed by more echelon action. It looked destined for a bunch sprint in the last 15km. That was until Tinkoff attacked into one of the corners and put it in the gutter. Sagan and Bodnar found themselves on the front and went for it. They were swiftly followed by a very proactive Froome, and a little less swiftly by Thomas who forged across the gap. Kristoff tried to get across but didn’t make it. The time difference shot out to around 25 seconds and was slowly reeled in after the other teams got organised. However, it was too little too late and Sagan held on for a great stage win. He really is the best World Champion we’ve had in a long time. Froome gained a valuable 12 seconds (6 on the stage plus the 6 bonus seconds) over his GC rivals.

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As for Kristoff, he won the bunch sprint behind for 4th place. I’m back to my Giro form now 😉 Moving onto tomorrow’s stage!

The Route

Flat, little bump then a mountain. Simple.

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Well, due to high winds, the riders won’t actually be going all the way up Mont Ventoux. Instead, they’ll be finishing at Chalet Reynard, which is roughly 6km before the end and conveniently marked out on the stage profile.

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Amazingly enough, changing the climb hasn’t altered the average gradient that drastically. It’s now 9.1% instead of the 8.8%. Either way, it’s still a brute. In fact, the shorter climb will have made it even more of an explosive effort. They don’t get that respite km of 5.5%. A few riders who would have struggled all the way up may fancy their chances more here. In theory, Sky’s mountain train shouldn’t be as effective here because of the steepness of the climb, but I’ll get back to that later.

How will the stage pan out?

Before the shortening of the Ventoux climb I would have said this was definitely a GC-winner kind of day. However, not reaching the summit has an impact on that I think. This is purely because they won’t have really won on “Mont Ventoux”. The prestige and all that goes with it won’t be there for the winner. Yes, they’ll have won a brutally tough end to a stage, but they didn’t make it all the way to the top alone. They won’t join the names such as Merckx, Poulidor, Virenque, Pantani etc. (although Froome already has that honour). Do modern cyclists think like that? I don’t know any of them personally to tell but I’m sure Wiggins would!

So do we get a breakaway take the win? Possibly.

What’s stopping it? The wind.

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Wind statistics for St-Rémy-de-Provence (just before the intermediate sprint point)

The average wind speed and gusts are predicted to be even higher tomorrow than they were today. Looks ideal for more crosswind action. With Sky exposing the weakness in Quintana’s armour, they may go full gas before they even reach Ventoux, hoping to shred the peloton and distance the Colombian. I’m sure the likes of BMC and possibly Trek might offer assistance, but it will be down to Sky if any splits are made. If they go at this fast pace, then the break has no chance.

If we do get a break, then look to the French riders, after all, it is Bastille Day. Pinot, Voeckler, Vuillermoz and Alaphilippe are all names that spring to mind. Out of those, I like the prospects of Alaphilippe the most. The young Frenchman has had a tough time as of late but the steep gradients of Ventoux suit him down to the ground. He shouldn’t be on Martin duty as the rest of the Etixx team should be able to protect the Irishman on the flat, the toughest part for him will be to join the break. If he gets in it, he could be tough to beat!

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If the pace is wild from the peloton then the key question will be: who makes it to the foot-slopes together?

Froome will be there. Dan Martin should be there. Porte & Van Garderen should be there. Mollema should be there. Kreuziger should be there.

These are the riders whose teams have shown their competencies in the wind, especially on today’s stage. As for the other riders, it will be luck of the draw if they make it. I would expect Movistar to not make the same mistakes tomorrow. They were very switched on at the start of the stage but got too relaxed in the final 20km. They’ll be tuned in from the start.

On form Froome has to start as favourite. He’s looked unbeatable all things considered. With it being a headwind finish, the likes of Yates and Martin will hope to follow him and out-sprint him near the top. Can they? If Froome really goes for it I don’t think they can.

Due to the head wind, this is where Sky’s mountain train can actually work for Froome on the steep gradients. If they just ride a reasonable tempo then no one can attack/ will want to attack because they’ll have to come out into the wind, wasting energy.

The only man who can follow (like he has on the other hill/mountain finishes) is Quintana. If they both make it to the bottom I fancy the Colombian to beat Froome. He needs to remind everyone what he is capable of. On the flat he just needs to glue himself on the back of the Sky rider’s wheel. Easier said than done!

With there being a TT the following day, I don’t think Sky/Froome will want to go too deep with their efforts on the flat in the cross winds, so all the contenders are more likely to make it to the bottom of the climb together. I’d say a 60/40 chance, but it could easily swing the other way!

Prediction

Very tough stage to call because of the conditions, I’m unsure if a break will make it or not. They certainly have more of a chance due to the climb length being reduced, but possibly will struggle to build up an advantage because of the wind. So I’m going to cop-out and say if we get a GC showdown, then Quintana wins.

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If we get a break make it all the way, pick a Frenchman out of the hat. I say Julian Alaphilippe makes it. I’m sure Carlton Kirby will be happy with that!

Betting

Should be a no bet day, but Alaphilippe’s price is too good to refuse.

Available at 200/1 with Paddy Power. (check other places when more prices get released)

0.25pt EW.

As Ray Winston says, “It’s all about the in-play”.

 

Hope you liked the blog. Tomorrow’s stage is definitely one for the cycling fan connoisseur with all of the varying outcomes and tactics. I hope we get a gripping days racing! How do you think it will go? GC/Reduced GC/Break? As always, any feedback is greatly appreciated. Anyway,

Those were My Two Spokes Worth.